Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

Objective: To investigate the factors influencing intraoperative blood transfusion in patients with hip fractures and to develop a machine learning (ML) model for predicting this risk. Methods: A total of 424 patients with hip fractures who underwent surgical treatment between November 2022 and March 2025 in our hospital were selected. Key feature variables of intraoperative blood transfusion risk were identified using the Boruta algorithm. Four different ML algorithms—support vector machine (SVM), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), mixed discriminant analysis (MDA), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)—were used to develop predictive models for intraoperative blood transfusion risk. The predictive performance of the four ML models were evaluated using accuracy, precision, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, precision-recall curves (PRC), precision-recall gain curves (PRGC), and F1 scores. Shapley additive interpretation (SHAP) was used to interpret the final model. Results: Among the 424 patients, 77(18.2%) received intraoperative blood transfusion. The Boruta algorithm identified albumin (ALB), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), types of anesthesia, types of fracture, and hemoglobin (Hb) as key feature variables for predicting intraoperative blood transfusion risk. In model evaluation, the SVM model outperforms the other three models across multiple metrics, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), recall, recall gain, accuracy, precision, F1 score, and the area under the precision-recall curve (PRC-AUC). The SVM model, interpreted and visualized based on SHAP values, effectively predicted intraoperative blood transfusion risk in patients with hip fracture. A visual online application was developed based on the SVM model (https://pbo-nomogram.shinyapps.io/blood/). Conclusion: Preoperative low ALB and Hb levels, prolonged APTT, general anesthesia, and intertrochanteric fractures are risk factors for intraoperative blood transfusion in hip fracture patients. The risk prediction model for intraoperative blood transfusion constructed based on the SVM algorithm has optimal performance, which provides new ideas and methods for the clinical early identification of hip fracture patients with high transfusion risk and the implementation of targeted interventions.

ObjectiveTo address the limitations of the current quality standard for Polygalae Radix（PR）， which relies on a single component for quality assessment and struggles to holistically control its intrinsic quality， by constructing a comprehensive quality evaluation system integrating "macro-characterization of chemical profile， synchronous quantification of multiple index components， and quantitative analysis of multi-components by single marker（QAMS） for key component groups". This study aims to facilitate the scientific revision of the quality standard for PR. MethodsHigh performance liquid chromatography（HPLC） characteristic chromatograms were established for 11 batches of PR medicinal materials（YZ）， 10 batches of PR decoction pieces（YP）， and 10 batches of licorice-processed PR decoction pieces（ZYZ）， followed by similarity evaluation and identification of common peaks. HPLC-QAMS was developed for xanthones（sibiricaxanthone B， polygalaxanthone Ⅺ， polygalaxanthone Ⅲ） in the characteristic chromatograms. Simultaneously， the external standard method（ESM） was used to determine the contents of the corresponding xanthones and 3，6'-disinapoyl sucrose in YZ， YP， and ZYZ， followed by multivariate statistical analysis and Spearman correlation analysis. ResultsThe similarity between the characteristic chromatograms of 31 batches of PR samples and the reference chromatogram was>0.9. A total of 13 common peaks were identified， and 10 of these peaks were characterized through reference standard comparison. The successfully constructed QAMS method showed that the relative correction factors（RCFs） of sibiricaxanthone B and polygalaxanthone Ⅺ to polygalaxanthone Ⅲ were 0.76 and 0.88， and their relative retention times（RRTs） were 0.85 and 0.97， respectively. The results calculated by the QAMS method showed no significant difference from those obtained by the ESM. According to the limit standard for polygalaxanthone Ⅲ in the 2020 edition of the Pharmacopoeia of the People's Republic of China（hereinafter referred to as the Chinese Pharmacopoeia）， the pass rate of 31 batches of samples was only 19.35%. Multivariate statistical analysis indicated certain compositional differences between different batches of YZ and YP， as well as between YP and ZYZ， with 3，6'-disinapoyl sucrose identified as the main differentiating component. Furthermore， correlation analysis revealed that the content of polygalaxanthone Ⅲ was positively correlated with the contents of sibiricaxanthone B and polygalaxanthone Ⅺ， but showed no association with the content of 3，6'-disinapoyl sucrose. ConclusionIt is recommended that the content limit for polygalaxanthone Ⅲ in YZ，YP and ZYZ be revised to not less than 0.07%， or the total content of polygalaxanthone Ⅲ， sibiricaxanthone B and polygalaxanthone Ⅺ be not less than 0.18%. The newly established triple quality control model of "holistic control via characteristic chromatograms， precise quantification of oligosaccharide esters， and efficient detection of xanthones by QAMS" provides a systematic and precise solution for quality evaluation of PR and similar Chinese herbal medicines.

ObjectiveTo explore the central neuroregulation mechanism of heat-sensitive moxibustion for knee osteoarthritis on pain relief. MethodsThirty patients who did not have experience of Deqi （得气） during heat-sensitive moxibustion treatment were assigned to the "non-Deqi group"， while another 30 patients who had experience of Deqi were assigned to the "Deqi group". Both groups received moxibustion at the left Heding （EX-LE2） acupoint. In the Deqi group， after the patients experienced sensation of Deqi at the acupoint， moxibustion was applied at approximately 3 cm from the skin for 10 minutes； in the non-Deqi group， moxibustion was also applied at approximately 3 cm from the skin for 10 minutes. Both groups received treatment once daily for 10 consecutive days. Knee joint pain was assessed before and after treatment using the visual analog scale （VAS）. Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging （rs-fMRI） scans were performed on all participants before the first treatment session and after the final session on the 10th day. The fractional amplitude of low-frequency fluctuations （fALFF） maps before and after treatment were processed using the SPM12 module by MATLAB. ResultsAfter treatment， VAS scores in both groups were significantly lower than before treatment （P＜0.05 or P＜0.01）， with the Deqi group showing significantly lower VAS scores than the non-Deqi group （P＜0.01）. Compared to before treatment， the Deqi group exhibited significant activation in the prefrontal cortex （t = 6.28）， white matter （t = 6.36）， and left temporal lobe （t = 9.33）， while significant inhibition was observed in the occipital lobe （t = -9.86） and right cerebrum （t = -4.54， P＜0.01）； in the non-Deqi group， significant changes after treatment were observed in the left occipital lobe （t = -6.42）， left medial frontal gyrus （t = -4.35）， left middle frontal gyrus （t = -4.74）， right superior frontal gyrus （t = -4.82）， right superior temporal gyrus （t = -6.61）， and right cerebellar posterior lobe （t = -8.64）， all of which were in inhibited states （P＜0.01）. Compared to the non-Deqi group， the Deqi group exhibited significant activation after treatment in the external nucleus （t = 5.77）， white matter （t = 3.58）， right cerebrum （t = 5.84）， left cerebellum （t = 5.35）， and left cerebrum （t = 4.32）， while significant inhibition was observed in the prefrontal cortex （t = -4.16）， occipital lobe （t = -4.87）， and precentral gyrus （t = -4.46， P＜0.01）. ConclusionsHeat-sensitive moxibustion provides better analgesic effects for knee osteoarthritis under state of Deqi. Its central neuroregulation mechanism may be related to the involvement of the frontal lobe， temporal lobe， occipital lobe， external nucleus， white matter， right cerebrum， left cerebellum， left cerebrum， and precentral gyrus in modulating pain signals.

Background: Obesity and chronic pain are related in both directions, according to earlier observational research.This research aimed to analyze the causal association between obesity and chronic pain at the genetic level, as well as to assess whether common factors mediate this relationship. Methods: This study used bidirectional two sample Mendelian randomization (MR) technique to analyze the association between obesity and chronic pain. Obesity's summary genome-wide association data were obtained from European ancestry groups, as measured by body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio, waist circumference (WC), and hip circumference (HC), genome-wide association study data for chronic pain also came from the UK population, including chronic pain at three different sites (back, hip, and headache), chronic widespread pain (CWP), and multisite chronic pain (MCP). Secondly, a two-step MR and multivariate MR investigation was performed to evaluate the mediating effects of several proposed confounders. Results: The authors discovered a link between chronic pain and obesity. More specifically, a sensitivity analysis was done to confirm the associations between greater BMI, WC, and HC with an increased risk of CWP and MCP.Importantly, the intermediate MR results suggest that education levels and smoking initiation may mediate the causal relationship between BMI on CWP, with a mediation effect of 23.08% and 15.38%, respectively. Conclusions The authors’ findings demonstrate that the importance of education and smoking in understanding chronic pain’s pathogenesis, which is important for the primary prevention and prognosis of chronic pain.

Background: Obesity and chronic pain are related in both directions, according to earlier observational research.This research aimed to analyze the causal association between obesity and chronic pain at the genetic level, as well as to assess whether common factors mediate this relationship. Methods: This study used bidirectional two sample Mendelian randomization (MR) technique to analyze the association between obesity and chronic pain. Obesity's summary genome-wide association data were obtained from European ancestry groups, as measured by body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio, waist circumference (WC), and hip circumference (HC), genome-wide association study data for chronic pain also came from the UK population, including chronic pain at three different sites (back, hip, and headache), chronic widespread pain (CWP), and multisite chronic pain (MCP). Secondly, a two-step MR and multivariate MR investigation was performed to evaluate the mediating effects of several proposed confounders. Results: The authors discovered a link between chronic pain and obesity. More specifically, a sensitivity analysis was done to confirm the associations between greater BMI, WC, and HC with an increased risk of CWP and MCP.Importantly, the intermediate MR results suggest that education levels and smoking initiation may mediate the causal relationship between BMI on CWP, with a mediation effect of 23.08% and 15.38%, respectively. Conclusions The authors’ findings demonstrate that the importance of education and smoking in understanding chronic pain’s pathogenesis, which is important for the primary prevention and prognosis of chronic pain.

Background: Obesity and chronic pain are related in both directions, according to earlier observational research.This research aimed to analyze the causal association between obesity and chronic pain at the genetic level, as well as to assess whether common factors mediate this relationship. Methods: This study used bidirectional two sample Mendelian randomization (MR) technique to analyze the association between obesity and chronic pain. Obesity's summary genome-wide association data were obtained from European ancestry groups, as measured by body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio, waist circumference (WC), and hip circumference (HC), genome-wide association study data for chronic pain also came from the UK population, including chronic pain at three different sites (back, hip, and headache), chronic widespread pain (CWP), and multisite chronic pain (MCP). Secondly, a two-step MR and multivariate MR investigation was performed to evaluate the mediating effects of several proposed confounders. Results: The authors discovered a link between chronic pain and obesity. More specifically, a sensitivity analysis was done to confirm the associations between greater BMI, WC, and HC with an increased risk of CWP and MCP.Importantly, the intermediate MR results suggest that education levels and smoking initiation may mediate the causal relationship between BMI on CWP, with a mediation effect of 23.08% and 15.38%, respectively. Conclusions The authors’ findings demonstrate that the importance of education and smoking in understanding chronic pain’s pathogenesis, which is important for the primary prevention and prognosis of chronic pain.

OBJECTIVE: To construct a longitudinal trajectory model of arterial oxygen tension (PaO₂) within 24 hours after cardiac arrest (CA). METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted. CA patients admitted to the ICU from 2014 to 2015 were selected from the eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD). Data about patients' demographic characteristics, history of comorbidities, laboratory test indicators within 24 hours of intensive care unit (ICU) admission [including all PaO₂ data and arterial carbon dioxide tension (PaCO₂)], vasopressor use, and clinical outcomes were extracted from the database. The primary outcome variable was all-cause in-hospital mortality. Group-based trajectory model (GBTM) were built based on the changes in PaO₂ within 24 hours of ICU admission, and patients were grouped according to their initial static PaO₂ values upon ICU admission. Multivariable adjusted Poisson regression analysis was used to compare the in-hospital mortality risk among patients in different PaO₂ dynamic trajectory groups. Sensitivity analyses were performed using multivariable logistic regression and multivariable adjusted Poisson regression without imputation of missing values. RESULTS: A total of 3 866 CA patients were included. Three GBTM trajectory groups were identified based on PaO₂ changes within 24 hours of ICU admission: Group-1 (low level first increased then decreased, 148 cases), Group-2 (sustained low level, 3 040 cases), and Group-3 (first high level then decreased, 678 cases). Significant differences were found among the three groups in age, body weight, maximum serum potassium, maximum PaCO₂, minimum hemoglobin (Hb), vasopressor use, total hospitalization time, ICU stay, and hospital mortality. After incorporating variables with significant differences into the multivariable adjusted Poisson regression model, results showed that compared to Group-2 patients, patients in Group-1 and Group-3 had an increased risk of all-cause in-hospital mortality [Group-1 adjusted relative risk (aRR) = 1.20, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.02-1.41; Group-3 aRR = 1.11, 95%CI was 1.01-1.24]. Based on initial static PaO₂ values at ICU admission, patients were divided into four groups: PaO₂ < 100 mmHg (1 mmHg = 0.133 kPa; 1 217 cases), PaO₂ 100-200 mmHg (569 cases), PaO₂ 201-300 mmHg (547 cases), and PaO₂ > 300 mmHg (1 082 cases). Multivariable adjusted Poisson regression analysis indicated a significant upward trend in aRR for the latter three groups compared to the PaO₂ < 100 mmHg group. Sensitivity analyses revealed that compared to Group-2, patients in Group-1 and Group-3 had a significantly increased risk of all-cause in-hospital mortality (both P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS Within 24 hours after return of spontaneous circulation in CA patients, PaO₂ exhibits different dynamic trajectories, and patients with hyperoxia have an increased risk of in-hospital mortality.
Humans ; Retrospective Studies ; Hospital Mortality ; Heart Arrest/blood* ; Prognosis ; Oxygen/blood* ; Intensive Care Units ; Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged

Avian influenza H10N3 is a type of avian influenza virus that can occasionally infect humans and cause severe pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). On December 25, 2024, a 23-year-old obese female patient with H10N3 avian influenza complicated with severe ARDS was admitted to the Fourth People's Hospital of Nanning. The patient was transferred to our department due to "fever, cough, and shortness of breath for 13 days". Physical examination revealed moist rales in bilateral lungs. Chest imaging showed large areas of ground-glass opacity and consolidation in both lungs. Based on the patient's medical history, clinical manifestations, and laboratory findings, she was diagnosed with human infection of H10N3 avian influenza, severe pneumonia, and severe ARDS. Supported by mechanical ventilation and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), daily monitoring of airway peak pressure, plateau pressure (Pplat), driving pressure (ΔP), and lung compliance was performed to guide the adjustment of tidal volume (VT) and positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) during invasive mechanical ventilation. Medications including anti-avian influenza virus agents, antibacterial drugs, and antifungals were administered. Eventually, the patient's condition improved gradually, and she was successfully weaned from ECMO. No ventilator-induced lung injury (VILI) or multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) related to ARDS occurred during ECMO support. However, during the final stage of ventilator weaning after the restoration of spontaneous breathing, a right pneumothorax occurred. Closed thoracic drainage was performed, after which the ventilator was successfully discontinued. The patient was successfully transferred out of the intensive care unit (ICU), recovered fully, and was discharged from the hospital. In the invasive mechanical ventilation management of patients infected with H10N3 avian influenza complicated by ARDS, monitoring airway peak pressure, Pplat, ΔP, and assessing pulmonary compliance may facilitate more standardized management of such ARDS patients and help reduce VILI.
Humans ; Female ; Influenza, Human/complications* ; Respiratory Distress Syndrome/complications* ; Respiration, Artificial/methods* ; Obesity/complications* ; Young Adult ; Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation ; Influenza A virus

Functional dyspepsia (FD), characterized by persistent or recurrent dyspeptic symptoms without identifiable organic, systemic or metabolic causes, is an increasingly recognized global health issue. The objective of this guideline is to equip clinicians and nursing professionals with evidence-based strategies for the management and treatment of adult patients with FD using traditional Chinese medicine (TCM). The Guideline Development Group consulted existing TCM consensus documents on FD and convened a panel of 35 clinicians to generate initial clinical queries. To address these queries, a systematic literature search was conducted across PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), VIP Database, China Biology Medicine (SinoMed) Database, Wanfang Database, Traditional Medicine Research Data Expanded (TMRDE), and the Traditional Chinese Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System (TCMLARS). The evidence from the literature was critically appraised using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. The strength of the recommendations was ascertained through a consensus-building process involving TCM and allopathic medicine experts, methodologists, pharmacologists, nursing specialists, and health economists, leveraging their collective expertise and empirical knowledge. The guideline comprises a total of 43 evidence-informed recommendations that span a range of clinical aspects, including the pathogenesis according to TCM, diagnostic approaches, therapeutic interventions, efficacy assessments, and prognostic considerations. Please cite this article as: Zhang SS, Zhao LQ, Hou XH, Bian ZX, Zheng JH, Tian HH, Yang GH, Hong WS, He YY, Liu L, Shen H, Li YP, Xie S, Shu J, Zeng BF, Li JX, Liu Z, Xiao ZH, Xiao JD, Zheng PY, Huang SG, Chen SL, Fei GJ. International clinical practice guideline on the use of traditional Chinese medicine for functional dyspepsia (2025). J Integr Med. 2025; 23(5):502-518.
Dyspepsia/drug therapy* ; Humans ; Medicine, Chinese Traditional/methods* ; Practice Guidelines as Topic ; Drugs, Chinese Herbal/therapeutic use*