1.A simulation study for handling two-way treatment switching in rare event scenarios
Wenkai WU ; Qiao HE ; Minghong YAO ; Jiayue XU ; Wen WANG ; Xin SUN
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(2):334-344
Objective:Drug safety assessments based on real-world data are often challenged by both treatment switching and rare events. In this study, we used statistical simulations to investigate the effects of switching rates and treatment effects on the statistical performance of commonly used analytical strategies and methods under overlapping scenarios of treatment switching and rare events.Methods:The simulation scenario was set up as a bidirectional treatment switching (allowing the control group to switch to the treatment group and the treatment group to switch to the control group), and the event rates were set at approximately 2%, 5%, and 20%. Different simulation scenarios were generated with sufficient sample size to consider switching rate and relative treatment effect. The simulated datasets were analyzed using three types of analysis strategy, i.e. intention to treat (ITT), per protocol (PP), and as treated (AT). The performance of five indicators, namely percentage bias, mean square error, empirical standard error, coverage, and rejection rate, were compared among the different methods in different scenarios, and recommendations for method selection were given.Results:In terms of analytical strategies and methods, AT analysis were relatively optimal in terms of percentage bias and accuracy, followed by PP analysis and ITT analysis. When the relative treatment effects converged (e.g. HR=1.0), both the ITT analysis and the time-dependent AT approaches (marginal structural model, time-dependent Cox regression model or time-dependent propensity score matching) performed well; when the relative treatment effects were small (e.g. HR=0.8), the marginal structural model was the most optimal; when the relative treatment effects were large (e.g. HR=0.6 or 0.4), the approaches of using a censored treatment for switchers in the AT analysis were more accurate. In addition, the time-dependent AT approaches had the highest rejection rate when there was a difference in treatment effect between the two groups, and the ITT analysis had the lowest rejection rate. Conclusions:For the dual challenges of bidirectional switching and rare events in real-world drug safety evaluations, adequate sample size is a prerequisite for accurate estimation of treatment effects, while switching rates and effect sizes of switched drugs might also affect estimation accuracy. Appropriate strategies and methods should be selected for the analysis. It is necessary to consider whether the event is rare or not, the switching rate and the expected treatment effect size of the two types of treatment to select appropriate analysis strategies and methods.
2.Promoting international acceptance of clinical studies about traditional Chinese medicine interventions
Ling LI ; Xiaochao LUO ; Jiali LIU ; Minghong YAO ; Yanmei LIU ; Yu MA ; Luqi HUANG ; Xin SUN
Science of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;3(1):1-7
Promoting the international acceptance of clinical studies about traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) interventions is a key strategy for internationalization of TCM. However, the complexities of TCM interventions—in terms of the theories, practice patterns, and components—pose challenges to the design and implementation of clinical studies that are well accepted by the international community. This article summarized the current status of clinical studies about TCM interventions that were published in international journals, explored underlying barriers hindering the international acceptance, and discussed potential strategies for future development.
3.Promoting international acceptance of clinical studies about traditional Chinese medicine interventions
Ling LI ; Xiaochao LUO ; Jiali LIU ; Minghong YAO ; Yanmei LIU ; Yu MA ; Luqi HUANG ; Xin SUN
Science of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;3(1):1-7
Promoting the international acceptance of clinical studies about traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) interventions is a key strategy for internationalization of TCM. However, the complexities of TCM interventions—in terms of the theories, practice patterns, and components—pose challenges to the design and implementation of clinical studies that are well accepted by the international community. This article summarized the current status of clinical studies about TCM interventions that were published in international journals, explored underlying barriers hindering the international acceptance, and discussed potential strategies for future development.
4.Promoting international acceptance of clinical studies about traditional Chinese medicine interventions
Ling LI ; Xiaochao LUO ; Jiali LIU ; Minghong YAO ; Yanmei LIU ; Yu MA ; Luqi HUANG ; Xin SUN
Science of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;3(1):1-7
Promoting the international acceptance of clinical studies about traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) interventions is a key strategy for internationalization of TCM. However, the complexities of TCM interventions—in terms of the theories, practice patterns, and components—pose challenges to the design and implementation of clinical studies that are well accepted by the international community. This article summarized the current status of clinical studies about TCM interventions that were published in international journals, explored underlying barriers hindering the international acceptance, and discussed potential strategies for future development.
5.A simulation study for handling two-way treatment switching in rare event scenarios
Wenkai WU ; Qiao HE ; Minghong YAO ; Jiayue XU ; Wen WANG ; Xin SUN
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(2):334-344
Objective:Drug safety assessments based on real-world data are often challenged by both treatment switching and rare events. In this study, we used statistical simulations to investigate the effects of switching rates and treatment effects on the statistical performance of commonly used analytical strategies and methods under overlapping scenarios of treatment switching and rare events.Methods:The simulation scenario was set up as a bidirectional treatment switching (allowing the control group to switch to the treatment group and the treatment group to switch to the control group), and the event rates were set at approximately 2%, 5%, and 20%. Different simulation scenarios were generated with sufficient sample size to consider switching rate and relative treatment effect. The simulated datasets were analyzed using three types of analysis strategy, i.e. intention to treat (ITT), per protocol (PP), and as treated (AT). The performance of five indicators, namely percentage bias, mean square error, empirical standard error, coverage, and rejection rate, were compared among the different methods in different scenarios, and recommendations for method selection were given.Results:In terms of analytical strategies and methods, AT analysis were relatively optimal in terms of percentage bias and accuracy, followed by PP analysis and ITT analysis. When the relative treatment effects converged (e.g. HR=1.0), both the ITT analysis and the time-dependent AT approaches (marginal structural model, time-dependent Cox regression model or time-dependent propensity score matching) performed well; when the relative treatment effects were small (e.g. HR=0.8), the marginal structural model was the most optimal; when the relative treatment effects were large (e.g. HR=0.6 or 0.4), the approaches of using a censored treatment for switchers in the AT analysis were more accurate. In addition, the time-dependent AT approaches had the highest rejection rate when there was a difference in treatment effect between the two groups, and the ITT analysis had the lowest rejection rate. Conclusions:For the dual challenges of bidirectional switching and rare events in real-world drug safety evaluations, adequate sample size is a prerequisite for accurate estimation of treatment effects, while switching rates and effect sizes of switched drugs might also affect estimation accuracy. Appropriate strategies and methods should be selected for the analysis. It is necessary to consider whether the event is rare or not, the switching rate and the expected treatment effect size of the two types of treatment to select appropriate analysis strategies and methods.
6.Development of inflammation and coagulation disorders in sepsis
Yuanlu HOU ; Ruru ZHAO ; Lei GAO ; Qifeng LI ; Zheng YAO ; Minghong LI
Acta Laboratorium Animalis Scientia Sinica 2024;32(2):230-237
Objective To investigate changes in coagulation function and inflammation levels during sepsis.Methods A rat model of sepsis was established using the multiple infection sepsis model(MIM)based on cecal ligation and puncture.Forty-eight male Sprague-Dawley rats were assigned randomly to the following groups:control group,sham group,4 h sepsis group,8 h sepsis group,12 h sepsis group,and 16 h sepsis group(n=8 per group).Inflammatory markers and coagulation-related indicators were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and coagulation analysis.Results(1)Lipopolysaccharide(LPS)and interleukin-6(IL-6)levels were significantly higher in the model rats at all time points compared with the sham group(P<0.001).LPS and IL-6 levels increased gradually with disease progression,with no further changes in LPS after 12 hours.(2)Prothrombin time(PT)was significantly prolonged in the middle and late stages of the sepsis model,starting from 8,compared with the sham group(P<0.01).(3)Partially activated prothrombin time(APTT)time was significantly prolonged in the 8,12,and 16 h groups compared with the sham group(P<0.05,P<0.01).APTT gradually lengthened from 8 h,but approached control levels thereafter.(4)Fibrinogen(Fbg)content was significantly higher in all sepsis groups,except for the 8 h group,compared with the sham group(P<0.01).(5)Fibrin degradation products(FDP)differed significantly between the control and sham groups(P<0.01),but not between the sham and sepsis groups.(6)Antithrombin-Ⅲ(AT-Ⅲ)levels decreased significantly throughout each stage of sepsis progression compared with the sham group(P<0.01),and AT-Ⅲ showed a downward trend with the course of disease,with significant differences among the 4,8,and 16 h groups.Conclusions The MIM rat model can reflect the development of inflammatory and blood coagulation disorders and their relationship during the course of sepsis,and may thus provide a good foundation for further research into the disease course of sepsis.
7.Risk signals mining for Fluocinolone acetonide intravitreal implants based on Hainan Province Franchised Drug Monitoring System and FAERS
Huiqing MIAO ; Kai LIN ; Minghong YAO ; Lijun LIN
China Pharmacy 2024;35(12):1505-1510
OBJECTIVE To explore the risk signals of Fluocinolone acetonide intravitreal implants and promote safe and rational drug use for patients. METHODS Based on the data from the Hainan Province Franchised Drug Adverse Reaction Monitoring Subsystem (hereinafter referred to as the “Franchised Drug Monitoring System”) and the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS), the adverse drug reaction (ADR)/adverse drug event (ADE) reports of Fluocinolone acetonide intravitreal implants were coded by using system organ classification and preferred terminology, and relevant patient information was collected. Risk signal mining was carried out by using the reporting odds ratio (ROR) method and the comprehensive standards method of the UK Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (hereinafter referred to as the “MHRA method”). RESULTS Among the 72 reports of Fluocinolone acetonide intravitreal implants received by the Franchised Drug Monitoring System, the ratio of male to female was 1∶1.4, the patient’s age was mainly distributed between 18 and 64 years old; ADR/ADE affected 5 systemic organs, with eye organ diseases accounting for 87.7%; among them, there were 9 new and general ADR reports (12.5%) and 4 severe ADR reports (5.6%); ROR method and MHRA method both identified three risk signals: cataracts, glaucoma, and high intraocular pressure. Among the 244 reports received by the FAERS database, the ratio of male to female was 1∶1.5; ADR/ADE damage affected 10 systemic organs, with 46.1% suffering from various injuries, poisoning, and operational complications, and 32.0% suffering from product problems; there were 20 severe ADR reports (8.2%); ROR method and MHRA method both identified 19 risk signals, including implantation complications, medication system issues, etc. CONCLUSIONS When using Fluocinolone acetonide intravitreal implants in clinical practice, in addition to paying attention to eye ADR/ADE such as high intraocular pressure, cataracts, and glaucoma, attention should also be paid to the potential risks caused by ADE due to product quality and unreasonable use.
8.Projected burden of stroke in China through 2050.
Minghong YAO ; Yan REN ; Yulong JIA ; Jiayue XU ; Yuning WANG ; Kang ZOU ; Xin SUN
Chinese Medical Journal 2023;136(13):1598-1605
BACKGROUND:
Stroke is the leading cause of death in China, and predicting the stroke burden could provide essential information guiding the setting of medium- and long-term health policies and priorities. The study aimed to project trends associated with stroke burden in China through 2050, not only in terms of incidence and mortality but also for prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).
METHODS:
Data on stroke rates in incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs in China between 1990 and 2019 were obtained from a recent Global Burden of Disease study. Demographic-specific trends in rates over time were estimated using three models: the loglinear model, the Lee-Carter model, and a functional time series model. The mean absolute percentage error and the root mean squared error were used for model selection. Projections up to 2050 were estimated using the best fitting model. United Nations population data were used to project the absolute numbers through 2050.
RESULTS:
From 2019 to 2050, the crude rates for all measures of the stroke burden are projected to increase continuously among both men and women. We project that compared with those in 2019, the incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs because of stroke in China in 2050 will increase by 55.58%, 119.16%, 72.15%, and 20.04%, respectively; the corresponding increases in number were 2.19, 34.27, 1.58, and 9.21 million. The age-standardized rate is projected to substantially decline for incidence (8.94%), death (40.37%), and DALYs (43.47%), but the age-standardized prevalence rate is predicted to increase by 10.82%. By 2050, the burden of stroke among the population aged ≥65 years will increase significantly: by 104.70% for incidence, by 218.48% for prevalence, by 100.00% for death, and by 58.93% for DALYs.
CONCLUSIONS
With the aging population in China increasing over the next three decades, the burden of stroke will be markedly increased. Continuous efforts are needed to improve stroke health care and secondary prevention, especially for older adults.
Male
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Humans
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Female
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Aged
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Cost of Illness
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Quality-Adjusted Life Years
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Stroke/epidemiology*
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Incidence
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Prevalence
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China/epidemiology*
9.The special consideration for using the real-world data as external control in clinical evaluation
Yuning WANG ; Minghong YAO ; Yan REN ; Jiayue XU ; Yulong JIA ; Kai LIN ; Yaohua LI ; Chunmin WEI ; Xin SUN
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2023;44(2):335-340
Randomized controlled trials (RCT) have long been considered the gold standard for assessing clinical efficacy. However, RCT are inappropriate for some diseases due to related ethical issues and costs, such as rare diseases that are seriously life-threatening but without adequate treatment. Using real world data (RWD) as external control for RCT could make recruitment less complicated and reduce time and cost. This paper introduces common application scenarios, data sources, study design, basic principles, and statistical methods of RWD as an external control based on the latest guidelines related to RWD and combined with our team's previous research experience. This study could provide references for scholars and sponsors who want to conduct RWD research.
10.Real-world data studies of medical products in the context of special healthcare policy: study designs and key considerations
Minghong YAO ; Yulong JIA ; Yan REN ; Yanmei LIU ; Kang ZOU ; Kai LIN ; Ning ZHU ; Xin SUN
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2021;42(7):1306-1311
Boao Lecheng International Medical Tourism Pilot Area is the only administrative area in China where the pilot application of real-world data is performed. Based on the special healthcare policy in Boao Lecheng, conducting real-world data study to provide real-world evidence for the clinical evaluations and approvals of innovated medical products has become an important field that supports the reform of China's evaluation and approval system of medical products. Trustworthy real-world evidence needs to rely on both high-quality real-world data and reasonable and rigorous study designs. Based on the real-world data research guidelines and specifications issued by relevant academic research and regulatory authorities both at home and abroad, combined with the special policy environment of Boao Lecheng and previous practice experience, this paper summarizes the study designs of real world data in Boao Lecheng and discusses the key considerations of different study design in the context of special healthcare policies in Boao Lecheng in order to provide reference for the further study of real-world data.

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