1.Ultrasound-guided attenuation parameter for identifying metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease: a prospective study
Yun-Lin HUANG ; Chao SUN ; Ying WANG ; Juan CHENG ; Shi-Wen WANG ; Li WEI ; Xiu-Yun LU ; Rui CHENG ; Ming WANG ; Jian-Gao FAN ; Yi DONG
Ultrasonography 2025;44(2):134-144
Purpose:
This study assessed the performance of the ultrasound-guided attenuation parameter (UGAP) in diagnosing and grading hepatic steatosis in patients with metabolic dysfunctionassociated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). Magnetic resonance imaging proton density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF) served as the reference standard.
Methods:
Patients with hepatic steatosis were enrolled in this prospective study and underwent UGAP measurements. MRI-PDFF values of ≥5%, ≥15%, and ≥25% were used as references for the diagnosis of steatosis grades ≥S1, ≥S2, and S3, respectively. Spearman correlation coefficients and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were calculated.
Results:
Between July 2023 and June 2024, the study included 88 patients (median age, 40 years; interquartile range [IQR], 36 to 46 years), of whom 54.5% (48/88) were men and 45.5% (40/88) were women. Steatosis grades exhibited the following distribution: 22.7% (20/88) had S0, 50.0% (44/88) had S1, 21.6% (19/88) had S2, and 5.7% (5/88) had S3. The success rate for UGAP measurements was 100%. The median UGAP value was 0.74 dB/cm/MHz (IQR, 0.65 to 0.82 dB/ cm/MHz), and UGAP values were positively correlated with MRI-PDFF (r=0.77, P<0.001). The AUCs of UGAP for the diagnoses of ≥S1, ≥S2, and S3 steatosis were 0.91, 0.90, and 0.88, respectively. In the subgroup analysis, 98.4% (60/61) of patients had valid controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) values. UGAP measurements were positively correlated with CAP values (r=0.65, P<0.001).
Conclusion
Using MRI-PDFF as the reference standard, UGAP demonstrates good diagnostic performance in the detection and grading of hepatic steatosis in patients with MASLD.
2.Ultrasound-guided attenuation parameter for identifying metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease: a prospective study
Yun-Lin HUANG ; Chao SUN ; Ying WANG ; Juan CHENG ; Shi-Wen WANG ; Li WEI ; Xiu-Yun LU ; Rui CHENG ; Ming WANG ; Jian-Gao FAN ; Yi DONG
Ultrasonography 2025;44(2):134-144
Purpose:
This study assessed the performance of the ultrasound-guided attenuation parameter (UGAP) in diagnosing and grading hepatic steatosis in patients with metabolic dysfunctionassociated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). Magnetic resonance imaging proton density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF) served as the reference standard.
Methods:
Patients with hepatic steatosis were enrolled in this prospective study and underwent UGAP measurements. MRI-PDFF values of ≥5%, ≥15%, and ≥25% were used as references for the diagnosis of steatosis grades ≥S1, ≥S2, and S3, respectively. Spearman correlation coefficients and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were calculated.
Results:
Between July 2023 and June 2024, the study included 88 patients (median age, 40 years; interquartile range [IQR], 36 to 46 years), of whom 54.5% (48/88) were men and 45.5% (40/88) were women. Steatosis grades exhibited the following distribution: 22.7% (20/88) had S0, 50.0% (44/88) had S1, 21.6% (19/88) had S2, and 5.7% (5/88) had S3. The success rate for UGAP measurements was 100%. The median UGAP value was 0.74 dB/cm/MHz (IQR, 0.65 to 0.82 dB/ cm/MHz), and UGAP values were positively correlated with MRI-PDFF (r=0.77, P<0.001). The AUCs of UGAP for the diagnoses of ≥S1, ≥S2, and S3 steatosis were 0.91, 0.90, and 0.88, respectively. In the subgroup analysis, 98.4% (60/61) of patients had valid controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) values. UGAP measurements were positively correlated with CAP values (r=0.65, P<0.001).
Conclusion
Using MRI-PDFF as the reference standard, UGAP demonstrates good diagnostic performance in the detection and grading of hepatic steatosis in patients with MASLD.
3.Ultrasound-guided attenuation parameter for identifying metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease: a prospective study
Yun-Lin HUANG ; Chao SUN ; Ying WANG ; Juan CHENG ; Shi-Wen WANG ; Li WEI ; Xiu-Yun LU ; Rui CHENG ; Ming WANG ; Jian-Gao FAN ; Yi DONG
Ultrasonography 2025;44(2):134-144
Purpose:
This study assessed the performance of the ultrasound-guided attenuation parameter (UGAP) in diagnosing and grading hepatic steatosis in patients with metabolic dysfunctionassociated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). Magnetic resonance imaging proton density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF) served as the reference standard.
Methods:
Patients with hepatic steatosis were enrolled in this prospective study and underwent UGAP measurements. MRI-PDFF values of ≥5%, ≥15%, and ≥25% were used as references for the diagnosis of steatosis grades ≥S1, ≥S2, and S3, respectively. Spearman correlation coefficients and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were calculated.
Results:
Between July 2023 and June 2024, the study included 88 patients (median age, 40 years; interquartile range [IQR], 36 to 46 years), of whom 54.5% (48/88) were men and 45.5% (40/88) were women. Steatosis grades exhibited the following distribution: 22.7% (20/88) had S0, 50.0% (44/88) had S1, 21.6% (19/88) had S2, and 5.7% (5/88) had S3. The success rate for UGAP measurements was 100%. The median UGAP value was 0.74 dB/cm/MHz (IQR, 0.65 to 0.82 dB/ cm/MHz), and UGAP values were positively correlated with MRI-PDFF (r=0.77, P<0.001). The AUCs of UGAP for the diagnoses of ≥S1, ≥S2, and S3 steatosis were 0.91, 0.90, and 0.88, respectively. In the subgroup analysis, 98.4% (60/61) of patients had valid controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) values. UGAP measurements were positively correlated with CAP values (r=0.65, P<0.001).
Conclusion
Using MRI-PDFF as the reference standard, UGAP demonstrates good diagnostic performance in the detection and grading of hepatic steatosis in patients with MASLD.
4.Ultrasound-guided attenuation parameter for identifying metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease: a prospective study
Yun-Lin HUANG ; Chao SUN ; Ying WANG ; Juan CHENG ; Shi-Wen WANG ; Li WEI ; Xiu-Yun LU ; Rui CHENG ; Ming WANG ; Jian-Gao FAN ; Yi DONG
Ultrasonography 2025;44(2):134-144
Purpose:
This study assessed the performance of the ultrasound-guided attenuation parameter (UGAP) in diagnosing and grading hepatic steatosis in patients with metabolic dysfunctionassociated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). Magnetic resonance imaging proton density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF) served as the reference standard.
Methods:
Patients with hepatic steatosis were enrolled in this prospective study and underwent UGAP measurements. MRI-PDFF values of ≥5%, ≥15%, and ≥25% were used as references for the diagnosis of steatosis grades ≥S1, ≥S2, and S3, respectively. Spearman correlation coefficients and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were calculated.
Results:
Between July 2023 and June 2024, the study included 88 patients (median age, 40 years; interquartile range [IQR], 36 to 46 years), of whom 54.5% (48/88) were men and 45.5% (40/88) were women. Steatosis grades exhibited the following distribution: 22.7% (20/88) had S0, 50.0% (44/88) had S1, 21.6% (19/88) had S2, and 5.7% (5/88) had S3. The success rate for UGAP measurements was 100%. The median UGAP value was 0.74 dB/cm/MHz (IQR, 0.65 to 0.82 dB/ cm/MHz), and UGAP values were positively correlated with MRI-PDFF (r=0.77, P<0.001). The AUCs of UGAP for the diagnoses of ≥S1, ≥S2, and S3 steatosis were 0.91, 0.90, and 0.88, respectively. In the subgroup analysis, 98.4% (60/61) of patients had valid controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) values. UGAP measurements were positively correlated with CAP values (r=0.65, P<0.001).
Conclusion
Using MRI-PDFF as the reference standard, UGAP demonstrates good diagnostic performance in the detection and grading of hepatic steatosis in patients with MASLD.
5.Ultrasound-guided attenuation parameter for identifying metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease: a prospective study
Yun-Lin HUANG ; Chao SUN ; Ying WANG ; Juan CHENG ; Shi-Wen WANG ; Li WEI ; Xiu-Yun LU ; Rui CHENG ; Ming WANG ; Jian-Gao FAN ; Yi DONG
Ultrasonography 2025;44(2):134-144
Purpose:
This study assessed the performance of the ultrasound-guided attenuation parameter (UGAP) in diagnosing and grading hepatic steatosis in patients with metabolic dysfunctionassociated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). Magnetic resonance imaging proton density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF) served as the reference standard.
Methods:
Patients with hepatic steatosis were enrolled in this prospective study and underwent UGAP measurements. MRI-PDFF values of ≥5%, ≥15%, and ≥25% were used as references for the diagnosis of steatosis grades ≥S1, ≥S2, and S3, respectively. Spearman correlation coefficients and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were calculated.
Results:
Between July 2023 and June 2024, the study included 88 patients (median age, 40 years; interquartile range [IQR], 36 to 46 years), of whom 54.5% (48/88) were men and 45.5% (40/88) were women. Steatosis grades exhibited the following distribution: 22.7% (20/88) had S0, 50.0% (44/88) had S1, 21.6% (19/88) had S2, and 5.7% (5/88) had S3. The success rate for UGAP measurements was 100%. The median UGAP value was 0.74 dB/cm/MHz (IQR, 0.65 to 0.82 dB/ cm/MHz), and UGAP values were positively correlated with MRI-PDFF (r=0.77, P<0.001). The AUCs of UGAP for the diagnoses of ≥S1, ≥S2, and S3 steatosis were 0.91, 0.90, and 0.88, respectively. In the subgroup analysis, 98.4% (60/61) of patients had valid controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) values. UGAP measurements were positively correlated with CAP values (r=0.65, P<0.001).
Conclusion
Using MRI-PDFF as the reference standard, UGAP demonstrates good diagnostic performance in the detection and grading of hepatic steatosis in patients with MASLD.
6.Safety of high-carbohydrate fluid diet 2 h versus overnight fasting before non-emergency endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography: A single-blind, multicenter, randomized controlled trial
Wenbo MENG ; W. Joseph LEUNG ; Zhenyu WANG ; Qiyong LI ; Leida ZHANG ; Kai ZHANG ; Xuefeng WANG ; Meng WANG ; Qi WANG ; Yingmei SHAO ; Jijun ZHANG ; Ping YUE ; Lei ZHANG ; Kexiang ZHU ; Xiaoliang ZHU ; Hui ZHANG ; Senlin HOU ; Kailin CAI ; Hao SUN ; Ping XUE ; Wei LIU ; Haiping WANG ; Li ZHANG ; Songming DING ; Zhiqing YANG ; Ming ZHANG ; Hao WENG ; Qingyuan WU ; Bendong CHEN ; Tiemin JIANG ; Yingkai WANG ; Lichao ZHANG ; Ke WU ; Xue YANG ; Zilong WEN ; Chun LIU ; Long MIAO ; Zhengfeng WANG ; Jiajia LI ; Xiaowen YAN ; Fangzhao WANG ; Lingen ZHANG ; Mingzhen BAI ; Ningning MI ; Xianzhuo ZHANG ; Wence ZHOU ; Jinqiu YUAN ; Azumi SUZUKI ; Kiyohito TANAKA ; Jiankang LIU ; Ula NUR ; Elisabete WEIDERPASS ; Xun LI
Chinese Medical Journal 2024;137(12):1437-1446
Background::Although overnight fasting is recommended prior to endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), the benefits and safety of high-carbohydrate fluid diet (CFD) intake 2 h before ERCP remain unclear. This study aimed to analyze whether high-CFD intake 2 h before ERCP can be safe and accelerate patients’ recovery.Methods::This prospective, multicenter, randomized controlled trial involved 15 tertiary ERCP centers. A total of 1330 patients were randomized into CFD group ( n = 665) and fasting group ( n = 665). The CFD group received 400 mL of maltodextrin orally 2 h before ERCP, while the control group abstained from food/water overnight (>6 h) before ERCP. All ERCP procedures were performed using deep sedation with intravenous propofol. The investigators were blinded but not the patients. The primary outcomes included postoperative fatigue and abdominal pain score, and the secondary outcomes included complications and changes in metabolic indicators. The outcomes were analyzed according to a modified intention-to-treat principle. Results::The post-ERCP fatigue scores were significantly lower at 4 h (4.1 ± 2.6 vs. 4.8 ± 2.8, t = 4.23, P <0.001) and 20 h (2.4 ± 2.1 vs. 3.4 ± 2.4, t= 7.94, P <0.001) in the CFD group, with least-squares mean differences of 0.48 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.26–0.71, P <0.001) and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.57–0.95, P <0.001), respectively. The 4-h pain scores (2.1 ± 1.7 vs. 2.2 ± 1.7, t = 2.60, P = 0.009, with a least-squares mean difference of 0.21 [95% CI: 0.05–0.37]) and positive urine ketone levels (7.7% [39/509] vs. 15.4% [82/533], χ2 = 15.13, P <0.001) were lower in the CFD group. The CFD group had significantly less cholangitis (2.1% [13/634] vs. 4.0% [26/658], χ2 = 3.99, P = 0.046) but not pancreatitis (5.5% [35/634] vs. 6.5% [43/658], χ2 = 0.59, P = 0.444). Subgroup analysis revealed that CFD reduced the incidence of complications in patients with native papilla (odds ratio [OR]: 0.61, 95% CI: 0.39–0.95, P = 0.028) in the multivariable models. Conclusion::Ingesting 400 mL of CFD 2 h before ERCP is safe, with a reduction in post-ERCP fatigue, abdominal pain, and cholangitis during recovery.Trail Registration::ClinicalTrials.gov, No. NCT03075280.
7.The neuroprotective effect of Wenfei Jiangzhuo formula on vascular dementia model rats based on regulation of mitochondrial homeostasis by PGAM5-Drp1 axis
Ding ZHANG ; Zhi-Han HU ; Chun-Ying SUN ; Xiao-Dong ZHU ; Fang-Cun LI ; Ming-He JIANG ; Hong-Ling QIN ; Wei CHEN ; Yue-Qiang HU
Chinese Pharmacological Bulletin 2024;40(11):2158-2164
Aim To observe the effects of Wenfei Jiangzhuo formula(WFJZF)on rats with vascular de-mentia and investigate its possible mechanism of ac-tion.Methods Thirty-six healthy male SD rats were randomly divided into the sham group,model group,donepezil group,and low-dose,medium-dose and high-dose groups of Wenfei Jiangzhuo formula,with six rats per group.Except for the sham group,the other groups were prepared as VaD models,and each group was gavaged with the corresponding drugs after suc-cessful modeling,and tests were performed after three weeks of treatment.Behavioral,hippocampal CA1 area morphology,neural dendrites and mitochondrial chan-ges were observed in all groups of rats,and phospho-glycerate mutase 5(PGAM5),dynamics-related pro-teins1(Drp1),opticatrophyprotein-1(OPA1),and other proteins were detected in each group.Results Compared with the sham group,rats in the model group and each intervention group had prolonged es-cape latency(P<0.05),a shorter number of travers-als across the platforms(P<0.05),a sparse morphol-ogy of hippocampal neurons,a reduction in the number of secondary dendritic spines,and a rupture of the out-er membrane of the mitochondria;the expression of the PGAM5 and Drp1 proteins in hippocampal tissues was elevated(P<0.05),and the expression of the OPA1 and Mfn1/2 protein expression decreased(P<0.05);compared with the model group,donepezil group and Wenfei Jiangzhuo formula high-dose group of rats had shorter evasion latency(P<0.05),increased number of times to traverse the platform(P<0.05),increased number of hippocampal neurons,tightly packed,more secondary dendritic structures,and reduced mitochon-drial damage;the expression of PGAM5 and Drp1 pro-teins was reduced(P<0.05),and the expression of OPA1 and Mfn1/2 proteins was elevated(P<0.05).Conclusions Wenfei Jiangzhuo formula can regulate the PGAM5-Drp1 signaling axis to improve the balance of mitochondrial homeostasis,thus improving the cog-nitive condition of the brain and exerting cerebroprotec-tive effects.
8.Comparison of Clinical Characteristics of JAK2,CALR and Tri-Negative Driving Mutant Type in Patients with Essential Thrombocythemia
Yu-Meng LI ; Er-Peng YANG ; Zi-Qing WANG ; De-Hao WANG ; Ji-Cong NIU ; Yu-Jin LI ; Jing MING ; Ming-Qian SUN ; Zhuo CHEN ; Wei-Yi LIU ; Yan LYU ; Xiao-Mei HU
Journal of Experimental Hematology 2024;32(1):197-201
Objective:To investigate the relationship between mutated genes and clinical features in patients with essential thrombocythemia(ET).Methods:The clinical data of 69 patients with ET from October 2018 to March 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.According to driver mutation type,patients were divided into JAK2 group,CALR group and triple-negative group.The sex,age,cardiovascular risk factors,thrombosis,splenomegaly,routine blood test and coagulation status of patients in three groups were analyzed.Results:Among 69 ET patients,46 cases were associated with JAK2 mutation,14 cases with CALR mutation,8 cases with triple-negative mutation,and one with MPL gene mutation.There were no significant differences in age and sex among the three groups(P>0.05).The highest thrombotic rate was 26.09%(12/46)in JAK2 group,then 12.5%(1/8)in triple-negative group,while no thrombotic events occurred in CALR group.The incidence of splenomegaly was the highest in JAK2 group(34.78%),while no splenomegaly occurred in triple-negative group.The white blood cell(WBC)count in JAK2 group was(9.00±4.86)× 109/L,which was significantly higher than(6.03±2.32)× 109/L in CALR group(P<0.05).The hemoglobin(Hb)and hematocrit(HCT)in JAK2 group were(148.42±18.79)g/L and(0.44±0.06)%,respectively,which were both significantly higher than(131.00±15.17)g/L and(0.39±0.05)%in triple-negative group(P<0.05).The platelet(PLT)in JAK2 group was(584.17±175.77)× 109/L,which was significantly lower than(703.07±225.60)× 109/L in CALR group(P<0.05).The fibrinogen(Fg)in JAK2 and triple-negative group were(2.64±0.69)g/L and(3.05±0.77)g/L,respectively,which were both significantly higher than(2.24±0.47)g/L in CALR group(P<0.05,P<0.01).The activated partial thromboplastin time(APTT)in triple-negative group was(28.61±1.99)s,which was significantly decreased compared with(31.45±3.35)s in CALR group(P<0.05).Conclusions:There are differences in blood cell count and coagulation status among ET patients with different driver gene mutations.Among ET patients,JAK2 mutation is most common.Compared with CALR group,the thrombotic rate,WBC and Fg significantly increase in JAK2 group,while PLT decrease.Compared with triple-negative group,the incidence of splenomegaly and HCT significantly increase.Compared with CALR group,Fg significantly increases but APTT decreases in triple-negative group.
9.Analysis of Genes Related to Platelet Activation in Essential Thrombocythemia Based on Transcriptomics
Yan SUN ; Er-Peng YANG ; Yu-Meng LI ; Ji-Cong NIU ; Pei ZHAO ; Wei-Yi LIU ; Zhuo CHEN ; Ming-Jing WANG ; Teng FAN ; Xiao-Mei HU
Journal of Experimental Hematology 2024;32(6):1814-1821
Objective:To analyze the genes related to platelet activation in essential thrombocythemia (ET)based on transcriptome sequencing technology (RNA-seq ),and to explore the potential targets related to ET thrombosis. Methods:Blood samples from ET patients and healthy individuals were collected for RNA-seq,and differentially expressed lncRNAs,miRNAs,and mRNAs were selected to construct a lncRNA-miRNA-mRNA regulatory network. Differential mRNAs in the regulatory network were enriched and analyzed using Gene Ontology (GO ) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG).The real-time PCR method was applied to validate differential mRNAs on crucial signaling pathways.Results:A total of 32 lncRNAs (3 up-regulated,29 down-regulated),16 miRNAs (8 up-regulated,8 down-regulated),and 35 mRNAs (27 up-regulated,8 down-regulated)were identified as differentially expressed.Among them,5 lncRNAs,12 miRNAs,and 19 mRNAs constituted the regulatory network.KEGG enrichment analysis showed that the differential mRNAs were related to the platelet activation signaling pathway,and there were 6 differential mRNAs related to platelet activation,namely F2R,ITGA2B,ITGB1,ITGB3,PTGS1,and GP1 BB,which were all up-regulated in their expression.RT-PCR results showed that the expression of five mRNAs including F2R,ITGA2B,ITGB1,ITGB3,and GP1BB were upregulated in ET patients compared with healthy subjects,and consistent with RNA-seq results,while PTGS1 expression was not significantly different.Conclusion:Differential mRNAs in ET patients are related to the platelet activation pathway,and F2R,ITGA2B,ITGB1,ITGB3,and GP1BB mRNAs may serve as novel targets associated with platelet activation in ET.
10.Constructing a predictive model for the death risk of patients with septic shock based on supervised machine learning algorithms
Zheng XIE ; Jing JIN ; Dongsong LIU ; Shengyi LU ; Hui YU ; Dong HAN ; Wei SUN ; Ming HUANG
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2024;36(4):345-352
Objective:To construct and validate the best predictive model for 28-day death risk in patients with septic shock based on different supervised machine learning algorithms.Methods:The patients with septic shock meeting the Sepsis-3 criteria were selected from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-Ⅳ v2.0 (MIMIC-Ⅳ v2.0). According to the principle of random allocation, 70% of these patients were used as the training set, and 30% as the validation set. Relevant predictive variables were extracted from three aspects: demographic characteristics and basic vital signs, serum indicators within 24 hours of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and complications possibly affecting indicators, functional scoring and advanced life support. The predictive efficacy of models constructed using five mainstream machine learning algorithms including decision tree classification and regression tree (CART), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), linear regression (LR), and super learner [SL; combined CART, RF and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)] for 28-day death in patients with septic shock was compared, and the best algorithm model was selected. The optimal predictive variables were determined by intersecting the results from LASSO regression, RF, and XGBoost algorithms, and a predictive model was constructed. The predictive efficacy of the model was validated by drawing receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), the accuracy of the model was assessed using calibration curves, and the practicality of the model was verified through decision curve analysis (DCA).Results:A total of 3?295 patients with septic shock were included, with 2?164 surviving and 1?131 dying within 28 days, resulting in a mortality of 34.32%. Of these, 2?307 were in the training set (with 792 deaths within 28 days, a mortality of 34.33%), and 988 in the validation set (with 339 deaths within 28 days, a mortality of 34.31%). Five machine learning models were established based on the training set data. After including variables at three aspects, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of RF, SVM, and LR machine learning algorithm models for predicting 28-day death in septic shock patients in the validation set was 0.823 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) was 0.795-0.849], 0.823 (95% CI was 0.796-0.849), and 0.810 (95% CI was 0.782-0.838), respectively, which were higher than that of the CART algorithm model (AUC = 0.750, 95% CI was 0.717-0.782) and SL algorithm model (AUC = 0.756, 95% CI was 0.724-0.789). Thus above three algorithm models were determined to be the best algorithm models. After integrating variables from three aspects, 16 optimal predictive variables were identified through intersection by LASSO regression, RF, and XGBoost algorithms, including the highest pH value, the highest albumin (Alb), the highest body temperature, the lowest lactic acid (Lac), the highest Lac, the highest serum creatinine (SCr), the highest Ca 2+, the lowest hemoglobin (Hb), the lowest white blood cell count (WBC), age, simplified acute physiology score Ⅲ (SAPSⅢ), the highest WBC, acute physiology score Ⅲ (APSⅢ), the lowest Na +, body mass index (BMI), and the shortest activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) within 24 hours of ICU admission. ROC curve analysis showed that the Logistic regression model constructed with above 16 optimal predictive variables was the best predictive model, with an AUC of 0.806 (95% CI was 0.778-0.835) in the validation set. The calibration curve and DCA curve showed that this model had high accuracy and the highest net benefit could reach 0.3, which was significantly outperforming traditional models based on single functional score [APSⅢ score, SAPSⅢ score, and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score] with AUC (95% CI) of 0.746 (0.715-0.778), 0.765 (0.734-0.796), and 0.625 (0.589-0.661), respectively. Conclusions:The Logistic regression model, constructed using 16 optimal predictive variables including pH value, Alb, body temperature, Lac, SCr, Ca 2+, Hb, WBC, SAPSⅢ score, APSⅢ score, Na +, BMI, and APTT, is identified as the best predictive model for the 28-day death risk in patients with septic shock. Its performance is stable, with high discriminative ability and accuracy.

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