1.Effect of Cinobufacini on HepG2 cells based on CXCL5/FOXD1/VEGF pathway
Xiao-Ke RAN ; Xu-Dong LIU ; Hua-Zhen PANG ; Wei-Qiang TAN ; Tie-Xiong WU ; Zhao-Quan PAN ; Yuan YUAN ; Xin-Feng LOU
Chinese Pharmacological Bulletin 2024;40(12):2361-2368
Aim To investigate the impact of Cinobu-facini on the proliferation,invasion,and apoptosis of HepG2 cells and the underlying mechanism.Methods The proliferation of HepG2 cells was assessed using the CCK-8 method following treatment with Cinobufaci-ni.The invasion capability of HepG2 cells was evalua-ted through Transwell assay after exposure to Cinobufa-cini.The apoptosis rates of HepG2 cells post Cinobufa-cini intervention were measured using flow cytometry,and the expression levels of VEGF in the culture medi-um of HepG2 cells were determined using enzyme-linked immunoassay.Furthermore,qRT-PCR and Western blot analyses were conducted to assess the im-pact of Cinobufacini on mRNA and protein expression levels related to the CXCL5/FOXD1/VEGF pathway.The interaction between CXCL5 and FOXD1 was inves-tigated via co-immunoprecipitation.Results Cinobufa-cini treatment led to a gradual decrease in HepG2 cell viability in a dose-dependent manner compared to the control group(P<0.05).Moreover,Cinobufacini sig-nificantly suppressed HepG2 cell invasion(P<0.05)while enhancing cell apoptosis(P<0.05).Notably,Cinobufacini exhibited inhibitory effects on the CX-CL5/FOXD1/VEGF pathway,as evidenced by re-duced expression of related mRNA and proteins(P<0.05).FOXD1 was identified as the binding site of CXCL5.Overexpression of CXCL5 resulted in in-creased proliferation and VEGF secretion by HepG2 cells(P<0.05),and increased expression of FOXD1 and VEGF(P<0.05).However,Cinobufacini inter-vention effectively inhibited liver cancer cell prolifera-tion and invasion(P<0.05),promoted apoptosis(P<0.05),reduced VEGF secretion by HepG2 cells(P<0.05),and downregulated the expression of CXCL5 and FOXD1 in HepG2 cells(P<0.05);but com-pared with the unexpressed group of Cinobufacini,its ability to inhibit cell activity was weakened(P<0.05),and its ability to inhibit the expression of CX-CL5,FOXD1,and VEGF was weakened(P<0.05).Conclusion Cinobufacini may inhibit HepG2 cell pro-liferation and invasion and promote HepG2 cell apopto-sis by regulating the CXCL5/FOXD1/VEGF pathway.
2.Chinese expert consensus on blood support mode and blood transfusion strategies for emergency treatment of severe trauma patients (version 2024)
Yao LU ; Yang LI ; Leiying ZHANG ; Hao TANG ; Huidan JING ; Yaoli WANG ; Xiangzhi JIA ; Li BA ; Maohong BIAN ; Dan CAI ; Hui CAI ; Xiaohong CAI ; Zhanshan ZHA ; Bingyu CHEN ; Daqing CHEN ; Feng CHEN ; Guoan CHEN ; Haiming CHEN ; Jing CHEN ; Min CHEN ; Qing CHEN ; Shu CHEN ; Xi CHEN ; Jinfeng CHENG ; Xiaoling CHU ; Hongwang CUI ; Xin CUI ; Zhen DA ; Ying DAI ; Surong DENG ; Weiqun DONG ; Weimin FAN ; Ke FENG ; Danhui FU ; Yongshui FU ; Qi FU ; Xuemei FU ; Jia GAN ; Xinyu GAN ; Wei GAO ; Huaizheng GONG ; Rong GUI ; Geng GUO ; Ning HAN ; Yiwen HAO ; Wubing HE ; Qiang HONG ; Ruiqin HOU ; Wei HOU ; Jie HU ; Peiyang HU ; Xi HU ; Xiaoyu HU ; Guangbin HUANG ; Jie HUANG ; Xiangyan HUANG ; Yuanshuai HUANG ; Shouyong HUN ; Xuebing JIANG ; Ping JIN ; Dong LAI ; Aiping LE ; Hongmei LI ; Bijuan LI ; Cuiying LI ; Daihong LI ; Haihong LI ; He LI ; Hui LI ; Jianping LI ; Ning LI ; Xiying LI ; Xiangmin LI ; Xiaofei LI ; Xiaojuan LI ; Zhiqiang LI ; Zhongjun LI ; Zunyan LI ; Huaqin LIANG ; Xiaohua LIANG ; Dongfa LIAO ; Qun LIAO ; Yan LIAO ; Jiajin LIN ; Chunxia LIU ; Fenghua LIU ; Peixian LIU ; Tiemei LIU ; Xiaoxin LIU ; Zhiwei LIU ; Zhongdi LIU ; Hua LU ; Jianfeng LUAN ; Jianjun LUO ; Qun LUO ; Dingfeng LYU ; Qi LYU ; Xianping LYU ; Aijun MA ; Liqiang MA ; Shuxuan MA ; Xainjun MA ; Xiaogang MA ; Xiaoli MA ; Guoqing MAO ; Shijie MU ; Shaolin NIE ; Shujuan OUYANG ; Xilin OUYANG ; Chunqiu PAN ; Jian PAN ; Xiaohua PAN ; Lei PENG ; Tao PENG ; Baohua QIAN ; Shu QIAO ; Li QIN ; Ying REN ; Zhaoqi REN ; Ruiming RONG ; Changshan SU ; Mingwei SUN ; Wenwu SUN ; Zhenwei SUN ; Haiping TANG ; Xiaofeng TANG ; Changjiu TANG ; Cuihua TAO ; Zhibin TIAN ; Juan WANG ; Baoyan WANG ; Chunyan WANG ; Gefei WANG ; Haiyan WANG ; Hongjie WANG ; Peng WANG ; Pengli WANG ; Qiushi WANG ; Xiaoning WANG ; Xinhua WANG ; Xuefeng WANG ; Yong WANG ; Yongjun WANG ; Yuanjie WANG ; Zhihua WANG ; Shaojun WEI ; Yaming WEI ; Jianbo WEN ; Jun WEN ; Jiang WU ; Jufeng WU ; Aijun XIA ; Fei XIA ; Rong XIA ; Jue XIE ; Yanchao XING ; Yan XIONG ; Feng XU ; Yongzhu XU ; Yongan XU ; Yonghe YAN ; Beizhan YAN ; Jiang YANG ; Jiangcun YANG ; Jun YANG ; Xinwen YANG ; Yongyi YANG ; Chunyan YAO ; Mingliang YE ; Changlin YIN ; Ming YIN ; Wen YIN ; Lianling YU ; Shuhong YU ; Zebo YU ; Yigang YU ; Anyong YU ; Hong YUAN ; Yi YUAN ; Chan ZHANG ; Jinjun ZHANG ; Jun ZHANG ; Kai ZHANG ; Leibing ZHANG ; Quan ZHANG ; Rongjiang ZHANG ; Sanming ZHANG ; Shengji ZHANG ; Shuo ZHANG ; Wei ZHANG ; Weidong ZHANG ; Xi ZHANG ; Xingwen ZHANG ; Guixi ZHANG ; Xiaojun ZHANG ; Guoqing ZHAO ; Jianpeng ZHAO ; Shuming ZHAO ; Beibei ZHENG ; Shangen ZHENG ; Huayou ZHOU ; Jicheng ZHOU ; Lihong ZHOU ; Mou ZHOU ; Xiaoyu ZHOU ; Xuelian ZHOU ; Yuan ZHOU ; Zheng ZHOU ; Zuhuang ZHOU ; Haiyan ZHU ; Peiyuan ZHU ; Changju ZHU ; Lili ZHU ; Zhengguo WANG ; Jianxin JIANG ; Deqing WANG ; Jiongcai LAN ; Quanli WANG ; Yang YU ; Lianyang ZHANG ; Aiqing WEN
Chinese Journal of Trauma 2024;40(10):865-881
Patients with severe trauma require an extremely timely treatment and transfusion plays an irreplaceable role in the emergency treatment of such patients. An increasing number of evidence-based medicinal evidences and clinical practices suggest that patients with severe traumatic bleeding benefit from early transfusion of low-titer group O whole blood or hemostatic resuscitation with red blood cells, plasma and platelet of a balanced ratio. However, the current domestic mode of blood supply cannot fully meet the requirements of timely and effective blood transfusion for emergency treatment of patients with severe trauma in clinical practice. In order to solve the key problems in blood supply and blood transfusion strategies for emergency treatment of severe trauma, Branch of Clinical Transfusion Medicine of Chinese Medical Association, Group for Trauma Emergency Care and Multiple Injuries of Trauma Branch of Chinese Medical Association, Young Scholar Group of Disaster Medicine Branch of Chinese Medical Association organized domestic experts of blood transfusion medicine and trauma treatment to jointly formulate Chinese expert consensus on blood support mode and blood transfusion strategies for emergency treatment of severe trauma patients ( version 2024). Based on the evidence-based medical evidence and Delphi method of expert consultation and voting, 10 recommendations were put forward from two aspects of blood support mode and transfusion strategies, aiming to provide a reference for transfusion resuscitation in the emergency treatment of severe trauma and further improve the success rate of treatment of patients with severe trauma.
3.Strengthening the integration of traditional Chinese and Western medicine to promote the construction of a Chinese characteristic wound repair and regeneration system
Yu LIU ; Xiaohui QIU ; Na YANG ; Hong YANG ; Lixin XU ; Jian WANG ; Lu ZHANG ; Ke CAO ; Ke TAO ; Wu XIONG ; Jianda ZHOU
Journal of Chinese Physician 2024;26(3):321-325
To promote the construction of a wound repair and regeneration system with Chinese characteristics, it is necessary to follow the principle of combining traditional Chinese and Western medicine, and integrate theory, clinical practice, and teaching. Traditional Chinese medicine emphasizes a holistic concept and the principle of dialectical treatment, while Western medicine focuses on etiological analysis and local treatment. The combination of Chinese and Western medicine can complement each other's advantages and improve treatment effectiveness. The key technological innovations in repairing and regenerating systems cover areas such as drug therapy, physical therapy, and the application of biomaterials. This article discusses the development potential and challenges of combining traditional Chinese and Western medicine in the field of wound repair and regeneration, providing new ideas and methods for the development of wound repair and regeneration. It is expected to bring better medical services and treatment effects to patients undergoing repair and regeneration.
4.Clinical efficacy and prognosis of different infusion modes of DC-CIK for the treatment of primary liver cancer
WU Wenqing1 ; JIANG Longwei2 ; JIA Shaochang2 ; HU Jianhua2 ; KE Chuanqing1 ; ZHANG Haoli1 ; FU Huiying1 ; XIONG Xie1
Chinese Journal of Cancer Biotherapy 2024;31(10):970-975
[摘 要] 目的:探讨不同途径输注DC-CIK对中晚期原发性肝癌(PLC)的治疗效果和预后价值。方法:回顾性分析2018年10月至2021年9月间东部战区总医院肿瘤科DC-CIK治疗的69例中晚期PLC患者的临床资料,根据DC-CIK治疗时采用的输注方式不同将患者分为肝动脉灌注(HAI)组(n = 29)和静脉输注(IV)组(n = 40),比较两组患者的临床疗效、外周血T淋巴细胞亚群(CD3+、CD4 +、CD8 + T和CD4+/CD8+ T细胞比值),以及细胞因子(IL-2、IL-6、IFN-γ和TNF-α)、甲胎蛋白(AFP)的变化、总生存期(OS)和不良反应发生情况。结果:69例PLC患者经DC-CIK治疗后,HAI组患者的客观缓解率(ORR)为0%,疾病控制率(DCR)为75.8%;IV组患者的ORR为0%,DCR为72.5%(P > 0.05)。两组患者治疗前后T淋巴细胞亚群指标变化差异无统计学意义(均P > 0.05),两组患者治疗后外周血IL-2、IL-6、IFN-γ和TNF-α的平均水平均显著高于治疗前(均P < 0.01),两组间比较无显著差异(P > 0.05);HAI组患者平均OS为48.17个月,IV组OS为39.65个月,两组间比较无显著差异(P > 0.05)。治疗过程中无严重不良反应发生。结论:自体DC-CIK HAI治疗PLC安全有效,较IV治疗有提升临床获益的趋势,值得临床借鉴。
5.Short-term results of a multicenter study based on a modified N7 induction regimen combined with arsenic trioxide in the treatment of children with high-risk neuroblastoma
Shu YANG ; Kailan CHEN ; Yunyan HE ; Xiaomin PENG ; Hao XIONG ; Wenguang JIA ; Sha WU ; Xunqi JI ; Yuwen CHEN ; Chuan TIAN ; Zhonglü YE ; Zhen YANG ; Jianjun ZHU ; Aiguo LIU ; Xiaohua TIAN ; Fengjuan PAN ; Ke HUANG ; Dunhua ZHOU ; Jianpei FANG ; Yang LI
Chinese Journal of Pediatrics 2024;62(10):949-955
Objective:To analyze the short-term clinical efficacy and safety of arsenic trioxide (ATO) combined with a modified N7 induction regimen in the treatment of children with high-risk neuroblastoma (NB).Methods:This study was a prospective, single-arm, multicenter phase Ⅱ clinical study. Sixty-seven high-risk NB children from eight units of Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Wuhan Children′s Hospital of Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Hainan General Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Kunming Children′s Hospital, Tongji Hospital of Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, and Guangdong Provincial Agricultural Reclamation Center Hospital were enrolled from January 2019 to August 2023 and were treated with ATO combined with a modified N7 induction regimen. The efficacy and adverse effects at the end of induction chemotherapy were assessed and analyzed, and the differences in the clinical characteristics were further compared between the treatment-responsive and treatment-unresponsive groups by using the Fisher′s exact test.Results:Among 67 high-risk NB children, there were 40 males (60%) and 27 females (40%), with the age of disease onset of 3.5 (2.6, 4.8) years. Primary NB sites were mostly in retroperitoneum (including adrenal gland) (56/67, 84%) and the common metastases sites at initial diagnosis were distant lymph node in 25 cases (37%),bone in 48 cases (72%),bone marrow in 56 cases (84%) and intracalvarium in 3 cases (4%). MYCN gene amplification were detected in 28 cases (42%). At the end of induction, 33 cases (49%) achieved complete remission, 29 cases (43%) achieved partial remission, 1 case (1%) with stable disease, and 4 cases (6%) were assessed as progressive disease (PD). The objective remission rate was 93% (62/67) and the disease control rate was 94% (63/67). The percentage of central system metastases at the initial diagnosis was higher in the treatment-unresponsive group than in the treatment-responsive group (2/5 vs. 2% (1/62), P=0.013), whereas the difference in MYCN gene amplification was not statistically significant between two groups (3/5 vs.40% (25/62), P=0.786). Grade Ⅲ or higher adverse reactions during the induction chemotherapy period were myelosuppression occurred in 60 cases (90%), gastrointestinal symptoms occurred in 33 cases (49%), infections occurred in 20 cases (30%), hepatotoxicity occurred in 4 cases (6%), and cardiovascular toxicity occurred in 1 case (2%). There were no chemotherapy-related deaths. Conclusion:ATO combined with N7-modified induction regimen had a superiority in efficacy and safety, which deserved further promotion in clinical practice.
6.TCM Guidelines for Diagnosis and Treatment of Chronic Cough in Children
Xi MING ; Liqun WU ; Ziwei WANG ; Bo WANG ; Jialin ZHENG ; Jingwei HUO ; Mei HAN ; Xiaochun FENG ; Baoqing ZHANG ; Xia ZHAO ; Mengqing WANG ; Zheng XUE ; Ke CHANG ; Youpeng WANG ; Yanhong QIN ; Bin YUAN ; Hua CHEN ; Lining WANG ; Xianqing REN ; Hua XU ; Liping SUN ; Zhenqi WU ; Yun ZHAO ; Xinmin LI ; Min LI ; Jian CHEN ; Junhong WANG ; Yonghong JIANG ; Yongbin YAN ; Hengmiao GAO ; Hongmin FU ; Yongkun HUANG ; Jinghui YANG ; Zhu CHEN ; Lei XIONG
Journal of Nanjing University of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2024;40(7):722-732
Following the principles of evidence-based medicine,in accordance with the structure and drafting rules of standardized documents,based on literature research,according to the characteristics of chronic cough in children and issues that need to form a consensus,the TCM Guidelines for Diagnosis and Treatment of Chronic Cough in Children was formulated based on the Delphi method,expert discussion meetings,and public solicitation of opinions.The guideline includes scope of application,terms and definitions,eti-ology and diagnosis,auxiliary examination,treatment,prevention and care.The aim is to clarify the optimal treatment plan of Chinese medicine in the diagnosis and treatment of this disease,and to provide guidance for improving the clinical diagnosis and treatment of chronic cough in children with Chinese medicine.
7.Mechanism of Sijunzi Decoction in treatment of Alzheimer's disease based on UPLC-Q-TOF-MS, network pharmacology, and experimental verification.
Ke-Zhen CAI ; Qin ZHENG ; Xu-Dong ZHU ; Shao-Feng WEI ; Meng-Qi WU ; Hui XIONG ; Hai-Ting ZHAO
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2023;48(6):1620-1631
The study identified the blood-entering components of Sijunzi Decoction after gavage administration in rats by UPLC-Q-TOF-MS/MS, and investigated the mechanism of Sijunzi Decoction in treating Alzheimer's disease by virtue of network pharmacology, molecular docking, and experimental verification. The blood-entering components of Sijunzi Decoction were identified based on the mass spectra and data from literature and databases. The potential targets of the above-mentioned blood-entering components in the treatment of Alzheimer's disease were searched against PharmMapper, OMIM, DisGeNET, GeneCards, and TTD. Next, STRING was employed to establish a protein-protein interaction(PPI) network. DAVID was used to perform the Gene Ontology(GO) annotation and the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes(KEGG) pathway enrichment. Cytoscape 3.9.0 was used to carry out visual analysis. AutoDock Vina and PyMOL were used for molecular docking of the blood-entering components with the potential targets. Finally, the phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase(PI3K)/protein kinase B(Akt) signaling pathway enriched by the KEGG analysis was selected for validation by animal experiments. The results showed that 17 blood-entering components were detected in the serum samples after administration. Among them, poricoic acid B, liquiritigenin, atractylenolide Ⅱ, atractylenolide Ⅲ, ginsenoside Rb_1, and glycyrrhizic acid were the key components of Sijunzi Decoction in treating Alzheimer's disease. HSP90AA1, PPARA, SRC, AR, and ESR1 were the main targets for Sijunzi Decoction to treat Alzheimer's disease. Molecular docking showed that the components bound well with the targets. Therefore, we hypothesized that the mechanism of Sijunzi Decoction in treating Alzheimer's disease may be associated with the PI3K/Akt, cancer treatment, and mitogen-activated protein kinase(MAPK) signaling pathways. The results of animal experiments showed that Sijunzi Decoction significantly attenuated the neuronal damage in the hippocampal dentate gyrus area, increased the neurons, and raised the ratios of p-Akt/Akt and p-PI3K/PI3K in the hippocampus of mice. In conclusion, Sijunzi Decoction may treat Alzheimer's disease by activating the PI3K/Akt signaling pathway. The findings of this study provide a reference for further studies about the mechanism of action and clinical application of Sijunzi Decoction.
Animals
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Mice
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Rats
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Proto-Oncogene Proteins c-akt
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Network Pharmacology
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Alzheimer Disease/drug therapy*
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Molecular Docking Simulation
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Phosphatidylinositol 3-Kinases/genetics*
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Tandem Mass Spectrometry
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/pharmacology*
8.Quick guideline for diagnosis and treatment of novel coronavirus Omicron variant infection
Guang CHEN ; Tao CHEN ; Sainan SHU ; Xiaojing WANG ; Ke MA ; Di WU ; Hongwu WANG ; Yan LIU ; Wei GUO ; Meifang HAN ; Jianxin SONG ; Tonglin LIU ; Shusheng LI ; Jianping ZHAO ; Yuancheng HUANG ; Yong XIONG ; Zuojiong GONG ; Qiaoxia TONG ; Jiazhi LIAO ; Feng FANG ; Xiaoping LUO ; Qin NING
Chinese Journal of Clinical Infectious Diseases 2023;16(1):26-32
Novel coronavirus Omicron variant infection can cause severe illness and even death in certain populations. Omicron variant infection may lead to systemic inflammatory response, coagulation disorder, multi-organ dysfunction and other pathophysiological changes, which are different from other Novel coronavirus variants to a certain extent, so therapeutic strategies should not be the same. The National Medical Center for Major Public Health Events invited experts in fields of infectious diseases, respiratory medicine, intensive care, pediatrics and fever clinic to develop this quick guideline based on the current best evidence and extensive clinical practices. This quick guideline aims to standardize the diagnosis and treatment of novel coronavirus Omicron infection, and to improve the disease management abilities of clinicians.
9.Glutamate-releasing BEST1 channel is a new target for neuroprotection against ischemic stroke with wide time window.
Shuai XIONG ; Hui XIAO ; Meng SUN ; Yunjie LIU ; Ling GAO ; Ke XU ; Haiying LIANG ; Nan JIANG ; Yuhui LIN ; Lei CHANG ; Haiyin WU ; Dongya ZHU ; Chunxia LUO
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B 2023;13(7):3008-3026
Many efforts have been made to understand excitotoxicity and develop neuroprotectants for the therapy of ischemic stroke. The narrow treatment time window is still to be solved. Given that the ischemic core expanded over days, treatment with an extended time window is anticipated. Bestrophin 1 (BEST1) belongs to a bestrophin family of calcium-activated chloride channels. We revealed an increase in neuronal BEST1 expression and function within the peri-infarct from 8 to 48 h after ischemic stroke in mice. Interfering the protein expression or inhibiting the channel function of BEST1 by genetic manipulation displayed neuroprotective effects and improved motor functional deficits. Using electrophysiological recordings, we demonstrated that extrasynaptic glutamate release through BEST1 channel resulted in delayed excitotoxicity. Finally, we confirmed the therapeutic efficacy of pharmacological inhibition of BEST1 during 6-72 h post-ischemia in rodents. This delayed treatment prevented the expansion of infarct volume and the exacerbation of neurological functions. Our study identifies the glutamate-releasing BEST1 channel as a potential therapeutic target against ischemic stroke with a wide time window.
10.Analysis and prediction of thyroid cancer morbidity and mortality trends in China.
Cheng Zhi YAO ; Min ZHANG ; Yu Ke ZENG ; Yi Yun ZHANG ; Xia WU ; Wen Jing XIONG ; Wei Qing RANG
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2023;44(6):917-923
Objective: To analyze the morbidity and mortality trends of thyroid cancer in China from 1990 to 2019, explore the causes of the trends, and predict morbidity and mortality in the future. Methods: The morbidity and mortality data of thyroid cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease database. The Joinpoint regression model was used to describe the change trends. Based on the morbidity and mortality data from 2012 to 2019, a grey model GM (1,1) was constructed to predict the trends in the next ten years. The model was tested by the posterior error method and residual test method. Results: In all populations, men and women, the AAPC values of the crude morbidity rates were 4.15% (95%CI: 3.86%-4.44%, P<0.001), 5.98% (95%CI: 5.65%-6.31%, P<0.001) and 3.23% (95%CI: 2.94%-3.53%, P<0.001) respectively, the AAPC values of age-standardized morbidity rates were 2.47% (95%CI: 2.12%-2.83%, P<0.001), 3.98% (95%CI: 3.68%-4.29%, P<0.001), 1.65% (95%CI: 1.38%-1.93%, P<0.001), the AAPC values of crude mortality rates were 2.09% (95%CI: 1.92%-2.25%, P<0.001), 3.68% (95%CI: 3.45%-3.90%, P<0.001), 0.60% (95%CI: 0.50%-0.71%, P<0.001). The age-standardized mortality rates in men showed a fluctuating trend of first decrease (1990-1994), then increase (1994-2012), and then decrease (2012-2019) (AAPC=1.35%, 95%CI: 1.16%-1.53%, P<0.001). The age-standardized mortality rate in women continuously decreased (AAPC=-1.70%, 95%CI: -1.82%- -1.58%, P<0.001). The GM (1,1) models can be used for medium and long-term predictions. The results of the residual test show that the average relative error values of all models are less than 10.00%, the prediction accuracy values are more than 80.00%, and the prediction effects are good. The results of the posterior error method show that all the prediction results are good except the qualified prediction of the age-standardized morbidity rate in men. In 2029, the crude morbidity rates would increase to 3.57/100 000, 2.78/100 000, and 4.40/100 000, respectively, and the age-standardized incidence rates would increase to 2.38/100 000, 1.89/100 000, and 2.88/100 000, respectively, the crude mortality rates would increase to 0.57/100 000, 0.62/100 000 and 0.53/100 000, and the age-standardized mortality rates would decrease to 0.33/100 000, 0.42/100 000 and 0.27/100 000 in all population, men and women in China. Conclusions: The overall, gender- specific age-standardized mortality rates showed downward trends in the last decade or so, and the prediction results showed that it might further decline. However, the crude morbidity rates, age-standardized and crude mortality rates have been on the rise, and the population aging is becoming increasingly serious in China, which requires close attention and targeted prevention and control measures.
Male
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Humans
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Female
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Morbidity
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Thyroid Neoplasms/epidemiology*
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Aging
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China/epidemiology*

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