Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

ObjectiveTo investigate the present situation of input, output, outcome and impact of all registered community-based rehabilitation stations in Inner Mongolia in China, and analyze how the input predict the output, outcome and impact. MethodsFrom March 1st to April 30th, 2025, a questionnaire survey was conducted on all registered community-based rehabilitation stations in Inner Mongolia, covering four dimensions: input, output, outcome and impact. A total of 1 365 questionnaires were distributed. The input included four items: laws and policies, human resources, equipment and facilities, and rehabilitation information management. The output included two items: technical paths and benefits/effectiveness. The outcome included three items: coverage rates, rehabilitation interventions and functional results. The impact included two items: health and sustainability. Each item contained several questions, all of which were described in a positive way. Each question was scored from one to five. A lower score indicated that the situation of the community-based rehabilitation station was more in line with the content described in the question. Regression analysis was performed using the total score of each item of input dimension as independent variables, and the total scores of the output, outcome and impact dimensions as dependent variables. ResultsA total of 1 262 valid questionnaires were collected. The mean values of input, output, outcome and impact of community-based rehabilitation stations were 1.827 to 1.904, with coefficient of variation of 45.892% to 49.239%. The regression analysis showed that, rehabilitation information management, human resources, and laws and policies significantly predicted the output dimension (R² = 0.910, P < 0.001). Meanwhile, all four items in the input dimension predicted both the outcome (R² = 0.850, P < 0.001) and impact dimensions (R² = 0.833, P < 0.001). ConclusionInput, output, outcome and impact of the community-based rehabilitation stations in Inner Mongolia were generally in line with the content of the questions, although some imbalances were observed. Additionally, the input of community-based rehabilitation stations could significantly predict their output, outcome and impact.

ObjectiveTo provide a reference for the rational clinical use of cold Chinese medicines by sorting and analyzing their properties， flavors， meridian tropism， primary therapeutic indications， methods of administration， dosages， and precautions as recorded in the 2020 edition of Pharmacopoeia of the People's Republic of China （Chinese Pharmacopoeia）. MethodsCold Chinese medicines for internal and external use included in the 2020 edition of Chinese Pharmacopoeia were entered one by one， and their efficacy， properties， flavors， meridian tropism， methods of administration， dosages， and usage precautions were statistically classified and summarized to guide clinical medication use. ResultsA total of 259 cold Chinese medicines for internal use were included and categorized into 18 efficacy groups， mainly comprising heat-clearing drugs， water-excreting and dampness-draining drugs， and phlegm-resolving， cough- and asthma-relieving drugs. Their predominant flavors were bitter， sweet， and pungent， and they primarily entered the liver， lung， and stomach meridians. The main methods of administration included decocting first， grinding into powder for oral use， or preparing into pills or powders， with most dosages ranging from 9 to 15 g. A total of 83 cold Chinese medicines for external use were included， involving 16 efficacy categories. Their main flavors were bitter， sweet， and pungent， primarily entering the liver， lung， and large intestine meridians. The main external application methods were grinding into powder for topical use or preparing decoctions for fumigation and washing， with most dosages ranging from 9 to 15 g. Whether for internal or external use， cold Chinese medicines should be used with caution or contraindicated in pregnant women. ConclusionThe cold Chinese medicines included in the 2020 edition of the Chinese Pharmacopoeia are mainly suitable for patients with carbuncles， swellings， and coughs. However， in clinical practice， it is necessary to strictly follow the principles of syndrome differentiation and treatment， pay attention to administration methods and dosages， and use cold medicines rationally and effectively to improve clinical efficacy.

Abnormal activation of the Janus kinase/signal transducer and activator of transcription （JAK/STAT） signaling pathway is involved in the pathogenesis of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma （DLBCL）. In recent years， inhibitors targeting JAK2 and STAT3 have emerged as promising therapeutic candidates in DLBCL. This review summarizes the efficacy and safety profiles of JAK2 inhibitors （e.g.， ruxolitinib） and STAT3 inhibitors （direct small-molecule inhibitors， the antisense oligonucleotide， and proteolysis targeting chimeras， etc.） in preclinical models and clinical trials. Accumulating evidence indicates that JAK2 and STAT3 inhibitors exhibit antitumor activity and are generally well tolerated in a subset of DLBCL patients. Meanwhile， the development of novel drug delivery systems has significantly enhanced the stability， bioavailability， and targeting ability of the compounds. Furthermore， JAK2 and STAT3 inhibitors may exhibit synergistic effects when combined with other therapy strategies （such as combinations with B-cell receptor signaling pathway inhibitors， immunomodulators， or other targeted drugs）. However， current clinical applications are still in their early stages. Future research should concentrate on precision treatment strategies based on the genetic subtyping of DLBCL， and further refine the delivery systems for inhibitors as well as combination drug regimens to improve clinical outcomes.

Objective: To investigate the factors influencing intraoperative blood transfusion in patients with hip fractures and to develop a machine learning (ML) model for predicting this risk. Methods: A total of 424 patients with hip fractures who underwent surgical treatment between November 2022 and March 2025 in our hospital were selected. Key feature variables of intraoperative blood transfusion risk were identified using the Boruta algorithm. Four different ML algorithms—support vector machine (SVM), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), mixed discriminant analysis (MDA), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)—were used to develop predictive models for intraoperative blood transfusion risk. The predictive performance of the four ML models were evaluated using accuracy, precision, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, precision-recall curves (PRC), precision-recall gain curves (PRGC), and F1 scores. Shapley additive interpretation (SHAP) was used to interpret the final model. Results: Among the 424 patients, 77(18.2%) received intraoperative blood transfusion. The Boruta algorithm identified albumin (ALB), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), types of anesthesia, types of fracture, and hemoglobin (Hb) as key feature variables for predicting intraoperative blood transfusion risk. In model evaluation, the SVM model outperforms the other three models across multiple metrics, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), recall, recall gain, accuracy, precision, F1 score, and the area under the precision-recall curve (PRC-AUC). The SVM model, interpreted and visualized based on SHAP values, effectively predicted intraoperative blood transfusion risk in patients with hip fracture. A visual online application was developed based on the SVM model (https://pbo-nomogram.shinyapps.io/blood/). Conclusion: Preoperative low ALB and Hb levels, prolonged APTT, general anesthesia, and intertrochanteric fractures are risk factors for intraoperative blood transfusion in hip fracture patients. The risk prediction model for intraoperative blood transfusion constructed based on the SVM algorithm has optimal performance, which provides new ideas and methods for the clinical early identification of hip fracture patients with high transfusion risk and the implementation of targeted interventions.

Liumotang comes from the Yuan dynasty's Effective Prescription Handed Down for Generations of Physicians. It is composed of six medicinal materials： Arecae Semen， Aquilariae Lignum Resinatum， Aucklandiae Radix， Linderae Radix， Rhei Radix et Rhizoma， and Aurantii Fructus. It is a classical formula for treating abdominal pain due to Qi stagnation and constipation accompanied by heat. This study systematically collated the records of Liumotang in ancient medical books and modern clinical literature and conducted in-depth analysis and textual research on its formula source， main diseases， composition， dosage， medical books， container capacity， processing， preparation method， usage， drug basis， formula meaning， and other key information， so as to provide a powerful reference for the development and clinical application of compound preparations of the classical formula Liumotang. The results show that Liumotang was first seen in Effective Prescription Handed Down for Generations of Physicians， and many medical books of the past dynasties have imitated this. In terms of drug basis， the dried and mature seeds of the palm plant Areca catechu， resin-containing wood of the Daphneaceae plant Aquilaria sinensis， the dried roots of the Asteraceae plant woody Aucklandia lappa， the dried tuber root of the Lauraceae plant Lindera aggregata， the dried roots and rhizomes of the knotweed plant， R. palmatum， R.tangutikum， and R. officinale， and the dried and unripe fruits of the citrus genus C. aurantium and its cultivated varieties from the family Rutaceae were selected. In terms of dosage， through the textual research on bowls in the Ming and Qing dynasties， combined with the conversion of medicines and bowl capacity in the Qing dynasty， it was estimated that the dosage of each drug in the Yuan dynasty was 10.86 g. In the Ming and Qing dynasties， the dosage of drugs was mostly equal， but the dosage of drugs was somewhat different. In terms of processing， preparation method， and usage， in the medical books of the past dynasties， the processing of drugs has slightly changed， but raw drugs are used in all preparations. The preparation method and usage did not change much during the Yuan， Ming， and Qing dynasties， except for certain differences in dosage. In terms of syndrome， Liumotang was first used to treat abdominal pain due to Qi stagnation and constipation accompanied by heat. Medical books of the past dynasties often omit the symptoms of heat. In modern clinical practice， Liumotang is mainly used in the digestive system and urinary system diseases and is mostly used to treat constipation-predominant irritable bowel syndrome， biliary reflux gastritis， functional constipation， slow transit constipation， and other diseases， with no adverse reactions found yet. The above results provide a reliable scientific basis for the development and clinical treatment of Liumotang compound preparations.

BACKGROUND:Osteosarcoma has a complex pathogenesis and a poor prognosis.While advancements in medical technology have led to some improvements in the 5-year survival rate,substantial progress in its treatment has not yet been achieved. OBJECTIVE:To screen key molecular markers in osteosarcoma,analyze their relationship with osteosarcoma treatment drugs,and explore the potential disease mechanisms of osteosarcoma at the molecular level. METHODS:GSE99671 and GSE284259(miRNA)datasets were obtained from the Gene Expression Omnibus database.Differential gene expression analysis and Weighted Gene Co-expression Network Analysis(WGCNA)on GSE99671 were performed.Functional enrichment analysis was conducted using Gene Ontology and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes separately for the differentially expressed genes and the module genes with the highest positive correlation to the disease.The intersection of these module genes and differentially expressed genes was taken as key genes.A Protein-Protein Interaction network was constructed,and correlation analysis on the key genes was performed using CytoScape software,and hub genes were identified.Hub genes were externally validated using the GSE28425 dataset and text validation was conducted.The drug sensitivity of hub genes was analyzed using the CellMiner database,with a threshold of absolute value of correlation coefficient|R|>0.3 and P<0.05. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)Differential gene expression analysis identified 529 differentially expressed genes,comprising 177 upregulated and 352 downregulated genes.WGCNA analysis yielded a total of 592 genes with the highest correlation to osteosarcoma.(2)Gene Ontology enrichment results indicated that the development of osteosarcoma may be associated with extracellular matrix,bone cell differentiation and development,human immune regulation,and collagen synthesis and degradation.Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes enrichment results showed the involvement of pathways such as PI3K-Akt signaling pathway,focal adhesion signaling pathway,and immune response in the onset of osteosarcoma.(3)The intersection analysis revealed a total of 59 key genes.Through Protein-Protein Interaction network analysis,8 hub genes were selected,which were LUM,PLOD1,PLOD2,MMP14,COL11A1,THBS2,LEPRE1,and TGFB1,all of which were upregulated.(4)External validation revealed significantly downregulated miRNAs that regulate the hub genes,with hsa-miR-144-3p and hsa-miR-150-5p showing the most significant downregulation.Text validation results demonstrated that the expression of hub genes was consistent with previous research.(5)Drug sensitivity analysis indicated a negative correlation between the activity of methotrexate,6-mercaptopurine,and pazopanib with the mRNA expression of PLOD1,PLOD2,and MMP14.Moreover,zoledronic acid and lapatinib showed a positive correlation with the mRNA expression of PLOD1,LUM,MMP14,PLOD2,and TGFB1.This suggests that zoledronic acid and lapatinib may be potential therapeutic drugs for osteosarcoma,but further validation is required through additional basic experiments and clinical studies.

BACKGROUND:In recent years,with the rapid development of biomedicine,the study of brain aging and exosomes has attracted more and more attention,but there is no bibliometrics analysis in this field. OBJECTIVE:To objectively analyze domestic and foreign literature on brain aging and exosomes in the past 15 years,to summarize the research status,hot spots,and development trends in this field. METHODS:Using the core database of Web of Science as a search platform,we downloaded the literature on brain aging and exosomes published from the establishment of the database to December 28,2022,and analyzed the data from the aspects of country or region,institution,author,keywords,and co-cited literature using CiteSpace 6.1.R6 visualization software. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:A total of 1 045 research articles were included,and the number of publications on brain aging and exosomes research both domestically and internationally was showing an increasing trend year by year.The United States ranked first with 429 papers,and China ranked second with 277 papers.Louisiana State University ranked first with 16 articles.Professor Lukiw Walter J from Louisiana State University in the United States was the author with the highest number of publications,and Professor Bartel DP from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology was the author with the most citations.The most prolific Journal was the International Journal of Molecular Sciences.Alzheimer's disease,microRNA,gene expression,extracellular vesicles,exosomes,oxidative stress,and biomarkers are the most relevant terms.According to the research on hot topics,biomarkers have become a new research hotspot.The above results indicate that the research on brain aging and exosomes has gradually increased in the past 15 years.The research direction has gradually shifted from the initial exploration of the expression of miRNAs in central nervous system diseases related to brain aging to the search for biomarkers that can identify and diagnose neurodegenerative diseases.The study of exocrine miRNAs to protect central nervous system from damage has emerged as promising therapeutic strategy.

ObjectiveTo observe the intervention effect of Fufang Kangjiaolv capsules on anxiety-like behaviors in the rat model of chronic restraint stress （CRS） and explore the mechanism underlying the anti-anxiety effect via the microbiota-gut-brain axis. MethodsRats were assigned into blank， model， positive drug （diazepam， 1 mg·kg^-1）， and low-， medium-， and high-dose （0.75， 1.5， 3 g·kg^-1， respectively） Fufang Kangjiaolv capsules groups. After 14 days of administration， the elevated plus maze test， open field test， light and dark box test， and marble burying test were performed. Hematoxylin-eosin staining was employed to observe the pathological changes in the hippocampus and colon of rats， and Nissl staining was conducted to observe the damage of hippocampal neurons. The gut microbiota was analyzed by 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Real-time fluorescence quantitative polymerase chain reaction （Real-time PCR） was employed to determine the mRNA levels of zonula occludens-1 （ZO-1） and occludin in the colon of rats. The levels of tumor necrosis factor-α （TNF-α）， interleukin-6 （IL-6）， and interleukin-1β （IL-1β） in the colon， serum， and hippocampus were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Western blot was employed to determine the protein levels of ZO-1， occludin， nuclear factor-κB p65 （NF-κB p65） in the colon tissue and NF-κB p65 and brain-derived neurotrophic factor （BDNF） in the hippocampal tissue. ResultsCompared with the blank group， the model group showed reductions in the time and frequency ratio of rats entering the elevated plus maze， the time and frequency of rats entering the central area of the open field， the time of entering the open box， the times of passing through the light and dark box， and the number of unburied beads （P<0.05， P<0.01）. Compared with the model group， Fufang Kangjiaolv capsules ameliorated the anxiety of the model rats to varying degrees， and the high-dose group had the best effect， with increases in the proportions of time and frequency of rats entering the open arm in the elevated plus maze （P<0.05）， the number of rats entering the central area in the open field （P<0.05）， the time of entering the open box， the times of passing through the light and dark boxes， and the number of unburied beads （P<0.01）. Moreover， the high-dose group showed alleviated pathological damage of hippocampal neurons and colon. The results of 16S rRNA gene sequencing showed that the model group had increased relative abundance of Firmicutes， Deferribacterota， Romboutsia， and Phascolarctobacterium， while it had decreased relative abundance of Bavcteroidota and Lactobacillus. The drug administration groups showed increased relative abundance of Bavcteroidota， Bacteroides， norank f norank o Clostridia UCG-014， and Blautia and decreased relative abundance of Firmicutes and Deferribacterota. Compared with the blank group， the model group showed down-regulated protein and mRNA levels of ZO-1 and occludin in the colon （P<0.01）， elevated levels of TNF-α， IL-6， and IL-β in the colon， serum， and hippocampus （P<0.01）， up-regulated protein level of NF-κB p65 in the colon and hippocampus （P<0.01）， and down-regulated protein level of BDNF in the hippocampus （P<0.05）. Compared with the model group， high-dose Fufang Kangjiaolv capsules up-regulated the mRNA levels of ZO-1 and occludin in the colon （P<0.01）， lowered the levels of TNF-α， IL-6， and IL-β in the colon， serum， and hippocampus （P<0.01）， up-regulated the protein levels of ZO-1 （P<0.01） and occludin （P<0.05） in the colon， down-regulated the protein level of NF-κB p65 in the colon and hippocampus （P<0.05）， and up-regulated the protein level of BDNF in the hippocampus. ConclusionFufang Kangjiaolv capsules can reduce the anxiety-like behaviors in the rat model of CRS by regulating the gut microbiota disturbance， up-regulating the expression of tight junction proteins in the colon， repairing intestinal mucosal mechanical barrier， and down-regulating NF-κB/BDNF signaling pathway， thereby reducing peripheral and central inflammation. This study proves the hypothesis that Fufang Kangjiaolv capsules play an anti-anxiety role via the microbiota-gut-brain axis， providing a new idea for further research.

ObjectiveTo explore the mechanism of Shouhui Tongbian capsules in treating constipation based on the research foundation of its active components combined with network pharmacology and animal experiments. MethodsThe drug components were imported into SwissTargetPrediction to predict the targets of Shouhui Tongbian capsules， and constipation-related targets were collected from disease databases. A protein-protein interaction （PPI） network was constructed for the common targets shared by Shouhui Tongbian capsules and constipation to screen key targets， which was followed by gene ontology （GO） function and Kyoto encyclopedia of genes and genomes （KEGG） pathway enrichment analyses. A "bioactive component-target-pathway" network was constructed， and the core components of Shouhui Tongbian capsules in treating constipation were screened based on the topological parameters of this network. Molecular docking was employed to predict the binding affinity of core components to key targets. A mouse model of constipation was constructed to screen the key pathways and targets of the drug intervention in constipation. ResultsThe PPI network revealed six key constipation-related targets： protein kinase B （Akt1）， B-cell lymphoma-2 （Bcl-2）， glycogen synthase kinase-3β （GSK-3β）， cyclooxygenase-2 （PTGS2）， estrogen receptor 1 （ESR1）， and epidermal growth factor receptor （EGFR）. The KEGG pathway analysis showed that the phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase （PI3K）/Akt signaling pathway was the most enriched. The topological parameter analysis of the "bioactive component-target-pathway" network screened out the top 10 core components： auranetin， isosinensetin， naringin， diosmetin， quercetin， apigenin， luteolin， hesperidin， isorhapontigenin， and chrysophanol. Molecular docking results showed that the 10 core components had strong binding affinity with the 6 key targets. Animal experiments showed that after intervention with different doses of Shouhui Tongbian capsules， the time to the first black stool excretion was reduced and the fecal water content and small intestine charcoal propulsion rate of mice were improved. After treatment with Shouhui Tongbian capsules， the colonic mucosal injury and glandular arrangement were alleviated， and the muscle layer thickness was increased. Western blot results showed that Shouhui Tongbian capsules recovered the expression of apoptosis-related molecules mediated by the PI3K/Akt pathway in the colonic tissue of constipated mice. Terminal-deoxynucleotidyl transferase-mediated nick end labeling （TUNEL） results showed that the cell apoptosis rate of the colon significantly reduced after intervention with Shouhui Tongbian capsules. ConclusionThe results of network pharmacology and animal experiments confirmed that Shouhui Tongbian capsules can treat constipation through multiple targets and pathways. The capsules can effectively intervene in loperamide-induced constipation in mice by regulating the constipation indicators and reducing cell apoptosis in the colon tissue via activating the PI3K/Akt signaling pathway.