1.Establishment of a new predictive model for esophagogastric variceal rebleeding in liver cirrhosis based on clinical features
Wen GUO ; Xuyulin YANG ; Run GAO ; Yaxin CHEN ; Kun YIN ; Qian LI ; Manli CUI ; Mingxin ZHANG
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2026;42(1):101-110
ObjectiveTo establish a new noninvasive, simple, and convenient clinical predictive model by identifying independent predictive factors for rebleeding after endoscopic therapy in cirrhotic patients with esophagogastric variceal bleeding (EGVB), and to provide a basis for individualized risk assessment and development of clinical intervention strategies. MethodsCirrhotic patients with EGVB who were diagnosed and treated in The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Medical University from September 2018 to October 2023 were enrolled as subjects, and according to whether the patient experienced rebleeding within 1 year after endoscopic therapy, they were divided into rebleeding group with 93 patients and non-rebleeding group with 84 patients. Clinical data were collected and analyzed. The independent samples t-test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between two groups, and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between two groups; the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. A Logistic model was established based on the results of the univariate and multivariate analyses, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. R software was used to visualize the model by plotting a nomogram, and the Bootstrap method was used for internal validation of the model. ResultsThe multivariate analysis showed that red blood cell count (RBC), cholinesterase (ChE), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), albumin (Alb), thrombin time (TT), portal vein trunk diameter, sequential therapy, and primary prevention were independent predictive factors for rebleeding. Based on the results of the multivariate analysis, a logistic model was established as logit(P)=-0.805-1.978×(RBC)+0.001×(ChE)-0.020×(ALP)-0.314×(Alb)+0.567×(TT)+0.428×(portal vein trunk diameter)-2.303×[sequential therapy (yes=1, no=0)]-2.368×[primary prevention (yes=1, no=0)]. The logistic model (AUC=0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.893—0.964, P<0.001) had a better performance in predicting rebleeding than MELD score (AUC=0.603, 95%CI: 0.520—0.687, P=0.003), Child-Pugh class (AUC=0.650, 95%CI: 0.578—0.722, P=0.001), and FIB-4 index (AUC=0.587, 95%CI: 0.503—0.671, P=0.045). The model had an optimal cut-off value of 0.607, a sensitivity of 0.817, and a specificity of 0.817. Internal validation confirmed that the model had good predictive performance and accuracy. ConclusionSequential therapy, implementation of primary prevention, an increase in RBC, and an increase in Alb are protective factors against rebleeding, while prolonged TT and widened main portal vein diameter are risk factors. The logistic model based on these independent predictive factors can predict rebleeding and thus holds promise for clinical application.
2.Application of optimized combination prediction model in the prediction of hand, foot and mouth disease
Weijie TIAN ; Qian GAO ; Kun YANG ; Zhirong ZHAO ; Jian CHEN
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2026;37(1):58-62
Objective To explore scientific and accurate prediction methods for the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in the post-pandemic era, and to address modeling challenges caused by abnormal fluctuations in case numbers from 2020 to 2023. Methods The seasonal index was used to pre-process the data. The traditional seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, singular spectrum analysis (SSA)-ARIMA model, ARIMA-Long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model were used to fit the incidence from 2013 to 2023, and the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in 2024 was predicted. The real data collected in 2024 were used as the test set to compare the prediction performance of the models. Results The fitting performance of the constructed models was as follows: the ARIMA model had MAE=107.50 and RMSE=144.53, the SSA-ARIMA model showed MAE=2.84 and RMSE=4.33, the ARIMA-LSTM model achieved MAE=99.46 and RMSE=131.59, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model had MAE=96.35 and RMSE=132.13. In terms of prediction performance, the ARIMA model resulted in MAE=151.64 and RMSE=146.70, the SSA-ARIMA model demonstrated MAE=41.22 and RMSE=57.01, the ARIMA-LSTM model yielded MAE=220.75 and RMSE=257.89, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model recorded MAE=58.83 and RMSE=72.06. Conclusion The SSA-ARIMA model has the best fitting degree and the highest prediction accuracy, and is suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease.
3.Improvement effect and mechanism of Dendrobium officinale on skin damage in mice with xeroderma
Penglong YU ; Jianqing DENG ; Shanhong SUN ; Kun GAO ; Jianghua HU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(7):914-919
OBJECTIVE To study the improvement effect and mechanism of Dendrobium officinale on skin damage in mice with xeroderma. METHODS The mice were randomly divided into control group, model group, and D. officinale group, with 5 mice in each group. Except for the control group (which only underwent shaving treatment), the mice in all other groups were induced to develop a xeroderma model using an acetone-ether mixture for five consecutive days. The mice in D. officinale group were treated with 200 μL of D. officinale suspension (0.2 mg/mL) two hours after the first modeling each day. Mice in the control group and the model group were applied with an equal volume of pure water; once a day, until the end of the modeling process. After last medication, skin lesions and pathological morphology of the mice were observed. Immunofluorescence was used to detect the expressions of Filaggrin, Loricrin and Ki67 proteins in skin tissue of the mice. The core pathways through which D. officinale improves skin damage in xeroderma were screened using 16S rRNA sequencing combined with gene ontology and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) enrichment analyses, and subsequent validation was conducted. RESULTS Compared with the control group, the mice in the model group exhibited obvious scratching behavior, with a large amount of scale on the skin, excessive epidermal keratinization, and thickened stratum spinosum. The skin scale score, epidermal thickness, and the expression levels of Ki67, Filaggrin, and Loricrin proteins in the skin tissue were significantly increased/elevated ( P <0.05). Compared with model group, the mice in the D. officinale group exhibited reduced scratching behavior and scaling, along with a mitigated degree of skin keratinization. The aforementioned quantitative indicators were significantly decreased/reduced ( P <0.05). The results of core pathway screening revealed that the KEGG pathways involving differentially expressed genes included signaling pathways such as interleukin-17 (IL-17) and tumor necrosis factor (TNF). Further validation experim ents found that after intervention with D. officinale , mRNA expression of downstream effector molecules CCN1, Hbegf, Tnfrsf12a, and Thbs1 genes in skin tissues were all significantly reduced ( P <0.05). CONCLUSIONS D. officinale can repair skin damage in mice with xeroderma, and its mechanism of action is related to restoring the balance of proliferation and differentiation in keratinocytes and down-regulating the mRNA expressions of CCN1, Hbegf, Tnfrsf12a, and Thbs1.
4.Comparison of professional competency between full-time and part-time personnel of the nosocomial infection control administration in Shanghai
Jin WANG ; Liang ZHANG ; Ying LYU ; Kun ZHANG ; Yanting WANG ; Xiaodong GAO ; Qingfeng SHI ; Yizhou JIANG
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(3):245-250
ObjectiveTo investigate the current professional competency among full-time and part-time personnel of the nosocomial infection control administration in Shanghai, so as to provide a scientific basis for future training programmes. MethodsIn December 2024, a questionnaire survey was conducted by the Shanghai Nosocomial Infection Quality Control Center among full-time and part-time personnel of the nosocomial infection control administration across medical institutions at various levels and types in Shanghai using convenience sampling method. The questionnaire consisted of two parts: demographic information and professional competency assessment. The professional competency scale comprised four dimensions: fundamental cognition, basic skills, professional expertise, and personal qualities, totaling 35 items. ResultsA total of 1 179 questionnaires were distributed, with 1 144 valid responses collected, yielding an effective response rate of 97.03%. Statistically significant differences were observed among full-time and part-time personnel of the nosocomial infection control administration in terms of age (t=5.32, P=0.021), professional background (χ2=9.90, P=0.019), educational qualifications (χ2=19.10, P<0.001), professional titles (χ2=12.60, P=0.002), and the levels of medical institutions (χ2=111.08, P<0.001). The scores of full-time personnel of the nosocomial infection control administration in fundamental cognition [92 (82, 99) points] and basic skills [88 (78, 96) points] were significantly higher than those of part-time personnel(Z=-2.21, P=0.027;Z=-2.74, P=0.006). Statistically significant differences were found in fundamental cognition scores between full-time and part-time personnel of the nosocomial infection control administration regarding occupational safety protection, definition of healthcare-associated infection outbreaks, types of drug-resistant bacteria and their prevention and control strategies, and transmission routes of different infectious diseases (all P<0.05). Statistically significant differences were also observed in basic skills scores including proficient use of monitoring platforms, formulation and revision of standard operating procedures (SOPs), independent completion of targeted surveillance, guidance on basic infection control skills, guidance for key departments, and follow-up of personnel with occupational exposure (all P<0.05). However, no statistically significant differences were found in scores of professional knowledge and personal qualities (P>0.05). ConclusionThere are certain differences in professional competency between full-time and part-time personnel of the nosocomial infection control administration in Shanghai in terms of fundamental cognition and basic skills. Part-time personnel can effectively improve their professional competency through systematic training on basic infection control knowledge and practical skills, thereby comprehensively enhancing the overall quality of the nosocomial infection administration team.
5.Diagnosis and treatment of 281 elderly patients with pulmonary ground-glass opacity: A retrospective study in a single center
Lei SU ; Yi ZHANG ; Yan GAO ; Bing WEI ; Tengteng WANG ; Yuanbo LI ; Kun QIAN ; Peilong ZHANG ; Leiming WANG ; Xiuqin WEI
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2025;32(01):94-99
Objective To explore the diagnosis and treatment strategies for elderly patients with ground-glass opacity (GGO). Methods The imaging features and postoperative pathological findings of the elderly patients with pulmonary GGO receiving surgery in our hospital from 2017 to 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were divided into an elderly patient group and a non-elderly patient group based on their age. Results Finally 575 patients were included in the study. There were 281 elderly patients, including 83 males and 198 females, with an average age of (67.0±5.3) years. There were 294 non-elderly patients, including 88 males and 206 females, with an average age of (49.1±7.3) years. Compared with the non-elderly patients, elderly GGO patients showed the following distinct clinical features: long observation time for lesions (P=0.001), high proportion of rough edges of GGO (P<0.001), significant pleural signs (P<0.001) and bronchial signs (P<0.001), and high proportion of type Ⅱ-Ⅳ GGO (P<0.001), lobectomy type (P=0.013), and invasive lesions reported in postoperative pathology (P<0.001). There was no statistical difference in the average hospital stay between the two groups (P=0.106). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that GGO diameter and GGO type were the main factors affecting the operation. Observation time, GGO diameter, GGO type and pleural signs were the main influencing factors for postoperative pathological infiltrative lesions. The cut-off value of GGO diameter in predicting infiltrating lesions was 10.5 mm in the elderly patients group. Conclusion The size and type of GGO are important factors in predicting invasive lesions and selecting surgical methods. Elderly patients with radiographic manifestations of type Ⅱ-Ⅳ GGO lesions with a diameter greater than 10.5 mm should be closely followed up.
6.Discussion on the Application of Warm-Yang Method in Polycystic Ovary Syndrome Infertility
Pengxuan YAN ; Haiyan ZHANG ; Yukun ZHAO ; Yabei GAO ; Kun LI ; Jingchun ZHANG ; Yuping ZHAO ; Zixiao WEI
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;66(3):312-316
It is believed that there is a pathogenesis of yang deficiency in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) infertility, and it is concluded that warm-yang method has a better effect in improving endometrial abnormality, enhancing the quality of follicles, correcting endocrine disorders, and resolving or alleviating clinical symptoms in PCOS infertility. Based on Yanghe Decoction (阳和汤), a representative traditional Chinese medicine decoction for warming yang, Yanghe Xiaonang Decoction (阳和消囊汤) was formulated, combining with warm medicinals according to symptoms, and aerobic exercise was also advocated to help generate and develop yang qi, in order to provide ideas for clinical treatments.
7.Atlantodentoplasty using the anterior retropharyngeal approach for treating irreducible atlantoaxial dislocation with atlantodental bony obstruction: a retrospective study
Jia SHAO ; Yun Peng HAN ; Yan Zheng GAO ; Kun GAO ; Ke Zheng MAO ; Xiu Ru ZHANG
Asian Spine Journal 2025;19(1):54-63
Methods:
The clinical data of 26 patients diagnosed with irreducible atlantoaxial dislocation complicated by atlantodental bony obstruction were analyzed retrospectively. All patients underwent anterior retropharyngeal atlantodentoplasty, followed by posterior occipitocervical fusion. Details including surgical duration and blood loss volume were recorded. Radiographic data such as the anterior atlantodental interval, O–C2 angle, space available for the cord, clivus–canal angle, and cervical medullary angle, and clinical data including the Japanese Orthopedic Association (JOA) score were assessed. The fusion time of the grafted bone and the development of complications were examined.
Results:
In patients undergoing anterior retropharyngeal atlantodentoplasty, the surgical duration and blood loss volume were 120.1±16.4 minutes and 100.6±33.5 mL, respectively. The anterior atlantodental interval decreased significantly after the surgery (p <0.001). The O–C2 angle, space available for the cord, clivus–canal angle, and cervical medullary angle increased significantly after the surgery (p <0.001). The JOA score during the latest follow-up significantly increased compared with that before the surgery (p <0.001). The improvement rate of the JOA score was 80.8%±18.1%. The fusion time of the grafted bone was 3–8 months, with an average of 5.7±1.5 months. In total, 11 patients presented with postoperative dysphagia and three with irritating cough. However, none of them exhibited other major complications.
Conclusions
Anterior retropharyngeal atlantodentoplasty can anatomically reduce the atlantoaxial joint with a satisfactory clinical outcome in patients with irreducible atlantoaxial dislocation with atlantodental bony obstruction.
8.Preliminary application and outcomes of the single-incision ‘axial’ localization approach in fully endoscopic parotidectomy
Zhenjie GAO ; Tingting GAO ; Yanyan JIAN ; Ning GAO ; Kun FU ; Jingjing SUN ; Wei HE
Chinese Journal of Stomatology 2025;60(12):1396-1401
To investigate the feasibility and advantages of "Axis Coordinate Localization Method" combined with total endoscopic technique for parotid surgery. A total of 31 patients with parotid gland tumors who were admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2022 to August 2024 were included in this study. The cohort comprised 11 males and 20 females, with age of (38.9±13.9) years and a maximum tumor diameter of (19.34±6.89) mm. Among these cases, 93.5% (29/31) involved the superficial lobe and 6.5%(2/31) the deep lobe of the parotid gland. The "axial" localization method was utilized to plan the surgical approach: establishing a coordinate system with the earlobe as the origin, the surface projection of the parotid duct as the x-axis, and a perpendicular line through the origin as the y-axis. The incision type-pre-tragal, retroauricular groove, or postauricular hairline-was selected according to the position of the tumor′s surface projection center within this coordinate system. All operations were performed using a complete endoscopic technique for tumor and glandular tissue resection. Postoperative facial nerve function was assessed with the House-Brackmann grading scale, while patient incision satisfaction, impact on work and daily life, and facial symmetry were quantitatively evaluated using a Numerical Rating Scale (10-point system). All 31 patients successfully underwent the procedure. Short-term postoperative complications included temporary facial paralysis in 1 case (3.2%), periauricular numbness in 1 case (3.2%), surgical site effusion in 1 case (3.2%), and subcutaneous hematoma in 1 case (3.2%). All complications resolved after appropriate management. During follow-up, there were no instances of sialocele, Frey syndrome, incision infection, or tumor recurrence. Patient ratings were as follows: incision satisfaction (9.42±0.78), impact of surgery on daily life (1.32±0.60), and facial symmetry (9.29±0.78). The one case of temporary facial paralysis recovered 3 months after surgery. The combination of the "Axial" localization method and fully endoscopic technique demonstrates clear clinical feasibility in parotid tumor resection. This approach enables rapid and personalized incision selection based on tumor location, while the endoscopic minimally invasive technique reduces tissue trauma, improves cosmetic outcomes, and enhances surgical safety. It provides a new minimally invasive treatment pathway for patients with benign parotid tumors.
9.Spinal cord morphological changes and risk factors in upper cervical spine surgery using C 2 medial "in-out-in" pedicle screws
Xiuru ZHANG ; Yanzheng GAO ; Kun GAO ; Jia SHAO ; Kezheng MAO ; Zhongzheng GU
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedics 2025;45(6):351-360
Objective:To investigate spinal cord morphological changes and risk factors in upper cervical spine surgery using C 2 medial "in-out-in" pedicle screws in patients with atlantoaxial dislocation (AAD) and high-riding vertebral artery (HRVA). Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted on 41 patients with AAD who underwent C 2 medial "in-out-in" pedicle screw implantation at our hospital between January 2019 and December 2023. The cohort included 12 males and 29 females, with a mean age of 47.6±10.3 years (range: 18-68 years). Among them, 30 patients received unilateral C 2 medial "in-out-in" screws, while 11 patients received bilateral screws. All patients underwent posterior reduction and internal fixation. Measurements included C 2 pedicle height, C 2 pedicle width, C 2 horizontal spinal canal width, screw invasion distance into the spinal canal, and spinal canal invasion rate based on CT findings. MRI evaluations included spinal canal-dura mater distance, dura mater-spinal cord distance, spinal canal-spinal cord distance, and spinal cord cross-sectional area. The change rate of spinal cord cross-sectional area was calculated and categorized into >20% decrease group (decreasing group) and ≤20% decrease group (non-decreasing group). Postoperative outcomes were assessed using the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) and Japanese Orthopedic Association (JOA) scores. Results:The mean operative time was 165.5±30.1 minutes (range: 120-220 minutes). No spinal cord vascular injuries or severe complications were observed. However, five patients experienced cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) leakage, requiring delayed removal of drainage tubes, but their wounds healed successfully. Follow-ups (range: 6-24 months) showed no loosening of internal fixation, fractures, or bone graft nonunion, with a 100% bone fusion rate at 6 months postoperatively. VAS scores improved significantly from a preoperative median of 5.0 (3.5, 6.0) (range: 1-7) to 2.0 (2.0, 3.0) at 3 months and 1.0 (1.0, 1.0) at 6 months ( Z=36.716, P< 0.001). JOA scores improved from 10.0 (9.0, 12.0) (range: 4-14) preoperatively to 13.0 (11.0, 13.5) at 3 months and 14.0 (12.0, 15.0) at 6 months ( Z=67.093, P<0.001). The height of C 2 pedicle was 5.50±1.78 mm, the width of C 2 pedicle was 2.27±1.23 mm, the width of C 2 horizontal spinal canal was 23.76±4.91 mm, the spinal canal-dura mater distance was 3.08±0.85 mm, dura mater-spinal cord distance was 3.23±0.85 mm, the spinal canal-spinal cord distance was 6.31±1.11 mm, the distance of screw invasion into the spinal canal was 2.80±1.54 mm, the rate of spinal canal invasion was 12.1%±6.8%, the preoperative spinal cord cross-sectional area was 69.81±13.27 mm 2, and the postoperative spinal cord cross-sectional area was 68.81±13.94 mm 2. Based on spinal cord cross-sectional area changes, 32 patients were classified into the non-decreasing group, and 9 patients into the decreasing group. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) values ranged from 0.733 to 0.984, indicating high measurement reliability. There were significant differences in the proportion of C 2 bilateral medial "in-out-in" screws (χ 2=6.903, P=0.009), the incidence of CSF leakage (χ 2=15.391, P<0.001), the distance of screw invasion into the spinal canal ( t=4.990, P<0.001) and the rate of spinal canal invasion ( t=4.045, P<0.001) in the decreasing group versus the non-decreasing group. The JOA scores of the non-decreasing group were significantly higher at 3 and 6 months postoperatively compared to the decreasing group ( P<0.05). No other parameters showed significant differences between the groups. Binary logistic regression analysis identified spinal canal invasion rate [ OR=1.963, 95% CI (1.010, 3.817), P=0.047] as an independent risk factor for spinal cord cross-sectional area reduction. The Jordan index was 0.875, with a spinal canal invasion rate threshold of 14.18%, a sensitivity of 1.000, a specificity of 0.875, and an AUC of 0.983, indicating strong predictive value. Conclusion:The C 2 medial "in-out-in" screw technique provides effective posterior fixation and fusion for AAD patients with HRVA. However, to minimize spinal cord morphological changes and associated risks, the spinal canal invasion rate should be kept below 14.18% when using this technique.
10.Study on the relationship between parenting styles of toddlers aged 30 months and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder symptom trajectories in preschool children
Han LI ; Juan TONG ; Xing WANG ; Shuangqin YAN ; Kun HUANG ; Xiaoyan WU ; Shuman TAO ; Beibei ZHU ; Hui GAO ; Fangbiao TAO
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(4):709-716
Objective:To explore the relationship between parenting styles of toddlers aged 30 months and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptom trajectories in preschool children.Methods:The subjects were 2 111 children and their parents in Ma'anshan Birth Cohort. Parenting styles were assessed at 30 months of age using the Brief Toddler Parenting Style Questionnaire, which defines parenting styles on four dimensions: warmth and interaction, attention and acceptance, outdoor and social activities, and neglect and restrictions. The Chinese version of the Conners Abbreviated Symptom Questionnaire was used to examine preschooler's ADHD symptoms aged 3, 5, and 6 years. ADHD symptom trajectories were fitted using group-based trajectory modeling. The multinomial logistic regression model was used to evaluate the relationship between parenting styles at 30 months of age and ADHD symptom trajectories in children. The additive and multiplicative models were applied to analyze the interaction effect of negative parenting styles in children's ADHD symptom trajectories.Results:ADHD symptom trajectories in children included the low-score (48.3%), moderate-score (47.7%), and high-score groups (4.0%). After adjusting for the confounding factors, the results of the multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that negative parenting styles of the father/mother were associated with ADHD symptom trajectories in children ( P<0.05). The father/mother's low warmth and interaction (father: OR=2.07,95% CI:1.68-2.54; mother: OR=2.02,95% CI:1.64-2.48), low attention and acceptance (father: OR=1.94,95% CI:1.57-2.39; mother: OR=1.47,95% CI:1.20-1.81), low outdoor and social (father: OR=1.74,95% CI:1.43-2.13; mother: OR=1.60,95% CI:1.32-1.94), and high neglect and restriction (father: OR=2.09,95% CI:1.67-2.62; mother: OR=2.06,95% CI:1.65-2.56) were associated with ADHD symptom moderate-score trajectories compared to the low-score trajectory group, mother's low warmth and interaction, low outdoor and social, and high neglect and restrictions. Statistically significant association was seen in negative parenting styles of fathers with the high-score group. There was a multiplicative interaction for hostile parenting ( P<0.05). The additive interaction results showed that there was a synergistic effect of hostile parenting, which increased the risk of the high-score trajectories of ADHD symptoms in children. Conclusions:Both parents' parenting styles influenced ADHD symptom change the trajectories in preschoolers. Negative parenting styles of the father/mother increase the risk of the moderate-score and high-score trajectories of ADHD symptoms in children. Hostile parenting by both parents has a synergistic impact on the risk of ADHD symptom trajectories in children, and the simultaneous presence of both increases the risk of the high-score trajectory of ADHD symptoms.


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