1.Correlation between extraocular muscle thickness and clinical activity score in thyroid-associated ophthalmopathy
Laijuan PENG ; Xu XU ; Zhongxu SUN ; Peng ZHU ; Ke MENG ; Tao ZHANG
International Eye Science 2026;26(7):1281-1286
AIM: To analysis the correlation between extraocular muscle thickness measured by quantitative CT analysis of orbital structures and clinical activity score(CAS)of thyroid-associated ophthalmopathy(TAO).METHODS:This was a retrospective analysis, selecting clinical data of TAO patients admitted to the hospital from October 2020 to February 2025. Healthy individuals were chosen from hospital's physical examination as the control group. All participants underwent CT examination, the superior rectus muscle, inferior rectus muscle, medial rectus muscle, lateral rectus muscle, orbital area, protrusion degree, and total cross-sectional area of extraocular muscles/total orbital area ratio(OM/TOA)from the two groups of participants were compared. CAS was used to evaluate TAO patients, and the correlation between CAS score and quantitative analysis indicators of CT orbital structure was analyzed. Quantitative analysis indicators for CT orbital structure in TAO patients at different stages of activity were compared, and the predictive value of these indicators for TAO patients at different activity stages was investigated.RESULTS:A total of 77 TAO patients were enrolled in this study, including 38 males and 39 females, with ages ranging from 28 to 70 y(mean age 49.5±6.9 y). There were 77 cases in the control group, including 40 males and 37 females, with ages ranging from 26 to 70 y(mean age 49.0±7.3 y). There was no significant difference in gender and age between the two groups(both P>0.05). The quantitative analysis of left eye, right eye, and binocular CT orbital structure in TAO group patients showed significantly higher indicators than the control group(all P<0.001), and the CAS score of TAO group was 3.94±1.51 points. The CAS score was positively correlated with various indicators of CT orbital structure quantitative analysis(all P<0.05). According to the CAS score results, 14 cases(28 eyes)of TAO patients with a CAS score<3 were classified as inactive phase, including 8 males and 6 females, with an average age of 43.79±9.58 y. A total of 63 cases(126 eyes)with a CAS score of ≥3 was classified as active phase, including 30 males and 33 females, with an average age of 50.78±5.47 y. There was no significant difference in gender among TAO patients with different active phases(P=0.519), but there was a significant difference in age(P<0.001). The quantitative indicators of CT orbital structure in inactive patients were significantly lower than those in active patients(P<0.05). Finally, the superior rectus muscle, age, and degree of protrusion were selected to be included in the Logistic regression model. The analysis results showed that there was a correlation between the superior rectus muscle index, degree of protrusion and TAO activity phase(P<0.05), while age, and TAO activity phase showed no significant correlation(P>0.05). The ROC curve analysis results showed that the area under the curve(AUC)was 0.863, the standard error was 0.063, P<0.001, and the 95% confidence interval(95% CI)of AUC was 0.740-0.985. The sensitivity of the model prediction was 73.0%, the specificity was 92.9%, and the Youden index was 0.659. The prediction accuracy was 97.9%, the recall rate was 73.0%, and the F1 value was 0.836. The predicted optimal critical value was 0.857. The predicted probability was 0.74.CONCLUSION:Quantitative CT analysis of orbital structures can be used to assess disease severity in TAO patients.
2.Cyclometalated iridium(III) complex based on isoquinoline alkaloid synergistically elicits the ICD response and IDO inhibition via autophagy-dependent ferroptosis.
Yuan LU ; Shan-Shan WANG ; Meng-Ya LI ; Rong LIU ; Meng-Fan ZHU ; Liang-Mei YANG ; Feng-Yang WANG ; Ke-Bin HUANG ; Hong LIANG
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B 2025;15(1):424-437
The development of anticancer drugs to treat triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is an ongoing challenge. Immunogenic cell death (ICD) has garnered considerable interest worldwide as a promising synergistic modality for cancer chemoimmunotherapy. However, only few drugs or treatment modalities can trigger an ICD response and none of them exert a considerable clinical effect against TNBC. Therefore, new agents with potentially effective chemoimmunotherapeutic response are required. In this study, five new cyclometalated Ir(III) complexes containing isoquinoline alkaloid CˆN ligands were designed and synthesized. Among them, Ir-1 exhibited the highest in vitro cytotoxicity. Mechanistically, Ir-1 could trigger autophagy-dependent ferroptosis and a subsequent ferroptosis-dependent ICD response as well as indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase (IDO) inhibition via reactive oxygen species (ROS)-mediated endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress in MDA-MB-231 cells. When immunocompetent BALB/c mice were vaccinated with Ir-1-treated dying TNBC cells, antitumor CD8+ T-cell response and Foxp3+ T-cell depletion were induced, resulting in long-lasting antitumor immunity in TNBC cells. Moreover, combination therapy with Ir-1 and anti-PD1 could substantially augment in vivo therapeutic effects. Based on these results, Ir-1 is a promising candidate for chemoimmunotherapy against TNBC and its effects are mediated synergistically via ICD induction and IDO blockage.
3.Celastrol directly targets LRP1 to inhibit fibroblast-macrophage crosstalk and ameliorates psoriasis progression.
Yuyu ZHU ; Lixin ZHAO ; Wei YAN ; Hongyue MA ; Wanjun ZHAO ; Jiao QU ; Wei ZHENG ; Chenyang ZHANG ; Haojie DU ; Meng YU ; Ning WAN ; Hui YE ; Yicheng XIE ; Bowen KE ; Qiang XU ; Haiyan SUN ; Yang SUN ; Zijun OUYANG
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B 2025;15(2):876-891
Psoriasis is an incurable chronic inflammatory disease that requires new interventions. Here, we found that fibroblasts exacerbate psoriasis progression by promoting macrophage recruitment via CCL2 secretion by single-cell multi-omics analysis. The natural small molecule celastrol was screened to interfere with the secretion of CCL2 by fibroblasts and improve the psoriasis-like symptoms in both murine and cynomolgus monkey models. Mechanistically, celastrol directly bound to the low-density lipoprotein receptor-related protein 1 (LRP1) β-chain and abolished its binding to the transcription factor c-Jun in the nucleus, which in turn inhibited CCL2 production by skin fibroblasts, blocked fibroblast-macrophage crosstalk, and ameliorated psoriasis progression. Notably, fibroblast-specific LRP1 knockout mice exhibited a significant reduction in psoriasis like inflammation. Taken together, from clinical samples and combined with various mouse models, we revealed the pathogenesis of psoriasis from the perspective of fibroblast-macrophage crosstalk, and provided a foundation for LRP1 as a novel potential target for psoriasis treatment.
4.Changing resistance profiles of Haemophilus influenzae and Moraxella catarrhalis isolates in hospitals across China:results from the CHINET Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Program,2015-2021
Hui FAN ; Chunhong SHAO ; Jia WANG ; Yang YANG ; Fupin HU ; Demei ZHU ; Yunsheng CHEN ; Qing MENG ; Hong ZHANG ; Chun WANG ; Fang DONG ; Wenqi SONG ; Kaizhen WEN ; Yirong ZHANG ; Chuanqing WANG ; Pan FU ; Chao ZHUO ; Danhong SU ; Jiangwei KE ; Shuping ZHOU ; Hua ZHANG ; Fangfang HU ; Mei KANG ; Chao HE ; Hua YU ; Xiangning HUANG ; Yingchun XU ; Xiaojiang ZHANG ; Wenen LIU ; Yanming LI ; Lei ZHU ; Jinhua MENG ; Shifu WANG ; Bin SHAN ; Yan DU ; Wei JIA ; Gang LI ; Jiao FENG ; Ping GONG ; Miao SONG ; Lianhua WEI ; Xin WANG ; Ruizhong WANG ; Hua FANG ; Sufang GUO ; Yanyan WANG ; Dawen GUO ; Jinying ZHAO ; Lixia ZHANG ; Juan MA ; Han SHEN ; Wanqing ZHOU ; Ruyi GUO ; Yan ZHU ; Jinsong WU ; Yuemei LU ; Yuxing NI ; Jingrong SUN ; Xiaobo MA ; Yanqing ZHENG ; Yunsong YU ; Jie LIN ; Ziyong SUN ; Zhongju CHEN ; Zhidong HU ; Jin LI ; Fengbo ZHANG ; Ping JI ; Yunjian HU ; Xiaoman AI ; Jinju DUAN ; Jianbang KANG ; Xuefei HU ; Xuesong XU ; Chao YAN ; Yi LI ; Shanmei WANG ; Hongqin GU ; Yuanhong XU ; Ying HUANG ; Yunzhuo CHU ; Sufei TIAN ; Jihong LI ; Bixia YU ; Cunshan KOU ; Jilu SHEN ; Wenhui HUANG ; Xiuli YANG ; Likang ZHU ; Lin JIANG ; Wen HE ; Chunlei YUE
Chinese Journal of Infection and Chemotherapy 2025;25(1):30-38
Objective To investigate the distribution and antimicrobial resistance profiles of clinically isolated Haemophilus influenzae and Moraxella catarrhalis in hospitals across China from 2015 to 2021,and provide evidence for rational use of antimicrobial agents.Methods Data of H.influenzae and M.catarrhalis strains isolated from 2015 to 2021 in CHINET program were collected for analysis,and antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed by disc diffusion method or automated systems according to the uniform protocol of CHINET.The results were interpreted according to the CLSI breakpoints in 2022.Beta-lactamases was detected by using nitrocefin disk.Results From 2015 to 2021,a total of 43 642 strains of Haemophilus species were isolated,accounting for 2.91%of the total clinical isolates and 4.07%of Gram-negative bacteria in CHINET program.Among the 40 437 strains of H.influenzae,66.89%were isolated from children and 33.11%were isolated from adults.More than 90%of the H.influenzae strains were isolated from respiratory tract specimens.The prevalence of β-lactamase was 53.79%in H.influenzae strains.The H.influenzae strains isolated from children showed higher resistance rate than the strains isolated from adults.Overall,779 strains of H.influenzae did not produce β-lactamase but were resistant to ampicillin(BLNAR).Beta-lactamase-producing strains showed significantly higher resistance rates to these antimicrobial agents than the β-lactamase-nonproducing strains.Of the 16 191 M.catarrhalis strains,80.06%were isolated from children and 19.94%isolated from adults.M.catarrhalis strains were mostly susceptible to both amoxicillin-clavulanic acid and cefuroxime,evidenced by resistance rate lower than 2.0%.Conclusions The emergence of antibiotic-resistant H.influenzae due to β-lactamase production poses a challenge for clinical anti-infective treatment.Therefore,it is very important to implement antibiotic resistance surveillance for H.influenzae and guide rational antibiotic use.All local clinical microbiology laboratories should actively improve antibiotic susceptibility testing and strengthen antibiotic resistance surveillance for H.influenzae.
5.Changing resistance profiles of Haemophilus influenzae and Moraxella catarrhalis isolates in hospitals across China:results from the CHINET Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Program,2015-2021
Hui FAN ; Chunhong SHAO ; Jia WANG ; Yang YANG ; Fupin HU ; Demei ZHU ; Yunsheng CHEN ; Qing MENG ; Hong ZHANG ; Chun WANG ; Fang DONG ; Wenqi SONG ; Kaizhen WEN ; Yirong ZHANG ; Chuanqing WANG ; Pan FU ; Chao ZHUO ; Danhong SU ; Jiangwei KE ; Shuping ZHOU ; Hua ZHANG ; Fangfang HU ; Mei KANG ; Chao HE ; Hua YU ; Xiangning HUANG ; Yingchun XU ; Xiaojiang ZHANG ; Wenen LIU ; Yanming LI ; Lei ZHU ; Jinhua MENG ; Shifu WANG ; Bin SHAN ; Yan DU ; Wei JIA ; Gang LI ; Jiao FENG ; Ping GONG ; Miao SONG ; Lianhua WEI ; Xin WANG ; Ruizhong WANG ; Hua FANG ; Sufang GUO ; Yanyan WANG ; Dawen GUO ; Jinying ZHAO ; Lixia ZHANG ; Juan MA ; Han SHEN ; Wanqing ZHOU ; Ruyi GUO ; Yan ZHU ; Jinsong WU ; Yuemei LU ; Yuxing NI ; Jingrong SUN ; Xiaobo MA ; Yanqing ZHENG ; Yunsong YU ; Jie LIN ; Ziyong SUN ; Zhongju CHEN ; Zhidong HU ; Jin LI ; Fengbo ZHANG ; Ping JI ; Yunjian HU ; Xiaoman AI ; Jinju DUAN ; Jianbang KANG ; Xuefei HU ; Xuesong XU ; Chao YAN ; Yi LI ; Shanmei WANG ; Hongqin GU ; Yuanhong XU ; Ying HUANG ; Yunzhuo CHU ; Sufei TIAN ; Jihong LI ; Bixia YU ; Cunshan KOU ; Jilu SHEN ; Wenhui HUANG ; Xiuli YANG ; Likang ZHU ; Lin JIANG ; Wen HE ; Chunlei YUE
Chinese Journal of Infection and Chemotherapy 2025;25(1):30-38
Objective To investigate the distribution and antimicrobial resistance profiles of clinically isolated Haemophilus influenzae and Moraxella catarrhalis in hospitals across China from 2015 to 2021,and provide evidence for rational use of antimicrobial agents.Methods Data of H.influenzae and M.catarrhalis strains isolated from 2015 to 2021 in CHINET program were collected for analysis,and antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed by disc diffusion method or automated systems according to the uniform protocol of CHINET.The results were interpreted according to the CLSI breakpoints in 2022.Beta-lactamases was detected by using nitrocefin disk.Results From 2015 to 2021,a total of 43 642 strains of Haemophilus species were isolated,accounting for 2.91%of the total clinical isolates and 4.07%of Gram-negative bacteria in CHINET program.Among the 40 437 strains of H.influenzae,66.89%were isolated from children and 33.11%were isolated from adults.More than 90%of the H.influenzae strains were isolated from respiratory tract specimens.The prevalence of β-lactamase was 53.79%in H.influenzae strains.The H.influenzae strains isolated from children showed higher resistance rate than the strains isolated from adults.Overall,779 strains of H.influenzae did not produce β-lactamase but were resistant to ampicillin(BLNAR).Beta-lactamase-producing strains showed significantly higher resistance rates to these antimicrobial agents than the β-lactamase-nonproducing strains.Of the 16 191 M.catarrhalis strains,80.06%were isolated from children and 19.94%isolated from adults.M.catarrhalis strains were mostly susceptible to both amoxicillin-clavulanic acid and cefuroxime,evidenced by resistance rate lower than 2.0%.Conclusions The emergence of antibiotic-resistant H.influenzae due to β-lactamase production poses a challenge for clinical anti-infective treatment.Therefore,it is very important to implement antibiotic resistance surveillance for H.influenzae and guide rational antibiotic use.All local clinical microbiology laboratories should actively improve antibiotic susceptibility testing and strengthen antibiotic resistance surveillance for H.influenzae.
6.Clinical efficacy of TIPS combined with main splenic artery embolization in the treatment of portal hypertension upper gastrointestinal bleeding complicated with extensive portal vein thrombosis
Mingming MENG ; Zhibin WANG ; Yifan LYU ; Bing ZHU ; Bowen LIU ; Hua TIAN ; Dongze LI ; Fuchuan WANG ; Ke ZHANG ; Li JIANG ; Huiguo DING ; Yuening ZHANG ; Ying HAN ; Fuquan LIU
Chinese Journal of Hepatobiliary Surgery 2025;31(7):487-491
Objective:To analyze the efficacy of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) combined with main splenic artery embolization in the treatment of patients with portal hypertension upper gastrointestinal bleeding complicated with extensive portal vein thrombosis (PVT).Methods:This study was a prospective, single-center, open-label, single-arm clinical trial. In the first phase, 81 patients with portal hypertension upper gastrointestinal bleeding who were admitted to Beijing Shijitan Hospital, Capital Medical University from January 2018 to December 2018 were consecutively enrolled, including 57 males and 24 females, with the age of (51.3±10.4) years. During TIPS surgery, the pressure of the portal vein before and after the balloon blocking the splenic artery was measured to clarify the contribution of the splenic artery to portal hypertension. In the second stage, from January 2019 to December 2022, 104 patients with portal hypertension upper gastrointestinal bleeding complicated with extensive PVT were re-enrolled, including 71 males and 33 females, with the age of (50.9±12.5) years. TIPS combined with main splenic artery embolization was performed, and portal vein pressure was measured before and after embolization. Follow up on the postoperative esophageal and gastric varices of the patients in the second stage.Results:The portal vein pressures before and after the first stage of balloon occlusion of the splenic artery were (35.2±8.4) mmHg (1 mmHg=0.133 kPa) and (24.2±6.3) mmHg, respectively. The pressure after occlusion was lower than that before occlusion, and the difference was statistically significant ( t=10.54, P<0.001). The portal vein pressures before and after the second stage embolization were (36.1±9.5) mmHg and (21.1±4.7) mmHg respectively. The pressure after embolization was lower than that before embolization, and the difference was statistically significant ( t=13.47, P<0.001). In the second stage, among the 104 patients, the proportion of those whose varicose veins disappeared or improved 6 months after the operation was 43.3%(45/104) and 51.0%(53/104), respectively. There were no patients with aggravation or rebleeding due to rupture. One year later, 8 patients (7.7%) had aggravated or ruptured esophageal and gastric varices with bleeding. Two years later, 12 patients (11.5%) had aggravated or bleeding. Conclusion:TIPS combined with main splenic artery embolization can effectively reduce the portal vein pressure in patients with portal hypertension upper gastrointestinal bleeding complicated with extensive PVT, improve the degree of esophageal and gastric varices, and reduce the risk of gastrointestinal bleeding.
7.Clinical efficacy of TIPS combined with main splenic artery embolization in the treatment of portal hypertension upper gastrointestinal bleeding complicated with extensive portal vein thrombosis
Mingming MENG ; Zhibin WANG ; Yifan LYU ; Bing ZHU ; Bowen LIU ; Hua TIAN ; Dongze LI ; Fuchuan WANG ; Ke ZHANG ; Li JIANG ; Huiguo DING ; Yuening ZHANG ; Ying HAN ; Fuquan LIU
Chinese Journal of Hepatobiliary Surgery 2025;31(7):487-491
Objective:To analyze the efficacy of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) combined with main splenic artery embolization in the treatment of patients with portal hypertension upper gastrointestinal bleeding complicated with extensive portal vein thrombosis (PVT).Methods:This study was a prospective, single-center, open-label, single-arm clinical trial. In the first phase, 81 patients with portal hypertension upper gastrointestinal bleeding who were admitted to Beijing Shijitan Hospital, Capital Medical University from January 2018 to December 2018 were consecutively enrolled, including 57 males and 24 females, with the age of (51.3±10.4) years. During TIPS surgery, the pressure of the portal vein before and after the balloon blocking the splenic artery was measured to clarify the contribution of the splenic artery to portal hypertension. In the second stage, from January 2019 to December 2022, 104 patients with portal hypertension upper gastrointestinal bleeding complicated with extensive PVT were re-enrolled, including 71 males and 33 females, with the age of (50.9±12.5) years. TIPS combined with main splenic artery embolization was performed, and portal vein pressure was measured before and after embolization. Follow up on the postoperative esophageal and gastric varices of the patients in the second stage.Results:The portal vein pressures before and after the first stage of balloon occlusion of the splenic artery were (35.2±8.4) mmHg (1 mmHg=0.133 kPa) and (24.2±6.3) mmHg, respectively. The pressure after occlusion was lower than that before occlusion, and the difference was statistically significant ( t=10.54, P<0.001). The portal vein pressures before and after the second stage embolization were (36.1±9.5) mmHg and (21.1±4.7) mmHg respectively. The pressure after embolization was lower than that before embolization, and the difference was statistically significant ( t=13.47, P<0.001). In the second stage, among the 104 patients, the proportion of those whose varicose veins disappeared or improved 6 months after the operation was 43.3%(45/104) and 51.0%(53/104), respectively. There were no patients with aggravation or rebleeding due to rupture. One year later, 8 patients (7.7%) had aggravated or ruptured esophageal and gastric varices with bleeding. Two years later, 12 patients (11.5%) had aggravated or bleeding. Conclusion:TIPS combined with main splenic artery embolization can effectively reduce the portal vein pressure in patients with portal hypertension upper gastrointestinal bleeding complicated with extensive PVT, improve the degree of esophageal and gastric varices, and reduce the risk of gastrointestinal bleeding.
8.Analysis of components migrating to blood and metabolites of Polygonum cuspidatum in rats with acute gouty arthritis
Caiyi KE ; Meng SHEN ; Li JI ; Xuechun WANG ; Yuqing ZHU ; Xi CHEN ; Chengweiqi WANG ; Qun MA
China Pharmacy 2025;36(13):1581-1586
OBJECTIVE To analyze the components migrating to blood and metabolites of Polygonum cuspidatum in rats with acute gouty arthritis(AGA).METHODS SD rats were randomly divided into blank group,model group and P.cuspidatum group(10 g/kg,by raw material),with 6 rats in each group.Except for blank group,AGA model was induced in the remaining groups by injecting potassium oxonate and sodium urate;meanwhile,they were administered corresponding drug solutions or water intragastrically,once a day,for 10 consecutive days.The histopathological morphology of the knee joint tissues in rats was observed;rat serum samples were collected,and the components migrating to blood and metabolites of P.cuspidatum were analyzed by using UPLC-Q-Exactive-Orbitrap-MS.RESULTS Following the intervention with P.cuspidatum,the histopathological morphology of the knee joint synovial tissue in AGA rats showed significant improvement,with reduced inflammatory cell infiltration and hyperplasia,and the preservation of the honeycomb-like structure integrity.In both positive and negative ion modes,a total of 67 chemical components were detected in the serum of rats from P.cuspidatum group,including 25 prototype components and 42 metabolites.The involved compound types encompassed stilbenes,anthraquinones,naphthols,and flavonoids,among others.The metabolic reactions identified included methylation,acetylation,sulfation,and glucuronidation.Notably,compounds such as polydatin,resveratrol and emodin were capable of entering the bloodstream in their prototype forms and undergoing in vivo metabolism.CONCLUSIONS Compounds such as polydatin,resveratrol and emodin are likely to be the active components responsible for the anti-AGA effects of P.cuspidatum.
9.A new suberin from roots of Ephedra sinica Stapf
Bo-wen ZHANG ; Meng LI ; Xiao-lan WANG ; Ying YANG ; Shi-qi ZHOU ; Si-qi TAO ; Meng YANG ; Deng-hui ZHU ; Ya-tong XU ; Wei-sheng FENG ; Xiao-ke ZHENG
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica 2024;59(3):661-666
Six compounds were isolated from the roots of
10.Risk factors and prediction model for periprosthetic femoral fracture after total knee arthroplasty in the elderly
Meng ZHU ; Xue-Yu HU ; Ting-Ting ZHAO ; Rong QIU ; Ke LEI ; Yao SONG
Journal of Regional Anatomy and Operative Surgery 2024;33(2):157-161
Objective To investigate the risk factors of periprosthetic femoral fracture(PFF)after total knee arthroplasty(TKA)in the elderly and to construct a predictive model for the prevention of PFF after clinical operation.Methods The clinical data of 537 elderly patients who underwent TKA in the orthopedic department of the First Affiliated Hospital of Air Medical University from October 2016 to October 2021 were retrospectively analyzed.The occurrence of PFF during the follow-up period was statistically analyzed and the clinical data were collected.Binary Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors of PFF after TKA in the elderly,and a predictive model of PFF after TKA in the elderly was constructed based on the risk factors.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow(H-L)were used to test the discrimination and calibration of prediction model.Results The patients were followed up for 12 to 72 months after discharge,with a median time of 47 months.During the follow-up period,31 patients(5.77%)developed PFF.Age,osteoporosis,Parkinson's disease and anterior femoral notch(AFN)were the risk factors for PFF after TKA in the elderly(P<0.05),and cross fixation of prosthesis and bone cement fixation were the protective factors(P<0.05).The results of H-L test showed that the risk prediction model of PFF after TKA in the elderly had good calibration(P>0.05).ROC curve analysis showed that the risk prediction model of PFF after TKA in the elderly has high discrimination(area under the curve was 0.858,95%CI:0.826 to 0.887),the sensitivity was 83.87%,the specificity was 88.34%.Conclusion The risk of PFF after TKA in the elderly is high,and prevention should be carried out according to the high risk factors.The prediction model constructed based on the high risk factors has good prediction efficiency.

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