OBJECTIVE: Asthma imposes a significant global health burden. This study examines changes in the asthma-related disease burden from 1990 to 2021 and projects future burdens for 2050 under different scenarios. METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study, we analyzed asthma incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021. We projected the disease burden for 2050 based on current trends and hypothetical scenarios in which all risk factors are controlled. Temporal trends in age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY rates were explored using Annual Percent Change. RESULTS: In 2021, the age-standardized rates for asthma incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs in China were 364.17 per 100,000 (95% uncertainty interval [ UI]: 283.22-494.10), 1,956.49 per 100,000 (95% UI: 1,566.68-2,491.87), 1.47 per 100,000 (95% UI: 1.15-1.79), and 103.76 per 100,000 (95% UI: 72.50-145.46), respectively. A higher disease burden was observed among Chinese men and individuals aged 70 years or older. Compared to the current trend, a combined scenario involving improvements in environmental factors, behavioral and metabolic health, child nutrition, and vaccination resulted in a greater reduction in the disease burden caused by asthma. CONCLUSION Addressing modifiable risk factors is essential for further reducing the asthma-related disease burden.
Humans ; Asthma/mortality* ; China/epidemiology* ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Child ; Adolescent ; Global Burden of Disease/trends* ; Child, Preschool ; Young Adult ; Infant ; Cost of Illness ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Prevalence ; Incidence ; Infant, Newborn ; Aged, 80 and over ; Risk Factors

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to analyze the burden of lower respiratory infections in Chinese elderly people aged 70 and above. METHODS: This study utilized Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 1990-2050 prediction data to analyze changes in mortality rates and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates for lower respiratory infections in the elderly population (aged 70 and above) in China from 1990 to 2050. It also discusses future trends in the burden of lower respiratory infections (LRI) in China under different scenarios. RESULTS: According to GBD predictions, the burden of lower respiratory infections in the elderly aged 70 years and above in China is lower than the global average. The burden has been decreasing from 1990 to 2020, but is projected to increase from 2020 to 2050. Scenario-based predictions suggest that, under scenarios involving improvements in nutrition and vaccination, the burden of lower respiratory infections in the elderly in China is expected to be the lowest in 2050. CONCLUSION This study indicates that the burden of lower respiratory infections in elderly people aged 70 years and above in China remains a significant public health issue and may worsen. The government should consider strengthening the preventive measures and management strategies for respiratory infections in the elderly population.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Aged ; Respiratory Tract Infections/mortality* ; Aged, 80 and over ; Male ; Female ; Forecasting ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Global Burden of Disease ; Cost of Illness

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the prevalence and burden of headache disorders in China and its provinces from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021, the number of prevalent cases, prevalence rate, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized DALY rates were analyzed by sex, age group, and province for headache disorders and their subtypes (migraine and tension-type headache [TTH]) between 1990 and 2021. Percentage changes during this period were also estimated. RESULTS: In 2021, approximately 426 million individuals in China were affected by headache disorders, with an age-standardized prevalence rate of 27,582.61/100,000. The age-standardized DALY rate for all headache disorders was 487.15/100,000. Between 1990 and 2021, the number of prevalent cases increased by 37.78%, while the prevalence of all headache disorders, migraine, and TTH increased by 6.92%, 7.57%, and 7.86%, respectively. The highest prevalence was observed in the 30-34 age group (39,520.60/100,000). Migraine accounted for a larger proportion of DALYs attributable to headache disorders, whereas TTH has a greater impact on its prevalence. In 2021, the highest age-standardized DALY rates for headache disorders were observed in Heilongjiang (617.85/100,000) and Shanghai (542.86/100,000). CONCLUSION The prevalence of headache disorders is increasing in China. Effective health education, improve diagnosis and treatment are essential, particularly for middle-aged working populations and women of childbearing age.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Female ; Male ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Prevalence ; Young Adult ; Adolescent ; Aged ; Child ; Headache Disorders/epidemiology* ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Child, Preschool ; Cost of Illness ; Infant ; Aged, 80 and over

Objective: To understand the core knowledge level and influencing factors of chronic disease prevention and control in Adults in China, and to provide a scientific basis for formulating chronic disease prevention and control measures. Methods: In this study, cross-sectional survey and quota sampling were used to recruit 173 819 permanent residents aged 18 and above from 302 counties of adult chronic diseases and nutrition surveillance in China to conduct an online questionnaire survey, including basic information and core knowledge of chronic diseases. The scores of the core knowledge of chronic disease prevention and control were described by median and interquartile range, the Wilcoxon rank sum test or the Kruskal Wallis test was used for the inter-group comparison, and the correlation factors of the total score were analyzed by the multilinear regression model. Results: A total of 172 808 participants were surveyed in 302 counties and districts, of which 42.60%(73 623) were male and 57.40%(99 185) were female; The proportion of respondents aged 18-44, 45-59, and 60 years old and above was 54.74% (94 594), 30.91% (53 423) and 14.35% (24 791), respectively. The total score of the core knowledge of chronic prevention and control in the total population was 66(13), and the scores of different characteristic groups were different, and the differences were statistically significant: the eastern region had the highest score at 67(11) (H=840.66, P<0.01), the urban 66(12) was higher than the rural 65(14) (Z=-31.35, P<0.01), and the male 66(14) was lower than female 66(12) (Z=-11.66, P<0.01), 18-24 years old 64(13) was lower than other age groups(H=115.80, P<0.01), and undergraduate degree and above had the highest score compared to other academic qualifications, with 68(9) points(H=2 547.25, P<0.01). Multivariate analysis showed that eastern (t=27.42, P<0.01), central (t=17.33, P<0.01), urban (t=5.69, P<0.01), female (t=17.81, P<0.01), high age (t=46.04, P<0.01) and high education (t=57.77, P<0.01) had higher scores of core knowledge of chronic disease prevention and control than other groups, the scores of core knowledge of chronic disease prevention and control of professional and technical personnel (t=8.63, P<0.01), state enterprises and institutions (t=38.67, P<0.01), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and water conservancy production (t=5.30, P<0.01), production, transportation and commercial personnel (t=24.87, P<0.01), and other workers (t=8.89, P<0.01) were higher than those of non-employed people. Conclusion: There are differences in the total scores of the core knowledge of chronic disease prevention and control in different characteristics of people in China, and in the future, health education on the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases should be strengthened for specific groups to improve the knowledge level of residents.
Female ; Humans ; Male ; China/epidemiology* ; Chronic Disease ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; East Asian People ; Occupations ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice

Objective: To forecast mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes, and to simulate the impact of controlling risk factors by 2030 in China. Methods: We simulated the burden of disease from diabetes in six scenarios according to the development goals of risk factors control by the WHO and Chinese government. Based on the theory of comparative risk assessment and the estimates of the burden of disease for China from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, we used the proportional change model to project the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes under different scenarios of risk factors control in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposures to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued. Mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes would increase to 32.57/100 000, 17.32/100 000, and 0.84% by 2030, respectively. During that time, mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality for males would all be higher than for females. If the goals of controlling risk factors were all achieved, the number of deaths from diabetes in 2030 would decrease by 62.10% compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends in exposure to risk factors, and the probability of premature mortality would drop to 0.29%. If only the exposure to a single risk factor were achieved by 2030, high fasting plasma glucose control would have the greatest impact on diabetes, resulting in a 56.00% reduction in deaths compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends, followed by high BMI (4.92%), smoking (0.65%), and low physical activity (0.53%). Conclusions: Risk factors control plays an important role in reducing the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes. We suggest taking comprehensive measures to control relevant risk factors for certain populations and regions, to achieve the goal of reducing the burden of disease from diabetes as expected.
Male ; Female ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology* ; Mortality, Premature ; Smoking ; Cost of Illness ; China/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease

Objective: Predictive models were used to evaluate the impact of common risk factors on the number of cardio-cerebrovascular deaths and the probability of premature death. Methods: Using the data for China estimated by the Global Burden of Disease study 2015 (GBD 2015), we calculated the population attribution fraction (PAF) of risk factors. The proportional change model was used to estimate the number of unattributable deaths by 2030, and to predict the number of deaths, mortality, standardized mortality and probability of premature death by 2030. Results: According to the natural change trend of risk factors from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality would reach 6.12 million and 428.53/100 000 by 2030, with an increase of 59.92% and 52.87%. By 2030, the probability of premature death from cardio-cerebrovascular diseases among Chinese aged 30-70 years old would continue to decline, from 11.43% to 11.28% for men, and from 5.79% to 4.43% for women. If the goals of all included risk factors were reached by 2030, 2 289 200 cardio-cerebrovascular deaths would be avoided. If only the exposure to a single risk factor was achieved by 2030, blood pressure, total cholesterol, and fine particulate matter exposure were the three most important factors affecting cardio-cerebrovascular deaths, which would reduce 1 332 800, 609 100 and 306 800 deaths, respectively. Among the involved risk factors, the control of blood pressure would mostly decrease the number of deaths due to ischemic heart disease and hemorrhagic stroke, about 677 300 and 391 100 deaths, accordingly. Conclusion: The control of risk factors is of great significance in reducing deaths and probability of premature death due to cardio-cerebrovascular diseases. If the control targets of all risk factors could be achieved by 2030, the burden of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases would be reduced greatly.
Adult ; Aged ; Blood Pressure ; Cerebrovascular Disorders/epidemiology* ; China/epidemiology* ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Mortality, Premature ; Risk Factors

Objective: To analyze mortality and its trend of chronic respiratory diseases (CRD) in China from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Based on the provincial results of China from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, the average annual percent change (AAPC) of standardized mortality rates of different CRDs were analyzed by using Joinpoint 4.8.0.1, and the age-standardized mortality rate of CRD was calculated by using the GBD 2019 world standard population. Based on the comparative risk assessment theory of GBD, the attributable deaths due to 12 CRD risk factors were estimated, including smoking, indoor air pollution, occupational gas exposure, particulates and smog exposure, environmental particulate pollution, low temperature, passive smoking, ozone pollution, occupational exposure to silica, occupational asthma, high body mass index, high temperature and occupational exposure to asbestos. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the number of deaths and standardized mortality of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) showed a downward trend (P<0.001). The number of COPD deaths decreased from 1 244 000 (912 000 - 1 395 000) in 1990 to 1 037 000 (889 000 - 1 266 000) in 2019. AAPC=-0.9% (95%CI: -1.5% - -0.3%), P<0.001; The standardized mortality rate decreased from 217.9/100 000 (163.3/100 000 - 242.0/100 000) in 1990 to 65.2/100 000 (55.5/100 000 - 80.1/100 000) in 2019. AAPC= -4.2% (95%CI:-5.2% - -3.2%), P<0.001. The number of deaths from asthma decreased from 40 000 (30 000 - 58 000) in 1990 to 25 000 (20 000 - 31 000) in 2019. AAPC=-2.0% (95%CI: -2.6% - -1.4%), P<0.001; The standardized mortality rate of asthma decreased from 6.4/100 000 (4.7/100 000 - 9.5/100 000) in 1990 to 1.5/100 000 (1.2/100 000 - 1.9/100 000) in 2019. AAPC=-5.1% (95%CI: -5.8% - -4.4%), P<0.001. The number of pneumoconiosis deaths decreased from 11 000 (8 000 - 14 000) in 1990 to 10 000 (8 000 - 14 000) in 2019, AAPC=-0.2%(95%CI:-0.4% - 0.1%), P=0.200; The standardized mortality rate of pneumoconiosis decreased from 1.4/100 000 (1.0/100 000 - 1.7/100 000) in 1990 to 0.5/100 000 (0.4/100 000 - 0.7/100 000) in 2019. AAPC=-3.1% (95%CI: -3.4% - -2.8%), P<0.001. The number of deaths from pulmonary interstitial diseases and pulmonary sarcoidosis increased from 3 000 (3 000 - 6 000) in 1990 to 8 000 (6 000 - 10 000) in 2019, AAPC=3.5% (95%CI: 2.7% - 4.2%), P<0.001; The corresponding standardized mortality rate changed little from 1990 to 2019, and AAPC was not statistically significant.The age-standardized mortality rates of different CRDs were higher in men than those in women. In 1990 and 2019, the mortality rates of COPD, asthma, pneumoconiosis and interstitial pulmonary disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis increased with age. In 2019, the population attributable fractions (PAFs) for smoking, environmental particulate pollution, occupational gas exposure, particulate and smog exposure, low temperature exposure and passive smoking were 71.1% (68.0% - 74.3%), 24.7% (20.1% - 30.0%), 19.3% (13.0% - 25.4%), 15.7% (13.6% - 18.3%) and 8.8% (4.5% - 13.1%) respectively in men, and the PAFs for environmental particulate pollution, smoking, low temperature exposure, occupational gas exposure, particulate and smog exposure, and passive smoking were 24.1% (19.6% - 29.3%), 21.9% (18.7% - 25.2%), 16.4% (14.0% - 19.2%), 15.6% (10.2% - 21.1%) and 14.7% (7.9% - 21.3%) respectively in women. Conclusions: During 1990-2019, the overall death level of CRD decreased significantly in China, but it is still at high level in the world. Active prevention and control measures should be taken to reduce the death level caused by CRD.
Asthma ; China/epidemiology* ; Female ; Global Burden of Disease ; Humans ; Male ; Mortality ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years

Objective: To predict the number of deaths, standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control at different levels in China in 2030, and assess the possibility of achieving the target of reducing the probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. Methods: According to the risk factor control standard for malignant cancer used both at home and abroad, the results of China from Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 were used to calculate the population attributable fraction of the risk factors. Based on the comparative risk assessment theory, the deaths of malignant cancer were classified as attributable deaths and un-attributable deaths. Proportional change model was used to predict risk factor exposure and un-attributable deaths of malignant cancer in the future, then the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer in 2030 was estimated. Data analyses were performed by using software R 3.6.1. Results: If the risk factor exposure level during 1990-2015 remains, the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer would increase to 3.62 million, 153.96/100 000 and 8.92% by 2030, respectively. If the risk factor exposure control level meets the requirement, the probability of premature mortality from cancer in people aged 30-70 years would drop to 7.57% by 2030. Conclusions: The control of risk factor exposure will play an important role in reducing deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. But more efforts are needed to achieve the goals of Health China Action.
Adult ; Aged ; China/epidemiology* ; Cost of Illness ; Humans ; Middle Aged ; Mortality, Premature ; Neoplasms/epidemiology* ; Risk Factors

Objective: To forecast the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China by 2030 and evaluate the effectiveness of controlling risk factors based on the predictive model. Methods: Based on the relationship between the death of COPD and exposure to risk factors and the theory of comparative risk assessment, we used the estimates of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD2015) for China, targets for controlling risk factors, and proportion change model to project the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from chronic respiratory diseases by 2030 in different scenarios and to evaluate the impact of controlling the included risk factors to the disease burden of COPD in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposure to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued, the number of deaths and the mortality for COPD would be 1.06 million and 73.85 per 100 000 population in China by 2030, respectively, with an increase of 15.81% and 10.69% compared to those in 2015. Compared to 2015, the age-standardized mortality rate would decrease by 38.88%, and the premature mortality would reduce by 52.73% by 2030. If the smoking rate and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentration separately achieve their control targets by 2030, there would be 0.34 and 0.27 million deaths that could be avoided compared to the predicted numbers based on the natural trends in exposure to risk factors and the probability of premature death would reduce to 0.59% and 0.52%, respectively. If the control targets of all included risk factors were achieved by 2030, a total of 0.53 million deaths would be averted, and the probability of premature death would decrease to 0.44%. Conclusions: If the exposures to risk factors continued as showed from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality for COPD would increase by 2030 compared to 2015, and the standardized mortality and the probability of premature death would decrease significantly, which would achieve the targets of preventing and controlling COPD. If the exposure to the included risk factors all achieved the targets by 2030, the burden of COPD would be reduced, suggesting that the control of tobacco use and air pollution should be enhanced to prevent and control COPD.
Air Pollutants/analysis* ; Air Pollution/prevention & control* ; China/epidemiology* ; Cost of Illness ; Environmental Exposure ; Humans ; Particulate Matter/analysis* ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/prevention & control* ; Risk Factors