1.Development and evaluation of classification system for drug-related problems in China
Shuang ZOU ; Tingting LU ; Lei BAO ; Yun LIAO ; Ling LI ; Ping ZHANG
China Pharmacy 2026;37(3):371-376
OBJECTIVE To establish a Chinese drug-related problem (DRP) classification system applicable to pharmacist-led pharmaceutical care in China, providing pharmacists with an effective and practical tool for pharmaceutical care. METHODS A multi-stage process was employed to construct the DRP classification system, including literature review and analysis, comparison of existing classification systems, refinement of classification items and framework development, two rounds of standard case validation, expert discussion, and system revision. The Fleiss′ kappa test was used to calculate the consistency coefficient κ, assessing the reliability of pharmacists participating in evaluating the classification system. An electronic questionnaire comprising six items was employed to evaluate the system’s applicability. RESULTS The constructed Chinese DRP classification system comprised six sections [problem(including potential problems), DRP evaluation, cause (including possible causes of potential problems), intervention, acceptance of intervention and DRP status], with 24 primary codes and 96 secondary codes. In the first round of case validation, κ values exceeded 0.4 for all sections except “intervention” and “DRP status”. In the second round, κ values exceeded 0.4 for all sections. In the applicability evaluation of the classification system, positive ratings (“strongly agree” or “agree”) exceeded 85% for all items. Specifically, positive ratings for“the classification system can provide appropriate category selection”,“ the classification system is comprehensive”,“ the classification system is convenient to use” and “the classification system is highly satisfactory” exceeded 92%. CONCLUSIONS The Chinese DRP classification system developed demonstrates both high reliability and applicability, providing an effective and practical classification tool for pharmacists in China to conduct pharmaceutical care.
2.Zuogui Wan Improve Ovarian Inflammatory Microenvironment and Stemness of Ovarian Germline Stem Cells in Ovarian Aging via cGAS/STING Signaling Pathway
Yunling ZHENG ; Xinyi PAN ; Zuang LI ; Yixuan WANG ; Junyi AN ; Yuxin ZOU ; Mengting XIAO ; Zheng CHEN ; Ling ZHU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(7):1-10
ObjectiveTo investigate the mechanism of Zuogui Wan (ZGW) in improving ovarian inflammatory microenvironment and stemness of ovarian germline stem cells (OSCs) for treating ovarian aging via the cyclic guanosine monophosphate/adenosine monophosphate synthase (cGAS)/stimulator of interferon genes (STING) signaling pathway. MethodsForty C57BL/6 female mice were randomly divided into a blank group, a model group, a low-dose ZGW group (2.7 g·kg-1), a high-dose ZGW group (5.4 g·kg-1), and an estradiol valerate group (0.15 mg·kg-1), with 8 mice in each group. Except the blank group, all other groups received a single intraperitoneal injection of cyclophosphamide at 120 mg·kg-1 to establish an ovarian aging mouse model. After successful modeling, each group was continuously administered for 4 weeks, once daily. The physiological status of the mice was observed, and the ovarian index was calculated. The estrus cycle of the mice was monitored. Hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining was used to observe pathological changes in ovarian tissue. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was used to detect serum sex hormone levels. Serum inflammatory factors interleukin-1β (IL-1β), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), and mouse interleukin-6 (IL-6) levels were detected using kits. Western blot was used to detect the protein expression of ovarian cGAS, STING, p-STING, TANK-binding kinase 1 (TBK1), p-TBK1, interferon-induced transmembrane protein 3 (Fragilis), and Vasa homolog protein (MVH). Quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (Real-time PCR) was used to detect the mRNA expression of inflammatory factors in ovarian tissue. Immunofluorescence double labeling was performed to locate OSCs in ovarian tissues, and fluorescence intensities of OSCs markers MVH and octamer binding transcription factor 4 (Oct4) were calculated. ResultsCompared with the blank group, the model group showed reduced body weight, ovarian wet weight, and ovarian index (P<0.01) and a disordered estrus cycle (P<0.01). In addition, the levels of serum follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), TNF-α, IL-6, and IL-1β were increased (P<0.01), while anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) and estradiol (E2) levels were decreased (P<0.01). The protein expression of cGAS, p-STING/STING, and p-TBK1/TBK1 in ovarian tissue was increased (P<0.05, P<0.01), while that of OSCs stemness factors MVH and Fragilis was reduced (P<0.01). Immunofluorescence indicated a reduction in MVH and Oct4 expression in OSCs (P<0.01). The mRNA expression of inflammatory factors TNF-α, IL-6, and IL-1β in ovarian tissue was increased (P<0.05, P<0.01). Compared with the model group, the treatment groups exhibited improved body weight, ovarian wet weight, and ovarian index (P<0.05) and a reduced rate of estrus cycle disorder (P<0.05, P<0.01). The levels of serum FSH, TNF-α, IL-6, and IL-1β were decreased (P<0.05, P<0.01), while AMH and E2 levels were increased (P<0.01). The protein expression levels of cGAS, p-STING/STING, and p-TBK1/TBK1 in ovarian tissue were decreased (P<0.05), while the protein expression of MVH and Fragilis was increased (P<0.05), and the fluorescence intensities of MVH and Oct4 were increased (P<0.05, P<0.01). The mRNA expression of inflammatory factors in ovarian tissue was decreased (P<0.05). ConclusionZGW alleviate ovarian inflammatory response, regulate ovarian microenvironment homeostasis, and maintain stemness of OSCs in ovarian aging mice probably by modulating the cGAS-STING signaling pathway, thereby improving ovarian function and delaying ovarian aging.
3.Inverse Association Between Alcohol Consumption and Parkinson’s Disease Risk and Identification of RIT2 as a Linked Biomarker
Wei LU ; Xiu-Li CHENG ; Xiao-Yun PAN ; Dan-Dan YANG ; Hui-Ling ZOU ; Li-Guo DONG ; Yi-Liang WEI ; Gui-Yun CUI
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(6):1723-1733
ObjectiveAs a common lifestyle habit, alcohol consumption has a controversial association with the onset of Parkinson’s disease (PD). To demonstrate the correlation between alcohol consumption and PD and to identify associated genes, we integrated findings from clinical surveys, genomics, transcriptomics, and animal experiments. MethodsWe investigated the alcohol consumption rates (including both before and after disease onset) among 244 PD patients in China and 177 PD patients from the U.S. NHANES database. Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was performed using genome-wide association study (GWAS) data for three alcohol-related traits and seven PD-related datasets from the MRC IEU OpenGWAS database. Transcriptomic data from the substantia nigra of PD patients were obtained from three GEO datasets (GSE7621, GSE20141, and GSE49036) to analyze RIT2 gene transcription. Finally, three groups of animal experiments (water/20% ethanol/20% liquor, with 4 C57BL/6J mice per group) were conducted to examine changes in brain RIT2 gene expression and transcriptomic profiles following alcohol consumption. ResultsThe alcohol consumption rates among PD patients in China and the U.S. (9%-18.87%) were significantly lower than the general population rates of 15%-45% in their respective regions (P<0.001), suggesting a possible negative association between alcohol consumption and PD. Subsequently, in 21 bidirectional MR analyses using 3 alcohol-related GWAS datasets and 7 PD-related GWAS datasets, the forward MR analyses (alcohol intake as exposure, PD as outcome) yielded 12 negative associations (ORIVW<1) and 9 positive associations (ORIVW>1). Among these, only two negative associations reached statistical significance: alcohol intake frequency (ORIVW=0.75, 95% CI: 0.60-0.93, P=0.010) and alcohol consumption (ORIVW=0.20, 95% CI: 0.05-0.83, P=0.026). The forward MR analysis (alcohol intake→PD) identified 235 SNPs, annotated to 316 genes, while the reverse MR analyses (PD→alcohol intake) identified 37 SNPs, annotated to 53 genes. Notably, only the RIT2 gene appeared in both the forward and reverse MR analyses (alcohol intake→PD: rs28597806, rs8083110; PD→alcohol intake: rs4588066). RIT2 is selectively expressed in the human brain (FPKM: 5.259±2.103), with low or no expression in peripheral tissues (FPKM: <1). Analysis of three human substantia nigra transcriptomic datasets revealed a decreasing trend in RIT2 gene expression in PD patients (GSE20141 array signal: 3.49±1.23 vs. 2.33±0.87, P=0.044). Animal experiments demonstrated that administration of 20% ethanol or 20% liquor (approximately 8% ethanol) stimulated a >2-fold upregulation of RIT2 gene expression in the mouse brain. Furthermore, transcriptomic sequencing revealed that the two alcohol-treated groups exhibited 96 (20% ethanol vs. water control) and 4 (20% liquor vs. water control) differentially expressed genes, respectively, indicating that low-dose alcohol consumption can achieve RIT2 upregulation while minimizing impact on other brain genes. In addition to its anti-infective effects, low-dose alcohol consumption primarily influences signaling pathways related to neurodegenerative diseases such as PD and Prion diseases. ConclusionAlcohol consumption is generally considered as a harmful lifestyle habit. However, some studies have also shown a lower risk of mortality among individuals who consume low doses of alcohol (100 g/week of ethanol) or drink occasionally. Currently, one of the research focuses on alcohol consumption is whether the human body can benefit from low-dose alcohol intake. This study provides new evidence supporting a negative association between alcohol consumption and PD, and for the first time, through MR analysis, identifies the RIT2 gene as a potential mediator of the effect of alcohol consumption on PD. RIT2 is selectively expressed in the human brain. Building upon existing evidence indicating downregulated RIT2 gene expression in PD pathogenesis, our experiments confirm that low-dose alcohol consumption can upregulate RIT2 expression in the brain. In brief, alcohol consumption may suppress the pathogenesis of PD by upregulating RIT2 expression in the substantia nigra. China is facing a serious problem of population aging. This study offers important insights for long-term PD prevention and treatment strategies, with the aim of benefiting more potential PD patients through lifestyle modifications, thereby improving the quality of life of the aging population and reducing the economic burden on healthcare.
4.Predicting mortality risk in severe ards patients using indirect calorimetry-based oxygen consumption and carbon dioxide production rates
Ke GUAN ; Huihuang ZOU ; Yuna HU ; Ling YE ; Yanwei CHENG ; Jingjing NIU ; Cunzhen WANG ; Ke QIN ; Tingyuan ZHANG ; Bin YANG ; Yuhan SUN ; Wenliang ZHU ; Qingbo FAN ; Zhisong GUO ; Yongchun CHEN ; Wenjie WANG
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2025;34(3):396-403
Objective:To investigate the relationship between oxygen consumption (VO 2), carbon dioxide production (VCO 2), and Oxygen Consumption/lactate (VO 2/Lac) with risk of death in patients with severe ARDS. Methods:A retrospective cohort study method was used, and the study subjects were hospitalized for >5 days adult patients with severe ARDS in the central intensive care unit of Henan Provincial People's Hospital from 1 March 2020 to 30 June 2023. The following patients were excluded: IC test was not completed on the 4th day of ICU admission, IC test results were unreliable, mechanical ventilation duration had exceeded 48 h at the time of ICU transfer or admission, palliative care patients and pregnant and parturient women. Using indirect calorimetry to determine VO 2 and VCO 2 values on the 4th day of admission, reviewing medical records to obtain general condition, disease information, blood gas analysis (including lactate value), diagnostic and therapeutic measures, and following up deaths by telephone and time of death. The primary outcome measure was death at 90 days, and the secondary outcome measure was death at 28 days, length of stay in ICU, total length of stay, and total hospitalization cost. Cox regression analysis and linear regression analysis were used to investigate the relationship between VO 2, VCO 2, VO 2/Lac and primary and secondary outcome indexes. Results:A total of 216 patients were enrolled, 78 patients (36.1%) died and 138 patients (63.9%) survived at 90 days. After correction for confounders, the results of multifactorial Cox regression analysis suggested that compared with the Q4 group, HR (95% CI) for 90-day risk of death in the VO 2 Q1 and Q2 groups was 3.21 (1.38, 7.49) and 3.24 (1.42, 7.38), and HR (95% CI) for 90-day risk of death in the VCO 2 Q1, Q2 and Q3 groups was 5.88 (2.33, 14.84), 4.26 (1. 60, 11.34) and 3.54 (1.34, 9.35), respectively, and the HR (95% CI) for 90-day risk of death in the VO 2/Lac Q1, Q2 and Q3 groups were 8.72 (3.01, 25.25), 8.43 (2.91, 24.47) and 4.04 (1.34, 12.17) respectively. P-trends were all <0.05, indicating that VO 2, VCO 2 and VO 2/Lac were linearly and negatively associated with the risk of 90-day mortality. In addition, VO 2, VCO 2, and VO 2/Lac were negatively associated with 28-day risk of death and higher VO 2/Lac was negatively associated with length of ICU stay. Conclusions:VO 2, VCO 2 and VO 2/Lac were negatively associated with 90-day mortality risk and 28-day mortality risk in patients with severe ARDS and may be independent risk factors predicting mortality risk of such patients.
5.Prevalence of Schistosoma japonicum infections in wild rodents in key areas during the elimination phase
Chao LÜ ; Xiaojuan XU ; Jiajia LI ; Ting FENG ; Hai ZHU ; Yifeng LI ; Ling XU ; Zhihong FENG ; Huiwen JIANG ; Xiaoqing ZOU ; Wenjun WEI ; Zhiqiang QIN ; Yang HONG ; Shiqing ZHANG ; Jing XU
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2025;37(5):475-481
Objective To investigate the prevalence of Schistosoma japonicum infections in wild rodents in schistosomiasis-endemic areas of China, so as to provide insights into formulation of technical guidelines for monitoring of and the precise control strategy for S. japonicum infections in wild rodents during the elimination phase. Methods Two administrative villages where schistosomiasis was historically highly prevalent were selected each from Dongzhi County, Anhui Province, and Duchang County, Jiangxi Province as study villages. Wild rodents were captured from study villages with baited traps or cages at night in June and September, 2021. The number of rodents captured was recorded, and the rodent species was characterized based on morphologi-cal characteristics. Liver tissues were sampled from captured rodents for macroscopical observation of the presence of egg granu- lomas, and S. japonicum infection was detected simultaneously using liver tissue homogenate microscopy, examinations of mesenteric tissues for parasites, and modified Kato-Katz thick smear technique (Kato-Katz technique). A positive S. japonicum infection was defined as detection of S. japonicum eggs or adult worms by any of these methods. The rate of wild rodent capture and prevalence of S. japonicum infections in wild rodents were compared in different study villages and at different time periods, and the detection of S. japonicum infections in wild rodents was compared by different assays. Results The overall rate of wild ro- dent capture was 8.28% (237/2 861) in Dongzhi County, and the wild rodent capture rates were 9.24% (133/1 439) and 7.31% (104/1 422) in two study villages (χ2 = 3.503, P = 0.061), and were 8.59% (121/1 409) and 7.99% (116/1 452) in June and September, 2021, respectively (χ2 = 0.337, P = 0.561). The overall rate of wild rodent capture was 3.72% (77/2 072) in Duchang County, and the wild rodent capture rates were 6.91% (67/970) and 0.91% (10/1 102) in two study villages (χ2 = 51.901, P < 0.001), and were 4.13% (39/945) and 3.37% (38/1 127) in June and September, 2021, respectively (χ2 = 0.815, P = 0.365). Rattus norvegicus was the predominant rodent species captured in both counties, accounting for 70.04% (166/237) of all captured wild rodents in Dongzhi County and 88.31% (68/77) in Duchang County. No S. japonicum infection was detected in wild rodents captured in Duchang County. Nevertheless, the overall prevalence of S. japonicum infections was 51.05% (121/237) in wild rodents captured in Dongzhi County, with prevalence rates of 50.38% (67/133) and 51.92% (54/104) in two study villages (χ2 = 0.098, P = 0.755), and 54.31% (63/116) and 47.93% (58/121) in September and June, 2021, respectively (χ2 = 0.964, P = 0.326). Of 237 wild rodents captured in Dongzhi County, there were 140 (59.07%) rodents with visible hepatic egg granulomas, 117 (49.47%) tested positive for S. japonicum eggs by liver tissue homogenate microscopy, 34 (14.35%) tested positive for S. japonicum eggs with Kato-Katz technique; however, no adult S. japonicum worms were detected in mesenteric tissues. In addition, hepatic egg granulomas were found in all wild rodents tested positive for S. japonicum eggs with liver tissue homogenate microscopy. Conclusions The rate of wild rodent capture and prevalence of S. japonicum infection in wild rodents vary greatly in schistosomiasis-endemic areas of China, and the prevalence of S. japonicum infection is slightly higher in wild rodents captured in autumn than in summer. Liver tissue is recommended as the preferred sample for surveillance of S. japonicum infection in wild rodents, and a combination of macroscopical observation of hepatic egg granulomas and liver tissue homogenate microscopy may be a standard method for surveillance of S. japonicum infection in wild rodents.
6.Biomechanical Analysis and Structural Optimization of 3D-Printed Polyether Ether Ketone(PEEK)Static Wrist Orthosis
Ziyan QIU ; Lingfeng ZHU ; Heran ZHANG ; Wencheng YIN ; Lei TANG ; Dongming ZOU ; Binling CHEN ; Ling WANG
Journal of Medical Biomechanics 2025;40(2):378-386
Objective In response to the clinical needs for personalized wrist orthoses,a topological optimization design method was proposed to achieve an integrated macro-and micro-structural optimization of a personalized,lightweight,and comfortable wrist orthosis.Methods A composite biomechanical finite element model of the wrist orthosis and upper limb was established to quantify the effects of the orthosis geometry on its fixation performance and comfort.A multi-condition topological optimization and microstructure design approach was employed to optimize the non-load-bearing areas of the orthosis.The orthosis was manufactured using three-dimensional(3D)-printed polyether ether ketone(PEEK),and the feasibility of the design was validated.Results While maintaining mechanical strength,the weight of the 3D-printed PEEK orthosis was reduced by 28%compared to the traditional orthoses.Both the pressure at the skin contact interface and the results of a subjective questionnaire indicated that test subjects experienced a high level of comfort wearing the orthosis.Conclusions The orthosis design achieved personalization,lightweight structure,and high comfort while ensuring mechanical strength and fixation performance.
7.Shexiang Tongxin Dropping Pill Improves Stable Angina Patients with Phlegm-Heat and Blood-Stasis Syndrome: A Multicenter, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial.
Ying-Qiang ZHAO ; Yong-Fa XING ; Ke-Yong ZOU ; Wei-Dong JIANG ; Ting-Hai DU ; Bo CHEN ; Bao-Ping YANG ; Bai-Ming QU ; Li-Yue WANG ; Gui-Hong GONG ; Yan-Ling SUN ; Li-Qi WANG ; Gao-Feng ZHOU ; Yu-Gang DONG ; Min CHEN ; Xue-Juan ZHANG ; Tian-Lun YANG ; Min-Zhou ZHANG ; Ming-Jun ZHAO ; Yue DENG ; Chang-Jiang XIAO ; Lin WANG ; Bao-He WANG
Chinese journal of integrative medicine 2025;31(8):685-693
OBJECTIVE:
To evaluate the efficacy and safety of Shexiang Tongxin Dropping Pill (STDP) in treating stable angina patients with phlegm-heat and blood-stasis syndrome by exercise duration and metabolic equivalents.
METHODS:
This multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial enrolled stable angina patients with phlegm-heat and blood-stasis syndrome from 22 hospitals. They were randomized 1:1 to STDP (35 mg/pill, 6 pills per day) or placebo for 56 days. The primary outcome was the exercise duration and metabolic equivalents (METs) assessed by the standard Bruce exercise treadmill test after 56 days of treatment. The secondary outcomes included the total angina symptom score, Chinese medicine (CM) symptom scores, Seattle Angina Questionnaire (SAQ) scores, changes in ST-T on electrocardiogram and adverse events (AEs).
RESULTS:
This trial enrolled 309 patients, including 155 and 154 in the STDP and placebo groups, respectively. STDP significantly prolonged exercise duration with an increase of 51.0 s, compared to a decrease of 12.0 s with placebo (change rate: -11.1% vs. 3.2%, P<0.01). The increase in METs was significantly greater in the STDP group than in the placebo group (change: -0.4 vs. 0.0, change rate: -5.0% vs. 0.0%, P<0.01). The improvement of total angina symptom scores (25.0% vs. 0.0%), CM symptom scores (38.7% vs. 11.8%), reduction of nitroglycerin consumption (100.0% vs. 11.3%), and all domains of SAQ, were significantly greater with STDP than placebo (all P<0.01). The changes in Q-T intervals at 28 and 56 days from baseline were similar between the two groups (both P>0.05). Twenty-five participants (16.3%) with STDP and 16 (10.5%) with placebo experienced AEs (P=0.131), with no serious AEs observed.
CONCLUSION
STDP could improve exercise tolerance in patients with stable angina and phlegm-heat and blood stasis syndrome, with a favorable safety profile. (Registration No. ChiCTR-IPR-15006020).
Humans
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Double-Blind Method
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/adverse effects*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Angina, Stable/physiopathology*
;
Aged
;
Syndrome
;
Treatment Outcome
;
Placebos
;
Tablets
8.Clinical applications and research progress of muscle ultrasound in critically ill patients.
Ling LEI ; Jun QIU ; Tongjuan ZOU ; Yi LI ; Ran ZHOU ; Yao QIN ; Wanhong YIN
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2025;37(8):785-793
Critically ill patients often experience significant skeletal muscle wasting due to prolonged bed rest, metabolic disorders, inflammatory responses and malnutrition, which affects the patient's mobility and may also lead to increased mortality. Timely and accurate assessment of muscle status is important for optimizing treatment strategies and improving patient prognosis. There are various limitations in the current methods of assessing muscle mass, and muscle ultrasound, as a noninvasive, convenient, low-cost and suitable technique for bedside monitoring, has received increasing attention for its application in muscle assessment of critically ill patients. However, there are still a number of challenges in its practical application, such as the lack of uniform standards for the measurement method, the high dependence on the operation, and the reproducibility of the data that needs to be optimized, and so on. The aim of this article is to systematize the research progress of muscle ultrasound in muscle assessment of critically ill patients, and to discuss the advantages and limitations of its clinical application, in order to provide a scientific basis for future research and clinical practice.
Humans
;
Critical Illness
;
Ultrasonography
;
Muscle, Skeletal/diagnostic imaging*
9.Digital aesthetic-driven flowable resin injection restoration.
Yiling LI ; Li ZOU ; Hongmei CHEN ; Jie LIU ; Lin ZHANG ; Ling ZHANG ; Jing XUE
West China Journal of Stomatology 2025;43(2):289-298
Achieving precise restoration of tooth function and personalized restoration of natural tooth esthetics has always been a significant challenge in direct restorative dentistry. The traditional direct restorative techniques are limited by the subjective operations of dentists, resulting in high technical sensitivity, long operation time, and unpredictable restoration results, making it difficult to meet patients' personalized demands for restoration outcomes. An innovative flowable resin injection technique was introduced in this study. By combining digital design with personalized restoration guides, this technique achieves precise and personalized tooth restoration, thus revolutionizing the traditio-nal paradigm of direct tooth restoration. Specifically, this technique is guided by the patient's subjective aesthetic needs. It utilizes digital technology to pre-design the restoration result and creates a personalized restoration guide. During clinical operation, the dentist needs to only precisely inject the flowable resin into the guide, allowing for rapid completion of the restoration, thereby significantly reducing the operation time and improving the precision and predictability of the restoration. The perfect combination of digital design and flowable resin injection not only significantly improves the precision and predictability of direct tooth restoration but also remarkably shortens the clinical operation time and reduces the requirements for the dentist's technical level, making it widely applicable to the restoration of various tooth defects. Thus, it improves patient satisfaction and reduces the workload of dentists. This innovative restoration technique is expected to become a new productive force in future clinical direct adhesive restorations.
Humans
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Dental Restoration, Permanent/methods*
;
Esthetics, Dental
;
Composite Resins
;
Computer-Aided Design
;
Injections
10.Study of school influenza epidemic prediction based on Bayesian Structural Time Series model and multi-source data integration
Huiyang SUN ; Qiuying LYU ; Fengjuan CHEN ; Honglin WANG ; Yanpeng CHENG ; Zhigao CHEN ; Zhen ZHANG ; Ling YIN ; Xuan ZOU
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(7):1188-1195
Objective:To analyze the spatiotemporal correlation between the surveillance data of influenza in students reported by medical institutions and school absenteeism due to illness, and evaluate the application of Bayesian Structural Time Series model (BSTS) in the prediction of school influenza epidemic.Methods:A total of 13 schools in Dapeng new district of Shenzhen were selected. The incidence data of influenza in schools in Shenzhen from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2019 were collected from China Disease Control and Prevention Information System and the illness related school absentence data during this period were collected from Shenzhen Student Health Surveillance System, and the spatiotemporal correlation between the data from two systems was analyzed and compared. BSTS was used to make long-term predictions of the monthly incidence of influenza in students in 2019 and short-term predictions of the weekly incidence of influenza in week 1-8 and week 45-52 of 2019 by using the data from two systems.Results:There was a temporal correlation between the data from China Disease Control and Prevention Information System and the data from Shenzhen Student Health Surveillance System ( r=0.93, P<0.001), and the lag of the former one was 1 day ( r=0.73, P<0.001). Influenza outbreaks were randomly distributed in different schools in Shenzhen, and there was no spatial correlation. The root mean square error ( RMSE) and mean absolute error ( MAE) were 0.35 and 0.28, respectively, in the long-term prediction, and the RMSE was 0.33 and 0.34, and the MAE was 0.26 and 0.28, respectively, in the short-term predictions of week 1-8 and week 45-52 of 2019, respectively, showing good prediction accuracy and fitting effect. Conclusion:By analyzing the data from China Disease Control and Prevention Information System and Shenzhen Student Health Surveillance System with BSTS, the dynamics of the school influenza epidemic can be accurately predicted, and effective technical support can be provided for the early warning and prevention and control of influenza epidemic.

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