1.Predictive value of oxygenation index at intensive care unit admission for 30-day mortality in patients with sepsis.
Chunhua BI ; Manchen ZHU ; Chen NI ; Zongfeng ZHANG ; Zhiling QI ; Huanhuan CHENG ; Zongqiang LI ; Cuiping HAO
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2025;37(2):111-117
OBJECTIVE:
To investigate the predictive value of oxygenation index (PaO2/FiO2) at intensive care unit (ICU) admission on 30-day mortality in patients with sepsis.
METHODS:
A retrospective study was conducted. Patients with sepsis who were hospitalized in the ICU of the Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University from April 2015 to October 2023 were enrolled. The demographic information, comorbidities, sites of infection, vital signs and laboratory test indicators at the time of admission to the ICU, disease severity scores within 24 hours of admission to the ICU, treatment process and prognostic indicators were collected. According to the PaO2/FiO2 at ICU admission, patients were divided into Q1 group (PaO2/FiO2 of 4.1-16.4 cmHg, 1 cmHg ≈ 1.33 kPa), Q2 group (PaO2/FiO2 of 16.5-22.6 cmHg), Q3 group (PaO2/FiO2 of 22.7-32.9 cmHg), and Q4 group (PaO2/FiO2 of 33.0-94.8 cmHg). Differences in the indicators across the four groups were compared. Multifactorial Cox regression analysis was used to assess the relationship between PaO2/FiO2 and 30-day mortality of patients with sepsis. The predictive value of PaO2/FiO2, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) on 30-day prognosis of patients with sepsis was analyzed by receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve).
RESULTS:
A total of 1 711 patients with sepsis were enrolled, including 428 patients in Q1 group, 424 patients in Q2 group, 425 patients in Q3 group, and 434 patients in Q4 group. 622 patients died at 30-day, the overall 30-day mortality was 36.35%. There were statistically significant differences in age, body mass index (BMI), history of smoking, history of alcohol consumption, admission heart rate, respiratory rate, APACHE II score, SOFA score, Glasgow coma score (GCS), site of infection, Combined chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), blood lactic acid (Lac), prothrombin time (PT), albumin (Alb), total bilirubin (TBil), pH, proportion of mechanical ventilation, duration of mechanical ventilation, proportion of vasoactive medication used, and maximal concentration, length of ICU stay, hospital stay, incidence of acute kidney injury, in-hospital mortality, 30-day mortality among the four groups. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that after adjusting for confounding factors, for every 1 cmHg increase in PaO2/FiO2 at ICU admission, the 30-day mortality risk decreased by 2% [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.98, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 0.98-0.99, P < 0.001]. The 30-day mortality risk in the Q4 group was reduced compared with the Q1 group by 41% (HR = 0.59, 95%CI was 0.46-0.76, P < 0.001). The fitted curve showed that a curvilinear relationship between PaO2/FiO2 and 30-day mortality after adjustment for confounders. In the inflection point analysis, for every 1 cmHg increase in PaO2/FiO2 at PaO2/FiO2 < 28.55 cmHg, the risk of 30-day death in sepsis patients was reduced by 5% (HR = 0.95, 95%CI was 0.94-0.97, P < 0.001); when PaO2/FiO2 ≥ 28.55 cmHg, there was no statistically significant association between PaO2/FiO2 and the increase in the risk of 30-day death in sepsis (HR = 1.01, 95%CI was 0.99-1.02, P = 0.512). ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve (AUC) for the prediction of 30-day mortality by admission PaO2/FiO2 in ICU sepsis patients was 0.650, which was lower than the predictive ability of the SOFA score (AUC = 0.698) and APACHE II score (AUC = 0.723).
CONCLUSION
In patients with sepsis, PaO2/FiO2 at ICU admission is strongly associated with 30-day mortality risk, alerting healthcare professionals to pay attention to patients with low PaO2/FiO2 for timely interventions.
Humans
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Sepsis/mortality*
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Intensive Care Units
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Retrospective Studies
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Prognosis
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Hospital Mortality
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Oxygen
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Male
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Predictive Value of Tests
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Female
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Middle Aged
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Aged
2.Analysis of DRG policy implementation dilemma and countermeasures of China based on Smith policy implementation process model
Manchen LYU ; Dian ZHOU ; Di TIAN ; Yuan ZHOU ; Yu ZHANG ; Tongbin XUE ; Xuezhen LIU ; Ye WU
Chinese Journal of Hospital Administration 2024;40(9):662-665
DRG payment reform is an important means to control the unreasonable growth of medical expenses, improve the quality of medical services and achieve a win-win situation among three sides of hospitals, medical insurance and patients. This study adopted the Smith policy implementation process model to analyze the difficulties in the DRG policy implementation process from four aspects(idealized policies, policy implementation institutions, target groups, and policy environment), including the deviation between policy connotations and actual needs; the interest objectives of all parties were not completely aligned, the target group lacked a sense of identity, and the social impact and technological support needed to be improved. It was suggested that optimization should be carried out from four dimensions: policy supply coordination and precision, performance evaluation and personnel literacy, target group cognitive level and participation willingness, and policy implementation environment and atmosphere, in order to synergistically promote the effective implementation of DRG policies.
3.Construction and internal validation of a predictive model for early acute kidney injury in patients with sepsis
Shan RONG ; Jiuhang YE ; Manchen ZHU ; Yanchun QIAN ; Fenfen ZHANG ; Guohai LI ; Lina ZHU ; Qinghe HU ; Cuiping HAO
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2023;32(9):1178-1183
Objective:To construct a nomogram model predicting the occurrence of acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with sepsis in the intensive care unit (ICU), and to verify its validity for early prediction.Methods:Sepsis patients admitted to the ICU of the Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University from April 2015 to December 2021 were retrospectively included, and those who met the inclusion criteria were randomly divided into training and validation sets at a ratio of 7:3. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify independent risk factors for AKI in patients with sepsis, and a nomogram was constructed based on the independent risk factors. Calibration curve, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the nomogram model.Results:741 patients with sepsis were included in the study, 335 patients developed AKI within 7 d of ICU admission, with an AKI incidence of 45.1%. Randomization was performed in the training set ( n=519) and internal validation set ( n=222). Multivariate logistic analysis revealed that acute physiology and chronic health status score Ⅱ, sequential organ failure score, serum lactate, calcitoninogen, norepinephrine dose, urea nitrogen, and neutrophil percentage were independent factors influencing the occurrence of AKI, and a nomogram model was constructed by combining these variables. In the training set, the AUC of the nomogram model ROC was 0.875 (95% CI: 0.767-0.835), the calibration curve showed consistency between the predicted and actual probabilities, and the DCA showed a good net clinical benefit. In the internal validation set, the nomogram model had a similar predictive value for AKI (AUC=0.871, 95% CI: 0.734-0.854). Conclusions:A nomogram model constructed based on the critical care score at admission combined with inflammatory markers can be used for the early prediction of AKI in sepsis patients in the ICU. The model is helpful for clinicians early identify AKI in sepsis patients.
4.Primary practice of transcatheter edge-to-edge repair for mitral regurgitation: Early results of MitraClip in multiple centers
Manchen GAO ; Fujian DUAN ; Gejun ZHANG ; Yongquan XIE ; Shouzheng WANG ; Xiaopeng HU ; Haibo HU ; Junyi WAN ; Zhiling LUO ; Jiahua PAN ; Jing ZHANG ; Huijun SONG ; Hui XIONG ; Xiangbin PAN
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2022;29(05):547-552
Objective To investigate the early clinical results of MitraClip system in domestic patients. Methods We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 36 patients who underwent transcatheter edge-to-edge repair procedure using MitraClip system in Beijing Fuwai Hospital, Shenzhen Fuwai Hospital and Fuwai Yunnan Cardiovascular Hospital between January and June 2021. There were 24 males and 12 females, with a median age of 70 (47-86) years. Ten (27.8%) patients had 3+ mitral regurgitation (MR) and 26 (72.2%) patients had 4+ MR preoperatively. Results All procedures were successfully performed. The reduction in MR was 2+ at least immediately after surgery, and 91.7% of patients had MR≤2+ at 3 days postoperatively. There was no statistical difference in left ventricular ejection fraction change postoperatively. Forward velocity and peak gradient of mitral valve were increased after the procedure. Mean gradient of mitral valve were increased at 3 days postoperatively than immediately after surgery (P<0.001). Two patients had acute pericardial effusion intraoperatively, and received pericardial puncture and drainage immediately. Conclusion MitraClip system has been applied well in domestic patients and can significantly improve MR. This sutdy has a good consistency with foreign studies, and the early results are satisfactory.
5.Construction of a predictive model for early acute kidney injury risk in intensive care unit septic shock patients based on machine learning
Suzhen ZHANG ; Sujuan TANG ; Shan RONG ; Manchen ZHU ; Jianguo LIU ; Qinghe HU ; Cuiping HAO
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2022;34(3):255-259
Objective:To analyze the risk factors of acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with septic shock in intensive care unit (ICU), construct a predictive model, and explore the predictive value of the predictive model.Methods:The clinical data of patients with septic shock who were hospitalized in the ICU of the Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical College from April 2015 to June 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. According to whether the patients had AKI within 7 days of admission to the ICU, they were divided into AKI group and non-AKI group. 70% of the cases were randomly selected as the training set for building the model, and the remaining 30% of the cases were used as the validation set. XGBoost model was used to integrate relevant parameters to predict the risk of AKI in patients with septic shock. The predictive ability was assessed through receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), and was correlated with acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ(APACHEⅡ), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), procalcitonin (PCT) and other comparative verification models to verify the predictive value.Results:A total of 303 patients with septic shock were enrolled, including 153 patients with AKI and 150 patients without AKI. The incidence of AKI was 50.50%. Compared with the non-AKI group, the AKI group had higher APACHEⅡscore, SOFA score and blood lactate (Lac), higher dose of norepinephrine (NE), higher proportion of mechanical ventilation, and tachycardiac. In the XGBoost prediction model of AKI risk in septic shock patients, the top 10 features were serum creatinine (SCr) level at ICU admission, NE use, drinking history, albumin, serum sodium, C-reactive protein (CRP), Lac, body mass index (BMI), platelet count (PLT), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) levels. Area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the XGBoost model for predicting the risk of AKI in patients with septic shock was 0.816, with a sensitivity of 73.3%, a specificity of 71.7%, and an accuracy of 72.5%. Compared with the APACHEⅡscore, SOFA score and PCT, the performance of the model improved significantly. The calibration curve of the model showed that the goodness of fit of the XGBoost model was higher than the other scores (the calibration curve had the lowest score, with a score of 0.205).Conclusion:Compared with the commonly used clinical scores, the XGBoost model can more accurately predict the risk of AKI in patients with septic shock, which helps to make appropriate diagnosis, treatment and follow-up strategies while predicting the prognosis of patients.
6.Interpretation of the section of congenital heart diseases in Annual Report on Cardiovascular Health and Diseases in China (2019)
Manchen GAO ; Fengwen ZHANG ; Xiangbin PAN
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2021;28(04):384-387
Congenital heart disease (CHD) is a birth defect with the highest incidence in China. In September 2020, Annual Report on Cardiovascular Health and Diseases in China (2019) was published by National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases. The present situation of prevention and treatment of CHD was briefly summarized in this report. In this paper, we presented the main opinions of Annual Report on Cardiovascular Health and Diseases in China (2019), supplied with relevant data, such as epidemiology, surgical treatment and interventional treatment of CHD, to further expand and explain this report.
7.Three-Dimensional Finite Element Analysis on Residual Lateral Displacement of Distal Radius AO C3.1 Fracture Corrected by Dynamic Airbag Pad
Chengjian WEI ; Baochen TAO ; Manchen ZHANG ; Junqing XIA ; We MEI
Journal of Medical Biomechanics 2018;33(1):E013-E017
Objective To quantitatively study the pressure of residual lateral displacement in distal radius AO C3.1 fracture after manual reduction corrected by dynamic airbag pad using finite element analysis and to verify its effectiveness for correcting the residual displacement of fractures. Methods Imageware 13.0, Mimics 15.0 and ANSYS Workbench were used to simulate 1 cm residual lateral displacement after manual reduction of distal radius fracture corrected by dynamic airbag pad. Then the correlation between the distance of residual lateral displacement and the adjustment of dynamic airbag pad pressure were quantitatively analyzed. Results In the case of constant load restrained by airbag ribbon, during the process of pressure adjustment by splint pad, the stress was mainly distributed in the fracture end where the airbag pad was located. About 2.4 kPa pressure was needed to correct 1 mm displacement on radial side, while about 1.3 kPa pressure was needed to correct 1 mm displacement on dorsal side. The dynamic airbag pad was depressurized after the restoration of residual shift. At this time, displacement could be effectively prevented due to the constant load of airbag ribbon and the frictional load at the fracture end. Conclusions In the case of constant load constrained by airbag ribbon, intelligent airbag splint can effectively correct the residual lateral displacement after the manual reduction of the distal radius AO C3.1 fracture and prevent it from being displaced by adjusting pressure of the dynamic airbag pad.
8.Construction of C-shaped cartilage with electrospun gelatin/polycaprolactone nanofibrous membranes and 3D printed supporter
Hengyi ZHANG ; Bei FENG ; Yang GE ; Manchen GAO ; Jie BAI ; Wei FU ; Zhiwei XU
Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University(Medical Science) 2017;37(7):896-900
Objective·To construct C-shaped cartilage rings by rabbit auricular cartilage-derived chondrocytes combing with both electrospun gelatin/ polycaprolactone(GT/PCL) nanofibrous membranes and 3D printed supporters for repairing tracheal cartilage defects.Methods·Primary chondrocytes were isolated from rabbit auricular cartilage with methods of trypsin enzyme digestion and collagenase enzyme digestion.After proliferation in vitro,the chondrocytes of passage 2 were harvested for further experiments.Ultrafine composite fibers of GT/PCL were fabricated via electrospinning.The electrospun GT/PCL membranes were tailored into rectangle shape,the length of which is 12 cm and the width is 2.5 cm.Chondrocytes were seeded on membrane at a density of 1 × 108 cells/mL.Then the membrane were rolled onto a 3D printed supporter of poly(DL-lactide-ε-caprolactone) (PLCL) material to construct a C-shaped cartilage-like complex.After 8 weeks of subcutaneous incubation in vivo,gross inspection and paraffin section staining were applied for evaluation.Results·After 8 weeks of culture in vivo,mature cartilage-like tissue were formed with open-cylindrical bellow appearance and pecific mechanical property.C-shaped rings arranged at regular intervals on the inner surface of tissue,which were similar to the normal structure of tracheal cartilages.Histological and immunohistological staining showed a large number of typical lacunar structures and extracellular matrix secretions.Conclusion·It is feasible to construct tissue engineered C-shaped cartilage tissue by combing chondrocytes with GT/PCL membrane and 3D printed PLCL supporter for tracheal cartilage repair.

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