Objective To investigate the risk factors for early neurological deterioration in mild acute ischemic stroke，to construct a clinical predictive model，and to perform internal validation of this model. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed for 739 patients with mild acute ischemic stroke who were admitted to Department of Neurology，Kuntong Hospital of Zunhua，from October 2020 to December 2023，and they were randomly divided into a training set with 534 patients （72.3%） and a validation set with 205 patients （27.7%） at a ratio of 7∶3. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed for the training set to determine the risk factors for early neurological deterioration in mild acute ischemic stroke. A clinical predictive model was constructed，and internal validation was performed in terms of discriminatory ability，calibration，and clinical decision making. A nomogram was plotted. Results The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that female sex （OR=1.87，95% CI 1.14~3.09，P=0.014），time window ≤6 hours （OR=3.10，95%CI 1.56~6.19，P=0.001），a baseline NIHSS score of 2 points （OR=3.72，95%CI 1.30~10.61，P=0.014），a baseline NIHSS score of 3 points （OR=4.24，95%CI 1.45~12.35，P=0.008），a TOAST classification of large artery atherosclerosis （OR=3.88，95%CI 2.20~6.83，P<0.001），and the responsible arteries of the basilar artery，the middle cerebral artery，and the internal carotid artery （OR=8.39，95%CI 2.28~30.85，P=0.001； OR=6.22，95%CI 1.78~21.71，P=0.004； OR=5.38，95%CI 1.15~25.13，P=0.032） were independent risk factors for early neurological deterioration in mild acute ischemic stroke. The clinical predictive model constructed showed a moderate discriminatory ability （AUC>0.7），good calibration （P>0.05） in the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test），and good clinical benefits in both the training set and the validation set. Conclusion This clinical predictive model can effectively predict the onset of early neurological deterioration in mild acute ischemic stroke and guide clinicians to make decisions，and therefore，it holds promise for clinical application.
Nomograms

INTRODUCTION

Neonatal sepsis is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality, particularly among preterm infants, and remains a pressing global health concern. Early-onset neonatal sepsis is particularly challenging to diagnose due to its nonspecific clinical presentation, necessitating effective and timely diagnostic tools to reduce adverse outcomes. Traditional methods, such as microbial cultures, are slow and often unavailable in resource-limited settings. This study aimed to develop a robust multivariable risk prediction model tailored to improve early detection of Early Onset Sepsis (EOS) among preterm infants in the Philippines.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis at a tertiary hospital in the Philippines using data from 1,354 preterm infants admitted between January 2019 and June 2024. Logistic regression models were employed, and predictors were selected through reverse stepwise elimination. Two scoring methods were developed: one based on beta coefficients divided by standard errors and another standardized to a total score of 100. The models were validated using Receiver Operator Characteristic curve analysis.

RESULTS

Version 1 of the scoring model demonstrated an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.991, with a sensitivity of 90.91% and a specificity of 98.10%. Version 2 achieved an AUC of 0.999, with a sensitivity of 96.4% and a specificity of 92.44%.

CONCLUSIONS

The developed models provide a reliable, region specific tool for early detection of neonatal sepsis. Further validation across diverse populations and the integration of emerging diagnostic technologies, such as biomarkers and artificial intelligence, are warranted to enhance their applicability and accuracy.

Human ; Bacteria ; Infant: 1-23 Months ; Neonatal Sepsis ; Logistic Models ; Infant, Premature ; Philippines

OBJECTIVES

To determine if there is a difference in the prevalence of abnormal spirometry in female adult residents of OLBAC who have significant and nonsignificant exposure to biomass fuel smoke

METHODS

A convenience sample of 54 adult female residents of OLBAC in San Mateo, Rizal, will be recruited in this analytical cross-sectional study. After enrollment, they will undergo a single spirometry procedure to determine their lung function status. The primary data to be collected from the experimental groups are FEV1, FVC and FEV1/ FVC ratio. The data will undergo descriptive and inferential analysis, and the lung function variable will be analyzed with logistic regression to account for confounding variables.

EXPECTED RESULTS

The descriptive data analysis will determine the mean values of lung function parameters (FEV1 and FVC) where long exposures may lead to an abnormal FVC compared to short or no exposure. The results in the inferential analysis may indicate a negative association between length of biomass fuel exposure and percentage predicted FVC among the sample, suggesting that more prolonged exposure to biomass fuel increases the risk of impaired lung function.

CONCLUSION

 

Human ; Female ; Adult: 25-44 Yrs Old ; Young Adult: 19-24 Yrs Old ; Adult ; Biomass ; Cross-sectional Studies ; Female ; Logistic Models ; Regression (psychology) ; Smoke ; Volition ; World Health Organization ; Spirometry

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the predominant cause of mortality in China. However, the mechanisms linking sarcopenia to CVD remain poorly understood, particularly in normal-weight populations. Individuals with the absence of overweight or obesity may tend to experience missed opportunities for timely intervention. This study aimed to investigate the longitudinal association between sarcopenia and incidence of new-onset CVD in a normal-weight population, and to examine the mediating effect of functional limitation in this relationship. METHODS: We conducted a closed-cohort analysis using a nationwide sample of 4,147 middle-aged and older adults with normal weight in China. We performed Cox proportional hazards regression analysis to explore the associations of baseline sarcopenia with incident CVD. The difference method was applied to estimate the mediation proportion of functional limitation in this association. RESULTS: Over a mean follow-up period of 7.62 years, CVD occurred in 835 participants. In the multivariable-adjusted Cox model, individuals with sarcopenia exhibited a significantly higher likelihood of developing incident CVD compared to those without sarcopenia (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.45, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.21-1.73, P < 0.001). Similar associations were observed for the incidence of heart disease and stroke. Functional limitation accounted for approximately 15.0% of the total effect of sarcopenia on incident CVD (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Sarcopenia exerts both direct and indirect effects on incident CVD among middle-aged and older adults who are normal weight, with functional limitation serving as a significant mediator. Interventions targeting both sarcopenia and functional limitation may offer a promising strategy for enhancing cardiovascular health in this population.
Humans ; Sarcopenia/complications* ; China/epidemiology* ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Cardiovascular Diseases/etiology* ; Aged ; Incidence ; Cohort Studies ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Risk Factors ; Aged, 80 and over ; Longitudinal Studies

BACKGROUND: Depression among older adults is an important public health issue, and air and noise pollution have been found to contribute to exacerbation of depressive symptoms. This study examined the association of exposure to air and noise pollutants with clinically-newly-diagnosed depressive disorder. The mediating role of individual pro-inflammatory markers was explored. METHODS: We linked National Health Insurance claim data with 2998 healthy community-dwellers aged 55 and above who participated in the Healthy Aging Longitudinal Study between 2009 and 2013. Newly diagnosed depressive disorder was identified using diagnostic codes from the medical claim data. Pollutants were estimated using nationwide land use regression, including PM_2.5 and PM₁₀, carbon monoxide, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and road traffic noise. Cox proportional hazard models were employed to examine the association between pollutants and newly developed depressive disorders. The mediating effect of serum pro-inflammatory biomarkers on the relationship was examined. RESULTS: Among the 2998 participants, 209 had newly diagnosed depressive disorders. In adjusted Cox proportional hazard models, one interquartile range increase in PM_2.5 (8.53 µg/m³) was associated with a 17.5% increased hazard of developing depressive disorders. Other air pollutants and road traffic noise were not linearly associated with depressive disorder incidence. Levels of serum tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 mediated the relationship between PM_2.5 and survival time to newly onset depressive disorder. CONCLUSION PM_2.5 is related to an increased risk of newly developed depressive disorder among middle-aged and older adults, and the association is partially mediated by the pro-inflammatory marker TNF-R1.
Humans ; Particulate Matter/analysis* ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Longitudinal Studies ; Aged ; Incidence ; Air Pollutants/analysis* ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects* ; Taiwan/epidemiology* ; Receptors, Tumor Necrosis Factor, Type I/blood* ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Biomarkers/blood* ; Depression/epidemiology* ; Aged, 80 and over ; Depressive Disorder/chemically induced* ; Risk Factors ; Air Pollution/adverse effects*

OBJECTIVES: According to the World Health Organization (WHO), infertility rates have been steadily rising worldwide. Identifying risk factors for contrast agent reflux into the myometrium during hysterosalpingo-contrast sonography (HyCoSy) is of clinical significance in reducing this complication and improving infertility treatment. However, there is currently no standardized pre-evaluation method for predicting intra-myometrial contrast reflux, with clinical assessment often relying on physician experience and patient symptoms. This study aims to identify imaging risk factors for contrast agent reflux into the myometrium using four-dimensional (4D) HyCoSy and to construct a nomogram-based predictive model to assist in clinical decision-making. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 1 274 infertile women who underwent 4D HyCoSy at the Women and Children's Hospital of Hunan and the the Third Xiangya Hospital of Central South University from January 1, 2020, to December 15, 2022. Patients were divided into a reflux group (n=234) and a non-reflux group (n=1 040) based on the presence of intra-myometrial contrast reflux. Univariate and multivariable Logistic regression analyses were used to identify significant predictors, which were then used to construct a nomogram model. Internal validation was performed using 500 bootstrap resamples. RESULTS: The age of the reflux group was significantly higher than that of the non-reflux group [(31.82±5.27) years vs (30.66±4.83) years, P=0.001 1]. Primary infertility was more common in the non-reflux group (50.96%), while secondary infertility dominated in the reflux group (76.50%), with 72.65% having a history of gynecological surgery (P<0.001). Abnormal menstrual volume and discomfort during the procedure were more common in the reflux group, while the non-reflux group tolerated higher contrast agent doses (P<0.001). Imaging differences included endometrial thickness, tubal wall smoothness, and peritoneal contrast dispersion, with the non-reflux group showing thicker endometrium and smoother, more patent tubes. The nomogram model yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.854, indicating good predictive performance. The AUC of the decision curve analysis (DCA) for internal validation of the model was 0.737. When the threshold probability for contrast agent reflux into the myometrium ranged from 0.05 to 0.95, the maximum net benefit reached 0.18. The net benefit of applying the nomogram predictive model exceeded that of either full intervention or no intervention, indicating that the model demonstrates good clinical predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS The nomogram model, based on infertility type, endometrial thickness, contrast agent dose, and discomfort symptoms, effectively predicts intra-myometrial contrast agent reflux after 4D HyCoSy. It provides a valuable tool for clinicians to implement early preventive measures and reduce the risk of contrast leakage and associated complications.
Humans ; Female ; Nomograms ; Contrast Media/adverse effects* ; Retrospective Studies ; Adult ; Ultrasonography/methods* ; Hysterosalpingography/methods* ; Infertility, Female/diagnostic imaging* ; Myometrium/diagnostic imaging* ; Risk Factors

OBJECTIVES: Multiple myeloma (MM) is a hematologically malignant clonal plasma cell disease. This study aims to explore the association between immunophenotypes and prognosis in patients with MM, to determine whether the expression of CD45 and CD200 is related to the prognosis of newly diagnosed MM (NDMM) patients, and to evaluate the significance of the combined expression of CD45 and CD200 in NDMM. METHODS: A total of 123 NDMM patients admitted to Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University from July 2015 to August 2019 were enrolled. Five key immunophenotypic markers (including CD38, CD138, CD45, CD56, and CD200) were screened through flow cytometry and identified using random forest analysis and univariate Cox regression analysis. Patients were divided into 3 groups: Group A, CD45 and CD200 double-positive; Group B, CD45 or CD200 single-positive; Group C, CD45 and CD200 double-negative. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to analyze overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) across groups. Multivariate Cox regression was performed to evaluate prognostic factors, and a nomogram was constructed based on these results. RESULTS: The OS and PFS of single-positive groups for CD38, CD138, CD45, CD56, and CD200 were all shorter than those of their respective single-negative groups (all P<0.05). Significant differences were observed in OS (P<0.001) and PFS (P=0.001) among Groups A, B, and C. Group A had shorter OS and PFS (all P=0.001) compared to the Group B+C (cases from Group B and Group C were combined). CD45 and CD200 double-positive was an independent prognostic factor for NDMM [hazard ratio (HR)=2.178, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.048 to 4.529; P=0.037]. The nomogram and calibration curves constructed from multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated good concordance (concordance index=0.706; 95% CI 0.661 to 0.751). CONCLUSIONS NDMM patients with double-positive expression of CD45 and CD200 have significantly shorter OS and PFS. Compared with the use of either marker alone, the combined assessment of CD45 and CD200 may provide better prognostic stratification for MM patients.
Humans ; Multiple Myeloma/metabolism* ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Antigens, CD/metabolism* ; Prognosis ; Leukocyte Common Antigens/metabolism* ; Aged ; Adult ; Immunophenotyping ; Nomograms ; Biomarkers, Tumor ; Clinical Relevance

OBJECTIVES: The Charlson comorbidity index reflects overall comorbidity burden and has been applied in cardiovascular medicine. However, its role in predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) complicated by ventricular arrhythmias (VA) remains unclear. This study aims to evaluate the predictive value of the Charlson comorbidity index in this setting and to construct a nomogram model for early risk identification and individualized management to improve outcomes. METHODS: Using the open-access critical care database MIMIC-IV (Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV), we identified intensive care unit (ICU) patients diagnosed with AMI complicated by VA. Patients were grouped according to in-hospital survival. The predictive performance of the Charlson comorbidity index and other clinical variables for in-hospital mortality was analyzed. Key predictors were selected using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, followed by multivariable Logistic regression. A nomogram model was constructed based on the regression results. Model performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration plots. RESULTS: A total of 1 492 patients with AMI and VA were included, of whom 340 died and 1 152 survived during hospitalization. Significant differences were observed between survivors and non-survivors in sex distribution, vital signs, comorbidity burden, organ function, and laboratory parameters (all P<0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) of the Charlson comorbidity index for predicting in-hospital mortality was 0.712 (95% CI 0.681 to 0.742), significantly higher than albumin, international normalized ratio (INR), hemoglobin, body temperature, and platelet count (all P<0.001), but comparable to Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (P>0.05). LASSO regression identified seven key predictors: the Charlson comorbidity index (quartile groups: T1, <6; T2, ≥6-<7; T3, ≥7-<9; T4, ≥9), ventricular fibrillation, age, systolic blood pressure, respiratory rate, body temperature, and SOFA score. Multivariate Logistic regression showed that compared with T1, mortality risk increased significantly in T2 (OR=1.996, 95% CI 1.135 to 3.486, P=0.016), T3 (OR=3.386, 95% CI 2.192 to 5.302, P<0.001), and T4 (OR=5.679, 95% CI 3.711 to 8.842, P<0.001). Age (OR=1.056, P<0.001), respiratory rate (OR=1.069, P<0.001), SOFA score (OR=1.223, P<0.001), and ventricular fibrillation (OR=2.174, P<0.001) were independent risk factors, while systolic blood pressure (OR=0.984, P<0.001) and body temperature (OR=0.648, P<0.001) were protective factors. The nomogram incorporating these predictors achieved an AUC of 0.849 (95% CI 0.826 to 0.871) with high discrimination and good calibration (mean absolute error=0.014). CONCLUSIONS The Charlson comorbidity index is an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality in AMI patients complicated by VA, with performance comparable to the SOFA score. The nomogram model based on the Charlson comorbidity index and additional clinical variables effectively estimates mortality risk and provides a valuable reference for clinical decision-making.
Humans ; Nomograms ; Hospital Mortality ; Myocardial Infarction/complications* ; Male ; Female ; Comorbidity ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Arrhythmias, Cardiac/complications* ; ROC Curve ; Intensive Care Units

OBJECTIVES: Global epidemiological data indicate that 20% to 30% of intensive care unit (ICU) sepsis patients progress to deep vein thrombosis (DVT) due to coagulopathy, with an associated mortality rate of 25% to 40%. Existing prognostic tools have limitations. This study aims to develop and validate nomogram and machine learning models to predict in-hospital mortality in sepsis patients with DVT and assess their clinical applicability. METHODS: This multicenter retrospective study drew on data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV; n=2 235), the eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD; n=1 274), and the Patient Admission Dataset from the ICU of Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University (CSU-XYS-ICU; n=107). MIMIC-IV was split into a training set (n=1 584) and internal validation set (n=651), with the remaining datasets used for external validation. Predictors were selected via least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), and a nomogram model was constructed. An extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was used to build the machine learning model. Model performance was assessed by the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, Brier score, decision curve analysis (DCA), and net reclassification improvement index (NRI). RESULTS: Five key predictors, age [odds ratio (OR)=1.02, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.03, P<0.001], minimum activated partial thromboplastin (APTT; OR=1.09, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.11, P<0.001), maximum APTT (OR=1.01, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.01, P<0.001), maximum lactate (OR=1.56, 95% CI 1.39 to 1.75, P<0.001), and maximum serum creatinine (OR=2.03, 95% CI 1.79 to 2.30, P<0.001), were included in the nomogram. The model showed robust performance in internal validation (C-index=0.845, 95% CI 0.811 to 0.879) and external validation (eICU-CRD: C-index=0.827, 95% CI 0.800 to 0.854; CSU-XYS-ICU: C-index=0.779, 95% CI 0.687 to 0.871). Calibration curves indicated good agreement between predicted and observed outcomes (Brier score<0.25), and DCA confirmed clinical benefit. The XGBoost model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.982 (95% CI 0.969 to 0.985) in the training set, but performance declined in external validation (eICU-CRD, AUC=0.825, 95% CI 0.817 to 0.861; CSU-XYS-ICU, AUC=0.766, 95% CI 0.700 to 0.873), though it remained above clinical thresholds. Net reclassification improvement was slightly lower for XGBoost compared with the nomogram (NRI=0.58). CONCLUSIONS Both the nomogram and XGBoost models effectively predict in-hospital mortality in sepsis patients with DVT. However, the nomogram offers superior generalizability and clinical usability. Its visual scoring system provides a quantitative tool for identifying high-risk patients and implementing individualized interventions.
Humans ; Sepsis/complications* ; Machine Learning ; Nomograms ; Venous Thrombosis/complications* ; Retrospective Studies ; Hospital Mortality ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Intensive Care Units ; Prognosis ; Bayes Theorem

OBJECTIVES: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) poses a major threat to global health. Evaluating atherosclerosis in asymptomatic individuals can help identify those at high risk of CVD. This study aims to establish an individualized nomogram prediction model to estimate the risk of vascular plaque formation in asymptomatic individuals. METHODS: A total of 5 655 participants who underwent CVD screening at the Health Management Center of The Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, between January 2022 and June 2024 we retrospectively enrolled. Using simple random sampling, participants were divided into a training set (n=4 524) and a validation set (n=1 131) in an 8꞉2 ratio. Demographic and clinical data were collected and compared between groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent factors associated with vascular plaques and to construct a nomogram prediction model. The predictive performance and clinical utility of the model were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: The mean age of participants was 52 years old. There were 3 400 males (60.12%). The overall detection rate of vascular plaque in the screening population was 49.87% (2 820/5 655). No statistically significant differences were observed in clinical indicators between the training and validation sets (all P>0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis identified age, systolic blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein (HDL), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), lipoprotein(a), male sex, smoking history, hypertension history, and diabetes history as independent risk factors for vascular plaque in asymptomatic individuals (all P<0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram model for predicting vascular plaque risk were 0.778 (95% CI 0.765 to 0.791, P<0.001) in the training set and 0.760 (95% CI 0.732 to 0.787, P<0.001) in the validation set. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test indicated good model calibration (training set: P=0.628; validation set: P=0.561). The calibration curve plotted using the Bootstrap method demonstrated good agreement between predicted probabilities and actual probabilities. DCA showed that the nomogram provided a clinical net benefit for predicting vascular plaque risk when the threshold probability ranged from 0.02 to 0.99. CONCLUSIONS The nomogram prediction model for vascular plaque risk, constructed using readily available and cost-effective physical examination indicators, exhibited good predictive performance. This model can assist in the early identification and intervention of asymptomatic individuals at high risk for cardiovascular disease.
Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Female ; Nomograms ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk Factors ; Plaque, Atherosclerotic/diagnosis* ; Aged ; Adult ; Physical Examination ; Logistic Models ; Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology* ; ROC Curve