1.Construction and validation of a nomogram for predicting the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma based on serum abnormal prothrombin and alpha-fetoprotein
Long YU ; Xiangkun WANG ; Xudong ZHANG ; Zhongyuan LIU ; Yuxiang GUO ; Maosen WANG ; Qingfang HAN ; Renfeng LI
Chinese Journal of Hepatobiliary Surgery 2025;31(1):1-5
Objective:To construct a nomogram model for predicting the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma based on serum abnormal prothrombin and alpha-fetoprotein and evaluate the predictive effect.Methods:Retrospective analysis of data from 351 patients with liver disease who received treatment at the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2021 to December 2023, including 285 males and 66 females, aged (52.9±11.9) years. Among the 351 patients, there were 229 cases (65.2%) of hepatocellular carcinoma, 87 cases (24.8%) of liver cirrhosis, and 35 cases (10.0%) of chronic hepatitis B. All patients were randomly divided into a training set ( n=245) and a testing set ( n=106) in a 7∶3 ratio without replacement sampling. The training set was used to construct the model, and the testing set was used to evaluate the model. At the same time, gender, age, disease type, and other indicators were compared between the two sets. The risk factors of hepatocellular carcinoma were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression based on the training set, and a nomogram was constructed to predict the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma based on the multivariate results. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive performance of nomogram, and decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the clinical applicability of the model. Results:There was no statistically significant difference in age, gender, disease type, etc. between the training and testing sets of patients (all P>0.05). Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that age, abnormal prothrombin logarithm (LnPIVKA-Ⅱ), alpha-fetoprotein logarithm (LnAFP), and diabetes were associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (all P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that older age ( OR=1.07, 95% CI: 1.03-1.12), higher LnPIVKA-Ⅱ ( OR=2.97, 95% CI: 1.97-4.46), higher LnAFP ( OR=1.43, 95% CI: 1.11-1.84) and diabetes ( OR=5.17, 95% CI: 1.02-26.17) were risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma (all P<0.05). Based on the above variables, a nomogram model for predicting the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma was constructed. The area under the ROC curve analysis of the nomogram for predicting the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma was 0.920 (95% CI: 0.886-0.953) in the training set and 0.934 (95% CI: 0.891-0.977) in the testing set. The calibration curve fit well with the standard curve, and the prediction was basically consistent with the actual situation. The decision curve analysis showed that the net benefit of the model was greater than 0 under most thresholds (0.1-1.0). Conclusion:The nomogram constructed based on age, LnPIVKA-Ⅱ, LnAFP and diabetes can effectively predict the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma and has clinical applicability.
2.Construction and validation of a nomogram for predicting the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma based on serum abnormal prothrombin and alpha-fetoprotein
Long YU ; Xiangkun WANG ; Xudong ZHANG ; Zhongyuan LIU ; Yuxiang GUO ; Maosen WANG ; Qingfang HAN ; Renfeng LI
Chinese Journal of Hepatobiliary Surgery 2025;31(1):1-5
Objective:To construct a nomogram model for predicting the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma based on serum abnormal prothrombin and alpha-fetoprotein and evaluate the predictive effect.Methods:Retrospective analysis of data from 351 patients with liver disease who received treatment at the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2021 to December 2023, including 285 males and 66 females, aged (52.9±11.9) years. Among the 351 patients, there were 229 cases (65.2%) of hepatocellular carcinoma, 87 cases (24.8%) of liver cirrhosis, and 35 cases (10.0%) of chronic hepatitis B. All patients were randomly divided into a training set ( n=245) and a testing set ( n=106) in a 7∶3 ratio without replacement sampling. The training set was used to construct the model, and the testing set was used to evaluate the model. At the same time, gender, age, disease type, and other indicators were compared between the two sets. The risk factors of hepatocellular carcinoma were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression based on the training set, and a nomogram was constructed to predict the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma based on the multivariate results. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive performance of nomogram, and decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the clinical applicability of the model. Results:There was no statistically significant difference in age, gender, disease type, etc. between the training and testing sets of patients (all P>0.05). Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that age, abnormal prothrombin logarithm (LnPIVKA-Ⅱ), alpha-fetoprotein logarithm (LnAFP), and diabetes were associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (all P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that older age ( OR=1.07, 95% CI: 1.03-1.12), higher LnPIVKA-Ⅱ ( OR=2.97, 95% CI: 1.97-4.46), higher LnAFP ( OR=1.43, 95% CI: 1.11-1.84) and diabetes ( OR=5.17, 95% CI: 1.02-26.17) were risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma (all P<0.05). Based on the above variables, a nomogram model for predicting the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma was constructed. The area under the ROC curve analysis of the nomogram for predicting the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma was 0.920 (95% CI: 0.886-0.953) in the training set and 0.934 (95% CI: 0.891-0.977) in the testing set. The calibration curve fit well with the standard curve, and the prediction was basically consistent with the actual situation. The decision curve analysis showed that the net benefit of the model was greater than 0 under most thresholds (0.1-1.0). Conclusion:The nomogram constructed based on age, LnPIVKA-Ⅱ, LnAFP and diabetes can effectively predict the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma and has clinical applicability.
3.Advances in the diagnosis and treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma with bile duct tumor thrombus
Yuxiang GUO ; Maosen WANG ; Zhongyuan LIU ; Xudong ZHANG ; Pengfei MA ; Xiangkun WANG ; Renfeng LI
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2025;41(2):359-364
Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with biliary duct tumor thrombus (BDTT) is currently not common in clinical practice and is easily misdiagnosed, and previously, it was often considered an advanced stage of the disease with a poor prognosis, making its treatment challenging. However, in-depth studies in recent years have gradually deepened our understanding of this disease, leading to significant changes in diagnostic and treatment concepts. Currently, comprehensive treatment, mainly surgery, is used for treatment, but there is still controversy over the selection of clinical treatment strategies. This article provides a detailed discussion on surgical methods and prognosis, in order to provide a reference for clinical treatment options.
4.Refractive Progression and Related Factors in Myopic School-age Children in Ethnic Minority Areas of Yunnan
Maosen CHEN ; Dafeng HUANG ; Peiqian LI ; Jie XIAO ; Zixue MA ; Chao FAN ; Yayi DAI ; Han ZHANG ; Ying HUANG
Journal of Kunming Medical University 2025;46(1):9-15
Objective To understand the refractive progression of myopic school-aged children in ethnic minority areas of Yunnan and explore related factors.Methods Based on an existing cohort,a first follow-up survey was conducted from October 2020 to June 2021 involving 1,774 students selected from three ethnic minority areas:Dali City(Bai ethnic group),Lijiang Ancient Town(Naxi ethnic group),and Menghai County in Xishuangbanna(Dai and Hani ethnic groups).Among them,816 myopic school-aged children at baseline were selected as research subjects to analyze changes in refractive error(△SE)and the degree of refractive progression(classified as rapid △SE and slow △SE)over one year.Binary logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors of refractive progression.Results After one year of follow-up,the change in refractive error for myopic school-aged children was-0.63(-1.00,-0.25)D,with 518 children experiencing rapid △SE and 298 children experiencing slow △SE.Comparisons by educational stage indicated that Dai ethnic group children in primary school were more likely to experience rapid △SE than those in junior high school(P<0.05).Logistic regression results showed that school-age children of Naxi ethnic group(OR=1.879,95%CI:1.132~2.999),and those who used their eyes in the classroom during breaks(OR=1.541,95%CI:1.088~2.181)were at higher risk of rapid refractive progression(P<0.05).Children of school age who engage in outdoor activities for at least 3 hours during the day(OR=0.539,95%CI:0.340~0.853)and those who frequently consume animal liver(OR=0.596,95%CI:0.399~0.892)have a lower risk of rapid myopic progression(P<0.05).Conclusion Myopic school-aged children in ethnic minority areas of Yunnan exhibit rapid refractive progression,with significant ethnic differen-ces.The refractive progression in these children is closely related to lifestyle habits,highlighting the need for targeted myopia prevention and control measures and research for children and adolescents in ethnic minority areas of Yunnan.
5.Changes of axial length in primary and secondary school students in Yunnan and associated factors
XIAO Jie,SU Meihui,LI Peiqian,HUANG Dafeng,LI Xixi,MA Zixue,LUO Xiao,CHEN Maosen,HUANG Ying
Chinese Journal of School Health 2024;45(1):133-137
Objective:
To explore the pattern of change of axial length/curvatrue radius ratio (AL/CR) and associated factors in primary and secondary school students in Yunnan, so as to provide scientific basis and prospective guidance for early myopia intervention and control.
Methods:
A total of 685 students from grades 2 to 3 and grade 7 in 2 cities/counties in Yunnan Province were selected by multi stage stratified random cluster sampling method in 2020. All the participants were followed up twice with questionnaire of myopia related factors, uncorrected distance visual acuity, and refractive parameter measurement from October,2021 and March,2023,respectivelty. The distribution and change of AL/CR in different classes and groups were analyzed, and the influencing factos of AL/CR cumulative progression were explored using generalized linear model.
Results:
AL/CR ratio in primary school students was (2.95±0.09) at baseline, increased to (2.99±0.11) at the first follow up and (3.04±0.12) at the second follow up. AL/CR ratio in middle school students(3.08±0.13) at baseline, increased to (3.12±0.15) at the first follow up and (3.15±0.14) at the second follow up. The generalized linear model showed that after controlling for environmental factors, ethnicity ( β =-0.017) , cumulative progression of the SE ( β =-0.027) influenced the changes of AL/CR ratio among the primary school students, whereas the changes of AL/CR ratio were associated with baseline AL ( β =-0.005), baseline corneal curvatrue radius ( β =0.032) and cumulative progression of SE( β =-0.035) among middle school students ( P <0.05).
Conclusions
The AL/CR ratio of primary and secondary school students in Yunnan can be used to judge different refractive status types, but its variation is not only related to SE progression, but also affected by different ethnic groups and baseline ocular biological parameters. so the value of AL/CR application in assessing the progression of myopia needs to be further confirmed.
6.Ocular biometric parameters among primary and secondary school students of Naxi,Bai and Han ethnicity in Yunnan Province
Qiang ZHANG ; Litao CHANG ; Peiqian LI ; Jie XIAO ; Dafeng HUANG ; Xueni XIE ; Jin-Jiao ZHANG ; Zixue MA ; Qianqian LI ; Xiao LUO ; Maosen CHEN ; Ying HUANG
Recent Advances in Ophthalmology 2024;44(5):365-369
Objective To assess ocular biometric parameters among primary and secondary school students from Naxi,Bai and Han ethnic groups in Yunnan Province.Methods The school-based study was conducted in October 2020.A total of 724 second-,third-and seventh-graders were selected from Dali and Lijiang,where Bai and Naxi ethnic groups inhabit,using a stratified cluster sampling method to receive questionnaire surveys and eye examinations.Non-cycloplegic spherical equivalent(SE),axial length(AL),anterior chamber depth(ACD),corneal radius of curvature(CR),central corneal thickness(CCT),white-to-white(WTW)distance,and the AL/CR ratio were measured.Covariance analysis was used to examine the differences in SE and ocular biometric parameters in terms of ethnicity,sex and grade,while Pearson correlation was used to test the associations among the said indicators.Results There were no significant differences in daily outdoor time,screen time and sleep time among the three ethnic groups regardless of grades(all P>0.05).The mean CCT of Naxi students was lower than that of Han and Bai students[grade 2 and grade 3:(542.48±39.76)μm vs.(553.81±31.83)μm and(559.27±32.79)μm;grade7:(538.86±34.91)μm vs.(547.41±33.55)μm and(548.26± 32.98)μm,all P<0.05],while no significant differences were found in the other ocular biometric parameters among the three ethnic groups(all P>0.05).Among the seventh-graders,the SE,AL and AL/CR ratio of Naxi students were signifi-cantly different from those of Han and Bai students(all P<0.05).The AL,CR,ACD,CCT,WTW distance,and mean SE were lower in girls than in boys(all P<0.05).Compared with grade 2 and grade 3,students of grade 7 had longer AL,deeper ACD and thinner CCT(all P<0.05),while no significant differences were found in CR and WTW distance(all P>0.05).Correlation analysis showed that the AL/CR ratio was highly correlated with SE(r=-0.78,P<0.05).Conclu-sion Multiethnic primary and secondary school students may face similar environmental risks.Yet,disparities in ocular biometric parameters caused by ethnicity,sex and age should be noted.
7.Discriminante analysis of risk factors Nomograms of myopia in children and adolescents in Yunnan Province
Chinese Journal of School Health 2023;44(9):1387-1391
Objective:
To explore the related factors of myopia among children and adolescents in Yunnan Province, and to predict and evaluate the influencing factors, so as to provide a scientific theoretical basis for the prevention and control of myopia.
Methods:
From March 9 to 14, 2023, 848 students from 6 primary and secondary schools in Dali and Lijiang of Yunnan Province were selected by multi stage stratified random cluster sampling method for visual acuity detection and questionnaire survey on myopia related factors. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to establish a Nomogram prediction model for the selected influencing factors.
Results:
The overall myopia rate of the respondents was 68.3%, the myopia rate of boys (63.4%) was lower than that of girls (72.9%), and the myopia rate of primary school students (46.7%) was lower than that of junior high school students (81.1%), and the difference was statistically significant( χ 2=8.71, 108.07, P <0.05). Daily eye exercises, activities outside the teaching building during recess, having daily sleep time of 7-9 and >9 h, having both parents without myopia were negatively correlated with the occurrence of myopia in children and adolescents in Yunnan Province ( OR=0.64, 0.63, 0.56, 0.28, 0.48, P < 0.05 ). The reading and writing time after school ≥3 h per day and parents unrestricted time to play video games were positively correlated with myopia ( OR=1.94, 1.78, P <0.05). Based on the influencing factors, a Nomogram prediction model was established to quantitatively evaluate the risk of myopia. The results showed that greater risk for myopia was associated with sleep duration, parental history of myopia, and the time spent reading and writing after school every day.
Conclusion
Both genetic factors and environmental factors are related to myopia in children and adolescents. The prediction model of nomogram is beneficial for screening high risk factors of myopia and taking corresponding prevention and treatment measures.
8.Clinical and endoscopic characteristics of adult celiac disease
Tian SHI ; Yan FENG ; Chun WANG ; Huan LIU ; Ting LI ; Weidong LIU ; Hongbo ZHOU ; Abudureyimu AINI ; Xin MEI ; Xinwen GUO ; Maosen JIANG ; Feng GAO
Chinese Journal of Internal Medicine 2023;62(1):35-42
Objective:The study aimed to analyze the clinical and endoscopic characteristics of adult celiac disease (CD) to provide a scientific basis for more effective CD diagnosis and treatment.Methods:In this cross-sectional study, the clinical and endoscopic data of 96 adult CD patients treated in the Department of Gastroenterology of the People′s Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from March 2016 to December 2021 were retrospectively collected and analyzed.Results:A total of 96 CD patients were diagnosed, including 33 men and 63 women. The average age was 47±14 years (range, 18-81 years). The disease occurred mainly in the age group of 31-60 years. The median course of the disease was 2.0 (0.2-40.0) years. There were 41 (42.7%) classical and 55 (57.3%) non-classical CD patients. All patients with classical CD showed chronic diarrhea, often accompanied by abdominal pain (46.3%, 19/41), abdominal distension (17.1%, 7/41), anemia (65.9%, 27/41), and chronic fatigue (48.8%, 20/41). The main manifestations of non-classical CD were chronic abdominal pain (58.2%, 32/55), abdominal distension (32.7%, 18/55), anemia (40.0%, 22/55), and osteopenia/osteoporosis (38.2%, 21/55). Compared with non-classical CD, anemia developed more frequently in classical CD, and the difference was statistically significant ( P = 0.012). The incidence of complications in CD patients was 36.5% (35/96), and the main complications were thyroid disease (19.8%, 19/96), connective tissue disease (6.2%, 6/96), and kidney disease (6.2%, 6/96). There was no significant difference between classical and non-classical CD ( P>0.05). The frequency of endoscopic manifestations in CD patients was 84.4% (81/96). Duodenal bulb endoscopy showed nodular changes (72.9%, 70/96), grooved changes (10.4%, 10/96), and focal villous atrophy (9.4%, 9/96). The main manifestations of descending endoscopy were the decrease, flattening, or disappearance of duodenal folds (43.8%, 42/96), scallop-like changes (38.5%, 37/96), and nodular changes (34.4%, 33/96). Conclusions:Adult CD patients are mostly female. CD occurred mainly in the age group of 31-60 years. The clinical manifestations were mainly those of non-classical CD. Some patients often had other autoimmune diseases. Patients with characteristic endoscopic manifestations should be warned about the possibility of developing CD. Clinicians should strengthen the understanding of CD and reduce the related rates of missed diagnosis.
9.Clinical manifestations and pathological features of 28 cases of adult celiac disease in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China
Ziqiong LI ; Wenjia HUI ; Maosen JIANG ; Hongbo ZHOU ; Xin MEI ; Zhiyuan WANG ; Jiali HU ; Abudurexiti ADILAI ; Halike HALINA ; Miranbieke BUYA ; Feng GAO
Chinese Journal of Digestion 2020;40(9):606-610
Objective:To investigate the clinical manifestations and pathological features of adult celiac disease in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.Methods:From January 2016 to December 2019, the clinical data of 943 patients with gastrointestinal symptoms such as chronic diarrhea, abdominal pain, abdominal distension and visited the People′s Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region were collected. All patients tested for serum anti-tissue transglutaminase antibody inmunoglobulin A (tTG-IgA). And patients with positive serum tTG-IgA underwent gastroscopy and colonoscopy examination. To observe whether duodenal and ileal mucosal villi atrophy and histopathological examination was performed. Body mass index (BMI), hemoglobin, serum calcium, serum albumin level were compared between patients with and without celiac disease. T test and chi-square test were used for statistical analysis. Results:Serum tTG-IgA was positive in 30 patients, and 28 cases were finally diagnosed as celiac disease. The detection rate of celiac disease of Kazakh patients was higher than that of Uygur and Han patients (17.3%, 9/52 vs. 3.2%, 12/375 and 1.4%, 6/427), the detection rate of celiac disease of Uygur was higher than that of Han, and the differences were statistically significant ( χ2=7.65, 5.42 and 5.98, all P<0.05). The main clinical manifestations of 28 patients with celiac disease were weight loss or marasmus (71.4%, 20/28), iron deficiency anemia (67.9%, 19/28), persistent fatigue (57.1%, 16/28) and chronic diarrhea (53.6%, 15/28). The serum tTG-IgA level of patients with celiac disease was higher than that of patients without celiac disease ((131.97±64.58) CU vs. (7.58±1.92) CU), while the levels of BMI, hemoglobin, serum calcium and serum albumin were all lower than those of patients without celiac disease ((15.4±2.9) kg/m 2 vs. (23.8±3.4) kg/m 2, (110±28) g/L vs. (138±12) g/L, (1.70±0.20) mmol/L vs. (2.52±0.15) mmol/L, and (31.5±11.6) g/L vs. (48.2±7.3) g/L, respectively), and the differences were statistically significant ( t=2.473, 2.521, 2.641, 2.734 and 2.512, all P<0.05). Under gastroscopy all patients with celiac disease had atrophy of duodenal mucosal villi, which mainly appeared as nodular mucosal atrophy, grooves and fissure like changes, and villous atrophy was confirmed by histopathology. Conclusions:The detection rates of celiac disease in Kazakh and Uyghur in Xinjiang Uygur Antonomous Region are significantly higher than that of Han nationality. Celiac disease screening has a certain clinical significance.
10.Impact of malnutrition and inflammation status on hospitalization and mortality in maintenance hemodialysis patients
Wenlong WANG ; Maosen LIU ; Huiling WANG ; Yunsheng LI ; Yongjun CHENG ; Yingjie KE ; Huazhi LIN ; Guanghua WU
Chinese Journal of Nephrology 2012;28(5):383-387
Objective To investigate the impact and the associated parameters of malnutrition and inflammation status on hospitalization and mortality of maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients. Method A total of 118 MHD patients were included in the study with 1 year's follow-up.The malnutrition and inflammation parameters were compared between the hospitalized patients and out-patients.Cox's proportional hazard regression model was used to explore the malnutrition and inflammation parameters which could forecast the risk of hospitalization and mortality. Result The hospitalization rate of MHD patients with mild,moderate and severe malnuttition was 32.93%,56.67% and 83.33% respectively,and the mortality was 3.66%,6.67% and 80.00% respectively.The hospitalization rate of MHD patients with or without microinflammation status was 56.45% and 46.43%,and the mortality was 14.29% and 1.61%.Inpatients had a higher malnutrition-inflammation score(MIS,8.36 vs 5.86,P<0.05) and subjective global assessment of nutrition (MQSGA,14.49 vs 12.88,P<0.05),a lower creatinine level (886.83 μmol/L vs 991.76 μmol/L,P<0.05 ) and a lower albumin level (38.57 g/L vs 40.27 g/L,P<0.05) than out-patients.Inpatients also had a higher level of TNF-α (65.41 μg/L vs 59.76 μg/L,P<0.05) than out-patients.Cox proportional hazard model analysis showed that MIS and TNF-α were associated with patient's first hospitalization risk. Conclusions For the MHD patients,the more severe the malnutrition and micro-inflammation status is,the worse the clinical outcome is.The higher levels of MIS and TNF-α result in greater risk of hospitalization.


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