1.Practicability of Suicide Reduction Target in Korean Suicide Prevention Policy: Insights From Time Series Analysis
Seunghyong RYU ; Seon-Hwa BAEK ; Min JHON ; Honey KIM ; Ju-Yeon LEE ; Jae-Min KIM ; Sung-Wan KIM
Journal of Korean Medical Science 2025;40(19):e59-
Background:
This study evaluated the practicability of the suicide rate reduction target set by the current national suicide prevention policy in Korea, the fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention (2023–2027). This policy aims to lower the suicide rate from 26/100,000 in 2021 to 18.2/100,000 by 2027.
Methods:
We utilized monthly suicide statistics data from 2011 onwards. Using Bayesian regression and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, we conducted interrupted time series analyses to estimate the effect of the previous policy, the National Action Plan for Suicide Prevention (2018–2022), on suicide rates. We assumed this as the additional suicide reduction expected from the current policy. We generated point predictions and simulations for suicide rates from 2023 to 2027 using Bayesian regression and ARIMA models.
Results:
The interrupted time series analyses did not reveal a significant reduction in suicides attributable to the previous policy. Point predictions from the two models indicated that the suicide rate would remain approximately 24/100,000 in 2027. Almost all of the simulations of the 2027 suicide rate did not meet the policy target of 18.2/100,000.
Conclusion
The findings suggest that the Korean government’s suicide rate reduction target for 2027 is likely unattainable based on current trends and the limited effectiveness of previous policies. The objectives of suicide prevention policies should be evidence-based, attainable, and accountable.
2.Practicability of Suicide Reduction Target in Korean Suicide Prevention Policy: Insights From Time Series Analysis
Seunghyong RYU ; Seon-Hwa BAEK ; Min JHON ; Honey KIM ; Ju-Yeon LEE ; Jae-Min KIM ; Sung-Wan KIM
Journal of Korean Medical Science 2025;40(19):e59-
Background:
This study evaluated the practicability of the suicide rate reduction target set by the current national suicide prevention policy in Korea, the fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention (2023–2027). This policy aims to lower the suicide rate from 26/100,000 in 2021 to 18.2/100,000 by 2027.
Methods:
We utilized monthly suicide statistics data from 2011 onwards. Using Bayesian regression and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, we conducted interrupted time series analyses to estimate the effect of the previous policy, the National Action Plan for Suicide Prevention (2018–2022), on suicide rates. We assumed this as the additional suicide reduction expected from the current policy. We generated point predictions and simulations for suicide rates from 2023 to 2027 using Bayesian regression and ARIMA models.
Results:
The interrupted time series analyses did not reveal a significant reduction in suicides attributable to the previous policy. Point predictions from the two models indicated that the suicide rate would remain approximately 24/100,000 in 2027. Almost all of the simulations of the 2027 suicide rate did not meet the policy target of 18.2/100,000.
Conclusion
The findings suggest that the Korean government’s suicide rate reduction target for 2027 is likely unattainable based on current trends and the limited effectiveness of previous policies. The objectives of suicide prevention policies should be evidence-based, attainable, and accountable.
3.Practicability of Suicide Reduction Target in Korean Suicide Prevention Policy: Insights From Time Series Analysis
Seunghyong RYU ; Seon-Hwa BAEK ; Min JHON ; Honey KIM ; Ju-Yeon LEE ; Jae-Min KIM ; Sung-Wan KIM
Journal of Korean Medical Science 2025;40(19):e59-
Background:
This study evaluated the practicability of the suicide rate reduction target set by the current national suicide prevention policy in Korea, the fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention (2023–2027). This policy aims to lower the suicide rate from 26/100,000 in 2021 to 18.2/100,000 by 2027.
Methods:
We utilized monthly suicide statistics data from 2011 onwards. Using Bayesian regression and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, we conducted interrupted time series analyses to estimate the effect of the previous policy, the National Action Plan for Suicide Prevention (2018–2022), on suicide rates. We assumed this as the additional suicide reduction expected from the current policy. We generated point predictions and simulations for suicide rates from 2023 to 2027 using Bayesian regression and ARIMA models.
Results:
The interrupted time series analyses did not reveal a significant reduction in suicides attributable to the previous policy. Point predictions from the two models indicated that the suicide rate would remain approximately 24/100,000 in 2027. Almost all of the simulations of the 2027 suicide rate did not meet the policy target of 18.2/100,000.
Conclusion
The findings suggest that the Korean government’s suicide rate reduction target for 2027 is likely unattainable based on current trends and the limited effectiveness of previous policies. The objectives of suicide prevention policies should be evidence-based, attainable, and accountable.
4.Practicability of Suicide Reduction Target in Korean Suicide Prevention Policy: Insights From Time Series Analysis
Seunghyong RYU ; Seon-Hwa BAEK ; Min JHON ; Honey KIM ; Ju-Yeon LEE ; Jae-Min KIM ; Sung-Wan KIM
Journal of Korean Medical Science 2025;40(19):e59-
Background:
This study evaluated the practicability of the suicide rate reduction target set by the current national suicide prevention policy in Korea, the fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention (2023–2027). This policy aims to lower the suicide rate from 26/100,000 in 2021 to 18.2/100,000 by 2027.
Methods:
We utilized monthly suicide statistics data from 2011 onwards. Using Bayesian regression and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, we conducted interrupted time series analyses to estimate the effect of the previous policy, the National Action Plan for Suicide Prevention (2018–2022), on suicide rates. We assumed this as the additional suicide reduction expected from the current policy. We generated point predictions and simulations for suicide rates from 2023 to 2027 using Bayesian regression and ARIMA models.
Results:
The interrupted time series analyses did not reveal a significant reduction in suicides attributable to the previous policy. Point predictions from the two models indicated that the suicide rate would remain approximately 24/100,000 in 2027. Almost all of the simulations of the 2027 suicide rate did not meet the policy target of 18.2/100,000.
Conclusion
The findings suggest that the Korean government’s suicide rate reduction target for 2027 is likely unattainable based on current trends and the limited effectiveness of previous policies. The objectives of suicide prevention policies should be evidence-based, attainable, and accountable.
5.Changes in Suicide Rate Trend After Implementation of Suicide Prevention Policy: An Interrupted Time Series Study on the Fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention
Seunghyong RYU ; Seon-Hwa BAEK ; Min JHON ; Honey KIM ; Ju-Yeon LEE ; Jae-Min KIM ; Sung-Wan KIM
Journal of Korean Neuropsychiatric Association 2024;63(4):237-245
Objectives:
This study examined the shifts in the suicide trends in Korea during the initial phase of the Fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention, using interrupted time series analyses.
Methods:
Interrupted time series analyses were performed using the monthly suicide data from January 2011 to April 2024. Quasi-Poisson regression models were applied to evaluate the changes in the level and slope of the suicide trend before and after policy implementation. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Prophet models were used to compare the actual and predicted counterfactual numbers of suicides during the policy period.
Results:
The quasi-Poisson regression model revealed a significant change in the trend of suicides among men, with an increasing slope during the policy period. For total suicides, the ARIMA and Prophet models suggested that the actual number of suicides was significantly higher than the counterfactual number during the policy period, with excess suicides averaging between 113 and 150 per month. The actual number of suicides among men was significantly higher than the counterfactual number during the policy period, with excess suicides averaging between 86 and 92 per month. No significant changes in the suicide trends among women were observed.
Conclusion
These findings suggest that the initial effects of the Fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention were inadequate to curb the rising suicide trends, particularly among men. This study underscores the need for timely policy responses to reverse the current increasing trend in suicides, with particular focus on the male population.
6.Changes in Suicide Rate Trend After Implementation of Suicide Prevention Policy: An Interrupted Time Series Study on the Fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention
Seunghyong RYU ; Seon-Hwa BAEK ; Min JHON ; Honey KIM ; Ju-Yeon LEE ; Jae-Min KIM ; Sung-Wan KIM
Journal of Korean Neuropsychiatric Association 2024;63(4):237-245
Objectives:
This study examined the shifts in the suicide trends in Korea during the initial phase of the Fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention, using interrupted time series analyses.
Methods:
Interrupted time series analyses were performed using the monthly suicide data from January 2011 to April 2024. Quasi-Poisson regression models were applied to evaluate the changes in the level and slope of the suicide trend before and after policy implementation. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Prophet models were used to compare the actual and predicted counterfactual numbers of suicides during the policy period.
Results:
The quasi-Poisson regression model revealed a significant change in the trend of suicides among men, with an increasing slope during the policy period. For total suicides, the ARIMA and Prophet models suggested that the actual number of suicides was significantly higher than the counterfactual number during the policy period, with excess suicides averaging between 113 and 150 per month. The actual number of suicides among men was significantly higher than the counterfactual number during the policy period, with excess suicides averaging between 86 and 92 per month. No significant changes in the suicide trends among women were observed.
Conclusion
These findings suggest that the initial effects of the Fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention were inadequate to curb the rising suicide trends, particularly among men. This study underscores the need for timely policy responses to reverse the current increasing trend in suicides, with particular focus on the male population.
7.Changes in Suicide Rate Trend After Implementation of Suicide Prevention Policy: An Interrupted Time Series Study on the Fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention
Seunghyong RYU ; Seon-Hwa BAEK ; Min JHON ; Honey KIM ; Ju-Yeon LEE ; Jae-Min KIM ; Sung-Wan KIM
Journal of Korean Neuropsychiatric Association 2024;63(4):237-245
Objectives:
This study examined the shifts in the suicide trends in Korea during the initial phase of the Fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention, using interrupted time series analyses.
Methods:
Interrupted time series analyses were performed using the monthly suicide data from January 2011 to April 2024. Quasi-Poisson regression models were applied to evaluate the changes in the level and slope of the suicide trend before and after policy implementation. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Prophet models were used to compare the actual and predicted counterfactual numbers of suicides during the policy period.
Results:
The quasi-Poisson regression model revealed a significant change in the trend of suicides among men, with an increasing slope during the policy period. For total suicides, the ARIMA and Prophet models suggested that the actual number of suicides was significantly higher than the counterfactual number during the policy period, with excess suicides averaging between 113 and 150 per month. The actual number of suicides among men was significantly higher than the counterfactual number during the policy period, with excess suicides averaging between 86 and 92 per month. No significant changes in the suicide trends among women were observed.
Conclusion
These findings suggest that the initial effects of the Fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention were inadequate to curb the rising suicide trends, particularly among men. This study underscores the need for timely policy responses to reverse the current increasing trend in suicides, with particular focus on the male population.
8.Changes in Suicide Rate Trend After Implementation of Suicide Prevention Policy: An Interrupted Time Series Study on the Fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention
Seunghyong RYU ; Seon-Hwa BAEK ; Min JHON ; Honey KIM ; Ju-Yeon LEE ; Jae-Min KIM ; Sung-Wan KIM
Journal of Korean Neuropsychiatric Association 2024;63(4):237-245
Objectives:
This study examined the shifts in the suicide trends in Korea during the initial phase of the Fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention, using interrupted time series analyses.
Methods:
Interrupted time series analyses were performed using the monthly suicide data from January 2011 to April 2024. Quasi-Poisson regression models were applied to evaluate the changes in the level and slope of the suicide trend before and after policy implementation. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Prophet models were used to compare the actual and predicted counterfactual numbers of suicides during the policy period.
Results:
The quasi-Poisson regression model revealed a significant change in the trend of suicides among men, with an increasing slope during the policy period. For total suicides, the ARIMA and Prophet models suggested that the actual number of suicides was significantly higher than the counterfactual number during the policy period, with excess suicides averaging between 113 and 150 per month. The actual number of suicides among men was significantly higher than the counterfactual number during the policy period, with excess suicides averaging between 86 and 92 per month. No significant changes in the suicide trends among women were observed.
Conclusion
These findings suggest that the initial effects of the Fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention were inadequate to curb the rising suicide trends, particularly among men. This study underscores the need for timely policy responses to reverse the current increasing trend in suicides, with particular focus on the male population.
9.Two Cases of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Caused by a Motor Vehicle Accident Treated with Virtual Reality Exposure Therapy
Ju-Wan KIM ; Min JHON ; Hee-Ju KANG ; Sung-Wan KIM ; Jae-Min KIM
Clinical Psychopharmacology and Neuroscience 2024;22(1):194-199
Exposure-response prevention is an effective approach to treat anxiety disorders. Virtual reality exposure therapy (VRET) is a promising treatment for patients with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). New research has helped refine and update VRET. In this study, we introduce a form of VRET developed for patients suffering from PTSD after a traffic accident, and present two cases treated using this protocol. After 6 weeks of VRET treatment, the two participants not only improved their PTSD symptoms, but also improved their depressed mood, anxiety, and insomnia symptoms. Future studies of VRET for car accident-related PTSD should utilize a controlled design with randomization in order to account for numerous possible confounds.
10.Factors Associated With Depression Among Elderly Living Alone and Those Living With a Spouse in an Urban Area
Min JHON ; Seon-Young KIM ; Hee-Young SHIN ; Ju-Yeon LEE ; Sung-Wan KIM ; Jae-Min KIM ; Il-Seon SHIN
Journal of the Korean Society of Biological Therapies in Psychiatry 2024;30(1):9-16
Objectives:
This study aimed to investigate factors associated with depression among elderly living alone and those living with a spouse in an urban area.
Methods:
This study was a community-based, cross-sectional study that included 384 elderly aged 60 years or older.The subjects completed a questionnaire that covered sociodemographic characteristics and chronic medical illnesses.The Korean version of the Short Form of the Geriatric Depression Scale, the Korean version of the Quality of Life-Alzheimer’s Disease (KQOL-AD), and the Korean Mini Mental State Examination in the Korean version of the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer’s Disease assessment packet were also performed.
Results:
The participants were divided into two groups: 137 elderly individuals living alone and 247 elderly individuals living with a spouse. Heart disease (odds ratio [OR]=13.099, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.892-90.697, p=0.009) was identified as a risk factor for depression, while the religion (OR=0.137, 95% CI=0.028-0.668, p=0.014) was found to be a protective factor against depression among elderly individuals living alone. Higher scores on the KQOL-AD scale were found to be protective factors against depression for both elderly individuals living alone (OR=0.742, 95% CI= 0.636-0.867, p<0.001) and those living with a spouse (OR=0.664, 95% CI=0.573-0.771, p<0.001).
Conclusions
Among elderly living alone in an urban area, heart disease, religion, and the quality of life appear to have an impact on depression. To reduce the risk of depression in the elderly, it is necessary to properly manage heart disease, encourage religious participation, and enhance the quality of life.

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