1.Expert consensus on the clinical application of parenteral direct thrombin inhibitors in special populations
Xin YAO ; Yuan BIAN ; Lizhu HAN ; Qinan YIN ; Yang LEI ; Zimeng WAN ; Luyao HUANG ; Danjie ZHAO ; Yu YAN ; Qin LI ; Baorong HU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(8):965-975
OBJECTIVE To form an expert consensus addressing clinical issues regarding the use of parenteral direct thrombin inhibitors (DTIs) in special populations. METHODS Led by the Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People’s Hospital(the Affiliated Hospital of UESTC), a multidisciplinary working group was formed comprising experts from multiple fields, including clinical pharmacy, cardiac surgery, obstetrics, pediatrics and evidence-based medicine. Through literature review and the Delphi method, clinical questions regarding the efficacy and safety of parenteral DTIs used in special populations were identified. A structured design was adopted using the “Population-Intervention-Comparison-Outcome” (PICO) framework;systematic searches were conducted in CJFD, PubMed, Embase and other databases. Relevant evidence from randomized controlled trials,cohort studies and systematic reviews were included and synthesized. Evidence quality was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment,Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach, and recommendations were formulated through three rounds of Delphi surveys and expert consensus meetings. RESULTS &CONCLUSIONS Seven clinical questions were ultimately selected (with a consensus rate exceeding 90%), resulting in the formulation of seven recommendations on the use of parenteral DTIs in special populations, including children, pregnant women, patients with hepatic or renal impairment, patients with mesenteric venous thrombosis, and individuals with thrombophilia. These recommendations clarify the preferred agents, dosing ranges, monitoring parameters, and safety management strategies for parenteral DTIs in these special populations. This expert consensus, which is formulated based on the best available evidence, provides evidence-based guidance for standardized and individualized use of parenteral DTIs in special populations.
2.Effect of repetitive peripheral magnetic stimulation combined with upper limb intelligent robot training on upper limb function in children with unilateral spastic cerebral palsy
Mingdi LI ; Yin WANG ; Hewei ZHANG ; Mei HE ; Hongliang HUO ; Qin GU ; Guanjun LIANG
Chinese Journal of Rehabilitation Theory and Practice 2026;32(5):588-596
ObjectiveTo investigate the effect of repetitive peripheral magnetic stimulation (rPMS) combined with upper limb intelligent robotic training on muscle tension, motor function and cortical excitability in children with unilateral spastic cerebral palsy (USCP). MethodsFrom March, 2023 to December, 2024, 90 children with USCP admitted to Children's Hospital of Soochow University were selected and randomly divided into control group (n = 30), rPMS group (n = 30) and combined group (n = 30). The control group received conventional occupational therapy. The rPMS group received rPMS intervention followed by conventional occupational therapy. The combined group received rPMS followed by upper limb intelligent robot training, for four weeks. Before and after treatment, muscle tension of biceps brachii was assessed using the modified Ashworth Scale (MAS); upper limb motor function was evaluated using the Fugl-Meyer Assessment-Upper Extremity (FMA-UE) and upper limb intelligent parameters; and cortical excitability was measured using transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), including resting motor threshold (RMT) and motor-evoked potential (MEP) amplitude of the affected hemisphere. ResultsAfter treatment, MAS grades improved in all groups (|Z| > 3.523, P < 0.001), and the improvement in the combined group was superior to that in the control group (P < 0.05). Significant intra-group (F > 65.21, P < 0.001), inter-group (F > 17.94, P < 0.001) and interaction effects (F > 5.36, P < 0.01) were observed in FMA-UE scores, upper limb intelligent parameters and TMS parameters. Post Hoc analysis showed that the combined group demonstrated significantly greater improvements in FMA-UE scores, upper limb intelligent parameters, and TMS parameters compared with both the control and rPMS groups (all P < 0.01). Except for FMA-UE scores, the rPMS group showed significantly greater improvements than the control group in upper limb intelligent parameters (mechanical feedback, trajectory, and range of motion) and TMS parameters (RMT and MEP amplitude) (P < 0.05). ConclusionrPMS combined with upper limb intelligent robotic training can reduce upper limb muscle tension, improve motor function, and enhance cortical excitability in children with USCP.
3.Electroacupuncture Ameliorates NLRP3-mediated Pyroptosis in Spinal Cord Injury Rats by Reshaping The Gut Microbiota
Yin-Jie CUI ; Hong-Ru LI ; Jing-Yi LIU ; Hai-Lin DU ; Shu-Wen LIU ; Yuan YANG ; Chen-Guang ZHENG ; Jian-Qin XIANG ; Xiao-Juan SONG
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(5):1132-1153
ObjectiveSpinal cord injury (SCI) directly impairs the regulatory function of the autonomic nervous system, induces intestinal dysfunction, and significantly reduces patients’ quality of life. Preclinical studies have shown that electroacupuncture (EA) therapy can regulate the brain-gut axis and is used to treat central nervous system diseases such as major depressive disorder, Alzheimer’s disease and Parkinson’s disease. Recent research has established that fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) from EA-treated SCI rats restored intestinal motility and colonic morphology. However, it remains unclear whether the regulation of gut microbiota by EA therapy directly contributes to neural repair after SCI. This study aims to explore whether gut microbiota mediates the neuroprotective effect of EA in the treatment of SCI and its possible mechanism. MethodsThe study employed RNA transcriptome analysis of spinal cord tissue to characterize gene expression profiles and to identify key signaling pathways following EA treatment for SCI. Hematoxylin-Eosin (HE) staining and Nissl staining were used to observe the morphological changes in spinal cord tissue. Western blot (WB) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) were applied to detect the effects of EA on the expression of proteins related to nucleotide-binding domain leucine-rich repeat and pyrin domain-containing receptor 3 (NLRP3) -dependent pyroptosis. Using 16S rDNA sequencing, the study observed alterations in gut microbiota diversity and community composition in SCI rats. Prior to establishing SCI models, rats were pretreated with an antibiotic cocktail to induce gut dysbiosis, and the effects on intestinal function and spinal cord neural repair were evaluated. FMT was performed to investigate the regulatory effects of post-EA FMT on motor function, general status, liver and spleen indices, and NLRP3-mediated pyroptosis in SCI rats. ResultsEA improved motor function and reduced regulated neuronal cell death in SCI rats. Transcriptomic analysis demonstrated the activation of immune- and inflammation-related pathways post-SCI, including NOD-like receptors, nuclear factor-kappa B(NF-κB), and Toll-like receptor (TLR) pathways. EA primarily influenced intestinal inflammation and autoimmune functions. 16S rDNA sequencing illustrated that EA did not alter the diversity of gut microbiota. However, EA altered the gut microbiota composition in SCI rats, increasing Lactobacillus and Akkermansia genera while rebalancing the Firmicutes/Bacteroidetes ratio. Furthermore, depletion of gut microbiota by antibiotics disrupted the intestinal barrier, reduced the expression of intestinal barrier proteins Zonula Occludens-1 (ZO-1) and Occludin, elevated serum lipopolysaccharide-binding protein (LBP) levels, exacerbated spinal cord tissue damage, and hindered motor function recovery in SCI rats. FMT from donors treated with EA reduced LBP levels in the intestine, blood, and spinal cord of rats, inhibited the TLR4 myeloid differentiation primary response protein 88 (MyD88)-NF‑κB pathway and NLRP3-dependent pyroptosis, and improved motor function. On the other hand, FMT treatment resulted in decreased body weight and food intake, whereas FMT using EA-treated donors effectively alleviated these alterations. ConclusionEA effectively alleviated neuroinflammatory responses in rats with SCI, primarily through regulating the gut microbiota and suppressing the NLRP3-dependent pyroptosis signaling pathway.
4.Electroacupuncture Ameliorates NLRP3-mediated Pyroptosis in Spinal Cord Injury Rats by Reshaping The Gut Microbiota
Yin-Jie CUI ; Hong-Ru LI ; Jing-Yi LIU ; Hai-Lin DU ; Shu-Wen LIU ; Yuan YANG ; Chen-Guang ZHENG ; Jian-Qin XIANG ; Xiao-Juan SONG
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(5):1132-1153
ObjectiveSpinal cord injury (SCI) directly impairs the regulatory function of the autonomic nervous system, induces intestinal dysfunction, and significantly reduces patients’ quality of life. Preclinical studies have shown that electroacupuncture (EA) therapy can regulate the brain-gut axis and is used to treat central nervous system diseases such as major depressive disorder, Alzheimer’s disease and Parkinson’s disease. Recent research has established that fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) from EA-treated SCI rats restored intestinal motility and colonic morphology. However, it remains unclear whether the regulation of gut microbiota by EA therapy directly contributes to neural repair after SCI. This study aims to explore whether gut microbiota mediates the neuroprotective effect of EA in the treatment of SCI and its possible mechanism. MethodsThe study employed RNA transcriptome analysis of spinal cord tissue to characterize gene expression profiles and to identify key signaling pathways following EA treatment for SCI. Hematoxylin-Eosin (HE) staining and Nissl staining were used to observe the morphological changes in spinal cord tissue. Western blot (WB) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) were applied to detect the effects of EA on the expression of proteins related to nucleotide-binding domain leucine-rich repeat and pyrin domain-containing receptor 3 (NLRP3) -dependent pyroptosis. Using 16S rDNA sequencing, the study observed alterations in gut microbiota diversity and community composition in SCI rats. Prior to establishing SCI models, rats were pretreated with an antibiotic cocktail to induce gut dysbiosis, and the effects on intestinal function and spinal cord neural repair were evaluated. FMT was performed to investigate the regulatory effects of post-EA FMT on motor function, general status, liver and spleen indices, and NLRP3-mediated pyroptosis in SCI rats. ResultsEA improved motor function and reduced regulated neuronal cell death in SCI rats. Transcriptomic analysis demonstrated the activation of immune- and inflammation-related pathways post-SCI, including NOD-like receptors, nuclear factor-kappa B(NF-κB), and Toll-like receptor (TLR) pathways. EA primarily influenced intestinal inflammation and autoimmune functions. 16S rDNA sequencing illustrated that EA did not alter the diversity of gut microbiota. However, EA altered the gut microbiota composition in SCI rats, increasing Lactobacillus and Akkermansia genera while rebalancing the Firmicutes/Bacteroidetes ratio. Furthermore, depletion of gut microbiota by antibiotics disrupted the intestinal barrier, reduced the expression of intestinal barrier proteins Zonula Occludens-1 (ZO-1) and Occludin, elevated serum lipopolysaccharide-binding protein (LBP) levels, exacerbated spinal cord tissue damage, and hindered motor function recovery in SCI rats. FMT from donors treated with EA reduced LBP levels in the intestine, blood, and spinal cord of rats, inhibited the TLR4 myeloid differentiation primary response protein 88 (MyD88)-NF‑κB pathway and NLRP3-dependent pyroptosis, and improved motor function. On the other hand, FMT treatment resulted in decreased body weight and food intake, whereas FMT using EA-treated donors effectively alleviated these alterations. ConclusionEA effectively alleviated neuroinflammatory responses in rats with SCI, primarily through regulating the gut microbiota and suppressing the NLRP3-dependent pyroptosis signaling pathway.
5.Visualization Analysis of Research Hotspots and Development Trends of Immune Cells in Radiotherapy for Rectal Cancer
Lingzhen JIANG ; Feiyu QIN ; Yuna LI ; Yan QIN ; Junhui TANG ; Liang MING ; Xiaowei QI ; Zhaohui HUANG ; Yuan YIN
Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment 2026;53(7):523-533
Objective To analyze the overall characteristics, research hotspots, and development trends of immune cell-related studies in radiotherapy for rectal cancer. Methods A systematic search was conducted by using Web of Science Core Collection to retrieve articles related to radiation therapy and immune cells in rectal cancer published from 1991 to 2024. Advanced bibliometric tools, such as VOSviewer and CiteSpace, were utilized to facilitate analysis and describe publication trends, geographic contributions, institutional affiliations, journal prominence, author collaboration, and prominent keywords. Results The annual number of relevant publications has increased steadily, showing remarkable growth over the past five years. Studies focusing on adaptive immune cells (T and B cells) account for the largest proportion of works and form the most extensive collaboration networks, reflecting the central role of T cell–mediated antitumor immunity in radiotherapy. Meanwhile, innate immune cells, including myeloid-derived suppressor cells, macrophages, monocytes, and neutrophils, are increasingly investigated for their regulatory roles in shaping the tumor immune microenvironment and influencing therapeutic responses. Among countries, China and the United States have contributed the highest number of publications and demonstrated strong academic influence. While several stable research groups have been formed, intergroup collaboration remains limited. Keyword analysis revealed that radiotherapy-induced immune modulation, tumor immune microenvironment remodeling, and treatment response have emerged as major research hotspots. Conclusion Research on immune cells in rectal cancer radiotherapy has progressed rapidly in recent years. The emphasis of this field has gradually shifted from single-treatment approaches to mechanistic studies investigating the interaction between radiotherapy and the tumor immune microenvironment. The field still demonstrates considerable potential for future research and clinical translational applications.
6.Network pharmacology, molecular docking, and animal experiments reveal mechanism of Zhizhu Decoction in regulating macrophage polarization to reduce adipose tissue inflammation in obese children.
Yong-Kai YIN ; Chang-Miao NIU ; Li-Ting LIANG ; Mo DAN ; Tian-Qi GAO ; Yan-Hong QIN ; Xiao-Ning YAN
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(1):228-238
Network pharmacology and molecular docking were employed to predict the mechanism of Zhizhu Decoction in regulating macrophage polarization to reduce adipose tissue inflammation in obese children, and animal experiments were then carried out to validate the prediction results. The active ingredients and targets of Zhizhu Decoction were retrieved from the Traditional Chinese Medicine Systems Pharmacology Database and Analysis Platform(TCMSP). The inflammation related targets in the adipose tissue of obese children were searched against GeneCards, OMIM, and DisGeNET, and a drug-disease-target network was established. STRING was used to construct a protein-protein interaction(PPI) network and screen for core targets. R language was used to carry out Gene Ontology(GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes(KEGG) pathway enrichment analyses. AutoDock was used for the molecular docking between core targets and active ingredients. 24 SPF grade 6-week C57B/6J male mice were adaptively fed for 1 week, and 8 mice were randomly selected as the blank group. The remaining 16 mice were fed with high-fat diet for 8 weeks to onstruct a high-fat diet induced mouse obesity model. After successful modeling, the 16 mice were randomly divided into model group and Zhizhu Decoction group, with 8 mice in each group. Zhizhu Decoction group was intervened by gavage for 14 days, once a day. Blank group and model group were given an equal amount of sterile double distilled water(ddH_2O) by gavage daily. After the last gavage, serum and inguinal adipose tissue were collected from mice for testing. The morphology of inguinal adipose tissue was observed by hematoxylin-eosin(HE) staining, the levels of inflammatory factors interleukin-6(IL-6) and tumor necrosis factor-α(TNF-α)were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA), and the protein expression of macrophage marker molecule nitric oxide synthase(iNOS) and epidermal growth factor like hormone receptor 1(F4/80) was detected by immunofluorescence staining. Network pharmacology predicted luteolin, naringenin, and nobiletin as the main active ingredients in Zhizhu Decoction and 15 core targets. KEGG pathway enrichment analysis revealed involvement in the key signaling pathway of nuclear factor κB(NF-κB). Molecular docking showed that the active ingredients of Zhizhu Decoction bound well to the core targets. Animal experiment showed that compared with the model group, Zhizhu Decoction reduced the distribution of inflammatory cytokines in the inguinal adipose tissue of mice, lowered the levels of TNF-α and IL-6 in the serum(P<0.05, P<0.01), and down-regulated the expression of iNOS and F4/80(P<0.05). The results showed that the active ingredients in Zhizhu Decoction, such as luteolin, naringenin, and nobiletin, inhibit the aggregation of macrophages in adipose tissue, downregulate their classic activated macrophage(M1) polarization, reduce the expression of inflammatory factors IL-6 and TNF-α, and thus improve adipose tissue inflammation in obese mice.
Animals
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/pharmacology*
;
Molecular Docking Simulation
;
Adipose Tissue/immunology*
;
Mice
;
Male
;
Humans
;
Network Pharmacology
;
Macrophages/immunology*
;
Mice, Inbred C57BL
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Child
;
Protein Interaction Maps/drug effects*
;
Obesity/genetics*
;
Inflammation/drug therapy*
7.Rapid characterization and identification of non-volatile components in Rhododendron tomentosum by UHPLC-Q-TOF-MS method.
Su-Ping XIAO ; Long-Mei LI ; Bin XIE ; Hong LIANG ; Qiong YIN ; Jian-Hui LI ; Jie DU ; Ji-Yong WANG ; Run-Huai ZHAO ; Yan-Qin XU ; Yun-Bo SUN ; Zong-Yuan LU ; Peng-Fei TU
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(11):3054-3069
This study aimed to characterize and identify the non-volatile components in aqueous and ethanolic extracts of the stems and leaves of Rhododendron tomentosum by using sensitive and efficient ultra-performance liquid chromatography-quadrupole-time of flight mass spectrometry(UHPLC-Q-TOF-MS) combined with a self-built information database. By comparing with reference compounds, analyzing fragment ion information, searching relevant literature, and using a self-built information database, 118 compounds were identified from the aqueous and ethanolic extracts of R. tomentosum, including 35 flavonoid glycosides, 15 phenolic glycosides, 12 flavonoids, 7 phenolic acids, 7 phenylethanol glycosides, 6 tannins, 6 phospholipids, 5 coumarins, 5 monoterpene glycosides, 6 triterpenes, 3 fatty acids, and 11 other types of compounds. Among them, 102 compounds were reported in R. tomentosum for the first time, and 36 compounds were identified by comparing them with reference compounds. The chemical components in the ethanolic and aqueous extracts of R. tomentosum leaves and stems showed slight differences, with 84 common chemical components accounting for 71.2% of the total 118 compounds. This study systematically characterized and identified the non-volatile chemical components in the ethanolic and aqueous extracts of R. tomentosum for the first time. The findings provide a reference for active ingredient research, quality control, and product development of R. tomentosum.
Rhododendron/chemistry*
;
Chromatography, High Pressure Liquid/methods*
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/chemistry*
;
Mass Spectrometry/methods*
;
Plant Leaves/chemistry*
8.Effects of Yishen Yangsui formula() on pyroptosis in the spinal cord tissue in rats with degenerative cervical myelopathy.
Guo-Liang MA ; He YIN ; Bo XU ; Min-Shan FENG ; Dan ZHANG ; Dian ZHANG ; Xiao-Kuan QIN ; Li-Guo ZHU ; Bo-Wen YANG ; Xin CHEN
China Journal of Orthopaedics and Traumatology 2025;38(5):532-539
OBJECTIVE:
To preliminarily investigate the effects and mechanism of action of Yishen Yangsui Formula (, YSYSF)on the recovery of neurological function in rats with degenerative cervical myelopathy.
METHODS:
Fifty adult SD female rats were randomly divided into control group, sham group, model group, YSYSF group and positive drug group by using randomized numerical table method. In the model group, YSYSF group and positive drug group, polyvinyl alcohol acrylamide interpenetrating network hydrogel(water-absorbent swelling material) was used to construct a rat spinal cord chronic compression model. The sham group was implanted with the water-absorbent swelling material and then removed without causing spinal cord compression. The control group, the sham group and the model group were given equal amounts of saline by gavage, the group of YSYSF was given Chinese herbal medicine soup by gavage 9.1 g·kg-1 once a day, and the positive drug group was given tetrahexylsalicylglucoside sodium monosialate ganglioside by intraperitoneal injection 4.2 mg·kg-1 once a day. The motor function of the rats was assessed by the BBB method after 1, 3, 7, and 14 d of drug administration. The spinal cord tissues were taken from rats executed 14 d after drug administration, and the morphological changes of the spinal cord compression site were observed by HE staining, and the expression levels of Caspase-1, GSDMD, NLRP3, PYCARD, IL-1β, and IL-18 were detected in the area of spinal cord injury by Western blot method.
RESULTS:
The BBB scores of the control group and the sham group were normal at all time points after modeling, which were higher than the BBB scores of the model group, the YSYSF, and the positive drug group (P<0.05). From the 3rd day after gavage, at all time points, the BBB scores of rats in the YSYSF group and the positive drug group were higher than those of rats in the model group (P<0.05). The staining pattern of HE spinal cord tissue was normal in the control group and the sham group, and the HE spinal cord in the model group was severely damaged with a large number of neuron deaths, whereas the damage to the spinal cord and neuron cells was reduced in the YSYSF group and the positive drug group. The expression levels of caspase-1, GSDMD, NLRP3, PYCARD, IL-1β and IL-18 in the spinal cord of the model group were significantly higher than those of the sham group (P<0.0001), and the expression levels of caspase-1, GSDMD, NLRP3, PYCARD, IL-1β, and IL-18 in the YSYSF group and the drug group were significantly lower than those in the model group (P<0.05).
CONCLUSION
YSYSF can improve the motor function of rats with degenerative cervical spinal cord disease, alleviate the pathological changes, and promote the recovery of spinal cord neurological function. The specific mechanism may be related to the inhibition of the activation of inflammatory vesicles NLRP3 and PYCARD, the reduction of the release of inflammatory factors IL-1β and IL-18, the reduction of the expression of caspase-1 and GSDMD, the reduction of cellular death, and the inhibition of inflammatory response.
Animals
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Female
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
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Rats
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Rats, Sprague-Dawley
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Pyroptosis/drug effects*
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Spinal Cord/pathology*
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NLR Family, Pyrin Domain-Containing 3 Protein
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Spinal Cord Diseases/drug therapy*
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Interleukin-1beta/metabolism*
9.Investigating the correlation between white matter injury and cerebral perfusion in preterm infants using arterial spin labeling.
Xiang-Bo KONG ; Fan-Yue QIN ; Wen-Li DUAN ; Lin LU ; Xiao-Chan GUO ; Yan-Ran XUE ; Yin-Gang HONG ; Fa-Lin XU
Chinese Journal of Contemporary Pediatrics 2025;27(6):661-667
OBJECTIVES:
To explore the relationship between white matter injury (WMI) and cerebral perfusion in preterm infants using arterial spin labeling (ASL).
METHODS:
A total of 293 preterm infants (gestational age <34 weeks) hospitalized at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University between June 2022 and June 2024 were included. After achieving clinical stability, the infants underwent brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and ASL. Based on MRI findings, infants were classified into WMI (n=66) and non-WMI (n=227) groups. Cerebral perfusion parameters were compared between groups, and the association between WMI and perfusion alterations was evaluated.
RESULTS:
The WMI group showed a higher incidence of mild intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) than the non-WMI group (P<0.05). Significantly lower cerebral perfusion was observed in the WMI group across bilateral frontal, temporal, parietal, and occipital lobes, as well as the basal ganglia and thalamus (P<0.05). After adjusting for gestational age, corrected gestational age at ASL scan, and mild IVH, WMI remained significantly associated with reduced regional perfusion (P<0.05).
CONCLUSIONS
WMI in preterm infants correlates with localized cerebral hypoperfusion. ASL-detected perfusion abnormalities may provide novel insights into WMI pathogenesis.
Humans
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White Matter/blood supply*
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Infant, Newborn
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Spin Labels
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Infant, Premature
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Female
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Male
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Cerebrovascular Circulation
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Magnetic Resonance Imaging
10.Development of a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease incidence in community-dwelling population aged 40 years and above in Shanghai
Yixuan ZHANG ; Yiling WU ; Jinxin ZANG ; Xuyan SU ; Xin YIN ; Jing LI ; Wei LUO ; Minjun YU ; Wei WANG ; Qi ZHAO ; Qin WANG ; Genming ZHAO ; Yonggen JIANG ; Na WANG
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(8):669-675
ObjectiveTo develop a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) incidence among the community-dwelling population aged 40 years old and above, so as to provide targeted references for the screening and prevention of COPD. MethodsBased on a natural population cohort in suburban Shanghai, a total of 3 381 randomly selected participants aged ≥40 years underwent pulmonary function tests between July and October 2021. Cox stepwise regression analysis was used to develop overall and gender-specific risk prediction models, along with the construction of corresponding risk nomograms. Model predictive performance was evaluated using the C-indice, area under the curve (AUC) values, and Brier score. Stability was assessed through 10-fold cross-validation and sensitivity analysis. ResultsA total of 3 019 participants were included, with a median follow-up duration of 4.6 years. The COPD incidence density was 17.22 per 1 000 person-years, significantly higher in males (32.04/1 000 person-years) than that in females (7.38/1 000 person-years) (P<0.001). The overall risk prediction model included the variables such as gender, age, education level, BMI, smoking, passive smoking, and respiratory comorbidities. The male-specific model incorporated the variables such as age, BMI, respiratory comorbidities, and smoking, while the female-specific model included age, marital status, respiratory comorbidities, and pulmonary tuberculosis history. The C-indices for the overall, male-specific, and female-specific models were 0.829, 0.749, and 0.807, respectively. The 5-year AUC values were 0.785, 0.658, and 0.811, with Brier scores of 0.103, 0.176, and 0.059, respectively. Both 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and sensitivity analysis (excluding participants with a follow-up duration of <6 months) yielded C-indices were above 0.740. ConclusionThis study developed concise and practical overall and gender-specific COPD risk prediction models and corresponding nomograms. The models demonstrated robust performance in predicting COPD incidence, providing a valuable reference for identifying high-risk populations and formulating targeted screening and personalized management strategies.

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