1.Comparison of the effects of three time series models in predicting the trend of erythrocyte blood demand
Yajuan QIU ; Jianping ZHANG ; Jia LUO ; Peilin LI ; Mengzhuo LUO ; Qiongying LI ; Ge LIU ; Qing LEI ; Kai LIAO
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion 2025;38(2):257-262
[Objective] To analyse and predict the tendencies of using erythrocyte blood in Changsha based on the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, long short-term memory (LSTM) and ARIMA-LSTM combination model, so as to provide reliable basis for designing a feasible and effective blood inventory management strategy. [Methods] The data of erythrocyte usage from hospitals in Changsha between January 2012 and December 2023 were collected, and ARIMA model, LSTM model and ARIMA-LSTM combination model were established. The actual erythrocyte consumption from January to May 2024 were used to assess and verify the prediction effect of the models. The extrapolation prediction accuracy of the models were tested using two evaluation indicators: mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE), and then the prediction performance of the model was compared. [Results] The RMSE of LSTM model, optimal model ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 and ARIMA-LSTM combination model were respectively 5 206.66, 3 096.43 and 2 745.75, and the MAPE were 18.78%,11.54% and 9.76% respectively, which indicated that the ARIMA-LSTM combination model was more accurate than the ARIMA model and LSTM model, and the prediction results was basically consistent with the actual situation. [Conclusion] The ARIMA-LSTM model can better predict the clinical erythrocyte consumption in Changsha in the short term.
2.Construction of a postoperative mortality risk model for patients with acute aortic dissection based on XGBoost-SHAP method
Xin ZHANG ; Min FANG ; Yi CAO ; Ting-Ting LI ; Xian-Kong LIU ; Jia-Yi DANG ; Xue-Sen ZHAO ; Hong-Qin REN ; Jia-Ze GENG ; Kai-Wen WANG ; Tie-Sheng HAN ; Yong-Bo ZHAO ; Dong MA
Medical Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army 2025;50(10):1226-1234
Objective To develop a predictive model for postoperative mortality risk in patients with acute aortic dissection(AAD)using the Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost)algorithm combined with Shapley Additive Explanation(SHAP),and to establish a prediction website to serve as a diagnostic and therapeutic support platform for clinicians and patients.Methods A retrospective cohort study design was adopted.Data from 782 AAD patients who underwent surgical treatment at the Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 2013 to December 2023 were collected,including basic information and initial serum biomarker test results.Patients were randomly divided into training and test sets at a 7:3 ratio.An external validation set consisting of 313 AAD patients admitted to the Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 2020 to December 2023 was also established for further model validation.Variables were screened using LASSO regression,and an XGBoost machine learning model was constructed and interpreted using SHAP.The predictive performance of the model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis.Using the Shiny package,the XGBoost model was deployed to shinyapps.io to create a prediction website for postoperative mortality risk in AAD patients.One patient was selected by simple random sampling from the test set and the external validation set respectively for the prediction example on the Shiny webpage.Results The XGBoost model demonstrated high predictive performance for postoperative mortality in AAD patients,with area under the ROC curve(AUC)values of 0.928(95%CI 0.901-0.956)in the training set,0.919(95%CI 0.891-0.949)in the test set,and 0.941(95%CI 0.915-0.967)in the external validation set.SHAP values indicated the following order of variable importance in the model(from highest to lowest):"lactate dehydrogenase""blood chlorine""multiple organ injury""carbon dioxide combining power""prothrombin time""α-hydroxybutyric acid""creatine kinase isoenzyme""Stanford classification""combined use of bedside blood purification""gender""acute kidney injury""gastrointestinal bleeding""brain injury"and"shock".A risk prediction website for adverse postoperative outcomes in AAD patients was developed using XGBoost-SHAP method(https://dun-dunxiaolu.shinyapps.io/document/)and validated with examples.One randomly selected patient from each of the test and external validation sets was applied:the predicted mortality risk value for patient 1(who died postoperatively)was 0.9539,and that for patient 2(who survived postoperatively)was 0.0206.Conclusions The XGBoost-SHAP model demonstrates high accuracy in predicting postoperative mortality risk for AAD patients.The online prediction tool established based on this model enhances the identification efficiency of high-risk postoperative mortality patients.
3.Scientific connotation of "blood stasis toxin" in hypoxic microenvironment: its "soil" function in tumor progression and micro-level treatment approaches.
Wei FAN ; Yuan-Lin LYU ; Xiao-Chen NI ; Kai-Yuan ZHANG ; Chu-Hang WANG ; Jia-Ning GUO ; Guang-Ji ZHANG ; Jian-Bo HUANG ; Tao JIANG
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(12):3483-3488
The tumor microenvironment is a crucial factor in tumor occurrence and progression. The hypoxic microenvironment is widely present in tumor tissue and is a key endogenous factor accelerating tumor deterioration. The "blood stasis toxin" theory, as an emerging perspective in tumor research, is regarded as the unique "soil" in tumor progression from the perspective of traditional Chinese medicine(TCM) due to its dynamic evolution mechanism, which closely resembles the formation of the hypoxic microenvironment. Scientifically integrating TCM theories with the biological characteristics of tumors and exploring precise syndrome differentiation and treatment strategies are key to achieving comprehensive tumor prevention and control. This article focused on the hypoxic microenvironment of the tumor, elucidating its formation mechanisms and evolutionary processes and carefully analyzing the internal relationship between the "blood stasis toxin" theory and the hypoxic microenvironment. Additionally, it explored the interaction among blood stasis, toxic pathogens, and hypoxic environment and proposed micro-level prevention and treatment strategies targeting the hypoxic microenvironment based on the "blood stasis toxin" theory, aiming to provide TCM-based theoretical support and therapeutic approaches for precise regulation of the hypoxic microenvironment.
Humans
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Tumor Microenvironment/drug effects*
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Neoplasms/therapy*
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Animals
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Medicine, Chinese Traditional
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Disease Progression
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal
4.Functional chimeric perforator flap of medial femoral condyle for osteochondral and soft tissue reconstruction in hand and foot joints.
Mingwu ZHOU ; Yanfeng LI ; Yang GAO ; Kai ZHANG ; Zhiwei ZHAO ; Kuo WEI ; Jia CHEN
Chinese Journal of Reparative and Reconstructive Surgery 2025;39(9):1106-1113
OBJECTIVE:
To evaluate the effectiveness of free medial femoral condyle (MFC) functional chimeric perforator flap (FCPF) transplantation in reconstructing joint function by repairing concomitant osteochondral defects and soft tissue defect in hand and foot joints.
METHODS:
A retrospective analysis was performed on 6 patients (5 males, 1 female; mean age of 33.4 years, range 21-56 years) with traumatic osteochondral joint defects and associated tendon, nerve, and soft tissue defects treated between January 2019 and November 2024. Defect locations included metacarpal heads (n=2), metacarpophalangeal joint (n=1), first metatarsal head (n=1), base of first proximal phalanx (n=1), and talar head (n=1), with soft tissue defects in all cases. Osteochondral defect sizes ranged from 1.5 cm×1.2 cm×0.7 cm to 4.0 cm×0.6 cm×0.6 cm, and skin defects ranged from 4 cm×3 cm to 13 cm×4 cm. The stage Ⅰ treatment included debridement, antibiotic-loaded bone cement filling of bone-cartilage defects, fracture internal fixation, and coverage with vacuum sealing drainage. Stage Ⅱ involved harvesting a free MFC- FCPF included an osteochondral flap (range of 1.5 cm×1.2 cm×0.7 cm to 4.0 cm×0.6 cm×0.6 cm), gracilis and/or semitendinosus tendon grafts (length of 4-13 cm), saphenous nerve graft (length of 3.5-4.0 cm), and a perforator skin flap (range of 6 cm×4 cm to 14 cm×6 cm), each with independent vascular supply. The flap was transplanted to reconstruct joint function. Donor sites were closed primarily or with skin grafting. Flap survival was monitored postoperatively. Radiographic assessment was used to evaluate bone/joint healing. At last follow-up, the joint function recovery was assessed.
RESULTS:
All 6 MFC-FCPF survived completely, with primary healing of wounds and donor sites. All patients were followed up 6-44 months (mean, 23.5 months). The flaps at metacarpophalangeal joint in 1 case and at ankle joint in 1 case were treated with degreasing repair because of their bulky appearance, while the other flaps had good appearance and texture. At 3 months after operation, the visual analogue scale (VAS) score for pain during joint movement of recipient site was 0-2, with an average of 0.7; at last follow-up, the VAS score of the donor site was 0-1, with an average of 0.3. According to the Paley fracture healing scoring system, the osteochondral healing of all the 6 patients was excellent. The range of motion of the metacarpophalangeal joint in 3 cases was 75%, 90%, and 100% of contralateral side respectively, the range of motion of the metatarsophalangeal joint in 2 cases was 65% and 95% of contralateral side respectively, and the range of motion of the ankle joint in 1 case was 90% of contralateral side. The hand function was evaluated as excellent in 2 cases and good in 1 case according to the upper limb function evaluation standard of the Chinese Medical Association Hand Surgery Society, and the foot function was evaluated as excellent in 2 cases and fair in 1 case according to the Maryland foot function score of 93, 91, and 69, respectively. The International Knee Documentation Committee (IKDC) score of 6 knees was 91-99, with an average of 95.2.
CONCLUSION
The free MFC-FCPF enables precise anatomical joint reconstruction with three-dimensional restoration of tendon, nerve, capsule, and soft tissue defects, effectively restoring joint function and improving quality of life.
Humans
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Male
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Adult
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Female
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Middle Aged
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Retrospective Studies
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Plastic Surgery Procedures/methods*
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Soft Tissue Injuries/surgery*
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Perforator Flap/blood supply*
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Femur/surgery*
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Young Adult
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Foot Joints/injuries*
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Treatment Outcome
5.Digital study of IdebergⅡregional pelvic fracture anatomical plate based on 3D metal printing technology.
Yi ZHANG ; Jia-Kai ZHANG ; Jun-Long WU ; Yi ZHENG
China Journal of Orthopaedics and Traumatology 2025;38(3):293-297
OBJECTIVE:
To establish digital model of Ideberg typeⅡregional glenoid fracture anatomical plate with 3D metal printing technology.
METHODS:
The scapular imaging data of a 34-year-old healthy male volunteer were retrospectively selected. Mimics 15.01, NX 12.0 and other software were used to design Ideberg typeⅡ regional scapular fracture guide plate system. STL data were input into a metal 3D printer to print 1∶1 scapular model and anatomical plate of scapular pelvis with guide sleeve. The fit of the plate was tested in vitro and the accuracy of the screw position was evaluated by imaging. The printing time of scapular model, design of the nail path and making time of the anatomic guided plate were recorded.
RESULTS:
3D metal-printed Ideberg typeⅡ guide plate for scapular fracture fitted well to 3D printed scapular model, the locking screw was oriented accurately, and X-ray and CT showed good screw position. The printing time of scapula model, time of nail path design and special-shaped anatomical guide plate production were 52.0, 15.0 and 320 min, respectively.
CONCLUSION
Anatomical plates based on 3D metal printing technology could achieve good adhesion of Ideberg typeⅡ regional fractures and precise screw placement, providing a new and accurate surgical method for the treatment of Ideberg typeⅡ glenoid fractures.
Humans
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Printing, Three-Dimensional
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Male
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Adult
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Bone Plates
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Fractures, Bone/diagnostic imaging*
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Fracture Fixation, Internal/methods*
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Pelvic Bones/surgery*
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Metals
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Scapula/surgery*
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Models, Anatomic
6.Isoliquiritigenin alleviates abnormal endoplasmic reticulum stress induced by type 2 diabetes mellitus
Kai-yi LAI ; Wen-wen DING ; Jia-yu ZHANG ; Xiao-xue YANG ; Wen-bo GAO ; Yao XIAO ; Ying LIU
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica 2025;60(1):130-140
Isoliquiritigenin (ISL) is a chalcone compound isolated from licorice, known for its anti-diabetic, anti-cancer, and antioxidant properties. Our previous study has demonstrated that ISL effectively lowers blood glucose levels in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) mice and improves disturbances in glucolipid and energy metabolism induced by T2DM. This study aims to further investigate the effects of ISL on alleviating abnormal endoplasmic reticulum stress (ERS) caused by T2DM and to elucidate its molecular mechanisms.
7.Geographical Inference Study of Dust Samples From Four Cities in China Based on ITS2 Sequencing
Wen-Jun ZHANG ; Yao-Sen FENG ; Jia-Jin PENG ; Kai FENG ; Ye DENG ; Ke-Lai KANG ; Le WANG
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2025;52(4):970-981
ObjectiveIn the realm of forensic science, dust is a valuable type of trace evidence with immense potential for intricate investigations. With the development of DNA sequencing technologies, there is a heightened interest among researchers in unraveling the complex tapestry of microbial communities found within dust samples. Furthermore, striking disparities in the microbial community composition have been noted among dust samples from diverse geographical regions, heralding new possibilities for geographical inference based on microbial DNA analysis. The pivotal role of microbial community data from dust in geographical inference is significant, underscoring its critical importance within the field of forensic science. This study aims to delve deeply into the nuances of fungal community composition across the urban landscapes of Beijing, Fuzhou, Kunming, and Urumqi in China. It evaluates the accuracy of biogeographic inference facilitated by the internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2) fungal sequencing while concurrently laying a robust foundation for the operational integration of environmental DNA into geographical inference mechanisms. MethodsITS2 region of the fungal genomes was amplified using universal primers known as 5.8S-Fun/ITS4-Fun, and the resulting DNA fragments were sequenced on the Illumina MiSeq FGx platform. Non-metric multidimensional scaling analysis (NMDS) was employed to visually represent the differences between samples, while analysis of similarities (ANOSIM) and permutational multivariate analysis of variance (PERMANOVA) were utilized to statistically evaluate the dissimilarities in community composition across samples. Furthermore, using Linear Discriminant Analysis Effect Size (LEfSe) analysis to identify and filter out species that exhibit significant differences between various cities. In addition, we leveraged SourceTracker to predict the geographic origins of the dust samples. ResultsAmong the four cities of Beijing, Fuzhou, Kunming and Urumqi, Beijing has the highest species richness. The results of species annotation showed that there were significant differences in the species composition and relative abundance of fungal communities in the four cities. NMDS analysis revealed distinct clustering patterns of samples based on their biogeographic origins in multidimensional space. Samples from the same city exhibited clear clustering, while samples from different cities showed separation along the first axis. The results from ANOSIM and PERMANOVA confirmed the significant differences in fungal community composition between the four cities, with the most pronounced distinctions observed between Fuzhou and Urumqi. Notably, the biogeographic origins of all known dust samples were successfully predicted. ConclusionSignificant differences are observed in the fungal species composition and relative abundance among the cities of Beijing, Fuzhou, Kunming, and Urumqi. Employing fungal ITS2 sequencing on dust samples from these urban areas enables accurate inference of biogeographical locations. The high feasibility of utilizing fungal community data in dust for biogeographical inferences holds particular promise in the field of forensic science.
8.Comparative efficacy of Ilizarov ring external fixation and unilateral rail external fixation in the treatment of infected bone defects following surgery for tibial fractures
Kai ZHANG ; Yong LI ; Jia CHANG ; Zhiqiang LIN ; Xiaolong HUANG ; Zequn DENG ; Jian LIU ; Jiangbo HAN ; Fei TAN ; Jiankang ZENG ; Shenghu ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Trauma 2025;41(10):961-968
Objective:To compare the efficacy of Ilizarov ring external fixation and unilateral rail external fixation in the treatment of infected bone defects following surgery for tibial fractures.Methods:A retrospective cohort study was conducted to analyze the clinical data of 50 patients with infected bone defects after surgery for tibial fractures, who were admitted to the 940th Hospital of the Joint Logistics Support Force of the PLA from August 2019 to November 2021, including 37 males and 13 females, aged 19-59 years [(42.2±8.8)years]. After debridement and osteotomy, 28 patients were treated with Ilizarov ring external fixation (Ilizarov group) and 22 with unilateral rail external fixation (unilateral fixation group). All the patients in the two groups had previously undergone internal fixation with plates or Kirschner wires for tibial fracture before bone transport. Bone transport started at one week for three stages after successful infection control and osteotomy and was conducted. The following parameters were compared between the two groups: frame-wearing time and healing index after bone transport, self-rating anxiety scale (SAS) grade at 6 months after bone transport, Paley score and Association for the Study and Application of the Method of Ilizarov (ASAMI) score at the last follow-up, Hospital for Special Surgery (HSS) knee score and Baird-Jackson ankle score on admission, after external fixator removal and at the last follow-up, and incidence of postoperative complications.Results:All the patients were followed up for 28-36 months [(32.5±1.6)months]. There were no significant differences in frame-wearing time or healing index between the two groups after bone transport ( P>0.05). At 6 months after bone transport, the SAS grade in the unilateral fixation group (13 patients with mild anxiety, 8 with moderate anxiety, and 1 with severe anxiety) was better than that in the Ilizarov group (6 patients with mild anxiety, 19 with moderate anxiety, 3 with severe anxiety) ( P<0.01). No significant differences were found in the Paley score or ASAMI score between the two groups at the last follow-up ( P>0.05). There were no significant differences in HSS knee score or Baird-Jackson ankle score between the two groups on admission, after external fixator removal or at the last follow-up ( P>0.05). No significant differences were observed in the incidence of pin tract infection, poor healing, infection in the bone elongation area, or re-fracture between the two groups ( P>0.05). The incidence of postoperative axial deviation was 0 in the Ilizarov group, lower than 18% in the unilateral fixation group (4/22) ( P<0.05). Conclusion:Although Ilizarov ring external fixation and unilateral rail external fixation demonstrate comparable efficacy in the treatment of infected bone defects after surgery for tibial fractures, the former provides superior mechanical stability and postoperative axial deviation correction, while the latter offers advantages in reducing psychological burden and enhancing treatment tolerance.
9.Molecular mechanisms and clinical applications of tumor budding in hepatocellular carcinoma
Hongbin ZHANG ; Kai TAN ; Zhenyu YANG ; Shengxiong JIA ; Xilin DU
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2025;41(5):963-967
Tumor budding is a distinct pathomorphological feature observed in various types of solid tumor. In recent years, tumor budding has been recognized as an important biological feature associated with tumor invasion and metastasis, and it has become a new focus in the research on tumor progression. Although studies have explored the role of tumor budding in different types of tumor, there are studies in the field of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This article systematically reviews the research advances in tumor budding in HCC, with a focus on the mechanism of tumor budding, the association between tumor budding and tumor progression, and the potential application of tumor budding in prognostic assessment, in order to provide new insights and strategies for the early diagnosis and treatment of HCC.
10.Research progress in the mechanism and treatment of post traumatic platelet dysfunction.
Kai LI ; Peixin WANG ; Kun WEI ; Jia LIU ; Xue BAI ; Tiantao ZHANG ; Chen ZHANG ; Shihong XU
Chinese Journal of Cellular and Molecular Immunology 2025;41(11):1041-1046
Trauma is the main cause of death and disability. Patients with severe trauma have hemorrhagic shock, traumatic coagulopathy and other diseases, which increase the risk of death. Platelets are important in the hemostatic response, but their function is rapidly dysregulated in trauma patients, leading to traumatic coagulopathy, blood loss, and early death. In addition to their role in hemostasis, platelets act as coordinators of the initial immune response, which can lead to immunothrombosis, organ dysfunction, and increased late mortality. At present, the treatment of post traumatic platelet dysfunction is mainly based on early hemostasis, and late prevention and treatment of thrombosis and organ dysfunction. In this review, the characteristics, underlying mechanisms, diagnosis and treatment strategies of platelet dysfunction in different periods are summarized, to provide ideas for studying the mechanism of platelet dysfunction after trauma and the treatment strategy for trauma patients.
Humans
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Wounds and Injuries/therapy*
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Blood Platelets/metabolism*
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Blood Platelet Disorders/etiology*
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Animals
;
Hemostasis

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