1.Ershen Zhenwu Decoction Treats Chronic Heart Failure by Regulating miR-423-5p/Smad7/TGF-β1/Smads Axis and Myocardial Fibrosis Indicators
Lan GE ; Zhenpeng ZHU ; Xinyue WANG ; Dan CHENG ; Yulong LIU ; Maomao ZHANG ; Xiaoyu CHENG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(3):157-165
ObjectiveTo investigate the clinical effect of Ershen Zhenwu Decoction on chronic heart failure (CHF) due to heart-kidney Yang deficiency and blood stasis and its regulatory effects on miR-423-5p/Smad7/transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1)/Smads axis and myocardial fibrosis indicators. MethodsOne hundred and fourteen patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF) were randomly allocated into a control group and an observation group. The control group was treated with dapagliflozin tablets, sacubitril-valsartan sodium tablets, metoprolol succinate, and spironolactone, and the observation group was treated with Ershen Zhenwu Decoction on the basis of the therapy in the control group. The course of treatment was 8 weeks in both groups. The 6-min walking distance, New York Heart Association (NYHA) heart function grade, Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire (MLHFQ) score, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), angiotensin Ⅱ (Ang Ⅱ), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), left ventricular end-diastolic diameter (LVIDd), left ventricular end-systolic diameter (LVIDs), interventricular septum thickness at diastole (IVSd), left ventricular end-diastolic posterior wall thickness (LVPWd), left ventricular shortening fraction (FS), miR-423-5p, Smad7, Smad2, Smad3, Smad4, TGF-β1, Ang Ⅱ, type Ⅰ collagen (Col Ⅰ), type Ⅲ collagen (Col Ⅲ), mRNA levels of fibronectin (Fn) and α-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA) in the myocardial tissue were observed before and after treatment in both groups to evaluate the efficacy of cardiac function and drug safety. ResultsAfter treatment, both groups showed declined levels of NT-proBNP, Ang Ⅱ, miR-423-5p, Smad2, Smad3, Smad4, TGF-β1, Col Ⅰ, Col Ⅲ, and mRNA levels of Fn and α-SMA (P0.05), and the levels of the indicators above were lower in the observation group than in the control group (P0.05). After treatment, the Smad7 level increased obviously in both groups (P0.05) and was higher in the observation group than in the control group (P0.05). After treatment, both groups showed decreased MLHFQ scores and increased 6-min walking distance (P0.05), and the observation group had lower MLHFQ score and longer 6-min walking distance than the control group (P0.05). After treatment, the control group showed increased LVEF and FS (P0.05) and the observation group showcased decreased LVIDd and LVIDs and increased LVEF and FS (P0.05). Moreover, the observation group had lower LVIDd and LVIDs (P0.05) and higher LVEF and FS (P0.05) than the control group. The total response rate of cardiac function in the observation group was 90.38% (47/52), which was higher than that (70.59%, 36/51) in the control group (P0.05). No adverse reactions associated with Ershen Zhenwu Decoction were observed during the study period. ConclusionErshen Zhenwu Decoction can improve the cardiac function, exercise tolerance, and quality of life, regulate neuroendocrine factors, and slow down/reverse myocardial remodeling in the patients with HFrEF and HFmrEF (syndrome of heart-kidney Yang deficiency and blood stasis by regulating the miR-423-5p/Smad7/TGF-β1/Smads axis, inhibiting α-SMA and Fn expression, and alleviating myocardial fibrosis. It is worthy of further study.
2.Ershen Zhenwu Decoction Treats Chronic Heart Failure by Regulating miR-423-5p/Smad7/TGF-β1/Smads Axis and Myocardial Fibrosis Indicators
Lan GE ; Zhenpeng ZHU ; Xinyue WANG ; Dan CHENG ; Yulong LIU ; Maomao ZHANG ; Xiaoyu CHENG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(3):157-165
ObjectiveTo investigate the clinical effect of Ershen Zhenwu Decoction on chronic heart failure (CHF) due to heart-kidney Yang deficiency and blood stasis and its regulatory effects on miR-423-5p/Smad7/transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1)/Smads axis and myocardial fibrosis indicators. MethodsOne hundred and fourteen patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF) were randomly allocated into a control group and an observation group. The control group was treated with dapagliflozin tablets, sacubitril-valsartan sodium tablets, metoprolol succinate, and spironolactone, and the observation group was treated with Ershen Zhenwu Decoction on the basis of the therapy in the control group. The course of treatment was 8 weeks in both groups. The 6-min walking distance, New York Heart Association (NYHA) heart function grade, Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire (MLHFQ) score, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), angiotensin Ⅱ (Ang Ⅱ), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), left ventricular end-diastolic diameter (LVIDd), left ventricular end-systolic diameter (LVIDs), interventricular septum thickness at diastole (IVSd), left ventricular end-diastolic posterior wall thickness (LVPWd), left ventricular shortening fraction (FS), miR-423-5p, Smad7, Smad2, Smad3, Smad4, TGF-β1, Ang Ⅱ, type Ⅰ collagen (Col Ⅰ), type Ⅲ collagen (Col Ⅲ), mRNA levels of fibronectin (Fn) and α-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA) in the myocardial tissue were observed before and after treatment in both groups to evaluate the efficacy of cardiac function and drug safety. ResultsAfter treatment, both groups showed declined levels of NT-proBNP, Ang Ⅱ, miR-423-5p, Smad2, Smad3, Smad4, TGF-β1, Col Ⅰ, Col Ⅲ, and mRNA levels of Fn and α-SMA (P0.05), and the levels of the indicators above were lower in the observation group than in the control group (P0.05). After treatment, the Smad7 level increased obviously in both groups (P0.05) and was higher in the observation group than in the control group (P0.05). After treatment, both groups showed decreased MLHFQ scores and increased 6-min walking distance (P0.05), and the observation group had lower MLHFQ score and longer 6-min walking distance than the control group (P0.05). After treatment, the control group showed increased LVEF and FS (P0.05) and the observation group showcased decreased LVIDd and LVIDs and increased LVEF and FS (P0.05). Moreover, the observation group had lower LVIDd and LVIDs (P0.05) and higher LVEF and FS (P0.05) than the control group. The total response rate of cardiac function in the observation group was 90.38% (47/52), which was higher than that (70.59%, 36/51) in the control group (P0.05). No adverse reactions associated with Ershen Zhenwu Decoction were observed during the study period. ConclusionErshen Zhenwu Decoction can improve the cardiac function, exercise tolerance, and quality of life, regulate neuroendocrine factors, and slow down/reverse myocardial remodeling in the patients with HFrEF and HFmrEF (syndrome of heart-kidney Yang deficiency and blood stasis by regulating the miR-423-5p/Smad7/TGF-β1/Smads axis, inhibiting α-SMA and Fn expression, and alleviating myocardial fibrosis. It is worthy of further study.
3.Allogeneic lung transplantation in miniature pigs and postoperative monitoring
Yaobo ZHAO ; Ullah SALMAN ; Kaiyan BAO ; Hua KUI ; Taiyun WEI ; Hongfang ZHAO ; Xiaoting TAO ; Xinzhong NING ; Yong LIU ; Guimei ZHANG ; He XIAO ; Jiaoxiang WANG ; Chang YANG ; Feiyan ZHU ; Kaixiang XU ; Kun QIAO ; Hongjiang WEI
Organ Transplantation 2026;17(1):95-105
Objective To explore the feasibility and reference value of allogeneic lung transplantation and postoperative monitoring in miniature pigs for lung transplantation research. Methods Two miniature pigs (R1 and R2) underwent left lung allogeneic transplantation. Complement-dependent cytotoxicity tests and blood cross-matching were performed before surgery. The main operative times and partial pressure of arterial oxygen (PaO2) after opening the pulmonary artery were recorded during surgery. Postoperatively, routine blood tests, biochemical blood indicators and inflammatory factors were detected, and pathological examinations of multiple organs were conducted. Results The complement-dependent cytotoxicity test showed that the survival rate of lymphocytes between donors and recipients was 42.5%-47.3%, and no agglutination reaction occurred in the cross-matching. The first warm ischemia times of D1 and D2 were 17 min and 10 min, respectively, and the cold ischemia times were 246 min and 216 min, respectively. Ultimately, R1 and R2 survived for 1.5 h and 104 h, respectively. Postoperatively, in R1, albumin (ALB) and globulin (GLB) decreased, and alanine aminotransferase increased; in R2, ALB, GLB and aspartate aminotransferase all increased. Urea nitrogen and serum creatinine increased in both recipients. Pathological results showed that in R1, the transplanted lung had partial consolidation with inflammatory cell infiltration, and multiple organs were congested and damaged. In R2, the transplanted lung had severe necrosis with fibrosis, and multiple organs had mild to moderate damage. The expression levels of interleukin-1β and interleukin-6 increased in the transplanted lungs. Conclusions The allogeneic lung transplantation model in miniature pigs may systematically evaluate immunological compatibility, intraoperative function and postoperative organ damage. The data obtained may provide technical references for subsequent lung transplantation research.
4.Study on the risk factors and predictive model for acute kidney injury during tacrolimus treatment for pediatric steroid-resistant nephrotic syndrome
Yuqing LIU ; Lei ZHU ; Zhaohuan HAN ; Lei ZHAO
China Pharmacy 2026;37(1):66-71
OBJECTIVE To explore the risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI) in children with steroid-resistant nephrotic syndrome (SRNS) during tacrolimus treatment and construct a predictive model. METHODS A retrospective selection was made of 155 children diagnosed with SRNS and treated with tacrolimus at Xuzhou Children’s Hospital from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2023, serving as the study subjects. Various clinical data of the children were collected by reviewing the medical record system. Children who developed AKI during medication were assigned to the AKI group (n=26), and those who did not develop AKI were assigned to the control group (n=129). Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were used to screen independent risk factors. A clinical predictive model was constructed based on significant variables, and nomogram, calibration curve, receiver operator characteristic curve, and decision curve were drawn to evaluate the model’s performance. RESULTS Univariate analysis showed that blood urea nitrogen (BUN), serum creatinine (Scr), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), the maximum trough concentration (cmin) of tacrolimus, CYP3A5*3/*3 genotype, concurrent infection, concurrent hypertension, and the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were influencing factors for AKI in children with SRNS during tacrolimus treatment (P<0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis revealed that BUN≥9.58 mmol/L, Scr≥125 μmol/L, eGFR<37 mL/(min·1.73 m2), tacrolimus maximum cmin≥11.26 ng/mL,CYP3A5*3/*3 genotype, concurrent infection, and concurrent hypertension were independent risk factors for AKI in children with SRNS during tacrolimus treatment (P<0.05). The constructed clinical predictive model had an area under the curve of 0.747, showing good agreement between predicted and actual AKI occurrence and demonstrating favorable clinical net benefit in predicting AKI in children. CONCLUSIONS Impaired baseline renal function (elevated BUN, elevated Scr, and decreased eGFR), elevated maximum cmin of tacrolimus, CYP3A5*3/*3 genotype, concurrent infection, and hypertension during treatment are independent risk factors for AKI in children with SRNS during tacrolimus treatment. The established clinical predictive model provides a scientific basis for implementing risk stratification management.
5.Trend in disease burden of asthma attributable to tobacco in China from 1990 to 2021
MA Rongjiao ; HUANG Hanyan ; ZHU Manyu ; LIU Rui ; SHI Fang
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(1):89-92
Objective:
To investigate the trend in disease burden of asthma attributable to tobacco in China from 1990 to 2021, so as to provide the basis for improving intervention measures of asthma.
Methods:
Data on asthma-related mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) attributable to tobacco among adults aged ≥30 years in China from 1990 to 2021 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. Age-standardized mortality and age-standardized DALY rate were calculated using the GBD world standard population structure to analyze the tobacco-attributable asthma burden. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was employed to evaluate temporal trends in the age-standardized mortality and DALY rate from 1990 to 2021.
Results:
In China, the age-standardized mortality and age-standardized DALY rate of asthma attributable to tobacco decreased from 0.73/100 000 and 22.20/100 000 in 1990 to 0.17/100 000 and 6.64/100 000 in 2021, showing downward trends (AAPC=-4.603% and -3.888%, both P<0.05). Among males, the tobacco-attributable age-standardized mortality and age-standardized DALY rate declined from 1.44/100 000 and 41.05/100 000 in 1990 to 0.36/100 000 and 12.79/100 000 in 2021 (AAPC=-4.369% and -3.810%, both P<0.05). Among females, the corresponding rates decreased from 0.21/105 and 5.37/105 to 0.03/105 and 1.08/105 (AAPC=-6.074% and -5.074%, both P<0.05). In 2021, males had higher tobacco-attributable age-standardized mortality and age-standardized DALY rate for asthma than females. Both the mortality and DALY rate of asthma attributable to tobacco increased with age, peaking in the age group ≥80 years at 7.84/100 000 and 112.07/100 000, respectively.
Conclusion
From 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of asthma attributable to tobacco showed a declining trend in China, with males and elderly population aged ≥80 years bearing a relatively heavier disease burden.
6.Mechanism of pachymic acid in ameliorating renal injury in pregnancy induced hypertension rats by regulating the Sirt1/PGC‑1α pathway
Junjiang ZHU ; Jincheng LIN ; Jiajian WU ; Yi ZENG ; Jun HU ; Min LI ; Hongying LIU ; Jinfen LI
China Pharmacy 2026;37(2):186-191
OBJECTIVE To investigate the mechanism of pachymic acid on renal injury in pregnancy induced hypertension (PIH) rats by regulating the silent information regulator transcript 1/peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ coactivator-1α (Sirt1/PGC-1α) pathway. METHODS Pregnant SD rats were prepared by co-caging and PIH model was induced using N-nitro-L- arginine methyl ester (L-NAME) method. PIH rats were randomly divided into model group, L-pachymic acid (low-dose pachymic acid, 10 mg/kg) group, H-pachymic acid (high-dose pachymic acid, 20 mg/kg) group, and H-pachymic acid+EX527 (20 mg/kg pachymic acid+10 mg/kg EX527) group, with 6 rats in each group. Another 6 normal pregnant rats were selected as blank group. Each group was given relevant medicine or solvent intragastrically or intraperitoneally daily, once a day, for 28 consecutive days. After the last administration, 24 h urinary protein and tail artery systolic blood pressure (SBP) were measured in pregnant rats from each group, along with the levels of serum creatinine (Scr), blood urea nitrogen (BUN),uric acid (UA), and cystatin C (Cys-C). The contents of superoxide dismutase (SOD), malondialdehyde (MDA), glutathione peroxidase (GSH-Px), and 8-hydroxy-2′-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG) in renal tissue, as well as the mRNA and protein expression levels of Sirt1 and PGC-1α, were also determined. Meanwhile, renal histopathological changes in rats from each group were evaluated using hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining and periodic acid-Schiff (PAS) staining. RESULTS Compared with model group, L-pachymic acid group and H-pachymic acid group exhibited significant decreases in 24 h urine protein quantification, tail artery SBP, Scr, BUN, UA, Cys-C levels, glomerulosclerosis index score of renal tissue, renal tubular injury score, the percentage of PAS positive area, MDA and 8-OHdG (P<0.05). Conversely, the contents of SOD and GSH-Px, along with the mRNA and protein expression levels of Sirt1 and PGC-1α, were significantly increased (P<0.05). Moreover, these improvements were more pronounced in H-pachymic acid group (P<0.05). Compared with H-pachymic acid group, the aforementioned indicators in pregnant rats from the H-pachymic acid+EX527 group showed significant reversal (P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS Pachymic acid significantly ameliorates renal injury induced by PIH in rats, potentially through activation of the Sirt1/PGC-1α pathway.
7.Expert consensus on neoadjuvant PD-1 inhibitors for locally advanced oral squamous cell carcinoma (2026)
LI Jinsong ; LIAO Guiqing ; LI Longjiang ; ZHANG Chenping ; SHANG Chenping ; ZHANG Jie ; ZHONG Laiping ; LIU Bing ; CHEN Gang ; WEI Jianhua ; JI Tong ; LI Chunjie ; LIN Lisong ; REN Guoxin ; LI Yi ; SHANG Wei ; HAN Bing ; JIANG Canhua ; ZHANG Sheng ; SONG Ming ; LIU Xuekui ; WANG Anxun ; LIU Shuguang ; CHEN Zhanhong ; WANG Youyuan ; LIN Zhaoyu ; LI Haigang ; DUAN Xiaohui ; YE Ling ; ZHENG Jun ; WANG Jun ; LV Xiaozhi ; ZHU Lijun ; CAO Haotian
Journal of Prevention and Treatment for Stomatological Diseases 2026;34(2):105-118
Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is a common head and neck malignancy. Approximately 50% to 60% of patients with OSCC are diagnosed at a locally advanced stage (clinical staging III-IVa). Even with comprehensive and sequential treatment primarily based on surgery, the 5-year overall survival rate remains below 50%, and patients often suffer from postoperative functional impairments such as difficulties with speaking and swallowing. Programmed death receptor-1 (PD-1) inhibitors are increasingly used in the neoadjuvant treatment of locally advanced OSCC and have shown encouraging efficacy. However, clinical practice still faces key challenges, including the definition of indications, optimization of combination regimens, and standards for efficacy evaluation. Based on the latest research advances worldwide and the clinical experience of the expert group, this expert consensus systematically evaluates the application of PD-1 inhibitors in the neoadjuvant treatment of locally advanced OSCC, covering combination strategies, treatment cycles and surgical timing, efficacy assessment, use of biomarkers, management of special populations and immune related adverse events, principles for immunotherapy rechallenge, and function preservation strategies. After multiple rounds of panel discussion and through anonymous voting using the Delphi method, the following consensus statements have been formulated: 1) Neoadjuvant therapy with PD-1 inhibitors can be used preoperatively in patients with locally advanced OSCC. The preferred regimen is a PD-1 inhibitor combined with platinum based chemotherapy, administered for 2-3 cycles. 2) During the efficacy evaluation of neoadjuvant therapy, radiographic assessment should follow the dual criteria of Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) version 1.1 and immune RECIST (iRECIST). After surgery, systematic pathological evaluation of both the primary lesion and regional lymph nodes is required. For combination chemotherapy regimens, PD-L1 expression and combined positive score need not be used as mandatory inclusion or exclusion criteria. 3) For special populations such as the elderly (≥ 70 years), individuals with stable HIV viral load, and carriers of chronic HBV/HCV, PD-1 inhibitors may be used cautiously under the guidance of a multidisciplinary team (MDT), with close monitoring for adverse events. 4) For patients with a poor response to neoadjuvant therapy, continuation of the original treatment regimen is not recommended; the subsequent treatment plan should be adjusted promptly after MDT assessment. Organ transplant recipients and patients with active autoimmune diseases are not recommended to receive neoadjuvant PD-1 inhibitor therapy due to the high risk of immune related activation. Rechallenge is generally not advised for patients who have experienced high risk immune related adverse events such as immune mediated myocarditis, neurotoxicity, or pneumonitis. 5) For patients with a good pathological response, individualized de escalation surgery and function preservation strategies can be explored. This consensus aims to promote the standardized, safe, and precise application of neoadjuvant PD-1 inhibitor strategies in the management of locally advanced OSCC patients.
8.Expert Consensus on Clinical Application of Qidong Yixin Oral Liquid
Changkuan FU ; Xiaochang MA ; Mingjun ZHU ; Yue DENG ; Hongxu LIU ; Mingxue ZHANG ; Ying CHEN ; Yan ZHOU ; Ling ZHANG ; Jianhua FU ; Wei YANG ; Yu'er HU ; Ming CHEN ; Yanming XIE ; Yuanyuan LI
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(4):147-158
The prescription of Qidong Yixin oral liquid is derived from the experience of national medical master Ren Jixue in treating viral myocarditis (VMC). It has the functions of tonifying Qi, nourishing the heart,calming the mind, and relieving palpitations. It is used to treat VMC and angina pectoris of coronary heart disease caused by deficiency of both Qi and Yin. However,the understanding of its efficacy evidence, advantageous aspects, dosage and administration, and medication safety remains insufficient in clinical practice. Therefore,the development of the Expert Consensus on the Clinical Application of Qidong Yixin Oral Liquid (hereinafter referred to as consensus) was initiated. Consensus strictly followed the process and methods of the expert consensus on the clinical application of Chinese patent medicines of the China Association of Chinese Medicine,successively completing multiple tasks such as the consensus project initiation,determination of clinical problems,evidence search and evaluation,formation of recommendation opinions and consensus suggestions,solicitation of opinions,peer review, submission for review and release, and so on. Consensus formed a total of 10 recommendation opinions and 12 consensus suggestions,clarifying the clinical positioning,efficacy advantages,syndrome differentiation,dosage and administration,combination therapy,timing of medication,adverse reactions,contraindications, and precautions of Qidong Yixin oral liquid,indicating that it has good clinical advantages and safety in the treatment of VMC and angina pectoris of coronary heart disease,providing norms and references for physicians to safely and rationally apply Qidong Yixin oral liquid. Consensus was reviewed and approved for release by the Standardization Office of the China Association of Chinese Medicine on December 23, 2024. Standard number:GSCACM-376-2024.
9.Expert Consensus on Neurocritical Care Monitoring and Management in Beijing and Tibet(2025)
Drolma PHURBU ; Wenjin CHEN ; Heng ZHANG ; Jian ZHANG ; Xiaomeng WANG ; Guoying LIN ; Wenjun PAN ; Xiying GUI ; Xin CAI ; Chodron TENZIN ; Jianlei FU ; Qianwei LI ; TSEYANG ; Yijun LIU ; Bo LIU ; Tsering DROLMA ; Yudron SONAM ; KYILV ; Samdrup TSERING ; Wa DA ; Juan GUO ; Cheng QIU ; Huan CHEN ; Xiaoting WANG ; Yangong CHAO ; Dawei LIU ; Wenzhao CHAI ; Chenggong HU ; Wanhong YIN ; Shihong ZHU
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2026;17(1):59-72
Neurocritical care involves complex pathophysiological mechanisms, and its incidence is higher, injuries are more severe, and treatment is more challenging in high-altitude environments. This consensus, based on the latest domestic and international evidence-based medical data, establishes a standardized, goal-oriented framework for neurocritical care management applicable in high-altitude regions and nationwide. The consensus was developed following international standards for evidence quality assessment and underwent two rounds of Delphi expert consultation, resulting in 32 recommendation statements covering three parts: management systems, monitoring and assessment, and core strategies. Key updates include: advocating for the establishment of independent neurocritical care units and implementing precise tiered diagnosis and treatment based on the "Five Differences in Critical Care" concept; constructing a "trinity" multimodal brain monitoring system centered on cerebral blood flow, cerebral oxygenation, and brain function, emphasizing routine bedside transcranial Doppler ultrasound, cerebral oximetry, and continuous electroencephalography monitoring; shifting management strategies from mild hypothermia therapy to targeted temperature management, and defining the "446" target management pathway for the supercritical stage; emphasizing the assessment of static and dynamic cerebrovascular autoregulation functions through multimodal methods to achieve individualized optimal mean arterial pressure management; elevating cerebrospinal fluid management goals to the level of "glymphatic system" function maintenance; implementing a multidisciplinary collaborative, whole-process management model focusing on patients' long-term neurological functional outcomes; de-escalation criteria include multidimensional indicators such as recovery of brain structure, restoration of cerebrovascular autoregulation, improvement in cerebrospinal fluid dynamics, and reduction in biomarker levels; and integrating cutting-edge technologies like artificial intelligence into post-critical care management and rehabilitation planning. This consensus systematically integrates the entire process of neurocritical care management, reflecting the modern connotation of goal-oriented, dynamic, and multimodal integration in neurocritical care medicine. It aims to adapt to new trends such as deepening understanding of pathophysiological mechanisms, the integration of medicine and engineering, and the empowerment of artificial intelligence, thereby further advancing the discipline of critical care medicine.
10.Explainable Machine Learning Model for Predicting Prognosis in Patients with Malignant Tumors Complicated by Acute Respiratory Failure: Based on the eICU Collaborative Research Database in the United States
Zihan NAN ; Linan HAN ; Suwei LI ; Ziyi ZHU ; Qinqin ZHU ; Yan DUAN ; Xiaoting WANG ; Lixia LIU
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2026;17(1):98-108
To develop and validate a model for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality risk in patients with malignant tumors complicated by acute respiratory failure (ARF) based on an explainable machine learning framework. Clinical data of patients with malignant tumors and ARF were extracted from the eICU Collaborative Research Database in the United States, including demographic characteristics, comorbidities, vital signs, laboratory test indicators, and major interventions within the first 24 hours after ICU admission.The study outcome was ICU death.Enrolled patients were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7:3.Predictor variables were selected using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression.Five machine learning algorithms-extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), Logistic regression, multilayer perceptron (MLP), and C5.0 Decision Tree-were employed to construct predictive models.Model performance was evaluated based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and other metrics.The optimal model was further interpreted using the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) algorithm. A total of 3196 patients with malignant tumors complicated by ARF were included.The training set comprised 2, 261 patients and the validation set 935 patients; 683 patients died during ICU stay, while 2513 survived.LASSO regression ultimately selected 12 variables closely associated with patient ICU outcomes, including sepsis comorbidity, use of vasoactive drugs, and within the first 24 hours after ICU admission: minimum mean arterial pressure, maximum heart rate, maximum respiratory rate, minimum oxygen saturation, minimum serum bicarbonate, minimum blood urea nitrogen, maximum white blood cell count, maximum mean corpuscular volume, maximum serum potassium, and maximum blood glucose.After model evaluation, the XGBoost model demonstrated the best performance.The AUCs for predicting ICU mortality risk in the training and validation sets were 0.940 and 0.763, respectively; accuracy was 88.3% and 81.2%;sensitivity was 98.5% and 95.9%.Its predictive performance also remained optimal in sensitivity analyses.SHAP analysis indicated that the top five variables contributing to the model's predictions were minimum oxygen saturation, minimum serum bicarbonate, minimum mean arterial pressure, use of vasoactive drugs, and maximum white blood cell count. This study successfully developed a mortality risk prediction model for ICU patients with malignant tumors complicated by ARF based on a large-scale dataset and performed explainability analysis.The model aids clinicians in early identification of high-risk patients and implementing individualized interventions.


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