1.Establishment of a new predictive model for esophagogastric variceal rebleeding in liver cirrhosis based on clinical features
Wen GUO ; Xuyulin YANG ; Run GAO ; Yaxin CHEN ; Kun YIN ; Qian LI ; Manli CUI ; Mingxin ZHANG
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2026;42(1):101-110
ObjectiveTo establish a new noninvasive, simple, and convenient clinical predictive model by identifying independent predictive factors for rebleeding after endoscopic therapy in cirrhotic patients with esophagogastric variceal bleeding (EGVB), and to provide a basis for individualized risk assessment and development of clinical intervention strategies. MethodsCirrhotic patients with EGVB who were diagnosed and treated in The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Medical University from September 2018 to October 2023 were enrolled as subjects, and according to whether the patient experienced rebleeding within 1 year after endoscopic therapy, they were divided into rebleeding group with 93 patients and non-rebleeding group with 84 patients. Clinical data were collected and analyzed. The independent samples t-test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between two groups, and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between two groups; the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. A Logistic model was established based on the results of the univariate and multivariate analyses, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. R software was used to visualize the model by plotting a nomogram, and the Bootstrap method was used for internal validation of the model. ResultsThe multivariate analysis showed that red blood cell count (RBC), cholinesterase (ChE), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), albumin (Alb), thrombin time (TT), portal vein trunk diameter, sequential therapy, and primary prevention were independent predictive factors for rebleeding. Based on the results of the multivariate analysis, a logistic model was established as logit(P)=-0.805-1.978×(RBC)+0.001×(ChE)-0.020×(ALP)-0.314×(Alb)+0.567×(TT)+0.428×(portal vein trunk diameter)-2.303×[sequential therapy (yes=1, no=0)]-2.368×[primary prevention (yes=1, no=0)]. The logistic model (AUC=0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.893—0.964, P<0.001) had a better performance in predicting rebleeding than MELD score (AUC=0.603, 95%CI: 0.520—0.687, P=0.003), Child-Pugh class (AUC=0.650, 95%CI: 0.578—0.722, P=0.001), and FIB-4 index (AUC=0.587, 95%CI: 0.503—0.671, P=0.045). The model had an optimal cut-off value of 0.607, a sensitivity of 0.817, and a specificity of 0.817. Internal validation confirmed that the model had good predictive performance and accuracy. ConclusionSequential therapy, implementation of primary prevention, an increase in RBC, and an increase in Alb are protective factors against rebleeding, while prolonged TT and widened main portal vein diameter are risk factors. The logistic model based on these independent predictive factors can predict rebleeding and thus holds promise for clinical application.
2.Application of optimized combination prediction model in the prediction of hand, foot and mouth disease
Weijie TIAN ; Qian GAO ; Kun YANG ; Zhirong ZHAO ; Jian CHEN
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2026;37(1):58-62
Objective To explore scientific and accurate prediction methods for the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in the post-pandemic era, and to address modeling challenges caused by abnormal fluctuations in case numbers from 2020 to 2023. Methods The seasonal index was used to pre-process the data. The traditional seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, singular spectrum analysis (SSA)-ARIMA model, ARIMA-Long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model were used to fit the incidence from 2013 to 2023, and the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in 2024 was predicted. The real data collected in 2024 were used as the test set to compare the prediction performance of the models. Results The fitting performance of the constructed models was as follows: the ARIMA model had MAE=107.50 and RMSE=144.53, the SSA-ARIMA model showed MAE=2.84 and RMSE=4.33, the ARIMA-LSTM model achieved MAE=99.46 and RMSE=131.59, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model had MAE=96.35 and RMSE=132.13. In terms of prediction performance, the ARIMA model resulted in MAE=151.64 and RMSE=146.70, the SSA-ARIMA model demonstrated MAE=41.22 and RMSE=57.01, the ARIMA-LSTM model yielded MAE=220.75 and RMSE=257.89, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model recorded MAE=58.83 and RMSE=72.06. Conclusion The SSA-ARIMA model has the best fitting degree and the highest prediction accuracy, and is suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease.
3.Improvement effect and mechanism of Dendrobium officinale on skin damage in mice with xeroderma
Penglong YU ; Jianqing DENG ; Shanhong SUN ; Kun GAO ; Jianghua HU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(7):914-919
OBJECTIVE To study the improvement effect and mechanism of Dendrobium officinale on skin damage in mice with xeroderma. METHODS The mice were randomly divided into control group, model group, and D. officinale group, with 5 mice in each group. Except for the control group (which only underwent shaving treatment), the mice in all other groups were induced to develop a xeroderma model using an acetone-ether mixture for five consecutive days. The mice in D. officinale group were treated with 200 μL of D. officinale suspension (0.2 mg/mL) two hours after the first modeling each day. Mice in the control group and the model group were applied with an equal volume of pure water; once a day, until the end of the modeling process. After last medication, skin lesions and pathological morphology of the mice were observed. Immunofluorescence was used to detect the expressions of Filaggrin, Loricrin and Ki67 proteins in skin tissue of the mice. The core pathways through which D. officinale improves skin damage in xeroderma were screened using 16S rRNA sequencing combined with gene ontology and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) enrichment analyses, and subsequent validation was conducted. RESULTS Compared with the control group, the mice in the model group exhibited obvious scratching behavior, with a large amount of scale on the skin, excessive epidermal keratinization, and thickened stratum spinosum. The skin scale score, epidermal thickness, and the expression levels of Ki67, Filaggrin, and Loricrin proteins in the skin tissue were significantly increased/elevated ( P <0.05). Compared with model group, the mice in the D. officinale group exhibited reduced scratching behavior and scaling, along with a mitigated degree of skin keratinization. The aforementioned quantitative indicators were significantly decreased/reduced ( P <0.05). The results of core pathway screening revealed that the KEGG pathways involving differentially expressed genes included signaling pathways such as interleukin-17 (IL-17) and tumor necrosis factor (TNF). Further validation experim ents found that after intervention with D. officinale , mRNA expression of downstream effector molecules CCN1, Hbegf, Tnfrsf12a, and Thbs1 genes in skin tissues were all significantly reduced ( P <0.05). CONCLUSIONS D. officinale can repair skin damage in mice with xeroderma, and its mechanism of action is related to restoring the balance of proliferation and differentiation in keratinocytes and down-regulating the mRNA expressions of CCN1, Hbegf, Tnfrsf12a, and Thbs1.
4.Discussion on the Application of Warm-Yang Method in Polycystic Ovary Syndrome Infertility
Pengxuan YAN ; Haiyan ZHANG ; Yukun ZHAO ; Yabei GAO ; Kun LI ; Jingchun ZHANG ; Yuping ZHAO ; Zixiao WEI
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;66(3):312-316
It is believed that there is a pathogenesis of yang deficiency in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) infertility, and it is concluded that warm-yang method has a better effect in improving endometrial abnormality, enhancing the quality of follicles, correcting endocrine disorders, and resolving or alleviating clinical symptoms in PCOS infertility. Based on Yanghe Decoction (阳和汤), a representative traditional Chinese medicine decoction for warming yang, Yanghe Xiaonang Decoction (阳和消囊汤) was formulated, combining with warm medicinals according to symptoms, and aerobic exercise was also advocated to help generate and develop yang qi, in order to provide ideas for clinical treatments.
5.Diagnosis and treatment of 281 elderly patients with pulmonary ground-glass opacity: A retrospective study in a single center
Lei SU ; Yi ZHANG ; Yan GAO ; Bing WEI ; Tengteng WANG ; Yuanbo LI ; Kun QIAN ; Peilong ZHANG ; Leiming WANG ; Xiuqin WEI
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2025;32(01):94-99
Objective To explore the diagnosis and treatment strategies for elderly patients with ground-glass opacity (GGO). Methods The imaging features and postoperative pathological findings of the elderly patients with pulmonary GGO receiving surgery in our hospital from 2017 to 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were divided into an elderly patient group and a non-elderly patient group based on their age. Results Finally 575 patients were included in the study. There were 281 elderly patients, including 83 males and 198 females, with an average age of (67.0±5.3) years. There were 294 non-elderly patients, including 88 males and 206 females, with an average age of (49.1±7.3) years. Compared with the non-elderly patients, elderly GGO patients showed the following distinct clinical features: long observation time for lesions (P=0.001), high proportion of rough edges of GGO (P<0.001), significant pleural signs (P<0.001) and bronchial signs (P<0.001), and high proportion of type Ⅱ-Ⅳ GGO (P<0.001), lobectomy type (P=0.013), and invasive lesions reported in postoperative pathology (P<0.001). There was no statistical difference in the average hospital stay between the two groups (P=0.106). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that GGO diameter and GGO type were the main factors affecting the operation. Observation time, GGO diameter, GGO type and pleural signs were the main influencing factors for postoperative pathological infiltrative lesions. The cut-off value of GGO diameter in predicting infiltrating lesions was 10.5 mm in the elderly patients group. Conclusion The size and type of GGO are important factors in predicting invasive lesions and selecting surgical methods. Elderly patients with radiographic manifestations of type Ⅱ-Ⅳ GGO lesions with a diameter greater than 10.5 mm should be closely followed up.
6.Atlantodentoplasty using the anterior retropharyngeal approach for treating irreducible atlantoaxial dislocation with atlantodental bony obstruction: a retrospective study
Jia SHAO ; Yun Peng HAN ; Yan Zheng GAO ; Kun GAO ; Ke Zheng MAO ; Xiu Ru ZHANG
Asian Spine Journal 2025;19(1):54-63
Methods:
The clinical data of 26 patients diagnosed with irreducible atlantoaxial dislocation complicated by atlantodental bony obstruction were analyzed retrospectively. All patients underwent anterior retropharyngeal atlantodentoplasty, followed by posterior occipitocervical fusion. Details including surgical duration and blood loss volume were recorded. Radiographic data such as the anterior atlantodental interval, O–C2 angle, space available for the cord, clivus–canal angle, and cervical medullary angle, and clinical data including the Japanese Orthopedic Association (JOA) score were assessed. The fusion time of the grafted bone and the development of complications were examined.
Results:
In patients undergoing anterior retropharyngeal atlantodentoplasty, the surgical duration and blood loss volume were 120.1±16.4 minutes and 100.6±33.5 mL, respectively. The anterior atlantodental interval decreased significantly after the surgery (p <0.001). The O–C2 angle, space available for the cord, clivus–canal angle, and cervical medullary angle increased significantly after the surgery (p <0.001). The JOA score during the latest follow-up significantly increased compared with that before the surgery (p <0.001). The improvement rate of the JOA score was 80.8%±18.1%. The fusion time of the grafted bone was 3–8 months, with an average of 5.7±1.5 months. In total, 11 patients presented with postoperative dysphagia and three with irritating cough. However, none of them exhibited other major complications.
Conclusions
Anterior retropharyngeal atlantodentoplasty can anatomically reduce the atlantoaxial joint with a satisfactory clinical outcome in patients with irreducible atlantoaxial dislocation with atlantodental bony obstruction.
7.Clinical efficacy analysis of PACS preoperative planning in percutaneous vertebroplasty for the treatment of osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures in the elderly.
Chen CHEN ; Da-Wei LI ; Zhuang-Tian MA ; Kun-Chi HUA ; Yao LI ; Yan-Qing GAO ; Chun-Lie QIU
China Journal of Orthopaedics and Traumatology 2025;38(2):114-118
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the clinical effect of personalized puncture planning before surgery using Picture Archiving and Communication System (PACS) in the treatment of osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures in the elderly.
METHODS:
A total of 69 elderly patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures treated by percutaneous vertebroplasty from January 2020 20 to December 2021 with more than 1 year of follow-up were analyzed retrospectively. Thirty-four patients were individualized for preoperative planning with PACS software (observation group), including 8 males and 26 females, with a mean age of (73.30±7.96) years old;and 35 patients were treated with conventional treatment (control group), including 7 males and 28 females, with a mean age of (77.30±7.84) years old. The operation time, the amount of cement injection, cement leakage rate, bone watertight diffusion and refracture within 1 year between two groups were observed and compared. The Cobb's angle, low back pain visual analogue scale(VAS) and the modified Oswsetry disability indexes(ODI) before surgery and 1 day, 1 year after surgery were compared between two groups.
RESULTS:
Both groups successfully completed the operation without serious surgical complications, 2 refractures occurred in the control group. The operation time in the observation group was(41.9±11.9) min, which was less than that in the control group (52.7±13.6) min (P<0.05). There was no significant difference in the cement injection volume between two groups (P>0.05). Two cases of cement leakage in the observation group was less than 8 in the control group (P<0.05). The bone cement distribution index of two groups had significant difference(P<0.05). There were no significant differences between two groups in Cobb's angle of the injured vertebras and ODI before and 1 day after surgery(P>0.05), however, the comparative differences were statistically significant at 1 year after surgery(P<0.05). There was no significant difference in the VAS between two groups at each time period(P>0.05).
CONCLUSION
Using the PACS software to plan personalized puncture scheme can reduce the operation time, reduce the cement leakage rate, improve the diffusion of bone cement and longer maintain the postoperative form of vertebral body and the functional state of patients' lumbar back.
Humans
;
Male
;
Female
;
Aged
;
Vertebroplasty/methods*
;
Fractures, Compression/diagnostic imaging*
;
Spinal Fractures/diagnostic imaging*
;
Osteoporotic Fractures/diagnostic imaging*
;
Aged, 80 and over
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Radiology Information Systems
8.Atlantodentoplasty using the anterior retropharyngeal approach for treating irreducible atlantoaxial dislocation with atlantodental bony obstruction: a retrospective study
Jia SHAO ; Yun Peng HAN ; Yan Zheng GAO ; Kun GAO ; Ke Zheng MAO ; Xiu Ru ZHANG
Asian Spine Journal 2025;19(1):54-63
Methods:
The clinical data of 26 patients diagnosed with irreducible atlantoaxial dislocation complicated by atlantodental bony obstruction were analyzed retrospectively. All patients underwent anterior retropharyngeal atlantodentoplasty, followed by posterior occipitocervical fusion. Details including surgical duration and blood loss volume were recorded. Radiographic data such as the anterior atlantodental interval, O–C2 angle, space available for the cord, clivus–canal angle, and cervical medullary angle, and clinical data including the Japanese Orthopedic Association (JOA) score were assessed. The fusion time of the grafted bone and the development of complications were examined.
Results:
In patients undergoing anterior retropharyngeal atlantodentoplasty, the surgical duration and blood loss volume were 120.1±16.4 minutes and 100.6±33.5 mL, respectively. The anterior atlantodental interval decreased significantly after the surgery (p <0.001). The O–C2 angle, space available for the cord, clivus–canal angle, and cervical medullary angle increased significantly after the surgery (p <0.001). The JOA score during the latest follow-up significantly increased compared with that before the surgery (p <0.001). The improvement rate of the JOA score was 80.8%±18.1%. The fusion time of the grafted bone was 3–8 months, with an average of 5.7±1.5 months. In total, 11 patients presented with postoperative dysphagia and three with irritating cough. However, none of them exhibited other major complications.
Conclusions
Anterior retropharyngeal atlantodentoplasty can anatomically reduce the atlantoaxial joint with a satisfactory clinical outcome in patients with irreducible atlantoaxial dislocation with atlantodental bony obstruction.
9.Atlantodentoplasty using the anterior retropharyngeal approach for treating irreducible atlantoaxial dislocation with atlantodental bony obstruction: a retrospective study
Jia SHAO ; Yun Peng HAN ; Yan Zheng GAO ; Kun GAO ; Ke Zheng MAO ; Xiu Ru ZHANG
Asian Spine Journal 2025;19(1):54-63
Methods:
The clinical data of 26 patients diagnosed with irreducible atlantoaxial dislocation complicated by atlantodental bony obstruction were analyzed retrospectively. All patients underwent anterior retropharyngeal atlantodentoplasty, followed by posterior occipitocervical fusion. Details including surgical duration and blood loss volume were recorded. Radiographic data such as the anterior atlantodental interval, O–C2 angle, space available for the cord, clivus–canal angle, and cervical medullary angle, and clinical data including the Japanese Orthopedic Association (JOA) score were assessed. The fusion time of the grafted bone and the development of complications were examined.
Results:
In patients undergoing anterior retropharyngeal atlantodentoplasty, the surgical duration and blood loss volume were 120.1±16.4 minutes and 100.6±33.5 mL, respectively. The anterior atlantodental interval decreased significantly after the surgery (p <0.001). The O–C2 angle, space available for the cord, clivus–canal angle, and cervical medullary angle increased significantly after the surgery (p <0.001). The JOA score during the latest follow-up significantly increased compared with that before the surgery (p <0.001). The improvement rate of the JOA score was 80.8%±18.1%. The fusion time of the grafted bone was 3–8 months, with an average of 5.7±1.5 months. In total, 11 patients presented with postoperative dysphagia and three with irritating cough. However, none of them exhibited other major complications.
Conclusions
Anterior retropharyngeal atlantodentoplasty can anatomically reduce the atlantoaxial joint with a satisfactory clinical outcome in patients with irreducible atlantoaxial dislocation with atlantodental bony obstruction.
10.Regulatory effects of moxibustion at "Guanyuan" (CV4) on extragonadal estrogen and estrogen receptors in ovariectomized rats.
Qingchen ZHOU ; Xinyan GAO ; Kun LIU ; Bing ZHU
Chinese Acupuncture & Moxibustion 2025;45(12):1770-1776
OBJECTIVE:
To observe the regulatory effects of moxibustion at "Guanyuan" (CV4) on the synthesis of extragonadal estradiol (E2) and the expression of estrogen receptor (ER) in ovariectomized rats, aiming to explore the mechanism of moxibustion treatment for perimenopausal syndrome.
METHODS:
Forty-eight SD female rats of SPF grade were randomly divided into a sham-operation group, a model group and a moxibustion group, with 16 rats in each group. The model group and the moxibustion group underwent bilateral ovariectomy by the back incision method. Ten days after surgery, moxibustion was applied at "Guanyuan" (CV4) in the moxibustion group, 30 min each time, once a day for 10 days. After intervention, in the 3 groups, the body mass and uterus weight were measured; the serum levels of follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinizing hormone (LH) and E2, as well as the skin and hypothalamus levels of E2 were detected by ELISA; the mRNA expression of aromatase (P450arom) in the skin and hypothalamus was detected by real-time PCR; the expression of ERα and ERβ in the hypothalamus, skin, and uterus was observed by immunofluorescence staining, and the density of positive cells was calculated using the Aipathwell digital pathology image analysis software.
RESULTS:
Compared with the sham-operation group, the body mass was increased (P<0.01) and the uterus weight was decreased (P<0.001) in the model group. Compared with the model group, the body mass was decreased in the moxibustion group (P<0.01). Compared with the sham-operation group, in the model group, the serum, hypothalamus and skin levels of E2 were decreased (P<0.01, P<0.05), while the serum levels of FSH and LH were increased (P<0.01); the expression of ERα and ERβ in the skin, hypothalamus and uterus was decreased (P<0.05, P<0.001). Compared with the model group, in the moxibustion group, the serum levels of E2 and LH, as well as the hypothalamus and skin levels of E2 were increased (P<0.05, P<0.01); the mRNA expression of P450arom, as well as the expression of ERα and ERβ in the skin and hypothalamus were increased (P<0.05).
CONCLUSION
Moxibustion at "Guanyuan" (CV4) reduces the body mass of ovariectomized rats by enhancing the synthesis of extragonadal E2 and increasing the expression of ER in the skin and hypothalamus, yet it does not alleviate uterine atrophy.
Animals
;
Female
;
Moxibustion
;
Rats
;
Ovariectomy
;
Acupuncture Points
;
Rats, Sprague-Dawley
;
Humans
;
Receptors, Estrogen/genetics*
;
Estrogens/metabolism*
;
Estradiol/metabolism*
;
Hypothalamus/metabolism*
;
Follicle Stimulating Hormone/blood*
;
Aromatase/genetics*
;
Luteinizing Hormone/blood*
;
Skin/metabolism*


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