Objective: The survival of colorectal cancer in Qidong City, Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2016 was analyzed to provide a basis for the evaluation of prognosis and the formulation of prevention and control measures. Methods: Colorectal cancer data were obtained from the Qidong Cancer Registration and Reporting System, and the follow-up was up to December 31, 2021. The observed survival rate (OSR) and relative survival rate (RSR) were calculated by SURV 3.01 software, and the trend test was performed by Hakulinen's likelihood ratio test. The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of survival, and the ARIMA model was used to predict the trend of colorectal cancer survival. Results: There were 8 637 new cases of colorectal cancer in Qidong from 1972 to 2016. Dividing 1972-2016 into 9 periods at 5-year intervals, the 5-year OSR from 1972-1976 to 2012-2016 increased from 21.86% to 48.86%, and the 5-year RSR increased from 26.45% to 59.91%. The increasing trend of RSR was statistically significant (χ(2)=587.47, P<0.001). From 1972 to 2016, the survival rates of colorectal cancer in different sexes in Qidong were similar, and the 5-year RSR was 44.63% for men and 44.07% for women. Since the 1990s, the 5-year OSR and RSR for men have been lower than those for women. From 1972 to 2016, the 5-year RSR of colorectal cancer in Qidong was significantly improved in the 65-74 and ≥75-year-old groups, but the survival rate of the ≥75-year-old group was still the lowest (36.78%), followed by the 35-44-year-old group ( 43.04%). The time trend showed that the overall AAPC of colorectal cancer 5-year RSR in Qidong from 1972 to 2016 was 2.50% (t=16.45, P<0.001). The upward trend of different sexes was consistent, and the increase was greater in women (AAPC for males=2.18%, AAPC for females=2.54%, both P<0.05). The 5-year RSR of colorectal cancer in each age group showed an upward trend, and the AAPCs of the 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, and ≥75-year-old groups were 1.54%, 1.83%, 2.00%, 3.51% and 4.35%, respectively (all P<0.05). The prediction results of colorectal cancer survival rate showed that the 5-year RSR of colorectal cancer in Qidong will increase to 71.62% by 2026. Conclusions: The overall survival rate of colorectal cancer patients in Qidong has been greatly improved, but there is still room for improvement. We should continue to pay attention to the early diagnosis and early treatment of colorectal cancer.
Male ; Humans ; Female ; Aged ; Adult ; Survival Rate ; Prognosis ; Software ; Likelihood Functions ; Colorectal Neoplasms ; China/epidemiology* ; Incidence

Isolation-with-migration (IM) models have become popular for explaining population divergence in the presence of migrations. Bayesian methods are commonly used to estimate IM models, but they are limited to small data analysis or simple model inference. Recently three methods, IMa3, MIST, and AIM, resolved these limitations. Here, we describe the major problems addressed by these three software and compare differences among their inference methods, despite their use of the same standard likelihood function.
Bayes Theorem ; Gene Flow ; Likelihood Functions ; Phylogeny ; Statistics as Topic

Objective To derive the formulae for likelihood ratio （LR） calculation of half sibling relationships when both mothers participate. Methods Based on the fact that both biological mothers participate in the identification of half sibling relationship between the two individuals, test hypothesis for the identification of half sibling relationship was established. Conditional probability ratios of genetic evidence under null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis conditions were simplified, and then applied to a real case of half sibling relationship identification. At the same time, the LR of half sibling relationships under the assumption that only a single biological mother or none of the biological mothers participate were respectively calculated. Results In the cases of identification of half sibling relationship from same fathers, with no biological father involved, after the same genetic indicator test analysis, when both biological mothers participate in the identification, the accumulated LR value was higher than that of accumulated LR with only a single biological mother or no parents participating. Conclusion When the autosome STR test is used for the identification and analysis of half sibling relationship between two individuals, the calculation of LR is more simple, intuitive and operable with both mothers participating. The biological mothers should participate in the test as much as possible, otherwise the number of STR loci would need to be increased for a more specific conclusion.
Alleles ; Female ; Forensic Genetics ; Genotype ; Humans ; Likelihood Functions ; Models, Genetic ; Mothers ; Population Groups ; Siblings

PURPOSE: Authors develop a unified structural model that defines multirelationships between systematic factors causing excessive use of smartphones and the corresponding results. METHODS: A survey was conducted with adolescents who live in Seoul, Pusan, Gangneung, Donghae, and Samcheok from February to March 2016. Authors used SPSS, version 22.0, and AMOS, version 22.0, to analyze the survey results at a .05 significance level. To investigate demographic characteristics of the participants and their variations, descriptive analysis was used. The maximum likelihood estimate method was adopted to verify the fitness of the hypothetical model and the hypotheses therein. Authors used χ² statistics, goodness-of-fit index, adjusted goodness-of-fit index, comparative fit index, normed fit index, incremental fit index, root mean square residual, and root mean square error of approximation to verify the fitness of our structural model. RESULTS: (1) The proposed structural model demonstrated a fine fitness level. (2) The proposed structural model could describe the excessive use of a smartphone with 88.6% accuracy. (3) The absence of the family function and relationship between friends, impulsiveness, and low self-esteem were confirmed as key factors that cause an excessive use of smartphones. (4) Furthermore, impulsiveness and low self-esteem are closely related to the absence of family functions and relations between friends by 68.3% and 54.4%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Authors suggest that nursing intervention programs from various angles are required to reduce adolescents' excessive use of smartphones. For example, family communication programs would be helpful for both parents and children. Consultant programs about relationships with friends would also be helpful.
Adolescent ; Busan ; Child ; Consultants ; Friends ; Gangwon-do ; Humans ; Impulsive Behavior ; Likelihood Functions ; Methods ; Models, Structural ; Nursing ; Parents ; Self Concept ; Seoul ; Smartphone*

OBJECTIVE: As one of the most popular designs used in genetic research, family-based design has been well recognized for its advantages, such as robustness against population stratification and admixture. With vast amounts of genetic data collected from family-based studies, there is a great interest in studying the role of genetic markers from the aspect of risk prediction. This study aims to develop a new statistical approach for family-based risk prediction analysis with an improved prediction accuracy compared with existing methods based on family history. METHODS: In this study, we propose an ensemble-based likelihood ratio (ELR) approach, Fam-ELR, for family-based genomic risk prediction. Fam-ELR incorporates a clustered receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve method to consider correlations among family samples, and uses a computationally efficient tree-assembling procedure for variable selection and model building. RESULTS: Through simulations, Fam-ELR shows its robustness in various underlying disease models and pedigree structures, and attains better performance than two existing family-based risk prediction methods. In a real-data application to a family-based genome-wide dataset of conduct disorder, Fam-ELR demonstrates its ability to integrate potential risk predictors and interactions into the model for improved accuracy, especially on a genome-wide level. CONCLUSIONS By comparing existing approaches, such as genetic risk-score approach, Fam-ELR has the capacity of incorporating genetic variants with small or moderate marginal effects and their interactions into an improved risk prediction model. Therefore, it is a robust and useful approach for high-dimensional family-based risk prediction, especially on complex disease with unknown or less known disease etiology.
Area Under Curve ; Computer Simulation ; Conduct Disorder/physiopathology* ; Family Health ; Female ; Genetic Markers ; Genetic Predisposition to Disease ; Genetic Variation ; Genome, Human ; Genome-Wide Association Study ; Genomics ; Humans ; Likelihood Functions ; Male ; Models, Genetic ; Odds Ratio ; Pedigree ; ROC Curve ; Reproducibility of Results ; Risk Factors

Objective To establish a Daphnia model of alloxan-induced diabetes. Methods Daphnia were exposed to three different concentrations of alloxan (3, 5, and 10 mmol/L) for 30 minutes. Blood glucose and survival rate were recorded for 72 hours after alloxan insult. Sequence analysis and phylogenetic inference for glucose transporters (GLUT) were clustered with the maximum-likelihood method. Using reverse transcription and quantitative polymerase chain reaction techniques, we investigated the transcriptional changes of GLUT at 12 hours after alloxan (5 mmol/L) exposure. Results Compared with control, 3 mmol/L, and 5 mmol/L as well as 10 mmol/L alloxan initially induced transient blood glucose decline by 15% for 2 hours and 12 hours respectively. In Daphnia with 5 and 10 mmol/L alloxan, their blood glucose was persistently raised by about 150% since after 24-hour insult. Survival rate of Daphnia exposure to alloxan with concentrations of 3, 5, and 10 mmol/L were 90%, 75%, and 25% respectively. We predicted seven GLUT genes in the Daphnia genome and successfully amplified them using real-time polymerase chain reaction. Two of seven GLUT transcripts were down-regulated in Daphnia with 5 mmol/L alloxan-induced diabetes. Conclusion Alloxan-induced diabetes model was successfully established in the Daphnia pulex, suggesting diabetes-relevant experiments can be conducted using Daphnia.
Alloxan ; Animals ; Blood Glucose ; analysis ; Daphnia ; Diabetes Mellitus, Experimental ; chemically induced ; physiopathology ; Disease Models, Animal ; Gene Expression Regulation ; Glucose Transport Proteins, Facilitative ; genetics ; metabolism ; Likelihood Functions ; Phylogeny ; Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction

BACKGROUNDSeveral studies using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and positron emission tomography (PET) have indicated that cognitive remediation therapy (CRT) might improve cognitive function by changing brain activations in patients with schizophrenia. However, the results were not consistent in these changed brain areas in different studies. The present activation likelihood estimation (ALE) meta-analysis was conducted to investigate whether cognitive function change was accompanied by the brain activation changes, and where the main areas most related to these changes were in schizophrenia patients after CRT. Analyses of whole-brain studies and whole-brain + region of interest (ROI) studies were compared to explore the effect of the different methodologies on the results.

METHODSA computerized systematic search was conducted to collect fMRI and PET studies on brain activation changes in schizophrenia patients from pre- to post-CRT. Nine studies using fMRI techniques were included in the meta-analysis. Ginger ALE 2.3.1 was used to perform meta-analysis across these imaging studies.

RESULTSThe main areas with increased brain activation were in frontal and parietal lobe, including left medial frontal gyrus, left inferior frontal gyrus, right middle frontal gyrus, right postcentral gyrus, and inferior parietal lobule in patients after CRT, yet no decreased brain activation was found. Although similar increased activation brain areas were identified in ALE with or without ROI studies, analysis including ROI studies had a higher ALE value.

CONCLUSIONSThe current findings suggest that CRT might improve the cognition of schizophrenia patients by increasing activations of the frontal and parietal lobe. In addition, it might provide more evidence to confirm results by including ROI studies in ALE meta-analysis.

Brain ; physiopathology ; Cognition ; Cognitive Remediation ; Humans ; Likelihood Functions ; Magnetic Resonance Imaging ; Positron-Emission Tomography ; Schizophrenia ; diagnostic imaging ; therapy

PURPOSE: Totally extraperitoneal (TEP) hernia repair has gained in popularity in the past two decades. Despite the advantages TEP hernia repair, the approach is hindered by the relatively long learning curve of the surgery. We tried to estimate the necessary number of repetitions of TEP hernia repair in the learning curve using logarithmic and exponential function models. METHODS: We performed a retrospective review of all patients who underwent TEP hernia repair by a single surgeon consecutively at a single center. We calculated how many operations were needed to achieve a reduction in the expected operating time to mean operating time using logarithmic and exponential function models. RESULTS: In the 91 patients, the logarithmic function model predicted that 37 cases were needed to overcome the learning curve for TEP hernia repair while the exponential model predicted that 39 cases were needed. CONCLUSION: According to this study, at least 37 to 39 cases are needed in the overcome learning curve of TEP hernia repair. Further studies are needed to optimize surgical education and maximize quality.
Education ; Herniorrhaphy* ; Humans ; Learning Curve* ; Learning* ; Likelihood Functions ; Retrospective Studies

OBJECTIVETo propose a new method for dynamic positron emission tomographic (PET) image reconstruction using low rank and sparse penalty (L&S).

METHODSThe L&S reconstruction model was established and the split Bregman method was used to solve the optimal cost function. The one-tissue compartment model was used to simulate a set of PET 82Rb myocardial perfusion image. The L&S reconstruction method was compared with maximum likelihood expectation maximization (MLEM) method, low-rank penalty method and sparse penalty method.

RESULTSThe L&S reconstruction method had the smallest MSE and well maintained the feature information. The polar map created by L&S method was the most similar with the reference actual polar map.

CONCLUSIONL&S reconstruction method is better than the other three methods in both visual and quantitative analysis of the PET images.

Algorithms ; Humans ; Likelihood Functions ; Positron-Emission Tomography ; methods

OBJECTIVE: To analyze and discuss four methods of calculating likelihood ratio of DNA mixture. METHODS: In the case with CNAS-T0757 proficiency testing in 2013, the likelihood ratios were calculated and compared among four methods, including unrestricted combinatorial method, Clayton's method, p2 principle method, and recommendations from ISFG. RESULTS: The likelihood ratios were maximum by Clayton's method and recommendations from ISFO, followed by result of the unrestricted combinational method. The minimum likelihood ratio was obtained by p2 principle. CONCLUSION The unrestricted combinational method could give fUrthest consideration to both information preservation and appraiser protection.
DNA/genetics* ; DNA Fingerprinting ; Humans ; Likelihood Functions