BACKGROUND: Chronic liver disease (CLD), mainly non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is a significant public health concern worldwide. This study aims to quantify the burden of NAFLD in CLD globally and within China, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, providing crucial insights for global and local health policies. METHODS: The study used comprehensive data from the GBD study 2021. It included estimates of prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Age-standardized rates and average annual percent change (AAPC) from 2011 to 2021 were reported. A meticulous decomposition analysis was conducted. RESULTS: In 2021, there were 1582.5 million prevalent cases, 47.6 million incident cases, 1.4 million deaths, and 44.4 million DALYs attributable to CLD, globally. Among these, NAFLD has emerged as the predominant cause, accounting for 78.0% of all prevalent CLD cases (1234.7 million) and 87.2% of incident cases (41.5 million). Correspondingly, NAFLD had the highest age-standardized prevalence (15,017.5 per 100,000 population) and incidence (876.5 per 100,000 population) rates among CLDs. In addition, China's CLD age-standardized prevalence rate was 21,659.5 per 100,000 population, and the age-standardized incidence rate was 752.6 per 100,000 population, higher than the global average. From 2011 to 2021, the global prevalence rate of CLD increased slowly (AAPC = 0.17), consistent with the trend in China (AAPC = 0.23). Furthermore, the prevalence rate of NAFLD rose significantly in China (AAPC = 1.30) compared with the global average (AAPC = 0.91). Decomposition analysis also showed the worldwide increase in deaths and DALYs for NAFLD, which were primarily attributable to population growth and aging. CONCLUSIONS The burden of CLD and NAFLD remains substantial globally and within China in terms of high prevalence and incidence. As such, this underscores the need for targeted prevention and treatment strategies. These findings emphasize the importance of continued surveillance and research to mitigate the growing impact of liver diseases on global and Chinese health systems.
Humans ; Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease/mortality* ; Global Burden of Disease ; China/epidemiology* ; Prevalence ; Male ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Female ; Incidence ; Middle Aged ; Chronic Disease ; Adult ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Liver Diseases/epidemiology* ; Aged

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a nomogram model for predicting 30-day mortality among elderly patients with sepsis-associated liver dysfunction (SALD), to identify high-risk patients and improve prognosis. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV (MIMIC-IV) database for elderly patients with SALD who were first admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center between 2008 and 2019, including basic characteristics, severity scores, underlying diseases, infection foci, 24-hour vital signs, initial laboratory indicators, 24-hour complications, and prognosis related indicators. Patients were randomly assigned to training group and validation group in a ratio of 7 : 3. The training group used the LASSO regression analysis, as well as multivariate Logistic regression analysis to screen for independent risk factors for 30-day mortality. A nomogram prediction model was constructed, and receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the model, and validate the model using the validation cohort. RESULTS: A total of 630 elderly patients with SLAD were included in the study, including 441 in the training group and 189 in the validation group. Oxford acute severity of illness score (OASIS) for training group [odds ratio (OR) = 1.060, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.034-1.086], 24-hour pulse oxygen saturation (SpO₂; OR = 0.876, 95%CI was 0.797-0.962), initial mean corpuscular volume (MCV; OR = 1.043, 95%CI was 1.009-1.077), initial red blood cell distribution width (RDW; OR = 1.237, 95%CI was 1.123-1.362), initial blood glucose (OR = 1.008, 95%CI was 1.004-1.013), and initial aspartate aminotransferase (AST; OR = 1.000, 95%CI was 1.000-1.001) were independent risk factors for 30-day mortality in patients (all P < 0.05). Based on the above variables, a nomogram model was constructed, and the ROC curve showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the model in the training group was 0.757 (95%CI was 0.712-0.803), with a sensitivity of 65.05% and a specificity of 74.90%; the AUC of the model in the validation group was 0.712 (95%CI was 0.631-0.792), with a sensitivity of 58.67% and a specificity of 81.58%. The calibration curves of the training and validation groups show that both the fitted curves were close to the standard curves. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test: the training group (χ ² = 6.729, P = 0.566), the validation group (χ ² = 13.889, P = 0.085), indicating that the model can fit the observed data well. The DCA curve shows that when the threshold probability of the training group was 16% to 94% and the threshold probability of the validation group was 27% to 99%, the net benefit of the model was good. CONCLUSIONS OASIS, 24-hour SpO₂, initial MCV, initial RDW, initial blood glucose and initial AST are independent risk factors for 30-day mortality in elderly patients with SALD. The nomogram based on these six variables demonstrates good predictive performance.
Humans ; Sepsis/complications* ; Retrospective Studies ; Nomograms ; Aged ; Prognosis ; Risk Factors ; Liver Diseases/mortality* ; Intensive Care Units ; ROC Curve ; Male ; Female ; Logistic Models

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), together with metabolic syndrome and obesity, has shown a rapid increase in prevalence worldwide and is emerging as a major cause of chronic liver disease and liver transplantation. Among the various phenotypes of NAFLD, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is highly likely to progress to development of end-stage liver disease and cardiometabolic disease, resulting in liver-related and non-liver–related mortality. Nonetheless, there is no standardized pharmacotherapy against NASH and many drugs are under development in ongoing clinical trials. To develop a successful anti-NASH drug, it is necessary to select an appropriate target population and treatment outcomes depending on whether the mode of action is anti-metabolic, anti-inflammatory or anti-fibrotic. Recently, innovative surrogate markers have been investigated to replace hard outcomes such as liver histology and mortality and reduce the clinical trial duration. Currently, several drugs with fast track designation are being tested in phase III clinical trials, and many other drugs have moved into phase II clinical trials. Both lean NAFLD and typical obese NAFLD have been extensively studied and genetic variants such as PNPLA3 and TM6SF2 have been identified as significant risk factors for lean NAFLD. In the near future, noninvasive biomarkers and effective targeted therapies for NASH and associated fibrosis are required to develop precision medicine and tailored therapy according to various phenotypes of NAFLD.
Biomarkers ; Drug Therapy ; Fibrosis ; Health Services Needs and Demand ; Liver ; Liver Diseases ; Liver Transplantation ; Mortality ; Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease ; Obesity ; Phenotype ; Precision Medicine ; Prevalence ; Risk Factors

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Cellulitis is a common infection in patients with liver cirrhosis. We aimed to compare risk factors, microbial aspects, and outcomes of cellulitis in compensated and decompensated hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis. METHODS: Six hundred twenty consecutive HCV-related cirrhotic patients were evaluated for cellulitis. Demographic and clinical data were evaluated, along with blood and skin cultures. Severity of cirrhosis was assessed using Child-Pugh score. In-hospital mortality was assessed. RESULTS: Seventy-seven (12.4%) cirrhotic patients had cellulitis (25 with compensated and 52 with decompensated disease). Smoking and venous insufficiency were risk factors of cellulitis in compensated cirrhosis. Leg edema, ascites, hyperbilrubinemia and hypoalbuminemia were risk factors in decompensated cirrhosis. Gram-positive bacteria (Staphylococcus spp. and Streptococcus pyogenes) were the infective organisms in compensated patients, while gram negative bacteria (Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa) were the predominant organisms in decompensated cirrhosis. Fungi (Candida albicans and Aspergillus niger) were detected in 3 decompensated cases. In-hospital mortality in patients with cellulitis was 27.3%, approaching 100% in decompensated patients with gram-negative cellulitis. Prolonged hospitalization, higher model for end-stage liver disease (MELD)-Na score, septic shock, local complication, and recurrent cellulitis were predictors of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Cellulitis in compensated cirrhosis is different from that of decompensated patients regarding microorganisms, pathogenesis, and prognosis. Cellulitis has a poor prognosis, with mortality rates approaching 100% in decompensated patients with gram-negative cellulitis. Stratifying patients according to severity of cirrhosis is important to identify the proper empirical antibiotic and to decide the proper means of care.
Ascites ; Aspergillus ; Cellulitis ; Edema ; Fibrosis ; Fungi ; Gram-Negative Bacteria ; Gram-Positive Bacteria ; Hepacivirus ; Hepatitis C ; Hepatitis ; Hospital Mortality ; Hospitalization ; Humans ; Hypoalbuminemia ; Klebsiella pneumoniae ; Leg ; Liver Cirrhosis ; Liver Diseases ; Mortality ; Prognosis ; Pseudomonas ; Risk Factors ; Shock, Septic ; Skin ; Smoke ; Smoking ; Streptococcus ; Venous Insufficiency

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus (DM) increases risk of heart failure. It has been shown that diabetes leads to DM-cardiomyopathy, characterized by systolic and diastolic dysfunction. Pre-transplant diastolic dysfunction, has been associated with poor graft outcome and mortality. We assessed the hypothesis that end-stage liver disease (ESLD) patients with diabetes (DM-ESLD), have more advanced cardiac systolic and diastolic dysfunction, compared to ESLD patients without diabetes (Non DM-ESLD).METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated preoperative echocardiography of 1,319 consecutive liver transplant recipients (1,007 Non DM-ESLD vs. 312 DM-ESLD [23.7%]) January 2012–May 2016. Systolic and diastolic indices, such as left ventricular ejection fraction, transmital E/A ratio, tissue doppler s′, e′ velocity, and E/e′ ratio (index of left ventricular end-diastolic pressure), were compared using 1:2 propensity-score matching.RESULTS: DM-ESLD patients showed no differences in systolic indices of left ventricular ejection fraction and s′ velocity, whereas diastolic indices of E/A ratio ≤ 1 (49.0% vs. 40.2% P = 0.014), e′ velocity (median = 7.0 vs. 7.4 cm/s, P < 0.001) and E/e′ ratio (10.9 ± 3.2 vs. 10.1 ± 3.0, P < 0.001), showed worse diastolic function compare with Non DM-ESLD patients, respectively.CONCLUSIONS: DM-ESLD patients suffer higher degree of diastolic dysfunction compared with Non DM-ESLD patients. Based on this, careful preoperative screening for diastolic dysfunction in DM-ESLD patients is encouraged, because poor transplant outcomes have been noted in patients with preoperative diastolic dysfunction.
Diabetes Mellitus ; Echocardiography ; Heart Failure ; Heart Failure, Diastolic ; Heart Failure, Systolic ; Humans ; Liver Cirrhosis ; Liver Diseases ; Liver ; Mass Screening ; Mortality ; Propensity Score ; Retrospective Studies ; Stroke Volume ; Transplant Recipients ; Transplants

The HEV is a known cause of water-borne outbreaks of acute non-A non-B hepatitis in developing countries, which affects young people and may result in high mortality in pregnant women. In recent decades, however, HEV genotypes 3 and 4 have been known as a cause of sporadic zoonotic infections in older males from swine HEV worldwide. Most acute HEV infections are self-limited. On the other hand, in immunosuppressed patients, including solid organ transplant recipients, chronic HEV infections may exist and progress to liver cirrhosis or decompensation. Therefore, physicians need to recognize HEV as a major pathogen for acute and chronic hepatitis of unknown causes and investigate this disease.
Developing Countries ; Diagnosis ; Disease Outbreaks ; Female ; Genotype ; Hand ; Hepatitis E virus ; Hepatitis E ; Hepatitis ; Hepatitis, Chronic ; Humans ; Liver Cirrhosis ; Male ; Mortality ; Pregnant Women ; Swine ; Transplants ; Waterborne Diseases ; Zoonoses

BACKGROUND/AIMS: A diagnosis of hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) is based on a differential evaluation of acute kidney injury (AKI), which may aggravate the clinical course. This study assessed the clinical significance of the urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (u-NGAL) levels in a differential diagnosis of AKI in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC).METHODS: Patients with LC who developed AKI were enrolled prospectively. Clinically, patients with AKI were classified into prerenal azotemia (PRA), HRS, and acute tubular necrosis (ATN) groups.RESULTS: Fifty-five patients (male, 74.5%) with LC who exhibited AKI upon admission were enrolled; 28, 9, and 18 patients were included in the PRA, HRS, and ATN groups, respectively. The baseline model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores was similar in the subgroups. The median event creatinine level, measured at the time of the AKI diagnosis, was similar in the HRS and ATN subgroups. On the other hand, the median event u-NGAL level differed significantly between the three subgroups (PRA, HRS, and ATN: 37 vs. 134 vs. 2,625 ng/mL, p=0.003). In particular, the median u-NGAL level of the HRS group was clearly different from those of the PRA (p<0.001) and ATN (p<0.001) groups. Multivariable analysis revealed the natural logarithm of the u-NGAL level (hazard ratio [HR] 1.77, p=0.031) and the MELD score (HR 1.17, p=0.027) to be independent prognostic factors for in-hospital mortality in patients with LC and AKI.CONCLUSIONS: The median u-NGAL level differentiated HRS from ATN and served as a clinical indicator of in-hospital mortality for patients with LC and AKI.
Acute Kidney Injury ; Azotemia ; Creatinine ; Diagnosis ; Diagnosis, Differential ; Hand ; Hepatorenal Syndrome ; Hospital Mortality ; Humans ; Kidney Tubular Necrosis, Acute ; Lipocalins ; Liver Cirrhosis ; Liver Diseases ; Liver ; Necrosis ; Neutrophils ; Prospective Studies

HBV is the most common etiology of both liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma in Korea. Despite much progress made, the currently available antiviral therapies cannot eradicate or eliminate this virus. Hence, the benefits and risks of antiviral therapy should be carefully evaluated on an individual basis and within the context of the clinical situation. The ultimate goals of treatment are to decrease the mortality from liver disease. The benefits of antiviral therapy come from prevention of progression of liver disease. Understanding the natural history of chronic HBV infection is a key step in the decision making process to treat patients with chronic HBV infection. Generally, chronic hepatitis B patients in the immune tolerant phase and immune inactive phase are not recommended to undergo antiviral treatment, except for those patients in special conditions (e.g., immunosuppression or anticancer chemotherapy). Chronic hepatitis B patients in the immune active phase are recommended for antiviral therapy. For patients with liver cirrhosis, treatment should be considered when serum HBV DNA is detectable regardless of the serum level of ALT.
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular ; Decision Making ; DNA ; Hepatitis B virus ; Hepatitis B, Chronic ; Hepatitis, Chronic ; Humans ; Immunosuppression ; Korea ; Liver Cirrhosis ; Liver Diseases ; Mortality ; Natural History ; Risk Assessment

The HEV is a known cause of water-borne outbreaks of acute non-A non-B hepatitis in developing countries, which affects young people and may result in high mortality in pregnant women. In recent decades, however, HEV genotypes 3 and 4 have been known as a cause of sporadic zoonotic infections in older males from swine HEV worldwide. Most acute HEV infections are self-limited. On the other hand, in immunosuppressed patients, including solid organ transplant recipients, chronic HEV infections may exist and progress to liver cirrhosis or decompensation. Therefore, physicians need to recognize HEV as a major pathogen for acute and chronic hepatitis of unknown causes and investigate this disease.
Developing Countries ; Diagnosis ; Disease Outbreaks ; Female ; Genotype ; Hand ; Hepatitis E virus ; Hepatitis E ; Hepatitis ; Hepatitis, Chronic ; Humans ; Liver Cirrhosis ; Male ; Mortality ; Pregnant Women ; Swine ; Transplants ; Waterborne Diseases ; Zoonoses

BACKGROUND/AIMS: A diagnosis of hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) is based on a differential evaluation of acute kidney injury (AKI), which may aggravate the clinical course. This study assessed the clinical significance of the urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (u-NGAL) levels in a differential diagnosis of AKI in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC). METHODS: Patients with LC who developed AKI were enrolled prospectively. Clinically, patients with AKI were classified into prerenal azotemia (PRA), HRS, and acute tubular necrosis (ATN) groups. RESULTS: Fifty-five patients (male, 74.5%) with LC who exhibited AKI upon admission were enrolled; 28, 9, and 18 patients were included in the PRA, HRS, and ATN groups, respectively. The baseline model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores was similar in the subgroups. The median event creatinine level, measured at the time of the AKI diagnosis, was similar in the HRS and ATN subgroups. On the other hand, the median event u-NGAL level differed significantly between the three subgroups (PRA, HRS, and ATN: 37 vs. 134 vs. 2,625 ng/mL, p=0.003). In particular, the median u-NGAL level of the HRS group was clearly different from those of the PRA (p<0.001) and ATN (p<0.001) groups. Multivariable analysis revealed the natural logarithm of the u-NGAL level (hazard ratio [HR] 1.77, p=0.031) and the MELD score (HR 1.17, p=0.027) to be independent prognostic factors for in-hospital mortality in patients with LC and AKI. CONCLUSIONS: The median u-NGAL level differentiated HRS from ATN and served as a clinical indicator of in-hospital mortality for patients with LC and AKI.
Acute Kidney Injury ; Azotemia ; Creatinine ; Diagnosis ; Diagnosis, Differential ; Hand ; Hepatorenal Syndrome ; Hospital Mortality ; Humans ; Kidney Tubular Necrosis, Acute ; Lipocalins ; Liver Cirrhosis ; Liver Diseases ; Liver ; Necrosis ; Neutrophils ; Prospective Studies