BACKGROUND: Older adults in Japan have the highest drowning mortality rate globally due to frequent bathing practices. Low outdoor temperatures have been linked to bath-related deaths; however, previous studies employed limited statistical models and focused on a single prefecture. Given Japan's aging population, preventing bath-related deaths is a public health priority. This study aimed to analyze the association between outdoor temperature and bath-related drowning deaths across Japan from 1995 to 2020 (n = 110,938), examining regional variations and identifying contributing prefectural characteristics. METHODS: Daily counts of bath-related drowning deaths per prefecture were matched with daily mean temperature data from the Japan Meteorological Agency. Prefecture-level demographic and environmental data were obtained from Japan's Official Statistics. We applied a generalized additive mixed model to examine the association between daily mean temperature and bath-related drowning death risk. Meta-regression was used to identify prefecture-level modifiers. RESULTS: Bath-related drowning death risk peaked at a daily mean temperature of 1.8 °C (relative risk [RR] 9.7, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 9.5-9.9), compared with the lowest risk at 30.3 °C. The association was stronger at mid-range temperatures, particularly among males and individuals aged ≥65 years. Among prefectures, Kagoshima-the southernmost prefecture on Japan's main islands-had the highest maximum RR at 19.6 (95% CI: 16.2-23.6), while Hokkaido-the northernmost prefecture-had the lowest at 3.8 (95% CI: 3.4-4.3). Prefecture-level factors that strengthened this relationship included a lower prevalence of double-pane windows as a proxy of housing insulation and higher annual mean temperatures with ratio of RR change per one standard deviation increase of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.69-0.83) and 1.27 (95% CI: 1.18-1.37), respectively. CONCLUSIONS Warmer prefectures in southern regions exhibited greater maximum-to-minimum risk ratios compared to cooler northern prefectures. This paradoxical finding underscores the importance of region-specific interventions to reduce bath-related deaths.
Japan/epidemiology* ; Humans ; Drowning/epidemiology* ; Male ; Aged ; Female ; Baths/statistics & numerical data* ; Middle Aged ; Temperature ; Aged, 80 and over ; Adult ; Young Adult ; Risk Factors ; Adolescent

BACKGROUND: Globally, Japan has the highest drowning mortality among older adults, largely because of bathing customs. Although this mortality rate peaks in winter, the nationwide impact of outdoor temperature has not been quantified, and whether specific days carry greater risks for bathtub drowning deaths remains unclear. Therefore, we aimed to address these gaps using nationwide data from Japan. METHODS: We collected daily data on outdoor temperatures and bathtub drowning deaths (from death certificates), along with population data, across 47 prefectures from 1995-2020. A time series regression model incorporating a cyclic spline for day-of-year and a cross-basis function for outdoor temperature was used to estimate seasonality and temperature attributable fractions (AFs). Prefecture-specific estimates were pooled using meta-analysis. National holidays were defined by the Act on National Holidays. RESULTS: During the study period, 99,930 home bathtub drowning deaths were recorded. The AF for seasonality modelled with a cyclic spline for day-of-year was 77.8% (empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 76.7-78.8%), which decreased to 15.3% (eCI: 13.1-18.0%) after adjusting for outdoor temperature, indicating that outdoor temperature accounted for 80.3% of the seasonal effect. Elevated risks were observed on Sundays (relative risk = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.12-1.20), holidays (1.12, 95% CI: 1.08-1.16), New Year's Day (1.72, 95% CI: 1.61-1.84), and New Year's Eve (1.63, 95% CI: 1.52-1.74) in the adjusted model, which included a cyclic spline for day-of-year and a cross-basis function for outdoor temperature. CONCLUSION Our findings highlight the importance of mitigating the impact of outdoor temperature on bath-related death risk. Identifying high-risk days can be used to help develop targeted preventive strategies.
Seasons ; Humans ; Drowning/epidemiology* ; Japan/epidemiology* ; Temperature ; Aged ; Male ; Adult ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Child ; Young Adult ; Adolescent ; Aged, 80 and over ; Child, Preschool

BACKGROUND: Maintenance of instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) and social role (SR) is crucial to keep independent life because the decline in SR and IADL was a significant predictor of dependence in basic ADL in later. The independent effect of physical and cultural leisure activities and their effect modification on the IADL remains unknown. METHODS: We prospectively observed 3241 elderly with intact IADL at baseline for 5 years. Higher level functional capacity such as IADL and SR was assessed using the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology Index of competence (TMIG index). RESULTS: The mean age of the participants was 72.3 years (standard deviation 5.1), and 46.9% were male, and 90.9% of them received a follow-up assessment. Of the participants, 10.4% developed an IADL decline. Engagement in leisure physical activity was associated with a significantly lower risk of IADL decline (adjusted risk ratio, 0.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.60 to 0.89), and cultural leisure activity was also associated with lower risk of IADL decline (adjusted risk ratio, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.63 to 0.95) independent of potential confounders. We also found significant and positive interaction between physical and cultural leisure activities at risk for IADL decline (P = 0.024) and SR decline (P = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS We found an independent association of physical and cultural leisure activities with a lower risk for functional decline in IADL and SR with positive interaction. Combined engagement in physical and cultural activities may effectively prevent from IADL decline and SR decline.