1.Quality Evaluation of Naomaili Granules Based on Multi-component Content Determination and Fingerprint and Screening of Its Anti-neuroinflammatory Substance Basis
Ya WANG ; Yanan KANG ; Bo LIU ; Zimo WANG ; Xuan ZHANG ; Wei LAN ; Wen ZHANG ; Lu YANG ; Yi SUN
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(2):170-178
ObjectiveTo establish an ultra-performance liquid fingerprint and multi-components determination method for Naomaili granules. To evaluate the quality of different batches by chemometrics, and the anti-neuroinflammatory effects of water extract and main components of Naomaili granules were tested in vitro. MethodsThe similarity and common peaks of 27 batches of Naomaili granules were evaluated by using Ultra performance liquid chromatography (UPLC) fingerprint detection. Ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS) technology was used to determine the content of the index components in Naomaili granules and to evaluate the quality of different batches of Naomaili granules by chemometrics. LPS-induced BV-2 cell inflammation model was used to investigate the anti-neuroinflammatory effects of the water extract and main components of Naomaili granules. ResultsThe similarity of fingerprints of 27 batches of samples was > 0.90. A total of 32 common peaks were calibrated, and 23 of them were identified and assigned. In 27 batches of Naomaili granules, the mass fractions of 14 components that were stachydrine hydrochloride, leonurine hydrochloride, calycosin-7-O-glucoside, calycosin,tanshinoneⅠ, cryptotanshinone, tanshinoneⅡA, ginsenoside Rb1, notoginsenoside R1, ginsenoside Rg1, paeoniflorin, albiflorin, lactiflorin, and salvianolic acid B were found to be 2.902-3.498, 0.233-0.343, 0.111-0.301, 0.07-0.152, 0.136-0.228, 0.195-0.390, 0.324-0.482, 1.056-1.435, 0.271-0.397, 1.318-1.649, 3.038-4.059, 2.263-3.455, 0.152-0.232, 2.931-3.991 mg∙g-1, respectively. Multivariate statistical analysis showed that paeoniflorin, ginsenoside Rg1, ginsenoside Rb1 and staphylline hydrochloride were quality difference markers to control the stability of the preparation. The results of bioactive experiment showed that the water extract of Naomaili granules and the eight main components with high content in the prescription had a dose-dependent inhibitory effect on the release of NO in the cell supernatant. Among them, salvianolic acid B and ginsenoside Rb1 had strong anti-inflammatory activity, with IC50 values of (36.11±0.15) mg∙L-1 and (27.24±0.54) mg∙L-1, respectively. ConclusionThe quality evaluation method of Naomaili granules established in this study was accurate and reproducible. Four quality difference markers were screened out, and eight key pharmacodynamic substances of Naomaili granules against neuroinflammation were screened out by in vitro cell experiments.
2.Mechanisms of Shenqi Wenfei Prescription in Intervening in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in Rats Based on ROS/TXNIP/NLRP3 Signaling Pathway
Di WU ; Mengyao SHI ; Lu ZHANG ; Tong LIU ; Jiabing TONG ; Cheng YANG ; Zegeng LI
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(3):78-87
ObjectiveTo investigate the effects and underlying mechanisms of Shenqi Wenfei prescription (SQWF) on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). MethodsA rat model of COPD with lung Qi deficiency was established using lipopolysaccharide (LPS) combined with cigarette smoke. Forty-eight SD rats were randomly divided into a blank group, a model group, low-, medium-, and high-dose SQWF groups (2.835, 5.67, 11.34 g·kg-1), and a Yupingfeng group (1.35 g·kg-1). Drug administration began on day 29 after modeling and continued for 2 weeks. The general condition of the rats was observed, and the lung function in each group was assessed. Hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining was used to observe pathological changes in lung tissue. The proportion of inflammatory cells in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) was measured. Apoptosis in lung tissue was examined by terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase-mediated dUTP nick end-labeling (TUNEL) staining. The release level of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) in BALF was detected by a microplate assay. Reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels in lung tissue were detected using fluorescent probes. The levels of malondialdehyde (MDA), total superoxide dismutase (SOD), and reduced glutathione (GSH) in BALF were measured by biochemical methods. Ultrastructural changes in lung cells were observed via transmission electron microscopy. Double immunofluorescence staining was performed to detect the expression of thioredoxin-interacting protein (TXNIP) and nucleotide-binding oligomerization domain-like receptor protein 3 (NLRP3) in lung tissue. Western blot analysis was used to detect the protein expression of TXNIP, NLRP3, apoptosis-associated speck-like protein containing a CARD (ASC), cysteinyl aspartate-specific protease-1 (Caspase-1), Caspase-1 p20, gasdermin D (GSDMD), GSDMD N-terminal active fragment (GSDMD-N), interleukin-1β (IL-1β), and IL-18 in lung tissue. Serum IL-1β and IL-18 levels were measured by ELISA. ResultsCompared with the blank group, the model group showed lassitude, fatigue, tachypnea, and audible phlegm sounds, and lung function significantly declined (P0.01). Pulmonary emphysema and inflammatory cell infiltration were obvious. The level of inflammatory cells in BALF increased significantly (P0.05). The number of TUNEL-positive cells increased (P0.01). Levels of LDH, ROS, and MDA in BALF increased significantly (P0.01), while GSH and SOD activities decreased significantly (P0.01). Lung tissue cells showed irregular morphology, swollen mitochondria, disrupted cell membranes, and abundant vesicles, i.e., pyroptotic bodies. Protein levels of TXNIP, NLRP3, ASC, Caspase-1, Caspase-1 p20, GSDMD, GSDMD-N, IL-1β, and IL-18 in lung tissue were significantly elevated (P0.01), and serum IL-1β and IL-18 levels also increased significantly (P0.01). Compared with the model group, each medication group showed alleviation of qi deficiency symptoms and improved lung function (P0.01). Pulmonary emphysema and inflammatory cell infiltration were reduced. Inflammatory cell levels decreased (P0.05). The number of TUNEL-positive cells decreased significantly (P0.01). Levels of LDH, ROS, and MDA decreased significantly (P0.05), while GSH and SOD activities significantly increased (P0.01). Morphological and structural damage in lung tissue was improved to varying degrees. Protein levels of TXNIP, NLRP3, ASC, Caspase-1, Caspase-1 p20, GSDMD, GSDMD-N, IL-1β, and IL-18 in lung tissue significantly decreased (P0.01), and serum IL-1β and IL-18 levels also decreased significantly (P0.05). ConclusionSQWF can improve lung function and alleviate inflammatory responses in COPD rats. Its mechanism may be related to regulating the ROS/TXNIP/NLRP3 pathway and inhibiting pyroptosis.
3.Rapid Discrimination of Processing Degree of Wine-processed Chuanxiong Rhizoma Based on Intelligent Sensory Technology and Multivariate Statistical Analysis
Xiaolong ZHANG ; Xiaoni MA ; Xinzhu WANG ; Po HU ; Yang PAN ; Tulin LU ; Guangming YANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(3):174-182
ObjectiveTo explore the changes in color, odor and chemical components during wine-processing of Chuanxiong Rhizoma(CR), identify differential markers, and provide a basis for standardizing the process and establishing quality standards. MethodsFifteen batches of CR samples from 4 producing areas were collected. Colorimeter and electronic nose were used to detect the color changes and odor components of CR before and after wine-processing. Multivariate statistical methods including partial least squares-discriminant analysis(PLS-DA), principal component analysis(PCA), discriminant factor analysis(DFA) and Fisher discriminant analysis were applied to identify wine-processed CR at different processing stages and establish discriminant models, and differential components were screened out based on variable importance in the projection(VIP) value1. Then, high performance liquid chromatography(HPLC) was employed to detect the content changes of four components(ferulic acid, senkyunolide I, senkyunolide A and ligustilide) during the processing stages. ResultsThe differences of wine-processed CR at various stages were primarily reflected in color parameters L*(brightness value), a*(red-green value) and b*(yellow-blue value). Based on chromaticity differences, the color reference ranges were established for moderately processed CR, including L* of 46.75-48.24, a* of 5.37-6.07 and b* of 20.32-21.70. In odor analysis, DFA revealed significant differences among processing stages, and 11 odor markers were identified, with four differential markers(4-hydroxy-3-butylphthalide, isopropyl butyrate, L-limonene and 1-methoxyhexane) based on VIP values. HPLC results showed that there was no significant difference of the four components except for ligustilide in wine-processed CR at different stages. ConclusionThis study achieved rapid identification of wine-processed CR with different processing degrees by electronic sensory technology and differential component content detection, with discrimination accuracy rates of 92.4% and 93.272% for color and odor, respectively. This paper also established the reference ranges of main colorimetric parameters for wine-processed CR at different stages, and four differential components were screened out, providing a basis for standardizing the processing of wine-processed CR and establishing quality standards for this decoction pieces.
4.Mechanisms of Shenqi Wenfei Prescription in Intervening in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in Rats Based on ROS/TXNIP/NLRP3 Signaling Pathway
Di WU ; Mengyao SHI ; Lu ZHANG ; Tong LIU ; Jiabing TONG ; Cheng YANG ; Zegeng LI
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(3):78-87
ObjectiveTo investigate the effects and underlying mechanisms of Shenqi Wenfei prescription (SQWF) on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). MethodsA rat model of COPD with lung Qi deficiency was established using lipopolysaccharide (LPS) combined with cigarette smoke. Forty-eight SD rats were randomly divided into a blank group, a model group, low-, medium-, and high-dose SQWF groups (2.835, 5.67, 11.34 g·kg-1), and a Yupingfeng group (1.35 g·kg-1). Drug administration began on day 29 after modeling and continued for 2 weeks. The general condition of the rats was observed, and the lung function in each group was assessed. Hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining was used to observe pathological changes in lung tissue. The proportion of inflammatory cells in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) was measured. Apoptosis in lung tissue was examined by terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase-mediated dUTP nick end-labeling (TUNEL) staining. The release level of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) in BALF was detected by a microplate assay. Reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels in lung tissue were detected using fluorescent probes. The levels of malondialdehyde (MDA), total superoxide dismutase (SOD), and reduced glutathione (GSH) in BALF were measured by biochemical methods. Ultrastructural changes in lung cells were observed via transmission electron microscopy. Double immunofluorescence staining was performed to detect the expression of thioredoxin-interacting protein (TXNIP) and nucleotide-binding oligomerization domain-like receptor protein 3 (NLRP3) in lung tissue. Western blot analysis was used to detect the protein expression of TXNIP, NLRP3, apoptosis-associated speck-like protein containing a CARD (ASC), cysteinyl aspartate-specific protease-1 (Caspase-1), Caspase-1 p20, gasdermin D (GSDMD), GSDMD N-terminal active fragment (GSDMD-N), interleukin-1β (IL-1β), and IL-18 in lung tissue. Serum IL-1β and IL-18 levels were measured by ELISA. ResultsCompared with the blank group, the model group showed lassitude, fatigue, tachypnea, and audible phlegm sounds, and lung function significantly declined (P0.01). Pulmonary emphysema and inflammatory cell infiltration were obvious. The level of inflammatory cells in BALF increased significantly (P0.05). The number of TUNEL-positive cells increased (P0.01). Levels of LDH, ROS, and MDA in BALF increased significantly (P0.01), while GSH and SOD activities decreased significantly (P0.01). Lung tissue cells showed irregular morphology, swollen mitochondria, disrupted cell membranes, and abundant vesicles, i.e., pyroptotic bodies. Protein levels of TXNIP, NLRP3, ASC, Caspase-1, Caspase-1 p20, GSDMD, GSDMD-N, IL-1β, and IL-18 in lung tissue were significantly elevated (P0.01), and serum IL-1β and IL-18 levels also increased significantly (P0.01). Compared with the model group, each medication group showed alleviation of qi deficiency symptoms and improved lung function (P0.01). Pulmonary emphysema and inflammatory cell infiltration were reduced. Inflammatory cell levels decreased (P0.05). The number of TUNEL-positive cells decreased significantly (P0.01). Levels of LDH, ROS, and MDA decreased significantly (P0.05), while GSH and SOD activities significantly increased (P0.01). Morphological and structural damage in lung tissue was improved to varying degrees. Protein levels of TXNIP, NLRP3, ASC, Caspase-1, Caspase-1 p20, GSDMD, GSDMD-N, IL-1β, and IL-18 in lung tissue significantly decreased (P0.01), and serum IL-1β and IL-18 levels also decreased significantly (P0.05). ConclusionSQWF can improve lung function and alleviate inflammatory responses in COPD rats. Its mechanism may be related to regulating the ROS/TXNIP/NLRP3 pathway and inhibiting pyroptosis.
5.Rapid Discrimination of Processing Degree of Wine-processed Chuanxiong Rhizoma Based on Intelligent Sensory Technology and Multivariate Statistical Analysis
Xiaolong ZHANG ; Xiaoni MA ; Xinzhu WANG ; Po HU ; Yang PAN ; Tulin LU ; Guangming YANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(3):174-182
ObjectiveTo explore the changes in color, odor and chemical components during wine-processing of Chuanxiong Rhizoma(CR), identify differential markers, and provide a basis for standardizing the process and establishing quality standards. MethodsFifteen batches of CR samples from 4 producing areas were collected. Colorimeter and electronic nose were used to detect the color changes and odor components of CR before and after wine-processing. Multivariate statistical methods including partial least squares-discriminant analysis(PLS-DA), principal component analysis(PCA), discriminant factor analysis(DFA) and Fisher discriminant analysis were applied to identify wine-processed CR at different processing stages and establish discriminant models, and differential components were screened out based on variable importance in the projection(VIP) value1. Then, high performance liquid chromatography(HPLC) was employed to detect the content changes of four components(ferulic acid, senkyunolide I, senkyunolide A and ligustilide) during the processing stages. ResultsThe differences of wine-processed CR at various stages were primarily reflected in color parameters L*(brightness value), a*(red-green value) and b*(yellow-blue value). Based on chromaticity differences, the color reference ranges were established for moderately processed CR, including L* of 46.75-48.24, a* of 5.37-6.07 and b* of 20.32-21.70. In odor analysis, DFA revealed significant differences among processing stages, and 11 odor markers were identified, with four differential markers(4-hydroxy-3-butylphthalide, isopropyl butyrate, L-limonene and 1-methoxyhexane) based on VIP values. HPLC results showed that there was no significant difference of the four components except for ligustilide in wine-processed CR at different stages. ConclusionThis study achieved rapid identification of wine-processed CR with different processing degrees by electronic sensory technology and differential component content detection, with discrimination accuracy rates of 92.4% and 93.272% for color and odor, respectively. This paper also established the reference ranges of main colorimetric parameters for wine-processed CR at different stages, and four differential components were screened out, providing a basis for standardizing the processing of wine-processed CR and establishing quality standards for this decoction pieces.
6.Knowledge and adaptive behavior of food delivery riders during high temperature and heat wave
QIU Yidan ; GU Shaohua ; WANG Aihong ; LU Beibei ; SHI Bijun ; WANG Yong ; ZHANG Dandan
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(1):93-97
Objective:
To investigate the status of heat illness, knowledge awareness and adaptive behaviors of heat wave knowledge among food delivery riders, so as to provide a basis for optimizing heat wave response measures for food delivery riders.
Methods:
In November 2022, food delivery riders from a large food delivery platform in Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province were selected as survey subjects using a cluster sampling method. A self-designed electronic questionnaire was used to select demographic information, work status, lifestyle behaviors and disease history, heat illness status, knowledge awareness and adaptive behaviors of heatwave.
Results:
A total of 911 questionnaires were distributed, and 830 valid questionnaires were recovered, resulting in a valid response rate of 91.11%. Among the respondents, 796 (95.90%) were male, and 818 (98.55%) worked full-time. The mean age was (27.75±8.00) years. A total of 470 respondents (56.63%) had a work tenure of less than 1 year. The primary working hours were 8-<12 hours, with 504 people accounting for 60.72%. There were 108 cases of heatstroke, with an occurrence rate of 13.01%. And 286 people reported heat-related symptoms, with an occurrence rate of 34.46%. The overall awareness rate of heat wave knowledge was 73.22%, while the awareness rate of heat warning signal classification was relatively low at 9.04%. The heat wave cognition score was (5.86±1.31) points. There were statistically significant differences in heat wave cognition scores among food delivery riders of different ages, educational levels, family annual income, work tenures, and work durations (all P<0.05). Regarding positive adaptive behaviors, the number of riders paying attention to weather forecasts and actively learning about preventive measures was higher (734 people each, accounting for 88.43%). Regarding negative adaptive behaviors, the number of riders who often drank ice-cold beverages was higher (509 people, accounting for 61.33%). The heat wave adaptive behavior score was (6.88±1.77) points. There were statistically significant differences in adaptive behavior scores among riders with different educational levels, family annual income, work tenures, and smoking frequency (all P<0.05).
Conclusions
The occurrence rates of heatstroke and heat-related symptoms among food delivery riders are relatively high. The knowledge awareness and adaptive behaviors regarding heat wave are at a moderate level. It is suggested to strengthen health education, reinforce risk cognition of heat wave, and promote positive adaptive behaviors among food delivery riders.
7.Diagnostic value of exhaled volatile organic compounds in pulmonary cystic fibrosis: A systematic review
Xiaoping YU ; Zhixia SU ; Kai YAN ; Taining SHA ; Yuhang HE ; Yanyan ZHANG ; Yujian TAO ; Hong GUO ; Guangyu LU ; Weijuan GONG
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2025;32(02):223-229
Objective To explore the diagnostic value of exhaled volatile organic compounds (VOCs) for cystic fibrosis (CF). Methods A systematic search was conducted in PubMed, EMbase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, CNKI, Wanfang, VIP, and SinoMed databases up to August 7, 2024. Studies that met the inclusion criteria were selected for data extraction and quality assessment. The quality of included studies was assessed by the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS), and the risk of bias and applicability of included prediction model studies were assessed by the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST). Results A total of 10 studies were included, among which 5 studies only identified specific exhaled VOCs in CF patients, and another 5 developed 7 CF risk prediction models based on the identification of VOCs in CF. The included studies reported a total of 75 exhaled VOCs, most of which belonged to the categories of acylcarnitines, aldehydes, acids, and esters. Most models (n=6, 85.7%) only included exhaled VOCs as predictive factors, and only one model included factors other than VOCs, including forced expiratory flow at 75% of forced vital capacity (FEF75) and modified Medical Research Council scale for the assessment of dyspnea (mMRC). The accuracy of the models ranged from 77% to 100%, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.771 to 0.988. None of the included studies provided information on the calibration of the models. The results of the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) showed that the overall bias risk of all predictive model studies was high, and the overall applicability was unclear. Conclusion The exhaled VOCs reported in the included studies showed significant heterogeneity, and more research is needed to explore specific compounds for CF. In addition, risk prediction models based on exhaled VOCs have certain value in the diagnosis of CF, but the overall bias risk is relatively high and needs further optimization from aspects such as model construction and validation.
8.Effects of coal mine dust on lung function in rats
LIU Yang ; LI Meng ; LU Liyuan ; WANG Ru ; YANG He ; ZHANG Huifang
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(1):96-101
Objective:
To explore the impacts of coal mine dust on lung function in rats, so as to provide the basis for the early prevention and treatment of coal worker's pneumoconiosis.
Methods:
Seventy-two SPF-grade 8-week-old male Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly divided into the coal dust group, the coal-silica dust group, the silica dust group and the control group. The rats in the first three groups of rats were administered 1 mL corresponding dust suspension into the lungs using non-exposure tracheal instillation, while the rats in the control group were administered 1 mL normal saline. Respiratory rate (f), forced vital capacity (FVC), peak expiratory flow (PEF) and dynamic pulmonary compliance (Cdyn) were measured at 1, 3 and 6 months after dust exposure. Lung tissues were collected to measure reactive oxygen species (ROS) and adenosine triphosphate (ATP) levels using corresponding ELISA kits and ATP assay kits, respectively. The relative mRNA expressions of peroxisome proliferators-activated receptor gamma coactivator 1-alpha (PGC-1α) and mitochondrial transcription factor A (TFAM) were detected using real-time fluorescent quantitative polymerase chain reaction assay. The relative protein expressions of PGC-1α and TFAM were detected using Western blotting.
Results:
There was no interaction between dust type and exposure duration on f (P>0.05), but there were interactions on FVC, PEF and Cdyn (all P<0.05). Compared with the control group at 6 months after dust exposure, the f of the rats in the silica dust group were increased, while the FVC and PEF of the rats in the coal-silica dust and silica dust groups were decreased, and Cdyn of the rats in the coal dust, coal-silica dust and silica dust groups were decreased (all P<0.05). There were interactions between dust type and exposure duration on ROS and ATP levels, the relative mRNA and protein expressions of PGC-1α and TFAM (all P<0.05). Compared with the control group at 3 and 6 months after dust exposure, the ROS levels in the rats in the coal dust, coal-silica dust and silica dust groups were increased, while the ATP levels, the relative mRNA and protein expressions of PGC-1α and TFAM were decreased (all P<0.05).
Conclusion
The lung function impairment in rats caused by different types of coal mine dust is related to PGC-1α-mediated mitochondrial biogenesis dysfunction, which leads to increased ROS levels, decreased ATP and TFAM levels.
9.Correlation between IL-6 , chemerin , lipid ratio and insulin resistance in obese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus
Yili LUO ; Han CAO ; Lu LIU ; Lijuan ZHANG
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2025;36(1):45-48
Objective To investigate the correlation between insulin resistance and interleukin-6 (IL-6), chemerin, total cholesterol (TC)/high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio, triglyceride (TG)/HDL-C ratio, low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C)/HDL-C ratio and insulin resistance in obese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and to provide scientific basis for T2DM prevention and control. Methods A total of 355 obese T2DM patients in Songjiang Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine were selected from January 2021 to December 2023. IL-6, chemerin and lipids were detected, and the assessment of insulin resistance was conducted through the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). Results Among the 355 obese T2DM patients, there were 280 cases of insulin resistance, with the incidence rate of 78.87%. The BMI, IL-6, chemerin, TC/HDL-C, LDL-C/HDL-C, and TG/HDL-C in the insulin resistance group were higher than those in the non-insulin resistance group (P<0.05). The above insulin resistant patients were divided into 4 subgroups by means of insulin resistance, and there were significant differences in BMI, IL-6, chemerin, and TG/HDL-C among the subgroups (P<0.05). IL-6, chemerin, and TG/HDL-C were positively correlated with HOMA-IR in obese T2DM patients (P<0.05), while TC/HDL-C and LDL-C/HDL-C had no significant correlation with HOMA-IR (P>0.05). BMI, IL-6, chemerin, and TG/HDL-C were all influencing factors of insulin resistance in obese T2DM patients (P<0.05). Conclusion IL-6, chemerin and TG/HDL-C are correlated with insulin resistance in obese patients with T2DM and are influencing factors for the occurrence of insulin resistance.
10.Epidemic characteristics and prediction model analysis of chickenpox in Urumqi in 2014-2019
Zhimeng WANG ; Weiyi FANG ; Yaoqin LU ; Tudi ZULIPIKAER ; Wei CHEN ; Yilihamu SENAWAER ; Kailun ZHANG
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2025;36(1):53-56
Objective To construct an optimal prediction model of chickenpox in Urumqi, and to provide reference for formulating the prevention and control strategies of chickenpox. Methods The multivariate autoregressive moving average model (ARIMAX) and random forest model (RF) were established based on the monthly incidence of chickenpox in Urumqi from 2014 to 2018, and the monthly incidence of chickenpox in 2019 was used to test the models and evaluate their prediction effect. The prediction performance of the two models was compared, and the best model was selected to predict the incidence of chickenpox in Urumqi. Results The incidence of chickenpox in Urumqi showed a regular bimodal distribution with obvious seasonality, and it showed a slow upward trend from July 2014 to December 2019. The fitting model was ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,1)12, the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of ARIMAX model training set were 1.29 and 0.95, respectively, and the RMSE and MAE of the test set were 1.88 and 1.44, respectively. The training set RMSE and MAE of RF model were 1.56 and 1.56, respectively, and the test set RMSE and MAE were 4.83 and 3.96, respectively. Conclusion The performance of ARIMAX model is better than that of RF model, which can better predict the incidence trend of chickenpox in Urumqi. It is necessary to optimize the prediction model according to the actual situation and provide scientific guidance for the prevention and control of chickenpox.


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