1.Application of optimized combination prediction model in the prediction of hand, foot and mouth disease
Weijie TIAN ; Qian GAO ; Kun YANG ; Zhirong ZHAO ; Jian CHEN
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2026;37(1):58-62
Objective To explore scientific and accurate prediction methods for the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in the post-pandemic era, and to address modeling challenges caused by abnormal fluctuations in case numbers from 2020 to 2023. Methods The seasonal index was used to pre-process the data. The traditional seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, singular spectrum analysis (SSA)-ARIMA model, ARIMA-Long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model were used to fit the incidence from 2013 to 2023, and the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in 2024 was predicted. The real data collected in 2024 were used as the test set to compare the prediction performance of the models. Results The fitting performance of the constructed models was as follows: the ARIMA model had MAE=107.50 and RMSE=144.53, the SSA-ARIMA model showed MAE=2.84 and RMSE=4.33, the ARIMA-LSTM model achieved MAE=99.46 and RMSE=131.59, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model had MAE=96.35 and RMSE=132.13. In terms of prediction performance, the ARIMA model resulted in MAE=151.64 and RMSE=146.70, the SSA-ARIMA model demonstrated MAE=41.22 and RMSE=57.01, the ARIMA-LSTM model yielded MAE=220.75 and RMSE=257.89, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model recorded MAE=58.83 and RMSE=72.06. Conclusion The SSA-ARIMA model has the best fitting degree and the highest prediction accuracy, and is suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease.
2.Research progress and clinical challenges in immunosuppressive regimens for xenotransplantation
Yu ZHANG ; Kun WANG ; Xuyuan ZHU ; Yuxiang CHEN ; Tao LI ; Xiaojie MA ; Hongtao JIANG
Organ Transplantation 2026;17(1):28-35
As a pivotal strategy to alleviate the shortage of organ donors, xenotransplantation has achieved remarkable advances in both pre-clinical and clinical studies in recent years, driven by continuous optimization of gene modification techniques and immunosuppressive regimens. Nevertheless, clinical translation still confronts formidable challenges, including rejection and heightened infection risks, which severely compromise long-term graft survival. Consequently, the role of immunosuppressive regimens in xenotransplantation has become increasingly prominent. This article summarizes the mechanisms underlying xenogeneic immune rejection, the latest developments in immunosuppressive regimens, cutting-edge strategies for inducing immune tolerance and the major hurdles facing clinical xenotransplantation. It delves into potential optimization strategies and directions for future clinical research, aiming to offer theoretical insights and practical guidance for the safe and effective application of clinical xenotransplantation.
3.Research on the Correlation Between "Tiangui (天癸)" and Female Reproductive Genetic Diseases
Kun MA ; Ling WANG ; Lihua SUN
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2026;67(9):1027-1032
This article further reveals the significance of "tiangui (天癸)" in female reproductive genetic diseases by analyzing the core influence of the "kidney-tiangui-chong and ren mai (冲任)-uterus" reproductive axis on the processes of birth, growth, robustness, and aging in females. Approaching tiangui through its heredity, material basis, temporality, rhythmicity, functional diversity and genetic polymorphism, and integrating reproductive genetics with epigenetics, it explores the potential associations between the characteristics of tiangui and the pathogenesis, clinical features, and therapeutic targets of female reproductive genetic diseases. This study furnishes a novel genetic interpretation of the physiological and pathological features of tiangui, offering scientific basis for the integrated prevention and treatment of female reproductive genetic diseases with traditional Chinese and western medicine.
4.Overcoming organ shortage: key clinical application technology breakthroughs and future prospects in xenogeneic organ transplantation
Junze CHEN ; Cheng ZHANG ; Yongyuan JIAN ; Kun DONG ; Shuaijun MA ; Chunqiang DONG
Organ Transplantation 2026;17(3):393-404
The technology of xenogeneic organ transplantation, as one of the core strategies to address the current contradiction between the supply and demand of transplant organs, has achieved significant breakthroughs from basic research to clinical application driven by factors such as the innovation of gene modification technology, the injection of research capital and the expansion of clinical trials, especially with the first actual clinical application of a pig heart-to-human transplant. China is also at the forefront of this field. This article intends to summarize the international research trends of xenogeneic organ transplantation (including financial support, the evolution of research stages and global clinical trial cases), and analyze the evolution and optimization of xenogeneic transplantation immunosuppression schemes, as well as the breakthroughs and unresolved scientific issues in current key clinical application technologies. The aim is to comprehensively present the progress of this field from basic research to clinical transformation, and provide references for promoting the rapid development of China's xenogeneic transplantation technology and subsequent clinical transformation and research directions.
5.Research on the Correlation Between "Tiangui (天癸)" and Female Reproductive Genetic Diseases
Kun MA ; Ling WANG ; Lihua SUN
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2026;67(9):1027-1032
This article further reveals the significance of "tiangui (天癸)" in female reproductive genetic diseases by analyzing the core influence of the "kidney-tiangui-chong and ren mai (冲任)-uterus" reproductive axis on the processes of birth, growth, robustness, and aging in females. Approaching tiangui through its heredity, material basis, temporality, rhythmicity, functional diversity and genetic polymorphism, and integrating reproductive genetics with epigenetics, it explores the potential associations between the characteristics of tiangui and the pathogenesis, clinical features, and therapeutic targets of female reproductive genetic diseases. This study furnishes a novel genetic interpretation of the physiological and pathological features of tiangui, offering scientific basis for the integrated prevention and treatment of female reproductive genetic diseases with traditional Chinese and western medicine.
6.Theoretical Exploration of Diabetic Retinopathy Guided by Luobing Theory
Liping CHANG ; Jing MA ; Kun MA ; Zhenhua JIA ; Cong WEI
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(1):253-258
Diabetic retinopathy(DR), as one of the most common and serious microvascular complications of diabetes mellitus, seriously threatens human health, and belongs to "Xiaoke eye diseases" in traditional Chinese medicine(TCM), which has been richly experienced by medical practitioners through the ages, but is mostly recorded in a piecemeal manner and has not been systematically researched. This disease is featured by long course and repeated attack, and is refractory, which belongs to the research category of "persistent illness entering collaterals". Systematic establishment of TCM collateral disease theory for guiding prevention and treatment of DR has important clinical value. On the basis of close correlation between tertiary collaterals at the terminal of collaterals and capillaries and microcirculation, the concept of "tertiary collaterals-microvascular" is proposed. It is pointed out that DR falls within the scope of "tertiary collaterals-microvascular" diseases, and presents four types of micro-pathological characteristics, including stasis, insufficiency, growth and bleeding of tertiary collaterals. It is concluded that "deficiency of both Qi and Yin" is the basic pathogenesis of DR, and "blood stasis and collateral obstruction" is the important pathogenesis and key factor. Thus, the treatment method of "dispersing blood stasis, dredging collateral, tonifying Qi and Yin, stopping hemorrhage and improving eyesight" is determined, and the formula of Tongluo Mingmu capsules is developed. The article tightly focuses on the pathological changes such as stasis, growth, insufficiency and bleeding of collaterals, addresses both symptoms and root causes, and plays a synergistic role of both dispersing stasis and stopping bleeding. In this way, it can realize the purpose of tonifying Qi and Yin to replenish the essence, dispersing stasis and dredging collaterals to meet the requirement, as well as stopping hemorrhage and improving eyesight to deal with changes. Fundamental researches demonstrate that Tongluo Mingmu capsules has synergy effects of protecting both retinal capillaries and retinal cells. Phase-Ⅲ clinical trial of new drug has proven definite clinical efficacy and good safety, which provides a new drug choice for enhancing clinical effect of DR, and further supports the scientific value of Luobing theory in preventing and treating DR and other clinically significant diseases.
7.Premature Aging Prevention and Treatment Guided by Essence-Qi-Spirit Theory of Qiluo Doctrine: A Review
Chuanyuan JI ; Hongrong LI ; Jiameng HAO ; Dandong WANG ; Yucong MA ; Kun MA ; Cong WEI
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(2):279-285
The theoretical basis of premature aging originates from The Yellow Emperor's Inner Classic. The etiology of premature aging is complex, and the disease mechanism is based on deficiency. The treatment for premature aging is based on tonicity. The essence-Qi-spirit theory of Qiluo doctrine summarizes that "essence is the origin of life, Qi is the driving force of life, and spirit is the embodiment of life", which is the law of life. The theory puts forward the core disease mechanism of aging, which states that "deficiency of kidney essence is the root of aging, deficiency of primordial Qi is the key to aging, impairment of soma and spirit is the manifestation of aging". The theory also proposes the treatment of "tonifying kidney and supplementing essence, harmonizing Yin and Yang, warming and supporting primordial Qi, and nourishing soma and spirit" and the representative anti-aging drugs. The article unfolds from the perspective of the concepts of natural life span, premature senility before fifty, decline, and aging and also explains the origins and connotations of premature aging. The article explains the disease mechanism of premature aging under the guidance of the essence-Qi-spirit theory of Qiluo doctrine, which is "early deprivation of kidney essence, deficiency of primordial Qi, accumulation of deficiencies into impairment, and decline and impairment of soma and spirit", summarizes the progress of modern medical research on the treatment of premature aging and representative drugs, and finds that Bazi Bushen capsules have a precise therapeutic effect on the overall premature aging, systematic functional decline, and related diseases. The study provides theoretical basis and new ideas to solve the problems of premature aging and geriatric diseases.
8.Clinical characterization and prognostic modeling of second primary malignancies following gastric adenocarcinoma:a SEER database-based study
Hongbin WANG ; Wei HE ; Yifei CHEN ; Kun MA ; Linsong MU ; Zhongchuan LYU ; Zhongliang MA
Journal of Army Medical University 2025;47(23):2979-2990
Objective To analyze clinical characteristics affecting survival outcomes in gastric adenocarcinoma(GAC)patients with second primary malignancies(SPM)and construct a predictive model with a web-based calculator.Methods Patients diagnosed with GAC between January 2010 and December 2017 in the SEER database(n=24 085)were analyzed,comparing non-SPM(n=22 963)and SPM cohorts(n=1 122).SPM patients were randomized(3:1)into training(n=842)and internal validation cohorts(n=280).Univariate/multivariate Cox regression identified prognostic factors for model construction.Model performance was evaluated via ROC curves,calibration plots,and decision curve analysis(DCA).A web-based calculator was deployed using DynNom(https://kunma697.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp-1/).External validation used 192 SPM patients diagnosed at Yantai Yuhuangding Hospital(2010-2017).Results χ2 tests revealed SPM patients had higher age(56.3%),earlier T-stage(T1:29.2%;T2:10.5%),predominant gastric cardia involvement(43.7%),fewer distant metastases(12.3%),and higher rates of radiotherapy(32.5%)and surgery(77.2%)vs.non-SPM(P<0.05).Cox analyses identified GAC primary site,T-stage,SEER stage,radiotherapy/surgery history,plus SPM grade/stage/treatment history as significant predictors(P<0.05).AUCs in the training cohort were 0.771(95%CI:0.722~0.820),0.839(95%CI:0.796~0.882),and 0.836(95%CI:0.792~0.879)for 1-/3-/5-year survival;internal validation showed 0.751(95%CI:0.700~0.801),0.746(95%CI:0.695~0.797),and 0.772(95%CI:0.723~0.821);external validation yielded 0.713(95%CI:0.648~0.778),0.805(95%CI:0.749~0.861),and 0.851(95%CI:0.801~0.901).Calibration indicated high prediction-actuality concordance;DCA confirmed clinical utility.Conclusion The model and web calculator incorporating GAC/SPM characteristics effectively predict SPM patient prognosis.
9.Experimental study on the effect of different surface treatment methods on the anti staining ability of lithium disilicate glass ceramics
Zhibo Ji ; Xiaowen Li ; Xinyi Xu ; Guoyi Song ; Kun Ma ; Lei Sun
Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui 2025;60(10):1943-1948
Objective:
To evaluate the effects of different surface treatment methods and simulated aging on the roughness, microhardness, and color stability of lithium disilicate glass ceramics(LDC).
Methods:
The LDC were grouped and performed 5 kinds of surface treatments: control group, polishing group, polishing+polishing paste group, glazing group, polishing+glazing group. The roughness and microhardness of the specimen were measured. Then the specimens were divided into two subgroupswhich were treated with water and staining solution. The specimens were measured color parameters before and after processing. The above data was analyzed.
Results:
The LDC had changes in surface roughness and microhardness after different surface treatments. The polishing+polishing paste group had the lowest surface roughness, and the surface microhardness of the LDC decreased after glazing. After simulating aging, the difference of color and transparency of the polishing+polishing paste group, glazing group, and polishing+glazing group were the smallest.
Conclusion
Different surface treatments and simulated aging have a certain impact on the roughness, microhardness, and color stability of LDC. Fine polishing with polishing paste has a comparable anti staining effect to glazing on LDC.
10.The Effects of Qufeng Tongqiao Cough-Relieving Decoction (祛风通窍止咳方) on Cough Sensitivity,TRPV4 in Lung and Nasal Mucosal Tissues,and Neurogenic Inflammation in a Guinea Pig Model of Upper Airway Cough Syndrome
Jingshu LUO ; Jianling MA ; Liqing SHI ; Kun JI ; Song LIU ; Yuhan FAN ; Xianli LI ; Zhaodi GUO
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;66(5):518-525
ObjectiveTo investigate the potential mechanism of action of the Qufeng Tongqiao Cough-relieving Decoction (祛风通窍止咳方, QTCD) in the treatment of upper airway cough syndrome (UACS). MethodsTwenty-four guinea pigs were randomly divided into blank group, model group, traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) group, and inhibitor group, with six guinea pigs in each group. Except for the blank group, guinea pigs were sensitized with ovalbumin and aluminum hydroxide via intraperitoneal injection, followed by ovalbumin nasal drops combined with smoke exposure to establish the UACS model. After modeling, the TCM group was administered QTCD 0.9 g/(100 g·d) by gavage, the inhibitor group received the transient receptor potential vanilloid receptor 4 (TRPV4) inhibitor GSK2193874 1 mmol/L, 5 min by nebulisation, and the blank group and model group were given 2 ml/(100 g·d) normal saline by gavage once daily. After 7 days of treatment, a cough provocation test was performed using 0.4 mol/L citric acid. The levels of IgE in serum and inflammatory cytokines, including interleukin-6 (IL-6), interleukin-8 (IL-8) in serum, bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF), and nasal lavage fluid (NLF) were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Histopathological changes in lung and nasal mucosal tissues were observed by hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining. Immunohistochemistry was used to detect the protein levels of TRPV4, substance P (SP), and calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) in lung and nasal mucosal tissues. Real-time polymerase chain reaction (Real-time PCR) was used to detect the mRNA expression of TRPV4, SP, and CGRP in lung tissues. ResultsHE staining showed significant structural damage and infiltration of inflammatory cells in the lung and nasal mucosal tissues in the model group, while the TCM group and inhibitor group showed improved pathological changes. Compared with the blank group, the model group showed increased cough frequency, serum IgE level, and IL-6 and IL-8 levels in serum, BALF, and NLF. The protein levels of TRPV4, SP, and CGRP in lung and nasal mucosal tissues and their mRNA expression were elevated (P<0.05 or P<0.01). Compared with the model group, the TCM group and inhibitor group showed reduced cough frequency, serum IgE level, and TRPV4 and SP mRNA expression in lung tissues. The TCM group showed reduced IL-6 and IL-8 levels in serum, BALF, and NLF, and reduced TRPV4 and CGRP protein levels in lung and nasal mucosal tissues. The inhibitor group showed reduced IL-6 and IL-8 levels in serum, BALF, and NLF, reduced IL-6 in BALF, reduced IL-8 in NLF, and decreased TRPV4, SP, and CGRP protein levels in lung tissues and SP and CGRP protein levels in nasal mucosal tissues (P<0.05 or P<0.01). Compared with the TCM group, the inhibitor group had increased serum IgE, IL-6, and IL-8 levels, increased IL-6 level in BALF, and increased IL-8 levle in NLF, but decreased SP protein level in lung tissues and increased TRPV4 and SP mRNA expression in lung tissues (P<0.01). ConclusionQTCD effectively reduces cough frequency in the UACS guinea pig model. Its mechanism may involve inhibiting the activation of the TRPV4 pathway, improving airway neurogenic inflammation, alleviating inflammatory responses, and reducing cough hypersensitivity.


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