Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

ObjectiveTo investigate the present situation of input, output, outcome and impact of all registered community-based rehabilitation stations in Inner Mongolia in China, and analyze how the input predict the output, outcome and impact. MethodsFrom March 1st to April 30th, 2025, a questionnaire survey was conducted on all registered community-based rehabilitation stations in Inner Mongolia, covering four dimensions: input, output, outcome and impact. A total of 1 365 questionnaires were distributed. The input included four items: laws and policies, human resources, equipment and facilities, and rehabilitation information management. The output included two items: technical paths and benefits/effectiveness. The outcome included three items: coverage rates, rehabilitation interventions and functional results. The impact included two items: health and sustainability. Each item contained several questions, all of which were described in a positive way. Each question was scored from one to five. A lower score indicated that the situation of the community-based rehabilitation station was more in line with the content described in the question. Regression analysis was performed using the total score of each item of input dimension as independent variables, and the total scores of the output, outcome and impact dimensions as dependent variables. ResultsA total of 1 262 valid questionnaires were collected. The mean values of input, output, outcome and impact of community-based rehabilitation stations were 1.827 to 1.904, with coefficient of variation of 45.892% to 49.239%. The regression analysis showed that, rehabilitation information management, human resources, and laws and policies significantly predicted the output dimension (R² = 0.910, P < 0.001). Meanwhile, all four items in the input dimension predicted both the outcome (R² = 0.850, P < 0.001) and impact dimensions (R² = 0.833, P < 0.001). ConclusionInput, output, outcome and impact of the community-based rehabilitation stations in Inner Mongolia were generally in line with the content of the questions, although some imbalances were observed. Additionally, the input of community-based rehabilitation stations could significantly predict their output, outcome and impact.

ObjectiveTo provide a reference for the rational clinical use of cold Chinese medicines by sorting and analyzing their properties， flavors， meridian tropism， primary therapeutic indications， methods of administration， dosages， and precautions as recorded in the 2020 edition of Pharmacopoeia of the People's Republic of China （Chinese Pharmacopoeia）. MethodsCold Chinese medicines for internal and external use included in the 2020 edition of Chinese Pharmacopoeia were entered one by one， and their efficacy， properties， flavors， meridian tropism， methods of administration， dosages， and usage precautions were statistically classified and summarized to guide clinical medication use. ResultsA total of 259 cold Chinese medicines for internal use were included and categorized into 18 efficacy groups， mainly comprising heat-clearing drugs， water-excreting and dampness-draining drugs， and phlegm-resolving， cough- and asthma-relieving drugs. Their predominant flavors were bitter， sweet， and pungent， and they primarily entered the liver， lung， and stomach meridians. The main methods of administration included decocting first， grinding into powder for oral use， or preparing into pills or powders， with most dosages ranging from 9 to 15 g. A total of 83 cold Chinese medicines for external use were included， involving 16 efficacy categories. Their main flavors were bitter， sweet， and pungent， primarily entering the liver， lung， and large intestine meridians. The main external application methods were grinding into powder for topical use or preparing decoctions for fumigation and washing， with most dosages ranging from 9 to 15 g. Whether for internal or external use， cold Chinese medicines should be used with caution or contraindicated in pregnant women. ConclusionThe cold Chinese medicines included in the 2020 edition of the Chinese Pharmacopoeia are mainly suitable for patients with carbuncles， swellings， and coughs. However， in clinical practice， it is necessary to strictly follow the principles of syndrome differentiation and treatment， pay attention to administration methods and dosages， and use cold medicines rationally and effectively to improve clinical efficacy.

Abnormal activation of the Janus kinase/signal transducer and activator of transcription （JAK/STAT） signaling pathway is involved in the pathogenesis of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma （DLBCL）. In recent years， inhibitors targeting JAK2 and STAT3 have emerged as promising therapeutic candidates in DLBCL. This review summarizes the efficacy and safety profiles of JAK2 inhibitors （e.g.， ruxolitinib） and STAT3 inhibitors （direct small-molecule inhibitors， the antisense oligonucleotide， and proteolysis targeting chimeras， etc.） in preclinical models and clinical trials. Accumulating evidence indicates that JAK2 and STAT3 inhibitors exhibit antitumor activity and are generally well tolerated in a subset of DLBCL patients. Meanwhile， the development of novel drug delivery systems has significantly enhanced the stability， bioavailability， and targeting ability of the compounds. Furthermore， JAK2 and STAT3 inhibitors may exhibit synergistic effects when combined with other therapy strategies （such as combinations with B-cell receptor signaling pathway inhibitors， immunomodulators， or other targeted drugs）. However， current clinical applications are still in their early stages. Future research should concentrate on precision treatment strategies based on the genetic subtyping of DLBCL， and further refine the delivery systems for inhibitors as well as combination drug regimens to improve clinical outcomes.

Objective: To investigate the factors influencing intraoperative blood transfusion in patients with hip fractures and to develop a machine learning (ML) model for predicting this risk. Methods: A total of 424 patients with hip fractures who underwent surgical treatment between November 2022 and March 2025 in our hospital were selected. Key feature variables of intraoperative blood transfusion risk were identified using the Boruta algorithm. Four different ML algorithms—support vector machine (SVM), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), mixed discriminant analysis (MDA), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)—were used to develop predictive models for intraoperative blood transfusion risk. The predictive performance of the four ML models were evaluated using accuracy, precision, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, precision-recall curves (PRC), precision-recall gain curves (PRGC), and F1 scores. Shapley additive interpretation (SHAP) was used to interpret the final model. Results: Among the 424 patients, 77(18.2%) received intraoperative blood transfusion. The Boruta algorithm identified albumin (ALB), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), types of anesthesia, types of fracture, and hemoglobin (Hb) as key feature variables for predicting intraoperative blood transfusion risk. In model evaluation, the SVM model outperforms the other three models across multiple metrics, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), recall, recall gain, accuracy, precision, F1 score, and the area under the precision-recall curve (PRC-AUC). The SVM model, interpreted and visualized based on SHAP values, effectively predicted intraoperative blood transfusion risk in patients with hip fracture. A visual online application was developed based on the SVM model (https://pbo-nomogram.shinyapps.io/blood/). Conclusion: Preoperative low ALB and Hb levels, prolonged APTT, general anesthesia, and intertrochanteric fractures are risk factors for intraoperative blood transfusion in hip fracture patients. The risk prediction model for intraoperative blood transfusion constructed based on the SVM algorithm has optimal performance, which provides new ideas and methods for the clinical early identification of hip fracture patients with high transfusion risk and the implementation of targeted interventions.

Background The global prevalence of obesity is on the rise and is closely associated with various chronic non-communicable diseases such as cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. There is a relative lack of long-term dynamic studies on compound obesity among occupational populations. Objective To explore the changing trends of compound obesity among different occupational groups aged 18–59 years in nine provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) of China from 1993 to 2018, and to provide a scientific basis for formulating targeted weight management strategies for occupational populations. Methods A total of 34519 employed adults aged 18–59 years from nine waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey in1993, 1997, 2000, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2011, 2015, and 2018 were included. Obesity types were determined according to the Chinese Adult Weight Management Guidelines. The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC) of compound obesity rates. Results From 1993 to 2018, the age-standardized compound obesity rate among the occupational population aged 18–59 years showed an upward trend (AAPC=6.24%, 95%CI: 5.09%, 7.41%, P<0.05). The AAPCs (95%CI) for age-standardized compound obesity rates among agricultural workers, blue-collar workers, other occupational groups, service workers, and white-collar workers were 9.55% (7.51%, 11.64%), 6.18% (4.70%, 7.69%), 5.53% (2.27%, 8.90%), 4.07% (2.40%, 5.77%), and 3.89% (2.16%, 5.65%), respectively, with statistically significant differences (P<0.05). Among males, the AAPCs (95%CI) for age-standardized compound obesity rates among agricultural workers, blue-collar workers, other occupational groups, service workers, and white-collar workers were 11.52% (7.71%, 15.47%), 7.28% (6.18%, 8.40%), 5.92% (2.28%, 9.69%), 5.56% (2.11%, 9.12%), and 4.22% (2.33%, 6.15%), respectively, with statistically significant differences (P<0.05). Among females, the AAPCs (95%CI) for age-standardized compound obesity rates among agricultural workers, blue-collar workers, and white-collar workers were 7.45% (6.22%, 8.69%), 3.72% (0.84%, 6.67%), and 2.41% (0.17%, 4.70%), respectively, with statistically significant differences (P<0.05). A turning point was observed in the compound obesity rate among female white-collar workers in 2006, with an APC (95%CI) of 9.69% (5.24%, 14.33%) from 2006 to 2008, showing a statistically significant difference (P<0.05), while no significant trend was found from 1993 to 2006 (P>0.05). No significant trends were observed in the age-standardized compound obesity rates among females in other occupational groups and service workers (P>0.05). Conclusion The compound obesity rate among China's occupational population is increasing rapidly, with the growth rate among agricultural workers being particularly prominent. In 2018, male white-collar workers and female agricultural workers exhibit relatively high compound obesity rates, warranting focused attention. Although the overall growth rate among service workers is slower, the expanding workforce in this sector indicates that obesity remains a serious issue. Targeted occupational health and weight management interventions are needed in the future.

Background With rising obesity rates and earlier hypertension onset among occupational populations, there is an urgent need to elucidate the long-term cardiovascular impacts of dynamic body weight patterns. Current evidence lacks trajectory modeling studies examining occupation-specific prevention strategies. Objective To investigate the association between long-term body mass index (BMI) trajectories and incident hypertension risk in Chinese working adults, and to examine occupation-specific heterogeneity in this relationship. Methods A dynamic sub-cohort of 4 413 occupational participants was constructed from ten survey waves (1991–2018) of the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS). Eligible individuals had valid key BMI records at three or more independent follow-ups before the outcome event; the individual baseline was set as the year of their first participation in the survey. Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) was used to identify BMI change patterns. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for hypertension incidence across trajectory groups, with stratified analysis by occupational categories. Results Among 4413 occupational participants, 1441 incident hypertension cases were reported during the follow-up window. Three long-term BMI trajectories were identified: low-stable, moderate-slowly rising, and high-rising. In Model 3 with all selected confounders adjusted, compared with the low-stable group, the moderate-slowly rising group showed a significantly higher risk of incident hypertension (HR=1.28, 95%CI: 1.12, 1.45; P < 0.001), as did the high-increasing group (HR=1.80, 95%CI: 1.45, 2.23; P < 0.001). The stratified analyses revealed occupational differences in the association. Among agricultural workers, the moderate-slowly rising group (HR=1.35, 95%CI: 1.15, 1.57) and the high-rising group (HR=2.00, 95%CI: 1.50, 2.66) both exhibited significantly increased risks of hypertension (P<0.001). Conversely, among white-collar workers, an increased risk of hypertension was observed only in the high-rising group (HR=1.97, 95%CI: 1.23, 3.17; P<0.05). Conclusion Rapid BMI escalation constitutes a significant risk factor for incident hypertension in occupational populations. Targeted long-term weight monitoring and tailored interventions are recommended for high-risk occupations.

BACKGROUND:Osteosarcoma has a complex pathogenesis and a poor prognosis.While advancements in medical technology have led to some improvements in the 5-year survival rate,substantial progress in its treatment has not yet been achieved. OBJECTIVE:To screen key molecular markers in osteosarcoma,analyze their relationship with osteosarcoma treatment drugs,and explore the potential disease mechanisms of osteosarcoma at the molecular level. METHODS:GSE99671 and GSE284259(miRNA)datasets were obtained from the Gene Expression Omnibus database.Differential gene expression analysis and Weighted Gene Co-expression Network Analysis(WGCNA)on GSE99671 were performed.Functional enrichment analysis was conducted using Gene Ontology and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes separately for the differentially expressed genes and the module genes with the highest positive correlation to the disease.The intersection of these module genes and differentially expressed genes was taken as key genes.A Protein-Protein Interaction network was constructed,and correlation analysis on the key genes was performed using CytoScape software,and hub genes were identified.Hub genes were externally validated using the GSE28425 dataset and text validation was conducted.The drug sensitivity of hub genes was analyzed using the CellMiner database,with a threshold of absolute value of correlation coefficient|R|>0.3 and P<0.05. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)Differential gene expression analysis identified 529 differentially expressed genes,comprising 177 upregulated and 352 downregulated genes.WGCNA analysis yielded a total of 592 genes with the highest correlation to osteosarcoma.(2)Gene Ontology enrichment results indicated that the development of osteosarcoma may be associated with extracellular matrix,bone cell differentiation and development,human immune regulation,and collagen synthesis and degradation.Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes enrichment results showed the involvement of pathways such as PI3K-Akt signaling pathway,focal adhesion signaling pathway,and immune response in the onset of osteosarcoma.(3)The intersection analysis revealed a total of 59 key genes.Through Protein-Protein Interaction network analysis,8 hub genes were selected,which were LUM,PLOD1,PLOD2,MMP14,COL11A1,THBS2,LEPRE1,and TGFB1,all of which were upregulated.(4)External validation revealed significantly downregulated miRNAs that regulate the hub genes,with hsa-miR-144-3p and hsa-miR-150-5p showing the most significant downregulation.Text validation results demonstrated that the expression of hub genes was consistent with previous research.(5)Drug sensitivity analysis indicated a negative correlation between the activity of methotrexate,6-mercaptopurine,and pazopanib with the mRNA expression of PLOD1,PLOD2,and MMP14.Moreover,zoledronic acid and lapatinib showed a positive correlation with the mRNA expression of PLOD1,LUM,MMP14,PLOD2,and TGFB1.This suggests that zoledronic acid and lapatinib may be potential therapeutic drugs for osteosarcoma,but further validation is required through additional basic experiments and clinical studies.

BACKGROUND:In recent years,with the rapid development of biomedicine,the study of brain aging and exosomes has attracted more and more attention,but there is no bibliometrics analysis in this field. OBJECTIVE:To objectively analyze domestic and foreign literature on brain aging and exosomes in the past 15 years,to summarize the research status,hot spots,and development trends in this field. METHODS:Using the core database of Web of Science as a search platform,we downloaded the literature on brain aging and exosomes published from the establishment of the database to December 28,2022,and analyzed the data from the aspects of country or region,institution,author,keywords,and co-cited literature using CiteSpace 6.1.R6 visualization software. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:A total of 1 045 research articles were included,and the number of publications on brain aging and exosomes research both domestically and internationally was showing an increasing trend year by year.The United States ranked first with 429 papers,and China ranked second with 277 papers.Louisiana State University ranked first with 16 articles.Professor Lukiw Walter J from Louisiana State University in the United States was the author with the highest number of publications,and Professor Bartel DP from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology was the author with the most citations.The most prolific Journal was the International Journal of Molecular Sciences.Alzheimer's disease,microRNA,gene expression,extracellular vesicles,exosomes,oxidative stress,and biomarkers are the most relevant terms.According to the research on hot topics,biomarkers have become a new research hotspot.The above results indicate that the research on brain aging and exosomes has gradually increased in the past 15 years.The research direction has gradually shifted from the initial exploration of the expression of miRNAs in central nervous system diseases related to brain aging to the search for biomarkers that can identify and diagnose neurodegenerative diseases.The study of exocrine miRNAs to protect central nervous system from damage has emerged as promising therapeutic strategy.

Background Unhealthy lifestyle behaviors may be associated with an increased risk of cardiometabolic risk factor aggregation (CMRF≥ 2), and few studies have focused on the correlation between the two in occupational populations. Objective To investigate the current status of CMRF≥2 and the compliance of healthy lifestyle in male occupational personnel, explore the effect of lifestyle on cardiometabolic risk, and provide reference for formulating healthy behavior promotion strategies and reducing cardiometabolic risk in occupational populations. Methods The study subjects were selected from male workers who completed occupational health examinations at an occupational disease prevention and control hospital in Shanxi Province from May to December 2023, and 15125 study subjects aged 18−60 years were finally included according to pre-determined inclusion and exclusion criteria. All subjects received a series of assessments including questionnaires (basic information, lifestyle habits, and occupational factors), physical examination, laboratory tests, and six cardiometabolic risk factors (central obesity, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, hypertriglyceridemia, low-density lipoprotein cholesterolemia, and hyperuricemia). A healthy lifestyle score was calculated based on six behavioral factors (smoking, drinking, physical activity, diet, sleep, sedentary behavior) and 1 point for one positive healthy behavior. The enrolled workers were then divided into three groups according to their total scores: 0−1 points (poor group), 2−3 points (moderate group), and 4−6 points (good group). Logistic regression models were used to analyze the statistical associations between lifestyle and CMRF≥2. Results The median age of the 15125 male study participants was 40 years, and the positive rate of CMRF≥2 was 53.5%. Adherence to moderate alcohol consumption was the most compliant healthy behavior (79.4%), followed by current non-smoking (41.7%), while adherence to adequate sedentary behavior (23.6%) and healthy eating (21.1%) were relatively low, and only 17.4% were able to adhere to four or more healthy lifestyle behaviors. After adjusting for confounders, when compared with the poor group high lifestyle score was found to be a protective factor for CMRF≥2 (moderate group: OR=0.70, 95%CI: 0.63, 0.77; good group: OR=0.66, 95%CI: 0.58, 0.75). In stratified analyses across different job types (coal miners, auxiliary workers, ground workers, and others), occupational stress (with or without), shift patterns (day shift, night shift, or rotating shift), dust exposure (with or without), and noise exposure (with or without), individuals with higher lifestyle scores exhibited a consistently lower risk of CMRF≥2. There was an interaction between shift pattern and lifestyle on CMRF≥2 (P_interaction<0.05). Conclusion This occupational group has a high positive rate of CMRF≥2 and a high prevalence of poor lifestyles with low adherence to some healthy behaviors. High healthy lifestyle scores are associated with a lower risk of aggregation of cardiometabolic risk factors, which may be reduced through lifestyle interventions.