1.Dingchan Granule (定颤颗粒) for Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation with Syndrome of Qi Stagnation and Blood Stasis:A Randomized,Double-Blinded,Placebo-Controlled Clinical Trial
Xiaozhen CHENG ; Xingjuan CHEN ; Weina LI ; Lu XIAO ; Yunhan WANG ; Yun XU ; Yueyue NIU ; Ling FENG
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;66(12):1233-1240
ObjectiveTo observe the clinical effectiveness and safety of Dingchan Granule (定颤颗粒) for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation with syndrome of qi stagnation and blood stasis. MethodsUsing a randomised, double-blind, placebo controlled study method, 90 patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation with qi stagnation and blood stasis syndrome were divided into 45 cases each in the treatment group and the control group. Both groups were given conventional western medicine treatment, and the treatment group was additionally treated with Dingchan Granule, while the control group was treated with Dingchan Granule placebo, both of which were taken orally for 8 g each time twice a day. Both groups were treated for 8 weeks. We compared the clinical effectiveness, the improvement of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) symptoms and the recovery rate of atrial fibrillation between the two groups. We compared the number and duration of atrial fibrillation episodes, TCM symptoms score, atrial fibrillation symptom classification, 24-hour average ventricular rate, Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), anxiety index, depression index before and after treatment, and evaluated the safety of the two groups. ResultsThe total clinical effectiveness rate in the treatment group was 82.22% (37/45), which was better than 60.00% (27/45) in the control group (P<0.05). The total effective rate of TCM syndrome effectiveness in the treatment group was 88.89% (40/45), which was better than 66.67% (30/45) in the control group (P<0.05); and the rate of atrial fibrillation regression in the treatment group was 26.67% (12/45), better than 6.67% (3/45) in the control group (P<0.05). The number and duration of atrial fibrillation episodes in both groups were significantly decreased (P<0.01), and the number and duration of atrial fibrillation episodes in the treatment group were lower than those in the control group (P<0.01). The TCM syndrome scores of both groups after treatment were significantly lower than before treatment (P<0.01), and the scores of the treatment group was lower than those of the control group (P<0.05). The severity of atrial fibrillation symptoms and the grading of atrial fibrillation symptoms in both groups after treatment were improved (P<0.01), and the degree of symptom improvement in the treatment group was better than that in the control group (P<0.01). The 24-hour average ventricular rate of both groups after treatment was significantly lower (P<0.01). The PSQI, anxiety index and depression index of the treatment group were all lower than before treatment (P<0.01), while the PSQI and anxiety index of the control group were both lower than before treatment (P<0.01 or P<0.05), the PSQI, anxiety index and depression index of the treatment group being lower than those of the control group (P<0.05 or P<0.01). No adverse events occurred in both groups, and no abnormalities were observed in blood, urine, stool routine, liver and kidney function, and coagulation function indexes. ConclusionDingchan Granule for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation with qi stagnation and blood stasis syndrome can alleviate clinical symptom, improve TCM symptom scores, increase atrial fibrillation recovery rate, stabilise the average ventricular rate, and significantly improve the quality of sleep, alleviate the anxiety and depression, with a good safety profile.
2.Measles, rubella, and mumps antibody seroprevalence among the children aged 18 years and younger in Karamay City, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region
Meili WU ; Xia LI ; Ling ZUO ; Liping RONG ; Jing WANG ; Feng WANG
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(3):239-243
ObjectiveTo understand the measles, rubella, and mumps antibody seroprevalence among the children aged 18 years and younger in Karamay City, and to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination. MethodsA stratified whole cluster random sampling method was used to investigate the antibody seroprevalence of measles, rubella, and mumps among the healthy children aged 18 years and younger in Karamay City, and to further analyze the positive antibody rates and the geometric mean concentration (GMC) of antibodies. ResultsA total of 620 people were investigated, and the positive rates of IgG to measles, rubella, and mumps were 72.74%,62.26%, and 86.45%, respectively, with a GMC of308.94 mIU·mL-1, 21.81 mIU·mL-1, and 249.10 U·mL-1. There were statistically significant differences in the positive rates of antibodies to measles, rubella, and mumps among different age groups (χ2measles=76.707, P<0.001; χ2rubella=60.804, P<0.001; χ2mumps=35.407, P<0.001). The differences in positive rates were statistically significant among individuals with different intervals from the time of their last dose vaccination (χ2measles=60.533, P<0.001; χ2rubella=46.331, P<0.001; χ2mumps=22.825, P<0.001). ConclusionThe antibody levels of measles, rubella and mumps among the people aged 18 years and younger in Karamay City are found to be low. Two doses of measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine should be given to children born before 2020, and if necessary, supplementary immunization with MMR vaccine should be carried out before they are enrolled in nursery and kindergarten. Additionally, regular population-based antibody surveillance should be conducted to promptly identify the people with weak immunity, which is conducive to effectively reducing and controlling the epidemic situation of measles, rubella and mumps in schools.
3.Aerobic Exercise Improves Cognitive Function of Aging Mice by Regulating Intestinal Flora-metabolite Network
An-Feng WANG ; Tong WU ; Hu ZHANG ; Ji-Ling LIANG ; Ning CHEN
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2025;52(6):1484-1498
ObjectiveThis study aimed to explore the effects of aerobic exercise on cognitive function in aging mice and to elucidate the underlying molecular mechanisms by which aerobic exercise ameliorates cognitive decline through the regulation of gut microbiota-metabolite network. By providing novel insights into the interplay between exercise, gut microbiota, and cognitive health, this research seeks to offer a robust theoretical foundation for developing anti-aging strategies and personalized exercise interventions targeting aging-related cognitive dysfunction. MethodsUsing naturally aged C57BL/6 mice as the experimental model, this study employed a multi-omics approach combining 16S rRNA sequencing and wide-targeted metabolomics analysis. A total of 18 mice were divided into 3 groups: young control (YC, 4-month-old), old control (OC, 21-month-old), and old+exercise (OE, 21-month-old with 12 weeks of moderate-intensity treadmill training) groups. Behavioral assessments, including the Morris water maze (MWM) test, were conducted to evaluate cognitive function. Histopathological examinations of brain tissue sections provided morphological evidence of neuronal changes. Fecal samples were collected for gut microbiota and metabolite profiling via 16S rRNA sequencing and ultra-performance liquid chromatography coupled with quadrupole-time-of-flight mass spectrometry (UPLC-QTOF-MS). Data were analyzed using a combination of statistical and bioinformatics tools to identify differentially abundant microbial taxa and metabolites and to construct interaction networks between them. ResultsBehavioral tests revealed that 12 weeks of aerobic exercise significantly improved spatial learning and memory capacity of aged mice, as evidenced by reduced escape latency and increased target area exploration and platform crossings in the MWM. Histopathological analysis demonstrated that exercise mitigated aging-related neuronal damage in the hippocampus, enhancing neuronal density and morphology. 16S rRNA sequencing indicated that exercise increased gut microbiota α‑diversity and enriched beneficial bacterial genera, including Bifidobacterium, Parabacteroides, and Rikenella. Metabolomics analysis identified 32 differentially regulated metabolites between OC and OE groups, with 94 up-regulated and 30 down-regulated in the OE group when compared with OC group. These metabolites were primarily involved in energy metabolism reprogramming (e.g., L-homocitrulline), antioxidant defense (e.g., L-carnosine), neuroprotection (e.g., lithocholic acid), and DNA repair (e.g., ADP-ribose). Network analysis further revealed strong positive correlations between specific bacteria and metabolites, such as Parabacteroides with ADP-ribose and Bifidobacterium with lithocholic acid, suggesting potential neuroprotective pathways mediated by the gut microbiota-metabolite axis. ConclusionThis study provides comprehensive evidence that aerobic exercise elicits cognitive benefits in aging mice by modulating the gut microbiota-metabolite network. These findings highlight three key mechanisms: (1) the proliferation of beneficial gut bacteria enhances metabolic reprogramming to boost DNA repair pathways; (2) elevated neuroinflammation-inhibiting factors reduce neurodegenerative changes; and (3) enhanced antioxidant defenses maintain neuronal homeostasis. These results underscore the critical role of the “microbiota-metabolite-brain” axis in mediating the cognitive benefits of aerobic exercise. This study not only advances our understanding of the gut-brain axis in aging but also offers a scientific basis for developing personalized exercise and probiotic-based interventions targeting aging-related cognitive decline. Future research should further validate these mechanisms in non-human primates and human clinical trials to establish the translational potential of exercise-induced gut microbiota-metabolite modulation for combating neurodegenerative diseases.
4.Spatiotemporal clustering analysis and ARIMA-SVM model prediction of hand-foot-mouth disease in Zibo City in 2018- 2023
Ming FENG ; Ling ZHANG ; Tao SUN ; Haixia CAO ; Haining ZHU ; Ling WANG
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2025;36(6):76-80
Objective To analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Zibo City, to explore the key incidence areas, and to find a suitable prediction model, so as to provide reference for the prevention and control of HFMD. Methods The spatiotemporal clustering characteristics of HFMD in Zibo City from 2018 to 2023 were analyzed by using SaTScan 10.0.2 software and ArcGIS 10.7 software. A combination model of ARIMA and SVM was established, and the prediction results were verified and compared. Results Spatial clustering analysis showed that there was spatial clustering of the incidence of HFMD in various townships of Zibo City from 2020 to 2022. The high-high clustering areas and Getis-Ord hot spot areas were mainly concentrated in some main urban areas of Zhangdian District, Zichuan District, and Huantai County. A total of 2-5 aggregation areas were detected by spatiotemporal scanning analysis. The first-type aggregation areas were mainly concentrated in the towns of Zhangdian District, Huantai County, Linzi District, Zhoucun District and Gaoxin District. The aggregation months were July, August, September and November. The model prediction results showed that the ARIMA-SVM combined model was more accurate than the traditional ARIMA model. Conclusion There is a spatiotemporal clustering of hand-foot-mouth disease in Zibo City. The ARIMA-SVM combined model can be used to predict the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Zibo City, and to strengthen health education and disease monitoring in high-risk areas and populations during the epidemic months.
5.Clinical trial of Morinda officinalis oligosaccharides in the continuation treatment of adults with mild and moderate depression
Shu-Zhe ZHOU ; Zu-Cheng HAN ; Xiu-Zhen WANG ; Yan-Qing CHEN ; Ya-Ling HU ; Xue-Qin YU ; Bin-Hong WANG ; Guo-Zhen FAN ; Hong SANG ; Ying HAI ; Zhi-Jie JIA ; Zhan-Min WANG ; Yan WEI ; Jian-Guo ZHU ; Xue-Qin SONG ; Zhi-Dong LIU ; Li KUANG ; Hong-Ming WANG ; Feng TIAN ; Yu-Xin LI ; Ling ZHANG ; Hai LIN ; Bin WU ; Chao-Ying WANG ; Chang LIU ; Jia-Fan SUN ; Shao-Xiao YAN ; Jun LIU ; Shou-Fu XIE ; Mao-Sheng FANG ; Wei-Feng MI ; Hong-Yan ZHANG
The Chinese Journal of Clinical Pharmacology 2024;40(6):815-819
Objective To observe the efficacy and safety of Morinda officinalis oligosaccharides in the continuation treatment of mild and moderate depression.Methods An open,single-arm,multi-center design was adopted in our study.Adult patients with mild and moderate depression who had received acute treatment of Morinda officinalis oligosaccharides were enrolled and continue to receive Morinda officinalis oligosaccharides capsules for 24 weeks,the dose remained unchanged during continuation treatment.The remission rate,recurrence rate,recurrence time,and the change from baseline to endpoint of Hamilton Depression Scale(HAMD),Hamilton Anxiety Scale(HAMA),Clinical Global Impression-Severity(CGI-S)and Arizona Sexual Experience Scale(ASEX)were evaluated.The incidence of treatment-related adverse events was reported.Results The scores of HAMD-17 at baseline and after treatment were 6.60±1.87 and 5.85±4.18,scores of HAMA were 6.36±3.02 and 4.93±3.09,scores of CGI-S were 1.49±0.56 and 1.29±0.81,scores of ASEX were 15.92±4.72 and 15.57±5.26,with significant difference(P<0.05).After continuation treatment,the remission rate was 54.59%(202 cases/370 cases),and the recurrence rate was 6.49%(24 cases/370 cases),the recurrence time was(64.67±42.47)days.The incidence of treatment-related adverse events was 15.35%(64 cases/417 cases).Conclusion Morinda officinalis oligosaccharides capsules can be effectively used for the continuation treatment of mild and moderate depression,and are well tolerated and safe.
6.Clinical trial of spironolactone combined with sacubitril/valsartan in the treatment of patients with hypertensive nephropathy
Lin-Lin WANG ; Jia-Li FENG ; Sheng-Jun LIU ; Zhen-Hua QIAO ; Xiu-Ling JIA ; Xiao-Li HAN
The Chinese Journal of Clinical Pharmacology 2024;40(8):1091-1095
Objective To observe the clinical efficacy and safety of spironolactone combined with sacubitril/valsartan in the treatment of patients with hypertensive nephropathy.Methods The patients with hypertensive nephropathy were randomly divided into control group and treatment group.The control group was treated with sacubitril/valsartan(100-200 mg·d-1 in the morning),and treatment group was combined with low-dose spironolactone treatment(20 mg·d-1 in the morning)on the basis of control group.Both groups were treated continuously for 12 weeks.The clinical efficacy was compared;the blood pressure,urinary microalbumin(mAlb),urinary β2 microglobulin(β2-MG)and serum cystatin C(Cys-C),transforming growth factor-β1(TGF-β1),connective tissue growth factor(CTGF)and angiotensin Ⅱ(Ang Ⅱ)and adverse drug reactions were observed before and after treatment.Results There were 87 cases in treatment group and 86 cases in control group were included respectively.After treatment,the total effective rates in treatment group and control group were 95.40%(83 cases/87 cases)and 82.56%(71 cases/86 cases),with significant difference(P<0.05).After treatment,the systolic blood pressure values in treatment group and control group were(124.65±9.65)and(130.27±8.93)mmHg,the diastolic blood pressure values were(75.08±7.14)and(80.45±7.35)mmHg,urinary mAlb levels were(42.58±5.65)and(51.28±6.64)mg·L-1,urinary β2-MG levels were(0.46±0.17)and(0.75±0.25)mg·L-1,24 h urinary protein quantitation levels were(138.49±46.64)and(216.48±65.27)mg,serum Cys-C levels were(0.63±0.26)and(0.85±0.24)mg·L-1,TGF-β1 levels were(98.67±21.43)and(112.46±26.72)pg·mL-1,CTGF levels were(1 206.54±236.56)and(1 340.51±248.25)pg·mL-1,Ang Ⅱ levels were(101.55±17.62)and(115.65±20.08)pg·mL-1,all with significant difference(all P<0.05).The incidence of adverse drug reactions in treatment group and control group were 6.90%(6 cases/87 cases)and 2.33%(2 cases/86 cases),with no significant difference(P>0.05).Conclusion Compared with sacubitril/valsartan alone,spironolactone combined with sacubitril/valsartan can better reduce blood pressure,improve renal function and delay progression of renal fibrosis in the treatment of hypertensive nephropathy,and has definite efficacy,with good safety.
7.Study on the anti-inflammatory mechanism of active ingredients of Gubi Formula in the treatment of osteoarthritis
Peng DING ; Feng-Xiang TIAN ; Li XU ; Yu GE ; Fu-Rong WANG ; Yu-Jie BAO ; Ling-Ling ZHOU
The Chinese Journal of Clinical Pharmacology 2024;40(14):2053-2057
Objective To explore the anti-inflammatory mechanism of the active ingredients of Gubi Formula in treating osteoarthritis.Methods Normal human chondrocytes were cultured in vitro,and lipopolysaccharide(LPS)stimulated inflammation.The cells were divided into control group(normal culture),model group(10 μg·mL-1 LPS),quercetin group(10 μg·mL-1 LPS+8 μmol·L-1 quercetin),formononetin group(10 μg·mL-1 LPS+50 μmol·L-1 formononetin),naringin group(10 μg·mL-1 LPS+10 μmol·L-1 naringin),asperosaponin Ⅵ group(10 μg·mL-1 LPS+50 pmol·L-1 asperosaponin Ⅵ),β-ecdysterone group(10 μg·mL-1 LPS+50 μmol·L-1β-ecdysterone).Cell counting kit-8(CCK8)was used to detect the viability of chondrocytes.Western blot was used to detect the expression of nuclear factor NF-kappa-B p65 subunit(p65),nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2(Nrf2)nuclear protein.Results The cell viability of control group,model group,quercetin group,formononetin group,naringin group,Dipsacoside Ⅵ group,β-ecdysterone group were(103.10±8.55)%,(62.41±2.35)%,(76.92±1.74)%,(77.01±0.60)%,(80.39±3.06)%,(79.43±0.94)%,(55.20±0.99)%;the relative expression of Nrf2 protein were 1.00±0.00,1.01±0.09,1.30±0.15,0.91±0.15,1.23±0.25,0.71±0.19,1.51±0.13,1.26±0.15;the relative expression of P65 protein were 1.00±0.00,2.24±0.85,0.74±0.33,1.49±0.29,0.97±0.06,1.33±0.07,1.67±0.22,1.52±0.17;the relative expression of inflammatory mediators iNOS were 1.00±0.00,1.52±0.27,1.07±0.24,1.25±0.12,1.01±0.30,1.44±0.12,1.07±0.18,1.11±0.16.The above indexes in quercetin group,formononetin group and naringin group were significantly different from those in model group(P<0.05,P<0.01 and P<0.001).Compared with the model group,there was no significant difference in the above indexes between the Asperosaponin Ⅵ group and theβ-ecdysterone group(all P>0.05).Conclusion The active components of Gubi Formula,including quercetin,mangiferin,and naringin,can activate Nrf2-HO-1 signaling and inhibit the activation of the Nuclear factor-κB(NF-κB)pathway plays an anti-inflammatory role in alleviating osteoarthritis.
8.Finite element model establishment and stress analysis of lumbar-sacral intervertebral disc in ankylosing spondylitis
Zhijie KANG ; Zhenhua CAO ; Yangyang XU ; Yunfeng ZHANG ; Feng JIN ; Baoke SU ; Lidong WANG ; Ling TONG ; Qinghua LIU ; Yuan FANG ; Lirong SHA ; Liang LIANG ; Mengmeng LI ; Yifei DU ; Lin LIN ; Haiyan WANG ; Xiaohe LI ; Zhijun LI
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2024;28(6):840-846
BACKGROUND:Ankylosing spondylitis is a chronic inflammatory disease with chronic rheumatic immunity.Soft tissue ossification and fusion and spinal stiffness can cause biomechanical changes. OBJECTIVE:To reconstruct the lumbar-sacral intervertebral disc in ankylosing spondylitis patients with lumbar kyphosis by finite element analysis,and to study the range of motion of each segment of T11-S1 and the biomechanical characteristics of annulus fibrosus and nucleus pulposus. METHODS:The imaging data were obtained from an ankylosing spondylitis patient with lumbar kyphosis.The original CT image data of continuously scanned spine were imported into Mimics 21.0 in DICOM format,and T11-S1 was reconstructed respectively.The established model was imported into 3-Matic software in the format of"Stl"to reconstruct the intervertebral disc,and the fibrous intervertebral disc model was obtained.The improved model was further imported into Hypermesh software,and the vertebra,nucleus pulposus,annulus fibrosus and ligament were mesh-divided.After the material properties were given,the model was imported into ABAQUS software to observe the range of motion of each vertebral body in seven different working conditions of T11-S1,and analyze the biomechanical characteristics of each segment of annulus fibrosus and nucleus pulposus. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)The range of motion of L1 vertebrae was higher than that of other vertebrae under six different working conditions:extension,forward flexion,rotation(left and right),and lateral flexion(left and right).The maximum range of motion was 2.18° during L1 vertebral flexion,and the minimum range of motion was 0.12° during L5 vertebral extension.(2)The annular fiber flexion at L2-L3 segments was greater than the extension(P<0.05),and the annular fiber flexion at L3-L4 and L4-L5 segments was less than the extension(P<0.05).The left rotation of L1-L2 annular fibers was greater than the right rotation(P<0.05).The left flexion of the annulus was greater than the right flexion in L1-L2,L2-L3,L3-L4,L4-L5 and L5-S1 segments(P<0.05).(3)The nucleus pulposus stresses of T11-L12,L1-L2,L2-L3,L3-L4 and L4-L5 segments in forward flexion were greater than in extension(P<0.05).The left rotation of T12-L1 and L3-L4 segments was smaller than the right rotation(P<0.05),and that of T11-T12,L1-L2,and L2-L3 segments was larger than the right rotation(P<0.05).The left flexion was larger than the right flexion in the T11-S1 segment.(4)It is concluded that in ankylosing spondylitis patients with lumbar kyphosis,the minimum range of motion of the vertebral body is located at the L5 vertebral body in extension.To prevent fractures,it is recommended to avoid exercise in the extension position.During the onset of lumbar kyphosis in patients with ankylosing spondylitis,the maximum stress of the annulus fibrosus and nucleus pulposus is located in the L1-L2 segment,which is fixed and will not alter with the change of body position.The late surgical treatment and correction of deformity should focus on releasing the pressure of the annulus fibrosus and nucleus pulposus in this segment to avoid the rupture of the annulus fibrosus and the injury of the nucleus pulposus.
9.Construction and finite element analysis of normal and osteoporotic hip models
Sutong GUO ; Dehong FENG ; Yu GUO ; Ling WANG ; Yujian DING ; Yi LIU ; Zhengying QIAN ; Mingyang LI
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2024;28(9):1342-1346
BACKGROUND:Bone mineral density is the clinical gold standard for determining bone strength,but bone mineral density is less sensitive to changes in bone mass,with large changes in bone mineral density only occurring when bone mass is significantly reduced,so bone mineral density has limited ability to predict changes in bone strength and fracture risk. OBJECTIVE:A model of the normal and osteoporotic hip joint was developed to analyze the stresses and deformation in the hip of normal and osteoporotic patients under single-leg standing conditions. METHODS:A healthy adult female volunteer at the age of 36 years was selected as the study subject.The CT data of the hip joint of this volunteer were obtained and saved in DICOM format.The hip joint model was reconstructed in three dimensions,and the material properties were assigned by the gray value assignment method to obtain the normal and osteoporotic hip joint models according to the empirical formula.The same boundary conditions and loads were set to simulate the stresses and deformation in the normal and osteoporotic hip joints in the single-leg standing position. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)In the finite element model of the normal and osteoporotic hip,the stress distribution was more concentrated in the medial region of the femoral neck.(2)In the hip bone,the stress distribution was mainly concentrated in the upper part of the acetabulum.(3)The stress peaks in the medial femoral neck and upper acetabulum were larger in the normal hip model than in the osteoporotic hip model,probably due to the reduced bone strength of the osteoporotic bone.(4)The peak Von Mises of both normal and osteoporotic hip models were concentrated on the medial femoral neck,and the peak Von Mises of the hip bone was smaller,indicating that the overall effect of osteoporosis on hip bone stresses was relatively small.(5)In terms of deformation in the single-leg standing position,the maximum deformation in the normal hip model was located at the acetabulum and femoral head,and the maximum deformation was located at the upper part of the greater trochanter of the femur.(6)It is suggested that the finite element analysis method to model the values of parameters related to bone tissue in osteoporosis may improve clinical prediction of bone strength changes and fracture risk.It is explained from the biomechanical view that the intertrochanteric femur and femoral neck are good sites for osteoporotic hip fractures.
10.Application of moving epidemic method in evaluation of influenza epidemic intensity in Zhejiang Province from 2012 to 2023
FENG Yan ; XU Zenghao ; LING Feng ; JIN Jialie ; WANG Xiaoxiao ; SHANG Xiaopeng ; SUN Jimin
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;36(10):829-833
Objective:
To estimate the epidemic threshold and graded intensity thresholds of influenza in Zhejiang Province from 2012 to 2023 using the moving epidemic method (MEM), and evaluate the intensity of influenza epidemics, so as to provide the reference for influenza prevention and control in Zhejiang Province.
Methods:
The positive rates of influenza virus per week during the influenza epidemic seasons (from 40th week to 20th week of the following year) in Zhejiang Province from 2012 to 2022 were collected through the Chinese Influenza Surveillance Information System. A MEM model was established and optimized using cross-validation. The maximum accumulated rates percentage was used to divide the epidemic into pre-epidemic, epidemic, and post-epidemic periods, and to estimate the epidemic thresholds and graded intensity thresholds. The intensity of influenza epidemics in Zhejiang Province during the 2022-2023 epidemic season were assessed.
Results:
The positive rates of influenza virus in five epidemic seasons from 2012 to 2022 were included in the model. The MEM model performed best when the parameter δ was set to 1.5, with a sensitivity of 0.971, a specificity of 0.745, and a Youden's index of 0.716. According to the model analysis, the epidemic beginning and ending thresholds of influenza in Zhejiang Province during the 2022-2023 epidemic season were 19.32% and 10.92%, respectively, and the medium, high, and extremely high intensity thresholds were 48.65%, 63.49%, and 68.47%, respectively. During 2022-2023, the influenza epidemic was in the pre-epidemic period from the 40th week in 2022 to the 7th week in 2023; the epidemic period was from the 8th to the 18th week, the epidemic intensity was low in the 8th week and increased to a high level in the 9th week, and reached to a extremely high level from the 10th to the 13th week, then fell to the high and the medium level in the 14th week and 15th week, respectively, and fell to a low level from the 16th to the 18th week; the influenza epidemic entered the post-epidemic period since the 19th week.
Conclusion
MEM could be applied for evaluation of influenza epidemic intensity, providing the reference for early identification and taking graded preventive and control measures.


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