1.Influenza prediction and holiday effects analysis based on Prophet-LSTM model
Wenlin CHENG ; Junjun MAO ; Yizhe WANG ; Jiabing WU
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2026;37(1):8-12
Objective To investigate the impact of holiday effects and prevention/control measures on the development characteristics and incidence trends of influenza in Hefei City using a Prophet-LSTM hybrid model, and to validate the applicability of the Prophet-LSTM model in influenza prediction by comparing the performance of different forecasting models. Methods Influenza incidence data from Hefei City (2016–2024) were collected to construct a Prophet-LSTM feature analysis and prediction model to analyze the impact of holiday effects and intervention measures on influenza incidence trends. Comparative models (ARIMA, GRU, and TimeGPT) were established and evaluated on the same test set. Results The data analysis revealed significantly increased influenza incidence during holidays (e.g., New Year's Day, Spring Festival, and National Day), while prevention and control measures led to declining trends. The Prophet-LSTM model demonstrated high consistency between the predicted and actual values, outperforming the comparative models with superior MAE (0.209), MSE (0.195), and IA (0.914), indicating higher prediction accuracy and trend-fitting capability. Conclusion The Prophet-LSTM model effectively captures spatiotemporal characteristics of influenza incidence, exhibits enhanced predictive performance when incorporating holiday effects and intervention measures, and demonstrates significant advantages and application value in influenza forecasting.
2.Analysis of risk factors for sodium valproate-induced hyperammonemia in neurocritical patients and construction of risk prediction model
Wan XU ; Jin WU ; Jiaojiao MAO ; Jingjing MA ; Yao FEI
China Pharmacy 2026;37(8):1039-1044
OBJECTIVE To investigate the risk factors for sodium valproate (VPA)-induced hyperammonemia in neurocritical patients, and to construct a risk prediction model. METHODS Clinical data were retrospectively collected from 172 neurocritical patients who received VPA treatment in the Department of Critical Care Medicine, the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University from January 2022 to June 2025. Patients were divided into the hyperammonemia group (73 cases) and the normal group (99 cases) based on their blood ammonia levels. Univariate analysis and LASSO regression analysis were used to screen for predictive variables. Independent factors were identified through multivariate Logistic regression analysis, and a nomogram was constructed accordingly. The performance of the model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS Combination of univariate analysis and LASSO regression analysis screened out seven predictive variables: body mass index (BMI)≥24.0 kg/m 2 , concomitant use of benzodiazepines, VPA blood concentration, hemoglobin, serum urea, average daily VPA dose, and albumin. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that concomitant use of benzodiazepines, BMI≥24.0 kg/m 2 , VPA blood concentration, albumin and serum urea level (with odds ratios of 1.615, 1.538, 1.623, 1.942 and 0.637, respectively; 95% confidence intervals of 1.128-2.359, 1.059-2.251, 1.112-2.431, 1.106-3.598 and 0.402-0.980, respectively) were all significantly associated with VPA-induced hyperammonemia in neurocritical patients ( P <0.05). The nomogram prediction model constructed based on these variables was evaluated, showing that the area under the ROC curve was 0.810 for the test set and 0.844 for the validation set. The calibration curves closely approximated t he actual curves, and the application of this model could improve the clinical net benefit. CONCLUSIONS Concomitant use of benzodiazepines, BMI≥24.0 kg/m 2 , high VPA blood concentration and high albumin level are independent risk factors for VPA-induced hyperammonemia in neurocritical patients, while high serum urea level is an independent protective factor. The risk prediction model constructed based on these factors exhibits good discrimination, consistency, and clinical applicability, making it applicable for predicting the risk of VPA-induced hyperammonemia in neurocritical patients.
3.Interproximal tunneling combined with customized connective tissue graft to improve severe papillary defects in the aesthetic zone: a case report and literature review
MAO Yudian ; BAO Han ; AI Luying ; CHEN Weirong ; CHEN Ling ; WU Yun
Journal of Prevention and Treatment for Stomatological Diseases 2025;33(1):50-59
Objective:
To explore the treatment plan for severe papillary defects in the aesthetic zone caused by severe periodontitis, providing a reference for clinical practice.
Methods :
A patient with severe periodontitis leading to severe papillary defects in the upper anterior teeth from 12 to 23 was treated using interdental tunnel technique combined with personalized connective tissue grafting for periodontal plastic surgery, and stable soft tissue augmentation was achieved. Resin restoration was conducted to modify the crown shape of the aesthetic zone teeth, reconstruct white aesthetics, guide the shaping of the gingival papillae, reduce “black triangles,” and enhance the patient’s confidence in smiling.
Results :
The patient’s periodontal condition and the regeneration of soft tissues in the aesthetic zone were good, and the smile aesthetics were restored. After a 3-year follow-up, the gingival morphology, color, and texture were good, and the effect was stable. The literature review indicates that for papillary defects in the aesthetic zone, analysis should be conducted based on the following aspects: whether a defect is present in periodontal hard and soft tissues, crown shape, and the distance from the most apical part of the crown contact area to the top of the alveolar crest. Based on the analysis of aesthetic defects and surgical indications, a personalized treatment plan should be designed.
Conclusion
For patients with obvious papillary defects in the aesthetic zone due to the reduction of periodontal support tissues caused by severe periodontitis, factors such as periodontal hard and soft tissue defects, crown shape, and the distance from the most apical part of the crown contact area to the top of the alveolar crest should be fully considered, and a personalized treatment plan should be formulated after multidisciplinary joint consultation.
4.Construction and practice of the theory of “turbid toxin pathogenesis” and related prevention and treatment strategies for hepatic encephalopathy in traditional Chinese medicine/Zhuang medicine
Zhipeng WU ; Yuqin ZHANG ; Chun YAO ; Minggang WANG ; Na WANG ; Mengru PENG ; Ningfang MO ; Yaqing ZHENG ; Rongzhen ZHANG ; Dewen MAO
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2025;41(2):370-374
Hepatic encephalopathy is a difficult and critical disease with rapid progression and limited treatment methods in the field of liver disease, and it is urgently needed to make breakthroughs in its pathogenesis. Selection of appropriate prevention and treatment strategies is of great importance in delaying disease progression and reducing the incidence and mortality rates. This article reviews the theory of “turbid toxin pathogenesis” and related prevention and treatment strategies for hepatic encephalopathy in traditional Chinese medicine/Zhuang medicine, proposes a new theory of “turbid toxin pathogenesis”, analyzes the scientific connotations of “turbid”, “toxin”, and the theory of “turbid toxin pathogenesis”, and constructs the “four-step” prevention and treatment strategies for hepatic encephalopathy, thereby establishing the new clinical prevention and treatment regimen for hepatic encephalopathy represented by “four prescriptions and two techniques” and clarifying the effect mechanism and biological basis of core prescriptions and techniques in the prevention and treatment of hepatic encephalopathy, in order to provide a reference for the prevention and treatment of hepatic encephalopathy.
5.Wen-Shen-Tong-Du Decoction promoting spinal cord injury repair in mice
Ruihua ZHAO ; Sixian CHEN ; Yang GUO ; Lei SHI ; Chengjie WU ; Mao WU ; Guanglu YANG ; Haoheng ZHANG ; Yong MA
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2025;29(6):1118-1126
BACKGROUND:Previous studies have confirmed that Wen-Shen-Tong-Du Decoction can promote the recovery of spinal cord injury by inhibiting pyroptosis of splenic B cells,promoting the phagocytosis of myelin debris by microvascular endothelial cells,affecting the migration and infiltration of microglia,promoting the recovery of damaged neurons,and decreasing neuronal apoptosis after spinal cord injury,but the mechanism of this is still not clear. OBJECTIVE:To investigate the effect of Wen-Shen-Tong-Du Decoction on the triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 2(TREM2)and PI3K/Akt signaling pathways in mice following spinal cord injury. METHODS:Thirty-six C57BL/6 mice were selected and randomly divided into a sham-operation group,a model group and a Wen-Shen-Tong-Du Decoction group,with 12 mice in each group.In the model and Wen-Shen-Tong-Du Decoction groups,mouse models of T10 spinal cord injury were prepared by the modified Allen's method.On the 1st day after modeling,the Wen-Shen-Tong-Du Decoction group was given Wen-Shen-Tong-Du Decoction by gavage,and the sham-operation group and the model group were given saline by gavage once a day for 28 days.During the drug administration period,mouse motor function was evaluated by Basso Mouse Scale score and inclined plane test.On the 7th and 28th days after modeling,hematoxylin-eosin staining was used to observe the histopathological changes in the spinal cord tissue of the mice;immunofluorescence double staining was used to detect the protein expression of ionized calcium binding adaptor molecule 1(IBA1)and TREM2;and western blot assay was used to detect the expression of TREM2,PI3K,p-PI3K,Akt,p-Akt,Bcl2,Bax and Caspase3 in spinal cord tissue. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:Basso Mouse Scale scores and inclined plane test results indicated that the motor function of the mouse hindlimbs was declined after spinal cord injury,and Wen-Shen-Tong-Du Decoction significantly improved motor function in mice with spinal cord injury.Hematoxylin-eosin staining results revealed that Wen-Shen-Tong-Du Decoction significantly ameliorated the pathological structure of spinal cord tissue compared with the model group,manifesting as reduced degrees of dorsal white matter and neuronal atrophy,decreased cytoplasmic vacuolization,and reduced inflammatory cell infiltration.Immunofluorescence double staining results showed that on the 7th day after modeling,the protein expression of IBA1 and TREM2 in the model group was lower than that in the sham-operation group(P<0.05),and the protein expression of IBA1 and TREM2 in the Wen-Shen-Tong-Du Decoction group was higher than that in the model group(P<0.05);on the 28th day after modeling,the protein expression of TREM2 in the model group was lower than that in the sham-operation group(P<0.05),and the protein expression of TREM2 in the spinal cord tissue of the mice in the Wen-Shen-Tong-Du Decoction group was higher than that in the model group(P<0.05).Western blot results analysis demonstrated that on the 7th day after modeling,compared with the sham-operation group,the model group exhibited a significant reduction in TREM2,PI3K,and Bcl2/Bax(P<0.05),as well as a significant increase in p-Akt,Bax and p-Akt/Aktp-PI3K(P<0.05);compared with the model group,the Wen-Shen-Tong-Du Decoction group showed a significant increase in TREM2,PI3K,p-PI3K,Akt,p-Akt,Bcl2,p-PI3K/PI3K,p-Akt/Ak,and Bcl2/Bax(P<0.05),as well as a significant decrease in Bax and Caspase3 protein expression(P<0.05).On the 28th day after modeling,compared with the sham-operation group,the model group exhibited a significant reduction in TREM2,PI3K,p-PI3K,Akt,p-Akt,Bcl2 and Bcl2/Bax(P<0.05),as well as a significant increase in Bax protein expression(P<0.05);compared with the model group,the Wen-Shen-Tong-Du Decoction group showed a significant increase in TREM2,PI3K,Akt,p-Akt,Bcl2,and Bcl2/Bax(P<0.05),as well as a significant decrease in Bax protein expression(P<0.05).To conclude,Wen-Shen-Tong-Du Decoction may activate the PI3K/Akt signaling pathway by up-regulating the expression of TREM2 protein in microglia,and then inhibit neuronal apoptosis,thus exerting neuroprotective effects and promoting the repair of spinal cord injury.
6.Effects and mechanism of Qiangxin decoction on mitochondrion of rats with chronic heart failure
Meiling MAO ; Jianqi LU ; Zhide ZHU ; Yan PANG ; Liyu XIE ; Jiayong CHEN ; Xinyu WU ; Xiang XIAO ; Junshen LU ; Weiqi SHI
China Pharmacy 2025;36(2):160-165
OBJECTIVE To investigate the effects and potential mechanism of Qiangxin decoction on mitochondrion of rats with chronic heart failure (CHF). METHODS The CHF model was established by ligating the left anterior descending branch of the coronary artery. Modeled rats were divided into model group, Qiangxin decoction low-dose and high-dose groups (12.25, 24.50 g/kg, calculated by crude drug), and chemical medicine group (Sacubitril valsartan sodium tablets, 10.42 mg/kg), with 10 rats in each group; control group was set up without treatment. Each group of rats was orally administered with the corresponding medication or normal saline twice a day for 28 consecutive days. After the last medication, the contents of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and adenosine triphosphate (ATP) in serum and phosphatidic acid (PA) and cardiolipin (CL) in myocardial tissue were all detected; the pathological damage and collagen fibrosis of rat myocardial tissue were observed; the apoptosis of myocardial cells was determined; the ultrastructure of myocardial tissue was observed; the protein expressions of mitofusin 1 (Mfn1), Mfn2, optic atrophy protein 1 (OPA1) and dynamin-related protein 1 (Drp1) were all detected in myocardial tissue. RESULTS Compared with control group,the serum content of NT-proBNP, apoptotic rate of myocardial cells, and relative expressions of S-OPA1 and Drp1 proteins were all increased significantly; serum content of ATP,contents of PA and CL, and relative expressions of Mfn1, Mfn2 and L-OPA1 proteins were all significantly reduced (P<0.05). There were abnormal membrane tissue structure in various layers of myocardial tissue, degeneration and necrosis of myocardial cells, and severe fibrosis; the mitochondria were swollen, with reduced or absent cristae, and uneven matrix density. After intervention with Qiangxin decoction, the levels of the aforementioned quantitative indicators in serum and myocardial tissue of rats (excluding CL content in the Qiangxin decoction low- dose group) were significantly reversed (P<0.05); the pathological damage of myocardial tissue had significantly improved, fibrosis had significantly reduced, mitochondrial morphology tended to be normal, cristae had increased, and matrix density was uniform. CONCLUSIONS Qiangxin decoction can regulate myocardial mitochondrial function and structural integrity of CHF rats, thereby improving myocardial energy metabolism and antagonizing myocardial fibrosis, the mechanism of which may be associated with activating PA/Mfn/CL signaling pathway.
7.Effects and mechanism of Qiangxin decoction on mitochondrion of rats with chronic heart failure
Meiling MAO ; Jianqi LU ; Zhide ZHU ; Yan PANG ; Liyu XIE ; Jiayong CHEN ; Xinyu WU ; Xiang XIAO ; Junshen LU ; Weiqi SHI
China Pharmacy 2025;36(2):160-165
OBJECTIVE To investigate the effects and potential mechanism of Qiangxin decoction on mitochondrion of rats with chronic heart failure (CHF). METHODS The CHF model was established by ligating the left anterior descending branch of the coronary artery. Modeled rats were divided into model group, Qiangxin decoction low-dose and high-dose groups (12.25, 24.50 g/kg, calculated by crude drug), and chemical medicine group (Sacubitril valsartan sodium tablets, 10.42 mg/kg), with 10 rats in each group; control group was set up without treatment. Each group of rats was orally administered with the corresponding medication or normal saline twice a day for 28 consecutive days. After the last medication, the contents of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and adenosine triphosphate (ATP) in serum and phosphatidic acid (PA) and cardiolipin (CL) in myocardial tissue were all detected; the pathological damage and collagen fibrosis of rat myocardial tissue were observed; the apoptosis of myocardial cells was determined; the ultrastructure of myocardial tissue was observed; the protein expressions of mitofusin 1 (Mfn1), Mfn2, optic atrophy protein 1 (OPA1) and dynamin-related protein 1 (Drp1) were all detected in myocardial tissue. RESULTS Compared with control group,the serum content of NT-proBNP, apoptotic rate of myocardial cells, and relative expressions of S-OPA1 and Drp1 proteins were all increased significantly; serum content of ATP,contents of PA and CL, and relative expressions of Mfn1, Mfn2 and L-OPA1 proteins were all significantly reduced (P<0.05). There were abnormal membrane tissue structure in various layers of myocardial tissue, degeneration and necrosis of myocardial cells, and severe fibrosis; the mitochondria were swollen, with reduced or absent cristae, and uneven matrix density. After intervention with Qiangxin decoction, the levels of the aforementioned quantitative indicators in serum and myocardial tissue of rats (excluding CL content in the Qiangxin decoction low- dose group) were significantly reversed (P<0.05); the pathological damage of myocardial tissue had significantly improved, fibrosis had significantly reduced, mitochondrial morphology tended to be normal, cristae had increased, and matrix density was uniform. CONCLUSIONS Qiangxin decoction can regulate myocardial mitochondrial function and structural integrity of CHF rats, thereby improving myocardial energy metabolism and antagonizing myocardial fibrosis, the mechanism of which may be associated with activating PA/Mfn/CL signaling pathway.
8.Investigation and analysis of the current status and challenges in importing rare disease drugs in China
Jingjing WU ; Qinning SU ; Xueyi TAO ; Yufei YANG ; Ningying MAO
China Pharmacy 2025;36(17):2097-2101
OBJECTIVE To analyze the current status and challenges in importing rare disease drugs in China, providing references for optimizing the import process and improving relevant policies. METHODS Questionnaires and interviews were conducted with stakeholders involved in rare disease drug importation, including government departments, multinational pharmaceutical enterprises, healthcare institutions, and patient organizations. This explored the current situation and challenges encountered by each party. Expert opinions were synthesized to propose improvement suggestions. RESULTS A questionnaire survey of representatives from 25 multinational pharmaceutical companies in the rare disease field revealed that these companies had a strong willingness to import rare disease drugs, with 58.33% of them practicing diverse import models. However, significant challenges hindered this process, including unclear regulations (54.17%), complex approval procedures (45.83%), and excessively long approval cycles (41.67%), negatively impacting their motivation. Meanwhile, interviews with 13 experts from government departments, healthcare institutions, pharmaceutical enterprises, and patient organizations identified deficiencies in policy design, approval processes, sampling inspection costs, and communication efficiency with regulators. Additionally, the drug import model in special medical zones also required improvement. CONCLUSIONS The importation of rare disease drugs in China faces challenges such as incomplete policies, inflexible regulatory mechanisms, and insufficient communication channels. It is recommended to enhance the rare disease definition criteria, optimize import incentive policies, and refine regulatory models, so as to further optimize the import process of rare disease drugs and improve relevant policies.
9.Obesity-related genes and genetic susceptibility to gastric cancer
Wenhui WU ; Shiyun DING ; Jingrao LI ; Ji ZHENG ; Jianing MAO ; Tianyi ZHU ; Yiling WU ; Ruoxin ZHANG
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(7):569-580
ObjectiveTo explore the effects of genetic variation of obesity-related biological pathways and gene-obesity interactions on the incidence of gastric cancer, so as to better understand the pathogenesis of gastric cancer and help identify high-risk populations for individualized prevention of gastric cancer. MethodsA case-control study based on the Shanghai Suburban Adult Cohort and Biobank study (SSACB) was conducted on the cases with gastric cancer. A total of 267 cases with gastric cancer and 267 healthy controls matched 1∶1 by age and gender using propensity score were included in the study. After genome-wide genotyping, quality control and imputation, 19 250 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) sites from 115 genes in 4 obesity-related biological pathways were extracted. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the association between these SNP sites and the risk of gastric cancer, and false positive report probability (FPRP) was used for multiple test correction.Data from Biobank Japan (BBJ) and FinnGen public accessible databases were used to validate significant SNP sites. For validated sites, expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis and differentially expressed genes analysis were further performed. Additive and multiplicative interactions were used to evaluate the gene-obesity interactions on the incidence of gastric cancer. Additive interaction evaluation indicators included relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI), attributable proportion due to interaction (AP) and synergy index (SI), while multiplicative interaction evaluation indicators include ORGxE and Pinter. ResultsA total of 41 SNP sites were significantly associated with the onset of gastric cancer (Padj<0.05, FPRP0.1<0.1), among which 7 groups of haplotype blocks were formed. ACACB/ rs2268401 [SSACB: P=0.005, BBJ: P=0.049], HRAS/ rs12785860 (SSACB: P<0.001, FinnGen: P=0.045), and PTPN1/ rs6095985 (SSACB: P<0.001, FinnGen: P=0.023) were significantly associated with the risk of gastric cancer after validation in different populations. Among which, the G allele of HRAS/ rs12785860 was correlated with the downregulation of HRAS mRNA expression (P<0.001), and the expression level of HRAS in gastric cancer tissues was higher than that in adjacent normal tissues (P<0.001). Additionaly, JAK1/rs11208559 showed a positive additive interaction with waist circumstance (WC) on the risk of gastric cancer [RERI=2.29(0.06~4.53), AP=0.57(0.23~0.90), SI=4.03(2.20~5.87)]. ConclusionObesity-related biological pathway SNP sites and their haplotypes are associated with the risk of gastric cancer, suggesting that genetic variations in obesity pathways may affect gastric cancer. The HRAS/ rs12785860 is significantly associated with downregulation of HRAS gene expression, which may serve as a potential genetic marker for gastric cancer. JAK1/rs11208559 interacts with obesity additively on the risk of gastric cancer. Individuals with GC+CC genotypes and pre-central or central obesity have an increased risk of gastric cancer, providing clues and evidences for individualized prevention of gastric cancer.
10.Exploring the clinical implications of novel SRD5A2 variants in 46,XY disorders of sex development.
Yu MAO ; Jian-Mei HUANG ; Yu-Wei CHEN-ZHANG ; He LIN ; Yu-Huan ZHANG ; Ji-Yang JIANG ; Xue-Mei WU ; Ling LIAO ; Yun-Man TANG ; Ji-Yun YANG
Asian Journal of Andrology 2025;27(2):211-218
This study was conducted retrospectively on a cohort of 68 patients with steroid 5 α-reductase 2 (SRD5A2) deficiency and 46,XY disorders of sex development (DSD). Whole-exon sequencing revealed 28 variants of SRD5A2 , and further analysis identified seven novel mutants. The preponderance of variants was observed in exon 1 and exon 4, specifically within the nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate (NADPH)-binding region. Among the entire cohort, 53 patients underwent initial surgery at Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (Chengdu, China). The external genitalia scores (EGS) of these participants varied from 2.0 to 11.0, with a mean of 6.8 (standard deviation [s.d.]: 2.5). Thirty patients consented to hormone testing. Their average testosterone-to-dihydrotestosterone (T/DHT) ratio was 49.3 (s.d.: 23.4). Genetic testing identified four patients with EGS scores between 6 and 9 as having this syndrome; and their T/DHT ratios were below the diagnostic threshold. Furthermore, assessments conducted using the crystal structure of human SRD5A2 have provided insights into the potential pathogenic mechanisms of these novel variants. These mechanisms include interference with NADPH binding (c.356G>C, c.365A>G, c.492C>G, and c.662T>G) and destabilization of the protein structure (c.727C>T). The c.446-1G>T and c.380delG variants were verified to result in large alterations in the transcripts. Seven novel variations were identified, and the variant database for the SRD5A2 gene was expanded. These findings contribute to the progress of diagnostic and therapeutic approaches for individuals with SRD5A2 deficiency.
Humans
;
3-Oxo-5-alpha-Steroid 4-Dehydrogenase/genetics*
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Disorder of Sex Development, 46,XY/blood*
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Male
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Membrane Proteins/genetics*
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Child, Preschool
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Child
;
Retrospective Studies
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Adolescent
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Female
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Mutation
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Testosterone/blood*
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Infant
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Dihydrotestosterone/blood*


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