1.Clinical course, causes of worsening, and outcomes of severe ischemic stroke: A prospective multicenter cohort study.
Simiao WU ; Yanan WANG ; Ruozhen YUAN ; Meng LIU ; Xing HUA ; Linrui HUANG ; Fuqiang GUO ; Dongdong YANG ; Zuoxiao LI ; Bihua WU ; Chun WANG ; Jingfeng DUAN ; Tianjin LING ; Hao ZHANG ; Shihong ZHANG ; Bo WU ; Cairong ZHU ; Craig S ANDERSON ; Ming LIU
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(13):1578-1586
BACKGROUND:
Severe stroke has high rates of mortality and morbidity. This study aimed to investigate the clinical course, causes of worsening, and outcomes of severe ischemic stroke.
METHODS:
This prospective, multicenter cohort study enrolled adult patients admitted ≤30 days after ischemic stroke from nine hospitals in China between September 2017 and December 2019. Severe stroke was defined as a score of ≥15 on the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). Clinical worsening was defined as an increase of 4 in the NIHSS score from baseline. Unfavorable functional outcome was defined as a modified Rankin scale score ≥3 at 3 months and 1 year after stroke onset, respectively. We performed Logistic regression to explore baseline features and reperfusion therapies associated with clinical worsening and functional outcomes.
RESULTS:
Among 4201 patients enrolled, 854 patients (20.33%) had severe stroke on admission. Of 3347 patients without severe stroke on admission, 142 (4.24%) patients developed severe stroke in hospital. Of 854 patients with severe stroke on admission, 33.95% (290/854) experienced clinical worsening (median time from stroke onset: 43 h, Q1-Q3: 20-88 h), with brain edema (54.83% [159/290]) as the leading cause; 24.59% (210/854) of these patients died by 30 days, and 81.47% (677/831) and 78.44% (633/807) had unfavorable functional outcomes at 3 months and 1 year respectively. Reperfusion reduced the risk of worsening (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 0.24, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.12-0.49, P <0.01), 30-day death (adjusted OR: 0.22, 95% CI: 0.11-0.41, P <0.01), and unfavorable functional outcomes at 3 months (adjusted OR: 0.24, 95% CI: 0.08-0.68, P <0.01) and 1 year (adjusted OR: 0.17, 95% CI: 0.06-0.50, P <0.01).
CONCLUSIONS:
Approximately one-fifth of patients with ischemic stroke had severe neurological deficits on admission. Clinical worsening mainly occurred in the first 3 to 4 days after stroke onset, with brain edema as the leading cause of worsening. Reperfusion reduced the risk of clinical worsening and improved functional outcomes.
REGISTRATION
ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT03222024.
Humans
;
Male
;
Female
;
Prospective Studies
;
Ischemic Stroke/mortality*
;
Aged
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged, 80 and over
;
Stroke
;
Brain Ischemia
2.Misaligned light entrainment causes metabolic disorders in Chrono knockout mice.
Ruo-Han WANG ; Shao-Ying LAN ; Bo-Yuan CAO ; Xi-Ming QIN
Acta Physiologica Sinica 2025;77(4):731-740
Most of the life forms on Earth have gradually evolved an endogenous biological clock under the long-term influence of periodic daily light-dark cycles. This biological clock system plays a crucial role in the orderly progression of life activities. In mammals, central circadian clock is located in the suprachiasmatic nucleus of the hypothalamus and the function of the biological clock relies on a transcription-translation negative feedback loop. As a negative regulator in this loop, the function of CHRONO is less known. To deeply explore the role of the Chrono gene in rhythm entrainment and physiology, we constructed a Chrono gene knockout mouse strain using the CRISPR/Cas9 technology and analyzed its entrainment ability under different T cycles. Running wheel tests and glucose tolerance tests were also performed. The results showed that the period of the endogenous biological clock of Chrono knockout mice was prolonged, and the entrainment rate under the T21 cycle was decreased. In addition, metabolic abnormalities, including weight gain and impaired glucose tolerance, were observed in the non-entrained mice. Overall, this study reveals a crucial role of the Chrono gene in maintaining circadian rhythms and metabolic balance, providing a new perspective for understanding the relationship between the biological clock and metabolism. Further research is needed to fully understand the underlying molecular mechanisms.
Animals
;
Mice, Knockout
;
Mice
;
Circadian Rhythm/genetics*
;
Metabolic Diseases/physiopathology*
;
Photoperiod
;
Male
;
Period Circadian Proteins/physiology*
;
Light
;
Circadian Clocks/physiology*
3.Pharmacokinetics study of Dayuanyin in normal and febrile rats.
Yu-Jie HOU ; Kang-Ning XIAO ; Jian-Yun BI ; Xin-Jun ZHANG ; Xin-Rui LI ; Yu-Qing WANG ; Ming SU ; Xin-Ru SUN ; Hui ZHANG ; Bo-Yang WANG ; Li-Jie WANG ; Shan-Xin LIU
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(2):527-533
Based on the pharmacokinetics theory, this study investigated the pharmacokinetic characteristics of albiflorin, paeoniflorin, wogonoside, and wogonin in normal and febrile rats and summarized absorption and elimination rules of Dayuanyin in them to provide reference for further development and clinical application of Dayuanyin. Blood samples were taken from the fundus venous plexus of normal and model rats after intragastric administration of Dayuanyin at different time points. The concentration of each substance in blood was determined by ultra performance liquid chromatography-triple quadrupole mass spectrometry(UPLC-MS/MS) technique at different time points. DAS 2.0, a piece of pharmacokinetics software, was used to calculate the pharmacokinetic parameters of each component. The results show that the 4 components had good linear relationship in their respective ranges, and the results of methodological investigation met the requirements. The pharmacokinetic parameters of C_(max), T_(max), t_(1/2), AUC_(0-t), AUC_(0-∞), and MRT_(0-t) were calculated by the DAS 2.0 non-compartmental model. Compared with those in the normal group, C_(max) and AUC_(0-t) of the 4 components in the model group were significantly increased. There were significant differences in the pharmacokinetic characteristics between the normal and model groups, suggesting that the absorption and elimination of Dayuanyin may be affected by the changes of internal environment of the body in different physiological states.
Animals
;
Rats
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
;
Male
;
Rats, Sprague-Dawley
;
Fever/metabolism*
;
Tandem Mass Spectrometry
;
Chromatography, High Pressure Liquid
;
Glucosides/pharmacokinetics*
;
Monoterpenes
4.Quality control in manufacturing process of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) preparations and its application in evaluation and decision-making of changes in marketed TCM preparations.
Hao CHEN ; Chang-Ming YANG ; Wei HAN ; Jian-Bo QU ; Ping YANG ; Xia CHEN ; Ruo-Jin WANG
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(9):2589-2595
The manufacturing process is crucial for ensuring the safety and efficacy of traditional Chinese medicine(TCM) preparations. Using advanced technologies, innovative methods, and new equipment tailored for TCM to enhance the quality control of TCM preparations in the manufacturing process helps to ensure the product quality and foster high-quality development of the TCM industry. Upon current technical requirements, such as Guideline for Studies on Pharmaceutical Changes in Marketed Traditional Chinese Medicine Preparations(Trial) and Guideline for Study on Quality Control in Manufacturing Process of Oral Traditional Chinese Medicine Preparations(Trial), this paper analyzes the characteristics and current development of quality control in the manufacturing process of TCM preparations. It also discusses the significant roles that quality control in manufacturing process plays in ensuring the quality consistency and in the evaluation and decision-making of changes in marketed TCM preparations. Furthermore, to benefit the high-quality development of the TCM industry, this paper offers recommendations for improving quality control of TCM preparations in the manufacturing process and implementing new technologies and methods.
Quality Control
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/chemistry*
;
Medicine, Chinese Traditional/standards*
;
Decision Making
;
Humans
5.Correlation between differences in starch gelatinization, water distribution, and terpenoid content during steaming process of Curcuma kwangsiensis root tubers by multivariate statistical analysis.
Yan LIANG ; Meng-Na YANG ; Xiao-Li QIN ; Zhi-Yong ZHANG ; Zhong-Nan SU ; Hou-Kang CAO ; Ke-Feng ZHANG ; Ming-Wei WANG ; Bo LI ; Shuo LI
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(10):2684-2694
To elucidate the mechanism by which steaming affects the quality of Curcuma kwangsiensis root tubers, methods such as LSCM, RVA, dual-wavelength spectrophotometry, LF-NMR, and LC-MS were employed to qualitatively and quantitatively detect changes in starch gelatinization characteristics, water distribution, and material composition of C. kwangsiensis root tubers under different steaming durations. Based on multivariate statistical analysis, the correlation between differences in gelatinization parameters, water distribution, and terpenoid material composition was investigated. The results indicate that steaming affects both starch gelatinization and water distribution in C. kwangsiensis. During the steaming process, transformations occur between amylose and amylopectin, as well as between semi-bound water and free water. After 60 min of steaming, starch gelatinization and water distribution reached an equilibrium state. The content of amylopectin, the amylose-to-amylopectin ratio, and parameters such as gelatinization temperature, viscosity, breakdown value, and setback value were significantly correlated(P≤0.05). Additionally, the amylose-to-amylopectin ratio was significantly correlated with total free water and total water content(P≤0.05). Steaming induced differences in the material composition of C. kwangsiensis root tubers. Clustering of primary metabolites in the OPLS-DA model was distinct, while secondary metabolites were classified into 9 clusters using the K-means clustering algorithm. Differential terpenoid metabolites such as(-)-α-curcumene were significantly correlated with zerumbone, retinal, and all-trans-retinoic acid(P<0.05). Curcumenol was significantly correlated with isoalantolactone and ursolic acid(P<0.05), while all-trans-retinoic acid was significantly correlated with both zerumbone and retinal(P<0.05). Alpha-tocotrienol exhibited a significant correlation with retinal and all-trans-retinoic acid(P<0.05). Amylose was extremely significantly correlated with(-)-α-curcumene, curcumenol, zerumbone, retinal, all-trans-retinoic acid, and α-tocotrienol(P<0.05). Amylopectin was significantly correlated with zerumbone(P<0.05) and extremely significantly correlated with(-)-α-curcumene, curcumenol, zerumbone, retinal, all-trans-retinoic acid, and 9-cis-retinoic acid(P<0.01). The results provide scientific evidence for elucidating the mechanism of quality formation of steamed C. kwangsiensis root tubers as a medicinal material.
Curcuma/chemistry*
;
Starch/chemistry*
;
Multivariate Analysis
;
Water/chemistry*
;
Terpenes/analysis*
;
Plant Roots/chemistry*
;
Plant Tubers/chemistry*
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/chemistry*
6.Mechanism of Yishen Jiangtang Decoction in regulating endoplasmic reticulum stress-mediated NLRP3 inflammasome to improve renal damage in diabetic nephropathy db/db mice.
Yun-Jie YANG ; Bin-Hua YE ; Chen QIU ; Han-Qing WU ; Bo-Wei HUANG ; Tong WANG ; Shi-Wei RUAN ; Fang GUO ; Jian-Ting WANG ; Ming-Qian JIANG
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(10):2740-2749
This study aims to explore the mechanism through which Yishen Jiangtang Decoction(YSJTD) regulates endoplasmic reticulum stress(ERS)-mediated NOD-like receptor thermal protein domain associated protein 3(NLRP3) inflammasome to improve diabetic nephropathy(DN) in db/db mice. Thirty db/db mice were randomly divided into the model group, YSJTD group, ERS inhibitor 4-phenylbutyric acid(4-PBA) group, with 10 mice in each group. Additionally, 10 db/m mice were selected as the control group. The YSJTD group was orally administered YSJTD at a dose of 0.01 mL·g~(-1), the 4-PBA group was orally administered 4-PBA at a dose of 0.5 mg·g~(-1), and the control and model groups were given an equal volume of carboxylmethyl cellulose sodium. The treatments were administered once daily for 8 weeks. Food intake, water consumption, and body weight were recorded every 2 weeks. After the intervention, fasting blood glucose(FBG), glycosylated hemoglobin(HbA1c), urine microalbumin(U-mALB), 24-hour urine volume, serum creatinine(Scr), and blood urea nitrogen(BUN) were measured. Inflammatory markers interleukin-1β(IL-1β) and interleukin-18(IL-18) were detected using the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA). Renal pathology was assessed through hematoxylin-eosin(HE), periodic acid-Schiff(PAS), and Masson staining, and transmission electron microscopy(TEM). Western blot was used to detect the expression levels of glucose-regulated protein 78(GRP78), C/EBP homologous protein(CHOP), NLRP3, apoptosis-associated speck-like protein containing CARD(ASC), cysteinyl aspartate-specific proteinase(caspase-1), and gasdermin D(GSDMD) in kidney tissues. The results showed that compared to the control group, the model group exhibited poor general condition, increased weight and food and water intake, and significantly higher levels of FBG, HbA1c, U-mALB, kidney index, 24-hour urine volume, IL-1β, and IL-18. Compared to the model group, the YSJTD and 4-PBA groups showed improved general condition, increased body weight, decreased food intake, and lower levels of FBG, U-mALB, kidney index, 24-hour urine volume, and IL-1β. Specifically, the YSJTD group showed a significant reduction in IL-18 levels compared to the model group, while the 4-PBA group exhibited decreased water intake and HbA1c levels compared to the model group. Although there was a decreasing trend in water intake and HbA1c in the YSJTD group, the differences were not statistically significant. No significant differences were observed in BUN, Scr, and kidney weight among the groups. Renal pathology revealed that the model group exhibited more severe renal damage compared to the control group. Kidney sections from the model group showed diffuse mesangial proliferation in the glomeruli, tubular edema, tubular dilation, significant inflammatory cell infiltration in the interstitium, and increased glycogen staining and blue collagen deposition in the basement membrane. In contrast, the YSJTD and 4-PBA groups showed varying degrees of improvement in renal damage, glycogen staining, and collagen deposition, with the YSJTD group showing more significant improvements. TEM analysis indicated that the model group had extensive cytoplasmic edema, homogeneous thickening of the basement membrane, fewer foot processes, and widening of fused foot processes. In the YSJTD and 4-PBA groups, cytoplasmic swelling of renal tissues was reduced, the basement membrane remained intact and uniform, and foot process fusion improved.Western blot results indicated that compared to the control group, the model group showed upregulation of GRP78, CHOP, GSDMD, NLRP3, ASC, and caspase-1 expression. In contrast, both the YSJTD and 4-PBA groups showed downregulation of these markers compared to the model group. These findings suggest that YSJTD exerts a protective effect against DN by alleviating NLRP3 inflammasome activation through the inhibition of ERS, thereby improving the inflammatory response in db/db DN mice.
Animals
;
Endoplasmic Reticulum Stress/drug effects*
;
Diabetic Nephropathies/metabolism*
;
NLR Family, Pyrin Domain-Containing 3 Protein/genetics*
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
;
Mice
;
Inflammasomes/drug effects*
;
Male
;
Kidney/pathology*
;
Endoplasmic Reticulum Chaperone BiP
;
Humans
;
Interleukin-18/genetics*
;
Mice, Inbred C57BL
7.Clinical efficacy of hallux valgus under the guiding of minimally invasive hallux valgus diagnosis and treatment system.
Pei-Biao CAI ; Yi-Biao DOU ; Chuang-Jian LIN ; Guan-Nan WEN ; Hai-Bo CHEN ; Chuang-Ming WANG
China Journal of Orthopaedics and Traumatology 2025;38(6):566-571
OBJECTIVE:
To explore short-term clinical efficacy of minimally invasive diagnosis and treatment system for hallux valgus in guiding the treatment of hallux valgus.
METHODS:
From March 2021 to November 2023, 68 patients (136 feet) with hallux valgus were treated under guidance of minimally invasive diagnosis and treatment system, including 12 males and 56 females;aged from 25 to 68 years old with an average of (42.5±8.5) years old, the course of disease ranged from 3.2 to 15.6 years with an average of (10.3±2.6) years. The changes of hallux valgus angle (HVA) and intermetatarsal angle (IMA), visual analog scale (VAS) and American Orthopaedic Foot Ankle Society (AOFAS) forefoot score were recorded and compared before operation and 12 months after operation.
RESULTS:
Sixty-five patients (130 feet) were followed up for 12 to 15 months with an average of (13.8±0.5) months, 3 patients (6 feet) were not followed up as required. HVA and IMA improved from (35.5±3.5) ° and (12.5±2.0) ° before operation to (10.5±2.5) ° and (8.5±1.5) °12 months after operation, respectively, with statistically significant differences (P<0.05);VAS decreased from (5.5±1.2) before operation to (1.2±0.5) at 12 months after operation, and the difference was statistically significant (P<0.05);AOFAS forefoot score increased from (50.6±5.1) before operation to (93.8±5.6) at 12 months after operation, with a statistically significant difference (P<0.05). Among them, 102 feet were got excellent result, 24 feet good, and 4 feet fair. Two patients were developed calf intermuscular vein thrombosis, and were cured after 3 months of symptomatic treatment.
CONCLUSION
Under the guidance of minimally invasive diagnosis and treatment system for hallux valgus, the treatment of HV could obviously improve HVA and IMA, and significantly alleviate pain symptoms, and accelerate functional recovery.
Humans
;
Hallux Valgus/diagnosis*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Adult
;
Aged
;
Minimally Invasive Surgical Procedures/methods*
;
Treatment Outcome
8.Experimental study on autologous osteochondral transplantation in the treatment of recurrent anterior dislocation of the shoulder joint with articular cartilage defect in rabbits.
Tao LIU ; Sen FANG ; Fang-Xiang LIU ; Ming-Tao ZHANG ; Zhi-Tao YANG ; Bo-Rong ZHANG ; Jun-Wen LIANG ; Xi-Hao WANG ; Jin JIANG ; Xiang-Dong YUN
China Journal of Orthopaedics and Traumatology 2025;38(6):619-625
OBJECTIVE:
To explore clinical effect of autologous osteochondral transplantation (AOT) in the treatment of recurrent anterior dislocation of the shoulder joint with glenoid cartilage defect in rabbits by establishing a model of recurrent anterior dislocation of the shoulder joint with < 20% glenoid cartilage defect in rabbits.
METHODS:
Twenty-four male New Zealand white rabbits, aged 6-month-old, weighed (2.69±0.17) kg were selected. The labrum of shoulder joint of rabbits was artificially destroyed to establish a model of recurrent anterior dislocation of shoulder joint with cartilage defect. They were divided into AOT surgery group and simple suture group, with 12 rabbits in each group. AOT group were underwent AOT surgery, while simple suture group was treated with simple Bankart suture for recurrent shoulder joint dislocation. At 6 and 12 weeks after operation, 6 rabbits between two groups were sacrificed for sampling. The dietary conditions, activity conditions, mental states of rabbits and healing conditions of grafts in the specimens were observed and compared between two groups. HE staining was used to observe cell creep, cell morphology, inflammatory cell infiltration, fibrochondrocytes and their arrangement. Masson staining was used to observe the formation and arrangement of collagen fibers; Safrane-green staining was used to observe the regeneration of articular cartilage, subchondral bone and bone tissue. Bone mineral density (BMD), bone volume (BV) and trabecular thickness (Tb.Th) between two groups were measured by Micro-CT to evaluate the remodeling of shoulder glenoid bone defects by autologous osteochondral cartilage.
RESULTS:
After different surgical interventions were carried out in both groups of rabbits, at 6 weeks after the operation, the abduction, extension, internal rotation and external rotation of the shoulder joint on the operated side showed limited range of motion compared with the contralateral side, while adduction and forward flexion showed no obvious abnormalities compared with the contralateral side. At 12 weeks after operation, the range motion of tshoulder joints in both groups of rabbits had returned to the state before modeling. The effects of HE staining, Masson staining and safrane-green staining at 12 weeks after operation in both groups were stronger than the staining results at 6 weeks after operation. Moreover, the results of HE staining, Masson staining and safranin fixation green staining in AOT group at 6 and 12 weeks after operation were all higher than those in simple suture group. Micro-CT scan results at 6 and 12 weeks after operation showed that BMD (0.427±0.014), (0.466±0.032) g·cm-3, BV(116.171±3.527), (159.327±3.500) mm3, and Tb.Th (0.230±0.006), (0.285±0.009) mm in AOT group, which were higher than those of simple suture group in BMD(0.358±0.011), (0.384±0.096) g·cm-3, BV(72.657±3.903), (118.713±3.860) mm3, and Tb.Th(0.204±0.009), (0.243±0.007) mm;and the differences were statistically significant (P<0.05).
CONCLUSION
AOT procedure could effectively promote osteogenesis and fibrocartilage regeneration in the cartilage defect area of the shoulder glenoid <20%, which is conducive to reshaping the structure of the shoulder glenoid.
Animals
;
Rabbits
;
Male
;
Transplantation, Autologous
;
Cartilage, Articular/injuries*
;
Shoulder Dislocation/physiopathology*
;
Bone Transplantation
;
Shoulder Joint/surgery*
9.Complications among patients undergoing orthopedic surgery after infection with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron strain and a preliminary nomogram for predicting patient outcomes.
Liang ZHANG ; Wen-Long GOU ; Ke-Yu LUO ; Jun ZHU ; Yi-Bo GAN ; Xiang YIN ; Jun-Gang PU ; Huai-Jian JIN ; Xian-Qing ZHANG ; Wan-Fei WU ; Zi-Ming WANG ; Yao-Yao LIU ; Yang LI ; Peng LIU
Chinese Journal of Traumatology 2025;28(6):445-453
PURPOSE:
The rate of complications among patients undergoing surgery has increased due to infection with SARS-CoV-2 and other variants of concern. However, Omicron has shown decreased pathogenicity, raising questions about the risk of postoperative complications among patients who are infected with this variant. This study aimed to investigate complications and related factors among patients with recent Omicron infection prior to undergoing orthopedic surgery.
METHODS:
A historical control study was conducted. Data were collected from all patients who underwent surgery during 2 distinct periods: (1) between Dec 12, 2022 and Jan 31, 2023 (COVID-19 positive group), (2) between Dec 12, 2021 and Jan 31, 2022 (COVID-19 negative control group). The patients were at least 18 years old. Patients who received conservative treatment after admission or had high-risk diseases or special circumstances (use of anticoagulants before surgery) were excluded from the study. The study outcomes were the total complication rate and related factors. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to identify related factors, and odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated to assess the impact of COVID-19 infection on complications.
RESULTS:
In the analysis, a total of 847 patients who underwent surgery were included, with 275 of these patients testing positive for COVID-19 and 572 testing negative. The COVID-19-positive group had a significantly higher rate of total complications (11.27%) than the control group (4.90%, p < 0.001). After adjusting for relevant factors, the OR was 3.08 (95% CI: 1.45-6.53). Patients who were diagnosed with COVID-19 at 3-4 weeks (OR = 0.20 (95% CI: 0.06-0.59), p = 0.005), 5-6 weeks (OR = 0.16 (95% CI: 0.04-0.59), p = 0.010), or ≥7 weeks (OR = 0.26 (95% CI: 0.06-1.02), p = 0.069) prior to surgery had a lower risk of complications than those who were diagnosed at 0-2 weeks prior to surgery. Seven factors (age, indications for surgery, time of operation, time of COVID-19 diagnosis prior to surgery, C-reactive protein levels, alanine transaminase levels, and aspartate aminotransferase levels) were found to be associated with complications; thus, these factors were used to create a nomogram.
CONCLUSION
Omicron continues to be a significant factor in the incidence of postoperative complications among patients undergoing orthopedic surgery. By identifying the factors associated with these complications, we can determine the optimal surgical timing, provide more accurate prognostic information, and offer appropriate consultation for orthopedic surgery patients who have been infected with Omicron.
Humans
;
COVID-19/complications*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Postoperative Complications/epidemiology*
;
SARS-CoV-2
;
Orthopedic Procedures/adverse effects*
;
Aged
;
Nomograms
;
Adult
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Risk Factors
10.Establishment of a nomogram for early risk prediction of severe trauma in primary medical institutions: A multi-center study.
Wang BO ; Ming-Rui ZHANG ; Gui-Yan MA ; Zhan-Fu YANG ; Rui-Ning LU ; Xu-Sheng ZHANG ; Shao-Guang LIU
Chinese Journal of Traumatology 2025;28(6):418-426
PURPOSE:
To analyze risk factors for severe trauma and establish a nomogram for early risk prediction, to improve the early identification of severe trauma.
METHODS:
This study was conducted on the patients treated in 81 trauma treatment institutions in Gansu province from 2020 to 2022. Patients were grouped by year, with 5364 patients from 2020 to 2021 as the training set and 1094 newly admitted patients in 2020 as the external validation set. Based on the injury severity score (ISS), patients in the training set were classified into 2 subgroups of the severe trauma group (n = 478, ISS scores ≥25) and the non-severe trauma group (n = 4886, ISS scores <25). Univariate and binary logistic regression analyses were employed to identify independent risk factors for severe trauma. Subsequently, a predictive model was developed using the R software environment. Furthermore, the model was subjected to internal and external validation via the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.
RESULTS:
In total, 6458 trauma patients were included in this study. Initially, this study identified several independent risk factors for severe trauma, including multiple traumatic injuries (polytrauma), external hemorrhage, elevated shock index, elevated respiratory rate, decreased peripheral oxygen saturation, and decreased Glasgow coma scale score (all p < 0.05). For internal validation, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.914, with the sensitivity and specificity of 88.4% and 87.6%, respectively; while for external validation, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.936, with the sensitivity and specificity of 84.6% and 93.7%, respectively. In addition, a good model fitting was observed through the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration curve analysis (p > 0.05).
CONCLUSION
This study establishes a nomogram for early risk prediction of severe trauma, which is suitable for primary healthcare institutions in underdeveloped western China. It facilitates early triage and quantitative assessment of trauma severity by clinicians prior to clinical interventions.
Humans
;
Nomograms
;
Male
;
Female
;
Wounds and Injuries/diagnosis*
;
Risk Factors
;
Middle Aged
;
Adult
;
Injury Severity Score
;
Risk Assessment
;
ROC Curve
;
Aged
;
Logistic Models
;
China
;
Glasgow Coma Scale

Result Analysis
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