Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

BACKGROUND:The mechanisms underlying the occurrence of pressure injuries are complex,and it is not entirely clear which factors play a central role in the development of pressure injuries and how these factors operate. OBJECTIVE:To investigate the relationship between Piezo-type mechanosensitive ion channel component 1(Piezo1)and the occurrence of pressure injuries. METHODS:(1)Cellular experiment:Human immortalized keratinocytes(HaCaT)were treated with Yoda1,a Piezo1 agonist,at different concentrations.Cell viability,calcium ion influx,Piezo1,and apoptosis-related protein expression were detected.(2)Animal experiment:Twelve Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly divided into a control group and three experimental groups,with three rats in each group.The control group was not subjected to pressure,while in the three experimental groups,magnets with a thickness of 1,2,and 3 mm were used to press on both sides of the rats'back for 1 hour,respectively,to establish the animal models of pressure injuries.After modeling,all traumatic tissues were excised and subjected to hematoxylin-eosin,Masson,immunofluorescence staining and western blot assay. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:Cellular experiments:The results of live/dead cell staining showed that HaCaT cell apoptosis increased with the increase of Yoda1 concentration(0,2.5,5,and 10 μmol/L),and calcium ion influx increased with the increase of Yoda1 concentration(0,5,and 10 μmol/L),as well as with the prolongation of treatment time.Western blot assay results showed an increase in the expression of BAX,TG2,and PIEZO1 and a decrease in the expression of the expression of Bcl-2 protein in HaCaT cells in 5 and 10 μmol/L Yoda1 groups compared with the control group(0 μmol/L Yoda1).Animal experiments:The results of hematoxylin-eosin and Masson staining showed that the skin structure of the three experimental groups was damaged at the compression site,there was subcutaneous fat liquefaction and necrosis,and collagen was sparse and disorganized,and damage to the skin structure at the compression site was aggravated with the increase of magnet thickness.Immunofluorescence staining and western blot results showed that compared with the control group,the expression of BAX,TG2,Yap1 and PIEZO1 proteins was elevated,and the expression of Bcl-2 proteins was lowered in the three experimental groups.Moreover,the expression of related proteins showed more significant changes with the increase of magnet thickness(pressure).To conclude,skin compression activates PIEZO1,leading to a significant influx of calcium ions.As the pressure increases,this ultimately results in cell apoptosis due to calcium overload.

Objective: Data on syncopal donation-related vasovagal reaction (DRVR) collected from 74 blood centers between 2020 and 2023 was statistically analyzed to provide a reference for developing preventive strategies against syncopal DRVR. Methods: Data on blood donation adverse reactions and basic information of donors from 2020 to 2023 were collected through the information management system at monitoring sentinel sites. Statistical analysis was performed on the following aspects of syncopal DRVR: characteristics of donors who experienced syncope, reported incidence, triggers, duration, presence and occurrence time of syncope-related trauma, clinical management including outpatient and inpatient treatment, and severity grading. Results: From 2020 to 2023, 45 966 donation-related adverse reactions were recorded. Of these, 1 665 (3.72%) cases were syncopal DRVR. The incidence of syncopal DRVR decreased with age, being the highest in the 18-22 age group. Incidence was significantly higher in female donors than male donors, in first-time donors than repeat donors, and in university and individual donors than group donors (all P<0.05). There was no statistically significant difference among different blood donation locations (P>0.05). The top three triggers were tension, fatigue, and needle phobia or fear of blood. Among syncopal DRVR cases, 60.36% occurred during blood collection, 87.63% lasted for less than 60 seconds, and 5.05% were accompanied by trauma. Notably, 57.14% of these traumas occurred after donor had left the blood collection site. Syncope severity was graded based on required treatment: grade 1 (fully recovered without treatment, 95.50%); grade 2 (recovered after outpatient treatment, 4.02%); and grade 3 (recovered after inpatient treatment, 0.48%). Conclusion: By analyzing the data of syncopal DRVR cases, it is possible to provide a reference for formulating blood donor safety policies.

Objective:To investigate the association of urinary cadmium levels with peripheral leukocyte classification counts among middle-aged and older adults aged 40 to 89 years in selected areas of China.Methods:The research was based on the survey of the impact of soil quality of agricultural land on human health in typical areas conducted in 2019-2020. A total of 5 600 middle-aged and older adults aged 40 to 89 years were included by using a multi-stage stratified random sampling method. Baseline characteristics of the subjects were collected and physical examinations were performed. Random midstream urine was collected to measure urinary cadmium and urinary creatinine and fasting venous blood was collected to measure the leukocyte count, neutrophil count, lymphocyte count, monocyte count and eosinophil count. The linear mixed effect model was used to analyse the association of urinary cadmium levels with leukocyte classification counts, and the dose-response relationship between them was analyzed by using the restricted cubic spline (RCS) function.Results:The age of the subjects was (63.17±12.02) years; 2 851 (50.91%) were males; and the M ( Q 1, Q 3) of urinary creatinine-corrected urinary cadmium levels was 2.69 (1.52, 4.69) μg/g·creatinine. After adjusting for confounding factors, the results of linear mixed effects model analysis showed that for each 1-unit increase in urinary creatinine-corrected urinary cadmium level, the percentage change [% (95% CI)] of leukocyte count and lymphocyte count was -1.70% (-2.61%, -0.79%) and -1.57% (-2.86%, -0.26%), respectively. RCS function showed a negative linear relationship between urinary creatinine-corrected urinary cadmium levels and leukocyte counts and lymphocyte counts, respectively (all Pnon-linear>0.05). Conclusion:Urinary cadmium levels are negatively associated with leukocyte count and lymphocyte count among middle-aged and older adults aged 40 to 89 years in selected areas of China.

Objective:To investigate the association of urinary cadmium levels with peripheral leukocyte classification counts among middle-aged and older adults aged 40 to 89 years in selected areas of China.Methods:The research was based on the survey of the impact of soil quality of agricultural land on human health in typical areas conducted in 2019-2020. A total of 5 600 middle-aged and older adults aged 40 to 89 years were included by using a multi-stage stratified random sampling method. Baseline characteristics of the subjects were collected and physical examinations were performed. Random midstream urine was collected to measure urinary cadmium and urinary creatinine and fasting venous blood was collected to measure the leukocyte count, neutrophil count, lymphocyte count, monocyte count and eosinophil count. The linear mixed effect model was used to analyse the association of urinary cadmium levels with leukocyte classification counts, and the dose-response relationship between them was analyzed by using the restricted cubic spline (RCS) function.Results:The age of the subjects was (63.17±12.02) years; 2 851 (50.91%) were males; and the M ( Q 1, Q 3) of urinary creatinine-corrected urinary cadmium levels was 2.69 (1.52, 4.69) μg/g·creatinine. After adjusting for confounding factors, the results of linear mixed effects model analysis showed that for each 1-unit increase in urinary creatinine-corrected urinary cadmium level, the percentage change [% (95% CI)] of leukocyte count and lymphocyte count was -1.70% (-2.61%, -0.79%) and -1.57% (-2.86%, -0.26%), respectively. RCS function showed a negative linear relationship between urinary creatinine-corrected urinary cadmium levels and leukocyte counts and lymphocyte counts, respectively (all Pnon-linear>0.05). Conclusion:Urinary cadmium levels are negatively associated with leukocyte count and lymphocyte count among middle-aged and older adults aged 40 to 89 years in selected areas of China.

Objective To construct and identify a patient-derived organoid model,and to investigate the sensitivity of chemotherapy drugs using this model.Methods Pancreatic cancer cells were obtained from the surgical specimens of two female patients with a confirmed diagnosis of pancreatic cancer after tumor tissue digestion,and then the cells were inoculated into a culture dish using matrigel for three-dimensional culture.Paraffin sections were prepared for HE staining and immunohistochemical staining and were compared with the parent tumor tissue to determine whether the histopathological features of the tumor in vivo were preserved.The pancreatic cancer organoids were treated with seven chemotherapy drugs at different concentrations;Cell Titer-Glo?3D reagent was used to measure cell viability,and the results of drug sensitivity were analyzed.Results Two patient-derived pancreatic cancer organoids were successfully constructed,and HE staining and immunohistochemical staining showed that the pancreatic cancer organoids had consistent histopathological features with the tumors of the corresponding patient.Both pancreatic cancer organoids were more sensitive to gemcitabine monotherapy and the combination of oxaliplatin+SN38+fluorouracil,and patient 1 was more sensitive than patient 2.There were individual differences in the response to drugs between the organoids from different patients.Conclusion The pancreatic cancer organoid model successfully constructed in this study can reflect the histological classification of parent pancreatic tumors and can be used for in vitro chemotherapy drug sensitivity test,which is expected to provide a reference for clinical medication.

Objective:To investigate symptoms of anxiety and depression among primary and middle school students quarantined in hotels during the COVID-19 epidemic.Methods:Anxiety and depression symptoms among 726 primary and middle school students quarantined in hotels were investigated with The Screen for Child Anxiety Related Emotional Disorders(SCARED)and Depression Self-rating Scale for Children(DSRSC)from September to October 2022 in Chifeng City,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.There were 624 students completed investi-gation with response rate of 86％.The positive score of SCARED was ≥23 and DSRSC was ≥ 15.Results:The detection rates of anxiety and depression were 17.9％and 15.4％respectively.The detection rates of anxiety and depression were higherin middle school students than inprimary school students(Ps＜0.05).The scores of general-ized anxiety and social phobia factors were higher in female students than in male students(Ps＜0.05).The scores of dissociative anxiety factor and depression were higher in middle school students than in primary school students(Ps＜0.05).Conclusion:During the COVID-19 epidemic,middle school students quarantined in hotels are more likely to have anxiety and depression symptoms than primary school students,and female students are more likely to have anxiety symptoms than male students.

Background There are a variety of microorganisms in ambient air, and susceptible people can be infected once contact with pathogenic microorganisms in the environment. In order to avoid the spread of pathogenic bacteria, disinfection is the simplest and most effective way of killing pathogenic bacteria in the environment to block the contact between pathogenic bacteria and humans. Sodium hypochlorite (NaClO) is the most widely used disinfectant, but its safety in ambient air disinfection is not clear yet. Objective To establish a model of bronchial epithelial cell (BEAS-2B) injury induced by NaClO, and to explore the mechanism of the toxic effect of NaClO disinfectants on BEAS-2B. Methods Cells were treated with concentration gradients of 0, 25, 50,100, 200, and 400 μmol·L⁻¹ of the diluted NaClO (100 mmol·L⁻¹) standard solution, respectively, and cell activity was measured by cell counting kit-8 (CCK-8) assay after 15 and 30 min. Cells treated with 0, 25, and 50 μmol·L⁻¹ NaClO were selected to observe the cell morphology under an inverted microscope, apoptosis was determined by flow cytometry Annexin V FITC / PI double staining to determine the final experimental concentration. The morphology of organelles such as mitochondria was observed under a transmission electron microscope. Mitochondrial membrane potential of the cells was detected by JC-1 staining. Intracellular Ca²⁺ concentration was measured with a Fluo-4 AM fluorescent probe. Total cellular reactive oxygen species (ROS) was detected with a 2',7'-dichlorodihydrofluorescein diacetate (DCFH-DA) fluorescent probe, cell mitochondrial ROS with a dihydroethidium (DHE) fluorescent probe, and lipid peroxidation intermediate malondialdehyde (MDA) with a commercial kit. Results Compared with 0 μmol·L⁻¹, NaClO treatment group, cell morphology did not change a lot after 25 μmol·L⁻¹ NaClO treatment for 30 min, and the cells began to wrinkle and become round after 30 min treatment with 50 μmol·L⁻¹ NaClO, showing about 70% of normal cell viability (P<0.01). So 30 min 50 μmol·L⁻¹ NaClO treatment was selected for the subsequent experiment. The experimental results found that compared with the 0 μmol·L⁻¹ NaClO treatment group, the number of apoptotic cells increased (P<0.05), the mitochondrial membrane potential decreased (P<0.01), the intracellular Ca²⁺ concentration increased (P<0.05), the cellular ROS level increased (P<0.05), the mitochondrial ROS level increased (P<0.01), and the MDA content increased (P<0.01) in the NaClO treatment group.. Conclusion The study has successfully established a model of BEAS-2B injury induced by NaClO, and found that NaClO can lead to cell damage by inducing apoptosis and oxidative stress in BEAS-2B cells. According to the results, there are two possible reasons. First, NaClO solves in water to form hypochlorous acid (HClO) which is oxidative and increases the intracellular ROS level after entering cells, leading to cellular oxidative stress. Second, HClO enters cells to directly attack the mitochondrial membrane, resulting in the imbalance of potential inside and outside the mitochondrial membrane, and apoptosis caused by Ca²⁺ efflux.

Objective To compare the analgesic effect, duration and incidence of adverse reactions of liposome bupivacaine (LB) and bupivacaine hydrochloride after intercostal nerve block in single-port thoracoscopic lung surgery. Methods In Department of Thoracic Surgery of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinxiang Medical University between September 2023 and March 2024, 228 patients who needed to undergo thoracoscopic lung surgery were selected and divided into two groups by random number table method: a group B with bupivacaine hydrochloride (n=118), and a group LB with LB (n=110). Intraoperative intercostal nerve block was performed under endoscopy, and the time of first use of analgesic drugs after surgery, cumulative use of opioids 72 h after surgery, incidence of postoperative nausea and vomiting, length of stay and other indicators were evaluated and recorded. Results Visual analogue scale (VAS) scores at 4 h, 8 h, 12 h, 24 h, 48 h and 72 h in the LB group were significantly lower than those in the group B (P<0.05). The total number of activities within 48 h after surgery in the group B was significantly lower than that in the LB group (P<0.05), and the postoperative hospitalization stay in the LB group was shorter than that in the group B, but the difference was not statistically significant. There was no statistical difference between the two groups in postoperative adverse reactions. Conclusion Intercostal nerve block with LB during single-port thoracoscopic lung surgery can significantly reduce postoperative pain, improve quality of life, and promote recovery of the patients. It is worthy of clinical application.

Objective:To explore the cognition and intention of patients with lower limb deep vein thrombosis (DVT) to participate in patient-reported outcomes (PROs), so as to provide references for the promotion, application, and practice of PROs in lower limb DVT patients in China.Methods:This study adopted the phenomenological qualitative research method. From February to June 2023, 13 lower limb DVT patients admitted to Peking Union Medical College Hospital were selected for semi-structured in-depth interviews. Colaizzi 7-step analysis method was used for analyzing and summarizing data.Results:Thirteen patients with lower limb DVT highly recognized their own value in participating in PROs, namely health benefits, prevention of DVT complications, and reduction of disease uncertainty. Lower limb DVT patients expected to receive support from healthcare professionals, families, and portable and simplified reporting formats to promote their participation in PROs. From the patient 's own perspective, they perceived that insufficient attention to DVT caused by lack of awareness of the hazards of DVT and limited understanding of PROs made it difficult for them to participate in PROs. Conclusions:Lower limb DVT patients have a high intention to participate in PROs. The application and promotion of PROs in lower limb DVT patients in China require joint support from various sectors of society, among which strengthening effective health education for patients and their families and providing multi-channel reporting forms are the key to promoting of PROs.