1.Effects and mechanisms of pesticide carbendazim on osteogenic differentiation
Liming XUE ; Jiale XU ; Jingxian ZHOU ; Yu’e JIN ; Dasheng LU
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2026;43(2):222-229
Background Carbendazim (CBZ), a widely used benzimidazole fungicide, has raised increasing concerns regarding the health risks associated with its residues. However, the toxic effects and associated mechanisms of CBZ on the skeletal system have not been reported. Objective To elucidate the effects of carbendazim on osteogenic differentiation and its underlying mechanisms. Methods MC3T3-E1 mouse pre-osteoblastic cells were treated with 1, 10, and 100 μmol·L−1 CBZ for 24 h to examine cell viability, alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity, bone nodule formation, reactive oxygen species (ROS) level, malondialdehyde (MDA) content, and nitric oxide synthase (NOS) activity. Transcriptomics was used to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in osteoblasts exposed to CBZ. Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) and gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) were employed to analyze the potential biological pathways of DEGs. Real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and Western blot were used to validate changes in gene and protein expression. Results Exposure to 10 and 100 μmol·L−1 CBZ significantly reduced osteoblast viability, ALP activity, bone nodule formation, and NOS activity, while increasing intracellular ROS levels. CBZ at 100 μmol·L−1 concentration significantly elevated MDA level (P < 0.05). The transcriptomic analysis revealed that 1 μmol·L−1 CBZ treatment resulted in 385 significantly DEGs. The KEGG enrichment analysis revealed that CBZ significantly affects hormone regulation pathways (including parathyroid hormone, growth hormone, dopamine, and oxytocin), mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) and cyclic GMP-dependent protein kinase G (cGMP-PKG) signaling pathways, focal adhesion and adherens junction, as well as the NOD-like receptor signaling pathway and the mRNA surveillance (NMD) pathway. The results of GSEA showed that CBZ significantly inhibited the bile acid metabolism and the Wnt/β-catenin pathway in osteoblasts. The validation results demonstrated that CBZ significantly suppressed the mRNA expression of Wnt3a and β-catenin, as well as the protein expression of Runx2 and Osterix in the Wnt/β-catenin pathway. Conclusion CBZ exposure exhibits potential skeletal toxicity, and its mechanism is through promoting oxidative stress, interfering with the Wnt/β-catenin pathway in osteogenic differentiation, thereby inhibiting the bone formation function of osteoblasts.
2.Effectes of perfluorooctanoic acid exposure on mouse embryonic osteoblast precursor cells and its molecular mechanisms
Liming XUE ; Jiale XU ; Yuanjie LIN ; Yu'e JIN ; Dasheng LU ; Guoquan WANG
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(7):629-635
ObjectiveTo explore the biological mechanism of bone loss caused by perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) through transcriptomic analysis, and to provide new insights into regulating perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) applications and the prevention of hazards affecting bone health. MethodsMouse embryonic osteoblast precursor cells (MC3T3-E1) were exposed to 0.1, 1, 10, and 100 μmol·L-¹ PFOA for 24 hours to assess the effects on cell viability and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity, and to determine the critical concentration of PFOA toxicity. The transcriptome sequencing (RNA-seq) was performed to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs) induced by PFOA. Gene ontology (GO) analysis and gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) were conducted to identify significantly affected gene pathways. Additionally, Seahorse XF metabolic phenotyping and reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) were used to validate the key pathways. ResultsExposure to 10 and 100 μmol·L-¹ PFOA significantly reduced the cell viability and ALP activity of MC3T3-E1 cells. Therefore, the results of transcriptomic analysis for 10 μmol‧L-1 PFOA exposure found that a total of 80 DEGs were identified, including 32 upregulated genes and 48 downregulated genes. According to GO analysis, PFOA mainly affected cellular components such as mitochondrion and nucleus, molecular functions involving GTPase activity and GTP binding, as well as biological process related to mRNA processing. GSEA identified the downregulation of the β-oxidation of fatty acid pathway in mitochondria. Metabolic phenotyping reserches showed that PFOA indeed reduced mitochondrial aerobic respiration capacity and adenosine triphosphate (ATP) production, and the ratio of ATP production from cellular aerobic respiration to glycolysis was significantly decreased as well. The mRNA expression of glucose metabolism-related genes (GK, G6PD, and CS), as well as fatty acid metabolism-related genes (CPT1A and CPT2), were significantly downregulated. ConclusionPFOA reduces bone formation by inhibiting energy metabolism and β-oxidation of fatty acid pathways in osteoblasts, whihc lays the foundation for revealing the mechanism of PFOA exposure induced bone loss.
3.Association of dietary behaviors, physical activity and altitude with nutritional status among children and adolescents
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(10):1411-1415
Objective:
To analyze the association between altitudes and nutritional status of children and adolescents, and to explore the moderating effects of dietary behaviors and physical activity, so as to provide a scientific basis for developing lifestyle interventions tailored to local conditions.
Methods:
From September to November 2023, physical examinations and questionnaire surveys were conducted among children and adolescents aged 7-17 in two autonomous regions, Inner Mongolia and Xizang, with a final sample of 156 511 participants by the stratified cluster random sampling method. Height and weight were measured to calculate body mass index (BMI). Sociodemographic characteristics, dietary behaviors, and physical activity were collected via questionnaires, while the altitude of each participant s school was obtained using Amap. Logistic regression was performed to examine the relationship between altitudes and nutritional status. Interaction terms and stratified analyses were applied to assess the moderating effects of dietary behaviors and physical activity. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) were used for visualization.
Results:
In 2023, the prevalence of wasting and overweight/obesity among children and adolescents in Xizang were 9.7% and 9.0%, respectively, compared to 2.9% and 22.0% in Inner Mongolia. Logistic regression analysis results showed that for every 1 km increase in altitude, the risk of wasting increased, while the risk of overweight/obesity decreased ( OR =1.43, 0.19, both P <0.05). The results of the stratified analysis showed that compared to those living at altitudes <1 km, children and adolescents with healthy diets showed no significant association between altitudes (1-<2 and 2-<3 km) and wasting ( OR =1.22, 0.75, both P >0.05), whereas significant associations were observed at 3-<4 and ≥4 km altitudes ( OR =2.25, 2.89, both P <0.05). In contrast, unhealthy dietary groups showed statistically significant associations across altitudes ( OR =1.18-4.04, all P <0.05), consistent with RCS results. No moderating effects were observed for physical activity on the altitude wasting association or for dietary behaviors and physical activity combined on the altitude overweight/obesity association ( P interaction =0.63, 0.10, 0.53).
Conclusion
Healthy dietary behaviors play a critical role in improving the nutritional status of children and adolescents and reducing regional disparities, providing a scientific foundation for public health policy formulation and implementation.
4.Construction of interpretable predictive model of acupuncture for methadone reduction in patients undergoing methadone maintenance treatment based on machine learning and SHAP.
Baochao FAN ; Qiao ZHANG ; Chen CHEN ; Yiming CHEN ; Peiming ZHANG ; Liming LU
Chinese Acupuncture & Moxibustion 2025;45(10):1363-1370
OBJECTIVE:
To construct a predictive model for the reduction in methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) and evaluate the effects of different interventions and other clinical factors on methadone reduction using Shapley additive explanations (SHAP).
METHODS:
Two clinical trials of acupuncture for methadone reduction in MMT patients were analyzed, and the baseline data, MMT related information, intervention measures, the data related to dose-reduction outcomes were collected. The predictive model was constructed by means of 6 machine learning algorithms including support vector machine (SVM), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), logistic regression (LR), Naive Bayes (NB), random forest (RF) and categorical-boosting (CatBoost), and 2 integration methods, blending-ensemble method (Blending) and Stacking-ensemble method (Stacking). SHAP was employed for the interpretability analysis of the optimal model.
RESULTS:
A total of 251 MMT patients were included, 128 cases in the acupuncture group and 123 cases in the non-acupuncture group. CatBoost and Stacking performed optimally in the test set. CatBoost obtained an accuracy of 0.780 0±0.060 8, a precision of 0.500 0±0.120 0, a recall of 0.818 2±0.140 2, F1 score of 0.620 7±0.114 0, and receiver operating characteristic-area under curve (ROC-AUC) of 0.857 8±0.140 2 for the subjects. In MMT patients with acupuncture as an adjunctive therapy, the top 5 important features for methadone reduction, included intervention measures, body mass index (BMI), the duration of MMT, the history of opioid use and occupation; and SHAP values were 1.25, 0.36, 0.21, 0.19 and 0.12, respectively. The SHAP feature dependence plot showed that BMI, MMT duration and the history of opioid use presented a nonlinear negative correlation with the reduction effect.
CONCLUSION
In acupuncture as adjunctive therapy for methadone reduction, the clinical factors should be considered comprehensively; and the interpretable predictive model provides a scientific basis for it, which is conducive to the improvement of clinical strategy of acupuncture for methadone reduction and the development of personalized reduction scheme.
Humans
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Methadone/therapeutic use*
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Acupuncture Therapy
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Adult
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Female
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Male
;
Machine Learning
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Middle Aged
;
Opiate Substitution Treatment
;
Young Adult
5.Spicy food consumption and risk of vascular disease: Evidence from a large-scale Chinese prospective cohort of 0.5 million people.
Dongfang YOU ; Dianjianyi SUN ; Ziyu ZHAO ; Mingyu SONG ; Lulu PAN ; Yaqian WU ; Yingdan TANG ; Mengyi LU ; Fang SHAO ; Sipeng SHEN ; Jianling BAI ; Honggang YI ; Ruyang ZHANG ; Yongyue WEI ; Hongxia MA ; Hongyang XU ; Canqing YU ; Jun LV ; Pei PEI ; Ling YANG ; Yiping CHEN ; Zhengming CHEN ; Hongbing SHEN ; Feng CHEN ; Yang ZHAO ; Liming LI
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(14):1696-1704
BACKGROUND:
Spicy food consumption has been reported to be inversely associated with mortality from multiple diseases. However, the effect of spicy food intake on the incidence of vascular diseases in the Chinese population remains unclear. This study was conducted to explore this association.
METHODS:
This study was performed using the large-scale China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) prospective cohort of 486,335 participants. The primary outcomes were vascular disease, ischemic heart disease (IHD), major coronary events (MCEs), cerebrovascular disease, stroke, and non-stroke cerebrovascular disease. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to assess the association between spicy food consumption and incident vascular diseases. Subgroup analysis was also performed to evaluate the heterogeneity of the association between spicy food consumption and the risk of vascular disease stratified by several basic characteristics. In addition, the joint effects of spicy food consumption and the healthy lifestyle score on the risk of vascular disease were also evaluated, and sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the reliability of the association results.
RESULTS:
During a median follow-up time of 12.1 years, a total of 136,125 patients with vascular disease, 46,689 patients with IHD, 10,097 patients with MCEs, 80,114 patients with cerebrovascular disease, 56,726 patients with stroke, and 40,098 patients with non-stroke cerebrovascular disease were identified. Participants who consumed spicy food 1-2 days/week (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.95, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = [0.93, 0.97], P <0.001), 3-5 days/week (HR = 0.96, 95% CI = [0.94, 0.99], P = 0.003), and 6-7 days/week (HR = 0.97, 95% CI = [0.95, 0.99], P = 0.002) had a significantly lower risk of vascular disease than those who consumed spicy food less than once a week ( Ptrend <0.001), especially in those who were younger and living in rural areas. Notably, the disease-based subgroup analysis indicated that the inverse associations remained in IHD ( Ptrend = 0.011) and MCEs ( Ptrend = 0.002) risk. Intriguingly, there was an interaction effect between spicy food consumption and the healthy lifestyle score on the risk of IHD ( Pinteraction = 0.037).
CONCLUSIONS
Our findings support an inverse association between spicy food consumption and vascular disease in the Chinese population, which may provide additional dietary guidance for the prevention of vascular diseases.
Humans
;
Male
;
Female
;
Prospective Studies
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged
;
Vascular Diseases/etiology*
;
Risk Factors
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Adult
;
Proportional Hazards Models
;
Cerebrovascular Disorders/epidemiology*
;
East Asian People
6.Observation of the clinical efficacy of moxa-stick moxibustion in treating diarrhea-predominant irritable bowel syndrome
Jindan MA ; Guona LI ; Fangyuan SUN ; Qin QI ; Luyi WU ; Chen ZHAO ; Huirong LIU ; Yuan LU ; Xiaopeng MA ; Liming CHEN ; Zhaoqin WANG ; Cili ZHOU ; Huangan WU ; Jue HONG
Journal of Acupuncture and Tuina Science 2025;23(2):135-143
Objective:To observe the clinical efficacy of gentle moxibustion at different temperatures in treating people with diarrhea-predominant bowel syndrome(IBS-D)due to spleen deficiency.Methods:A total of 108 IBS-D patients were divided into two groups using the random number table method,with 54 participants in each group.Moxibustion group 1 received gentle moxibustion at(43±1)℃at bilateral Tianshu(ST25)and Zusanli(ST36),lasting 30 min each session;moxibustion group 2 received gentle moxibustion at(37±1)℃at the same points.Both groups received the intervention 3 times weekly for a total of 18 sessions.Abdominal pain intensity,stool form,pattern-based efficacy,quality of life,and mental health assessments were performed at weeks 0,3,6,and 8.Results:The total effective rate for abdominal pain intensity was 87.8%in moxibustion group 1 versus 51.1%in moxibustion group 2,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).When the treatment finished,abdominal pain intensity,the Bristol score,IBS-symptom severity scale(IBS-SSS)score,self-rating anxiety scale(SAS)score,and self-rating depression scale(SDS)score dropped significantly in both groups(P<0.05),and the IBS-quality of life(IBS-QOL)score increased markedly(P<0.05).Between-group comparisons demonstrated that abdominal pain intensity,the Bristol general score,IBS-SSS score,traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)pattern score,and SDS score were significantly lower in moxibustion group 1 than in moxibustion group 2 at treatment week 6(P<0.05),and the IBS-QOL score was notably higher in moxibustion group 1(P<0.05).Conclusion:Whether at 43℃or 37℃,gentle moxibustion at Tianshu(ST25)and Zusanli(ST36)can improve abdominal pain,stool form,and quality of life,reduce disease severity,and mitigate TCM pattern in IBS-D patients;43℃gentle moxibustion performs better than 37℃gentle moxibustion in improving abdominal pain,stool form,disease severity,TCM pattern,quality of life,anxiety,and depression in IBS-D.
7.Clinical effectiveness of Wuhuang Shengji Decoction irrigation combined with incision and hanging suture in treatment of patients with perianal abscess
Yingming QIAN ; Jin XU ; Liming HUANG ; Yanwu LU
Chinese Journal of Nosocomiology 2025;35(15):2305-2309
OBJECTIVE To explore the clinical efficacy of Wuhuang Shengji decoction irrigation combined with inci-sion and hanging suture in patients with perianal abscess.METHODS A total of 121 patients with perianal abscess admitted to the Anorectal Department of Ningbo Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital from Jan.2022 to Jan.2024 were selected as the study subjects.According to the treatment methods,they were divided into a control group(n=37),a positive control group(n=41)anda research group(n=43).The control group was treated with incision and hanging suture,the positive control group was treated with recombinant human epidermal growth factor combined with incision and hanging suture,and the research group was treated with Wuhuang Shengji Decoction irrigation combined with incision and hanging suture.The clinical efficacy,the time of necrotic tissue shedding,new skin appearing,wound itch disappearing and wound healing and the recurrence rate were ob-served.The visual analogue scale(VAS),wound secretion score and expression levels of vascular endothelial growth factor(VEGF)and platelet-derived endothelial cell growth factor(PD-ECGF)in wound secretions were compared before and 14 days after treatment in the three groups.RESULTS The clinical efficacy of the study group(90.70%)was higher than that of the positive control group(87.80%)and control group(70.27%);the recur-rence rate of the study group(2.33%)was lower than that of the positive control group(9.76%)and the control group(18.92%),and the differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).The time required for necrotic tissue shedding,new skin appearing,wound itch disappearing and wound healing followed the trend of study group
8.Evidence-based guidelines for rehabilitation treatment after internal fixation of thoracolumbar spine fracture in adults (version 2025)
Zhengwei XU ; Liming CHENG ; Qixin CHEN ; Jian DONG ; Shunwu FAN ; Zhong FANG ; Shiqing FENG ; Haoyu FENG ; Haishan GUAN ; Weimin JIANG ; Dianming JIANG ; Yong HAI ; Lijun HE ; Yuan HE ; Bo LI ; Jianjun LI ; Feng LI ; Li LI ; Weishi LI ; Chunde LI ; Qi LIAO ; Baoge LIU ; Xiaoguang LIU ; Yong LIU ; Xuhua LU ; Shibao LU ; Bin LIN ; Wei MEI ; Chao MA ; Renfu QUAN ; Limin RONG ; Jiacan SU ; Honghui SUN ; Yuemin SONG ; Hongxun SANG ; Jun SHU ; Tiansheng SUN ; Jiwei TIAN ; Qiang WANG ; Xinwei WANG ; Zhe WANG ; Zheng WANG ; Liang YAN ; Guoyong YIN ; Jie ZHAO ; Yue ZHU ; Xiaobo ZHANG ; Xuesong ZHANG ; Zhongmin ZHANG ; Rongqiang ZHANG ; Dingjun HAO ; Yanzheng GAO ; Baorong HE
Chinese Journal of Trauma 2025;41(1):19-32
Thoracolumbar spine fracture often leads to severe pain, functional impairments, and neurological deficits, for which open reduction and internal fixation can effectively restore the spinal structural stability. Open decompression and reduction with internal fixation can help relieve spinal cord compression and improve spinal function in cases of concomitant cord injury. Although spinal stability can be restored through surgery, patients often face chronic pain and functional impairments postoperatively. A postoperative rehabilitation program is critical in optimizing therapeutic outcomes, reducing complications, and minimizing the risk of secondary injuries. However, current rehabilitation methods, such as physical therapy, functional training, and pain management, are confronted with problems in clinical practice, including significant variation in efficacy, poor patient adherence, and prolonged rehabilitation period. There is an urgent need for a unified rehabilitation strategy to address these problems. To this end, the Spinal Trauma Group of the Orthopedic Physicians Branch of the Chinese Medical Association and the Spine Health Professional Committee of the Chinese Human Health Technology Promotion Association organized experts from relevant fields to formulate Evidence-based guidelines for rehabilitation treatment after internal fixation of thoracolumbar spine fracture in adults ( version 2025) by integrating evidences from clinical researches and advanced rehabilitation concepts at home and abroad. A total number of 14 recommendations concerning the rehabilitation treatment with multimodal analgesia, psychological intervention, deep vein thrombosis prevention, core muscle and extremity exercise, appropriate use of braces, early weight-bearing, device-aided rehabilitation exercise, neuroregulatory therapy, rehabilitation team were put forward, aiming to standardize the post-operative rehabilitation process following internal fixation, promote the functional recovery, and enhance patients′ quality of life.
9.Clinical guideline for vertebral augmentation of acute symptomatic osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fractures (version 2025)
Bolong ZHENG ; Wei MEI ; Yanzheng GAO ; Liming CHENG ; Jian CHEN ; Qixin CHEN ; Liang CHEN ; Xigao CHENG ; Jian DONG ; Jin FAN ; Shunwu FAN ; Xiangqian FANG ; Zhong FANG ; Shiqing FENG ; Haoyu FENG ; Haishan GUAN ; Yong HAI ; Baorong HE ; Lijun HE ; Yuan HE ; Hua HUI ; Weimin JIANG ; Junjie JIANG ; Dianming JIANG ; Xuewen KANG ; Hua GUO ; Jianjun LI ; Feng LI ; Li LI ; Weishi LI ; Chunde LI ; Qi LIAO ; Baoge LIU ; Xiaoguang LIU ; Xuhua LU ; Shibao LU ; Bin LIN ; Chao MA ; Xuexiao MA ; Renfu QUAN ; Limin RONG ; Honghui SUN ; Tiansheng SUN ; Yueming SONG ; Hongxun SANG ; Jun SHU ; Jiacan SU ; Jiwei TIAN ; Xinwei WANG ; Zhe WANG ; Zheng WANG ; Zhengwei XU ; Huilin YANG ; Jiancheng YANG ; Liang YAN ; Feng YAN ; Guoyong YIN ; Xuesong ZHANG ; Zhongmin ZHANG ; Jie ZHAO ; Yuhong ZENG ; Yue ZHU ; Rongqiang ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Trauma 2025;41(9):805-818
Acute symptomatic osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fracture (ASOTLF) can lead to chronic low back pain, kyphosis deformity, pulmonary dysfunction, loss of mobility, and even life-threatening complications. Vertebral augmentation is currently the mainstream treatment method for this condition. In 2019, the Editorial Board of Chinese Journal of Trauma and the Spinal Trauma Group of Orthopedic Surgeons Branch of Chinese Medical Doctor Association collaboratively led the development of Clinical guideline for vertebral augmentation for acute symptomatic osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fractures. Six years later, with advances in clinical diagnosis and treatment techniques as well as accumulating evidence in related fields, the 2019 guideline requires updating. To this end, the Spinal Trauma Group of Orthopedic Surgeons Branch of Chinese Medical Doctor Association, the Spinal Health Professional Committee of China Human Health Science and Technology Promotion Association, and the Minimally Invasive Orthopedics Professional Committee of Shaanxi Medical Doctor Association have organized experts in the field to develop the Clinical guideline for vertebral augmentation of acute symptomatic osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fractures ( version 2025) , based on the latest evidence-based medical researches. This guideline incorporates 3 recommendations retained from the 2019 version with updated strength of evidence, along with 12 new recommendations. It provides recommendations from six aspects of diagnosis, pain management, treatment option selection, prevention of postoperative complications, anti-osteoporosis therapy, and postoperative rehabilitation, aiming to provide a reference for standard treatment of vertebral augmentation for ASOTLF in hospitals at all levels.
10.Epidemiological characteristics of chronic hepatitis B and establishment of prediction model based on socio-demographic index in Shenzhen, 2005-2023
Huawei XIONG ; Liming CAO ; Yanpeng CHEN ; Qiuying LYU ; Zhigao CHEN ; Jing REN ; Yan LU ; Zhen ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(9):1623-1631
Objectives:To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trends of chronic hepatitis B in Shenzhen from 2005 to 2023, develop a prediction models with performance evaluation, explore its associations with social demographic index (SDI) and inform targeted prevention strategy development.Methods:Based on surveillance data of infectious diseases, descriptive epidemiological methods were applied to analyze the spatiotemporal and population distribution characteristics. A multifactorial prediction model integrating the SDI was established, and its predictive performance was evaluated by using data from 2020-2023. Model accuracy was evaluated by using root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error ( MAPE). The association between SDI and incidence rates was assessed through generalized linear models. Results:A total of 235 703 chronic hepatitis B cases were reported cumulatively in Shenzhen from 2005-2023, with an annual average incidence rate of 98.84/100 000. Long-term trends revealed a significant increase in the incidence from 2005 to 2019. The incidence rate was 2.48 times higher in men than in women, and the majority of cases occurred in age group 20-50 years. The cases were mainly workers in manufacturing and services. Seasonal incidence peaks were observed in March and during May to November. The overall SDI exhibited a consistent upward trend, and the positive correlation between SDI and incidence rate was observed in central urban districts (Futian and Nanshan). In contrast, industrial zones (Guangming and Bao'an) saw a significant decline in incidence rates due to intensified prevention interventions despite the increase of SDI level. Model predictions indicated that the multivariate long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning model integrating SDI parameters outperformed both the spatiotemporal covariate- enhanced model and the augmented Bayesian structural time series model, with MAPE of 4.71%, 7.66% and 10.30%, respectively. Conclusion:SDI is a key social determinant associated with hepatitis B transmission risks, and dynamic thresholds can be established to develop tiered early warning mechanisms. It is suggested to integrate multisource SDI data into the LSTM framework, implement targeted interventions such as "rapid antibody screening in key areas + vaccination boosters for high-risk populations" and improve the timeliness of epidemic response through hybrid models to reduce disease burden level.


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