1.Clinical Efficacy and Radiographic Outcomes of Manipulative Reduction Combined with Small Splint Fixation for Distal Radius Fractures:A Retrospective Multicenter Study with Propensity Score Matching
Mao WU ; Guoda DAI ; Yang SHAO ; Shaoshuo LI ; Zhen HUA ; Hengyan CUI ; Tingchen ZHU ; Dipeng LI ; Jintao LIU ; Ming ZHOU ; Peimin WANG ; Liyong ZHANG ; Jianwei WANG
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2026;67(10):1086-1092
ObjectiveTo observe the clinical efficacy and radiographic outcomes of manipulative reduction combined with small splint fixation in the treatment of distal radius fractures. MethodsThe clinical data of 1051 patients with distal radius fractures were retrospectively collected from five hospitals included in the Jiangsu Diagnosis and Treatment Data Platform for Traditional Chinese Medicine(TCM) Dominant Diseases. Propensity score matching at a 1∶4 ratio was applied, resulting in 580 cases selected for final analysis, which comprised 448 patients in the TCM group(manipulative reduction plus small splint fixation) and 132 in the surgical treatment group(open reduction and internal fixation). Each group was further stratified into type A, B, and C subgroups based on AO fracture classification. Radiographic indicators including palmar tilt, radial inclination, and radial height were compared between groups before treatment and 1 day, 1 week, and 4-6 weeks after treatment, and pain visual analog scale(VAS) scores before treatment and 1 week and 4-6 weeks after treatment were also compared. Wrist joint function was assessed 12 weeks after treatment, using the Dienst wrist function score and the Gartland and Werley(G-W) wrist function score. Additionally, the radiographic indicators at different timepoints and the 12-week wrist function levels were compared between groups across different fracture types. ResultsNo statistically significant difference was observed in radiographic indicators and VAS scores at all timepoints before and after treatment, as well as wrist joint function grades assessed by the Dienst score and the G-W score at 12 weeks after treatment (P>0.05). Compared to those before treatment, both groups showed increased palmar tilt, radial inclination, and radial height 1 week and 4-6 weeks after treatment, and decreased VAS scores (P<0.05). Compared to those 1 week after treatment, both groups showed a decrease in palmar tilt, an increase in radial inclination and radial height, and a reduction in VAS score 4-6 weeks after treatment(P<0.05). In type A and B subgroups, the surgical treatment group had a higher radial inclination than the TCM group 4-6 weeks after treatment, while in the type C subgroup, a higher radial height was shown in the surgical treatment group than in the TCM group 4-6 weeks after treatment(P<0.05). In type C subgroup, there was significant difference between groups in the wrist joint function by G-W scores 12 weeks after treatment(P<0.05). ConclusionManipulative reduction combined with small splint fixation can maintain fracture alignment and alleviate pain in treating distal radius fractures, which achieves therapeutic outcomes comparable to surgical treatment. It is particularly suitable for type A and B fractures and can be considered an effective treatment option for distal radius fractures.
2.Construction and Clinical Validation of a Deep Learning-Based Automatic Measurement Model for Palmar Tilt and Radial Inclination in Distal Radius Fractures
Guoda DAI ; Jianwei WANG ; Mao WU ; Bin KANG ; Yang SHAO ; Hengyan CUI ; Shaoshuo LI ; Tingchen ZHU ; Zhen HUA ; Zhongming SHEN ; Jintao LIU ; Ming ZHOU
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2026;67(10):1093-1100
ObjectiveTo construct an automatic measurement model for palmar tilt and radial inclination suitable for traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) clinical scenarios, and to validate its accuracy and efficiency in TCM manipulative reduction settings. MethodsData on anteroposterior (AP) and lateral X-rays of distal radius fractures were collected from patients admitted to 18 TCM/ integrated TCM and western medicine hospitals in Jiangsu province between September 1st, 2023, and September 1st, 2024, via the Jiangsu Diagnosis and Treatment Big Data Platform for TCM Dominant Diseases. A medical image segmentation framework based on multi-scale feature fusion and edge-awareness was employed, combined with anatomical knowledge specific to TCM orthopedics, to optimize the feature extraction strategy of an artificial intelligence (AI) model. This framework enabled automatic segmentation of fracture regions and measurement of distal radius palmar tilt and radial inclination. The accuracy of the AI model in measuring radial inclination and volar tilt was validated, and the measurement time and average time gain rate of the AI model were compared to those of manual measurement. ResultsA total of 15,444 AP and lateral X-ray images of distal radius fractures were collected, and were divided into a training set (11,144 images, 5066 AP and 6078 lateral), a validation set (3700 images, 1840 AP and 1860 lateral), and an independent test set (600 images, 300 AP and 300 lateral) after preprocessing. In the measurement of 300 AP X-rays in the independent test set for radial inclination, when the degree error between AI measurement and manual measurement was <3° and <5°, AI measurement accuracy was 83% and 93%, respectively. In 300 lateral X-rays in the test set for palmar tilt, when AI measurements had an error of <3° and <5° compared to manual measurements, corresponding accuracy rate was 78% and 90%, respectively. For 50 X-ray images, AI measurement time was (1.37±0.05) min for radial inclination while manual measurement time was (22.57±2.52) min (P<0.001); in terms of palmar tilt, the AI measurement time was (1.33±0.14) min, shorter than (23.70±2.80) min for manual measurement time (P<0.001). Average time gain rates for manual and AI measurements were 93.93% and 94.39% respectively. ConclusionAn automatic measurement model for palmar tilt and radial inclination in distal radius fractures has been established, enabling more accurate and efficient assessment as well as providing a tool to support the quantitative evaluation of the efficacy of TCM manipulative reduction and large-sample clinical research.
3.Effect of m6A demethylase ALKBH5 on proliferation and migration of cardiac fibroblasts induced by high glucose
Zhi-yan LIU ; Li-chan LIN ; Zhen-yu LIU ; Ji-ming SHA ; Peng LIU ; Sui MAO ; Yun-sen ZHANG ; Rui LI ; Ye ZHANG ; Hui TAO
Chinese Pharmacological Bulletin 2025;41(2):235-241
Aim To investigate the effect of N6-methy-ladenosine(m6A)demethylase ALKBH5 on the prolif-eration and migration of cardiac fibroblasts(CFs)in-duced by high glucose.Methods Primary CFs were isolated from neonatal mouse hearts and identified u-sing optical and confocal microscopy.Cell activation was induced using a high-glucose medium(33 mmol·L-1 glucose).An ALKBH5 overexpression model was established by transfecting CFs with an ALKBH5 ex-pression vector in a high-glucose medium.The expres-sion of ALKBH5 in CFs was assessed through immuno-fluorescence staining,Western blot and RT-qPCR.Changes in m6A levels were evaluated using Dot blot a-nalysis.Additionally,Alterations in the expression of proliferating cell nuclear antigen(PCNA)and collagenⅠ,a pivotal fibrosis indicator,were measured using Western blot.The proliferation and migration ability of CFs were assessed through EdU staining and Transwell migration assay,respectively.Results Following treatment with high glucose,the expression of ALKBH5 in CFs notably decreased,while m6A level increased.This was accompanied by a significant increase in the expression of the proliferation marker PCNA and the fi-brosis marker collagen Ⅰ.Additionally,there was a sig-nificant improvement in the ability of proliferation and migration.Overexpression of ALKBH5 resulted in a significant decrease in the expressions of PCNA and collagen Ⅰ,leading to the inhibition of both proliferation and migration in CFs.Conclusion Overexpression of ALKBH5 suppresses the expression of PCNA and colla-gen Ⅰ,consequently reducing the proliferation and mi-gration of CFs,potentially through m6A methylation modification.
4.Posterior minimally invasive surgery for treating paralytic scoliosis with pelvic obliquity in children following spinal cord injury
Yi CHEN ; Xiaodong QIN ; Zhong HE ; Zhen LIU ; Saihu MAO ; Benlong SHI ; Yong QIU ; Zezhang ZHU
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedics 2025;45(2):67-76
Objective:To compare the clinical efficacy of Minimally Invasive Surgery (MIS) and traditional Posterior Spinal Fusion (PSF) in treating children with paralytic scoliosis with pelvic obliquity (PSPO) following spinal cord injury.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted on the data of 25 patients with PSPO who underwent surgical treatment at the Drum Tower Hospital affiliated with Nanjing University Medical School from January 2017 to June 2023. The cohort included 4 males and 21 females, aged 12.3±2.8 years (range 9-14 years). Patients were divided into the MIS group (12 cases) and the PSF group (13 cases). Radiological parameters were measured preoperatively, postoperatively, and at the last follow-up. Surgical time, intraoperative blood loss, intraoperative blood transfusion volume, length of hospital stay, total hospitalization costs, and complications were recorded. The Scoliosis Research Society questionnaires-22 (SRS-22) Chinese version were used to assess patient satisfaction and efficacy.Results:There were no statistically significant differences between the MIS and PSF groups in age, gender, Risser sign, preoperative Cobb angle for scoliosis, pelvic tilt angle, or local kyphosis angle ( P>0.05). The MIS group demonstrated surgical time of 176±30 minutes, intraoperative blood loss of 300±70 ml, blood transfusion volume of 280±175 ml, and total hospitalization costs of 87'800± 13'300 yuan, all of which were lower than PSF group, with values of 280±91 minutes, 1'433±116 ml, 1'351±996 ml, and 14'8400±26'100 yuan, respectively. These differences were statistically significant ( t=3.789, P=0.001; t=29.328, P<0.001; t=3.667, P=0.001; t=7.271, P<0.001). In the MIS group, preoperative, postoperative, and last follow-up Cobb angles were 79.11°±6.74°, 35.86°±4.98°, and 36.27°±4.84° respectively; pelvic tilt angles were 24.79°±5.58°, 9.18°±3.32°, and 8.79°±2.94°; local kyphosis angles were 38.84°±4.18°, 12.96°±4.87°, and 11.43°±6.08°, respectively. Postoperative and last follow-up angles were significantly reduced compared to preoperative values, with statistically significant differences ( P<0.05). In the PSF group, preoperative, postoperative, and last follow-up Cobb angles were 82.06°±9.26°, 34.75°±5.14°, and 35.15°±5.04° respectively; pelvic tilt angles were 26.60°±6.21°, 10.12°±3.21°, and 9.91°±2.97°; local kyphosis angles were 40.92°±7.04°, 10.92°±7.26°, and 14.02°±5.58°, respectively. Differences from preoperative to postoperative measurements were statistically significant ( P<0.05). At the last follow-up, both groups showed no significant loss of scoliosis correction, and there were no statistically significant differences between the groups postoperatively or at the last follow-up ( P>0.05). In the MIS group, one case of superficial surgical site infection and one case of postoperative atelectasis occurred. In the PSF group, two cases of deep surgical site infection, one case of poor screw placement, and two cases were transferred to the ICU postoperatively due to excessive intraoperative bleeding. Preoperative SRS-22 total scores were 2.0±0.6 for PSF and 2.1±0.4 for MIS. Postoperative SRS-22 total scores (excluding satisfaction) were 3.0±0.5 for PSF and 2.9±0.3 for MIS. The within-group differences from preoperative to postoperative were statistically significant ( P<0.05), while the between-group differences from preoperative to postoperative were not statistically significant ( P>0.05). Conclusion:Compared to the PSF technique, MIS can shorten surgery time, reduce intraoperative blood loss and perioperative complications, and decrease hospitalization costs. MIS can achieve similar early clinical efficacy.
5.Selective hemivertebrae resection for lumbosacral combined with thoracolumbar/lumbar hemimetameric segmental shift deformities: efficacy and complications
Jie ZHOU ; Song LI ; Kai SUN ; Zhen LIU ; Yong QIU ; Zezhang ZHU ; Saihu MAO
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedics 2025;45(9):542-551
Objective:To explore a selective resection strategy for combined lumbosacral hemivertebra (LSHV) and thoracolumbar hemivertebra/lumbar hemivertebra (TLHV/LHV) double-balanced hemivertebra deformities.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted on 21 patients aged over 10 years with lumbosacral and thoracolumbar or lumbar combined hemimetameric segmental shift (HMMS) deformities who underwent surgery at Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital between May 2009 and October 2022. The cohort included 7 males and 14 females, with a mean surgical age of 21.5±10.9 years (range: 12-55 years) and a mean follow-up duration of 32.8±15.9 months (range: 24-74 months). Patients were divided into two groups based on preoperative coronal balance: the balanced group (Type A) and the unbalanced group (Type C). Radiographic parameters, including the major Cobb angle, lumbosacral take-off angle, kyphotic angle, coronal balance distance (CBD), and the deviation of the upper instrumented vertebra (UIV), were measured preoperatively, postoperatively, and at the final follow-up. Surgical complications were also recorded.Results:Of the 21 patients, 11 were classified as preoperatively balanced, and 10 as unbalanced. The deformity angular ratio of thoracolumbar to lumbosacral curves was significantly higher in the balanced group than in the unbalanced group (0.9±0.3 vs. 0.6±0.2; t=2.143, P=0.045). The preoperative main curve Cobb angles in the balanced and imbalanced groups were 71.3°±22.3° and 58.6°±8.2°, respectively. One week postoperatively, these angles were reduced to 38.4°±17.6° and 31.3°±5.6°, and were maintained at 40.0°±18.1° and 32.6°±5.6° at the final follow-up, all differences were statistically significant ( P<0.05). The preoperative lumbosacral take-off angles were 37.5°±9.1° in the balanced group and 36.7°±7.7° in the imbalanced group, which decreased to 18.4°±9.4° and 19.2°±5.5° at 1 week postoperatively, and remained at 19.4°±10.1° and 19.6°±5.8° at the final follow-up. These changes were also statistically significant ( P<0.05). In the balanced group, the UIV tilt angle, the CBD and the deviation of the UIV, were all significantly reduced compared to preoperative values ( P<0.05). Among the 21 patients, LSHV resection was performed in 15 cases, and TLHV/LHV resection was performed in 7 cases. Among the 15 patients with kyphosis, TLHV/LHV resection was performed in 6 cases. In the balanced group, 9 patients maintained type A postoperatively, including 4 patients with LSHV resection, 2 with TLHV/LHV resection, 2 with both LSHV and TLHV/LHV resection, 1 without resection of both hemivertebra. Two patients in the balanced group who underwent TLHV/LHV resection experienced postoperative deterioration to type C. In the unbalanced group, 8 cases with LSHV resection improved to type A, while 1 case with LSHV resection and 1 case with neither resection maintained C-type. In the LSHV resection group, CBD improved from 29.8±15.2 mm to 13.9±5.7 mm postoperatively and remained stable at 14.6±8.6 mm at final follow-up. Only 1 patient in this group experienced worsened coronal imbalance. In contrast, in the non-LSHV resection group, CBD worsened from 17.2 ± 8.7 mm to 19.7±12.1 mm postoperatively, progressing further to 20.5±13.0 mm at follow-up. Three patients in this group had worsening coronal imbalance, and 2 required revision surgery. Reported complications included 3 cases of internal fixation fracture, 1 case of proximal junctional kyphosis, and 1 case of acute incision infection. Conclusions:Effective resection of lumbosacral hemivertebrae is the preferred selective strategy, particularly for patients with preoperative coronal imbalance, as it significantly reduces the risk of worsening coronal imbalance and internal fixation-related complications. However, selective resection involving only TLHV or LHV without addressing LSHV in preoperatively balanced patients may increase the risk of postoperative coronal imbalance.
6.Surgical efficacy evaluation of NF1-related dystrophic lumbosacral deformity: comparative analysis between pelvic and non-pelvic fixation
Song LI ; Zezhang ZHU ; Jie ZHOU ; Saihu MAO ; Shuqi SUN ; Zhen LIU ; Benlong SHI ; Xu SUN ; Jun QIAO ; Yong QIU
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedics 2025;45(9):604-612
Objective:To analyze the selection of internal fixation methods, surgical outcomes, and complications in patients with Neurofibromatosis Type 1 (NF1) accompanied by dystrophic lumbosacral deformities, and to evaluate the indications for pelvic fixation.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted on 21 patients with NF1 and associated dystrophic lumbosacral malformations (L 4 to sacrum) who underwent spinal deformity correction surgery at Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital from January 2009 to November 2022. The cohort included 11 males and 10 females, with a mean surgical age of 15.4±4.7 years (range, 7-24 years). Patients were divided into two groups based on whether pelvic fixation was performed: 10 patients in the non-pelvic fixation group (NP group) and 11 in the pelvic fixation group (P group), where fixation involved second sacral alar-iliac (S 2AI) screws or iliac screws. Radiographic parameters, including the Cobb angle of the lumbosacral fractional curve, main curve, and focal kyphosis, were compared preoperatively, postoperatively, and at the last follow-up. Results:The NP group had a significantly lower mean age (13.2±4.9 years) compared to the P group (17.5±3.5 years; t=2.287, P=0.034). Spinal instability (rotational subluxation or spondylolisthesis) due to dystrophic changes was observed in 2 patients in the NP group and 8 in the P group, a statistically significant difference (χ 2=5.838, P=0.030). In the P group, five patients underwent unilateral fixation and six underwent bilateral fixation. Implant types included 2 cases with iliac screws, 1 case with iliac screws plus S 2AI, and 8 cases with S 2AI screws alone. The utilization rate of hooks was significantly higher in the NP group (12.6%±11.5%) compared to the P group (3.5%±6.9%; t=2.230, P=0.038). The preoperative Cobb angle of the lumbosacral fractional curve was significantly smaller in the NP group (13.8°±9.0°) than in the P group (25.5°±13.9°; t=2.228, P=0.039). Postoperatively, the angles were corrected to 6.3°±6.1° and 6.4°±5.3°, respectively ( t=0.901, P=0.969), with correction rates of 57.3%±13.6% and 74.1%±17.8% ( t=2.369, P=0.029). At final follow-up, the angles remained stable (6.6°±6.6° vs. 6.3°±4.8°; t=0.116, P=0.909). For the main curve, preoperative Cobb angles were 52.5°±15.1° (NP) and 61.1°±16.9° (P; t=1.200, P=0.246), corrected to 31.3°±13.8° and 28.0°±8.4°, respectively ( t=0.646, P=0.526). Correction rates were 41.3%±13.0% in the NP group and 53.2%±11.6% in the P group ( t=2.206, P=0.037). At the final follow-up, these values were 32.4°±14.2° and 31.7°±10.3° ( t=0.133, P=0.896). Focal kyphosis, seen in 9 patients, was corrected from 19.7°±10.9° preoperatively to -13.6°±9.5° postoperatively, and remained at -14.1°±9.6° at the final follow-up ( F=33.547, P<0.001). Multi-rod systems were used in 6 cases (NP group) and 7 cases (P group), with no significant difference (χ 2=0.153, P=0.926). Two patients in the NP group developed coronal decompensation three years postoperatively, and one required revision surgery. In the P group, rod breakage occurred in 3 patients, two of whom underwent revision. Conclusions:Dystrophic rotational subluxation or spondylolisthesis of the lumbosacral spine is a primary indication for pelvic fixation in patients with NF1-associated deformities. However, complications related to internal fixation remain common. The combined use of a multi-rod screw-hook hybrid system, particularly when extending across the lumbosacral region, may reduce the risk of instrumentation failure.
7.Development of a visualizable machine learning model for mechanical complication risk in adult spinal deformity surgery
Jie LI ; Zhen TIAN ; Zhong HE ; Xiaodong QIN ; Jun QIAO ; Saihu MAO ; Benlong SHI ; Yong QIU ; Zezhang ZHU ; Zhen LIU
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedics 2025;45(17):1137-1146
Objective:To predict mechanical complications (MC) following spinal deformity surgery for adult spine deformity (ASD) using machine learning models, identify key risk factors, and develop a visualizable tool for individualized risk assessment.Methods:Clinical and radiological data from 525 patients with ASD who underwent surgery in our hospital between January 2017 and December 2021 were collected. Patients were randomly assigned to a training set (70%) and a test set (30%) for model development. The cohort included 88 males and 437 females, with a mean age of 42.2±18.1 years. Variables included demographic data, comorbidities, local and systemic radiological parameters, paraspinal muscle fat infiltration (FI), and vertebral bone quality (VBQ) scores. Multiple machine learning algorithms: Random Forest (RF), Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB), Light GBM, Support Vector Machine (SVM), XGBoost (XGB), and Logistic Regression (LR) were trained and evaluated. Model performance was compared using the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and precision-recall curve (PRC). SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) was used to rank risk factors, while LIME (Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations) was applied to visualize MC risk in individual cases.Results:Of the 525 patients, 135 (25.7%) developed postoperative MC. Among these, 80 (59.3%) experienced proximal junction kyphosis or failure (PJK/PJF), 7 (5.2%) had distal junction kyphosis or failure (DJK/DJF), 28 (20.7%) sustained rod fractures, and 29 (21.5%) showed significant loss of correction. In the validation cohort, the RF model achieved the highest area under the curve (AUC=0.80), followed by GNB (0.77), XGB (0.76), LR (0.74), LightGBM (0.73), and SVM (0.66). The RF model also demonstrated the best PRC value (0.58), highest sensitivity (0.65), and lowest Brier score (0.20). GNB, Light GBM, and LR models achieved the highest accuracy (0.78 each), while LightGBM exhibited the highest specificity (0.93). SHAP analysis identified higher preoperative VBQ scores, larger T 1 pelvic angle (TPA), and higher paraspinal muscle FI as the main risk factors for MC. Based on the RF model, a LIME-based tool was successfully constructed for individualized MC risk estimation. Conclusion:The RF model demonstrated the best overall predictive performance for MC. A machine learning-based prediction model has the potential to provide valuable guidance for surgical decision-making in ASD patients.
8.Analysis and application thinking of standards for 500 kinds of traditional Chinese medicine formula granules on base of industrial practice.
Yong LIU ; Jun ZHANG ; Xin-Hai DONG ; Lin ZHOU ; Dong-Mei SUN ; Fu-Lin MAO ; Zhen-Yu LI ; Lei HUANG ; Jin-Lai LIU
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(5):1427-1436
Following the release of the Technical Requirements on Quality Control and Standard Establishment of Traditional Chinese Medicine Formula Granules by the National Medical Products Administration in 2021, Chinese Pharmacopoeia Commission has promulgated 296 national drug standards so far, and most provinces have started the work of establishing provincial standards as supplements. The promulgation of standards fostered high-quality development of the industry. Since the implementation of national and provincial standards for more than three years, enterprises have gained deep understanding and hands-on experiences on the characteristics, technical requirements, production process, and quality control of traditional Chinese medicine(TCM) formula granules. Meanwhile, challenges have emerged restricting the high-quality development of this industry, including how to formulate quality control strategies for medicinal materials and decoction pieces, how to reduce manufacturing costs, and how to improve the pass rate and product stability under high standards. Based on the work experiences from standard management and process research, this article analyzed the distribution of sources, processing methods, dry extract rate ranges, process requirements for volatile oil-containing decoction pieces, control measures of safety indices, characteristics and trends of setting characteristic chromatograms or fingerprints, characteristics and trends of setting content ranges, and main differences between national standards and provincial standards. On the one hand, this article aims to present main characteristics for deeply understanding different indicators in standards and provide basic ideas for establishing quality and process control systems. On the other hand, from the perspective of industrial practice, suggestions are put forward on the important aspects that need to be focused on in the quality and process control of TCM formula granules.
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/chemistry*
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Quality Control
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Medicine, Chinese Traditional/standards*
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China
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Drug Industry/standards*
9.Kitchen Ventilation Attenuate the Association of Solid Fuel Use with Sarcopenia: A Cross-Sectional and Prospective Study.
Ying Hao YUCHI ; Wei LIAO ; Jia QIU ; Rui Ying LI ; Ning KANG ; Xiao Tian LIU ; Wen Qian HUO ; Zhen Xing MAO ; Jian HOU ; Lei ZHANG ; Chong Jian WANG
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2025;38(4):511-515
10.Construction of a nomogram prediction model using risk factors for tibial tuberosity avulsion fractures in adolescents
Tao QIAN ; Yao LIU ; Jun WEN ; Yicong LIU ; Cong LIU ; Bingqing MAO ; Yunfang ZHEN
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedic Trauma 2025;27(9):789-797
Objective:To investigate the risk factors for tibial tuberosity avulsion fractures (TTAF) in adolescents and develop a clinically applicable nomogram prediction model for rapid risk assessment and identification of high-risk populations.Methods:A retrospective study was conducted to analyze the data of 58 adolescent patients (61 sides) who had been treated for TTAF at Department of Orthopaedics, Children's Hospital of Soochow University between January 2018 and October 2024. There were 57 males and 1 female, with an age of 14.0 (13.0, 14.0) years, designated as the observation group. The control group enrolled another contemporary 52 patients who, matched with age and gender, had a clear history of trauma and clinical symptoms of knee injury but no bone continuity destruction of the knee joint by the final imaging examination. They were 50 males and 2 females, with an age of 13.5 (12.0, 15.0) years. Baseline characteristics, pre-injury physical activity profiles, and imaging-derived anatomical parameters were compared between the 2 groups. Variables with P<0.05 in the univariate analysis were included in a multivariable logistic regression model to identify independent risk factors for adolescent TTAF, based on which a nomogram prediction model was developed and internally validated using bootstrapping (1,000 resamples). Results:Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified the following independent risk factors for adolescent TTAF: short-term high-frequency exercise ( OR=5.653, 95% CI: 1.068 to 29.918, P=0.042), a large body mass index (BMI) ( OR=1.445, 95% CI: 1.197 to 1.743, P<0.001), a large posterior tibial slope (PTS) ( OR=1.637, 95% CI: 1.140 to 2.353, P=0.008), and an increased tibial tubercle-trochlear groove (TT-TG) distance ( OR=1.227, 95% CI: 1.021 to 1.474, P=0.029). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.927 for the model incorporating CT-derived variables and 0.907 for the model excluding CT variables. Decision curve analysis (DCA) and calibration curves demonstrated favorable clinical utility and alignment between predicted and observed outcomes in both models. Conclusions:Short-term high-frequency exercise, a large body mass index, a large PTS, and an increased TT-TG distance are risk factors for adolescent TTAF. The established prediction model is suitable for rapid clinical assessment and demonstrates good predictive capability.

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