1.3D printed poly-L-lactic acid bone scaffolds in repair of bone defects
Fengli YANG ; Chao ZHOU ; Wei XIONG ; Yuxiang ZHOU ; Dengshun LI ; Xin WANG ; Zhanzhen LI
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(2):507-515
BACKGROUND:3D-printed bone tissue engineering scaffolds have obvious advantages in the research and clinical treatment of bone defect repair.As one of the important raw materials for 3D printed bone scaffolds,poly-L-lactic acid has a great potential for application in performing bone defect repair,but clinical patients with different bone defect causative factors have different requirements for the comprehensive performance of poly-L-lactic acid bone scaffolds.OBJECTIVE:To summarize and review the development of 3D printing technology and poly-L-lactic acid scaffolds and the design strategies chosen for scaffolds for bone repair in the setting of bone diseases such as osteomyelitis,bone tumor,osteonecrosis,and osteoporosis.METHODS:Literature from CNKI,WanFang,PubMed,Science Direct,and Web of Science databases were searched and screened from 1994 to 2024.Search terms were"3D printing,polylactic acid,bone tissue engineering scaffold,osteomyelitis,bone tumor,osteonecrosis,osteoporosis,bone defect"in Chinese and English.The screened 62 articles were systematically summarized and analyzed.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)Poly-L-lactic acid is considered to be an ideal raw material for artificial bone scaffold design due to its non-toxicity,processability,biocompatibility,and ability to self-degrade in the human environment.The application of 3D printing technology has enabled poly-L-lactic acid bone scaffolds to meet the multilayered and porous structural design requirements of biomimetic artificial bone repair materials,and to optimize the mechanical properties for better bone repair.(2)According to different bone disease microenvironments,timely adjustment of the functional design of poly-L-lactic acid scaffolds is important for the comprehensive osteogenic efficacy of the scaffolds.The article discusses the application of poly-L-lactic acid scaffolds in bone disease environments such as osteomyelitis,bone tumor,osteonecrosis,and osteoporosis,and highlights the importance of rationally grasping the timing of bone disease treatment and bone tissue regeneration for bone defects caused by different bone diseases.(3)Although poly-L-lactic acid scaffolds show potential in bone repair,there are still some problems,such as the need to further optimize the structural design of the scaffolds to fit new bone regeneration,enhance the bioactivity of the scaffolds,and take into account other functions(e.g.,antimicrobial,anti-tumor,and anti-osteoporosis)in order to adapt to the needs of bone tissue repair in different pathological environments.
2.Therapeutic efficacy of extracorporeal shock wave therapy in the upper trapezius muscle area combined with exercise control training in patients with chronic non-specific neck pain
Haojing LI ; Xin WANG ; Chenglin SONG ; Shengnan ZHANG ; Yunxin CHEN
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(5):1162-1170
BACKGROUND:The incidence rate of chronic non-specific neck pain is high and the etiology is unknown.Myofascial pain and deep cervical flexor atrophy are the key factors.Extracorporeal shockwave therapy can improve microcirculation,relieve local pain,and delay the degenerative development of the cervical spine,while motion control training can significantly improve neck muscle strength and endurance and reduce neck pain.However,both methods have limited effectiveness when applied individually.OBJECTIVE:To explore the therapeutic efficacy of extracorporeal shock wave intervention combined with motion control training at the upper trapezius muscle on chronic non-specific neck pain.METHODS:Forty-two patients with chronic non-specific neck pain recruited from Shenyang Sport University were randomly divided into three groups:a shock wave group(n=14),in which extracorporeal shockwave intervention at the upper trapezius muscle was given for 10-15 minutes,once a week for 4 weeks;a training group(n=14),in which motion control training was given for 40-50 minutes,three times a week for 4 weeks;and a combination group(n=14),in which extracorporeal shockwave intervention at the upper trapezius muscle combined with motion control training was performed for 4 weeks.Patients were assessed for pain intensity,cervical spine function,upper trapezius muscle thickness,hemodynamic parameters,and serum interleukin 6 and tumor necrosis factor α levels before intervention,1 week and 4 weeks after intervention.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)Compared with the pre-intervention period,the visual analogue scale scores and neck disability index in the three groups were lower after 1 and 4 weeks of intervention(P<0.05),and the visual analogue scale scores and neck disability index in the combination group were lower than those of the shock wave group and the training group(P<0.05).(2)Compared with the pre-intervention period,the upper trapezius thickness increased in the training group and the combination group after 4 weeks of intervention(P<0.05);the upper trapezius thickness was greater in the combination group than in the shock wave group and the training group after 4 weeks of intervention(P<0.05).(3)The shock wave group and the combination group had an increase in the peak systolic velocity of the ascending segment of the transverse carotid artery(P<0.05)and a decrease in the resistance index(P<0.05)after 1 and 4 weeks of intervention,while the training group showed an increase in the peak systolic velocity of the ascending segment of the transverse carotid artery(P<0.05)and a decrease in the resistance index(P<0.05)after 4 weeks of intervention.The peak systolic velocity of the ascending segment of the transverse carotid artery in the combination group was higher(P<0.05)and the resistance index was lower(P<0.05)than those in the shockwave group and the training group after 1 and 4 weeks of intervention.(4)Compared with the pre-intervention period,the levels of interleukin 6 and tumor necrosis factor α were reduced in the shock wave and combination groups after 1 and 4 weeks of intervention(P<0.05),and in the training group after 4 weeks of intervention(P<0.05).After 1 and 4 weeks of intervention,the levels of interleukin 6 and tumor necrosis factor α were lower in the combination group than in the shock wave group and the training group(P<0.05).To conclude,extracorporeal shock wave combined with motion control training for chronic non-specific neck pain significantly reduces pain and improves neck function,and the mechanism of action may be to promote the blood flow velocity at the trigger point,reduce blood flow resistance,reduce the serum levels of interleukin 6 and tumor necrosis factor α,and increase the thickness of the upper trapezius muscle.
3.3D printed poly-L-lactic acid bone scaffolds in repair of bone defects
Fengli YANG ; Chao ZHOU ; Wei XIONG ; Yuxiang ZHOU ; Dengshun LI ; Xin WANG ; Zhanzhen LI
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(2):507-515
BACKGROUND:3D-printed bone tissue engineering scaffolds have obvious advantages in the research and clinical treatment of bone defect repair.As one of the important raw materials for 3D printed bone scaffolds,poly-L-lactic acid has a great potential for application in performing bone defect repair,but clinical patients with different bone defect causative factors have different requirements for the comprehensive performance of poly-L-lactic acid bone scaffolds.OBJECTIVE:To summarize and review the development of 3D printing technology and poly-L-lactic acid scaffolds and the design strategies chosen for scaffolds for bone repair in the setting of bone diseases such as osteomyelitis,bone tumor,osteonecrosis,and osteoporosis.METHODS:Literature from CNKI,WanFang,PubMed,Science Direct,and Web of Science databases were searched and screened from 1994 to 2024.Search terms were"3D printing,polylactic acid,bone tissue engineering scaffold,osteomyelitis,bone tumor,osteonecrosis,osteoporosis,bone defect"in Chinese and English.The screened 62 articles were systematically summarized and analyzed.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)Poly-L-lactic acid is considered to be an ideal raw material for artificial bone scaffold design due to its non-toxicity,processability,biocompatibility,and ability to self-degrade in the human environment.The application of 3D printing technology has enabled poly-L-lactic acid bone scaffolds to meet the multilayered and porous structural design requirements of biomimetic artificial bone repair materials,and to optimize the mechanical properties for better bone repair.(2)According to different bone disease microenvironments,timely adjustment of the functional design of poly-L-lactic acid scaffolds is important for the comprehensive osteogenic efficacy of the scaffolds.The article discusses the application of poly-L-lactic acid scaffolds in bone disease environments such as osteomyelitis,bone tumor,osteonecrosis,and osteoporosis,and highlights the importance of rationally grasping the timing of bone disease treatment and bone tissue regeneration for bone defects caused by different bone diseases.(3)Although poly-L-lactic acid scaffolds show potential in bone repair,there are still some problems,such as the need to further optimize the structural design of the scaffolds to fit new bone regeneration,enhance the bioactivity of the scaffolds,and take into account other functions(e.g.,antimicrobial,anti-tumor,and anti-osteoporosis)in order to adapt to the needs of bone tissue repair in different pathological environments.
4.Clinical Efficacy of Janus Kinase Inhibitors in Combination with Chinese Herbal Medicine for Rheumatoid Arthritis:A Retrospective Study and A Meta-analysis
Chenguang ZHAN ; Shengqin YANG ; Xin LI ; Yu WEN ; Peng ZHANG ; Xingrui YAN ; Haifang DU ; Maojie WANG ; Xiaodong WU ; Liyan MEI ; Xiumin CHEN ; Yanlin LI ; Runyue HUANG
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2026;67(5):534-543
ObjectiveTo evaluate the efficacy and safety of Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitors combined with Chinese herbal medicine (CHM) in treating rheumatoid arthritis (RA). MethodsClinical data from 169 RA patients were retrospectively collected. Among them, 71 cases received JAK inhibitors as the control group, while 98 cases received JAK inhibitors plus CHM as the observation group, both treated for 24 weeks. The rheumatoid factor (RF), cyclic citic peptide antibody (anti-CCP), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C-reactive protein (CRP), and white blood cell count (WBC) were recorded before and after treatment. Databases including CNKI, Wanfang, VIP, PubMed and Web of Science were searched from inception till August 31st, 2025 for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on the combined use of JAK inhibitors and CHM for RA. The methodological quality of the included studies was evaluated using the risk of bias assessment tool. Meta-analyses were performed for RF, anti-CCP, ESR, CRP, 28-joint disease activity score (DAS28), overall clinical effective rate, and incidence of adverse events. Sensitivity analysis were also performed. ResultsThe retrospective study demonstrated that after treatment, ESR, CRP, and anti-CCP levels decreased in the observation group, while ESR and CRP levels decreased in the control group (P<0.05). Moreover, ESR and RF levels in the observation group were lower than those in the control group (P<0.05). A total of 9 RCTs involving 770 patients were included in the meta-analysis. The results indicated that the JAK inhibitors plus CHM group was superior to the JAK inhibitors group in reducing RF (MD=-8.97, 95%CI -15.01 to -2.94, P=0.004), CRP (MD=-3.34, 95%CI -3.82 to -2.86, P<0.001), ESR (MD=-5.33, 95%CI -7.98 to -2.69, P<0.001), and DAS28 score (MD=-0.54, 95%CI -0.74 to -0.34, P<0.001), as well as in improving the overall clinical effective rate (OR=4.53, 95%CI 2.55 to 8.03, P<0.001). No statistically significant differences were observed between groups in anti-CCP levels (SMD=-2.08, 95%CI -4.41 to 0.24, P=0.080) or incidence of adverse events (OR=0.93, 95%CI 0.55 to 1.57, P=0.790). ConclusionThe combination of JAK inhibitors and CHM demonstrates remarkable efficacy in treating RA, contributing to improved disease activity and reduced inflammatory markers with a favorable safety profile.
5.Effect of Acupuncture at Neiguan (PC6) on Improving Autism by Promoting Myelination Through The METTL14/m⁶A/PTEN Axis Based on “Xuanfu-Suiqiao” Theory
Wei-Li DANG ; Lü-Yuan LIANG ; Yu-Xin LI ; Zhi-Yao LI ; Sai-Dan LIU ; Jia-Lei CAO ; Rong-Ze MA ; Yun-Kai WANG ; Xiao-Qing YANG ; Bing-Qi WEI ; Bing-Xiang MA
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(5):1165-1177
ObjectiveTo clarify whether METTL14 mediates the core role of acupuncture at Neiguan (PC6) in promoting myelination and improving behavior in young autistic rats through gene intervention technology. MethodsThe ASD model was established by intraperitoneal injection of valproic acid (VPA) in pregnant rats. Male offspring were intracerebroventricularly injected with adenovirus-packaged METTL14 shRNA (sh-METTL14) or its control (sh-NC) on postnatal day 1, with a model group set as well. Subsequently, the juvenile rats were divided into model group, acupuncture group, acupuncture+sh-NC group, and acupuncture+sh-METTL14 group. The acupuncture group received acupuncture at Neiguan (PC6) from postnatal day 7, once daily for 21 consecutive days. Neurobehavioral changes were evaluated by behavioral tests; METTL14 knockdown efficiency and the expression of METTL14, METTL3, and PTEN were detected by quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) and Western blot (WB); PTEN m6A levels were measured by RNA immunoprecipitation-qPCR (RIP-qPCR); myelin ultrastructure, expression of myelin basic protein (MBP) and neurofascin 155 (NF155), and dendritic spine density were observed using transmission electron microscopy (TEM), enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), immunofluorescence, qRT-PCR, and primary neuron culture. ResultsBehaviorally, knockdown of METTL14 significantly counteracted the beneficial effects of acupuncture in improving self-grooming, open field exploration, three-chamber social interaction, and Morris water maze learning and memory (P<0.05, P<0.01). Compared with the acupuncture+sh-NC group, the acupuncture+sh-METTL14 group showed significantly decreased mRNA and protein expression of hippocampal METTL14 (P<0.01), and the upregulating effects of acupuncture on METTL3 and PTEN expression were reversed (P<0.01). Meanwhile, knockdown of METTL14 significantly inhibited the acupuncture-induced increase in PTEN m6A levels (P<0.01). Morphologically, knockdown of METTL14 attenuated the improvement of myelin structure by acupuncture, reversed the downregulation of MBP and upregulation of NF155 induced by acupuncture, and blocked the increase in dendritic spine density (P<0.05, P<0.01). ConclusionMETTL14 is a key molecule mediating the therapeutic effect of acupuncture at Neiguan. Acupuncture at Neiguan upregulates METTL14, thereby enhancing m6A methylation modification of PTEN mRNA to stabilize its expression, ultimately promoting myelin development and improving behavioral symptoms in ASD juvenile rats. This preliminarily reveals the modern biological connotation of “opening Xuanfu and dredging myelin”.
6.Effect of Acupuncture at Neiguan (PC6) on Improving Autism by Promoting Myelination Through The METTL14/m⁶A/PTEN Axis Based on “Xuanfu-Suiqiao” Theory
Wei-Li DANG ; Lü-Yuan LIANG ; Yu-Xin LI ; Zhi-Yao LI ; Sai-Dan LIU ; Jia-Lei CAO ; Rong-Ze MA ; Yun-Kai WANG ; Xiao-Qing YANG ; Bing-Qi WEI ; Bing-Xiang MA
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(5):1165-1177
ObjectiveTo clarify whether METTL14 mediates the core role of acupuncture at Neiguan (PC6) in promoting myelination and improving behavior in young autistic rats through gene intervention technology. MethodsThe ASD model was established by intraperitoneal injection of valproic acid (VPA) in pregnant rats. Male offspring were intracerebroventricularly injected with adenovirus-packaged METTL14 shRNA (sh-METTL14) or its control (sh-NC) on postnatal day 1, with a model group set as well. Subsequently, the juvenile rats were divided into model group, acupuncture group, acupuncture+sh-NC group, and acupuncture+sh-METTL14 group. The acupuncture group received acupuncture at Neiguan (PC6) from postnatal day 7, once daily for 21 consecutive days. Neurobehavioral changes were evaluated by behavioral tests; METTL14 knockdown efficiency and the expression of METTL14, METTL3, and PTEN were detected by quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) and Western blot (WB); PTEN m6A levels were measured by RNA immunoprecipitation-qPCR (RIP-qPCR); myelin ultrastructure, expression of myelin basic protein (MBP) and neurofascin 155 (NF155), and dendritic spine density were observed using transmission electron microscopy (TEM), enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), immunofluorescence, qRT-PCR, and primary neuron culture. ResultsBehaviorally, knockdown of METTL14 significantly counteracted the beneficial effects of acupuncture in improving self-grooming, open field exploration, three-chamber social interaction, and Morris water maze learning and memory (P<0.05, P<0.01). Compared with the acupuncture+sh-NC group, the acupuncture+sh-METTL14 group showed significantly decreased mRNA and protein expression of hippocampal METTL14 (P<0.01), and the upregulating effects of acupuncture on METTL3 and PTEN expression were reversed (P<0.01). Meanwhile, knockdown of METTL14 significantly inhibited the acupuncture-induced increase in PTEN m6A levels (P<0.01). Morphologically, knockdown of METTL14 attenuated the improvement of myelin structure by acupuncture, reversed the downregulation of MBP and upregulation of NF155 induced by acupuncture, and blocked the increase in dendritic spine density (P<0.05, P<0.01). ConclusionMETTL14 is a key molecule mediating the therapeutic effect of acupuncture at Neiguan. Acupuncture at Neiguan upregulates METTL14, thereby enhancing m6A methylation modification of PTEN mRNA to stabilize its expression, ultimately promoting myelin development and improving behavioral symptoms in ASD juvenile rats. This preliminarily reveals the modern biological connotation of “opening Xuanfu and dredging myelin”.
7.Quercetin Ameliorates Gouty Arthritis in Rats via ROS/NLRP3/IL-1β Signaling Pathway
Baowei FENG ; Yan WANG ; Chang LI ; Yujing ZHANG ; Dingxing FAN ; Xin LI
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(2):145-153
ObjectiveTo investigate the effect of quercetin on acute gouty arthritis (GA) in rats by inhibiting the reactive oxygen species (ROS)/NOD-like receptor protein 3 (NLRP3)/interleukin-1β (IL-1β) signaling pathway. MethodsSixty SPF-grade male SD rats were randomized into normal, model, colchicine (0.3 mg·kg-1), and low-, medium-, and high-dose (25, 50, 100 mg·kg-1, respectively) quercetin groups (n=10). The rats in the dosing groups were administrated with the corresponding drugs (10 mL·kg-1) by gavage once a day for one week. An equal volume of normal saline was given by gavage to rats in normal and model groups. One hour after drug administration on day 5, an acute GA model was established in other groups except the control group via intra-articular injection of monosodium urate (MSU) suspension into the right posterior ankle joint cavity. The joint swelling and gait were scored at the time points of 6, 12, 24, 48 h after modeling. Histopathological alterations in the ankle joint tissue from each group were assessed by hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining. Malondialdehyde (MDA), xanthine oxidase (XOD), and total superoxide dismutase (T-SOD) assay kits were used to assess the levels of MDA, XOD, and T-SOD in the serum. The levels of tumor interleukin-6 (IL-6), necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), and IL-1β in the rat serum, as well as ROS in the ankle joint tissue, were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Western blot was performed to determine the protein levels of NLRP3, thioredoxin-interacting protein (TXNIP), apoptosis-associated speck-like protein containing a CARD domain (ASC), precursor cysteinyl aspartate-specific proteinase-1 (pro-Caspase-1), cleaved Caspase-1 (Caspase-1 p20), and IL-1β in the ankle joint tissue. Real-time PCR was employed to assess the mRNA levels of TXNIP, NLRP3, ASC, IL-1β, and TNF-α in the ankle joint tissue. ResultsCompared with the normal group, the model group exhibited decreased spontaneous activity, mental fatigue, increased ankle joint swelling and gait scores (P<0.01), aggravated synovial tissue edema and inflammatory cell infiltration (P<0.01), elevated levels of XOD, MDA, TNF-α, IL-1β, and IL-6 in the serum and ROS in the joint tissue (P<0.01), a declined level of T-SOD (P<0.01), up-regulated protein levels of NLRP3, TXNIP, ASC, pro-Caspase-1, Caspase-1 p20, and IL-1β in the ankle joint tissue (P<0.01), and up-regulated mRNA levels of NLRP3, TXNIP, ASC, IL-1β, and TNF-α in the ankle joint tissue (P<0.01). Compared with the model group, the medium- and high-dose quercetin groups showed improved general conditions, decreased gait scores (P<0.05, P<0.01), reduced joint swelling (P<0.01), alleviated synovial tissue edema and inflammatory cell infiltration (P<0.05, P<0.01), lowered levels of XOD, MDA, TNF-α, IL-1β, and IL-6 in the serum and ROS in the joint tissue (P<0.01), increased levels of T-SOD (P<0.01), down-regulated protein levels of TXNIP, NLRP3, ASC, pro-Caspase-1, Caspase-1 p20, and IL-1β in the ankle joint tissue (P<0.05, P<0.01), and down-regulated mRNA levels of TXNIP, NLRP3, ASC, IL-1β, and TNF-α in the ankle joint tissue (P<0.01). Low-dose quercetin also ameliorated some of the above parameters (P<0.05, P<0.01). ConclusionQuercetin exerts anti-GA effects by blocking the ROS/NLRP3/IL-1β signaling pathway, downregulating NLRP3 inflammasome activation, and inhibiting the production of pro-inflammatory cytokines including TNF-α, IL-1β, and IL-6.
8.Molecular Mechanism of Programmed Cell Death in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Traditional Chinese Medicine Intervention: A Review
Xin PENG ; Yunhui LI ; Lei LIANG ; Zheyu LUAN ; Hanxiao WANG ; Haotian XU ; Ziming DANG ; Jihong FENG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(3):304-313
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a chronic respiratory disease that poses a significant threat to global health, exhibiting high morbidity, disability and mortality rate, with its prevention and treatment situation becoming increasingly critical. The pathogenesis of COPD is complex, and the underlying cellular and molecular biological mechanisms remain incompletely elucidated. Programmed cell death (PCD) is the process wherein cells actively undergo demise to maintain internal environmental stability in response to certain signals or specific stimuli. Contemporary medical research indicates that the dysregulation of PCD patterns such as apoptosis, necroptosis, pyroptosis, autophagy, and ferroptosis is closely related to the onset and progression of COPD. Clarifying the molecular mechanisms of PCD in COPD may provide novel perspectives for in-depth understanding and prevention of the disease. Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) is characterized by holistic regulation. In recent years, extensive research has been conducted in the TCM field focusing on modulating apoptosis, necroptosis, pyroptosis, autophagy, and ferroptosis for the treatment of COPD, yielding remarkable achievements. Therefore, this study systematically explored the molecular mechanism of PCD in COPD and reviewed the potential mechanisms and intervention status of TCM targeting PCD in COPD, aiming to provide insights and references for the clinical prevention, treatment and in-depth research of COPD.
9.Molecular Mechanism of Programmed Cell Death in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Traditional Chinese Medicine Intervention: A Review
Xin PENG ; Yunhui LI ; Lei LIANG ; Zheyu LUAN ; Hanxiao WANG ; Haotian XU ; Ziming DANG ; Jihong FENG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(3):304-313
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a chronic respiratory disease that poses a significant threat to global health, exhibiting high morbidity, disability and mortality rate, with its prevention and treatment situation becoming increasingly critical. The pathogenesis of COPD is complex, and the underlying cellular and molecular biological mechanisms remain incompletely elucidated. Programmed cell death (PCD) is the process wherein cells actively undergo demise to maintain internal environmental stability in response to certain signals or specific stimuli. Contemporary medical research indicates that the dysregulation of PCD patterns such as apoptosis, necroptosis, pyroptosis, autophagy, and ferroptosis is closely related to the onset and progression of COPD. Clarifying the molecular mechanisms of PCD in COPD may provide novel perspectives for in-depth understanding and prevention of the disease. Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) is characterized by holistic regulation. In recent years, extensive research has been conducted in the TCM field focusing on modulating apoptosis, necroptosis, pyroptosis, autophagy, and ferroptosis for the treatment of COPD, yielding remarkable achievements. Therefore, this study systematically explored the molecular mechanism of PCD in COPD and reviewed the potential mechanisms and intervention status of TCM targeting PCD in COPD, aiming to provide insights and references for the clinical prevention, treatment and in-depth research of COPD.
10.Multicenter machine learning-based construction of a model for predicting potential organ donors and validation with decision curve analysis
Xu WANG ; Wenxiu LI ; Fenghua WANG ; Shuli WU ; Dong JIA ; Xin GE ; Zhihua SHAN ; Tongzuo LI
Organ Transplantation 2026;17(1):106-115
Objective To evaluate the predictive value of different machine learning models constructed in a multicenter environment for potential organ donors and verify their clinical application feasibility. Methods The study included 2 000 inpatients admitted to five domestic tertiary hospitals from January 2020 to December 2023, who met the criteria for potential organ donation assessment. They were randomly divided into a training set and an internal validation set (7∶3). Another 300 similar patients admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University from January 2024 to April 2025 were included as an external validation set. The area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and F1-score of three models were compared, and the consistency of the potential organ donor determination process was tested. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictive factors of potential organ donors. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was employed to verify the resource efficiency of each model, and the threshold interval and intervention balance point were assessed. Results Apart from age, there were no significant differences in other basic characteristics among the centers (all P>0.05). The consistency of the potential organ donor determination process among researchers in each center was good [all 95% confidence interval (CI) lower limits >0]. In the internal validation set, the XGBoost model had the best predictive performance (AUC=0.92, 95% CI 0.89-0.94) and the best calibration (P=0.441, Brier score 0.099). In the external validation set, the XGBoost model also had the best predictive performance (AUC=0.91, 95% CI 0.88-0.94), outperforming logistic regression and random forest models. Multivariate logistic regression showed that mechanical ventilation had the greatest impact (odds ratio=2.06, 95% CI 1.54-2.76, P<0.001). DCA indicated that the XGBoost model had the highest net benefit in the threshold interval of 0.2-0.6. The “treat all” strategy only had a slight advantage at extremely low thresholds. The recommended threshold interval, which balances intervention costs and clinical benefits, considers ≥50% positive predictive value (PPV) and ≤50 referrals per 100 high-risk patients. Conclusions The XGBoost model established in a multicenter environment is accurate and well-calibrated in predicting potential organ donors. Combined with DCA, it may effectively guide the timing of clinical interventions and resource allocation, providing new ideas for the assessment and management of organ donation after brain death.

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