1.Predictive value of oxygenation index at intensive care unit admission for 30-day mortality in patients with sepsis.
Chunhua BI ; Manchen ZHU ; Chen NI ; Zongfeng ZHANG ; Zhiling QI ; Huanhuan CHENG ; Zongqiang LI ; Cuiping HAO
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2025;37(2):111-117
OBJECTIVE:
To investigate the predictive value of oxygenation index (PaO2/FiO2) at intensive care unit (ICU) admission on 30-day mortality in patients with sepsis.
METHODS:
A retrospective study was conducted. Patients with sepsis who were hospitalized in the ICU of the Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University from April 2015 to October 2023 were enrolled. The demographic information, comorbidities, sites of infection, vital signs and laboratory test indicators at the time of admission to the ICU, disease severity scores within 24 hours of admission to the ICU, treatment process and prognostic indicators were collected. According to the PaO2/FiO2 at ICU admission, patients were divided into Q1 group (PaO2/FiO2 of 4.1-16.4 cmHg, 1 cmHg ≈ 1.33 kPa), Q2 group (PaO2/FiO2 of 16.5-22.6 cmHg), Q3 group (PaO2/FiO2 of 22.7-32.9 cmHg), and Q4 group (PaO2/FiO2 of 33.0-94.8 cmHg). Differences in the indicators across the four groups were compared. Multifactorial Cox regression analysis was used to assess the relationship between PaO2/FiO2 and 30-day mortality of patients with sepsis. The predictive value of PaO2/FiO2, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) on 30-day prognosis of patients with sepsis was analyzed by receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve).
RESULTS:
A total of 1 711 patients with sepsis were enrolled, including 428 patients in Q1 group, 424 patients in Q2 group, 425 patients in Q3 group, and 434 patients in Q4 group. 622 patients died at 30-day, the overall 30-day mortality was 36.35%. There were statistically significant differences in age, body mass index (BMI), history of smoking, history of alcohol consumption, admission heart rate, respiratory rate, APACHE II score, SOFA score, Glasgow coma score (GCS), site of infection, Combined chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), blood lactic acid (Lac), prothrombin time (PT), albumin (Alb), total bilirubin (TBil), pH, proportion of mechanical ventilation, duration of mechanical ventilation, proportion of vasoactive medication used, and maximal concentration, length of ICU stay, hospital stay, incidence of acute kidney injury, in-hospital mortality, 30-day mortality among the four groups. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that after adjusting for confounding factors, for every 1 cmHg increase in PaO2/FiO2 at ICU admission, the 30-day mortality risk decreased by 2% [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.98, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 0.98-0.99, P < 0.001]. The 30-day mortality risk in the Q4 group was reduced compared with the Q1 group by 41% (HR = 0.59, 95%CI was 0.46-0.76, P < 0.001). The fitted curve showed that a curvilinear relationship between PaO2/FiO2 and 30-day mortality after adjustment for confounders. In the inflection point analysis, for every 1 cmHg increase in PaO2/FiO2 at PaO2/FiO2 < 28.55 cmHg, the risk of 30-day death in sepsis patients was reduced by 5% (HR = 0.95, 95%CI was 0.94-0.97, P < 0.001); when PaO2/FiO2 ≥ 28.55 cmHg, there was no statistically significant association between PaO2/FiO2 and the increase in the risk of 30-day death in sepsis (HR = 1.01, 95%CI was 0.99-1.02, P = 0.512). ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve (AUC) for the prediction of 30-day mortality by admission PaO2/FiO2 in ICU sepsis patients was 0.650, which was lower than the predictive ability of the SOFA score (AUC = 0.698) and APACHE II score (AUC = 0.723).
CONCLUSION
In patients with sepsis, PaO2/FiO2 at ICU admission is strongly associated with 30-day mortality risk, alerting healthcare professionals to pay attention to patients with low PaO2/FiO2 for timely interventions.
Humans
;
Sepsis/mortality*
;
Intensive Care Units
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Prognosis
;
Hospital Mortality
;
Oxygen
;
Male
;
Predictive Value of Tests
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged
2.Association analysis of factors influencing high hospitalization costs for cancer patients based on FP-Growth and Apriori algorithm
Jingjing YE ; Dian ZHOU ; Di TIAN ; Yuan ZHOU ; Yu ZHANG ; Manchen LYU ; Tongbin XUE ; Huan BAI ; Cheng GUO ; Ye WU
Chinese Journal of Hospital Administration 2025;41(3):216-222
Objective:Exploring the association rules of factors influencing high hospitalization costs for cancer patients, providing references for hospitals to optimize medical cost management measures.Methods:In the inpatient case information system of a tertiary general hospital, the medical record homepages of inpatients in the DRG groups of the oncology department in 2022 were obtained. The upper four scores of hospitalization costs was used as the threshold for patient grouping. Patients with hospitalization costs≥this threshold were the high-cost group, while other patients were control group; 12 factors, including age, gender, and admission condition, etc, were considered as potential influencing factors of high hospitalization costs. FP-Growth and Apriori algorithms were used to excavate the potential association rules between the influencing factors of high hospitalization costs. Logistic regression was used to analyze the independent influencing factors of high hospitalization costs.Results:A total of 5 512 hospitalized patients were included, including 1 378 patients in the high-cost group. Thirteen validated strong association rules for factors influencing high hospitalization costs were obtained, of which the rule antecedents included age (≥70 years), number of days in hospital (≥7 days), other diagnoses (≥5), surgery, planned readmission, use of antibiotics, admission (general/critical), living admission score (61~99), level of care (level 1/level 2), non-day ward, criticality during hospitalisation. Logistic regression results showed that all nine influencing factors except gender, use of antibiotics, and readmission plans were independent influences on high hospitalization costs ( P<0.05). Conclusions:The joint application of FP-Growth and Apriori algorithm could effectively explore the association rules of high hospitalization costs for oncology patients. The early warning information mainly included the number of hospitalization days, the number of other diagnoses, surgeries, and so on. It was suggested that medical institutions can reasonably control the high hospitalization costs through clinical pathway management, diagnosis and treatment process reengineering, admission risk assessment, and multidisciplinary collaborative diagnosis and treatment strategies.
3.Analysis of factors influencing DRG payment system reform based on interpretive structural model
Tongbin XUE ; Ye WU ; Dian ZHOU ; Di TIAN ; Yuan ZHOU ; Yu ZHANG ; Manchen LYU ; Yuchen ZHANG ; Xiaohan JING ; Rui ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Hospital Administration 2025;41(3):210-215
Objective:To analyze the influencing factors of China′s DRG payment system reform(DRG reform) and its hierarchical relationship, for references for the in-depth promotion of China′s medical insurance payment reform.Methods:Relevant literature on DRG reform in China from databases such as CNKI, Wanfang Database, Pubmed, etc, were obtained. Content analysis method was used to extract the influencing factors of DRG reform. The correlation between each influencing factor was determined through expert discussion. An interpretive structural model(ISM) was constructed to analyze the hierarchical relationship of factors influencing DRG reform.Results:After analysis, the influencing factors(12) of DRG reform in China were included such as medical level, hospital management, and medical staff′s cognition and behavior. Among them, the local situation was the deep-level factor affecting DRG reform, 9 factors such as data quality assurance and policy design/implementation were the middle-level factors, and patients′ interests/needs and disease grouping were the surface-level factors.Conclusions:There were many influencing factors on the reform of China′s DRG payment system. It was suggested that relevant management departments in various regions should focus on the actual situation of the locality, take data quality and policy design and implementation as the key points of reform, formulate a scientific and reasonable DRG grouping scheme, safeguard the interests of patients, so as to promote the deepening of DRG reform.
4.Research on the relations of intraventricular pressure gradients determined by echocardiography and left ventricular cardiotoxicity in the early stage of anthracycline chemotherapy
Mengxiao HAN ; Jian ZHANG ; Manchen YANG ; Qunling ZHANG ; Xianhong SHU ; Zheng LI ; Leilei CHENG
Chinese Journal of Cardiology 2025;53(8):891-897
Objective:To preliminarily explore the relationship between intraventricular pressure gradients (IVPG) measured by ultrasound hemodynamic analysis and left ventricular cardiotoxicity after anthracycline chemotherapy.Methods:This was a retrospective cohort study. Patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) who completed 6 cycles of R-CHOP chemotherapy at Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center from 2014 to 2015 were included. Echocardiography was performed at baseline (T0), after 2 cycles of chemotherapy (T1), after 4 cycles of chemotherapy (T2), and after all chemotherapy cycles (T3). Left ventricular global longitudinal strain (LVGLS), left ventricular global circumferential strain (LVGCS), and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) were analyzed using speckle-tracking imaging technology, and IVPG was measured using hemodynamic analysis technology, including IVPG of long-axis (IVPG-LA) and IVPG of short-axis. The change rate of each index from T0 to T2 was marked as Δ. Left ventricular cardiotoxicity was defined as a decrease in LVEF of ≥10% from the baseline level or LVEF ≤50%. Univariate logistic regression analysis was used to explore the related factors of left ventricular myocardial toxicity, and the receiver operating characteristic curve was drawn to analyze their evaluation efficiency for left ventricular myocardial toxicity.Results:A total of 55 patients were included, including 28 males (51%), aged (46.5±11.7) years. Twelve patients (22%) developed left ventricular cardiotoxicity. Compared with T0, IVPG-LA decreased at T1 ((10.73±2.51)% vs. (11.52±3.62)%, P=0.037); while LVGLS, LVGCS, and LVEF only decreased at T3 (all P<0.05). Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that ΔIVPG-LA and ΔLVGLS were related factors for left ventricular myocardial toxicity in patients with DLBCL receiving chemotherapy (all P<0.05). The receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the area under the curve of ΔLVGLS was 0.702, with an optimal cut-off value of 13.15% (sensitivity 66.7%, specificity 62.8%); the area under the curve of ΔIVPG-LA was 0.812, with an optimal cut-off value of 20.74% (sensitivity 75.0%, specificity 90.7%). Conclusions:Hemodynamic analysis technology shows promise clinical application value in evaluating subclinical changes in left ventricular function in tumor patients after anthracycline chemotherapy; the change rate of IVPG-LA could be used as an early indicator of left ventricular toxicity after anthracycline chemotherapy.
5.Association analysis of factors influencing high hospitalization costs for cancer patients based on FP-Growth and Apriori algorithm
Jingjing YE ; Dian ZHOU ; Di TIAN ; Yuan ZHOU ; Yu ZHANG ; Manchen LYU ; Tongbin XUE ; Huan BAI ; Cheng GUO ; Ye WU
Chinese Journal of Hospital Administration 2025;41(3):216-222
Objective:Exploring the association rules of factors influencing high hospitalization costs for cancer patients, providing references for hospitals to optimize medical cost management measures.Methods:In the inpatient case information system of a tertiary general hospital, the medical record homepages of inpatients in the DRG groups of the oncology department in 2022 were obtained. The upper four scores of hospitalization costs was used as the threshold for patient grouping. Patients with hospitalization costs≥this threshold were the high-cost group, while other patients were control group; 12 factors, including age, gender, and admission condition, etc, were considered as potential influencing factors of high hospitalization costs. FP-Growth and Apriori algorithms were used to excavate the potential association rules between the influencing factors of high hospitalization costs. Logistic regression was used to analyze the independent influencing factors of high hospitalization costs.Results:A total of 5 512 hospitalized patients were included, including 1 378 patients in the high-cost group. Thirteen validated strong association rules for factors influencing high hospitalization costs were obtained, of which the rule antecedents included age (≥70 years), number of days in hospital (≥7 days), other diagnoses (≥5), surgery, planned readmission, use of antibiotics, admission (general/critical), living admission score (61~99), level of care (level 1/level 2), non-day ward, criticality during hospitalisation. Logistic regression results showed that all nine influencing factors except gender, use of antibiotics, and readmission plans were independent influences on high hospitalization costs ( P<0.05). Conclusions:The joint application of FP-Growth and Apriori algorithm could effectively explore the association rules of high hospitalization costs for oncology patients. The early warning information mainly included the number of hospitalization days, the number of other diagnoses, surgeries, and so on. It was suggested that medical institutions can reasonably control the high hospitalization costs through clinical pathway management, diagnosis and treatment process reengineering, admission risk assessment, and multidisciplinary collaborative diagnosis and treatment strategies.
6.Analysis of factors influencing DRG payment system reform based on interpretive structural model
Tongbin XUE ; Ye WU ; Dian ZHOU ; Di TIAN ; Yuan ZHOU ; Yu ZHANG ; Manchen LYU ; Yuchen ZHANG ; Xiaohan JING ; Rui ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Hospital Administration 2025;41(3):210-215
Objective:To analyze the influencing factors of China′s DRG payment system reform(DRG reform) and its hierarchical relationship, for references for the in-depth promotion of China′s medical insurance payment reform.Methods:Relevant literature on DRG reform in China from databases such as CNKI, Wanfang Database, Pubmed, etc, were obtained. Content analysis method was used to extract the influencing factors of DRG reform. The correlation between each influencing factor was determined through expert discussion. An interpretive structural model(ISM) was constructed to analyze the hierarchical relationship of factors influencing DRG reform.Results:After analysis, the influencing factors(12) of DRG reform in China were included such as medical level, hospital management, and medical staff′s cognition and behavior. Among them, the local situation was the deep-level factor affecting DRG reform, 9 factors such as data quality assurance and policy design/implementation were the middle-level factors, and patients′ interests/needs and disease grouping were the surface-level factors.Conclusions:There were many influencing factors on the reform of China′s DRG payment system. It was suggested that relevant management departments in various regions should focus on the actual situation of the locality, take data quality and policy design and implementation as the key points of reform, formulate a scientific and reasonable DRG grouping scheme, safeguard the interests of patients, so as to promote the deepening of DRG reform.
7.Research on the relations of intraventricular pressure gradients determined by echocardiography and left ventricular cardiotoxicity in the early stage of anthracycline chemotherapy
Mengxiao HAN ; Jian ZHANG ; Manchen YANG ; Qunling ZHANG ; Xianhong SHU ; Zheng LI ; Leilei CHENG
Chinese Journal of Cardiology 2025;53(8):891-897
Objective:To preliminarily explore the relationship between intraventricular pressure gradients (IVPG) measured by ultrasound hemodynamic analysis and left ventricular cardiotoxicity after anthracycline chemotherapy.Methods:This was a retrospective cohort study. Patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) who completed 6 cycles of R-CHOP chemotherapy at Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center from 2014 to 2015 were included. Echocardiography was performed at baseline (T0), after 2 cycles of chemotherapy (T1), after 4 cycles of chemotherapy (T2), and after all chemotherapy cycles (T3). Left ventricular global longitudinal strain (LVGLS), left ventricular global circumferential strain (LVGCS), and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) were analyzed using speckle-tracking imaging technology, and IVPG was measured using hemodynamic analysis technology, including IVPG of long-axis (IVPG-LA) and IVPG of short-axis. The change rate of each index from T0 to T2 was marked as Δ. Left ventricular cardiotoxicity was defined as a decrease in LVEF of ≥10% from the baseline level or LVEF ≤50%. Univariate logistic regression analysis was used to explore the related factors of left ventricular myocardial toxicity, and the receiver operating characteristic curve was drawn to analyze their evaluation efficiency for left ventricular myocardial toxicity.Results:A total of 55 patients were included, including 28 males (51%), aged (46.5±11.7) years. Twelve patients (22%) developed left ventricular cardiotoxicity. Compared with T0, IVPG-LA decreased at T1 ((10.73±2.51)% vs. (11.52±3.62)%, P=0.037); while LVGLS, LVGCS, and LVEF only decreased at T3 (all P<0.05). Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that ΔIVPG-LA and ΔLVGLS were related factors for left ventricular myocardial toxicity in patients with DLBCL receiving chemotherapy (all P<0.05). The receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the area under the curve of ΔLVGLS was 0.702, with an optimal cut-off value of 13.15% (sensitivity 66.7%, specificity 62.8%); the area under the curve of ΔIVPG-LA was 0.812, with an optimal cut-off value of 20.74% (sensitivity 75.0%, specificity 90.7%). Conclusions:Hemodynamic analysis technology shows promise clinical application value in evaluating subclinical changes in left ventricular function in tumor patients after anthracycline chemotherapy; the change rate of IVPG-LA could be used as an early indicator of left ventricular toxicity after anthracycline chemotherapy.
8.Analysis of DRG policy implementation dilemma and countermeasures of China based on Smith policy implementation process model
Manchen LYU ; Dian ZHOU ; Di TIAN ; Yuan ZHOU ; Yu ZHANG ; Tongbin XUE ; Xuezhen LIU ; Ye WU
Chinese Journal of Hospital Administration 2024;40(9):662-665
DRG payment reform is an important means to control the unreasonable growth of medical expenses, improve the quality of medical services and achieve a win-win situation among three sides of hospitals, medical insurance and patients. This study adopted the Smith policy implementation process model to analyze the difficulties in the DRG policy implementation process from four aspects(idealized policies, policy implementation institutions, target groups, and policy environment), including the deviation between policy connotations and actual needs; the interest objectives of all parties were not completely aligned, the target group lacked a sense of identity, and the social impact and technological support needed to be improved. It was suggested that optimization should be carried out from four dimensions: policy supply coordination and precision, performance evaluation and personnel literacy, target group cognitive level and participation willingness, and policy implementation environment and atmosphere, in order to synergistically promote the effective implementation of DRG policies.
9.Construction and internal validation of a predictive model for early acute kidney injury in patients with sepsis
Shan RONG ; Jiuhang YE ; Manchen ZHU ; Yanchun QIAN ; Fenfen ZHANG ; Guohai LI ; Lina ZHU ; Qinghe HU ; Cuiping HAO
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2023;32(9):1178-1183
Objective:To construct a nomogram model predicting the occurrence of acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with sepsis in the intensive care unit (ICU), and to verify its validity for early prediction.Methods:Sepsis patients admitted to the ICU of the Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University from April 2015 to December 2021 were retrospectively included, and those who met the inclusion criteria were randomly divided into training and validation sets at a ratio of 7:3. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify independent risk factors for AKI in patients with sepsis, and a nomogram was constructed based on the independent risk factors. Calibration curve, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the nomogram model.Results:741 patients with sepsis were included in the study, 335 patients developed AKI within 7 d of ICU admission, with an AKI incidence of 45.1%. Randomization was performed in the training set ( n=519) and internal validation set ( n=222). Multivariate logistic analysis revealed that acute physiology and chronic health status score Ⅱ, sequential organ failure score, serum lactate, calcitoninogen, norepinephrine dose, urea nitrogen, and neutrophil percentage were independent factors influencing the occurrence of AKI, and a nomogram model was constructed by combining these variables. In the training set, the AUC of the nomogram model ROC was 0.875 (95% CI: 0.767-0.835), the calibration curve showed consistency between the predicted and actual probabilities, and the DCA showed a good net clinical benefit. In the internal validation set, the nomogram model had a similar predictive value for AKI (AUC=0.871, 95% CI: 0.734-0.854). Conclusions:A nomogram model constructed based on the critical care score at admission combined with inflammatory markers can be used for the early prediction of AKI in sepsis patients in the ICU. The model is helpful for clinicians early identify AKI in sepsis patients.
10.Construction of a predictive model for early acute kidney injury risk in intensive care unit septic shock patients based on machine learning
Suzhen ZHANG ; Sujuan TANG ; Shan RONG ; Manchen ZHU ; Jianguo LIU ; Qinghe HU ; Cuiping HAO
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2022;34(3):255-259
Objective:To analyze the risk factors of acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with septic shock in intensive care unit (ICU), construct a predictive model, and explore the predictive value of the predictive model.Methods:The clinical data of patients with septic shock who were hospitalized in the ICU of the Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical College from April 2015 to June 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. According to whether the patients had AKI within 7 days of admission to the ICU, they were divided into AKI group and non-AKI group. 70% of the cases were randomly selected as the training set for building the model, and the remaining 30% of the cases were used as the validation set. XGBoost model was used to integrate relevant parameters to predict the risk of AKI in patients with septic shock. The predictive ability was assessed through receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), and was correlated with acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ(APACHEⅡ), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), procalcitonin (PCT) and other comparative verification models to verify the predictive value.Results:A total of 303 patients with septic shock were enrolled, including 153 patients with AKI and 150 patients without AKI. The incidence of AKI was 50.50%. Compared with the non-AKI group, the AKI group had higher APACHEⅡscore, SOFA score and blood lactate (Lac), higher dose of norepinephrine (NE), higher proportion of mechanical ventilation, and tachycardiac. In the XGBoost prediction model of AKI risk in septic shock patients, the top 10 features were serum creatinine (SCr) level at ICU admission, NE use, drinking history, albumin, serum sodium, C-reactive protein (CRP), Lac, body mass index (BMI), platelet count (PLT), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) levels. Area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the XGBoost model for predicting the risk of AKI in patients with septic shock was 0.816, with a sensitivity of 73.3%, a specificity of 71.7%, and an accuracy of 72.5%. Compared with the APACHEⅡscore, SOFA score and PCT, the performance of the model improved significantly. The calibration curve of the model showed that the goodness of fit of the XGBoost model was higher than the other scores (the calibration curve had the lowest score, with a score of 0.205).Conclusion:Compared with the commonly used clinical scores, the XGBoost model can more accurately predict the risk of AKI in patients with septic shock, which helps to make appropriate diagnosis, treatment and follow-up strategies while predicting the prognosis of patients.

Result Analysis
Print
Save
E-mail