1.Causal association of obesity and chronic pain mediated by educational attainment and smoking: a mediation Mendelian randomization study
Yunshu LYU ; Qingxing LU ; Yane LIU ; Mengtong XIE ; Lintong JIANG ; Junnan LI ; Ning WANG ; Xianglong DAI ; Yuqi YANG ; Peiming JIANG ; Qiong YU
The Korean Journal of Pain 2025;38(2):177-186
Background:
Obesity and chronic pain are related in both directions, according to earlier observational research.This research aimed to analyze the causal association between obesity and chronic pain at the genetic level, as well as to assess whether common factors mediate this relationship.
Methods:
This study used bidirectional two sample Mendelian randomization (MR) technique to analyze the association between obesity and chronic pain. Obesity's summary genome-wide association data were obtained from European ancestry groups, as measured by body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio, waist circumference (WC), and hip circumference (HC), genome-wide association study data for chronic pain also came from the UK population, including chronic pain at three different sites (back, hip, and headache), chronic widespread pain (CWP), and multisite chronic pain (MCP). Secondly, a two-step MR and multivariate MR investigation was performed to evaluate the mediating effects of several proposed confounders.
Results:
The authors discovered a link between chronic pain and obesity. More specifically, a sensitivity analysis was done to confirm the associations between greater BMI, WC, and HC with an increased risk of CWP and MCP.Importantly, the intermediate MR results suggest that education levels and smoking initiation may mediate the causal relationship between BMI on CWP, with a mediation effect of 23.08% and 15.38%, respectively.
Conclusions
The authors’ findings demonstrate that the importance of education and smoking in understanding chronic pain’s pathogenesis, which is important for the primary prevention and prognosis of chronic pain.
2.Clinical Comprehensive Evaluation of Guanxinjing Capsules in Treating Angina Pectoris of Coronary Heart Disease with Syndrome of Qi Deficiency and Blood Stasis in "6+1" Dimensions
Mengmeng WANG ; Xin CUI ; Jian LYU ; Yanming XIE ; Lianxin WANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(2):120-128
ObjectiveTo systematically review the available studies about Guanxinjing capsules in treating angina pectoris of coronary heart disease (syndrome of Qi deficiency and blood stasis), evaluate the evidence quality and comprehensive value of Guanxinjing capsules in 6+1 dimensions involving 9 aspects, and clarify the clinical positioning and advantages of this medicine. MethodsA qualitative combined with quantitative evaluation method was adopted, involving clinical medicine, epidemiology, evidence-based medicine, and pharmacoeconomics. Through public data collection, questionnaire surveys, real-world data collection, and literature comprehensive evaluation, an evaluation system involving 9 aspects in 6+1 dimensions was constructed for Guanxinjing capsules. Experts assigned weights to the criterion layer and indicator layer, and the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) model and CSC (V2.0) were employed to measure each dimension and reveal the clinical value of Guanxinjing capsules. Results①The evaluation results showed that Guanxinjing capsules are safe. According to the adverse reactions in the instructions, the systematic evaluation and meta-analysis of clinical safety, and the data collected by the National Center for Adverse Drug Reaction Monitoring, the adverse reactions of Guanxinjing capsules mainly include chest tightness, dyspnea, dizziness, and digestive system-related symptoms, with a standardized score of 0.75 points, which suggests good safety. ②The meta-analysis results suggest that according to the same efficacy standards, the effectiveness of Guanxinjing capsules alone and Guanxinjing capsules combined with conventional Western medicine or Chinese patent medicines is higher than that of conventional Western medicine or the Chinese patent medicine Shenshao capsules alone in treating coronary heart disease. The standardized score of effectiveness is 0.57, which indicates that the effectiveness still requires evidence support. ③With the individual disposable income in 2020 as the expected payment assumption threshold, compared with conventional treatment alone, combining Guanxinjing capsules with conventional treatment is cost-effective and economical for the patients with angina pectoris of coronary heart disease under certain conditions (higher than 106.91 yuan), which suggests good economy. ④At present, 3 patents for the invention of Guanxinjing capsules have been approved, covering multiple fields such as clinical innovation, service system innovation, and industrial development, which implies good innovation. ⑤In addition, the questionnaire surveys for medical staff involve five different dimensions, and the statistical scores and evaluation results show good suitability of Guanxinjing capsules. ⑥The reimbursement rate of Guanxinjing capsules by residents is high. The sampling survey results show that Guanxinjing capsules are fully equipped in hospitals across China and have good accessibility. ⑦Derived from the theory of activating blood and resolving stasis proposed by Wang Qingren, a famous physician in the Qing Dynasty, Guanxinjing capsules integrate multiple therapies such as replenishing Qi, nourishing Yin, and aromatic warming and unblocking. According to the analysis data in the "6+1" dimensions, the clinical comprehensive evaluation score of Guanxinjing capsules for angina pectoris of coronary heart disease (syndrome of Qi deficiency and blood stasis) was 0.73. ConclusionThe results of comprehensive evaluation of each dimension and clinical value suggest that Guanxinjing capsules in treating angina pectoris of coronary heart disease (syndrome of Qi deficiency and blood stasis) have sufficient clinical evidence, good safety, suitability, and accessibility. It is recommended that Guanxinjing capsules can be included in the documents of basic clinical medication management in accordance with the established procedure.
3.Shaoyaotang Containing Serum Mediates Fas/FasL Pathway to Inhibit Lipopolysaccharide Induced Inflammation and Apoptosis of Caco-2 Cells
Yuting YANG ; Dongsheng WU ; Hui CAO ; Yu ZHANG ; Nianjia XIE ; Bo ZOU ; Daguang CHEN ; Erle LIU ; Yi LU ; Zhaowen LYU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(13):62-69
ObjectiveTo investigate the effects of different concentrations of Shaoyaotang-containing serum on lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced inflammation of human colorectal adenocarcinoma (Caco-2) cells by inhibiting apoptosis via activating the tumor necrosis factor (TNF) receptor superfamily member 6 (Fas)/Fas ligand (FasL) pathway. MethodsCaco-2 cells were allocated into blank, model (LPS, 10 mg·L-1), Shaoyaotang-containing serum (5%, 10%, 15%, 20%), and Fas inhibitor (KR-33493, 20 mmol·L-1) groups. Except the blank group, the other groups were stimulated with 10 mg·L-1 LPS for 24 h for the modeling of inflammation. After successful modeling, the blank, Fas inhibitor, and model groups were treated with blank serum, and the Shaoyaotang-containing serum groups were treated with the serum samples at corresponding concentrations for 24 h. The Fas inhibitor group was subjected to KR-33493 pretreatment for 1 h. Cell proliferation and viability were examined by the cell-counting kit-8 (CCK-8) method. The levels of interleukin (IL)-6, IL-1β, and TNF-α were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Apoptosis was detected by flow cytometry. The protein and mRNA levels of Fas, FasL, cysteinyl aspartate-specific proteinase (Caspase)-3, Caspase-9, B-cell lymphoma 2 (Bcl-2), and Bcl-2-associated X protein (Bax) were determined by Western blot and Real-time fluorescence quantitative polymerase chain reaction (Real-time PCR), respectively. ResultsCompared with the blank group, the model group presented a decrease in cell survival rate (P<0.01). Compared with that in the model group, the cell survival rate showed no significant change in the 5% Shaoyaotang-containing serum group but increased in the 10%, 15%, and 20% Shaoyaotang-containing serum groups (P<0.01). Since there was no statistical difference between the 5% Shaoyaotang-containing serum group and the model group, 10%, 15%, and 20% Shaoyaotang-containing sera were selected for the follow-up study. Compared with the blank group, the model group showed risen levels of IL-6, IL-1β, and TNF-α (P<0.01), an increased apoptosis rate (P<0.01), up-regulated protein and mRNA levels of Fas, FasL, Caspase-3, Caspase-9, and Bax (P<0.01), and down-regulated protein and mRNA levels of Bcl-2 (P<0.01). Compared with the model group, the Fas inhibitor group and the 10%, 15%, and 20% Shaoyaotang-containing serum groups showed declined levels of IL-6, IL-1β, and TNF-α (P<0.01), decreased apoptosis rates (P<0.01), down-regulated protein and mRNA levels of Fas, FasL, Caspase-3, Caspase-9, and Bax (P<0.05, P<0.01), and up-regulated protein and mRNA levels of Bcl-2 (P<0.05, P<0.01). In addition, the 15% and 20% Shaoyaotang-containing serum groups had lower levels of IL-6, IL-1β, and TNF-α (P<0.05, P<0.01), lower apoptosis rates (P<0.05, P<0.01), lower protein and mRNA levels of Fas, FasL, Caspase-3, Caspase-9, and Bax (P<0.05, P<0.01), and higher protein and mRNA levels of Bcl-2 (P<0.05, P<0.01) than the 10% Shaoyaotang-containing serum group. ConclusionThe Shaoyaotang-containing serum can reduce the content of inflammatory factors in Caco-2 cells, down-regulate the protein and mRNA levels of Fas, FasL, Caspase-3, Caspase-9, and Bax, and up-regulate the protein and mRNA levels of Bcl-2 under the intervention of LPS by regulating the Fas/FasL pathway and inhibiting the apoptosis of intestinal epithelial cells in ulcerative colitis.
4.Shaoyaotang Containing Serum Mediates Fas/FasL Pathway to Inhibit Lipopolysaccharide Induced Inflammation and Apoptosis of Caco-2 Cells
Yuting YANG ; Dongsheng WU ; Hui CAO ; Yu ZHANG ; Nianjia XIE ; Bo ZOU ; Daguang CHEN ; Erle LIU ; Yi LU ; Zhaowen LYU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(13):62-69
ObjectiveTo investigate the effects of different concentrations of Shaoyaotang-containing serum on lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced inflammation of human colorectal adenocarcinoma (Caco-2) cells by inhibiting apoptosis via activating the tumor necrosis factor (TNF) receptor superfamily member 6 (Fas)/Fas ligand (FasL) pathway. MethodsCaco-2 cells were allocated into blank, model (LPS, 10 mg·L-1), Shaoyaotang-containing serum (5%, 10%, 15%, 20%), and Fas inhibitor (KR-33493, 20 mmol·L-1) groups. Except the blank group, the other groups were stimulated with 10 mg·L-1 LPS for 24 h for the modeling of inflammation. After successful modeling, the blank, Fas inhibitor, and model groups were treated with blank serum, and the Shaoyaotang-containing serum groups were treated with the serum samples at corresponding concentrations for 24 h. The Fas inhibitor group was subjected to KR-33493 pretreatment for 1 h. Cell proliferation and viability were examined by the cell-counting kit-8 (CCK-8) method. The levels of interleukin (IL)-6, IL-1β, and TNF-α were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Apoptosis was detected by flow cytometry. The protein and mRNA levels of Fas, FasL, cysteinyl aspartate-specific proteinase (Caspase)-3, Caspase-9, B-cell lymphoma 2 (Bcl-2), and Bcl-2-associated X protein (Bax) were determined by Western blot and Real-time fluorescence quantitative polymerase chain reaction (Real-time PCR), respectively. ResultsCompared with the blank group, the model group presented a decrease in cell survival rate (P<0.01). Compared with that in the model group, the cell survival rate showed no significant change in the 5% Shaoyaotang-containing serum group but increased in the 10%, 15%, and 20% Shaoyaotang-containing serum groups (P<0.01). Since there was no statistical difference between the 5% Shaoyaotang-containing serum group and the model group, 10%, 15%, and 20% Shaoyaotang-containing sera were selected for the follow-up study. Compared with the blank group, the model group showed risen levels of IL-6, IL-1β, and TNF-α (P<0.01), an increased apoptosis rate (P<0.01), up-regulated protein and mRNA levels of Fas, FasL, Caspase-3, Caspase-9, and Bax (P<0.01), and down-regulated protein and mRNA levels of Bcl-2 (P<0.01). Compared with the model group, the Fas inhibitor group and the 10%, 15%, and 20% Shaoyaotang-containing serum groups showed declined levels of IL-6, IL-1β, and TNF-α (P<0.01), decreased apoptosis rates (P<0.01), down-regulated protein and mRNA levels of Fas, FasL, Caspase-3, Caspase-9, and Bax (P<0.05, P<0.01), and up-regulated protein and mRNA levels of Bcl-2 (P<0.05, P<0.01). In addition, the 15% and 20% Shaoyaotang-containing serum groups had lower levels of IL-6, IL-1β, and TNF-α (P<0.05, P<0.01), lower apoptosis rates (P<0.05, P<0.01), lower protein and mRNA levels of Fas, FasL, Caspase-3, Caspase-9, and Bax (P<0.05, P<0.01), and higher protein and mRNA levels of Bcl-2 (P<0.05, P<0.01) than the 10% Shaoyaotang-containing serum group. ConclusionThe Shaoyaotang-containing serum can reduce the content of inflammatory factors in Caco-2 cells, down-regulate the protein and mRNA levels of Fas, FasL, Caspase-3, Caspase-9, and Bax, and up-regulate the protein and mRNA levels of Bcl-2 under the intervention of LPS by regulating the Fas/FasL pathway and inhibiting the apoptosis of intestinal epithelial cells in ulcerative colitis.
5.Causal association of obesity and chronic pain mediated by educational attainment and smoking: a mediation Mendelian randomization study
Yunshu LYU ; Qingxing LU ; Yane LIU ; Mengtong XIE ; Lintong JIANG ; Junnan LI ; Ning WANG ; Xianglong DAI ; Yuqi YANG ; Peiming JIANG ; Qiong YU
The Korean Journal of Pain 2025;38(2):177-186
Background:
Obesity and chronic pain are related in both directions, according to earlier observational research.This research aimed to analyze the causal association between obesity and chronic pain at the genetic level, as well as to assess whether common factors mediate this relationship.
Methods:
This study used bidirectional two sample Mendelian randomization (MR) technique to analyze the association between obesity and chronic pain. Obesity's summary genome-wide association data were obtained from European ancestry groups, as measured by body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio, waist circumference (WC), and hip circumference (HC), genome-wide association study data for chronic pain also came from the UK population, including chronic pain at three different sites (back, hip, and headache), chronic widespread pain (CWP), and multisite chronic pain (MCP). Secondly, a two-step MR and multivariate MR investigation was performed to evaluate the mediating effects of several proposed confounders.
Results:
The authors discovered a link between chronic pain and obesity. More specifically, a sensitivity analysis was done to confirm the associations between greater BMI, WC, and HC with an increased risk of CWP and MCP.Importantly, the intermediate MR results suggest that education levels and smoking initiation may mediate the causal relationship between BMI on CWP, with a mediation effect of 23.08% and 15.38%, respectively.
Conclusions
The authors’ findings demonstrate that the importance of education and smoking in understanding chronic pain’s pathogenesis, which is important for the primary prevention and prognosis of chronic pain.
6.Causal association of obesity and chronic pain mediated by educational attainment and smoking: a mediation Mendelian randomization study
Yunshu LYU ; Qingxing LU ; Yane LIU ; Mengtong XIE ; Lintong JIANG ; Junnan LI ; Ning WANG ; Xianglong DAI ; Yuqi YANG ; Peiming JIANG ; Qiong YU
The Korean Journal of Pain 2025;38(2):177-186
Background:
Obesity and chronic pain are related in both directions, according to earlier observational research.This research aimed to analyze the causal association between obesity and chronic pain at the genetic level, as well as to assess whether common factors mediate this relationship.
Methods:
This study used bidirectional two sample Mendelian randomization (MR) technique to analyze the association between obesity and chronic pain. Obesity's summary genome-wide association data were obtained from European ancestry groups, as measured by body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio, waist circumference (WC), and hip circumference (HC), genome-wide association study data for chronic pain also came from the UK population, including chronic pain at three different sites (back, hip, and headache), chronic widespread pain (CWP), and multisite chronic pain (MCP). Secondly, a two-step MR and multivariate MR investigation was performed to evaluate the mediating effects of several proposed confounders.
Results:
The authors discovered a link between chronic pain and obesity. More specifically, a sensitivity analysis was done to confirm the associations between greater BMI, WC, and HC with an increased risk of CWP and MCP.Importantly, the intermediate MR results suggest that education levels and smoking initiation may mediate the causal relationship between BMI on CWP, with a mediation effect of 23.08% and 15.38%, respectively.
Conclusions
The authors’ findings demonstrate that the importance of education and smoking in understanding chronic pain’s pathogenesis, which is important for the primary prevention and prognosis of chronic pain.
7.Causal association of obesity and chronic pain mediated by educational attainment and smoking: a mediation Mendelian randomization study
Yunshu LYU ; Qingxing LU ; Yane LIU ; Mengtong XIE ; Lintong JIANG ; Junnan LI ; Ning WANG ; Xianglong DAI ; Yuqi YANG ; Peiming JIANG ; Qiong YU
The Korean Journal of Pain 2025;38(2):177-186
Background:
Obesity and chronic pain are related in both directions, according to earlier observational research.This research aimed to analyze the causal association between obesity and chronic pain at the genetic level, as well as to assess whether common factors mediate this relationship.
Methods:
This study used bidirectional two sample Mendelian randomization (MR) technique to analyze the association between obesity and chronic pain. Obesity's summary genome-wide association data were obtained from European ancestry groups, as measured by body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio, waist circumference (WC), and hip circumference (HC), genome-wide association study data for chronic pain also came from the UK population, including chronic pain at three different sites (back, hip, and headache), chronic widespread pain (CWP), and multisite chronic pain (MCP). Secondly, a two-step MR and multivariate MR investigation was performed to evaluate the mediating effects of several proposed confounders.
Results:
The authors discovered a link between chronic pain and obesity. More specifically, a sensitivity analysis was done to confirm the associations between greater BMI, WC, and HC with an increased risk of CWP and MCP.Importantly, the intermediate MR results suggest that education levels and smoking initiation may mediate the causal relationship between BMI on CWP, with a mediation effect of 23.08% and 15.38%, respectively.
Conclusions
The authors’ findings demonstrate that the importance of education and smoking in understanding chronic pain’s pathogenesis, which is important for the primary prevention and prognosis of chronic pain.
8.Causal association of obesity and chronic pain mediated by educational attainment and smoking: a mediation Mendelian randomization study
Yunshu LYU ; Qingxing LU ; Yane LIU ; Mengtong XIE ; Lintong JIANG ; Junnan LI ; Ning WANG ; Xianglong DAI ; Yuqi YANG ; Peiming JIANG ; Qiong YU
The Korean Journal of Pain 2025;38(2):177-186
Background:
Obesity and chronic pain are related in both directions, according to earlier observational research.This research aimed to analyze the causal association between obesity and chronic pain at the genetic level, as well as to assess whether common factors mediate this relationship.
Methods:
This study used bidirectional two sample Mendelian randomization (MR) technique to analyze the association between obesity and chronic pain. Obesity's summary genome-wide association data were obtained from European ancestry groups, as measured by body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio, waist circumference (WC), and hip circumference (HC), genome-wide association study data for chronic pain also came from the UK population, including chronic pain at three different sites (back, hip, and headache), chronic widespread pain (CWP), and multisite chronic pain (MCP). Secondly, a two-step MR and multivariate MR investigation was performed to evaluate the mediating effects of several proposed confounders.
Results:
The authors discovered a link between chronic pain and obesity. More specifically, a sensitivity analysis was done to confirm the associations between greater BMI, WC, and HC with an increased risk of CWP and MCP.Importantly, the intermediate MR results suggest that education levels and smoking initiation may mediate the causal relationship between BMI on CWP, with a mediation effect of 23.08% and 15.38%, respectively.
Conclusions
The authors’ findings demonstrate that the importance of education and smoking in understanding chronic pain’s pathogenesis, which is important for the primary prevention and prognosis of chronic pain.
9.Trends of diabetes in Beijing, China.
Aijuan MA ; Jun LYU ; Zhong DONG ; Li NIE ; Chen XIE ; Bo JIANG ; Xueyu HAN ; Jing DONG ; Yue ZHAO ; Liming LI
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(6):713-720
BACKGROUND:
The global rise in diabetes prevalence is a pressing concern. Despite initiatives like "The Healthy Beijing Action 2020-2030" advocating for increased awareness, treatment, and control, the specific situation in Beijing remains unexplored. This study aimed to analyze the trends in diabetes prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control among Beijing adults.
METHODS:
Through a stratified multistage probability cluster sampling method, a series of representative cross-sectional surveys were conducted in Beijing from 2005 to 2022, targeting adults aged 18-79 years. A face-to-face questionnaire, along with body measurements and laboratory tests, were administered to 111,943 participants. Data from all survey were age- and/or gender-standardized based on the 2020 Beijing census population. Annual percentage rate change (APC) or average annual percentage rate change (AAPC) was calculated to determine prevalence trends over time. Complex sampling logistic regression models were employed to explore the relationship between various characteristics and diabetes.
RESULTS:
From 2005 to 2022, the total prevalence of diabetes among Beijing adults aged 18-79 years increased from 9.6% (95% CI: 8.8-10.4%) to 13.9% (95% CI: 13.1-14.7%), with an APC/AAPC of 2.1% (95% CI: 1.1-3.2%, P <0.05). Significant increases were observed among adults aged 18-39 years and rural residents. Undiagnosed diabetes rose from 3.5% (95% CI: 3.2-4.0%) to 7.2% (95% CI: 6.6-7.9%) with an APC/AAPC of 4.1% (95% CI: 0.5-7.3%, P <0.05). However, diabetes awareness and treatment rates showed annual declines of 1.4% (95% CI: -3.0% to -0.2%, P <0.05) and 1.3% (95% CI: -2.6% to -0.2%, P <0.05), respectively. The diabetes control rate decreased from 21.5% to 19.1%, although not statistically significant (APC/AAPC = -1.5%, 95% CI: -5.6% to 1.9%). Overweight and obesity were identified as risk factors for diabetes, with ORs of 1.65 (95% CI: 1.38-1.98) and 2.48 (95% CI: 2.07-2.99), respectively.
CONCLUSIONS
The prevalence of diabetes in Beijing has significantly increased between 2005 and 2022, particularly among young adults and rural residents. Meanwhile, there has been a concerning decrease in diabetes awareness and treatment rates, while control rates have remained stagnant. Regular blood glucose testing, especially among adults aged 18-59 years, should be warranted. Furthermore, being male, elderly, overweight, or obese was associated with higher diabetes risk, suggesting the needs for targeted management strategies.
Humans
;
Adult
;
Middle Aged
;
Male
;
Female
;
Aged
;
Adolescent
;
Young Adult
;
Cross-Sectional Studies
;
Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology*
;
Beijing/epidemiology*
;
Prevalence
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Surveys and Questionnaires
10.Construction of a mixed valvular heart disease-related age-adjusted comorbidity index and its predictive value for patient prognosis.
Murong XIE ; Haiyan XU ; Bin ZHANG ; Yunqing YE ; Zhe LI ; Qingrong LIU ; Zhenyan ZHAO ; Junxing LYU ; Yongjian WU
Journal of Zhejiang University. Medical sciences 2025;54(2):230-240
OBJECTIVES:
To create a mixed valvular heart disease (MVHD)-related age-adjusted comorbidity index (MVACI) model for predicting mortality risk of patients with MVHD.
METHODS:
A total of 4080 patients with moderate or severe MVHD in the China-VHD study were included. The primary endpoint was 2-year all-cause mortality. A MVACI model prediction model was constructed based on the mortality risk factors identified by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Restricted cubic splines were used to assess the relationship between MVACI scores and 2-year all-cause mortality. The optimal threshold, determined by the maximum Youden index from receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, was used to stratify patients. Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate 2-year all-cause mortality and compared using the Log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were employed to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), evaluating the association between MVACI scores and mortality. Paired ROC curves were used to compare the discriminative ability of MVACI scores with the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation Ⅱ(EuroSCORE Ⅱ) or the age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (ACCI) in predicting 2-year clinical outcomes, while calibration curves assessed the calibration of these models. Internal validation was performed using the Bootstrap method. Subgroup analyses were conducted based on etiology, treatment strategies, and disease severity.
RESULTS:
Multivariate analysis identified the following variables independently associated with 2-year all-cause mortality in patients: pulmonary hypertension, myocardiopathy, heart failure, low body weight (body mass index <18.5 kg/m2), anaemia, hypoalbuminemia, renal insufficiency, cancer, New York Heart Association (NYHA) class and age. The score was independently associated with the risk of all-cause mortality, and exhibited good discrimination (AUC=0.777, 95%CI: 0.755-0.799) and calibration (Brier score 0.062), with significantly better predictive performance than EuroSCORE Ⅱ or ACCI (both adjusted P<0.01). The internal validation showed that the MVACI model's predicted probability of 2-year all-cause mortality was generally consistent with the actual probability. The AUCs for predicting all-cause mortality risk were all above 0.750, and those for predicting adverse events were all above 0.630. The prognostic value of the score remained consistent in patients regardless of their etiology, therapeutic option, and disease severity.
CONCLUSIONS
The MVACI was constructed in this study based on age and comorbidities, and can be used for mortality risk prediction and risk stratification of MVHD patients. It is a simple algorithmic index and easy to use.
Humans
;
Prognosis
;
Comorbidity
;
Heart Valve Diseases/epidemiology*
;
Female
;
Male
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged
;
Proportional Hazards Models
;
Risk Factors
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Age Factors
;
Risk Assessment
;
Adult
;
ROC Curve

Result Analysis
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