Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

Objective To analyze the independent factors affecting the prognosis of pancreatic cancer and construct a prediction model based on surveillance,epidemiology,and end results(SEER)database.Methods The clinical data of 7 801 American pancreatic cancer patients from 2010 to 2015 were obtained from SEER database.They were randomly divided into training group and validation group in a ratio of 7∶3.The nomogram was constructed after multivariate COX regression analysis of clinical variables in the training group.The accuracy of the model was verified by receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and calibration curve.Results Age,primary-site,grade,T-stage,N-stage,M-stage,surgery,radiotherapy and chemotherapy were related to the prognosis of the patients with pancreatic cancer.The area under curve(AUC)of overall survival(OS)ROC curve of 3-and 5-year were 0.90 and 0.91 respectively.The AUC of cancer specific survival(CSS)ROC curve were 0.91 and 0.91 respectively.The calibration curve showed a good consistency between the observed and predicted values.The selected clinical variables did have an impact on the prognosis of the patients with pancreatic cancer.Conclusions The model had good prediction accuracy and was helpful for clinical decision-making and personalized treatment of the patients with pancreatic cancer.

Burning mouth syndrome (BMS) is a chronic oral and facial pain disorder characterized by burning pain in the oral mucosa, with multiple pathogenic factors including psychosocial, neuropathological, endocrine, and immune factors. There is still a lack of effective treatment options that have been demonstrated to work. With the development of research on the pathogenesis and treatment of BMS, multidisciplinary comprehensive treatment has gradually been introduced and become a new trend of diagnosis and treatment. Before multidisciplinary treatment, it is necessary to go through a full and comprehensive diagnosis and analysis, select the best comprehensive treatment plan, take the diagnosis and treatment of stomatology as the basis and premise, and apply other multidisciplinary combined treatment, including the treatment of concurrent diseases, psychological interventions, correction of bad habits, etc. A combination of laser therapy and psychological intervention is a more effective treatment method among the current treatment methods, with high comfort and good acceptance by patients. If necessary, mecobalamin tablets, clonazepam α-lipoic acid and other drugs can be used to nourish nerves and provide symptomatic treatment. The comprehensive multidisciplinary treatment of BMS is expected to become a new trend and provide a new strategy for improving the therapeutic effect.

Objective    To explore whether surgery combined with adjuvant chemotherapy can bring survival benefits to patients with cervical and upper thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Methods    The clinical data of patients with cervical and upper thoracic ESCC who underwent R0 resection and neck anastomosis in our department from 2006 to 2010 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients received neoadjuvant therapy or adjuvant radiotherapy were excluded. The adjuvant chemotherapy group was given a combination of taxanes and platinum based chemotherapy after surgery; the surgery alone group did not receive adjuvant chemotherapy. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to analyze the survival difference between the adjuvant chemotherapy group and the surgery alone group. Results    A total of 181 patients were enrolled, including 141 (77.9%) males and 40 (22.1%) females, with an average age of 61.0±8.2 years (80 patients aged≤61 years, 101 patients aged>61 years). There were 70 (38.7%) patients of cervical ESCC, and 111 (61.3%) patients of upper thoracic ESCC. Eighty-seven (48.1%) patients underwent postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy, and 94 (51.9%) patients underwent surgery alone, and the basic clinical characteristics were well balanced between the two groups (P>0.05). The median survival time of patients in the adjuvant chemotherapy group and the surgery alone group was 31.93 months and 26.07 months, and the 5-year survival rate was 35.0% and 32.0%, respectively (P=0.227). There was no statistical difference in median survival time between the cervical ESCC and upper thoracic ESCC group (31.83 months vs. 29.76 months, P=0.763). For cervical ESCC patients, the median survival time was 45.07 months in the adjuvant chemotherapy group and 14.70 months in the surgery alone group (P=0.074). Further analysis showed that the median survival time of lymph node negative group was 32.53 months, and the lymph node positive group was 24.57 months (P=0.356). The median survival time was 30.43 months in the lymph-node positive group with adjuvant chemotherapy and 17.77 months in the lymph-node positive group with surgery alone. The survival curve showed a trend of difference, but the difference was not statistically significant (P=0.557). Conclusion    There is no statistical difference in the long-term survival of cervical and upper thoracic ESCC patients after R0 resection. Postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy may have survival benefits for patients with cervical ESCC and upper ESCC with postoperative positive lymph nodes, but the differences are not statistically significant in this setting.

Objective: To study the current situation and relevant risk factors for disability and dementia among the elderly in urban areas of Jiangsu province. Methods: A stratified cluster sampling method was used to select representative elderly people aged 60 years and over in urban areas in Jiangsu Province, and a face-to-face questionnaire survey was conducted.The activities of daily living(ADL)scale and mini-mental state examination(MMSE)were used to assess the status of disability and dementia.And the relevant risk factors for disability and dementia were analyzed by univariate and multivariate Logistic regression methods. Results: A total of 1 600 elderly people were investigated and 1 514 valid questionnaires were recovered.The effective recovery rate was 94.6%.The rates of disability and dementia were 17.9%(271/1 514)and 8.5%(129/1 514)respectively in the elderly in Jiangsu urban areas.Univariate analysis showed that age, marital status, education level, empty-nest, whether or not to suffer from chronic diseases, health status, medication, and whether or not to have dementia were significantly related with the disability in the elderly(P<0.01). And age, gender, marital status, education level, whether or not to suffer from chronic diseases, health status, medication, and whether or not to have disability were significantly related with the dementia in the elderly(P<0.01). Multivariate analysis showed that the risk factors associating with increasing disability in the elderly were advanced age(OR=16.371), non-marriage(OR=1.917), chronic disease(OR=2.256), poor health condition(OR=23.214), dementia(OR=4.067)and insufficient income(OR=1.607)(P<0.05). And the factors associating with increasing risks for dementia in the elderly were advanced age(OR=2.864), female(OR=1.610), poor health condition(OR=3.097), empty nest(OR=1.607)and disability(OR=4.026)(P<0.05). Therefore, comprehensive measures should be taken for intervention of disability and dementia in the elderly. Conclusions The incidence of disability and dementia is high among the elderly in urban areas of Jiangsu Province.Disability and dementia are the results of the interaction effect of health, family and social factors.Therefore, comprehensive measures against risk factors should be taken for intervention of disability and dementia in the elderly.

Objective To study the health status ,the current health service needs and the influencing factors concerning the rural elderly population in Northern Jiangsu. Methods Multi-stage stratified cluster sampling was conducted in elderly people over 60 in Xuzhou ,Lianyungang ,and Suqian.Participants were face-to-face interviewed with questionnaires.Information on health status and health service needs was collected and analyzed. Results A total of 2655 elderly people were enrolled in this study ,including 1252 males (47.2%)and 1403 (52.8%)females with a mean age of (70.9 ± 6.7)years.Self-assessed health was generally poor ,with the two-week morbidity at 26.6%and the prevalence of chronic diseases at 60.1%;46.5% of the participants regularly took medications ;4.1% of them had physical disability ;8.2% had impaired daily activities ;The two-week hospital visit rate was 29.4%;The one-year hospitalization rate was 18.5%;The rate of non-hospitalization for people in need of hospitalization was 27.6%.Multivariate analysis showed that old age(OR＝5.51) ,adequate income(OR＝2.29)and short journey to a medical institution (OR＝7.90) were associated with high two-week hospital visit rates ;old age(OR ＝ 1.76) ,female gender(OR ＝1.36) ,empty-nest(OR＝ 1.37 ) ,family harmony (OR＝ 1.91 ) ,having chronic diseases (OR＝ 3.49 ) , and high frequency in taking medications (OR＝1.69)were correlated with high hospitalization rates. Conclusions The elderly population in rural areas of Northern Jiangsu shows poor health ,has high needs for health services ,and lacks sufficient service utilization.

Objective: To analyze the clinical value of SPECT/CT in diagnosis of skull base bone invasion and clinical decision-making for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), and to compare their diagnostic value with SPECT/CT, CT, MRI, and MRI combined with SPECT (MRI-SPECT) for skull base bone invasion. Methods: Before treatment, among 348 newly diagnosed NPC patients, CT scan was performed in 186 patients (group A) and the remaining 162 patients received MRI scan (group B). Clinical doctors then made clinical management decisions according to the CT or MRI results. After that, all patients underwent ⁹⁹Tc^m-MDP SPECT/CT examination for nasopharyngeal local tomography, and the results were provided to the clinical doctors to make clinical management decisions again. The changes between the two clinical management decisions were scored according to diagnosis, range of lesion, staging, treatment regimens, and auxiliary examination. The diagnostic value of CT scan, MRI scan, SPECT/CT and MRI-SPECT for skull base bone invasion was then evaluated and compared. Results: In terms of changes in scores of clinical management decisions, the score of group A was 1.387 and group B was 0.951, showing a significant difference between the two groups by Wilcoxon test (Z=6.570, P<0.001). By χ² test, there were correlations between CT and SPECT/CT (χ² =98.495, P<0.001), and between MRI and SPECT/CT (χ² =32.662, P<0.001). The consistency of CT and SPECT/CT (Kappa=0.713) was greater than MRI and SPECT (Kappa=0.449). The sensitivity of CT, MRI, SPECT/CT and MRI-SPECT was 67.1%, 84.5%, 90.8% and 100%, the specificity was 73.3%, 92.3%, 85.6% and 84.6%, and the area under the ROC curve was 0.702, 0.884, 0.882 and 0.923, respectively. Conclusions SPECT/CT has important impact on clinical management decision for NPC. In the judgement of skull base invasion, the diagnostic value of SPECT/CT is significantly higher than CT and approximately equal to MRI. SPECT/CT should be one of the routine examination methods of nasopharyngeal carcinoma. In addition, in view of its greater diagnostic value, MRI combined with SPECT should be the focus of future imaging studies.

Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Female ; Fluorodeoxyglucose F18 ; Follow-Up Studies ; Humans ; Lymph Nodes ; diagnostic imaging ; pathology ; Lymphoma, Large B-Cell, Diffuse ; diagnostic imaging ; pathology ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Neck ; diagnostic imaging ; pathology ; Positron-Emission Tomography ; Prognosis ; Young Adult

OBJECTIVETo compare the diagnostic value of ¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography/computed tomography (¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT) and large-scale diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) for evaluation of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) bone marrow (BM) infiltration.

METHODSA total of 79 patients with pathologically diagnosed NHL underwent ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT, large scale DWI and BM pathological examination. BM examination as the "gold standard", the performance (the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive and negative predictive value) of ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT and large scale DWI for evaluation of BM infiltration was compared and the risk of BM infiltration of different subtypes and sources of NHL was analyzed.

RESULTS25 of 79 cases were diagnosed as BM infiltration by pathological examination with 57 BM sites. Abnormal high BM metabolisms were identified in 22 cases with 56 BM sites by ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT and 25 cases with 58 BM sites by large-scale DWI. The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive and negative predictive value of ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT were 80.0%, 96.3%, 91.1%, 90.9%, 91.2%, respectively. And they were 84.0%, 92.6%, 89.9%, 84.0%, and 92.6% by large-scale DWI, respectively. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis demonstrated that there was no statistical difference in ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT and large-scale DWI (P>0.05). The area under ROC curve for ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT and large-scale DWI were 0.911 and 0.883 respectively. The incidences of BM infiltration in aggressive NHL patients by ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT (21/69, 30.4%) and large-scale DWI (23/69, 33.3%) were higher than those (PET/CT: 10.0%; large-scale DWI: 20.0%; P>0.05) in indolent NHL patients.

CONCLUSION¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT and large-scale DWI had important clinical value in diagnosing BM infiltration of NHL. A combination of ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT, large-scale DWI and pathological examination could improve the positive rate of BM infiltration in NHL.

Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Bone Marrow ; pathology ; Female ; Fluorodeoxyglucose F18 ; Humans ; Lymphoma, Non-Hodgkin ; diagnosis ; diagnostic imaging ; pathology ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Positron-Emission Tomography ; Sensitivity and Specificity ; Tomography, X-Ray Computed ; Young Adult

Objective To understand the characteristics and rules of behavior and preliminary study on the change of psychological state and behavior of infant rhesus monkeys after weaning by artificial feed .Methods 290 infant rhesus monkeys were born in 2012, individual behavior of infant rhesus monkeys were observed and recorded by the methods of ad libitum sampling and chronography .Results The behavior of huddling , sucking finger and sucking body of companion were observed in the first month , the behavior of huddling and sucking finger were significantly increased in the second and third month(P <0.05), sucking body of companion in second month were significantly higher than the first month (P <0.05);the new behavior pacing , sucking genitalia and mounting were observed in the second month , pacing and sucking were significantly increased in the third month ( P <0.05 ) , mounting did not have obvious change; in the third month , sucking toe behavior ware recorded and did not change with time; The proportion of huddling behavior occurred between female and female was significantly higher than opposite sex or male in the same cage .The male infant monkeys were more likely to occurred pacing behavior than female .Sucking body of companion and sucking finger behavior of male were significantly lower than the female infant monkeys ( P <0.05 ) .There was no significant difference of sucking toe behavior .Conclusions 7 behaviors were recorded during the whole stage of observation , huddling behavior , pacing behavior , sucking toe behavior , sucking finger behavior , sucking genitalia behavior , sucking body of companion behavior and mounting behavior respectively , and 7 behaviors were increased by degrees with time .Huddling behavior to reflect fear psychology;sucking behavior to represent physiological demand and defensive psychology ;pacing was insignificant behavior in the initial stage , then to reflect psychological anxiety of rhesus monkeys .Provided a way and model on assessment of psychology, praxiology, to study and research the change of psychological state and behavior of early weaning infants .