1.Application of optimized combination prediction model in the prediction of hand, foot and mouth disease
Weijie TIAN ; Qian GAO ; Kun YANG ; Zhirong ZHAO ; Jian CHEN
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2026;37(1):58-62
Objective To explore scientific and accurate prediction methods for the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in the post-pandemic era, and to address modeling challenges caused by abnormal fluctuations in case numbers from 2020 to 2023. Methods The seasonal index was used to pre-process the data. The traditional seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, singular spectrum analysis (SSA)-ARIMA model, ARIMA-Long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model were used to fit the incidence from 2013 to 2023, and the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in 2024 was predicted. The real data collected in 2024 were used as the test set to compare the prediction performance of the models. Results The fitting performance of the constructed models was as follows: the ARIMA model had MAE=107.50 and RMSE=144.53, the SSA-ARIMA model showed MAE=2.84 and RMSE=4.33, the ARIMA-LSTM model achieved MAE=99.46 and RMSE=131.59, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model had MAE=96.35 and RMSE=132.13. In terms of prediction performance, the ARIMA model resulted in MAE=151.64 and RMSE=146.70, the SSA-ARIMA model demonstrated MAE=41.22 and RMSE=57.01, the ARIMA-LSTM model yielded MAE=220.75 and RMSE=257.89, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model recorded MAE=58.83 and RMSE=72.06. Conclusion The SSA-ARIMA model has the best fitting degree and the highest prediction accuracy, and is suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease.
2.Establishment of a new predictive model for esophagogastric variceal rebleeding in liver cirrhosis based on clinical features
Wen GUO ; Xuyulin YANG ; Run GAO ; Yaxin CHEN ; Kun YIN ; Qian LI ; Manli CUI ; Mingxin ZHANG
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2026;42(1):101-110
ObjectiveTo establish a new noninvasive, simple, and convenient clinical predictive model by identifying independent predictive factors for rebleeding after endoscopic therapy in cirrhotic patients with esophagogastric variceal bleeding (EGVB), and to provide a basis for individualized risk assessment and development of clinical intervention strategies. MethodsCirrhotic patients with EGVB who were diagnosed and treated in The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Medical University from September 2018 to October 2023 were enrolled as subjects, and according to whether the patient experienced rebleeding within 1 year after endoscopic therapy, they were divided into rebleeding group with 93 patients and non-rebleeding group with 84 patients. Clinical data were collected and analyzed. The independent samples t-test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between two groups, and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between two groups; the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. A Logistic model was established based on the results of the univariate and multivariate analyses, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. R software was used to visualize the model by plotting a nomogram, and the Bootstrap method was used for internal validation of the model. ResultsThe multivariate analysis showed that red blood cell count (RBC), cholinesterase (ChE), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), albumin (Alb), thrombin time (TT), portal vein trunk diameter, sequential therapy, and primary prevention were independent predictive factors for rebleeding. Based on the results of the multivariate analysis, a logistic model was established as logit(P)=-0.805-1.978×(RBC)+0.001×(ChE)-0.020×(ALP)-0.314×(Alb)+0.567×(TT)+0.428×(portal vein trunk diameter)-2.303×[sequential therapy (yes=1, no=0)]-2.368×[primary prevention (yes=1, no=0)]. The logistic model (AUC=0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.893—0.964, P<0.001) had a better performance in predicting rebleeding than MELD score (AUC=0.603, 95%CI: 0.520—0.687, P=0.003), Child-Pugh class (AUC=0.650, 95%CI: 0.578—0.722, P=0.001), and FIB-4 index (AUC=0.587, 95%CI: 0.503—0.671, P=0.045). The model had an optimal cut-off value of 0.607, a sensitivity of 0.817, and a specificity of 0.817. Internal validation confirmed that the model had good predictive performance and accuracy. ConclusionSequential therapy, implementation of primary prevention, an increase in RBC, and an increase in Alb are protective factors against rebleeding, while prolonged TT and widened main portal vein diameter are risk factors. The logistic model based on these independent predictive factors can predict rebleeding and thus holds promise for clinical application.
3.China - Africa cooperation for tropical diseases control: current status and future priorities
Shenning LU ; Kun YANG ; Yingjun QIAN ; Duoquan WANG ; Shan LÜ ; Xiaonong ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2026;38(1):1-7
Tropical diseases, the transmission of which is affected by multiple natural and social factors, pose a great challenge to global public health, notably in African countries. During the past several decades, China and African countries have continuously collaborated for the control of neglected tropical diseases and malaria, which has become an important part of global South-to-South cooperation and global health governance. This article reviews the history of China-Africa cooperation for tropical diseases control, summarizes the experiences and achievements over the past decade, analyzes the current challenges in the coopera tion, and proposes future recommendations. The China-Africa cooperation has achieved significant progress in the control of tropical diseases, such as malaria, schistosomiasis, and filariasis, and established a China-Africa cooperation network for tropical diseases control. Through the "Three-Step" strategy of China-Africa cooperation, the effectiveness of China's integrated control strategies has been validated in Africa, and the application of China's tropical disease control technologies has been promoted in African disease-epidemic countries. Currently, China-Africa collaboration, however, still experiences multiple realistic challenges, such as insufficient resources, difficulty in technology transfer, and weak primary healthcare systems. In the future, both sides are recommended to further strengthen policy coordination, deepen technological cooperation, innovate cooperation models, aiming to continuously promote the high-quality development of China-Africa cooperation for tropical diseases control.
4.Characteristic analysis of nanogel composite system and its application strategies in visualization of diagnostic imaging and therapy
Qian ZHANG ; Fuxia WANG ; Wen WANG ; Kun ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(2):480-488
BACKGROUND:Nanogels can combine the properties of nanoparticles and hydrogels,which have multiple advantages and can play a great role in clinical translation.OJECTIVE:To summarize the self-and cross-linking properties of nanogels,the diagnostic and therapeutic integration strategies they played in a variety of imaging processes,in conjunction with their functional visualization and application properties.METHODS:By searching PubMed,Web of Science,CNKI,and Wanfang databases,English and Chinese search terms were"nanogel,nanohydrogel,imaging,magnetic resonance imaging,fluorescence imaging,ultrasound imaging,photoacoustic imaging,multimodal imaging,therapy,treatment."According to the inclusion criteria,78 articles were finally selected for review.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:The preparation process of nanogels is significantly affected by their multiple properties and cross-linking mechanisms.Optimization of these properties and mechanisms can help to improve their structural performance and accelerate the translation of their clinical applications.With the trend of integrated diagnosis and treatment,functional visualization of nanogels can effectively image tumors with the help of magnetic resonance imaging,fluorescence imaging,ultrasonography,photoacoustic imaging,and multimodal imaging,which can be of key value in the treatment strategies of various diseases.These findings not only pave the way for improving the preparation methods of nanogels,but also create a robust groundwork for hastening their clinical translation.
5.Characteristic analysis of nanogel composite system and its application strategies in visualization of diagnostic imaging and therapy
Qian ZHANG ; Fuxia WANG ; Wen WANG ; Kun ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(2):480-488
BACKGROUND:Nanogels can combine the properties of nanoparticles and hydrogels,which have multiple advantages and can play a great role in clinical translation.OJECTIVE:To summarize the self-and cross-linking properties of nanogels,the diagnostic and therapeutic integration strategies they played in a variety of imaging processes,in conjunction with their functional visualization and application properties.METHODS:By searching PubMed,Web of Science,CNKI,and Wanfang databases,English and Chinese search terms were"nanogel,nanohydrogel,imaging,magnetic resonance imaging,fluorescence imaging,ultrasound imaging,photoacoustic imaging,multimodal imaging,therapy,treatment."According to the inclusion criteria,78 articles were finally selected for review.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:The preparation process of nanogels is significantly affected by their multiple properties and cross-linking mechanisms.Optimization of these properties and mechanisms can help to improve their structural performance and accelerate the translation of their clinical applications.With the trend of integrated diagnosis and treatment,functional visualization of nanogels can effectively image tumors with the help of magnetic resonance imaging,fluorescence imaging,ultrasonography,photoacoustic imaging,and multimodal imaging,which can be of key value in the treatment strategies of various diseases.These findings not only pave the way for improving the preparation methods of nanogels,but also create a robust groundwork for hastening their clinical translation.
6.Clinical features and multimodal quantitative radiological features of primary liver cancer patients with different traditional Chinese medicine syndrome types
Feng WU ; Muqing LUO ; Wantingting WEN ; Ziwei CAI ; Yinqi LIU ; Jian XIANG ; Xiaona ZHOU ; Qian GUO ; Kun ZHANG
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2026;42(5):1093-1100
ObjectiveTo investigate the association of the traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) syndrome types of primary liver cancer (PLC) with clinical features and multimodal quantitative radiological features on computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and to provide a reference for the objectification of TCM syndrome differentiation and precise diagnosis and treatment. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 312 patients who were diagnosed with PLC in The First Affiliated Hospital of Hunan University of Chinese Medicine from March 2020 to June 2025, and according to the TCM syndrome type, they were divided into stagnation of liver Qi group with 40 patients, stagnation of liver Qi and spleen deficiency group with 109 patients, Qi stagnation and blood stasis group with 62 patients, dampness-heat toxin amassment group with 81 patients, and liver-kidney Yin deficiency group with 20 patients. Clinical features and multimodal quantitative radiological features were compared between the patients with different TCM syndrome types. A one-way analysis of variance was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between multiple groups, and the least significant difference t-test was used for further comparison between two groups; the Kruskal-Wallis H test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between multiple groups, and the Dunn’s multiple test was used for further comparison between two groups; the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups, and the Bonferroni method was used for further comparison between two groups. ResultsThere were significant differences between the patients with different TCM syndrome types in China liver cancer staging (CNLC), Child-Pugh class, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, albumin, direct bilirubin, total bilirubin, prothrombin time, neutrophil, and albumin-bilirubin score (all P<0.05). In the stagnation of liver Qi group, the patients with Child-Pugh class A accounted for 75.00%; among the patients with CNLC stage I PLC, the patients with stagnation of liver Qi accounted for 60.00%, and those with Qi stagnation and blood stasis syndrome accounted for 59.68%, while among the patients with CNLC stage IV PLC, the distribution proportion of dampness-heat toxin amassment (27.16%) and liver-kidney Yin deficiency (30.00%) was significantly higher than that of stagnation of liver Qi (2.50%) (all P<0.05). Radiological examination showed that there were significant differences between the patients with different TCM syndrome types in the number of tumors, ascites, venous tumor thrombus, maximum tumor diameter, intrahepatic metastasis, and lymph node metastasis in the hepatic hilar and retroperitoneal regions (all P<0.05). Compared with the patients with stagnation of liver Qi, the patients with liver depression and spleen deficiency or liver-kidney Yin deficiency were more likely to develop intrahepatic metastasis; the patients with liver depression and spleen deficiency, dampness-heat toxin amassment, or liver-kidney Yin deficiency were more likely to develop lymph node metastasis in the hepatic hilar and retroperitoneal regions; the patients with liver-kidney Yin deficiency were more likely to experience multiple tumors; the patients with liver depression and spleen deficiency or dampness-heat toxin amassment were more likely to develop ascites (all P<0.05). Compared with the patients with Qi stagnation and blood stasis syndrome, the patients with liver depression and spleen deficiency had a significantly longer maximum tumor diameter and a significantly higher proportion of patients with venous tumor thrombus (both P<0.05). Furthermore, among the 184 patients with MRI diffusion-weighted imaging sequences, the patients with dampness-heat toxin amassment or Qi stagnation and blood stasis syndrome had significantly higher ADC values and relative ADC values than those with stagnation of liver Qi (all P<0.05). ConclusionThere are significant differences in CT/MRI radiological features and clinical features between PLC patients with different TCM syndrome types, among whom the patients with liver depression and spleen deficiency, dampness-heat toxin amassment, and liver-kidney Yin deficiency tend to exhibit progressive radiological features, and those with dampness-heat toxin amassment or Qi stagnation and blood stasis syndrome tend to have higher ADC values. These findings provide an objective basis for TCM syndrome differentiation in PLC.
7.Endoplasmic reticulum stress in the occurrence and development of common degenerative bone diseases
Kun QIAN ; Ziqing LI ; Shui SUN
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2025;29(6):1285-1295
BACKGROUND:The specific molecular mechanisms underlying common degenerative bone diseases,such as osteoarthritis,osteoporosis,and intervertebral disc degeneration,are currently unclear and may involve endoplasmic reticulum stress.At present,research on the systematic role of endoplasmic reticulum stress in the pathogenesis of these common skeletal diseases and related therapeutic progress is relatively limited. OBJECTIVE:To review the role of endoplasmic reticulum stress in common degenerative bone diseases,explore the molecular mechanisms of these diseases in depth,and provide new ideas and perspectives for prevention and treatment of these diseases. METHODS:Relevant literature from 2000 to 2024 was searched in CNKI,WanFang,VIP,PubMed and Web of Science databases using the search terms of"endoplasmic reticulum stress,bone disease,unfolded protein response,osteoarthritis,osteoporosis,intervertebral disc degeneration,autophagy,apoptosis,ferroptosis,pyroptosis"in Chinese and English.After removal of duplicates and older literature,a total of 115 articles met the inclusion criteria. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:Endoplasmic reticulum stress has a dual effect in regulating cell physiology.Mild endoplasmic reticulum stress promotes osteogenic differentiation and extracellular matrix synthesis;however,persistent excessive endoplasmic reticulum stress leads to cell death.Endoplasmic reticulum stress-induced cell autophagy and apoptosis are closely related to osteoarthritis,osteoporosis,and intervertebral disc degeneration.Aging,drug side effects,metabolic disorders,calcium imbalance,poor lifestyle habits and other reasons may lead to long-term activation of endoplasmic reticulum stress,which causes bone remodeling disorders,cartilage damage,nucleus pulposus cell death and other pathological manifestations,ultimately leading to the occurrence of osteoarthritis,osteoporosis and intervertebral disc degeneration.Intervention in the relevant mechanisms triggering endoplasmic reticulum stress is expected to play a role in the prevention and treatment of common degenerative bone diseases,such as osteoarthritis,osteoporosis and intervertebral disc degeneration.
8.Research progress on the role of parathyroid hormone and parathyroid hormone-related peptide in regulating tooth eruption
LUO Qian ; HU Yushang ; YANG Kun ; GE Song ; ZHONG Wenyi
Journal of Prevention and Treatment for Stomatological Diseases 2025;33(7):604-611
The emergence of teeth is a complex physiological process characterized by the formation of the tooth crown, its movement towards the occlusal plane, and subsequent penetration through the alveolar bone and oral mucosa to achieve functional positioning for contact with opposing teeth. Parathyroid hormone (PTH) and parathyroid hormone-related peptide (PTHrP) are critical regulators of calcium and phosphorus metabolism in the body, playing significant roles in tooth emergence. Their regulatory functions exhibit intricate temporal and spatial dynamics, with underlying mechanisms that remain incompletely understood. In recent years, an increasing number of researchers both domestically and internationally have investigated the role and mechanisms of PTH/PTHrP in tooth emergence, primarily focusing on aspects such as dental sac formation, basal alveolar bone development, coronal alveolar bone resorption, root formation, and periodontal ligament development. Literature reviews indicate that PTH and PTHrP regulate bone metabolism, coordinate various signaling pathways including OPG/RANK/RANKL, cAMP/PKA, and Wnt/β-catenin, and are allosterically modulated by Ca2+ and ATP. These processes contribute to the development of dental sacs, which transmit signals to recruit osteoclasts and promote the resorption of crown alveolar bone, thereby forming an eruption pathway. Additionally, PTH/PTHrP plays a role in the formation of basal alveolar bone, root development, and the periodontal ligament, generating the force necessary for tooth eruption. Through precise spatiotemporal regulation and coordinated efforts, alveolar bone remodeling is achieved, facilitating the intricate process of tooth eruption. Through stringent temporal regulation and multi-faceted cooperation, remodeling of the alveolar bone occurs to complete this intricate developmental process of tooth emergence. Future research should further elucidate the mechanisms underlying PTH/PTHrP actions while also considering optimal dosage regimens regarding timing and frequency for therapeutic applications.
9.Effectiveness of autologous platelet-rich plasma for blood conservation and its prognostic impact in patients with type A aortic dissection
Qian ZHENG ; Shoumei CHEN ; Ming XIE ; Shenshen ZHI ; Kun LIU ; Ting JIANG
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion 2025;38(8):1035-1042
Objective: To investigate the effects of autologous platelet-rich plasma (aPRP) collected using a continuous blood cell separator on blood conservation and prognosis in patients with type A aortic dissection. Methods: The clinical data of patients who underwent emergency aortic replacement for acute type A aortic dissection at our hospital from January 2020 to December 2023 were respectively analyzed. Patients were divided into two groups based on whether they received aPRP collection before surgery for subsequent reinfusion: the aPRP group (n=32) and the control group (n=35). The volume of aPRP collected and the platelet concentration in the aPRP were recorded. The volumes of allogeneic blood and blood products transfused, and the associated costs during hospitalization were compared between two groups. Intraoperative blood loss, perioperative laboratory parameter changes, 24-hour postoperative drainage volume, duration of ICU stay and mechanical ventilation, length of hospital stay, and mortality rate of the two groups were also compared. Results: The platelet concentration in aPRP was (491.5±85.4)×10
/L, accounting for (24.1±9.6)% of the patient's total platelet count. The volume of aPRP collected accounted for (23.0±6.3)% of the patient's total plasma volume. Compared with the control group, the aPRP group demonstrated significantly reduced transfusion volumes of allogeneic red blood cells, plasma, and platelets (P<0.05), along with significantly lower blood-related costs during hospitalization (P<0.05). Postoperative coagulation parameters (APTT, PT, INR, and TEG) were significantly improved (P<0.05), and platelet counts were markedly increased (P<0.05) in aPRP group as compared with the control group. No statistically significant differences were observed in postoperative use of prothrombin complex concentrate and fibrinogen between the two groups. Similarly, there were no significant differences in postoperative 24-hour drainage volume, 24-hour extubation rate, ICU length of stay, duration of mechanical ventilation, or total hospital length of stay. The incidence of complications and mortality did not differ significantly between the two groups. Conclusion: The administration of aPRP significantly reduces the requirement for perioperative allogeneic blood transfusion in patients undergoing surgery for type A aortic dissection. Furthermore, it enhances coagulation function and reduces associated transfusion costs, thereby establishing itself as an effective and safe strategy for blood conservation.
10.Clinical practice guidelines for intraoperative cell salvage in patients with malignant tumors
Changtai ZHU ; Ling LI ; Zhiqiang LI ; Xinjian WAN ; Shiyao CHEN ; Jian PAN ; Yi ZHANG ; Xiang REN ; Kun HAN ; Feng ZOU ; Aiqing WEN ; Ruiming RONG ; Rong XIA ; Baohua QIAN ; Xin MA
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion 2025;38(2):149-167
Intraoperative cell salvage (IOCS) has been widely applied as an important blood conservation measure in surgical operations. However, there is currently a lack of clinical practice guidelines for the implementation of IOCS in patients with malignant tumors. This report aims to provide clinicians with recommendations on the use of IOCS in patients with malignant tumors based on the review and assessment of the existed evidence. Data were derived from databases such as PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library and Wanfang. The guideline development team formulated recommendations based on the quality of evidence, balance of benefits and harms, patient preferences, and health economic assessments. This study constructed seven major clinical questions. The main conclusions of this guideline are as follows: 1) Compared with no perioperative allogeneic blood transfusion (NPABT), perioperative allogeneic blood transfusion (PABT) leads to a more unfavorable prognosis in cancer patients (Recommended); 2) Compared with the transfusion of allogeneic blood or no transfusion, IOCS does not lead to a more unfavorable prognosis in cancer patients (Recommended); 3) The implementation of IOCS in cancer patients is economically feasible (Recommended); 4) Leukocyte depletion filters (LDF) should be used when implementing IOCS in cancer patients (Strongly Recommended); 5) Irradiation treatment of autologous blood to be reinfused can be used when implementing IOCS in cancer patients (Recommended); 6) A careful assessment of the condition of cancer patients (meeting indications and excluding contraindications) should be conducted before implementing IOCS (Strongly Recommended); 7) Informed consent from cancer patients should be obtained when implementing IOCS, with a thorough pre-assessment of the patient's condition and the likelihood of blood loss, adherence to standardized internally audited management procedures, meeting corresponding conditions, and obtaining corresponding qualifications (Recommended). In brief, current evidence indicates that IOCS can be implemented for some malignant tumor patients who need allogeneic blood transfusion after physician full evaluation, and LDF or irradiation should be used during the implementation process.


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