1.Application of multi-state Markov models to analyze transition of homosexual behavior in men who have sex with men and influencing factors in Shandong Province
Wenqi FAN ; Yuxi LIN ; Guoyong WANG ; Meizhen LIAO ; Wei MA ; Kedi JIAO
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(5):820-825
Objective:To analyze the transition patterns of anal sex and unprotected anal intercourse (UAI), estimate the transition intensity and probability, and identify factors influencing the transition patterns in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Shandong Province.Methods:In August 2019, MSM aged ≥18 years old were recruited as subjects from 11 cities in Shandong Province. The baseline survey were completed in December 2019, and followup surveys were conducted once every 3 mouths from June 2020 to March 2021. Time-continuous, state-discrete multi-state reversible Markov model was constructed based on the status of MSM's sexual behaviors with different types of sexual partners [anal sex occurred or not (S1=No, S2=Yes) and UAI occurred or not (S1=No,S2=Yes)] to analyze the transition patterns and the influencing factors.Results:A total of 735 MSM were included. The transition intensity of starting anal sex with stable and casual partners was 1.935 times and 0.595 times higher than that of discontinuing this behavior, respectively. While the transition intensity to start UAI with stable and casual partners was 0.430 times and 0.169 times higher than that of discontinuing it, respectively. During the follow-up, the transition probabilities of anal sex and UAI with both stable and casual partners increased first and then stabilized. For stable partners, the transition probability of starting anal sex was higher than that of discontinuing it at the same period, for casual partners, it was just the reverse. For both stable and casual partners, the transition probabilities of discontinuing UAI were higher than starting it at the same time. The results of multivariate analysis showed that participants who received intervention materials ( HR=1.47), had an associate degree ( HR=1.77) or a bachelor's degree and above ( HR=1.47) were at higher risk of starting anal sex with stable partners. Those who received intervention materials ( HR=1.39) were at higher risk of discontinuing anal sex with stable partners, while participants identified themselves as non-male gender ( HR=0.49) were at lower risk of discontinuing anal sex with stable partners. Participants received intervention materials ( HR=1.75) were at higher risk of starting UAI with stable partners. Those who lived apart, divorced, or widowed ( HR=3.22) were at higher risk of starting UAI with casual partners, whereas had a bachelor's degree and above ( HR=0.58) were at lower risk of starting UAI with casual partners. Participants identified themselves as non-male gender ( HR=0.45) at lower risk of discounting UAI with casual partners. Conclusions:The transition patterns of homosexual behavior in MSM are different. Marital status, gender identity, educational level and other factors are the influencing factors of sexual behavior status transitions. Future researches should develop targeted interventions for different types of sexual partners and characteristics of MSM.
2.Application of multi-state Markov models to analyze transition of homosexual behavior in men who have sex with men and influencing factors in Shandong Province
Wenqi FAN ; Yuxi LIN ; Guoyong WANG ; Meizhen LIAO ; Wei MA ; Kedi JIAO
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(5):820-825
Objective:To analyze the transition patterns of anal sex and unprotected anal intercourse (UAI), estimate the transition intensity and probability, and identify factors influencing the transition patterns in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Shandong Province.Methods:In August 2019, MSM aged ≥18 years old were recruited as subjects from 11 cities in Shandong Province. The baseline survey were completed in December 2019, and followup surveys were conducted once every 3 mouths from June 2020 to March 2021. Time-continuous, state-discrete multi-state reversible Markov model was constructed based on the status of MSM's sexual behaviors with different types of sexual partners [anal sex occurred or not (S1=No, S2=Yes) and UAI occurred or not (S1=No,S2=Yes)] to analyze the transition patterns and the influencing factors.Results:A total of 735 MSM were included. The transition intensity of starting anal sex with stable and casual partners was 1.935 times and 0.595 times higher than that of discontinuing this behavior, respectively. While the transition intensity to start UAI with stable and casual partners was 0.430 times and 0.169 times higher than that of discontinuing it, respectively. During the follow-up, the transition probabilities of anal sex and UAI with both stable and casual partners increased first and then stabilized. For stable partners, the transition probability of starting anal sex was higher than that of discontinuing it at the same period, for casual partners, it was just the reverse. For both stable and casual partners, the transition probabilities of discontinuing UAI were higher than starting it at the same time. The results of multivariate analysis showed that participants who received intervention materials ( HR=1.47), had an associate degree ( HR=1.77) or a bachelor's degree and above ( HR=1.47) were at higher risk of starting anal sex with stable partners. Those who received intervention materials ( HR=1.39) were at higher risk of discontinuing anal sex with stable partners, while participants identified themselves as non-male gender ( HR=0.49) were at lower risk of discontinuing anal sex with stable partners. Participants received intervention materials ( HR=1.75) were at higher risk of starting UAI with stable partners. Those who lived apart, divorced, or widowed ( HR=3.22) were at higher risk of starting UAI with casual partners, whereas had a bachelor's degree and above ( HR=0.58) were at lower risk of starting UAI with casual partners. Participants identified themselves as non-male gender ( HR=0.45) at lower risk of discounting UAI with casual partners. Conclusions:The transition patterns of homosexual behavior in MSM are different. Marital status, gender identity, educational level and other factors are the influencing factors of sexual behavior status transitions. Future researches should develop targeted interventions for different types of sexual partners and characteristics of MSM.
3.A study on quality of life and related factors among HIV-infected men who have sex with men based on latent profile analysis
Xiaonan ZHANG ; Kedi JIAO ; Shengli SU ; Meizhen LIAO ; Wei MA
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2023;44(8):1290-1295
Objectives:To investigate the potential classification of quality of life in HIV-infected men who have sex with men (HIV-infected MSM) and to analyze possible influencing factors of different categories.Methods:A questionnaire survey was conducted among HIV-infected MSM who received antiretroviral treatment (ART) in an infectious disease hospital in Ji'nan, Shandong Province from October to December 2020. The quality of life scores in six domains were analyzed by latent profile analysis (LPA), and possible related factors of potential classification were explored by ordinal logistic regression analysis.Results:A total of 584 HIV-infected MSM were included in this study. LPA divided their quality of life into three categories, named low score, medium score and high score groups, accounting for 34.4% (201/584), 49.8% (291/584), and 15.8% (92/584), respectively. Multivariate ordinal logistic regression analysis showed that age above 40 years (a OR=1.77, 95% CI:1.11-2.80), monthly average income of 3 000 Yuan and below (a OR=3.15, 95% CI:1.72-5.76), monthly average income of 3 001-5 000 Yuan (a OR=2.26, 95% CI:1.41-3.62), distance to the hospital to receive drugs farer than 40 kms (a OR=1.76, 95% CI:1.07-2.89), and adverse reactions after taking drugs (a OR=2.31, 95% CI:1.65-3.23) were factors associated with low level of quality of life. Conclusions:The qualities of life of HIV-infected MSM showed group heterogeneity and were at high levels. Attention should be focused on HIV-infected MSM who are at older age, with low income, and long distance to access the health facilities. The measures should be taken to reduce the adverse reactions of ART drugs and improve the quality of life.
4.Correlation between alcohol drinking and high risk sexual behaviors in HIV negative clients of female sex workers
Zece XU ; Ran WEI ; Kedi JIAO ; Ci REN ; Wei MA
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2020;41(9):1531-1535
Objective:To explore the correlation between alcohol drinking and high-risk sexual behaviors in HIV negative clients of female sex workers and provide scientific evidence for prevention of HIV sexual transmission.Methods:A cross-sectional survey was conducted in HIV negative clients in Ji’nan and Haikou from December 2018 to May 2019. The estimated sample size was 337, the information about their demographic characteristics, AIDS knowledge awareness, sexual behaviors and alcohol drinking habit were collected through convenience sampling. The data were analyzed by using SPSS 24.0 software.Results:A total of 381 clients were included in this study. Most of them were less than 40 years old, accounting for 89.2% (340/381); 85.3% of them (325/381) reported an education level of high school and above; the clients who were married, had cohabitation with females or had girl friends accounted for 53.2% (202/380). The overall awareness rate of AIDS knowledge was 83.7% (318/380). Of all participants, 80.8% (308/381) had commercial sex in the past year, 79.8% (304/381) had non-commercial sex partners, 62.7% (239/381) had high-risk sexual behaviors. The results of logistic regression showed that compared with those with alcohol drinking frequency ≤2 times per month in last year, the clients with alcohol drinking frequency more than once a week (a OR=3.22, 95 %CI: 1.25-8.27) were more likely to have high risk sexual behaviors after adjustment for age, living area, location type of residence, time of local residence, education level, monthly income level, occupation, marital status, knowledge awareness of AIDS and HIV related services, the number of commercial or non-commercial sexual partners in the past year, cost of commercial sex and HIV test frequency. Conclusions:Alcohol drinking is related to high risk sexual behaviors in HIV negative clients, and will increase the risk of HIV transmission. To control AIDS, the intervention of alcohol drinking should be combined with other preventions to improve the correct use of condoms.

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