Objective To compare five time series models and predict the monthly incidence of bacillary dysentery in Qinghai Province in 2024,and provide reference for the prevention and control.Methods The epidemic charac-teristics of bacterial dysentery in Qinghai Province from 2014 to 2023 were analyzed.R4.3.1 software was used for establishing seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model,Holt-Winters triple exponential smoothing(Holt Winters)model,exponential smoothing(ETS)model,neural network autoregression(NNAR)model,and trigonometric seasonality,Box-Cox transformation,ARMA errors,trend and seasonal components(TBATS)model.Fitting effect of the models was analyzed and accuracy was compared.Results From 2014 to 2023,a total of 5 833 cases of bacterial dysentery were reported in Qinghai Province,without deaths,male to fe-male ratio being 1.23∶1.The highest incidence was reported in 2016(15.45 per 100 000 people),and the lowest in-cidence was reported in 2023(3.68 per 100 000 people).Incidence increased from 2014 to 2016,then decreased,showing an obvious overall downward trend.Case number in＜5 years age group was the highest,accounting for 29.76％of the total cases(n=1 736).Regarding population distribution,the top three were children in childcare institutions and scattered children(35.56％),farmers(24.65％),and students(12.62％).Except the additive Holt-Winters model,the predicted trends of the other four models were consistent with actuality.The ETS model had the best fitting effect,with a relatively balanced overall performance(training set:MAE=0.13,RMSE=0.21,MAPE=19.55％;testing set:MAE=0.11,RMSE=0.16,MAPE=28.66％).It is recommended to pre-dict the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Qinghai Province based on ETS model.Conclusion From 2014 to 2023,bacterial dysentery in Qinghai Province showed a downward trend,with the peak of the epidemic from June to Au-gust.Preschool and scattered children were high-risk groups.Among the five prediction models,ETS model has the best fitting effect,and can be used to predict the incidence of bacillary dysentery.

Objective To compare five time series models and predict the monthly incidence of bacillary dysentery in Qinghai Province in 2024,and provide reference for the prevention and control.Methods The epidemic charac-teristics of bacterial dysentery in Qinghai Province from 2014 to 2023 were analyzed.R4.3.1 software was used for establishing seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model,Holt-Winters triple exponential smoothing(Holt Winters)model,exponential smoothing(ETS)model,neural network autoregression(NNAR)model,and trigonometric seasonality,Box-Cox transformation,ARMA errors,trend and seasonal components(TBATS)model.Fitting effect of the models was analyzed and accuracy was compared.Results From 2014 to 2023,a total of 5 833 cases of bacterial dysentery were reported in Qinghai Province,without deaths,male to fe-male ratio being 1.23∶1.The highest incidence was reported in 2016(15.45 per 100 000 people),and the lowest in-cidence was reported in 2023(3.68 per 100 000 people).Incidence increased from 2014 to 2016,then decreased,showing an obvious overall downward trend.Case number in＜5 years age group was the highest,accounting for 29.76％of the total cases(n=1 736).Regarding population distribution,the top three were children in childcare institutions and scattered children(35.56％),farmers(24.65％),and students(12.62％).Except the additive Holt-Winters model,the predicted trends of the other four models were consistent with actuality.The ETS model had the best fitting effect,with a relatively balanced overall performance(training set:MAE=0.13,RMSE=0.21,MAPE=19.55％;testing set:MAE=0.11,RMSE=0.16,MAPE=28.66％).It is recommended to pre-dict the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Qinghai Province based on ETS model.Conclusion From 2014 to 2023,bacterial dysentery in Qinghai Province showed a downward trend,with the peak of the epidemic from June to Au-gust.Preschool and scattered children were high-risk groups.Among the five prediction models,ETS model has the best fitting effect,and can be used to predict the incidence of bacillary dysentery.

Objective: To compare the differences between CAS risk model and CHA₂DS₂-VASc risk score in predicting all cause death, thromboembolic events, major bleeding events and composite endpoint in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study. From the China Atrial Fibrillation Registry cohort study, the patients with atrial fibrillation who were>18 years old were randomly divided into CAS risk score group and CHA₂DS₂-VASc risk score group respectively. According to the anticoagulant status at baseline and follow-up, patients in the 2 groups who complied with the scoring specifications for anticoagulation were selected for inclusion in this study. Baseline information such as age and gender in the two groups were collected and compared. Follow-up was performed periodically to collect information on anticoagulant therapy and endpoints. The endpoints were all-cause death, thromboembolism events and major bleeding, the composite endpoint events were all-cause death and thromboembolism events. The incidence of endpoints in CAS group and CHA₂DS₂-VASc group was analyzed, and multivariate Cox proportional risk model was used to analyze whether the incidence of the endpoints was statistically different between the two groups. Results: A total of 5 206 patients with AF were enrolled, average aged (63.6±12.2) years, and 2092 (40.2%) women. There were 2 447 cases (47.0%) in CAS risk score group and 2 759 cases (53.0%) in CHA₂DS₂-VASc risk score group. In the clinical baseline data of the two groups, the proportion of left ventricular ejection fraction<55%, non-paroxysmal atrial fibrillation, oral warfarin and HAS BLED score in the CAS group were lower than those in the CHA₂DS₂-VASc group, while the proportion of previous diabetes history and history of antiplatelet drugs in the CAS group was higher than that in the CHA₂DS₂-VASc group, and there was no statistical difference in other baseline data. Patients were followed up for (82.8±40.8) months. In CAS risk score group, 225(9.2%) had all-cause death, 186 (7.6%) had thromboembolic events, 81(3.3%) had major bleeding, and 368 (15.0%) had composite endpoint. In CHA₂DS₂-VASc risk score group, 261(9.5%) had all-cause death 209(7.6%) had thromboembolic events, 112(4.1%) had major bleeding, and 424 (15.4%) had composite endpoint. There were no significant differences in the occurrence of all-cause death, thromboembolic events, major bleeding and composite endpoint between anticoagulation in CAS risk score group and anticoagulation in CHA₂DS₂-VASc risk score group (log-rank P =0.643, 0.904, 0.126, 0.599, respectively). Compared with CAS risk score, multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models showed no significant differences for all-cause death, thromboembolic events, major bleeding and composite endpoint between the two groups with HR(95%CI) 0.95(0.80-1.14), 1.00(0.82-1.22), 0.83(0.62-1.10), 0.96(0.84-1.11), respectively. All P>0.05. Conclusions: There were no significant differences between CAS risk model and CHA₂DS₂-VASc risk score in predicting all-cause death, thromboembolic events, and major bleeding events in Chinese patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation.
Adolescent ; Anticoagulants ; Atrial Fibrillation/drug therapy* ; Cohort Studies ; Female ; Hemorrhage/complications* ; Humans ; Male ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk Assessment ; Stroke/epidemiology* ; Stroke Volume ; Thromboembolism/etiology* ; Ventricular Function, Left

The advancement of the next generation sequencing (NGS) technology has promoted the development of ancient DNA research. Ancient DNA has made outstanding contributions in various fields such as human origin, animal evolution, etc. How to effectively extract and mine the genetic information from fossil and sub-fossil remains excavated from specific locations is a prerequisite for optimizing their important roles in many fields. In this study, we correlated the two main indicators of DNA damage (terminal base replacement rate, average fragment length) with the possible factors such as the burial time, geological epochs, tissue types, and sequencing library construction methods. The results show that the end base replacement rate of ancient DNA from Northeastern China is positively correlated with the water content of the environment and the ages of the samples. Among samples of different geological epochs, ancient DNA end base replacement rates have significant differences. On the contrary, different tissue types of the remains have no significant effects on the end base replacement rate of ancient DNA. The average fragment size of the molecules has no obvious correlation with the factors mentioned above. The results provide both solid data for investigating the characteristics of ancient DNA from specimens collected in Northeastern China, and valuable information for collecting appropriate samples from different geographical locations and the downstream storage before wet lab procedures after excavation.

Objective: To study the therapeutic effect of Huoxue Tongluo Decoction (HXTLD) on erectile dysfunction caused by ischemic stroke and identify the mechanisms involved. Methods: Network pharmacology was used to predict the key active ingredients and targets of HXTLD. Surgical methods were used to create a rat model of ischemic stroke. The rats were then given a suspension of HXTLD by ig administration. Erectile function was evaluated by Apomorphine (APO) induction. Real-time fluorescence quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (Real-time PCR) and Western blotting were used to detect the expression of related mRNAs and proteins in rat penile corpus cavernous tissue and brain tissue. Hematoxylin & Eosin (HE) staining was used to investigate structural changes in the penile cavernous tissue. Results: Network pharmacology showed that tumor necrosis factor (TNF), nitric oxide synthase 3 (eNOS), and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) were the key targets of HXTLD in the treatment of erectile dysfunction caused by ischemic stroke. Experimental studies showed that HXTLD improved erectile dysfunction caused by ischemic stroke. HE results showed that HXTLD improved the structure of the corpus cavernosa. HXTLD also inhibited the expression of TNF and VEGF proteins in penile tissue (P < 0.05) and enhanced the expression of eNOS protein in penile tissue (P < 0.05). Conclusion: HXTLD improved the erectile function of rats with erectile dysfunction caused by ischemic stroke by regulating the mRNA and protein levels of TNF, eNOS and VEGF.

Huosu Yangwei (HSYW) Formula is a traditioanl Chinese herbal medicine that has been extensively used to treat chronic atrophic gastritis, precancerous lesions of gastric cancer and advanced gastric cancer. However, the effective compounds of HSYW and its related anti-tumor mechanisms are not completely understood. In the current study, 160 ingredients of HSYW were identified and 64 effective compounds were screened by the ADMET evaluation. Furthermore, 64 effective compounds and 2579 potential targets were mapped based on public databases. Animal experiments demonstrated that HSYW significantly inhibited tumor growth in vivo. Transcriptional profiles revealed that 81 mRNAs were differentially expressed in HSYW-treated N87-bearing Balb/c mice. Network pharmacology and PPI network showed that 12 core genes acted as potential markers to evaluate the curative effects of HSYW. Bioinformatics and qRT-PCR results suggested that HSYW might regulate the mRNA expression of DNAJB4, CALD, AKR1C1, CST1, CASP1, PREX1, SOCS3 and PRDM1 against tumor growth in N87-bearing Balb/c mice.
Animals ; Biomarkers ; China ; Drugs, Chinese Herbal ; Mice ; Network Pharmacology ; Stomach Neoplasms/genetics*

Isatidis Radix is the dried root of the Isatis indigotica, with pharmacological effects such as heat-clearing and detoxification, cooling blood and pharyngeal relief, antibacterial and anti-inflammatory effects. It is often used clinically to prevent and treat influenza and other diseases. In this paper, relevant domestic and foreign literatures in recent years were summarized, and it was found that Isatidis Radix lignans, indole alkaloids, polysaccharides, etc. were the main active components against influenza virus. Then its pharmacological effects and the mechanism of action were reviewed, providing a basis for in-depth research on the antiviral effect of Isatidis Radix.
Antiviral Agents/pharmacology* ; Drugs, Chinese Herbal ; Isatis ; Orthomyxoviridae ; Plant Roots ; Polysaccharides

Aim To investigate the role and potential mechanism of transcriptional co-activator p300 in atrial fibrosis caused by high hydrostatic pressure. Methods The left atrial appendage tissues of humans in three groups of sinus rhythm, atrial fibrillation (AF), hypertension and AF were collected. The expressions of p300 protein and TGF-β/Smad3 signaling pathway and fibrotic factors as type I/III collagen Alphal chain (Col-lAl/Col-3Al), matrix metalloproteinase 2/9 (MMP-2/9) were tested by Western blot. Mouse atrial appendage fibroblasts were cultured under hydrostatic pressures of 0, 20 and 40 mmHg. The fibroblasts cultured under 40 mmHg pressure were treated with curcumin and p300 interference RNA. Western blot was used to test changes in the expression of p300 and the above fibrosis indicators. CCK-8 method was used to test changes of cell proliferation. Results The expressions of p300 and TGF-β/Smad3 signaling pathway proteins and fibrotic factors in AF group and hypertension combined with AF group were significantly higher than those in sinus rhythm group (P < 0. 05). 40 mmHg high hydrostatic pressure stimulation in vitro could increase the expression of p300 and fibrotic factors in fibroblasts (P < 0. 0 5) and enhance the proliferation ability (P < 0. 05). Both curcumin and p300 interfering RNA could reverse the increased expression of p300 and fibrotic factors (P < 0. 05) and decrease cell proliferation (P < 0. 05) induced by hydrostatic pressure. Conclusions High hydrostatic pressure can induce atrial fibrosis, which involves the participation of p300 in this process by regulating the TGF-β/Smad3 signaling pathway.