OBJECTIVES: To develop an early atrial fibrillation (AF) risk prediction model based on large-scale electrocardiogram (ECG) data from the Chinese population. METHODS: The data of multiple ECG records of 30 383 patients admitted in the Chinese PLA General Hospital between 2009 and 2023 were randomly divided into the training set and the internal testing set in a 7:3 ratio. The predictive factors were selected based on the training set using univariate analysis, LASSO regression, and the Boruta algorithm. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to establish the ECG model and the composite model incorporating age, gender, and ECG model score. The discrimination power, calibration, and clinical net benefits of the models were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration curves, and decision curves. RESULTS: The cohort included 51.1% male patients with a median age of the patients of 51 (36, 62) years and an AF incidence of 4.5% (1370/30 383). In the ECG model, the parameters related to the P wave and QRS complex were identified as significant predictors. In the testing set, the AUROC of the ECG model for predicting 5-year AF risk was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.74-0.80), which was increased to 0.81 (95% CI: 0.78-0.83) after incorporating age and gender, with a net reclassification improvement of 0.123 and an integrated discrimination improvement of 0.04 (P<0.05). The calibration curve of the model was close to the diagonal line. Decision curve analysis showed that the clinical net benefit of the composite model was higher than that of the ECG model across the majority of threshold probability. CONCLUSIONS The composite model incorporating quantitative ECG features during sinus rhythm, along with age and gender, can effectively predict AF risk in the Chinese population, thus providing a low-cost screening tool for early AF risk assessment and management.
Humans ; Atrial Fibrillation/epidemiology* ; Electrocardiography ; Middle Aged ; Male ; Female ; China/epidemiology* ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Adult ; Risk Factors ; Risk Assessment ; East Asian People

Pelvic organ prolapse (POP), whose etiology is influenced by genetic and clinical risk factors, considerably impacts women's quality of life. However, the genetic underpinnings in non-European populations and comprehensive risk models integrating genetic and clinical factors remain underexplored. This study constructed the first polygenic risk score (PRS) for POP in the Chinese population by utilizing 20 disease-associated variants from the largest existing genome-wide association study. We analyzed a discovery cohort of 576 cases and 623 controls and a validation cohort of 264 cases and 200 controls. Results showed that the case group exhibited a significantly higher PRS than the control group. Moreover, the odds ratio of the top 10% risk group was 2.6 times higher than that of the bottom 10%. A high PRS was significantly correlated with POP occurrence in women older than 50 years old and in those with one or no childbirths. As far as we know, the integrated prediction model, which combined PRS and clinical risk factors, demonstrated better predictive accuracy than other existing PRS models. This combined risk assessment model serves as a robust tool for POP risk prediction and stratification, thereby offering insights into individualized preventive measures and treatment strategies in future clinical practice.
Humans ; Female ; Pelvic Organ Prolapse/epidemiology* ; Middle Aged ; Risk Assessment/methods* ; China/epidemiology* ; Multifactorial Inheritance ; Aged ; Risk Factors ; Genome-Wide Association Study ; Genetic Predisposition to Disease ; Case-Control Studies ; Adult ; Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide ; Genetic Risk Score ; East Asian People

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of lumbar spondylolysis (LS) and the proportion of spondylolytic spondylolisthesis (SS) in China, and to evaluate the musculoskeletal status of patients with LS and SS. METHODS: Spine Computed Tomography (CT) images were collected from community populations aged 40 and above in a nationwide multi-center project. LS was diagnosed, and SS was graded by an experienced radiologist. Bone mineral density (BMD) and paraspinal muscle parameters were quantified based on CT images. RESULTS: One hundred and seventeen patients of a total of 3,317 individuals were diagnosed with LS, corresponding to a prevalence rate of 3.53%. 63 of the 1,214 males (5.18%) and 54 of the 2,103 females (2.57%) were diagnosed with LS. SS occurred in 64/121 vertebrae (52.89%). BMD was not associated with LS ( P = 0.341). The L5 extensor paraspinal muscle density was higher in the LS group than in the non-LS group. In the LS group, patients with SS had a smaller L5 paraspinal extensor muscle cross-sectional area than those without SS ( P = 0.003). CONCLUSION The prevalence of LS in Chinese adults was 3.53%, with prevalence rates of 5.18% in males and 2.57% in females. Patients with LS have higher muscle density, whereas those with SS have smaller muscle cross-sectional areas at the L5 level.
Humans ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; China/epidemiology* ; Prevalence ; Adult ; Lumbar Vertebrae/diagnostic imaging* ; Spondylolysis/diagnostic imaging* ; Aged ; Bone Density ; Tomography, X-Ray Computed ; Aged, 80 and over ; Spondylolisthesis/epidemiology* ; East Asian People

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to explore the interplay between the life-course body mass index (BMI) trajectories and insulin resistance (IR) on incident diabetes. METHODS: This longitudinal cohort included 2,336 participants who had BMI repeatedly measured 3-8 times between 1989 and 2009, as well as glucose and insulin measured in 2009. BMI trajectories were identified using a latent class growth mixed model. The interplay between BMI trajectories and IR on diabetes was explored using the four-way effect decomposition method. Logistic regression and mediation models were used to estimate the interaction and mediation effects, respectively. RESULTS: Three distinct BMI trajectory groups were identified: low-stable ( n = 1,625), medium-increasing ( n = 613), and high-increasing ( n = 98). Both interaction and mediation effects of BMI trajectories and IR on incident diabetes were significant ( P < 0.05). The proportion of incident diabetes was higher in the IR-obesity than in the insulin-sensitivity (IS) obesity group (18.9% vs. 5.8%, P < 0.001). After adjusting for covariates, the odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) of the IR, IS-obesity, and IR-obesity groups vs. the normal group were 3.22 (2.05, 5.16), 2.05 (1.00, 3.97), and 7.98 (5.19, 12.62), respectively. IR mediated 10.7% of the total effect of BMI trajectories on incident diabetes ( P < 0.001). CONCLUSION We found strong interactions and weak mediation effects of IR on the relationship between life-course BMI trajectories and incident diabetes. IS-obesity is associated with a lower risk of incident diabetes than IR-obesity.
Humans ; Insulin Resistance ; Body Mass Index ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; China/epidemiology* ; Adult ; Longitudinal Studies ; Incidence ; Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology* ; Aged ; Obesity/epidemiology* ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/epidemiology* ; East Asian People

OBJECTIVE: To investigate hypertension (HTN) trends, key risk factors, and gender disparities in rural China, and to propose targeted strategies for improving HTN control in resource-limited settings. METHODS: This longitudinal study used data from the Henan Rural Cohort Study, including baseline (2015-2017; n = 39,224) and follow-up (2018-2022; n = 28,621) participants. HTN was defined as systolic/diastolic blood pressure ≥ 140/90 mmHg, self-reported diagnosis, or use of antihypertensive medication. Severity was classified using a 7-tier blood pressure (BP) staging system (optimal, normal, high normal, and HTN stages 1-4). A generalized linear mixed-effects model (GLMM) identified associated risk factors. RESULTS: HTN prevalence increased modestly from 32.7% (95% CI: 32.2-33.2) to 33.9% (95% CI: 33.3%-34.4%). Awareness and treatment improved from 20.1% to 25.3%, and from 18.8% to 24.4%, respectively, but control rates remained low (6.2% to 12.3%). After adjustment, women had a 1.53-fold higher HTN risk than men ( OR = 1.53, 95% CI: 1.43-1.63), revealing gender-specific trends. Key risk factors included alcohol use ( OR = 1.37, 95% CI: 1.27-1.47) and overweight status ( OR = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.66-1.86). BP staging showed an increase in optimal BP (42.3% to 45.8%), but stagnant management of advanced HTN stages. CONCLUSION Hypertension in rural China is shaped by behavioral risk factors and healthcare access gaps. Gender-sensitive, community-based interventions, including task-shifting models, are necessary to mitigate the growing burden of hypertension.
Humans ; Hypertension/etiology* ; China/epidemiology* ; Female ; Male ; Rural Population/statistics & numerical data* ; Prevalence ; Risk Factors ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Aged ; Longitudinal Studies ; Sex Factors ; Cohort Studies ; East Asian People

BACKGROUND: This cohort study aimed to identify the accumulation patterns of objectively measured ambulatory activity (AA) variables in the middle-aged and older Japanese women and examine the relationship of these derivative patterns with onset of metabolic syndrome (MetS). METHODS: A total of 794 women (mean age: 56.2 years) provided objectively assessed AA data using a uniaxial accelerometer. The number of steps, time accumulated in light-intensity AA (LIAA) and moderate-to-vigorous intensity AA (MVAA) and the ratio of MVAA to total AA (LIAA + MVAA) were calculated. Latent profile analysis was used to identify participant groups based on their distinct AA patterns. Logistic regression models were used to assess the association of groups with the onset of MetS after adjusting for age, sex, education, alcohol habit, smoking habit, energy intake, and the number of MetS components present at baseline. RESULTS: Four distinct groups were identified: Group A had low levels of the AA variable; group B accumulated a certain number or more steps primarily through MVAA; group C accumulated a certain number or more steps primarily through LIAA; and group D had high level of the AA variables. Over the course of the 5-year follow-up period, 61 participants (7.7%) developed MetS. The multivariate-adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for onset of MetS in groups B, C, and D relative to group A were 0.416 (0.166-1.218), 0.451 (0.223-0.914), and 0.933 (0.365-2.382), respectively. Group C had a significantly lower odds ratio of MetS onset than group A. CONCLUSION AA patterns accumulating a certain number or more steps, regardless of the intensity of AA, may help reduce the risk of MetS compared to inactive AA patterns.
Humans ; Metabolic Syndrome/etiology* ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Japan/epidemiology* ; Aged ; Exercise ; Cohort Studies ; Accelerometry ; Risk Factors ; East Asian People

BACKGROUND: To explore the associations of green tea, coffee, black tea, and oolong tea consumption with mortality from chronic kidney disease (CKD) as the underlying cause among Japanese adults. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of 110,585 men and women aged 40-79 years at recruitment from 1986 to 1990. Baseline information on the consumption of tea and coffee, lifestyles, and medical histories was obtained via self-administered questionnaires. We used multivariable Cox regression models to estimate sex-specific hazard ratios and 95% CIs of mortality from CKD associated with the consumption of green tea, coffee, black tea, or oolong tea. RESULTS: After a median 19-year follow-up, the hazard ratios of mortality from CKD in women were 0.49 (95% CI, 0.22-1.06) for 1-2 cups of green tea per day, 0.56 (0.31-0.99) for 3-4 cups per day, and 0.55 (0.32-0.93) for ≥5 cups per day, compared with <1 cup per day. No such association was found in men. Coffee, black tea, and oolong tea consumption were not associated with CKD risk in either sex. CONCLUSIONS Daily consumption of green tea was associated with a lower risk of mortality from CKD in women.
Humans ; Tea ; Coffee ; Middle Aged ; Male ; Female ; Japan/epidemiology* ; Renal Insufficiency, Chronic/epidemiology* ; Aged ; Adult ; Prospective Studies ; Risk Factors ; Proportional Hazards Models ; East Asian People

BACKGROUND: Quick accomplishment and responsiveness are behaviors related to time management by perceived control of time, such as a positive feeling of using one's time well. In recent years, positive psychological states have been associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Thus, we investigated the associations of quick accomplishment and responsiveness with CVD mortality in a large cohort study. METHODS: The study participants were 75,049 (30,901 men and 44,148 women) aged 40-79 between 1988 and 1990 and followed until the end of 2009. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of mortality from CVD according to quick accomplishment, responsiveness, and their combination were calculated after adjustment for potential confounding factors using the Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: Quick accomplishment was associated with a lower risk of CVD mortality in women; a similar but marginally significant association was observed in men; the respective multivariable HR (95%CI) was 0.91 (0.83-0.99) and 0.93 (0.86-1.01). The presence of both quick accomplishment and responsiveness was associated with lower risk in men, which was confined to men aged 60-79; the respective multivariable HR (95%CI) was 0.88 (0.78-0.99) and 0.83 (0.72-0.96). CONCLUSIONS Quick accomplishment was associated with a lower risk of CVD mortality. Quick accomplishment and responsiveness combined were inversely associated with CVD mortality risk among older men.
Adult ; Aged ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Cardiovascular Diseases/psychology* ; Cohort Studies ; Japan/epidemiology* ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Risk Factors ; East Asian People/psychology*

BACKGROUND: Deterioration in lifestyle associated with poor mental health could be an important concern during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. However, few studies have investigated the association between mental health status and lifestyle changes during the pandemic in nationwide Japanese general population. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted using the data among 1,546 participants of the follow-up study of NIPPON DATA2010 in 2021. Recent mental status, as assessed using the Kessler 6 (K6) scale, and lifestyle changes compared to before the pandemic were determined using self-reported questionnaires. Some lifestyle changes such as decreased physical activity were defined as undesirable, whereas others such as decreased alcohol drinking were defined as desirable. The participants were divided into three groups based on the K6 scores: the K6<5, 5≤K6<9, and K6≥9 groups. The odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the K6 groups for each lifestyle change compared with that in the K6<5 group were estimated after adjusting for possible confounders. RESULTS: The ORs of the K6≥9 group for all undesirable lifestyle changes were significantly high, especially increased alcohol drinking (OR 4.64; 95% CI, 2.71-7.93), and decreased physical activity (OR 4.63; 95% CI, 3.29-6.52). Among the desirable changes, the OR of the 5≤K6<9 group was significantly high for increased eating home cooking. CONCLUSIONS Poor mental health showed a significant association with undesirable lifestyle changes, especially increased alcohol drinking and decreased physical activity, in a nationwide general Japanese population during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology* ; Japan/epidemiology* ; Male ; Female ; Mental Health/statistics & numerical data* ; Middle Aged ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Life Style ; Adult ; Aged ; Exercise ; Alcohol Drinking/epidemiology* ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Pandemics ; East Asian People

BACKGROUND: Previous evidence showed that ambient air pollution and cardiovascular mortality are related. However, there is a lack of evidence towards the modification effect of long-term lifestyle on the association between short-term ambient air pollution and death from cardiovascular events. METHOD: A total of 14,609 death from major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) were identified among the China Kadoorie Biobank participants from 2013 to 2018. Ambient air pollution exposure including particulate matter 2.5 (PM_2.5), SO₂, NO₂, CO, and O₃ from the same period were obtained from space-time model reconstructions based on remote sensing data. Case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression was applied to estimate the effect of short-term exposure to air pollutants on MACE mortality. RESULTS: We found MACE mortality was significantly associated with PM_2.5 (relative percent increase 2.91% per 10 µg/m³ increase, 95% CI 1.32-4.53), NO₂ (5.37% per 10 µg/m³ increase, 95% CI 1.56-9.33), SO₂ (6.82% per 10 µg/m³ increase, 95% CI 2.99-10.80), and CO (2.24% per 0.1 mg/m³ increase, 95% CI 1.02-3.48). Stratified analyses indicated that drinking was associated with elevated risk of MACE mortality with NO₂ and SO₂ exposure; physical inactivity was associated with higher risk of death from MACE when exposed to PM_2.5; and people who had balanced diet had lower risk of MACE mortality when exposed to CO and NO₂. CONCLUSIONS The study results showed that short-term exposure to ambient PM_2.5, NO₂, SO₂, and CO would aggravate the risk of cardiovascular mortality, yet healthy lifestyle conduct might mitigate such negative impact to some extent.
Humans ; Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology* ; China/epidemiology* ; Male ; Female ; Air Pollution/adverse effects* ; Middle Aged ; Air Pollutants/analysis* ; Particulate Matter/analysis* ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects* ; Life Style ; Aged ; Adult ; Risk Factors ; Cross-Over Studies ; East Asian People