Objective To compare five time series models and predict the monthly incidence of bacillary dysentery in Qinghai Province in 2024,and provide reference for the prevention and control.Methods The epidemic charac-teristics of bacterial dysentery in Qinghai Province from 2014 to 2023 were analyzed.R4.3.1 software was used for establishing seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model,Holt-Winters triple exponential smoothing(Holt Winters)model,exponential smoothing(ETS)model,neural network autoregression(NNAR)model,and trigonometric seasonality,Box-Cox transformation,ARMA errors,trend and seasonal components(TBATS)model.Fitting effect of the models was analyzed and accuracy was compared.Results From 2014 to 2023,a total of 5 833 cases of bacterial dysentery were reported in Qinghai Province,without deaths,male to fe-male ratio being 1.23∶1.The highest incidence was reported in 2016(15.45 per 100 000 people),and the lowest in-cidence was reported in 2023(3.68 per 100 000 people).Incidence increased from 2014 to 2016,then decreased,showing an obvious overall downward trend.Case number in＜5 years age group was the highest,accounting for 29.76％of the total cases(n=1 736).Regarding population distribution,the top three were children in childcare institutions and scattered children(35.56％),farmers(24.65％),and students(12.62％).Except the additive Holt-Winters model,the predicted trends of the other four models were consistent with actuality.The ETS model had the best fitting effect,with a relatively balanced overall performance(training set:MAE=0.13,RMSE=0.21,MAPE=19.55％;testing set:MAE=0.11,RMSE=0.16,MAPE=28.66％).It is recommended to pre-dict the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Qinghai Province based on ETS model.Conclusion From 2014 to 2023,bacterial dysentery in Qinghai Province showed a downward trend,with the peak of the epidemic from June to Au-gust.Preschool and scattered children were high-risk groups.Among the five prediction models,ETS model has the best fitting effect,and can be used to predict the incidence of bacillary dysentery.

Lung cancer poses a serious threat to global public health security.Chemotherapy,as the main strategy for cancer treatment,faces challenges such as high toxicity and drug resistance.Anticancer peptides have the potential of being developed into new anticancer drugs due to their advantages of broad-spectrum anticancer activity,rapid action,and difficulty in generating drug resistance,but they also face shortcomings such as weak activity and strong toxic side effects.The weakly acidic microenvironment of tumors(pH 6.5-6.8)provides a good idea for the design of anticancer peptides of high-efficiency and low-toxicity.Previously,we designed the acid-sensitive antibacterial peptide pHly-1 using the wolf spider(Lycosa singoriensis)toxin Lycosin-Ⅰ as a template.In this study,we found that pHly-1 also had acid-sensitive anticancer activity.Further alanine scanning analysis of pHly-1 was carried out,and we ob-tained a mutant pHTP-2 with better acid sensitivity,whose IC50(half maximal inhibitory concentration)against A549 cells was 15.68 μmol/L at pH 6.6 and was greater than 100 μmol/L at pH 7.4.At pH 6.6,pHTP-2 could act on various lung cancer cell lines and induce the death of A549 cells by rapid ly-sis;at pH 7.4,500 μmol/L pHTP-2 had weak toxicity to red blood cells(the hemolysis rate was ap-proximately 38％)and primary myocardial cells(the inhibition rate was 49.7％,with P＜0.05).Analy-sis of its charge,particle size,morphology,and secondary structure showed that at pH 6.6,the histidine in the sequence of pHTP-2 was protonated,increasing the positive charge(P＜0.01),decreasing the hy-drated particle size(P＜0.05)and forming an α-helical structure to induce membrane lysis of A549 cells.At pH 7.4,it was deprotonated,the positive charge decreases,a β-sheet structure was formed and self-aggregation occurred,limiting its effect on the A549 cell membrane and showing weak activity.In summary,pHTP-2 could respond to the weakly acidic microenvironment of tumors to exert selective cyto-toxic activity,effectively overcoming the shortcomings of anticancer peptides such as low efficiency and high toxicity.Our findings suggest that it is a high-quality lead molecule for anticancer drugs.

Objective To explore the effects of dodecanoylcarnitine(DA)and myristoleic acid(MA)on the function of mouse alveolar epithelial cell line MLE-12 and their underlying mechanisms.Methods An inflammatory model was established by stimulating MLE-12 cells with IL-4.The expression levels of DA,MA,and sphingosine-1-phosphate(S1P)in the cell supernatant were detected by ELISA.MLE-12 cells were separately intervened with DA and MA.RT-PCR and flow cytometry were used to detect the expression changes of inflammatory factors IL-6 and tumor necrosis factor-α(TNF-α)and the level of intracellular reactive oxygen species(ROS).Additionally,Western blot was performed to detect the expression of key proteins such as p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase(p-38 MAPK)and src homology 2 domain-containing phosphatase 1(SHP-1).To explore the role of S1PR2 in the effects of DA and MA,MLE-12 cells were pretreated with the S1PR2 inhibitor JTE-013,and the above experiments were repeated.Results IL-4 stimulation significantly upregulated the levels of DA,MA,and S1P in MLE-12 cells(P<0.05).DA/MA treatment groups exhibited significantly increased expression of IL-6 and TNF-α compared with the control group(P<0.05),along with elevated ROS levels(P<0.05).Western blot analysis revealed that DA/MA promoted SHP-1 dephosphorylation and phosphorylated p38 MAPK activation in MLE-12 cells.Notably,JTE-013 pre-treatment completely reversed these effects(P<0.05).Conclusion Asthma-related metabolites DA and MA exacerbate the inflammatory and oxidative stress responses of MLE-12 cells by activating the S1PR2 receptor,promoting the dephosphorylation of SHP-1 and the activation of the p-p38 MAPK pathway.This study reveals the core regulatory role of S1PR2 in this pathway as well.

Objective To explore the feasibility and corresponding implementation methods of constructing a sample resource bank based on individual-level data of completed clinical trials and using it to construct external controls for drug/device clinical trials.Methods Taking the pre-marketing clinical trial of transcatheter active valve replacement(TAVR)for the treatment of aortic valve stenosis as an example,the individual-level databases of multiple trials were standardized to form a sample bank.The original data of any trial in the sample bank were selected as the experimental group,and the remaining samples were selected as the control group.The potential confounding was handled by using the propensity score matching and stratification methods to clarify the process of constructing external controls based on the sample bank of individual-level data of clinical trials.Results This study included individual-level data of single-group trials of 4 TAVR devices,with a total of 569 subjects(59.2%male).The number of subjects in Trials 1 to 4 was 120,120,163,and 166,respectively.Propensity score matching enabled the matching of 113,117,125,and 147 subjects with comparable or similar characteristics from individual-level data from other trials,respectively,demonstrating a high matching success rate.The PS score distribution plot after stratification showed that the proportions of subjects in the experimental and control groups in strata 1 to 5 in scheme 1 were 4/103,11/103,22/92,32/87,and 51/64,respectively.For all constructed external controlled trials,a certain number of control samples with similar baseline characteristics to the experimental groups were distributed within each propensity score stratum.The results of the simulation test also reflected the potential differences between different devices in the 12-month all-cause mortality rate.Conclusions The sample bank constructed with individual-level data from clinical trials,as a high-quality data source,can serve as a source of external control for single-arm trials in the same field,and as a useful supplement to the external control scenario of real-world evidence to support drug and device development.At the same time,targeted research on research methods and bias control measures in related fields is also needed.

Objective To compare five time series models and predict the monthly incidence of bacillary dysentery in Qinghai Province in 2024,and provide reference for the prevention and control.Methods The epidemic charac-teristics of bacterial dysentery in Qinghai Province from 2014 to 2023 were analyzed.R4.3.1 software was used for establishing seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model,Holt-Winters triple exponential smoothing(Holt Winters)model,exponential smoothing(ETS)model,neural network autoregression(NNAR)model,and trigonometric seasonality,Box-Cox transformation,ARMA errors,trend and seasonal components(TBATS)model.Fitting effect of the models was analyzed and accuracy was compared.Results From 2014 to 2023,a total of 5 833 cases of bacterial dysentery were reported in Qinghai Province,without deaths,male to fe-male ratio being 1.23∶1.The highest incidence was reported in 2016(15.45 per 100 000 people),and the lowest in-cidence was reported in 2023(3.68 per 100 000 people).Incidence increased from 2014 to 2016,then decreased,showing an obvious overall downward trend.Case number in＜5 years age group was the highest,accounting for 29.76％of the total cases(n=1 736).Regarding population distribution,the top three were children in childcare institutions and scattered children(35.56％),farmers(24.65％),and students(12.62％).Except the additive Holt-Winters model,the predicted trends of the other four models were consistent with actuality.The ETS model had the best fitting effect,with a relatively balanced overall performance(training set:MAE=0.13,RMSE=0.21,MAPE=19.55％;testing set:MAE=0.11,RMSE=0.16,MAPE=28.66％).It is recommended to pre-dict the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Qinghai Province based on ETS model.Conclusion From 2014 to 2023,bacterial dysentery in Qinghai Province showed a downward trend,with the peak of the epidemic from June to Au-gust.Preschool and scattered children were high-risk groups.Among the five prediction models,ETS model has the best fitting effect,and can be used to predict the incidence of bacillary dysentery.

Lung cancer poses a serious threat to global public health security.Chemotherapy,as the main strategy for cancer treatment,faces challenges such as high toxicity and drug resistance.Anticancer peptides have the potential of being developed into new anticancer drugs due to their advantages of broad-spectrum anticancer activity,rapid action,and difficulty in generating drug resistance,but they also face shortcomings such as weak activity and strong toxic side effects.The weakly acidic microenvironment of tumors(pH 6.5-6.8)provides a good idea for the design of anticancer peptides of high-efficiency and low-toxicity.Previously,we designed the acid-sensitive antibacterial peptide pHly-1 using the wolf spider(Lycosa singoriensis)toxin Lycosin-Ⅰ as a template.In this study,we found that pHly-1 also had acid-sensitive anticancer activity.Further alanine scanning analysis of pHly-1 was carried out,and we ob-tained a mutant pHTP-2 with better acid sensitivity,whose IC50(half maximal inhibitory concentration)against A549 cells was 15.68 μmol/L at pH 6.6 and was greater than 100 μmol/L at pH 7.4.At pH 6.6,pHTP-2 could act on various lung cancer cell lines and induce the death of A549 cells by rapid ly-sis;at pH 7.4,500 μmol/L pHTP-2 had weak toxicity to red blood cells(the hemolysis rate was ap-proximately 38％)and primary myocardial cells(the inhibition rate was 49.7％,with P＜0.05).Analy-sis of its charge,particle size,morphology,and secondary structure showed that at pH 6.6,the histidine in the sequence of pHTP-2 was protonated,increasing the positive charge(P＜0.01),decreasing the hy-drated particle size(P＜0.05)and forming an α-helical structure to induce membrane lysis of A549 cells.At pH 7.4,it was deprotonated,the positive charge decreases,a β-sheet structure was formed and self-aggregation occurred,limiting its effect on the A549 cell membrane and showing weak activity.In summary,pHTP-2 could respond to the weakly acidic microenvironment of tumors to exert selective cyto-toxic activity,effectively overcoming the shortcomings of anticancer peptides such as low efficiency and high toxicity.Our findings suggest that it is a high-quality lead molecule for anticancer drugs.

AIM To study the chemical constituents from Tetrastigma hemsleyanum Diels et Gilg and their antitumor activity in vitro.METHODS Silica gel,ODS,Sephadex LH-20 and semi-preparative HPLC were used for isolation and purification,then the structures of obtained compounds were identified by physicochemical properties and spectral data.The antitumor activity in vitro was determined by MTT mothod.RESULTS Twenty-eight compounds were isolated and identified as triphyllin A(1),eruberin B(2),(2S,4R)-5,7-dihydroxy-4,4'-dimethyl-6,8-dimethyl-flavan-5-O-β-D-6-acetylglucopyranoside-7-O-β-D-glucopyranoside(3),eruberin A(4),abacopterin Ⅰ(5),matteucinol(6),homoerodictyol(7),(2S)-5,3',4'-trihydroxy-7-methoxy-flavanone(8),(2S)-5,2',5'-trihydroxy-7-methoxyflavanone(9),galinsonside B(10),quercetin-3-O-β-D-glucopyranoside(11),kaempferol 3-O-robinobioside(12),rutin(13),geniposide(14),jasminoside A(15),β-sitostenone(16),sitosterol palmitate(17),β-sitosterol(18),ursolic acid(19),hyptadienic acid(20),3,4-dihydroxybenzoic acid(21),3,4-dimethoxybenzoic acid(22),gallic acid(23),dibutylphthalate(24),bis-(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate(25),9-nonadecenoic acid(26),triacylglycerol(27),crocin Ⅰ(28).The IC50 values of compound 1 for human gastric adenocarcinoma cells BGC-823 and human colon cancer cells HCT-116 were(22.07±0.38),(20.67±0.11)μmol/L,respectively.The IC50 value of compound 9 for BGC-823 cells was(21.58±0.05)μmol/L,and the IC50 value of compound 4 for HCT-116 cells was(16.67±0.36)μmol/L.CONCLUSION Compounds 1-10,14-15 and 28 are first isolated from Tetrastigma genus.Compounds 1,4,9 have weak antitumor activity in vitro.

BACKGROUND:Estrogen receptor α can act as an upstream protein to regulate the expression and phosphorylation level of adenosine monophosphate-activated protein kinase(AMPK).Activation of the estrogen receptor α-AMPK signaling pathway promotes osteogenic proliferation and differentiation.OBJECTIVE:To explore the molecular mechanism of estrogen receptor α regulating AMPK and its effect on osteoblast proliferation and differentiation at osteoblast cell line and molecular biology levels.METHODS:(1)The passaged MC3T3-E1 mouse embryonic osteoblasts were divided into three groups:blank control group,mock group(transfected with pCDNA3.1 control plasmid),and estrogen receptor α group(transfected with pCDNA3.1-estrogen receptor α overexpression plasmid),and RT-qPCR and western blot methods were used to detect the hepatic kinase B1,CaMKKβ,and AMPKα1 mRNA,protein and phosphorylation levels.(2)ChIP-qPCR was used to demonstrate that estrogen receptor α interacts with the hepatic kinase B1 promoter.Dual luciferase assay was used to demonstrate that estrogen receptorα interacts with the hepatic kinase B1 promoter region to activate its transcriptional expression.(3)The cells were divided into three groups:mock+shNC group,estrogen receptor α+shNC group,and estrogen receptor α+shLKB1 group.Changes in the expression levels of hepatic kinase B1,phosphorylated hepatic kinase B1,and phosphorylated AMPKα1 proteins in the cells were detected by western blot.(4)The cells were divided into four groups:mock group,estrogen receptor α group,estrogen receptor α+5 μmol/L Compound C(AMPK inhibitor)group,and estrogen receptor α+10 μmol/L Compound C group.The expression of proteins related to the AMPK signaling pathway and related to osteogenesis and osteoinductivity were detected by western blot method.Cells were transfected for 24 hours and then subjected to osteogenic induction for 14 days.Alkaline phosphatase staining was performed and cell viability in each group was detected.Mineralized nodule formation was detected by alizarin red staining at 21 days of osteogenic induction.(5)The cells were transfected and pretreated with different concentrations of AMPK inhibitor in corresponding groups,and cell viability was detected by cell counting kit 8.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)Estrogen receptor α activates the AMPK signaling pathway in MC3T3-E1 cells.(2)Estrogen receptor α promotes liver kinase B1 transcription and mediates AMPK signaling pathway activation.(3)Estrogen receptor α promotes the proliferation and differentiation of MC3T3-E1 cells by activating the AMPK signaling pathway,and the expression of AMPKα1,p-AMPKα,osteoprotegerin,osteopontin,and Runx2 proteins was down-regulated under the intervention of AMPK inhibitor,and the viability of osteoblasts was decreased.(4)To conclude,estrogen receptor α activates the AMPK signaling pathway by acting on liver kinase B1 promoter,promotes osteoblast proliferation and osteogenic differentiation,and prevents osteoporosis.

Objective:To explore the application strategies and clinical effects of superior gluteal artery perforator tissue flaps in repairing stage Ⅳ pressure ulcers in the sacrococcygeal region.Methods:This study was a retrospective observational study. From July 2019 to April 2024, 89 patients with stage Ⅳ pressure ulcers in the sacrococcygeal region who met the inclusion criteria were admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, including 59 males and 30 females, aged 21 to 84 years. There were 89 sacrococcygeal pressure ulcers, with an area of 5.0 cm×4.0 cm-21.0 cm×21.0 cm after debridement. According to the shape, size, and depth of the wounds after debridement, combined with the elasticity and texture of the skin around the wounds, and the principle of minimizing damage to the donor area, the appropriate forms of superior gluteal artery perforator tissue flaps were cut for wound repair in the following three conditions. (1) For wounds with a round shape, an area of 5.0 cm×5.0 cm-21.0 cm×21.0 cm, and a depth of 1.0-3.5 cm, the superior gluteal artery perforator propeller flap or myocutaneous flap, bilobed superior gluteal artery perforator relay flap, and bilateral superior gluteal artery perforator rotational flap were used. (2) For wounds with an oval shape, an area of 5.0 cm×4.0 cm-18.5 cm×10.5 cm, and a depth of 1.0-3.0 cm, the superior gluteal artery perforator propeller flap or myocutaneous flap, unilateral superior gluteal artery perforator propeller flap combined with contralateral superior gluteal artery perforator V-Y advanced flap or keystone flap were used. (3) For wounds with a fusiformis shape, an area of 7.0 cm×4.0 cm-17.5 cm×6.0 cm, and a depth of 1.5-5.0 cm, the unilateral or bilateral superior gluteal artery perforator V-Y advanced flap, superior gluteal artery perforator keystone flap, or superior gluteal artery perforator keystone flap combined with gluteus maximus muscle flap were used. In this group of patients, a total of 40 superior gluteal artery perforator propeller flaps (with an resection area of 11.0 cm×6.0 cm-17.0 cm×11.0 cm), 22 superior gluteal artery perforator propeller myocutaneous flaps (with an resection area of 10.0 cm×5.0 cm-14.0 cm×8.0 cm), 7 bilobed superior gluteal artery perforator relay flaps (with a main flap resection area of 5.5 cm×5.5 cm-18.0 cm×11.5 cm and a side flap resection area of 4.5 cm×3.0 cm-11.0 cm×6.5 cm), 5 bilateral superior gluteal artery perforator rotational flaps (with a total resection area of 20.0 cm×16.0 cm-26.0 cm×21.0 cm on both sides), 14 superior gluteal artery perforator V-Y advanced flaps (with an resection area of 12.0 cm×10.0 cm-18.0 cm×18.0 cm), 13 superior gluteal artery perforator keystone flaps (with an resection area of 13.0 cm×6.5 cm-19.0 cm×18.0 cm), and 3 gluteus maximus muscle flaps (with an resection area of 8.0 cm×3.0 cm-15.0 cm×4.5 cm). The donor area wounds were all directly sutured. The survival of tissue flaps was observed and the incidence rate of delayed wound healing in the reception area was calculated, and wound healing in the donor area was observed. The appearance and texture of tissue flaps and recurrence of pressure ulcers were followed up.Results:After surgery, all bilateral superior gluteal artery perforator rotational flaps, superior gluteal artery perforator V-Y advanced flaps, superior gluteal artery perforator keystone flaps, and gluteus maximus muscle flaps survived well. There were 6 cases of delayed wound healing in the reception area after surgery, with an incidence rate of 6.7% (6/89). Two patients had incision dehiscence in the donor area wounds due to postoperative bleeding, the wounds healed after debridement, vacuum sealing drainage, and dressing change. The wounds in the donor area of the remaining patients healed well. Six patients were lost to follow-up. Eighty-three patients were followed up for 3-48 months, of whom 4 patients died. Among the remaining 79 patients, 3 cases had pressure ulcers recur due to improper nursing, while the rest of the patients had tissue flaps with good appearance and soft texture and no recurrence of pressure ulcers.Conclusions:Based on the characteristics of wound shape, size, and depth after debridement of stage Ⅳ pressure ulcers in the sacrococcygeal region, individualized selection of flap, myocutaneous flap, or a combination of flap and gluteus maximus muscle flap based on the perforating branch of the superior gluteal artery perforator can achieve good clinical repair results. The postoperative tissue flap survived well, with a good appearance, soft texture, and less recurrence of pressure ulcers.

Objective To explore the feasibility and corresponding implementation methods of constructing a sample resource bank based on individual-level data of completed clinical trials and using it to construct external controls for drug/device clinical trials.Methods Taking the pre-marketing clinical trial of transcatheter active valve replacement(TAVR)for the treatment of aortic valve stenosis as an example,the individual-level databases of multiple trials were standardized to form a sample bank.The original data of any trial in the sample bank were selected as the experimental group,and the remaining samples were selected as the control group.The potential confounding was handled by using the propensity score matching and stratification methods to clarify the process of constructing external controls based on the sample bank of individual-level data of clinical trials.Results This study included individual-level data of single-group trials of 4 TAVR devices,with a total of 569 subjects(59.2%male).The number of subjects in Trials 1 to 4 was 120,120,163,and 166,respectively.Propensity score matching enabled the matching of 113,117,125,and 147 subjects with comparable or similar characteristics from individual-level data from other trials,respectively,demonstrating a high matching success rate.The PS score distribution plot after stratification showed that the proportions of subjects in the experimental and control groups in strata 1 to 5 in scheme 1 were 4/103,11/103,22/92,32/87,and 51/64,respectively.For all constructed external controlled trials,a certain number of control samples with similar baseline characteristics to the experimental groups were distributed within each propensity score stratum.The results of the simulation test also reflected the potential differences between different devices in the 12-month all-cause mortality rate.Conclusions The sample bank constructed with individual-level data from clinical trials,as a high-quality data source,can serve as a source of external control for single-arm trials in the same field,and as a useful supplement to the external control scenario of real-world evidence to support drug and device development.At the same time,targeted research on research methods and bias control measures in related fields is also needed.