Objective To explore scientific and accurate prediction methods for the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in the post-pandemic era, and to address modeling challenges caused by abnormal fluctuations in case numbers from 2020 to 2023. Methods The seasonal index was used to pre-process the data. The traditional seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, singular spectrum analysis (SSA)-ARIMA model, ARIMA-Long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model were used to fit the incidence from 2013 to 2023, and the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in 2024 was predicted. The real data collected in 2024 were used as the test set to compare the prediction performance of the models. Results The fitting performance of the constructed models was as follows: the ARIMA model had MAE=107.50 and RMSE=144.53, the SSA-ARIMA model showed MAE=2.84 and RMSE=4.33, the ARIMA-LSTM model achieved MAE=99.46 and RMSE=131.59, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model had MAE=96.35 and RMSE=132.13. In terms of prediction performance, the ARIMA model resulted in MAE=151.64 and RMSE=146.70, the SSA-ARIMA model demonstrated MAE=41.22 and RMSE=57.01, the ARIMA-LSTM model yielded MAE=220.75 and RMSE=257.89, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model recorded MAE=58.83 and RMSE=72.06. Conclusion The SSA-ARIMA model has the best fitting degree and the highest prediction accuracy, and is suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease.

OBJECTIVE To study the improvement effect and mechanism of Dendrobium officinale on skin damage in mice with xeroderma. METHODS The mice were randomly divided into control group， model group， and D. officinale group， with 5 mice in each group. Except for the control group （which only underwent shaving treatment）， the mice in all other groups were induced to develop a xeroderma model using an acetone-ether mixture for five consecutive days. The mice in D. officinale group were treated with 200 μL of D. officinale suspension （0.2 mg/mL） two hours after the first modeling each day. Mice in the control group and the model group were applied with an equal volume of pure water； once a day， until the end of the modeling process. After last medication， skin lesions and pathological morphology of the mice were observed. Immunofluorescence was used to detect the expressions of Filaggrin， Loricrin and Ki67 proteins in skin tissue of the mice. The core pathways through which D. officinale improves skin damage in xeroderma were screened using 16S rRNA sequencing combined with gene ontology and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes （KEGG） enrichment analyses， and subsequent validation was conducted. RESULTS Compared with the control group， the mice in the model group exhibited obvious scratching behavior， with a large amount of scale on the skin， excessive epidermal keratinization， and thickened stratum spinosum. The skin scale score， epidermal thickness， and the expression levels of Ki67， Filaggrin， and Loricrin proteins in the skin tissue were significantly increased/elevated （ P ＜0.05）. Compared with model group， the mice in the D. officinale group exhibited reduced scratching behavior and scaling， along with a mitigated degree of skin keratinization. The aforementioned quantitative indicators were significantly decreased/reduced （ P ＜0.05）. The results of core pathway screening revealed that the KEGG pathways involving differentially expressed genes included signaling pathways such as interleukin-17 （IL-17） and tumor necrosis factor （TNF）. Further validation experim ents found that after intervention with D. officinale ， mRNA expression of downstream effector molecules CCN1， Hbegf， Tnfrsf12a， and Thbs1 genes in skin tissues were all significantly reduced （ P ＜0.05）. CONCLUSIONS D. officinale can repair skin damage in mice with xeroderma， and its mechanism of action is related to restoring the balance of proliferation and differentiation in keratinocytes and down-regulating the mRNA expressions of CCN1， Hbegf， Tnfrsf12a， and Thbs1.

ObjectiveTo establish a new noninvasive， simple， and convenient clinical predictive model by identifying independent predictive factors for rebleeding after endoscopic therapy in cirrhotic patients with esophagogastric variceal bleeding （EGVB）， and to provide a basis for individualized risk assessment and development of clinical intervention strategies. MethodsCirrhotic patients with EGVB who were diagnosed and treated in The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Medical University from September 2018 to October 2023 were enrolled as subjects， and according to whether the patient experienced rebleeding within 1 year after endoscopic therapy， they were divided into rebleeding group with 93 patients and non-rebleeding group with 84 patients. Clinical data were collected and analyzed. The independent samples t-test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between two groups， and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between two groups； the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. A Logistic model was established based on the results of the univariate and multivariate analyses， and the receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve and the area under the ROC curve （AUC） were used to assess the accuracy of the model. R software was used to visualize the model by plotting a nomogram， and the Bootstrap method was used for internal validation of the model. ResultsThe multivariate analysis showed that red blood cell count （RBC）， cholinesterase （ChE）， alkaline phosphatase （ALP）， albumin （Alb）， thrombin time （TT）， portal vein trunk diameter， sequential therapy， and primary prevention were independent predictive factors for rebleeding. Based on the results of the multivariate analysis， a logistic model was established as logit（P）=-0.805-1.978×（RBC）+0.001×（ChE）-0.020×（ALP）-0.314×（Alb）+0.567×（TT）+0.428×（portal vein trunk diameter）-2.303×［sequential therapy （yes=1， no=0）］-2.368×［primary prevention （yes=1， no=0）］. The logistic model （AUC=0.928， 95% confidence interval ［CI］： 0.893—0.964， P<0.001） had a better performance in predicting rebleeding than MELD score （AUC=0.603， 95%CI： 0.520—0.687， P=0.003）， Child-Pugh class （AUC=0.650， 95%CI： 0.578—0.722， P=0.001）， and FIB-4 index （AUC=0.587， 95%CI： 0.503—0.671， P=0.045）. The model had an optimal cut-off value of 0.607， a sensitivity of 0.817， and a specificity of 0.817. Internal validation confirmed that the model had good predictive performance and accuracy. ConclusionSequential therapy， implementation of primary prevention， an increase in RBC， and an increase in Alb are protective factors against rebleeding， while prolonged TT and widened main portal vein diameter are risk factors. The logistic model based on these independent predictive factors can predict rebleeding and thus holds promise for clinical application.

ObjectiveTo investigate the current professional competency among full-time and part-time personnel of the nosocomial infection control administration in Shanghai, so as to provide a scientific basis for future training programmes. MethodsIn December 2024, a questionnaire survey was conducted by the Shanghai Nosocomial Infection Quality Control Center among full-time and part-time personnel of the nosocomial infection control administration across medical institutions at various levels and types in Shanghai using convenience sampling method. The questionnaire consisted of two parts: demographic information and professional competency assessment. The professional competency scale comprised four dimensions: fundamental cognition, basic skills, professional expertise, and personal qualities, totaling 35 items. ResultsA total of 1 179 questionnaires were distributed, with 1 144 valid responses collected, yielding an effective response rate of 97.03%. Statistically significant differences were observed among full-time and part-time personnel of the nosocomial infection control administration in terms of age (t=5.32, P=0.021), professional background (χ²=9.90, P=0.019), educational qualifications (χ²=19.10, P<0.001), professional titles (χ²=12.60, P=0.002), and the levels of medical institutions (χ²=111.08, P<0.001). The scores of full-time personnel of the nosocomial infection control administration in fundamental cognition [92 (82, 99) points] and basic skills [88 (78, 96) points] were significantly higher than those of part-time personnel(Z=-2.21, P=0.027;Z=-2.74, P=0.006). Statistically significant differences were found in fundamental cognition scores between full-time and part-time personnel of the nosocomial infection control administration regarding occupational safety protection, definition of healthcare-associated infection outbreaks, types of drug-resistant bacteria and their prevention and control strategies, and transmission routes of different infectious diseases (all P<0.05). Statistically significant differences were also observed in basic skills scores including proficient use of monitoring platforms, formulation and revision of standard operating procedures (SOPs), independent completion of targeted surveillance, guidance on basic infection control skills, guidance for key departments, and follow-up of personnel with occupational exposure (all P<0.05). However, no statistically significant differences were found in scores of professional knowledge and personal qualities (P>0.05). ConclusionThere are certain differences in professional competency between full-time and part-time personnel of the nosocomial infection control administration in Shanghai in terms of fundamental cognition and basic skills. Part-time personnel can effectively improve their professional competency through systematic training on basic infection control knowledge and practical skills, thereby comprehensively enhancing the overall quality of the nosocomial infection administration team.

Obesity has become one of the important factors affecting the entire management process of liver transplantation. Its impact is not only reflected in the increased risk of liver steatosis and ischemia-reperfusion injury in the donor, but also involves the increased technical difficulty during the perioperative period for the recipient, the increase in postoperative metabolic complications and poorer long-term prognosis. This article, based on recent relevant studies, reviews aspects such as the utilization of obese donors, the characteristics of adult and pediatric recipients, pre-transplant risk assessment and weight loss intervention, and post-transplant weight and metabolic management. Current evidence suggests that simply judging transplantation risks based on body mass index has limitations. Analysis of body composition, assessment of cardiovascular function and identification of sarcopenic obesity are more clinically valuable. For obese liver transplant recipients, in a multidisciplinary collaboration framework, emphasis should be placed on individualized screening, perioperative optimization and long-term follow-up management to improve the outcomes of the graft and the recipient.

ObjectiveTo investigate whether there exists an independent association beyond shared risk factors between colorectal space-occupying lesions and metabolic associated fatty liver disease （MAFLD）， and to provide new ideas for early identification of colorectal space-occupying lesions in the MAFLD population. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for 12 252 patients who were hospitalized in The First Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University （Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital） and underwent both colonoscopy and abdominal imaging （abdominal ultrasound， magnetic resonance imaging， or computed tomography） from September 1， 2018 to August 31， 2023. According to colonoscopy findings， the patients were divided into colorectal space-occupying lesion group with 6 545 patients and non-colorectal space-occupying lesion group with 5 707 patients. Baseline data were compared between the two groups. The univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were used to identify influencing factors for colorectal space-occupying lesions， and further analysis was performed to investigate the association of MAFLD and liver fibrosis （assessed by fibrosis-4 ［FIB-4］， nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score ［NFS］， and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index） with colorectal space-occupying lesions. The Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of continuous data with skewed distribution between groups， and the chi-square test or the Fisher’s exact test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups. ResultsThe univariate analysis showed that compared with the non-colorectal space-occupying lesion group， the colorectal space-occupying lesion group had significantly higher age （Z=-95.628， P<0.001）， proportion of male patients （χ²=406.910， P<0.001）， body weight （Z=-24.928， P<0.001）， body mass index （BMI） （Z=-21.367， P<0.001）， diastolic blood pressure （Z=-15.527， P<0.001）， systolic blood pressure （Z=-16.965， P<0.001）， proportion of patients with history of coronary heart disease （χ²=28.112， P<0.001）/hypertension （χ²=152.993， P<0.001）/diabetes （χ²=52.175， P<0.001）/cerebral infarction （χ²=14.097， P<0.001）， white blood cell count （WBC） （Z=-12.801， P<0.001）， hemoglobin （HGB） （Z=-19.258， P<0.001）， aspartate aminotransferase （Z=-6.673， P=0.001）， alanine aminotransferase （Z=-10.375， P<0.001）， alkaline phosphatase （Z=-10.496， P<0.001）， gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase （GGT） （Z=-18.893， P<0.001）， blood urea nitrogen （Z=-13.291， P<0.001）， creatinine （Z=-16.798， P<0.001）， uric acid （Z=-16.822， P<0.001）， triglyceride （Z=-10.186， P<0.001）， and fasting blood glucose （Z=-15.761， P<0.001）. The multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age （odds ratio ［OR］=1.052， 95% confidence interval ［CI］： 1.045 — 1.057， P<0.001）， sex （OR=0.523， 95%CI： 0.466 — 0.587， P<0.001）， BMI （OR=1.031， 95%CI： 1.018 — 1.046， P<0.001）， history of hypertension （OR=1.140， 95%CI： 1.019 — 1.276， P=0.022）， WBC （OR=1.057， 95%CI： 1.028 — 1.087， P<0.001）， GGT （OR=1.001， 95%CI： 1.000 — 1.002， P=0.021）， Alb （OR=0.982， 95%CI： 0.969 — 0.995， P=0.008）， and HGB （OR=1.004， 95%CI： 1.001 — 1.008， P=0.019） were independent influencing factors for colorectal space-occupying lesions. In the MAFLD population， after adjustment for age， sex， BMI， history of hypertension， WBC， HGB， GGT， and Alb， intermediate-to-high risk of advanced liver fibrosis assessed by FIB-4 and NFS was still an influencing factor for colorectal space-occupying lesions （FIB-4： OR=1.457， 95%CI： 1.176 — 1.810， P<0.05； NFS： OR=1.499， 95%CI： 1.244 — 1.809， P<0.05）. Liver fibrosis degree based on FIB-4 was not significantly associated with the pathological type， location， size， or number of colorectal space-occupying lesions （all P>0.05）. While intermediate-to-high risk of advanced liver fibrosis based on NFS was not associated with pathological type， location， or size， it might be associated with the number of lesions （χ²=9.770， P<0.05）. ConclusionAge， sex， BMI， history of hypertension， WBC， HGB， GGT， and Alb are independent influencing factors for colorectal space-occupying lesions. Intermediate-to-high risk of advanced liver fibrosis assessed by FIB-4 or NFS is independently associated with colorectal space-occupying lesions， and liver fibrosis assessed by NFS might be associated with the increase in the number of lesions.

[Purpose]To analyze the diagnostic yield of quantitative fecal immunochemical test(FIT)at different cut-offs in colorectal cancer(CRC)screening.[Methods]The sequential screening method was adapted in Jiashan CRC screening program for local residents aged 40～74 years old,which included a quantitative FIT and high-risk factor questionnaire for primary screening and subsequent colonoscopy for the diagnostic screening.Subjects who participated in quantitative FIT were included in this study between September,2021 and August,2023.The positive predictive values(PPVs)for colorectal neoplasms were calculated at the cut-offs of 100,120,140,160,180 and 200 ng/mL of FIT.The Cochran-Armitage trend test was performed to compare the trend of PPVs at different cut-offs.The effects of different starting age and FIT cut-offs on requirement of colonoscopy and advanced neoplasia detection were assessed.[Results]A total of 58 256 individuals completed the quantitative FIT,and 3 106 had fecal hemoglobin concentrations＞100 ng/mL,among whom 2 186 underwent colonoscopic examination with a compliance rate of 70.38％.The colonoscopy detected 588 cases of non-advanced adenomas and 355 cases of advanced neoplasms(AN),in-cluding 30 cases of CRC and 325 cases of advanced adenomas.Progressively increasing the cut-off showed a decrease in PPVs of non-advanced adenomas and an increase of AN.The ratio of the rate of reduced requirement of colonoscopy to the missed rate of the progressive lesions was the smallest when the screening start age was 45 years old and the positive FIT threshold was set at 100 ng/mL.[Conclusion]There were significant differences in the diagnostic yield at different cut-offs of FIT.Increasing the cut-offs of FIT will elevate PPVs for the advanced neoplasms.

Objective:To investigate lipid metabolism gene mutations and pathogenicity of hypertriglyceridemia acute pancreatitis (HTG-AP) patients.Methods:Clinical data of 495 HTG-AP patients admitted from June 2018 to June 2020 in the center for severe acute pancreatitis of Eastern Theater General Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. Whole-exome sequencing and mutation verification were performed by next-generation sequencing technology and Sanger sequencing. The pathogenicity of gene mutation was analyzed by population mutation ratio, pathogenicity prediction software, conservation scoring software, protein structure prediction, and in vitro experiments. Results:The mutation ratio of lipid metabolism-related genes, namely LPL, APOA5, LMF1, GPIHBP1, and APOC2, were 14.81%, 55.78%, 43.61%, 1.62%, and 0.61%, respectively. Among them, 44 heterozygous mutations in LPL gene were detected including 36 missense mutations, 5 nonsense mutations and 3 frameshift mutations, which were all rarely carried in single patient. Six HTG-AP patients carried the LPL gene heterozygous mutation c.835C>G (p.Leu279Val). The mean level of serum triglyceride at the onset of HTG-AP was 27.4 mmol/L. All of them had a history of recurrent HTG-AP, and most of them had severe acute pancreatitis. The serum LPL concentration and activity were lower than the normal level. The pathogenicity analysis results suggested that the LPL p.Leu279Val was a rare, highly possible pathogenic and highly conserved gene mutation. The in vitro results showed that the LPL p.Leu279Val could significantly reduce the synthesis and secretion ability of LPL as well as its enzymatic activity. Conclusions:The mutation ratio of lipid metabolism-related genes, including LPL, APOA5, LMF1, GPIHBP1, and APOC2, are relatively high in the HTG-AP patients. The LPL p.Leu279Val is a rare and highly possible pathogenic gene mutation, which may lead to recurrent episodes of HTG-AP.

Objective:To investigate the application in evaluating the course and the clinical effects of serum cytokines interleukin (IL)-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-10, IL-17, tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), and interferon-γ (IFN-γ) levels, as well as neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in patients with brucellosis.Methods:Using case-control method, from February 2023 to March 2024, 274 confirmed brucellosis patients [divided into acute and chronic groups ( n = 165, 109) according to the course of the disease] and 70 healthy individuals (control group) were selected at Beidahuang Group General Hospital for serum cytokines detection using cytometric bead array (CBA) method. Blood routine test, serum agglutination test (SAT) and blood culture were performed at the same time, and NLR and PLR were calculated. Cytokine levels, NLR, and PLR were compared in patients with different disease duration, with or without complications, with different SAT titers [high ( > 1 ∶ 100) and low (≤1 ∶ 100)], and with different blood culture results, and the effects of each indicator on the course of brucellosis were analyzed by logistic regression. Results:The levels of IL-2, IL-6, IL-10, IL-17, TNF-α and IFN-γ in the acute group [ M ( Q1, Q3): 0.32 (0.15, 0.70), 18.97 (10.70, 36.86), 2.54 (1.49, 4.36), 1.41 (0.38, 3.05), 1.31 (0.77, 2.33), 11.60 (2.30, 36.75) ng/L] were higher than those in the chronic group [0.18 (0.06, 0.43), 1.68 (0.75, 5.74), 0.88 (0.40, 1.93), 0.29 (0.09, 0.87), 0.59 (0.31, 1.07), 0.72 (0.33, 1.42) ng/L] and control group [0.10 (0.05, 0.30), 1.52 (0.09, 2.80), 0.72 (0.35, 1.16), 0.08 (0.03, 0.20), 0.55 (0.20, 0.96), 0.68 (0.41, 1.25) ng/L, P < 0.05]. The IFN-γ level in the group with complications of brucellosis was lower than that in the group without complications, while the NLR and PLR were higher than those in the group without complications ( P < 0.05). The levels of IL-6, IL-17, TNF-α, and IFN-γ in the high titer group were higher than those in the low titer group, and the NLR was lower than that in the low titer group ( P < 0.05). The levels of IFN-γ and TNF-α of blood culture positive patients in the acute group were higher than those of blood culture negative patients ( P < 0.05). Univariate analysis showed that all 7 cytokines could affect the course of brucellosis ( P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that IL-6, TNF-α, and IFN-γ were independent influencing factors of the course of brucellosis [ OR (95% CI) = 0.87 (0.83, 0.91), 0.55 (0.32, 0.97), 0.80 (0.72, 0.88), P < 0.05]. Conclusions:The levels of cytokines IL-2, IL-6, IL-10, IL-17, TNF-α, and IFN-γ can reflect the course progression of brucellosis patients, IL-6, IFN-γ and TNF-α can also serve as independent influencing factors for brucellosis progression. NLR and PLR may become inflammatory markers for predicting Brucella infection.

To compare and analyze the clinical manifestations,laboratory characteristics,imaging findings,and treatment outcomes of patients with acute and chronic brucellosis,a retrospective analysis was conducted on 258 patients with brucellosis(202 in the acute group and 56 in the chronic group)hospitalized in Xinkang Hospital in Dalad Banner,Ordos City,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,from November 2023 to November 2024.General data,epidemiological characteristics,clinical presentations,laboratory test results,imaging findings,treatment outcomes,and prognosis were collected.The incidences of fever(51.5%vs 7.1%),fatigue(30.2%vs 12.5%),joint pain(42.9%vs 16.1%),and muscle pain(9.9%vs.1.8%)were significantly higher in the acute phase group(all P<0.05).The incidence of osteoarthritis complications was higher in the chronic brucellosis group(51.8%vs 8.9%,χ2=75.697,P<0.01).Univariate ANOVA analysisshowed that the Serum Agglutination Tests(SAT),alanine aminotransferase(ALT),aspartate aminotransferase(AST),total bilirubin(TBIL),creatinine(CRE),C-reactive protein(CRP),erythrocyte sedimentation rate(ESR),and bone destructionexhibited statistically significant differences between the acute and chronic phases of brucellosis(all P<0.05).Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that abnormal ALT(OR=14.18,95%CI:1.11-181.72;P=0.041)and bone destruction(OR=0.16,95%CI:0.04-0.63;P=0.009)were associated with chronic brucellosis.After treatment,all patients experienced have symptom relief in varying degrees,with 157 patients(60.9%)cured and 101 patients(39.1%)symptomatic improved(P<0.01).In conclusion,the incidences of fever,fatigue,and joint pain in patients during the acute phase is significantly higher than that those in patients during the chronic phase,while the incidence of osteoarthritis complications is higher in chronic phase patients.The incidences of abnormal SAT,ALT,AST,TBIL,CRE,CRP,and ESR,and bone destruction varies at different stages of brucellosis.Of those,abnormal ALT and bone destruction show a stronger association with,which can assist the clinical staging of brucellosis.