1.The application of sequential analysis for continuous post-market vaccine safety surveillance
Zixuan LU ; Musu LI ; Jiahe PAN ; Yiwen WU ; Huilin LI ; Er YU ; Hongmei WO ; Shaowen TANG ; Yang ZHAO ; Juncheng DAI ; Honggang YI
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(3):514-518
To explore the application of sequential analysis in post-market safety dynamic surveillance of vaccines. Under the dynamic monitoring data of vaccines post-market approval, this research introduces the fundamental principles of maximizing sequential probability ratio test (MaxSPRT) and Bayesian sequential analysis, employing R software. Through an example of dynamic safety monitoring data of vaccines post-market approval, we analyze using the MaxSPRT and Bayesian sequential analysis. The MaxSPRT identified a safety signal in week 4 ( P<0.05), while Bayesian sequential analysis indicated that the 95% highest density interval for the RR value at week 4 is 1.13-3.27, suggesting the first appearance of a safety signal at week 4. The MaxSPRT and Bayesian sequential analysis effectively leverage continuously accumulating dynamic monitoring data, thereby serving as a valuable method for post-market safety surveillance of vaccines.
2.The application of sequential analysis for continuous post-market vaccine safety surveillance
Zixuan LU ; Musu LI ; Jiahe PAN ; Yiwen WU ; Huilin LI ; Er YU ; Hongmei WO ; Shaowen TANG ; Yang ZHAO ; Juncheng DAI ; Honggang YI
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(3):514-518
To explore the application of sequential analysis in post-market safety dynamic surveillance of vaccines. Under the dynamic monitoring data of vaccines post-market approval, this research introduces the fundamental principles of maximizing sequential probability ratio test (MaxSPRT) and Bayesian sequential analysis, employing R software. Through an example of dynamic safety monitoring data of vaccines post-market approval, we analyze using the MaxSPRT and Bayesian sequential analysis. The MaxSPRT identified a safety signal in week 4 ( P<0.05), while Bayesian sequential analysis indicated that the 95% highest density interval for the RR value at week 4 is 1.13-3.27, suggesting the first appearance of a safety signal at week 4. The MaxSPRT and Bayesian sequential analysis effectively leverage continuously accumulating dynamic monitoring data, thereby serving as a valuable method for post-market safety surveillance of vaccines.
3.Correlation between the liver injury and the expression of interleukin-10 in severe acute pancreatitis at high altitude: a rat experimental result
Haihong ZHU ; Musu PAN ; Wenjun ZHU ; Yamin GUO
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2018;30(11):1077-1082
Objective To observe the indexes of liver injury and the expression of inflammation-related factor interleukin-10 (IL-10) in rats with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), and to discuss the correlation between the expression of IL-10 and the related factors of liver injury in SAP rats at different altitudes. Methods 280 male Wistar rats with SPF grade aged 5 to 6 months were divided into four groups according to random number table with 70 rats in each group, and the rats were placed in different altitudes such as Xi'an (at an altitude of 1 027 m), Xining (at an altitude of 2 260 m), Xinghai (at an altitude of 3 300 m) and Wenquan (at an altitude of 3 950 m). The rats in each altitude were randomly divided into sham operation group (Sham group, n = 10) and SAP 1, 6, 12, 24 hours groups (all n = 15). SAP rat model was reproduced by injecting sodium cholate into the posterior membrane of pancreas, and the rats of Sham group were only turned pancreas over several times after opening the abdomen and then closed the abdomen. The rats were sacrificed at the corresponding time points after model reproduction in SAP groups, and rats in Sham group were sacrificed at 6 hours after sham operation. At the same time, the abdominal aorta blood was harvested, and the contents of serum amylase (AMY), alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) were determined by automatic biochemical analyzer. Liver tissues were harvested, and the expression level of IL-10 was determined by immunohistochemistry. Pancreatic tissues were harvested, and hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining was performed to observe the pathological changes under light microscopy. The correlations among the indicators were analyzed by Pearson correlation. Results At different altitudes, no significant abnormality was found in the pancreas of Sham group, but significant pathological changes were found in the pancreas of all SAP groups, mainly manifested as pancreatic acinar swelling, inflammatory cell infiltration, vascular congestion and hemorrhage, acinar cell degeneration and dissolution, changes in glandular lobule structure, peri-pancreatic fat necrosis, and continuous aggravation with the increasing of time and altitude. At the same altitude, the pancreatic pathology score, the serum AMY, ALT and AST levels, and the hepatic IL-10 expression were all significantly increased in all the SAP groups as compared with those in Sham group, and they were continuously increased with time. In Sham group, there was no statistically significant difference in pancreatic pathology score, AMY, ALT, AST, or IL-10 level among different altitudes. At the corresponding time point after model reproduction, the pancreatic pathology score, AMY, ALT, AST and IL-10 levels in the SAP groups were also shown a continuous rising tendency with altitude increase, and the differences in above parameters of SAP 24 hours group in Wenquan area were statistically significant as compared with those of Sham group [pathology score: 11.06±0.94 vs. 0.23±0.15, AMY (mmol/L): 2 706.6±208.3 vs. 336.5±94.3, ALT (U/L): 267.00±5.37 vs. 52.00±4.84, AST (U/L): 465.88±11.02 vs. 139.00±11.61, IL-10 (A value): 0.579±0.006 vs. 0.281±0.006, all P < 0.05]. It was shown by correlation analysis that IL-10 of SAP rats at different altitudes was positively correlated with pancreatic pathology score, AMY, ALT and AST, the correlation coefficient (r value) between IL-10 and the above indicators in the Wenquan area with the highest altitude was 0.959, 0.928, 0.977, 0.983, respectively (all P < 0.01). Conclusions The severity of SAP rats was positively correlated with altitude. IL-10 was involved in the pathological expression process of SAP liver damage, and its expression level was positively correlated with altitude and the degree of SAP liver damage.

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