Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

Objective: To investigate the factors influencing intraoperative blood transfusion in patients with hip fractures and to develop a machine learning (ML) model for predicting this risk. Methods: A total of 424 patients with hip fractures who underwent surgical treatment between November 2022 and March 2025 in our hospital were selected. Key feature variables of intraoperative blood transfusion risk were identified using the Boruta algorithm. Four different ML algorithms—support vector machine (SVM), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), mixed discriminant analysis (MDA), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)—were used to develop predictive models for intraoperative blood transfusion risk. The predictive performance of the four ML models were evaluated using accuracy, precision, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, precision-recall curves (PRC), precision-recall gain curves (PRGC), and F1 scores. Shapley additive interpretation (SHAP) was used to interpret the final model. Results: Among the 424 patients, 77(18.2%) received intraoperative blood transfusion. The Boruta algorithm identified albumin (ALB), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), types of anesthesia, types of fracture, and hemoglobin (Hb) as key feature variables for predicting intraoperative blood transfusion risk. In model evaluation, the SVM model outperforms the other three models across multiple metrics, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), recall, recall gain, accuracy, precision, F1 score, and the area under the precision-recall curve (PRC-AUC). The SVM model, interpreted and visualized based on SHAP values, effectively predicted intraoperative blood transfusion risk in patients with hip fracture. A visual online application was developed based on the SVM model (https://pbo-nomogram.shinyapps.io/blood/). Conclusion: Preoperative low ALB and Hb levels, prolonged APTT, general anesthesia, and intertrochanteric fractures are risk factors for intraoperative blood transfusion in hip fracture patients. The risk prediction model for intraoperative blood transfusion constructed based on the SVM algorithm has optimal performance, which provides new ideas and methods for the clinical early identification of hip fracture patients with high transfusion risk and the implementation of targeted interventions.

ObjectiveTo address the limitations of the current quality standard for Polygalae Radix（PR）， which relies on a single component for quality assessment and struggles to holistically control its intrinsic quality， by constructing a comprehensive quality evaluation system integrating "macro-characterization of chemical profile， synchronous quantification of multiple index components， and quantitative analysis of multi-components by single marker（QAMS） for key component groups". This study aims to facilitate the scientific revision of the quality standard for PR. MethodsHigh performance liquid chromatography（HPLC） characteristic chromatograms were established for 11 batches of PR medicinal materials（YZ）， 10 batches of PR decoction pieces（YP）， and 10 batches of licorice-processed PR decoction pieces（ZYZ）， followed by similarity evaluation and identification of common peaks. HPLC-QAMS was developed for xanthones（sibiricaxanthone B， polygalaxanthone Ⅺ， polygalaxanthone Ⅲ） in the characteristic chromatograms. Simultaneously， the external standard method（ESM） was used to determine the contents of the corresponding xanthones and 3，6'-disinapoyl sucrose in YZ， YP， and ZYZ， followed by multivariate statistical analysis and Spearman correlation analysis. ResultsThe similarity between the characteristic chromatograms of 31 batches of PR samples and the reference chromatogram was>0.9. A total of 13 common peaks were identified， and 10 of these peaks were characterized through reference standard comparison. The successfully constructed QAMS method showed that the relative correction factors（RCFs） of sibiricaxanthone B and polygalaxanthone Ⅺ to polygalaxanthone Ⅲ were 0.76 and 0.88， and their relative retention times（RRTs） were 0.85 and 0.97， respectively. The results calculated by the QAMS method showed no significant difference from those obtained by the ESM. According to the limit standard for polygalaxanthone Ⅲ in the 2020 edition of the Pharmacopoeia of the People's Republic of China（hereinafter referred to as the Chinese Pharmacopoeia）， the pass rate of 31 batches of samples was only 19.35%. Multivariate statistical analysis indicated certain compositional differences between different batches of YZ and YP， as well as between YP and ZYZ， with 3，6'-disinapoyl sucrose identified as the main differentiating component. Furthermore， correlation analysis revealed that the content of polygalaxanthone Ⅲ was positively correlated with the contents of sibiricaxanthone B and polygalaxanthone Ⅺ， but showed no association with the content of 3，6'-disinapoyl sucrose. ConclusionIt is recommended that the content limit for polygalaxanthone Ⅲ in YZ，YP and ZYZ be revised to not less than 0.07%， or the total content of polygalaxanthone Ⅲ， sibiricaxanthone B and polygalaxanthone Ⅺ be not less than 0.18%. The newly established triple quality control model of "holistic control via characteristic chromatograms， precise quantification of oligosaccharide esters， and efficient detection of xanthones by QAMS" provides a systematic and precise solution for quality evaluation of PR and similar Chinese herbal medicines.

OBJECTIVE To investigate the effects and potential mechanism of Qiangxin decoction on mitochondrion of rats with chronic heart failure （CHF）. METHODS The CHF model was established by ligating the left anterior descending branch of the coronary artery. Modeled rats were divided into model group， Qiangxin decoction low-dose and high-dose groups （12.25， 24.50 g/kg， calculated by crude drug）， and chemical medicine group （Sacubitril valsartan sodium tablets， 10.42 mg/kg）， with 10 rats in each group； control group was set up without treatment. Each group of rats was orally administered with the corresponding medication or normal saline twice a day for 28 consecutive days. After the last medication， the contents of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide （NT-proBNP） and adenosine triphosphate （ATP） in serum and phosphatidic acid （PA） and cardiolipin （CL） in myocardial tissue were all detected； the pathological damage and collagen fibrosis of rat myocardial tissue were observed； the apoptosis of myocardial cells was determined； the ultrastructure of myocardial tissue was observed； the protein expressions of mitofusin 1 （Mfn1）， Mfn2， optic atrophy protein 1 （OPA1） and dynamin-related protein 1 （Drp1） were all detected in myocardial tissue. RESULTS Compared with control group，the serum content of NT-proBNP， apoptotic rate of myocardial cells， and relative expressions of S-OPA1 and Drp1 proteins were all increased significantly； serum content of ATP，contents of PA and CL， and relative expressions of Mfn1， Mfn2 and L-OPA1 proteins were all significantly reduced （P＜0.05）. There were abnormal membrane tissue structure in various layers of myocardial tissue， degeneration and necrosis of myocardial cells， and severe fibrosis； the mitochondria were swollen， with reduced or absent cristae， and uneven matrix density. After intervention with Qiangxin decoction， the levels of the aforementioned quantitative indicators in serum and myocardial tissue of rats （excluding CL content in the Qiangxin decoction low- dose group） were significantly reversed （P＜0.05）； the pathological damage of myocardial tissue had significantly improved， fibrosis had significantly reduced， mitochondrial morphology tended to be normal， cristae had increased， and matrix density was uniform. CONCLUSIONS Qiangxin decoction can regulate myocardial mitochondrial function and structural integrity of CHF rats， thereby improving myocardial energy metabolism and antagonizing myocardial fibrosis， the mechanism of which may be associated with activating PA/Mfn/CL signaling pathway.

OBJECTIVE To investigate the effects and potential mechanism of Qiangxin decoction on mitochondrion of rats with chronic heart failure （CHF）. METHODS The CHF model was established by ligating the left anterior descending branch of the coronary artery. Modeled rats were divided into model group， Qiangxin decoction low-dose and high-dose groups （12.25， 24.50 g/kg， calculated by crude drug）， and chemical medicine group （Sacubitril valsartan sodium tablets， 10.42 mg/kg）， with 10 rats in each group； control group was set up without treatment. Each group of rats was orally administered with the corresponding medication or normal saline twice a day for 28 consecutive days. After the last medication， the contents of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide （NT-proBNP） and adenosine triphosphate （ATP） in serum and phosphatidic acid （PA） and cardiolipin （CL） in myocardial tissue were all detected； the pathological damage and collagen fibrosis of rat myocardial tissue were observed； the apoptosis of myocardial cells was determined； the ultrastructure of myocardial tissue was observed； the protein expressions of mitofusin 1 （Mfn1）， Mfn2， optic atrophy protein 1 （OPA1） and dynamin-related protein 1 （Drp1） were all detected in myocardial tissue. RESULTS Compared with control group，the serum content of NT-proBNP， apoptotic rate of myocardial cells， and relative expressions of S-OPA1 and Drp1 proteins were all increased significantly； serum content of ATP，contents of PA and CL， and relative expressions of Mfn1， Mfn2 and L-OPA1 proteins were all significantly reduced （P＜0.05）. There were abnormal membrane tissue structure in various layers of myocardial tissue， degeneration and necrosis of myocardial cells， and severe fibrosis； the mitochondria were swollen， with reduced or absent cristae， and uneven matrix density. After intervention with Qiangxin decoction， the levels of the aforementioned quantitative indicators in serum and myocardial tissue of rats （excluding CL content in the Qiangxin decoction low- dose group） were significantly reversed （P＜0.05）； the pathological damage of myocardial tissue had significantly improved， fibrosis had significantly reduced， mitochondrial morphology tended to be normal， cristae had increased， and matrix density was uniform. CONCLUSIONS Qiangxin decoction can regulate myocardial mitochondrial function and structural integrity of CHF rats， thereby improving myocardial energy metabolism and antagonizing myocardial fibrosis， the mechanism of which may be associated with activating PA/Mfn/CL signaling pathway.

ObjectiveTo explore the central neuroregulation mechanism of heat-sensitive moxibustion for knee osteoarthritis on pain relief. MethodsThirty patients who did not have experience of Deqi （得气） during heat-sensitive moxibustion treatment were assigned to the "non-Deqi group"， while another 30 patients who had experience of Deqi were assigned to the "Deqi group". Both groups received moxibustion at the left Heding （EX-LE2） acupoint. In the Deqi group， after the patients experienced sensation of Deqi at the acupoint， moxibustion was applied at approximately 3 cm from the skin for 10 minutes； in the non-Deqi group， moxibustion was also applied at approximately 3 cm from the skin for 10 minutes. Both groups received treatment once daily for 10 consecutive days. Knee joint pain was assessed before and after treatment using the visual analog scale （VAS）. Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging （rs-fMRI） scans were performed on all participants before the first treatment session and after the final session on the 10th day. The fractional amplitude of low-frequency fluctuations （fALFF） maps before and after treatment were processed using the SPM12 module by MATLAB. ResultsAfter treatment， VAS scores in both groups were significantly lower than before treatment （P＜0.05 or P＜0.01）， with the Deqi group showing significantly lower VAS scores than the non-Deqi group （P＜0.01）. Compared to before treatment， the Deqi group exhibited significant activation in the prefrontal cortex （t = 6.28）， white matter （t = 6.36）， and left temporal lobe （t = 9.33）， while significant inhibition was observed in the occipital lobe （t = -9.86） and right cerebrum （t = -4.54， P＜0.01）； in the non-Deqi group， significant changes after treatment were observed in the left occipital lobe （t = -6.42）， left medial frontal gyrus （t = -4.35）， left middle frontal gyrus （t = -4.74）， right superior frontal gyrus （t = -4.82）， right superior temporal gyrus （t = -6.61）， and right cerebellar posterior lobe （t = -8.64）， all of which were in inhibited states （P＜0.01）. Compared to the non-Deqi group， the Deqi group exhibited significant activation after treatment in the external nucleus （t = 5.77）， white matter （t = 3.58）， right cerebrum （t = 5.84）， left cerebellum （t = 5.35）， and left cerebrum （t = 4.32）， while significant inhibition was observed in the prefrontal cortex （t = -4.16）， occipital lobe （t = -4.87）， and precentral gyrus （t = -4.46， P＜0.01）. ConclusionsHeat-sensitive moxibustion provides better analgesic effects for knee osteoarthritis under state of Deqi. Its central neuroregulation mechanism may be related to the involvement of the frontal lobe， temporal lobe， occipital lobe， external nucleus， white matter， right cerebrum， left cerebellum， left cerebrum， and precentral gyrus in modulating pain signals.

ObjectiveTo systematically organize the relevant research on the treatment of uterine fibroids with Xiaojie'an capsules through clinical evidence evaluation and comprehensive value analysis in the "6+1" dimension，highlighting the efficacy and characteristics of Xiaojie'an capsules. MethodsBased on evidence-based medicine，epidemiology，pharmacoeconomics，health technology assessment （HTA）， and other methodologies，this study adopted qualitative and quantitative evaluation methods. Through a questionnaire survey，official website data information，published literature， and secondary evaluation of real world data，a total of "6+1" dimensions were used to build an evaluation system for the safety，effectiveness，economy，innovation，suitability，accessibility of Chinese patent medicines， and characteristics of traditional Chinese medicines. Results① Safety：From January 2009 to March 2023，the National Adverse Drug Reaction Monitoring Center reported 159 cases （248 cases） of general adverse reactions and four cases of serious adverse reactions to Xiaojie'an capsules，all of which were classified as general adverse reactions after expert judgment. Through literature search，a total of 6 865 patients were treated with Xiaojie'an capsules，of which 26 articles reported adverse reactions to Xiaojie'an capsules，resulting in a total of 244 adverse reactions. The clinical manifestations of adverse reactions to Xiaojie'an capsules include nausea，vomiting，stomach discomfort，diarrhea，rash，itching，dizziness，headache，insomnia，etc. The prognosis was good， and the drug surveillance system was sound. Based on the evaluation of known risks and sufficient evidence，in terms of known risk assessment， according to the monitoring results of the spontaneous reporting system （SRS）， there were four cases of serious adverse reactions to Xiaojie'an capsules. After expert discussion， the four cases of serious adverse reactions were finally judged as general adverse reactions， and the known risks were considered to be small in combination with the known risk evaluation criteria. According to the types of studies carried out on Xiaojie'an capsules （randomized controlled trial and its systematic review， SRS data analysis， real world human experience studies， and non-clinical safety studies） and the evaluation criteria of sufficient evidence， it was considered that Xiaojie'an capsules had sufficient evidence. The safety evidence of this variety was sufficient， and the result was confirmed. ② Effectiveness： Meta-analysis results showed that the combination of Xiaojie'an capsules and Mifepristone tablets had better clinical efficacy compared to Mifepristone tablets alone and had a better effect in reducing the maximum uterine fibroid volume. Due to limitations and imprecision caused by downgrading factors，the quality of evidence was evaluated as Grade C. Based on comprehensive effectiveness evidence and value evaluation，the effectiveness evidence of this variety was relatively sufficient， and the results were clear ③ Economy：The economic evaluation results showed that treating one more patient with uterine fibroid required an additional cost of 5 438.57 yuan by using the combination of Xiaojie'an capsules and Mifepristone tablets，which was lower than the patient's willingness to pay （36 883 yuan according to 2022 National Bureau of Statistics data）. This suggested that compared with using Mifepristone tablets alone，the combination of Xiaojie'an capsules and Mifepristone tablets had a certain economy. The sensitivity analysis results were relatively robust，indicating that this variety had good economy ④ Innovation：Currently，most traditional Chinese medicine treatments for uterine fibroids advocate the method of attacking evil，which can easily harm the body. However，Xiaojie'an capsules not only soften and disperse nodules but also balance supporting the body and supplementing deficiency. The comprehensive evaluation showed sufficient evidence of the innovation of this variety，and the results were confirmed. ⑤ Suitability： The service information of Chinese patent medicines derived from the drug was complete，and the questionnaire survey results showed that the drug was suitable for clinicians，nurses，pharmacists， and patients in multiple dimensions such as individual compliance，system， and management. The comprehensive evaluation of the suitability of the product had sufficient evidence and clear results. ⑥ Accessibility：The daily cost of Xiaojie'an capsules was 16.97 yuan，and the treatment cost was 407.16 yuan. It was affordable for urban residents and rural residents and was available for sale in 23 provinces， cities，municipalities，and autonomous regions across the country. The medicinal resources were abundant and sustainably supplied，and there was sufficient evidence of accessibility with clear results. ⑦ Characteristics of traditional Chinese medicine：Xiaojie'an capsules were derived from the classic Dai medicine formula of Dr. CHEN Benshan，a renowned Dai doctor，and they have been clinically used for over 20 years. Dai medicine originated from Xishuangbanna，Yunnan province，with the core theory of "four pagodas and five elements". The comprehensive evaluation showed that this variety exhibited significant characteristics of traditional Chinese medicine. ⑧ Comprehensive evaluation of clinical value：Based on the "6+1" dimensions mentioned above，combined with the multi-criteria decision analysis （MCDA） model and calculations using CSC v2.0 software，the results showed that there was sufficient evidence for the clinical value of Xiaojie'an capsules，and the results were clear. ConclusionThe comprehensive evaluation of Xiaojie'an capsules has sufficient evidence of safety and innovation，and the results are confirmed. The evidence of effectiveness，suitability，and accessibility is relatively sufficient，with clear results. The economy is good，and the characteristics of traditional Chinese medicine are prominent. The comprehensive evaluation of clinical value believes that there is sufficient evidence of the clinical value of Xiaojie'an capsules，and the results are clear. In the future，it is recommended to focus on clinical value， conduct high-quality and effective research that is in line with the characteristics of traditional Chinese medicine， and improve acute toxicity testing to provide a scientific and objective basis for clinical efficacy and safety research.

Background: Obesity and chronic pain are related in both directions, according to earlier observational research.This research aimed to analyze the causal association between obesity and chronic pain at the genetic level, as well as to assess whether common factors mediate this relationship. Methods: This study used bidirectional two sample Mendelian randomization (MR) technique to analyze the association between obesity and chronic pain. Obesity's summary genome-wide association data were obtained from European ancestry groups, as measured by body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio, waist circumference (WC), and hip circumference (HC), genome-wide association study data for chronic pain also came from the UK population, including chronic pain at three different sites (back, hip, and headache), chronic widespread pain (CWP), and multisite chronic pain (MCP). Secondly, a two-step MR and multivariate MR investigation was performed to evaluate the mediating effects of several proposed confounders. Results: The authors discovered a link between chronic pain and obesity. More specifically, a sensitivity analysis was done to confirm the associations between greater BMI, WC, and HC with an increased risk of CWP and MCP.Importantly, the intermediate MR results suggest that education levels and smoking initiation may mediate the causal relationship between BMI on CWP, with a mediation effect of 23.08% and 15.38%, respectively. Conclusions The authors’ findings demonstrate that the importance of education and smoking in understanding chronic pain’s pathogenesis, which is important for the primary prevention and prognosis of chronic pain.

Background: Obesity and chronic pain are related in both directions, according to earlier observational research.This research aimed to analyze the causal association between obesity and chronic pain at the genetic level, as well as to assess whether common factors mediate this relationship. Methods: This study used bidirectional two sample Mendelian randomization (MR) technique to analyze the association between obesity and chronic pain. Obesity's summary genome-wide association data were obtained from European ancestry groups, as measured by body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio, waist circumference (WC), and hip circumference (HC), genome-wide association study data for chronic pain also came from the UK population, including chronic pain at three different sites (back, hip, and headache), chronic widespread pain (CWP), and multisite chronic pain (MCP). Secondly, a two-step MR and multivariate MR investigation was performed to evaluate the mediating effects of several proposed confounders. Results: The authors discovered a link between chronic pain and obesity. More specifically, a sensitivity analysis was done to confirm the associations between greater BMI, WC, and HC with an increased risk of CWP and MCP.Importantly, the intermediate MR results suggest that education levels and smoking initiation may mediate the causal relationship between BMI on CWP, with a mediation effect of 23.08% and 15.38%, respectively. Conclusions The authors’ findings demonstrate that the importance of education and smoking in understanding chronic pain’s pathogenesis, which is important for the primary prevention and prognosis of chronic pain.

ObjectiveTo understand the epidemiological distribution and gene evolutionary variation of influenza A (H3N2) viruses in Fengxian District, Shanghai, in the surveillance year of 2023, and to provide a reference basis for influenza prevention and control. MethodsThe prevalence of influenza virus in Fengxian District in the 2023 influenza surveillance year (April 2023‒March 2024) was analyzed. The hemagglutinin (HA) gene, neuraminidase (NA) gene, and amino acid sequences of 75 strains of H3N2 influenza viruses were compared with the vaccine reference strain for similarity matching and phylogenetic evolutionary analysis, in addition to an analysis of gene characterization and variation. ResultsIn Fengxian District, there was a mixed epidemic of H3N2 and H1N1 in the spring of 2023, with H3N2 being the predominant subtype in the second half of the year, and Victoria B becoming the predominant subtype in the spring of 2024. A total of 75 influenza strains of H3N2 with HA and NA genes were distributed in the 3C.2a1b.2a.2a.2a.3a.1 and B.4 branches, with overall similarity to the reference strain of the 2024 vaccine higher than that of the reference strain of the 2022 and 2023 vaccine. Compared with the 2023 vaccine reference strain, three antigenic sites and one receptor binding site were changed in HA, with three glycosylation sites reduced and two glycosylation sites added; where as in NA seven antigenic sites and the 222nd resistance site changed with two glycosylation sites reduced. ConclusionThe risk of antigenic variation and drug resistance of H3N2 in this region is high, and it is necessary to strengthen the publicity and education on the 2024 influenza vaccine and long-term monitoring of influenza virus prevalence and variation levels.