1.Establishment and validation of a model for femoral head necrosis after internal fixation of femoral neck fracture using logistic regression and SHAP analysis
Long LIAO ; Zepeng ZHAO ; Zongyuan LI ; Qinglong YU ; Tao ZHANG ; Jinyuan TANG ; Nan YE ; Han XU ; Bo SHI
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(3):626-633
BACKGROUND:The most common complication of traumatic femoral neck fractures after internal fixation is femoral head necrosis.Currently,many studies have reported on the risk factors that affect the occurrence and development of postoperative femoral head necrosis,but there is still a lack of tools to predict the risk of femoral head necrosis after internal fixation of femoral neck fractures.OBJECTIVE:To develop a predictive model that estimates the risk of femoral head necrosis shortly after patients with femoral neck fractures receive cannulated screw internal fixation.METHODS:A retrospective analysis reviewed clinical records of 172 patients who underwent cannulated screw internal fixation for femoral neck fractures at Department of Orthopedics of Mianyang Central Hospital from January 2013 to June 2023.Patients were categorized into two groups based on the presence or absence of femoral head necrosis within one year post-operation:the necrosis group and the non-necrosis group.Univariate analysis,Lasso regression,and multivariate Logistic regression techniques were employed to identify the determinants of femoral head necrosis.A nomogram prediction model was constructed using R language's"rms"package,version 4.0.The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the discriminatory ability of the model.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to evaluate the goodness of fit of the model,and the decision curve analysis was used to determine its clinical application benefits.Internal validation of the study was conducted using the Bootstrap method,involving 1 000 repeated samplings.To delve deeper into the primary factors influencing femoral head necrosis post-internal fixation of the femoral neck,this paper employed the SHAP method for data set analysis.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)The risk factors leading to femoral head necrosis in the short term after cannulated screw fixation of femoral neck fractures include:smoking,diabetes,Garden classification,fracture line location,reduction quality,age,and operation time.(2)The prediction model demonstrated robust performance,evidenced by an area under the curve of 0.940(95%Confidence Interval:0.903 to 0.977),indicating a high level of prediction accuracy.The model achieved a sensitivity of 90.2%and a specificity of 87.6%,indicating that its diagnostic performance was stable.The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test yielded a chi-square value of 6.593 with a P-value of 0.581,confirming that the model's predictions closely align with the observed outcomes.(3)The calibration curve of the model also performed well,and its overall trend was very close to the ideal curve,further proving the high accuracy of the model.(4)The internal validation was carried out by the Bootstrap method with 1 000 repeated samplings,and the area under the curve of the model internal validation was still as high as 0.939,proving that the model had good stability.(5)Through the decision curve,it is found that within the probability threshold range of 1%to 92%,the model can obtain the maximum net benefit value.(6)The SHAP analysis results show that among the risk factors analyzed in this study,the location of the fracture line serves as the most significant predictor of femoral head necrosis following internal fixation with cannulated screws in femoral neck fractures,and subcapital fractures are extremely prone to femoral head necrosis after surgery.(7)It is concluded that the validated prediction model demonstrates strong discriminative power and reliability,offering practical clinical utility.It serves as a useful reference tool for short-term risk assessment of femoral head necrosis following internal fixation of femoral neck fractures.
2.Establishment and validation of a model for femoral head necrosis after internal fixation of femoral neck fracture using logistic regression and SHAP analysis
Long LIAO ; Zepeng ZHAO ; Zongyuan LI ; Qinglong YU ; Tao ZHANG ; Jinyuan TANG ; Nan YE ; Han XU ; Bo SHI
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(3):626-633
BACKGROUND:The most common complication of traumatic femoral neck fractures after internal fixation is femoral head necrosis.Currently,many studies have reported on the risk factors that affect the occurrence and development of postoperative femoral head necrosis,but there is still a lack of tools to predict the risk of femoral head necrosis after internal fixation of femoral neck fractures.OBJECTIVE:To develop a predictive model that estimates the risk of femoral head necrosis shortly after patients with femoral neck fractures receive cannulated screw internal fixation.METHODS:A retrospective analysis reviewed clinical records of 172 patients who underwent cannulated screw internal fixation for femoral neck fractures at Department of Orthopedics of Mianyang Central Hospital from January 2013 to June 2023.Patients were categorized into two groups based on the presence or absence of femoral head necrosis within one year post-operation:the necrosis group and the non-necrosis group.Univariate analysis,Lasso regression,and multivariate Logistic regression techniques were employed to identify the determinants of femoral head necrosis.A nomogram prediction model was constructed using R language's"rms"package,version 4.0.The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the discriminatory ability of the model.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to evaluate the goodness of fit of the model,and the decision curve analysis was used to determine its clinical application benefits.Internal validation of the study was conducted using the Bootstrap method,involving 1 000 repeated samplings.To delve deeper into the primary factors influencing femoral head necrosis post-internal fixation of the femoral neck,this paper employed the SHAP method for data set analysis.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)The risk factors leading to femoral head necrosis in the short term after cannulated screw fixation of femoral neck fractures include:smoking,diabetes,Garden classification,fracture line location,reduction quality,age,and operation time.(2)The prediction model demonstrated robust performance,evidenced by an area under the curve of 0.940(95%Confidence Interval:0.903 to 0.977),indicating a high level of prediction accuracy.The model achieved a sensitivity of 90.2%and a specificity of 87.6%,indicating that its diagnostic performance was stable.The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test yielded a chi-square value of 6.593 with a P-value of 0.581,confirming that the model's predictions closely align with the observed outcomes.(3)The calibration curve of the model also performed well,and its overall trend was very close to the ideal curve,further proving the high accuracy of the model.(4)The internal validation was carried out by the Bootstrap method with 1 000 repeated samplings,and the area under the curve of the model internal validation was still as high as 0.939,proving that the model had good stability.(5)Through the decision curve,it is found that within the probability threshold range of 1%to 92%,the model can obtain the maximum net benefit value.(6)The SHAP analysis results show that among the risk factors analyzed in this study,the location of the fracture line serves as the most significant predictor of femoral head necrosis following internal fixation with cannulated screws in femoral neck fractures,and subcapital fractures are extremely prone to femoral head necrosis after surgery.(7)It is concluded that the validated prediction model demonstrates strong discriminative power and reliability,offering practical clinical utility.It serves as a useful reference tool for short-term risk assessment of femoral head necrosis following internal fixation of femoral neck fractures.
3.Predictive model for severe adverse reaction associated with bevacizumab based on the global trigger tool and machine learning
Yongfei FU ; Xin LONG ; Hongzhen XU ; Jian TANG ; Xiangqing LI ; Yucheng LONG ; Dong QIN
China Pharmacy 2026;37(4):497-503
OBJECTIVE To confirm trigger items for adverse drug reaction (ADR) induced by bevacizumab, to identify and analyze the occurrence of related ADR, and to establish a predictive model for severe adverse reaction (SAR) caused by this drug. METHODS Based on the global trigger tool (GTT) theory, and referencing the GTT White Paper, drug package inserts and relevant literature, trigger items for bevacizumab-related ADR were confirmed using a single-round Delphi method. Utilizing these established items, electronic medical records of relevant patients at Guilin People’s Hospital from January 2020 to September 2024 were actively screened via the China Hospital Pharmacovigilance System. Pharmacists then identified and tallied the occurrence of bevacizumab-induced ADR. Data from patients with any positive trigger item served as the study subjects (divided into training and test sets at a ratio of 7∶3), candidate feature variables were selected from 39 related variables using the Boruta algorithm, and the multivariable Logistic regression analysis was performed with the occurrence of SAR as the dependent variable. Based on these candidate features, Logistic Regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Light Gradient Boosting Machine, Random Forest, and Categorical Boosting models were constructed. Model performance was evaluated using metrics including the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic curve and recall rate. The Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was applied to analyze and interpret the contribution of each variable. A nomogram was constructed based on the optimal model. RESULTS A total of 38 trigger items for active monitoring of bevacizumab-related ADR were determined, comprising 17 laboratory indicators, 13 clinical manifestations, and 8 intervention measures. In total, 483 patients with positive trigger items were included, and 318 patients with bevacizumab-induced ADR were identified, including 83 SARs. The positive predictive values for the trigger items and cases were 43.57% (708/1 625) and 63.84% (318/483), respectively. Bevacizumab-induced ADR involved 7 systems/organs, with the hematological system being the most frequently involved (64.15%). The Boruta algorithm selected 7 vari ables: serum potassium, hematocrit, albumin-to-globulin ratio, prealbumin, hypertension history, age and red blood cell count. Multivariable Logistic regression showed that elevated serum potassium levels were associated with a decreased risk of bevacizumab-induced SAR (OR=0.234, P =0.002), while a history of hypertension (OR=2.642, P =0.006) and increased age (OR=1.040, P =0.025) were associated with an increased risk. The Logistic Regression model demonstrated superior performance with higher AUC, F1 score and recall rate (0.761, 0.447, 0.607), compared to other models. SHAP evaluation results indicated that variables such as serum potassium, hematocrit, and age ranked highest in importance. CONCLUSIONS Totally 38 trigger entries have been successfully identified for active screening of bevacizumab-related ADR. Elevated serum potassium levels are a protective factor against bevacizumab-induced SAR, whereas the hypertension history and increased age are risk factors. The Logistic Regression model is the optimal predictive model.
4.Research progress on strategies for toxicity reduction and efficacy enhancement of triptolide
Xiaoqing ZHENG ; Ying DING ; Shanshan XU ; Long WANG ; Shanshan HAN ; Yaping XING ; Meng ZHANG ; Wenhao LI
China Pharmacy 2026;37(11):1496-1501
Triptolide (TP), the core active component of the traditional Chinese medicine Tripterygium wilfordii , exhibits remarkable pharmacological activities including anti-inflammatory, immunosuppressive and anti-tumor effects, and holds broad application prospects in the treatment of major diseases such as autoimmune diseases and malignant tumors. However, TP has a narrow therapeutic window and causes multi-organ toxicities including liver, kidney and reproductive toxicities, which severely restrict its safe clinical application and new drug development. Therefore, toxicity reduction and efficacy enhancement has become a core scientific problem urgently to be solved in this field. This paper systematically reviews the four core strategies for TP toxicity reduction and efficacy enhancement, including structural modification, dosage form improvement, herbal compatibility, and external therapies of traditional Chinese medicine. Among them, structural modification optimizes the toxic and efficacy characteristics of TP from the molecular structure level, with typica l derivatives including (5 R )-5-hydroxy triptolide, ZT01, PG490-88, etc. Dosage form modification achieves toxicity reduction and efficacy enhancement via targeted and sustained-controlled drug release of diverse delivery systems. It includes triptolide preparations such as nanoparticles, liposomes, microemulsion gels and liquid crystals, possessing favorable clinical transformation potential. The herbal compatibility and external therapies of traditional Chinese medicine conform to the holistic view of traditional Chinese medicine and have a profound clinical application foundation, but their mechanisms of action are insufficiently elucidated, and they lack unified standardized specifications and high-quality evidence-based proof. In the future, we should rely on multi-omics technology to elucidate the toxic and efficacy mechanisms, integrate technologies to optimize preparations, improve the evaluation system and promote clinical transformation.
5.Investigation of an outbreak of group A human G9P [8] rotavirus infectious diarrhea among adults in Chongqing
Yang WANG ; Yuan KONG ; Ning CHEN ; Lundi YANG ; Jiang LONG ; Qin LI ; Xiaoyang XU ; Wei ZHENG ; Hong WEI ; Jie LU ; Quanjie XIAO ; Yingying BA ; Wenxi WU ; Qian XU ; Ju YAN
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(8):663-668
ObjectiveTo investigate and analyze an outbreak of rotavirus infectious diarrhea in a prison in Chongqing Municipality, to provide a basis for adult rotavirus surveillance and prevention, and to explore the public health problems in special settings. MethodsA retrospective survey was conducted to collect and analyze data on individual cases with diarrheal disease on-site. The clinical characteristics, as well as the temporal, spatial and geographical distribution patterns of the epidemic were described. Multi-pathogen detection tests were conducted both on diarrhea cases and environmental samples, with viral genotyping performed on positive samples. A case-control analysis was performed to identify the causes of the outbreak, and an SEIR model was adopted to predict the outbreak trend and evaluate the effectiveness of interventions. ResultsA total of 65 cases were found among the inmates, with an attack rate of 2.03%. The predominant clinical manifestations included diarrhea (89.23%), watery stool (73.85%), and dehydration (18.46%). The epidemic curve indicated a “human-to-human” transmission pattern, with an average incubation period of 5‒6 days. The attack rates among chefs in the main canteen (80.00%, 8/10) and caterers (28.33%, 17/60) were significantly higher than those of other inmates (P<0.05). Multi-pathogen polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing detected positive for group A rotavirus, with the viral genotyping identified as G9P [8] strain. Factors such as unprotected "bare-handed" food distribution among cases with diarrhea (OR=9.512, 95%CI: 4.261‒21.234) and close contact with diarrhea cases (OR=3.656, 95%CI: 1.719‒7.778) were the possible cause of the outbreak. The SEIR model (r0=5, α=0.3, β1=0.08, β2=0.04) was constructed using prison inmates as susceptible population, aiming at fitting the initial transmission trend of the outbreak, and the epidemic rate declined rapidly after intervention measures were implemented (rt≈0). ConclusionThis rare rotavirus infection diarrhea outbreak among adults in confined settings suggests that the construction of public health prevention and control systems in prison may be overlooked. Cross infection during meal processing and distribution in the canteens of such settings is likely to be the cause of the outbreak. Given the potential neglect of public heath system construction in special settings, it is imperative to enhance the surveillance and monitoring of rotavirus and other intestinal multi-pathogens among adults, as well as the construction of public health prevention and control systems in these special settings.
6.Introduction to Implementation Science Theories, Models, and Frameworks
Lixin SUN ; Enying GONG ; Yishu LIU ; Dan WU ; Chunyuan LI ; Shiyu LU ; Maoyi TIAN ; Qian LONG ; Dong XU ; Lijing YAN
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2025;16(5):1332-1343
Implementation Science is an interdisciplinary field dedicated to systematically studying how to effectively translate evidence-based research findings into practical application and implementation. In the health-related context, it focuses on enhancing the efficiency and quality of healthcare services, thereby facilitating the transition from scientific evidence to real-world practice. This article elaborates on Theories, Models, and Frameworks (TMF) within health-related Implementation Science, clarifying their basic concepts and classifications, and discussing their roles in guiding implementation processes. Furthermore, it reviews and prospects current research from three aspects: the constituent elements of TMF, their practical applications, and future directions. Five representative frameworks are emphasized, including the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR), the Practical Robust Implementation and Sustainability Model (PRISM), the Exploration, Preparation, Implementation, Sustainment (EPIS)framework, the Behavior Change Wheel (BCW), and the Normalization Process Theory (NPT). Additionally, resources such as the Dissemination & Implementation Models Webtool and the T-CaST tool are introduced to assist researchers in selecting appropriate TMFs based on project-specific needs.
7.Exploring the high-quality development of talent teams in Hainan Province's disease control organizations
LI Yu ; TAN Long ; XU Ke ; LIN Yingzi
China Tropical Medicine 2025;25(2):248-
Objective To analyze and study the status quo and deficiencies in the construction of talent teams at all levels of CDCs in Hainan Province and put forward countermeasures to provide a reference basis for the high-quality development of talent team construction in all levels of CDCs in Hainan Province. Methods Using field surveys and data retrieval, spatial analysis was employed to compare the overall differences in human resource status of the provincial-level CDC and CDCs in five regional areas (East, West, South, North, and Central Hainan). The coordination between human resource allocation and development strategies was analyzed. A descriptive analysis mainly utilized CDC survey questionnaires and other research forms to explore the health human resources of the province's CDCs. Results The professional and technical personnel in the provincial CDCs comprise 1 431 individuals, accounting for 82.3% (1 431/1 739) of the total number of actual employees, which falls short of the Central Institutional Reform Commission's (CIRC) mandate that technical professionals comprise at least 85% of the total workforce (CIRC Document [2014] No. 2). Among Hainan's CDC personnel, 115 individuals are recognized as high-level talents within the Hainan Free Trade Port framework. These include one Class C talent, 22 Class D talents, and 93 Class E talents. Class A, B, and C-level talents are deficient. The majority of staff at both the provincial and regional CDCs hold bachelor's degrees. There is a significant proportion of staff with associate degrees or lower qualifications, coupled with a severe shortage of highly educated personnel. Postgraduates with master’s degrees or above account for 27.8% (65/233) in the provincial CDC, indicating low educational credentials among personnel in Hainan's CDCs. The central region, characterized by slower economic and social development, faces greater challenges in attracting and retaining high-level talent. There is a scarcity of public health professionals with interdisciplinary expertise. Some public health staff lack clinical knowledge, experience, and skills in disease treatment. Furthermore, there is a need to strengthen on-site emergency response capabilities for public health emergencies. The structural ratio of senior, intermediate, and junior professional and technical positions in the provincial CDC is 40%∶45%∶15%. The position settings are limited to ranking levels without distinction by professional category, leading to a bottleneck-type competition like crossing the "one log bridge" for technical position promotions. Conclusion Hainan Province faces significant challenges in developing its public health workforce, both in technical expertise and management capacity. Especially under the context of the closure operation of the Hainan Free Trade Port, it is necessary to continuously strengthen top-level talent design to cultivate a favorable policy, system, and cultural environment, thereby promoting the sustained and healthy development of the province's public health career.
8.Analysis of risk factors for high-risk colorectal adenoma:focusing on non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and multiple metabolic abnormalities
Long-yun WU ; Xiao-ling LI ; Zhi-yi HAN ; Qiao-yun XIA ; Jing-yuan XU ; Pei-ying TIAN ; Xiao-lan LU
Fudan University Journal of Medical Sciences 2025;52(2):216-224
Objective To retrospectively analyze the association between metabolic factors and high-risk colorectal adenoma(CRA).Methods The medical records of patients aged 18-75 years who underwent their initial colonoscopy at Karamay Central Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from Jul 2000 to Mar 2017 were collected.The comparison between normal colonoscopy(NC)and high-risk CRA patients was conducted using an unpaired t-test,while chi-square test was used for categorical variables.Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)regression and Logistic regression were utilized to analyze the association between metabolic factors and high-risk CRA.Results A total of 1 798 patients meeting the inclusion and exclusion criteria were enrolled and divided into normal colonoscopy(NC)findings group(n=972)and high-risk CRA group(n=826).The high-risk CRA group exhibited significantly lower levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol(HDL-C)in comparison to the NC group,while uric acid and fibrosis 4(FIB-4)index levels were significantly higher than those observed in the NC group(all P<0.05).Based on LASSO regression analysis,we identified 12 variables that potentially influence the occurrence of high-risk CRA,including age,gender,smoking history,alcohol consumption history,non-alcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD),hypertension,coronary artery disease,hyperglycemia,hypercholesterolemia,low levels of HDL-C,elevated alanine aminotransferase,and elevated gamma-glutamyl transferase.Multivariate analysis revealed that individuals aged over 50 years,male gender,cigarette and alcohol consumption,low HDL-C levels,history of NAFLD and hypertension were identified as independent risk factors associated with high-risk CRA(P<0.05).In addition,without or with adjusting for age,sex,smoking,and drinking history,patients with a high TG/HDL-C ratio(the ratio≥2.68)had a significantly higher risk of high-risk CRA than those with a low TG/HDL-C ratio(the ratio<2.68)[odds ratios(ORs)were1.430 and 1.235 respectively,all P<0.05)].Without or with adjusting variables,the ORs for NAFLD patients with FIB-4 index>2.67 were 1.849(P=0.466)and 1.435(P=0.707),respectively.Conclusion A significant association exists between metabolic factors and high-risk CRA.Independent risk factors for high-risk CRA include older age(≥50 years),male,smoking history,alcohol consumption history,low levels of HDL-C,and a history of NAFLD and hypertension.Individuals exhibiting a TG/HDL-C ratio exceeding 2.68 manifest a significantly heightened susceptibility to the development of high-risk CRA.Therefore,elderly males with one or more aforementioned metabolic abnormalities should be considered a priority population for colorectal screening.
9.Multiple biomarker analysis for influence of gram-negative bacterial infection on prognosis of heart failure patients with reduced ejection fraction
Chuan YU ; Wei XU ; Xiaoyu ZHOU ; Lijun LONG ; Ji LI
Chinese Journal of Nosocomiology 2025;35(12):1781-1786
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the influence of gram-negative bacterial infection on the prognosis of patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction(HFrEF),and to explore its effects on biomarker dynamics,car-diac function recovery,rehospitalization rates and all-cause fatality rate.METHODS Clinical data were retrospec-tively collected from 100 patients diagnosed with HFrEF and combined with gram-negative bacterial infection at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou Medical University and the Cardiovascular Medicine of the Army Medi-cal Center of Chinese PLA from Jan.2022 to Jan.2024.Clinical baseline data,including demographic information,medical history and biomarkers[interleukin-6(IL-6),C-reactive protein(CRP),procalcitonin(PCT),brain natriuretic peptide(BNP),N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide(NT-proBNP)and troponin]were collected through follow-up visits for 12 months.Follow-up visits were conducted at discharge,3 months,6 months and 12 months,left ventricular ejection fraction(LVEF),NYHA classification(New York heart asso-ciation functional classification for heart),rehospitalization status and all-cause fatality rate were recorded.RESULTS Gram-negative bacterial infection significantly increased the rehospitalization and all-cause fatality rates in patients with HFrEF.The cumulative rehospitalization rate reached 45.00%within 12 months,and the all-cause fatality rate was 15.00%(P<0.05).Inflammatory markers such as IL-6 and CRP were significantly ele-vated at baseline(P<0.001)and decreased at discharge,while NT-proBNP levels were higher during the follow up period than those after the discharge,positively correlating with the numbers of rehospitalizations and fatality rates(r=0.752,P<0.001).LVEF and NYHA classification improved in the short term but showed poor long-term prognosis.CONCLUSIONS Gram-negative bacterial infection significantly affects the long-term prognosis of patients with HFrEF,exacerbating cardiac function damage through inflammatory responses,thus increases re-hospitalization and fatality rates.This study provides new directions for clinical management,and emphasize the importance of early infection control.
10.Quality inspection of ultrasound soft tissue cutting hemostatic equipment
Jing HUANG ; Qi-di SUN ; Ao-wen DUAN ; Li XU ; Heng-yu LONG ; Hai-jiang ZHU ; He-hua ZHANG
Chinese Medical Equipment Journal 2025;46(10):49-53
Objective To carry out quality inspection of the ultrasound soft tissue cutting hemostatic equipment to ensure its safety and effectiveness.Methods Five brands of ultrasound soft tissue cutting hemostatic equipment were selected and noted as test equipment A,test equipment B,test equipment C,test equipment D and test equipment E,which underwent quality inspection in terms of tip main amplitude,tip lateral amplitude,tip vibration frequency,excitation frequency,static electrical power and contact current based on YY/T 0644-2008 Ultrasonics-surgical systems—Measurement and declaration of the basic output characteristics,YY/T 1750-2020 Ultrasonic surgical equipmetn for soft tissue excision and hemostasia and GB 9706.1-2020 Medical electrical equipment—Part 1:General requirements for basic safety and essential performance.Results The test data of the five brands in terms of tip main amplitude,tip lateral amplitude,tip vibration frequency,excitation frequency,static electrical power and contact current met the technical requirements of YY/T 0644-2008,YY/T 1750-2020,GB 9706.1-2020.Conclusion The quality inspection of the ultrasound soft tissue cutting hemostatic equipment contributes to enhancing the accuracy and stability of the equipment and decreasing the risk during its clinical application.[Chinese Medical Equipment Journal,2025,46(10):49-53]

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