LIU Wansu， as the foremost of the four great masters of the Jin-Yuan period， established the "theory of fire-heat'' and extended the fire-heat pathogenesis framework to the field of stroke， thereby forming the theory of ''fire-heat inducing stroke''. This achieved a paradigmatic shift in stroke etiology from ''exogenous wind inducing stroke'' to ''fire-heat inducing stroke''. This paper systematically reviews the developmental trajectory of LIU Wansu's ''fire-heat inducing stroke'' theory and explores the social background， academic origins， and core connotations of its theoretical construction. The study found that， based on the ''Nineteen Pathomechanisms'' in the Huangdi's Internal Classic （Huang Di Nei Jing） and combined with clinical practice， LIU Wansu proposed that fire-heat is the fundamental cause of stroke， and that the Six Climatic Factors and the Five Zhi-Emotions can all transform into fire. He further constructed a stratified syndrome differentiation and therapeutic system centered on clearing heat and purging fire， emphasizing differentiated treatment of exterior and interior syndromes， Six Meridians syndrome differentiation， and seasonally adjusted medication. This theory not only resolved the diagnostic and therapeutic dilemmas of febrile epidemic diseases during the Jin-Yuan period， but also exerted a profound influence on later physicians such as ZHANG Zihe and ZHU Danxi， thereby promoting the pluralistic development of stroke theory in traditional Chinese medicine （TCM）. Modern pharmacological research provides solid scientific evidence， confirming that the ''fire-heat'' pathological state is highly associated with key mechanisms such as excessive inflammatory responses， oxidative stress， and excitatory amino acid toxicity following cerebral ischemia. Heat-clearing and fire-purging prescriptions and agents， such as Huanglian Jiedu Tang and baicalin， can exert multi-target neuroprotective effects by regulating inflammatory signaling， enhancing antioxidant enzyme activity， and balancing neurotransmitters. This not only verifies the scientific basis of the ''fire-heat inducing stroke'' theory from a modern biological perspective but also provides conclusive evidence for the clinical application of heat-clearing and fire-purging therapy. LIU Wansu's ''fire-heat inducing stroke'' theory represents a major milestone in the historical understanding of stroke pathogenesis， and its academically transitional insights continue to hold core guiding value for the pattern identification and treatment of ischemic stroke today.

LIU Wansu， as the foremost of the four great masters of the Jin-Yuan period， established the "theory of fire-heat'' and extended the fire-heat pathogenesis framework to the field of stroke， thereby forming the theory of ''fire-heat inducing stroke''. This achieved a paradigmatic shift in stroke etiology from ''exogenous wind inducing stroke'' to ''fire-heat inducing stroke''. This paper systematically reviews the developmental trajectory of LIU Wansu's ''fire-heat inducing stroke'' theory and explores the social background， academic origins， and core connotations of its theoretical construction. The study found that， based on the ''Nineteen Pathomechanisms'' in the Huangdi's Internal Classic （Huang Di Nei Jing） and combined with clinical practice， LIU Wansu proposed that fire-heat is the fundamental cause of stroke， and that the Six Climatic Factors and the Five Zhi-Emotions can all transform into fire. He further constructed a stratified syndrome differentiation and therapeutic system centered on clearing heat and purging fire， emphasizing differentiated treatment of exterior and interior syndromes， Six Meridians syndrome differentiation， and seasonally adjusted medication. This theory not only resolved the diagnostic and therapeutic dilemmas of febrile epidemic diseases during the Jin-Yuan period， but also exerted a profound influence on later physicians such as ZHANG Zihe and ZHU Danxi， thereby promoting the pluralistic development of stroke theory in traditional Chinese medicine （TCM）. Modern pharmacological research provides solid scientific evidence， confirming that the ''fire-heat'' pathological state is highly associated with key mechanisms such as excessive inflammatory responses， oxidative stress， and excitatory amino acid toxicity following cerebral ischemia. Heat-clearing and fire-purging prescriptions and agents， such as Huanglian Jiedu Tang and baicalin， can exert multi-target neuroprotective effects by regulating inflammatory signaling， enhancing antioxidant enzyme activity， and balancing neurotransmitters. This not only verifies the scientific basis of the ''fire-heat inducing stroke'' theory from a modern biological perspective but also provides conclusive evidence for the clinical application of heat-clearing and fire-purging therapy. LIU Wansu's ''fire-heat inducing stroke'' theory represents a major milestone in the historical understanding of stroke pathogenesis， and its academically transitional insights continue to hold core guiding value for the pattern identification and treatment of ischemic stroke today.

ObjectiveTo investigate the clinical effect of Ershen Zhenwu Decoction on chronic heart failure （CHF） due to heart-kidney Yang deficiency and blood stasis and its regulatory effects on miR-423-5p/Smad7/transforming growth factor-β₁ （TGF-β₁）/Smads axis and myocardial fibrosis indicators. MethodsOne hundred and fourteen patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction （HFrEF） and heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction （HFmrEF） were randomly allocated into a control group and an observation group. The control group was treated with dapagliflozin tablets， sacubitril-valsartan sodium tablets， metoprolol succinate， and spironolactone， and the observation group was treated with Ershen Zhenwu Decoction on the basis of the therapy in the control group. The course of treatment was 8 weeks in both groups. The 6-min walking distance， New York Heart Association （NYHA） heart function grade， Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire （MLHFQ） score， N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide （NT-proBNP）， angiotensin Ⅱ （Ang Ⅱ）， left ventricular ejection fraction （LVEF）， left ventricular end-diastolic diameter （LVIDd）， left ventricular end-systolic diameter （LVIDs）， interventricular septum thickness at diastole （IVSd）， left ventricular end-diastolic posterior wall thickness （LVPWd）， left ventricular shortening fraction （FS）， miR-423-5p， Smad7， Smad2， Smad3， Smad4， TGF-β₁， Ang Ⅱ， type Ⅰ collagen （Col Ⅰ）， type Ⅲ collagen （Col Ⅲ）， mRNA levels of fibronectin （Fn） and α-smooth muscle actin （α-SMA） in the myocardial tissue were observed before and after treatment in both groups to evaluate the efficacy of cardiac function and drug safety. ResultsAfter treatment， both groups showed declined levels of NT-proBNP， Ang Ⅱ， miR-423-5p， Smad2， Smad3， Smad4， TGF-β₁， Col Ⅰ， Col Ⅲ， and mRNA levels of Fn and α-SMA （P0.05）， and the levels of the indicators above were lower in the observation group than in the control group （P0.05）. After treatment， the Smad7 level increased obviously in both groups （P0.05） and was higher in the observation group than in the control group （P0.05）. After treatment， both groups showed decreased MLHFQ scores and increased 6-min walking distance （P0.05）， and the observation group had lower MLHFQ score and longer 6-min walking distance than the control group （P0.05）. After treatment， the control group showed increased LVEF and FS （P0.05） and the observation group showcased decreased LVIDd and LVIDs and increased LVEF and FS （P0.05）. Moreover， the observation group had lower LVIDd and LVIDs （P0.05） and higher LVEF and FS （P0.05） than the control group. The total response rate of cardiac function in the observation group was 90.38% （47/52）， which was higher than that （70.59%， 36/51） in the control group （P0.05）. No adverse reactions associated with Ershen Zhenwu Decoction were observed during the study period. ConclusionErshen Zhenwu Decoction can improve the cardiac function， exercise tolerance， and quality of life， regulate neuroendocrine factors， and slow down/reverse myocardial remodeling in the patients with HFrEF and HFmrEF （syndrome of heart-kidney Yang deficiency and blood stasis by regulating the miR-423-5p/Smad7/TGF-β₁/Smads axis， inhibiting α-SMA and Fn expression， and alleviating myocardial fibrosis. It is worthy of further study.

ObjectiveTo investigate the clinical effect of Ershen Zhenwu Decoction on chronic heart failure （CHF） due to heart-kidney Yang deficiency and blood stasis and its regulatory effects on miR-423-5p/Smad7/transforming growth factor-β₁ （TGF-β₁）/Smads axis and myocardial fibrosis indicators. MethodsOne hundred and fourteen patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction （HFrEF） and heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction （HFmrEF） were randomly allocated into a control group and an observation group. The control group was treated with dapagliflozin tablets， sacubitril-valsartan sodium tablets， metoprolol succinate， and spironolactone， and the observation group was treated with Ershen Zhenwu Decoction on the basis of the therapy in the control group. The course of treatment was 8 weeks in both groups. The 6-min walking distance， New York Heart Association （NYHA） heart function grade， Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire （MLHFQ） score， N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide （NT-proBNP）， angiotensin Ⅱ （Ang Ⅱ）， left ventricular ejection fraction （LVEF）， left ventricular end-diastolic diameter （LVIDd）， left ventricular end-systolic diameter （LVIDs）， interventricular septum thickness at diastole （IVSd）， left ventricular end-diastolic posterior wall thickness （LVPWd）， left ventricular shortening fraction （FS）， miR-423-5p， Smad7， Smad2， Smad3， Smad4， TGF-β₁， Ang Ⅱ， type Ⅰ collagen （Col Ⅰ）， type Ⅲ collagen （Col Ⅲ）， mRNA levels of fibronectin （Fn） and α-smooth muscle actin （α-SMA） in the myocardial tissue were observed before and after treatment in both groups to evaluate the efficacy of cardiac function and drug safety. ResultsAfter treatment， both groups showed declined levels of NT-proBNP， Ang Ⅱ， miR-423-5p， Smad2， Smad3， Smad4， TGF-β₁， Col Ⅰ， Col Ⅲ， and mRNA levels of Fn and α-SMA （P0.05）， and the levels of the indicators above were lower in the observation group than in the control group （P0.05）. After treatment， the Smad7 level increased obviously in both groups （P0.05） and was higher in the observation group than in the control group （P0.05）. After treatment， both groups showed decreased MLHFQ scores and increased 6-min walking distance （P0.05）， and the observation group had lower MLHFQ score and longer 6-min walking distance than the control group （P0.05）. After treatment， the control group showed increased LVEF and FS （P0.05） and the observation group showcased decreased LVIDd and LVIDs and increased LVEF and FS （P0.05）. Moreover， the observation group had lower LVIDd and LVIDs （P0.05） and higher LVEF and FS （P0.05） than the control group. The total response rate of cardiac function in the observation group was 90.38% （47/52）， which was higher than that （70.59%， 36/51） in the control group （P0.05）. No adverse reactions associated with Ershen Zhenwu Decoction were observed during the study period. ConclusionErshen Zhenwu Decoction can improve the cardiac function， exercise tolerance， and quality of life， regulate neuroendocrine factors， and slow down/reverse myocardial remodeling in the patients with HFrEF and HFmrEF （syndrome of heart-kidney Yang deficiency and blood stasis by regulating the miR-423-5p/Smad7/TGF-β₁/Smads axis， inhibiting α-SMA and Fn expression， and alleviating myocardial fibrosis. It is worthy of further study.

ObjectiveTo investigate whether Huanglian Jiedutang （HLJD） and its major active constituents （geniposide， baicalin， and berberine） can inhibit the inflammatory response of BV2 cells under lipopolysaccharide （LPS） stimulation via the high-mobility group protein B1 （HMGB1）/Toll-like receptor 4 （TLR4）/nuclear factor-κB （NF-κB） signaling pathway， and to explore differences in therapeutic efficacy among the three monomers， their combined formula， and HLJD under equal content ratios. MethodsBV2 microglial cells were used as the primary experimental model. Cell viability was assessed using the cell counting kit-8 （CCK-8） method to examine the effects of different concentrations of dimethyl sulfoxide （DMSO， 0.8%， 0.4%， 0.2%， 0.1%， and 0.05%） on cell viability. IncuCyte was employed to monitor the growth of cells under different concentrations of HLJD （200， 100， 50， 25， 12.5， 6.25 mg·L^-1）. Nitric oxide （NO） assay was used to screen the optimal HLJD concentration. High-performance liquid chromatography （HPLC） determined the content of geniposide， baicalin， and berberine in HLJD， and experimental groups were subsequently established according to the relative proportions of these constituents. CCK-8 assay evaluated cell viability under different treatments. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay （ELISA） measured levels of inflammatory factors （TNF-α， IL-1β， IL-6， IL-10） in the supernatant. Flow cytometry assessed the effects of treatments on M1-type polarization of BV2 cells. Western blot determined the expression levels of HMGB1， TLR4， and NF-κB-related proteins. ResultsCompared with the blank group， DMSO at concentrations ≤0.2% did not affect cell viability within 48 h. BV2 cell growth plateaued at 24 h after treatment with 200 mg·L^-1 HLJD. Under stimulation with 2 mg·L^-1 LPS， this concentration of HLJD effectively reduced NO release， and 6 h pre-treatment had a stronger inhibitory effect on NO than direct administration. HPLC results showed that 1 mg of HLJD freeze-dried powder contained approximately 24 μg of geniposide， 15 μg of baicalin， and 30 μg of berberine. Based on these ratios， experimental groups were blank， LPS （2 mg·L^-1）， HLJD （200 mg·L^-1）， monomer combination， geniposide （4.8 mg·L^-1）， baicalin （3 mg·L^-1）， and berberine （6 mg·L^-1）. The monomer combination group consisted of all three active constituents dissolved together. LPS and HLJD or its active constituents did not affect cell viability compared with the blank group. LPS significantly increased TNF-α， IL-1β， IL-6， and IL-10 in the supernatant （P<0.01）. HLJD and its active constituents significantly reduced pro-inflammatory factors TNF-α， IL-1β， and IL-6 （P<0.05， P<0.01） while upregulating anti-inflammatory IL-10 （P<0.01）， with the monomer combination showing the strongest effect （P<0.05， P<0.01）. Compared with the blank group， LPS significantly increased the proportion of CD80⁺CD86⁺ （M1-type） BV2 cells （P<0.01）. HLJD and its constituents partially inhibited M1 polarization （P<0.05， P<0.01）， with the monomer combination exhibiting the most pronounced effect （P<0.05， P<0.01）. Compared with the blank group， LPS upregulated HMGB1， TLR4， and NF-κB-related proteins （P<0.01）， whereas HLJD and its active constituents significantly reduced their expression （P<0.05， P<0.01）， with the monomer combination having the strongest regulatory effect （P<0.05， P<0.01）. ConclusionHLJD and its major active constituents （geniposide， baicalin， berberine） can inhibit LPS-induced inflammatory responses in BV2 cells. The combination of the three active constituents demonstrates the most potent anti-inflammatory effect， significantly attenuating M1-type polarization of BV2 cells via the HMGB1/TLR4/NF-κB signaling pathway.

Collagen is a major structural protein in the matrix of animal cells and the most widely distributed and abundant functional protein in mammals. Collagen’s good biocompatibility, biodegradability and biological activity make it a very valuable biomaterial. According to the source of collagen, it can be broadly categorized into two types: one is animal collagen; the other is recombinant collagen. Animal collagen is mainly extracted and purified from animal connective tissues by chemical methods, such as acid, alkali and enzyme methods, etc. Recombinant collagen refers to collagen produced by gene splicing technology, where the amino acid sequence is first designed and improved according to one’s own needs, and the gene sequence of improved recombinant collagen is highly consistent with that of human beings, and then the designed gene sequence is cloned into the appropriate vector, and then transferred to the appropriate expression vector. The designed gene sequence is cloned into a suitable vector, and then transferred to a suitable expression system for full expression, and finally the target protein is obtained by extraction and purification technology. Recombinant collagen has excellent histocompatibility and water solubility, can be directly absorbed by the human body and participate in the construction of collagen, remodeling of the extracellular matrix, cell growth, wound healing and site filling, etc., which has demonstrated significant effects, and has become the focus of the development of modern biomedical materials. This paper firstly elaborates the structure, type, and tissue distribution of human collagen, as well as the associated genetic diseases of different types of collagen, then introduces the specific process of producing animal source collagen and recombinant collagen, explains the advantages of recombinant collagen production method, and then introduces the various systems of expressing recombinant collagen, as well as their advantages and disadvantages, and finally briefly introduces the application of animal collagen, focusing on the use of animal collagen in the development of biopharmaceutical materials. In terms of application, it focuses on the use of animal disease models exploring the application effects of recombinant collagen in wound hemostasis, wound repair, corneal therapy, female pelvic floor dysfunction (FPFD), vaginal atrophy (VA) and vaginal dryness, thin endometritis (TE), chronic endometritis (CE), bone tissue regeneration in vivo, cardiovascular diseases, breast cancer (BC) and anti-aging. The mechanism of action of recombinant collagen in the treatment of FPFD and CE was introduced, and the clinical application and curative effect of recombinant collagen in skin burn, skin wound, dermatitis, acne and menopausal urogenital syndrome (GSM) were summarized. From the exploratory studies and clinical applications, it is evident that recombinant collagen has demonstrated surprising effects in the treatment of all types of diseases, such as reducing inflammation, promoting cell proliferation, migration and adhesion, increasing collagen deposition, and remodeling the extracellular matrix. At the end of the review, the challenges faced by recombinant collagen are summarized: to develop new recombinant collagen types and dosage forms, to explore the mechanism of action of recombinant collagen, and to provide an outlook for the future development and application of recombinant collagen.

Lung cancer exhibits the highest incidence and mortality rates among cancers globally,with a five-year overall survival rate alarmingly below 20％.Targeting autophagy,though a controversial therapeutic strategy,is extensively employed in clinical practice.Current research is actively pursuing various therapeutic strategies using small molecules to exploit the dual function of autophagy.Nevertheless,the pivotal question of enhancing or inhibiting autophagy in cancer therapy merits further attention.This review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the mechanisms of autophagy in lung cancer.It also explores recent advances in targeting cytotoxic autophagy and inhibiting protective autophagy with small molecules to induce cell death in lung cancer cells.Notably,most autophagy-targeting drugs,primarily natural small molecules,have demonstrated that activating cytotoxic autophagy effectively induces cell death in lung cancer,as opposed to inhibiting protective autophagy.These insights contribute to identifying druggable targets and drug candidates for potential autophagy-related lung cancer therapies,offering promising approaches to combat this disease.

Objective To explore the potential mechanism of Gegen qinlian decoction(GGQLD)containing serum in ameliorating nonalcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)in human hepatocellular carcinoma HepG2 cells based on transcriptomics.Methods An in vitro model of NAFLD was constructed by free fatty acid(FFA)-induced fat accumulation in HepG2 cells,and cells were treated with different proportions of GGQLD and pioglitazone-containing serum.The lipid deposition in each group was detected by oil red O staining,and the lipid content in each group was evaluated by triglyceride level.Transcriptome technology was used to detect the differentially expressed genes between the intervention groups,and GO annotation analysis,KEGG enrichment analysis and protein interaction(PPI)network analysis were performed to verify the differentially expressed genes by RT-PCR.Results Compared with normal control group,the number of red lipid droplets in the model control group increased,and the triglyceride content increased significantly(P＜0.01).Compared with model control group,the content of red lipid droplets in the GGQLD medium dose group showed a decreasing trend,and the intracellular triglyceride content decreased significantly(P＜0.05).A total of 608 differentially expressed genes were identified by transcriptome analysis,of which 163 differentially expressed genes were up-regulated and 445 differentially expressed genes were down-regulated.GO enrichment analysis showed that the differentially expressed genes were mainly involved in the regulation of MAP kinase phosphatase activity.KEGG analysis showed that the differentially expressed genes were mainly involved in MAPK signaling pathway.RT-PCR results showed that GGQLD up-regulated the expression level of MAP2K6 mRNA and down-regulated the expression levels of FOSL1,CTSL,DUSP5,DUSP1,JUN,HSPA6,IL1A,IL11 and RELB mRNA,which may be mainly involved in MAPK signaling pathway.Conclusion GGQLD has the effect of improving NAFLD,which may be related to MAPK signaling pathway.

Objective:To investigate the impact of postoperative complications on adverse outcomes following curative-intent resection for gallbladder cancer (GBC).Methods:The multi-center real-world study was conducted. The clinicopathological data of 629 patients with GBC, who were admitted to 14 medical centers including The First Affiliated Hospital of Army Medical University from the national multicenter database of Biliary Surgery Group of Elite Group of Chinese Journal of Digestive Surgery, from April 2020 to April 2024 were collected. There were 225 males and 404 females, aged (64±10)years. Patients underwent open curative-intent resection for GBC. Observation indicators: (1)surgery, postoperative complica-tions and adverse outcomes; (2) analysis of risk factors affecting postoperative adverse outcomes in patients and population attributable fraction (PAF). Missing data in predictor variables were addressed using multiple imputation with chained equations, while cases with missing outcome variables were addressed using the "multiple imputation then deletion (MID)" strategy. The severity of multicollinearity among independent variables was assessed using the variance inflation factor (VIF) test. Multivariable possion regression models with log link and robust error variance were construc-ted incorporating restricted cubic splines (3 knots) to address nonlinear relationships in continuous variables, calculating adjusted relative risk ( RR) with corresponding 95% confidence interval ( CI). Adjusted PAF was calculated for each imputed dataset using the AF package of R software, with subsequent pooling performed according to Rubin's rules. Results:(1) Surgery, postoperative complications and adverse outcomes. All 629 patients underwent curative-intent resection for GBC, of which 143 cases had postoperative complications, including 68 cases of intra-abdominal ascites, 39 cases of pulmonary infection, 21 cases of bile leakage, 12 cases of intra-abdominal hemorrhage, 11 cases of liver failure, 10 cases of pan-creatic fistula, 10 cases of wound infection, 10 cases of gastroparesis, 7 cases of cholangitis, 7 cases of sepsis. The same patient could have more than one kind of complication. Of 629 patients, there were 19 cases of postoperative 90-day death and 11 cases of missing data, 42 cases with post-operative 90-day reoperation and 7 cases with missing data, 44 cases with postoperative 90-day readmission and 3 cases with missing data, 155 cases with prolonged postoperative hospital stay and 3 cases with missing data. (2) Analysis of risk factors affecting the postoperative adverse outcomes in patients and PAF. Results of multivariate analysis showed that pulmonary infection and liver failure were independent risk factors for postoperative 90-day mortality ( RR=3.74, 12.15, 95% CI as 1.18-11.83, 1.98-74.48, P<0.05). Pulmonary infection demons-trated the highest PAF as 4.61% (95% CI as 3.94%-5.28%, P<0.05). Intra-abdominal ascites, pulmonary infection, bile leakage, and intra-abdominal hemorrhage were independent risk factors for post-operative 90-day reoperation ( RR=4.80, 3.62, 3.46, 4.99, 95% CI as 2.49-9.26, 1.42-9.21, 1.34-8.92, 1.55-16.06, P<0.05). Intra-abdominal ascites demonstrated the highest PAF as 8.65% (95% CI as 8.22%-9.08%, P<0.05). Intra-abdominal ascites, bile leakage, and liver failure were independent risk factors for postoperative 90-day readmission ( RR=6.20, 3.33, 14.33, 95% CI as 3.21-11.95, 1.33-8.35, 3.72-55.28, P<0.05). Intra-abdominal ascites demonstrated the highest PAF as 9.11% (95% CI as 8.85%-9.37%, P<0.05). Intra-abdominal ascites, pulmonary infection, bile leakage, liver failure, and wound infection were independent risk factors for prolonged postoperative hospital stay ( RR=2.29, 2.21, 2.26, 2.14, 3.35, 95% CI as 1.63-3.23, 1.41-3.46, 1.32-3.86, 1.11-4.13, 1.70-6.60, P<0.05). Intra-abdominal ascites demonstrated the highest PAF as 6.03% (95% CI as 5.71%-6.35%, P<0.05). Conclusion:Pulmonary infection is the most significant risk factor for postoperative 90-day mortality after curative-intent resection for GBC, while intra-abdominal ascites is the most significant risk factor for postoperative 90-day reoperation, postoperative 90-day readmission, and prolonged postoperative hospital stay.

OBJECTIVE To explore the application of autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)in prediction of prevalence trends of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae(CRKP)in intensive care unit(ICU)so as to provide scientific bases for formulating prevention strategies for CRKP infection in ICU.METHODS The number of CRKP strains that were monthly isolated from the ICU patients of Jiangnan University Affiliated Hospital between Jan.2021 and Jan.2024 was collected,the duplicate samples from the same patient were excluded,and totally 555 strains of CRKP were finally enrolled in the study.The time series differencing was performed by using R statistical software,the ARIMA model was established,the parameters of the model were determined by means of autocorrelation function(ACF)and partial autocorrelation function(PACF)images.The optimal model was screened out by Akaike information criterion(AIC)and root-mean-square error(RMSD),the robustness of the residual sequences was assessed by Box-Ljung test.The data that were detected from Sep.2023 to Jan.2024 were assigned as the validation set,the prediction accuracy of the model was assessed,and the dy-namic trend of the CRKP strains from Feb.2024 to Apr.2024 was predicted.RESULTS The isolation rate of CRKP strains in ICU showed dynamic change from 2021 to 2023(x2=66.906,P=0.001),sputum and midstream urine were the major sources.The minimal AIC of the optimal ARIMA model(8,1,10)was 222.1,with RMSE 3.67.Box-Ljung(x2=0.104,P=0.746)test indicated that there was no autocorrelation among the residual se-quences.Both the actual CRKP and the predictive value firstly rose then descended from Sep.2023 to Jan.2024,and the average relative error of the model was 9.62％for prediction.The number of isolated CRKP strains predic-ted by the model might reached to the lowest point in Feb.2024 and then showed an upward trend,and it might reach to a high peak in Apr.CONCLUSION ARIMA model is effective for short-term prediction and dynamic anal-ysis of prevalence trend of CRKP strains in the ICU so as to provide theoretical basis for early warning of hospital-associated infection and take corresponding prevention measures.