1.Explainable Machine Learning Model for Predicting Prognosis in Patients with Malignant Tumors Complicated by Acute Respiratory Failure: Based on the eICU Collaborative Research Database in the United States
Zihan NAN ; Linan HAN ; Suwei LI ; Ziyi ZHU ; Qinqin ZHU ; Yan DUAN ; Xiaoting WANG ; Lixia LIU
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2026;17(1):98-108
To develop and validate a model for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality risk in patients with malignant tumors complicated by acute respiratory failure (ARF) based on an explainable machine learning framework. Clinical data of patients with malignant tumors and ARF were extracted from the eICU Collaborative Research Database in the United States, including demographic characteristics, comorbidities, vital signs, laboratory test indicators, and major interventions within the first 24 hours after ICU admission.The study outcome was ICU death.Enrolled patients were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7:3.Predictor variables were selected using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression.Five machine learning algorithms-extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), Logistic regression, multilayer perceptron (MLP), and C5.0 Decision Tree-were employed to construct predictive models.Model performance was evaluated based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and other metrics.The optimal model was further interpreted using the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) algorithm. A total of 3196 patients with malignant tumors complicated by ARF were included.The training set comprised 2, 261 patients and the validation set 935 patients; 683 patients died during ICU stay, while 2513 survived.LASSO regression ultimately selected 12 variables closely associated with patient ICU outcomes, including sepsis comorbidity, use of vasoactive drugs, and within the first 24 hours after ICU admission: minimum mean arterial pressure, maximum heart rate, maximum respiratory rate, minimum oxygen saturation, minimum serum bicarbonate, minimum blood urea nitrogen, maximum white blood cell count, maximum mean corpuscular volume, maximum serum potassium, and maximum blood glucose.After model evaluation, the XGBoost model demonstrated the best performance.The AUCs for predicting ICU mortality risk in the training and validation sets were 0.940 and 0.763, respectively; accuracy was 88.3% and 81.2%;sensitivity was 98.5% and 95.9%.Its predictive performance also remained optimal in sensitivity analyses.SHAP analysis indicated that the top five variables contributing to the model's predictions were minimum oxygen saturation, minimum serum bicarbonate, minimum mean arterial pressure, use of vasoactive drugs, and maximum white blood cell count. This study successfully developed a mortality risk prediction model for ICU patients with malignant tumors complicated by ARF based on a large-scale dataset and performed explainability analysis.The model aids clinicians in early identification of high-risk patients and implementing individualized interventions.
2.Distribution and exposure assessment of enrofloxacin residues in freshwater fish
Chenyue FAN ; Hongxin NIU ; Ying PAN ; Yan CHEN ; Jing CHEN ; Shenliang LYU ; Ying MEI ; Linan HOU ; Renping TONG
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(9):765-767
ObjectiveTo understand the distribution of enrofloxacin (ENR) residues in freshwater fish, to evaluate the dietary exposure risk to ENR for consumers through the consumption of different freshwater fish in Shanghai, and to provide a reference for controlling antibiotic residues in freshwater fish. MethodsGrass carp, Wuchang bream, pond loach, and Asian swamp eels were purchased from the markets in Shanghai. After being fed with ENR, the fish were divided into 42 batches according to their species and weight, and thereafter ENR residues in the muscles and skin of the fish were measured. In addition, a total of 44 batches of Wuchang bream, pond loach, Asian swamp eels were purchased from the markets, and the ENR residues in the muscles with or without the fish skin were measured, and the exposure risk was evaluated. ResultsThe average residues of ENR in skin of the freshwater fish after being fed with drugs in the 42 groups were higher than those in muscles (M=659.38 μg·kg-1, M=460.83 μg·kg-1; z=-2.212, P=0.027). The over-standard rates of ENR residues in the muscles with or without skin 44 batches of freshwater fish of sold in Shanghai were 36.36% and 29.55%, respectively. The median exposure, P95 exposure, and maximum exposure to ENR through the consumption of the muscles with the skin for adults and children in Shanghai were higher than those through the consumption of muscles without the skin. For children, the margin of safety (MOS) for the max exposure to ENR by consuming the muscles with the skin was more than 1, while the MOS was less than 1 in all other cases for both children and adults. ConclusionThe ENR residues in the skin of freshwater fish are generally higher than those in the muscles. The risk of ENR residues in freshwater fish sold in Shanghai is within a controllable range. However, there might be a certain risk of acute exposure to ENR for children by consuming muscles with the skin of freshwater fish.
3.Sinicization and reliability and validity the European organization for research and treatment of cancer quality of life questionnaire-head and neck 43
Qing LYU ; Junqiu LI ; Fa ZHANG ; Cuimin KOU ; Yan LI ; Shuxiang ZHANG ; Yanxin ZHANG ; Lixia NIU ; Yiming ZHU ; Xin YUAN ; Linan QIN ; Shaoyan LIU
Chinese Journal of Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery 2025;60(6):617-623
Objective:To translate the European organization for research and treatment of cancer quality of life questionnaire-head and neck 43(EORTC QLQ-H&N43) and to conduct cultural debugging and reliability and validity testing for the Chinese version of the scale.Methods:The Chinese version of EORTC QLQ-H&N43 was formed through literal translation, integration, back translation, group discussion, cultural adjustment, and pre-investigation of the English version of the scale. From March 2023 to December 2023, convenience sampling was used to investigate 254 patients with head and neck tumors at the Cancer Hospital of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, including 197 males and 57 females, aged (55.6±13.6) years. SPSS 25.0 statistical software was used to analyze the performance of the scale.Results:The Chinese version of EORTC QLQ-H&N43 retained all 43 items. After evaluation by 5 experts, the content validity index (I-CVI) at the item level of the scale ranged from 0.80 to 1.00, and the average content validity index (S-CVI/Ave) at the scale level was 0.991. Through exploratory factor analysis, a total of 9 common factors were extracted, with a cumulative variance contribution rate of 68.158%; Cronbach′s α coefficient of the total scale was 0.943, and the half reliability was 0.896.Conclusion:The Chinese version of EORTC QLQ-H&N43 has good reliability and validity, which can be used as an effective tool to evaluate the quality of life of head and neck cancer patients in China.
4.Sinicization and reliability and validity the European organization for research and treatment of cancer quality of life questionnaire-head and neck 43
Qing LYU ; Junqiu LI ; Fa ZHANG ; Cuimin KOU ; Yan LI ; Shuxiang ZHANG ; Yanxin ZHANG ; Lixia NIU ; Yiming ZHU ; Xin YUAN ; Linan QIN ; Shaoyan LIU
Chinese Journal of Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery 2025;60(6):617-623
Objective:To translate the European organization for research and treatment of cancer quality of life questionnaire-head and neck 43(EORTC QLQ-H&N43) and to conduct cultural debugging and reliability and validity testing for the Chinese version of the scale.Methods:The Chinese version of EORTC QLQ-H&N43 was formed through literal translation, integration, back translation, group discussion, cultural adjustment, and pre-investigation of the English version of the scale. From March 2023 to December 2023, convenience sampling was used to investigate 254 patients with head and neck tumors at the Cancer Hospital of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, including 197 males and 57 females, aged (55.6±13.6) years. SPSS 25.0 statistical software was used to analyze the performance of the scale.Results:The Chinese version of EORTC QLQ-H&N43 retained all 43 items. After evaluation by 5 experts, the content validity index (I-CVI) at the item level of the scale ranged from 0.80 to 1.00, and the average content validity index (S-CVI/Ave) at the scale level was 0.991. Through exploratory factor analysis, a total of 9 common factors were extracted, with a cumulative variance contribution rate of 68.158%; Cronbach′s α coefficient of the total scale was 0.943, and the half reliability was 0.896.Conclusion:The Chinese version of EORTC QLQ-H&N43 has good reliability and validity, which can be used as an effective tool to evaluate the quality of life of head and neck cancer patients in China.
5.Expulsion rate and influencing factors of GyneFix postpartum intrauterine device placed immediately after cesarean section: a prospective cohort study
Xing CHEN ; Guifang HOU ; Hongping ZHANG ; Heng YANG ; Shujuan LIN ; Tao GAN ; Weihua YANG ; Chunhui SHI ; Weijuan REN ; Yingqin XU ; Baomin YIN ; Tingting CHEN ; Yujie GAN ; Yuan ZHANG ; Yan ZHANG ; Linan CHENG ; Yan CHE
Chinese Journal of Reproduction and Contraception 2024;44(1):37-43
Objective:To investigate the expulsion rate of GyneFix postpartum intrauterine device (PPIUD) placed immediately after cesarean section within one year and its influencing factors.Methods:A prospective cohort study was conducted. Women who volunteered to use a GyneFix PPIUD placed immediately after cesarean section (within 10 min after placenta delivery) for postpartum contraception were recruited from September 2017 to November 2020. The relevant information was collected through questionnaires before, during and 24 h after cesarean section. Outpatient follow-up was conducted at 42 d, 3 months, 6 months and 12 months after delivery to obtain information on expulsion of GyneFix PPIUD and unwanted pregnancy. Life table and Cox regression model were used to analyze the cumulative expulsion rate and related influencing factors.Results:A total of 470 subjects were recruited and 461 (98%) subjects were eligible for this study. The cumulative expulsion rate of GyneFix PPIUD within one year after cesarean section was 8.4% (95% CI: 7.0%-9.8%). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that women aged >35 years had significantly lower risk of PPIUD expulsion than those aged <25 years ( HR=0.16, 95% CI: 0.04-0.64). The risk of GyneFix PPIUD was not statistically significantly associated with cesarean section history and breastfeeding mode (all P>0.05). Nevertheless, this risk was statistically significant between hospitals. The Pearl index of contraceptive failure of the device was 2.37 (95% CI: 1.09-4.50) per 100 person-years. The rate of contraceptive failure was not associated with maternal age, breastfeeding mode, and history of cesarean delivery (all P>0.05). Conclusion:The one-year cumulative expulsion rate of GyneFix PPIUD placed immediately after cesarean section is 8.4%. Young mothers were at a higher risk of expulsion than their older counterparts. The device users should be counseled regarding the signs of expulsion. In case of expulsion, women should be offered reinsertion or other contraceptive methods. The training of service skills of GyneFix PPIUD should be strengthened in order to mitigate the risk of the device expulsion.
6.Risk factors for lung cancer with coronary artery diseases and the advances of treatment
Linan YAN ; Lin DU ; Xun ZHANG ; Dong WEI ; Dongyan YANG ; Junshan LI ; Lianqun WANG
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2024;31(08):1229-1234
The coronary artery disease is a frequent severe disease of cardiovascular system in recent years. Meanwhile, lung cancer, with its high morbidity and mortality, is the most frequent malignant tumor of respiratory system in the world. Clinical studies have shown that the incidence of coronary artery disease and lung cancer is high throughout the year, and comorbidities are becoming more common, especially in elderly patients. The incidence of lung cancer and coronary heart disease may be related. This article summarizes the common risk factors (smoking and environmental pollution, fibrinogen, estrogen, and age), and treatment (surgical treatment, neoadjuvant therapy, and targeted therapy) progress of the two diseases, providing a theoretical basis for clinical prevention and treatment.
7.Expulsion rate and influencing factors of GyneFix postpartum intrauterine device placed immediately after cesarean section: a prospective cohort study
Xing CHEN ; Guifang HOU ; Hongping ZHANG ; Heng YANG ; Shujuan LIN ; Tao GAN ; Weihua YANG ; Chunhui SHI ; Weijuan REN ; Yingqin XU ; Baomin YIN ; Tingting CHEN ; Yujie GAN ; Yuan ZHANG ; Yan ZHANG ; Linan CHENG ; Yan CHE
Chinese Journal of Reproduction and Contraception 2024;44(1):37-43
Objective:To investigate the expulsion rate of GyneFix postpartum intrauterine device (PPIUD) placed immediately after cesarean section within one year and its influencing factors.Methods:A prospective cohort study was conducted. Women who volunteered to use a GyneFix PPIUD placed immediately after cesarean section (within 10 min after placenta delivery) for postpartum contraception were recruited from September 2017 to November 2020. The relevant information was collected through questionnaires before, during and 24 h after cesarean section. Outpatient follow-up was conducted at 42 d, 3 months, 6 months and 12 months after delivery to obtain information on expulsion of GyneFix PPIUD and unwanted pregnancy. Life table and Cox regression model were used to analyze the cumulative expulsion rate and related influencing factors.Results:A total of 470 subjects were recruited and 461 (98%) subjects were eligible for this study. The cumulative expulsion rate of GyneFix PPIUD within one year after cesarean section was 8.4% (95% CI: 7.0%-9.8%). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that women aged >35 years had significantly lower risk of PPIUD expulsion than those aged <25 years ( HR=0.16, 95% CI: 0.04-0.64). The risk of GyneFix PPIUD was not statistically significantly associated with cesarean section history and breastfeeding mode (all P>0.05). Nevertheless, this risk was statistically significant between hospitals. The Pearl index of contraceptive failure of the device was 2.37 (95% CI: 1.09-4.50) per 100 person-years. The rate of contraceptive failure was not associated with maternal age, breastfeeding mode, and history of cesarean delivery (all P>0.05). Conclusion:The one-year cumulative expulsion rate of GyneFix PPIUD placed immediately after cesarean section is 8.4%. Young mothers were at a higher risk of expulsion than their older counterparts. The device users should be counseled regarding the signs of expulsion. In case of expulsion, women should be offered reinsertion or other contraceptive methods. The training of service skills of GyneFix PPIUD should be strengthened in order to mitigate the risk of the device expulsion.
8.Death and life loss of malignant tumors in Xicheng District from 2014 to 2021
CHU Linan ; DONG Yi ; LI Zhu ; ZHANG Yan ; ZHU Danhong
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2023;35(5):410-414
Objective:
To investigate the mortality and life loss of malignant tumors among residents in Xicheng District, Beijing from 2014 to 2021, so as to provide the evidence for formulating the control strategy for malignant tumors.
Methods:
Data pertaining to dead cases of malignant tumors in Xicheng District from 2014 to 2021 were collected from Beijing Integrated and Analysis Platform for Health and Disease Prevention Monitoring Information Resources. The crude mortality, standardized mortality, years of potential life lost (YPLL), years of potential life lost rate (YPLLR), rate of standardized years of potential life lost (SYPLLR), average years of life lost (AYLL) and annual percent change (APC) of malignant tumors were measured to analyze the trends in mortality of malignant tumors and life loss.
Results:
A total of 23 202 residents died from malignant tumors in Xicheng District from 2014 to 2021, and the crude and standardized mortality rates of malignant tumors were 198.09/105 and 101.46/105, respectively. The standardized mortality of malignant tumors was 117.36/105 among men and 85.97/105 among women. The standard mortality of malignant tumors appeared a tendency towards a decline among all cases (APC=-1.515%, t=-4.289, P=0.005) and women (APC=-1.629%, t=-3.046, P=0.023), and the crude mortality of malignant tumors appeared a tendency towards a rise with age (χ2trend=49.324, P<0.001). The five most deadly malignant tumors included lung cancer, colorectal cancer, liver cancer, stomach cancer and pancreatic cancer, and lung cancer, liver cancer and colorectal cancer were the three malignant tumors with the three highest life loss, with YPLL of 18 054 person-years, 9 446 person-years and 8 179 person-years, respectively. Leukemia had the highest AYLL (15.95 years per person).
Conclusions
The standardized mortality of malignant tumors appeared a tendency towards a decline among residents in Xicheng District from 2014 to 2021, and men and the elderly people were at high risk of malignant tumors. Lung cancer, colorectal cancer and liver cancer were leading causes of death, leukemia was the major cause of life loss.
9.Sixty-six Biallelic Genetic Markers on Y chromosome by MALDI-TOF-MS
Yutong SONG ; Li LI ; Linan ZHANG ; Ruxin ZHU ; Yan LIU ; Yuan LIN
Journal of Forensic Medicine 2017;33(3):239-243
Objective T o analyse the genetic polym orphism s of 66 biallelic genetic m arkers on Y chro-m osom e in E astern C hinese H an population, and evaluate their values in forensic application. Methods G enotyping of 66 biallelic genetic m arkers on Y chrom osom e w as studied in 205 unrelated m ales of E astern C hinese H an population by m ultiplex PC R com bined m atrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization tim e-of-flight m ass spectrom etry (M A L D I-T O F-M S ). T he allele frequencies on the loci to be tested w ere calculated by direct counting m ethod, and the gene diversity (G D ) and haplotype diversity (H D ) w ere calculated by corresponding form ulas. T he haplotypes of this system w ere tested by softw are A rlequin v3.5.2.2 and the com parison of population genetics w ere analyzed. Results A total of 60 biallelic genetic m arkers on Y chrom osom e w ere polym orphic in m ales of E astern C hinese H an population, and the ranges of G D w ere from 0.0385 to 0.5019. E ighty-five different haplotypes w ere observed and the H D w as 0.9703. T he differences of partial SN P loci betw een the H an population of E astern C hina and that of X injiang and G uangdong w ere statistically significance. Conclusion Sixty biallelic genetic m arkers and the detection system can com plem entally provide genetic inform ation in kinship testing and individual identification. T he M A L D I-T O F-M S technology is able to type biallelic genetic m arkers.
10.Study on improving the basic health insurance system in Shanghai:Based on the perspective of commercial health insurance
Minxing CHEN ; Linan WANG ; Yan YANG ; Xianji WANG ; Chunlin JIN
Chinese Journal of Health Policy 2015;8(11):52-56
Although the Shanghai's basic health insurance always takes the leading position nationwide in the aspects of coverage, funding level, security level, etc, it still cannot avoid the contradictory problems brought by the rapidly rising demand for health care, poor results of funds management, etc. Commercial health insurance has its u-nique advantages in terms of funds and personnel management. Therefore, they can play their complementary role to the basic medical insurance in order to improve the basic health insurance system. Based on the perspective of com-mercial health insurances, this paper explores the basic health insurance system in Shanghai from the aspects of man-agement patterns, governing body, insurance objects, funding modalities and insurance programs.


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