1.Analysis of the disease burden of hypertensive heart disease among individuals aged≥60 years globally and in China from 1990 to 2021
Jiali LI ; Chunzhen REN ; Fan LIU ; Keyan WANG ; Zhijiang BI ; Xiaoxiao ZHAO ; Lixin KE ; Haibo WANG ; Wenxi PENG ; Zhifei WANG ; Qiang ZHANG ; Peng XU ; Yingdong LI ; Xiuxiu DENG ; Xinke ZHAO ; Cuncun LU
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2026;33(02):281-290
Objective To systematically analyze the characteristics of the disease burden of hypertensive heart disease (HHD) in the elderly (≥60 years) globally and in China from 1990 to 2021, and to predict its future trends from 2022 to 2040, with the aim of providing data support for optimizing comprehensive prevention and control strategies for HHD. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, the number of prevalent cases and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of HHD in the elderly were extracted for the world, China, and five regions categorized by sociodemographic index (SDI). Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the temporal trends of age-standardized prevalence rate and age-standardized DALYs rate of HHD in the elderly. A three-factor decomposition method was applied to evaluate the relative contributions of aging, population growth, and epidemiological changes to the variations in the elderly HHD burden. Additionally, a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the elderly HHD burden from 2022 to 2040. Results In 2021, the number of prevalent elderly HHD cases reached 10 283 000 globally and 3 412 400 in China, representing increases of 179.20% and 159.20% respectively, compared with 1990. The DALYs of elderly HHD were 18 812 700 person-years globally and 4 731 400 person-years in China, rising by 76.08% and 29.45% respectively from 1990. Meanwhile, the growth rates of the number of prevalent cases and DALYs of elderly HHD varied across different SDI regions. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized prevalence rate of elderly HHD in China, as well as the age-standardized DALYs rate of elderly HHD both globally and in China, showed significant downward trends (all average annual percentage changes<0, all P<0.001). In 2021, the 70-74 years age group accounted for the highest proportion of prevalent cases and DALYs of elderly HHD, both globally and in China. Decomposition analysis revealed that population growth was the dominant factor driving the increase in the elderly HHD burden across all regions. The prediction model results indicated that the number of prevalent cases and DALYs of elderly HHD would continue to rise globally and in China from 2022 to 2040, with the growth rate of the elderly HHD burden in China between 2021 and 2040 expected to exceed the global average. Conclusion Over the past 32 years, although the age-standardized disease rates of elderly HHD have mainly shown a downward trend globally and in China, the absolute number of the disease burden has increased substantially. The projection model indicates a continued upward trajectory, with the growth rate in China higher than the global average. Therefore, there is an urgent need to implement precise prevention and control strategies to effectively mitigate the disease burden of elderly HHD.
2.Trend analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence among the elderly in Shanghai, 2014‒2023
Yu HUANG ; Lixin RAO ; Biao XU ; Qi ZHAO ; Xin SHEN
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(3):227-233
ObjectiveTo describe the epidemiological characteristics and trend of pulmonary tuberculosis among the elderly in Shanghai from 2014 to 2023, to estimate the incidence between 2024‒2025, so as to provide references for optimizing the prevention and control strategies of pulmonary tuberculosis for elderly in Shanghai. MethodsData of pulmonary tuberculosis patients aged ≥60 years in Shanghai registered in the Tuberculosis Registration and Management System of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 2014 to 2023 was derived to describe the demographic characteristics of the elderly patients with pulmonary tuberculosis, and to calculate the reported incidence rate and annual percentage change (APC) of pulmonary tuberculosis. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was constructed using monthly reported incidence data from January 2014 to June 2023, and data from July to December in 2023 were used to validate the model and predict the reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis among elderly in 2024 and 2025. ResultsA total of 19 208 elderly pulmonary tuberculosis patients were registered and reported in Shanghai from 2014 to 2023, with an average annual reported incidence rate of 35.04/100 000. The reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in elderly showed an overall decreasing trend, APC=-3.34% (t=-3.360,P=0.010). While, the proportion of elderly pulmonary tuberculosis patients showed a yearly increasing trend among the total registered and reported cases, APC=5.65% (t=10.820, P<0.001). The difference in the average annual reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in elderly was statistically significant in different regions (χ2=31.762, P=0.007), with the central urban areas(33.23/100 000) being lower than that in suburban areas (36.46/100 000), and the annual decreasing rate was faster in central urban area, APC=-4.88% (t=-4.838, P<0.001) and -2.76% (t=-2.811, P=0.023), respectively. The incidence rate was significantly higher in males than that in females (χ2=514.395, P<0.001). Additionally, the difference in reported incidence rate was statistically significant among different age groups(χ2=119.751,P<0.001), among which patients aged ≥80 years had the highest average annual incidence rate (59.69/100 000), and those aged ≤60 years had the lowest average annual incidence rate (28.57/100 000). Compared with the non-residential permanent elderly population (47.68/100 000), the average annual incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis among the elderly with household registration in Shanghai was lower (33.82/100 000) (χ2=24.295, P<0.001). The ARIMA (0,0,1) (0,1,1) 12 model was used to predict the incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis among the elderly in Shanghai in 2024 and 2025, and which was predicted to be 37.41/100 000 and 35.92/100 000, respectively. ConclusionThe reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis among the elderly in Shanghai showed an overall yearly downward trend from 2014 to 2023, but its proportion in the total number of reported pulmonary tuberculosis cases increased year by year. Prevention and control efforts should still not be slackened and emphasis should be placed on male, suburban and non-residential permanent elderly populations.
3.Mid- to long-term outcomes of median sternotomy ascending-descending thoracic aortic bypass grafting for complex aortic coarctation
Yongqiang JIN ; Lixin FAN ; Enrui ZHANG ; Xiaoya ZHANG ; Hui XUE ; Zhonghua XU ; Qingyu WU
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2025;32(07):963-967
Objective To investigate the mid- to long-term follow-up results of ascending aorta (AAO)-descending thoracic aorta (DTA) bypass grafting via median sternotomy incision for the treatment of complex aortic arch coarctation. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of patients with complex aortic arch coarctation who underwent AAO-DTA bypass grafting via median sternotomy incision at the First Hospital of Tsinghua University from August 2004 to May 2017. Results A total of 7 patients were enrolled, including 4 males and 3 females, aged (13.3±4.6) years, and weighted (40.2±12.2) kg. Six (85.7%) patients had concomitant upper limb hypertension. Four patients were aortic arch coarctation combined with intracardiac malformations, two were post-operative restenosis, and 1 was post-operative restenosis combined with intracardiac malformation. All patients underwent surgery under cardiopulmonary bypass. There were no perioperative deaths or major complications. The pre-operative upper-lower limb pressure difference was (39.3±19.2) mm Hg, which decreased to (2.9±2.7) mm Hg post-operatively (P<0.01). The follow-up period was (14.9±5.9) years. There were no long-term deaths or artificial graft-related complications. Except for one patient who still had mild hypertension, the blood pressure of the remaining patients returned to normal. Conclusion AAO-DTA bypass grafting via median sternotomy incision for the treatment of complex aortic arch coarctation can effectively reduce upper limb blood pressure and the upper-lower limb arterial pressure difference, has fewer complications, and demonstrates satisfactory mid- to long-term efficacy.
4.Introduction to Implementation Science Theories, Models, and Frameworks
Lixin SUN ; Enying GONG ; Yishu LIU ; Dan WU ; Chunyuan LI ; Shiyu LU ; Maoyi TIAN ; Qian LONG ; Dong XU ; Lijing YAN
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2025;16(5):1332-1343
Implementation Science is an interdisciplinary field dedicated to systematically studying how to effectively translate evidence-based research findings into practical application and implementation. In the health-related context, it focuses on enhancing the efficiency and quality of healthcare services, thereby facilitating the transition from scientific evidence to real-world practice. This article elaborates on Theories, Models, and Frameworks (TMF) within health-related Implementation Science, clarifying their basic concepts and classifications, and discussing their roles in guiding implementation processes. Furthermore, it reviews and prospects current research from three aspects: the constituent elements of TMF, their practical applications, and future directions. Five representative frameworks are emphasized, including the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR), the Practical Robust Implementation and Sustainability Model (PRISM), the Exploration, Preparation, Implementation, Sustainment (EPIS)framework, the Behavior Change Wheel (BCW), and the Normalization Process Theory (NPT). Additionally, resources such as the Dissemination & Implementation Models Webtool and the T-CaST tool are introduced to assist researchers in selecting appropriate TMFs based on project-specific needs.
5.Consistency of MSCT 3D processing technique and QCT in measuring BMD for lumbar vertebra
Xiangming LI ; Lixin ZHANG ; Weifeng WANG ; Yaqun KONG ; Chensi XU ; Wanbo ZHOU ; Shunsheng AI ; Lixiang SONG ; Yantao NIU
China Medical Equipment 2025;22(4):28-33
Objective:To study the consistency between post-processing bone mineral density(BMD)values of multi-slice spiral computed tomography(MSCT)scan and the BMD value of quantitative computed tomography(QCT)for lumbar vertebra,so as to explore the feasibility of utilizing MSCT scan-based post-processing BMD values for lumbar vertebra in clinical practice.Methods:The MSCT equipment and QCT equipment were respectively adopted to conduct imaging scan for the L2-L4 of lumber vertebra of QRM-ESP145 European Spine Phantom(ESP),and L2-L4 of lumbar vertebra of adult sheep,and L2-L4 of lumbar vertebra of adult volunteer.The L2-L4 of ESP lumber vertebra and L2-L4 of lumbar vertebra of adult sheep were scanned respectively MSCT and QCT for three times,so as to measure BMD values.The L2-L4 of lumbar vertebrae of volunteers were scanned respectively by the two methods for one time according to the standard of clinical examination,which were reconstructed by three times so as to obtain mean of them.The BMD values of QCT scan were set as control group,and the BMD values of MSCT scan were set as experiment group.The experiment group was further divided into experiment 1 group[two dimension(2D)regional volumetric BMD values of the lumbar vertebra]and experiment 2 group[three dimension(3D)global volumetric BMD post-processing of the lumbar vertebra]according to the reliability of experiment.Then,the consistency between the MSCT 3D post-processing BMD values of three groups and QCT-measured BMD values was compared and analyzed.Results:The MSCT 3D post-processing BMD values of L2-L4 of ESP lumbar vertebra of three groups were respectively(120.83±0.97),(199.57±0.54)and(119.19±1.04)mg/cm3,and that of L2-L4 of lumbar vertebra of adult sheep of three groups were respectively(414.89±1.72),(410.50±0.77)and(420.25±2.71)mg/cm3,and that of L2-L4 of lumbar vertebra of volunteer were respectively(141.22±0.09),(137.38±0.37)and(152.03±1.03)mg/cm3.There were not statistically significant differences in BMD values between MSCT examination and QCT examination(P>0.05).Conclusion:MSCT 3D post-processing BMD values on lumbar vertebra has high consistency with that of QCT measurements,which post-processing technique can replace QCT to conduct BMD examination,and reduce unnecessary radiation exposure and examination costs for patients.
6.Sequent optimization of AI-assisted compressive sensing techniques in brain 3D-TOF-MRA
Kai NING ; Hui XU ; Xiangming LI ; Lixin ZHANG ; Weifeng WANG ; Ying YUAN
China Medical Equipment 2025;22(10):15-19
Objective:To explore the influence of artificial intelligence(AI)-assisted compressive sensing(ACS)technique with different acceleration factors on the image quality and scan time of three dimensional time-of-flight magnetic resonance angiography(3D-TOF-MRA)for brain.Methods:Thirty participants who underwent brain magnetic resonance imaging(MRI)at Tongzhou Branch of Beijing Friendship Hospital were recruited.All subjects underwent imaging scans about four different parameters:a non-accelerated technique(control group),ACS technique integrated with acceleration factor of 4.03(ACS4 group),ACS technique integrated with acceleration factor of 5.02(ACS5 group),and ACS technique integrated with acceleration factor of 6.06(ACS6 group).The image clarity,ranking of imaging capabilities of distal branch blood vessels and the ratio of pseudo-stenosis were qualitatively analyzed.The signal-to-noise ratio(SNR),contrast-to-noise ratio(CNR),edge sharpness,and scan time were quantitatively analyzed.Results:There was not difference in vessel clarity among three ACS groups at the proximal and middle intracranial segments.For distal segments of blood vessel,the ACS4 group[3.0(3.0,3.0)]and ACS5 group[3.0(3.0,3.0)]were better than ACS6[2.5(2.0,3.0)](q=29.800,27.500,P<0.05).The imaging capabilities of distal-branch vessel of ACS4 group and ACS5 group were better than ACS6 group.There was no stenosis in the proximal and middle segments of the images of the three ACS group,and there were no stenosis in the images of distal vessels of ACS4 group and ACS5 group.A total of 5 cases were pseudo-stenosis in the distal vessels of ACS6 group.Compared with the control group,the incidence of pseudo-stenosis in the distal vessels of ACS6 group was 16.7%.The SNR and CNR values of quantitative analysis for proximal vessels in ACS6 group were higher than them in ACS4 group(q=27.800,26.200,P<0.05),and there was not significant difference in them among ACS4 group,ACS6 group and ACS5 group(P>0.05).The differences of SNR and CNR values in the middle and distal segments of blood vessels among different groups were not significant(P>0.05).There was not significant difference in the edge sharpness of blood vessels among ACS4 group,ACS5 group,and ACS6 group(P>0.05),while all of them were higher than those of control group,and the differences were significant(q=48.150,53.367,44.883,P<0.001).Compared with control group,the scan-time of ACS4 group was reduced by 55.19%,and that of ACS5 group was reduced by 64.07%,and that of ACS6 group was reduced by 70%.Conclusion:ACS technique can accelerate the imaging speed of brain 3D-TOF-MRA and ensure image quality.It is clinically recommended to set the ACS acceleration factor as 5.02 to undergo brain 3D-TOF-MRA scans.
7.Innovative publicity and communication models enhancing immunization program
Qian HOU ; Hui XU ; Lixin HAO ; Wenzhou YU ; Zundong YIN
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;59(9):1486-1488
Vaccination is one of the most cost-effective measures for preventing and controlling infectious diseases.In recent years, there has been a growing public demand for knowledge about vaccines and vaccine-preventable diseases, which has placed higher requirements on the capacity and quality of immunization services. However, "vaccine hesitancy" has become an increasingly prominent issue. In 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) listed it as one of the top ten global health threats, and it is gradually becoming a major challenge for immunization programs worldwide. Therefore, current immunization programs need to actively innovate in publicity and communication strategies to enhance public willingness for voluntary vaccination, improve awareness and trust in vaccines, and further reinforce the understanding of their critical role in infectious disease prevention and control. This paper examines the challenges and circumstances faced by vaccination publicity and communication in the new era, and proposes relevant recommendations, aiming to provide reference for developing new models of publicity and communication.
8.Comparative analysis of sporadic and von Hippel-Lindau syndrome-associated intracranial hemangioblastomas:clinical features and survival ending
Lixin XU ; Xuanshi LIU ; Xinru XIAO ; Hongqi ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Cerebrovascular Diseases 2025;22(7):439-452
Objective To investigate the differences in clinical characteristics,surgical outcomes,and prognosis between sporadic intracranial hemangioblastoma(IC-HB)and von Hippel-Lindau(VHL)syndrome-associated IC-HB.Methods A retrospective consecutive series of patients who underwent microsurgical resection at the Department of Neurosurgery,Xuanwu Hospital,Capital Medical University,between April 2014 and January 2024,with postoperative pathological confirmation of IC-HB,was included.Clinical and imaging data were collected,including demographics(sex,age),preoperative clinical manifestations(asymptomatic,headache,dizziness,vertigo or imbalance,blurred vision or papilledema,nausea or vomiting,other symptoms),number of symptoms,lesion type(solid or solid-cystic),lesion size(volume,longest diameter,anteroposterior diameter,superoinferior diameter,transverse diameter),lesion location(cerebellar region:hemisphere,vermis;brainstem region:medulla oblongata,fourth ventricle;skull base region:cerebellopontine angle,jugular foramen,petroclival region),Karnofsky performance status(KPS)score(preoperative,postoperative;KPS score>70 and 70),surgical information,and follow-up data.Based on past medical history,family history,and VHL gene test results,patients were classified into sporadic IC-HB and VHL syndrome-associated IC-HB groups.Differences in clinical characteristics,surgical outcomes,and follow-up status were compared between the groups.Improved outcomes were defined as increases in KPS scores over 0 at 6-month follow-ups in comparison with preoperative KPS,while non-improved outcomes were defined by unchanged or decreased(>0 point)KPS scores.Survival outcomes,including postoperative recurrence(newly occurring abnormally enhancing nodules at the surgical site or periphery with continuous development during follow-ups.Recurrence could be verified through the combination of imaging enhancement features,clinical manifestations and post-operative pathological examinations),postoperative KPS improvement,and death of any cause during follow-up.The outcomes of postoperative KPS improvement versus non-improvement(unchanged or worsened)were analyzed through univariate analysis with the Firth penalized maximum likelihood Logistic regression model.Variables meeting the criteria(P<0.05 in univariate analysis,clinical importance,statistical model feasibility)were included in a multivariate Logistic regression model to identify independent factors influencing functional outcomes.Survival outcomes were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression models.Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to assess recurrence-free survival rates between groups with the Log-rank test.Furthermore,univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were performed separately for the sporadic IC-HB and VHL syndrome-associated IC-HB subgroups to explore independent factors for postoperative KPS improvement.Results A total of 82 IC-HB patients(41 male,41 female),aged 11-73 years(mean[42±15]years),were included.Among which,68 had sporadic IC-HB and 14 had VHL syndrome-associated IC-HB.39 patients had improved postoperative KPS and 43 patients showed no improvements in KPS scores.(1)For clinical characteristics,the age of onset was younger in the VHL syndrome-associated IC-HB group([35±14]years vs.[44±15]years,P=0.044).Lesions in VHL syndrome-associated IC-HB patients were more likely to involve the brainstem and adjacent critical structures(8/14 of which involved medulla oblongata),while sporadic IC-HB was more common in the cerebellar hemispheres(70.6%[48/68]).The distribution of lesion location across cerebellar,skull base,and brainstem regions differed significantly between groups(P=0.015),while other characteristics showed no significant differences(all P>0.05).(2)For treatment and follow-ups,all patients underwent gross total microsurgical resection.Preoperative angiography via femoral artery was performed in 22 patients,with partial preoperative embolization in 4 patients.Postoperatively,KPS improved in 39 patients,remained unchanged in 33 patients,and worsened in 10 patients.The change in KPS scores pre-to post-operatively did not differ significantly between groups(P=0.707).The recurrence rate was higher in the VHL syndrome-associated IC-HB group(4/14 vs.5.9%[4/68],P=0.026),but there was no significant difference in mortality(P=0.999).(3)For analysis of factors influencing postoperative KPS improvement,univariate Logistic regression showed preoperative asymptomatic(OR,0.05,95%CI0.00-0.39,P=0.002),preoperative dizziness(OR,2.62,95%CI 1.09-6.47,P=0.031),vertigo/imbalance(OR,3.60,95%CI 1.04-15.45,P=0.043),nausea/vomiting(OR,4.49,95%CI 1.65-13.53,P=0.003),preoperative symptoms(OR,2.27,95%CI 1.46-3.86,P<0.01)and preoperative KPS ≤70(OR,7.65,95%CI 1.60-74.47,P=0.009)were strongly associated with KPS improvement.Multivariate Logistic regression only identified the number of preoperative symptoms as an independent predictor of postoperative KPS improvement(OR,2.44,95%CI 1.04-6.32,P=0.049).(4)For survival outcome analysis,no significant differences in the risk of postoperative recurrence,KPS improvement,or death were observed between the VHL syndrome-associated and sporadic IC-HB patients(recurrence:HR,4.88,95%CI 0.97-24.69,P=0.055;KPS improvement:HR,0.60,95%CI 0.25-1.43,P=0.246;mortality:P=0.999).Kaplan-Meier curves showed no statistically significant difference in recurrence-free survival rate between groups(P=0.053).(5)In the subgroup analysis,in sporadic IC-HB patients,multivariate Logistic regression identified the number of preoperative symptoms as an independent predictor of postoperative KPS improvement(OR,1.97,95%CI 1.14-3.68,P=0.021).Due to the small sample size,reliable parameter estimation was not possible for the VHL syndrome-associated IC-HB subgroup due to the small sample size.Conclusions VHL syndrome-associated IC-HB patients have a higher risk of recurrence in comparison with sporadic IC-HB patients.The number of preoperative symptoms can guide survival ending assessment.
9.Expert consensus:Prevention and treatment of dental implant biological complications
Xing WANG ; Liping WANG ; Qintao WANG ; Rong SHU ; Dongying XUAN ; Yiqun WU ; Lixin QIU ; Derong ZOU ; Yingliang SONG ; Jiang CHEN ; Yan XU ; Jincai ZHANG ; Yucheng SU ; Linhu GE ; Yufeng XIE
STOMATOLOGY 2025;45(11):801-807
Dental implantology has developed rapidly for over half a century,since pure titanium(99.7%)dental cylindrical threaded implants were exploited and osseointegration was introduced in 1960s by Prof.Br?nemark.The long term retention rates of 10 years or more are over 95%.However,the biological complications jeopardize the long term effects of dental implant treatment seriously.The prevalence of dental implant biological complications varies greatly among different reports resulting from the disparities on the defini-tions of dental implant biological complications.After analyzing and summarizing the major opinions proposed internationally in recent years,the consensus for the definition of dental implant biological complications has been reached.Generally the dental implant biologi-cal implications can be classified into early stage(before restoration)biological complications and late stage(after restoration)biological complications.The early stage biological complications include acute and chronic infections,pain,soft tissue deficiency,and osseointegration failure,etc.The late stage complications include peri-implant diseases(peri-implant mucositis and peri-implantitis),soft tissue deficiency around implant,implant loosening and dropping off,etc.The various risk factors related to different dental implant biological complications,the strategies of the prevention and treatment for the dental implant biological complications have been discussed comprehensively,and the consensus has been reached.It is aimed to advocate the dentist to pay more attention to the early prevention of the biological implant complications,to promote more researches on the implant biological complications,and to help elevate the level of dental implantology in our country.
10.Construction and performance evaluation of a prediction model for postoperative poor in-hospital prognosis in patients with traumatic brain injury
Tao MEI ; Zheyong JIA ; Lie CHEN ; Peng CAO ; Wei XIAO ; Weiqiang MAO ; Jianwu GONG ; Lixin XU
Chinese Journal of Trauma 2025;41(11):1048-1058
Objective:To construct a prediction model for postoperative poor in-hospital prognosis in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) and evaluate its predictive performance.Methods:A retrospective case control study was conducted to analyze the clinical data of 1 120 TBI patients admitted to Changde Hospital Affiliated to Xiangya Medical College of Central South University from May 2019 to December 2024. The patients were divided into the training set ( n=784) and verification set ( n=336) at a ratio of 7∶3. Based on the Glasgow outcome scale-extended (GOS-E) at discharge, the training set was stratified into favorable prognosis group ( n=335, GOS-E 5-8 points) and poor prognosis group ( n=449, GOS-E 1-4 points). The two groups in the training set were compared in terms of general baseline indicators, TBI-related clinical indicators, and admission laboratory blood test results. Univariate analysis and Lasso regression analysis were employed to screen risk factors associated with postoperative poor in-hospital prognosis in TBI patients. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to determine independent risk factors and construct a regression equation. The regression equation was presented using R language to create a visual nomogram for predicting postoperative poor in-hospital prognosis in TBI patients. In both the training set and verification set, the predictive performance of the model was evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), plotting calibration curves, and performing decision curve analysis (DCA). Results:The results of the univariate analysis indicated that the age, Charlson complication index (CCI), time from trauma to admission, time from trauma to operation, cause of injury, abbreviated injury scale (AIS) (head and neck), injury severity score (ISS), admission Glasgow coma scale (GCS), admission pupil responsiveness, multiple craniocerebral injuries, subdural hematoma, intracerebral hematoma, intraventricular hemorrhage, subarachnoid hemorrhage, decompressive craniotomy, intraoperative blood loss, intraoperative blood transfusion, traumatic cerebral infarction, postoperative delayed bleeding, epilepsy seizures, as well as the following admission tested results including red blood cell count, white blood cell count, platelet count, neutrophil percentage, percentage of lymphocytes, albumin, total bilirubin, urea nitrogen, thrombin time (TT), prothrombin time (PT), international standardized ratio (INR), glutamic aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, creatinine, and blood glucose were statistically different between the two groups in the training set ( P<0.05). Lasso regression analysis suggested 14 risk factors of age, CCI, cause of injury, head and neck AIS, ISS, admission GCS, admission pupil responsiveness, multiple craniocerebral injuries, subdural hematoma, intracerebral hematoma, intraoperative blood loss, admission platelet count, admission albumin, admission blood glucose for postoperative poor in-hospital prognosis. The results of the multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age ( OR=1.02, 95% CI 1.00, 1.03, P<0.01), CCI ( OR=1.46, 95% CI 1.02, 2.09, P<0.05), head and neck AIS ( OR=1.43, 95% CI 1.11, 1.85, P<0.01), ISS ( OR=2.16, 95% CI 1.39, 3.35, P<0.01), admission GCS ( OR=1.59, 95% CI 1.19, 2.13, P<0.01), intracerebral hematoma ( OR=4.41, 95% CI 2.15, 9.44, P<0.01), intraoperative blood loss ( OR=1.05, 95% CI 1.00, 1.09, P<0.05), admission platelet count ( OR=0.98, 95% CI 0.97, 0.99, P<0.01), admission blood glucose ( OR=1.08, 95% CI 1.02, 1.15, P<0.05) could be the main risk factors to construct a prediction model for postoperative poor in-hospital prognosis in TBI patients. Meanwhile, a regression equation was constructed: Logit[ P/(1- P)]=-2.4+ 0.02×"age"+0.38×"CCI"+0.36×"head and neck AIS"+0.77×"ISS"+0.47×"admission GCS"+1.48×"intracerebral hematoma"+0.05×intraoperative blood loss-0.02×admission platelet count+0.08×admission blood glucose. In the training set, the predictive model for poor postoperative in-hospital prognosis in TBI patients achieved an AUC of 0.87 (95% CI 0.84, 0.89), with a Youden′s index of 0.57, sensitivity of 73.70%, and specificity of 83.00%. In the verification set, the model showed an AUC of 0.80 (95% CI 0.76, 0.85), with a Youden′s index of 0.63, sensitivity of 65.20%, and specificity of 77.90%. In the training set, the Brier score for the calibration curve was 0.14 (95% CI 0.13, 0.16). In the verification set, the Brier score for the calibration curve was 0.18 (95% CI 0.15, 0.20). The DCA diagram indicated that the nomogram prediction model provided high clinical net benefit for predicting postoperative poor in-hospital prognosis in TBI patients. Conclusion:The prediction model for postoperative poor in-hospital prognosis in TBI patients, constructed based on age, CCI, head and neck AIS, ISS, admission GCS, intracerebral hematoma, intraoperative blood loss, admission platelet count, and admission blood glucose, exhibits good predictive performance.

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