1.Long-term survival outcomes and prognostic factors following radical resection of pancreatic body and tail cancer:a retrospective analysis of 992 patients
Dong XU ; Yang WU ; Kai ZHANG ; Nan LYU ; Qianqian WANG ; Pengfei WU ; Jie YIN ; Baobao CAI ; Guodong SHI ; Jianzhen LIN ; Yazhou WANG ; Lingdi YIN ; Zipeng LU ; Min TU ; Jianmin CHEN ; Feng GUO ; Jishu WEI ; Junli WU ; Wentao GAO ; Cuncai DAI ; Yi MIAO ; Kuirong JIANG
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2026;64(1):46-54
Objective:To investigate the survival outcomes and prognostic factors in patients undergoing radical resection for pancreatic body and tail cancer.Methods:A retrospective case series study was conducted on 992 patients who underwent radical resection for pancreatic body and tail cancer at the Pancreatic Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from January 2016 to June 2024. In this study, 577 (58.2%) were male and 415 (41.8%) were female,with an age of (65±9) years (range: 26 to 86 years). Follow-up continued until June 2024. Survival rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method,and prognostic factors were identified using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models.Results:Among 992 patients,open surgery was the predominant approach (89.1%, 884/992), and radical antegrade modular pancreatosplenectomy (RAMPS) was performed in 317 patients (32.0%). Combined organ resection,venous resection,and arterial resection were performed in 23.5%, 9.3%,and 11.2% of patients,respectively. The rates of R0, R1-1 mm, and R1-direct resections were 49.8% (494/992),41.5% (412/992), and 8.7% (86/992),respectively. Stage ⅡB was the most common TNM stage (32.2%,319/992). A total of 801 patients (80.8%) received adjuvant chemotherapy. The median follow-up period was 32.0(8.8) months(range:3.2 to 105.3 months),during which 508 patients (51.2%) died. The overall median survival (OS) was 26.4 months,with 1-,3-, and 5-year survival rates of 79.0%,40.0%, and 29.0%, respectively. In the recent five years (from 2020 to 2024), the median OS improved significantly to 34.1 months compared to 20.0 months from 2016 to 2019 ( P<0.01). Histological subtype analysis showed that the median OS time was 26.7 months for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC, n=855),58.9 months for invasive intraductal papillary mucinous carcinoma (IPMC, n=32),and 15.7 months for adenosquamous carcinoma of pancreas (ASCP, n=73) ( P=0.001). Among PDAC patients, adjuvant chemotherapy significantly improved survival (29.1 months vs. 14.4 months, P<0.01);in IPMC patients, adjuvant chemotherapy also extended survival (65.7 months vs. 58.9 months, P=0.047). Although ASCP patients receiving chemotherapy had a longer median OS time than those without (18.8 months vs. 8.9 months),the difference was not statistically significant ( P=0.151). Multivariate Cox regression analysis in PDAC patients indicated that adjuvant chemotherapy, R0 resection, T stage,N stage,and tumor differentiation were independent prognostic factors ( P<0.01). The median OS time by TNM stage was:not reached for stage ⅠA, 51.6 months for ⅠB, 25.5 months for ⅡA, 23.7 months for ⅡB, 23.0 months for Ⅲ, and 14.4 months for Ⅳ. The median OS time for R0,R1-1 mm,and R1-direct resections was 34.1,24.7,and 15.7 months,respectively ( P<0.01). Conclusion:Adjuvant chemotherapy,R0 resection,tumor stage,and differentiation are independent prognostic factors for pancreatic body and tail cancer.
2.Effects of Huanglian Jiedutang on Neutrophil Infiltration in Brain of MCAO Mice via Regulation of Chemokine Expression in Exosomes
Haojia ZHANG ; Kai WANG ; Zijin SUN ; Chunyu WANG ; Wei SHAO ; Kunjing LIU ; Liyang DONG ; Dan CHEN ; Wenxiu XU ; Chuanzun WANG ; Wen WANG ; Changxiang LI ; Xueqian WANG ; Fafeng CHENG ; Qingguo WANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(8):42-53
ObjectiveTo investigate whether Huanglian Jiedutang can inhibit neutrophil infiltration in the brains of middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO) mice by regulating the expression of neutrophil-related chemokines in exosomes, thereby achieving therapeutic effects. MethodsA total of 130 male specific pathogen-free (SPF) C57BL/6J mice were randomly divided into four groups: Sham-operated group, MCAO model group, Huanglian Jiedutang group (6 g·kg-1), and Ginaton group (21.6 mg·kg-1), with 10 mice in the Ginaton group and 40 mice in each of the remaining three groups. Mice in the Huanglian Jiedutang group and the Ginaton group were administered the corresponding drugs by oral gavage once daily at a volume of 0.15 mL·(10 g)-1 for 7 consecutive days, while the sham-operated and model groups received an equal volume of saline via the same route. After 7 days, MCAO surgery was performed. The distal and proximal ends of the right common carotid artery (CCA) were ligated, a small incision was made between the two ligatures, and a silicone rubber-coated monofilament with a rounded tip was inserted into the lumen to occlude the CCA. The filament was left in place for 1 h to establish a focal cerebral ischemia model. At 24 h after modeling, mice were evaluated. Neurological function was assessed using the Longa score. Cerebral infarct volume was measured by 2,3,5-triphenyltetrazolium chloride (TTC) staining. Cerebral blood flow was observed by laser speckle imaging. Hematoxylin and eosin (HE) staining and Nissl staining were used to observe pathological changes in brain tissues. Exosomes were isolated from mouse plasma and brain tissues by ultracentrifugation and molecular size exclusion and identified by electron microscopy, particle size analysis, and protein blotting. Long-chain RNA libraries of exosomes were constructed and sequenced. Real-time quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (Real-time PCR) was used to detect the mRNA expression of inflammatory factors and neutrophil-related chemokines in exosomes from plasma and brain tissues of each group. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was used to detect the protein expression of inflammatory factors and neutrophil-related chemokines in exosomes from brain tissues of each group. Immunohistochemistry was used to detect the expression of the neutrophil-specific protein myeloperoxidase (MPO) in the brains of mice in each group. ResultsCompared with the sham-operated group, the model group showed decreased neurological function scores (P<0.01), obvious cerebral infarction (P<0.01), reduced cerebral blood flow (P<0.01), neuronal necrosis in the brain, and decreased numbers of Nissl bodies (P<0.01). The mRNA expression levels of IL-1β, MPO, CXCL1, CXCL2, CXCL3, CXCL10, CCL2, and CCL3 in exosomes from plasma and brain tissues were significantly increased (P<0.05, P<0.01). The protein expression levels of IL-1β, MPO, CXCL2, and CXCL10 in exosomes from brain tissues were increased (P<0.05, P<0.01), and MPO-positive rates and mean optical density values in brain tissues were elevated (P<0.01). Compared with the model group, the Huanglian Jiedutang group and the Ginaton group showed increased neurological function scores (P<0.05), reduced cerebral infarct volume (P<0.01), restored cerebral blood flow (P<0.01), reduced necrotic cells in the brain, and increased numbers of Nissl bodies (P<0.01). In the Huanglian Jiedutang group, the mRNA expression levels of IL-1β, MPO, CXCL1, CXCL2, CXCL3, CXCL10, CCL2, and CCL3 in exosomes from plasma and brain tissues were decreased (P<0.05, P<0.01). The protein expression levels of IL-1β, MPO, CXCL2, and CXCL10 in exosomes from brain tissues were reduced (P<0.05, P<0.01), and MPO-positive rates and mean optical density values in brain tissues were decreased (P<0.01). ConclusionHuanglian Jiedutang can effectively regulate the expression of neutrophil-related chemokines in exosomes from plasma and brain tissues of MCAO mice, thereby reducing neutrophil infiltration in the brain and achieving therapeutic effects.
3.Effects of Huanglian Jiedutang on Neutrophil Infiltration in Brain of MCAO Mice via Regulation of Chemokine Expression in Exosomes
Haojia ZHANG ; Kai WANG ; Zijin SUN ; Chunyu WANG ; Wei SHAO ; Kunjing LIU ; Liyang DONG ; Dan CHEN ; Wenxiu XU ; Chuanzun WANG ; Wen WANG ; Changxiang LI ; Xueqian WANG ; Fafeng CHENG ; Qingguo WANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(8):42-53
ObjectiveTo investigate whether Huanglian Jiedutang can inhibit neutrophil infiltration in the brains of middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO) mice by regulating the expression of neutrophil-related chemokines in exosomes, thereby achieving therapeutic effects. MethodsA total of 130 male specific pathogen-free (SPF) C57BL/6J mice were randomly divided into four groups: Sham-operated group, MCAO model group, Huanglian Jiedutang group (6 g·kg-1), and Ginaton group (21.6 mg·kg-1), with 10 mice in the Ginaton group and 40 mice in each of the remaining three groups. Mice in the Huanglian Jiedutang group and the Ginaton group were administered the corresponding drugs by oral gavage once daily at a volume of 0.15 mL·(10 g)-1 for 7 consecutive days, while the sham-operated and model groups received an equal volume of saline via the same route. After 7 days, MCAO surgery was performed. The distal and proximal ends of the right common carotid artery (CCA) were ligated, a small incision was made between the two ligatures, and a silicone rubber-coated monofilament with a rounded tip was inserted into the lumen to occlude the CCA. The filament was left in place for 1 h to establish a focal cerebral ischemia model. At 24 h after modeling, mice were evaluated. Neurological function was assessed using the Longa score. Cerebral infarct volume was measured by 2,3,5-triphenyltetrazolium chloride (TTC) staining. Cerebral blood flow was observed by laser speckle imaging. Hematoxylin and eosin (HE) staining and Nissl staining were used to observe pathological changes in brain tissues. Exosomes were isolated from mouse plasma and brain tissues by ultracentrifugation and molecular size exclusion and identified by electron microscopy, particle size analysis, and protein blotting. Long-chain RNA libraries of exosomes were constructed and sequenced. Real-time quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (Real-time PCR) was used to detect the mRNA expression of inflammatory factors and neutrophil-related chemokines in exosomes from plasma and brain tissues of each group. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was used to detect the protein expression of inflammatory factors and neutrophil-related chemokines in exosomes from brain tissues of each group. Immunohistochemistry was used to detect the expression of the neutrophil-specific protein myeloperoxidase (MPO) in the brains of mice in each group. ResultsCompared with the sham-operated group, the model group showed decreased neurological function scores (P<0.01), obvious cerebral infarction (P<0.01), reduced cerebral blood flow (P<0.01), neuronal necrosis in the brain, and decreased numbers of Nissl bodies (P<0.01). The mRNA expression levels of IL-1β, MPO, CXCL1, CXCL2, CXCL3, CXCL10, CCL2, and CCL3 in exosomes from plasma and brain tissues were significantly increased (P<0.05, P<0.01). The protein expression levels of IL-1β, MPO, CXCL2, and CXCL10 in exosomes from brain tissues were increased (P<0.05, P<0.01), and MPO-positive rates and mean optical density values in brain tissues were elevated (P<0.01). Compared with the model group, the Huanglian Jiedutang group and the Ginaton group showed increased neurological function scores (P<0.05), reduced cerebral infarct volume (P<0.01), restored cerebral blood flow (P<0.01), reduced necrotic cells in the brain, and increased numbers of Nissl bodies (P<0.01). In the Huanglian Jiedutang group, the mRNA expression levels of IL-1β, MPO, CXCL1, CXCL2, CXCL3, CXCL10, CCL2, and CCL3 in exosomes from plasma and brain tissues were decreased (P<0.05, P<0.01). The protein expression levels of IL-1β, MPO, CXCL2, and CXCL10 in exosomes from brain tissues were reduced (P<0.05, P<0.01), and MPO-positive rates and mean optical density values in brain tissues were decreased (P<0.01). ConclusionHuanglian Jiedutang can effectively regulate the expression of neutrophil-related chemokines in exosomes from plasma and brain tissues of MCAO mice, thereby reducing neutrophil infiltration in the brain and achieving therapeutic effects.
4.Mechanisms of Huanglian Jiedutang and Its Major Active Constituents in Inhibiting LPS-induced M1 Polarisation of BV2 Microglia
Haojia ZHANG ; Kai WANG ; Kunjing LIU ; Xin LAN ; Zijin SUN ; Chunyu WANG ; Wenyuan MA ; Wei SHAO ; Jinhua HAN ; Liyang DONG ; Changxiang LI ; Xueqian WANG ; Youxiang CUI ; Fafeng CHENG ; Qingguo WANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(11):44-55
ObjectiveTo investigate whether Huanglian Jiedutang (HLJD) and its major active constituents (geniposide, baicalin, and berberine) can inhibit the inflammatory response of BV2 cells under lipopolysaccharide (LPS) stimulation via the high-mobility group protein B1 (HMGB1)/Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4)/nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB) signaling pathway, and to explore differences in therapeutic efficacy among the three monomers, their combined formula, and HLJD under equal content ratios. MethodsBV2 microglial cells were used as the primary experimental model. Cell viability was assessed using the cell counting kit-8 (CCK-8) method to examine the effects of different concentrations of dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO, 0.8%, 0.4%, 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.05%) on cell viability. IncuCyte was employed to monitor the growth of cells under different concentrations of HLJD (200, 100, 50, 25, 12.5, 6.25 mg·L-1). Nitric oxide (NO) assay was used to screen the optimal HLJD concentration. High-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) determined the content of geniposide, baicalin, and berberine in HLJD, and experimental groups were subsequently established according to the relative proportions of these constituents. CCK-8 assay evaluated cell viability under different treatments. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) measured levels of inflammatory factors (TNF-α, IL-1β, IL-6, IL-10) in the supernatant. Flow cytometry assessed the effects of treatments on M1-type polarization of BV2 cells. Western blot determined the expression levels of HMGB1, TLR4, and NF-κB-related proteins. ResultsCompared with the blank group, DMSO at concentrations ≤0.2% did not affect cell viability within 48 h. BV2 cell growth plateaued at 24 h after treatment with 200 mg·L-1 HLJD. Under stimulation with 2 mg·L-1 LPS, this concentration of HLJD effectively reduced NO release, and 6 h pre-treatment had a stronger inhibitory effect on NO than direct administration. HPLC results showed that 1 mg of HLJD freeze-dried powder contained approximately 24 μg of geniposide, 15 μg of baicalin, and 30 μg of berberine. Based on these ratios, experimental groups were blank, LPS (2 mg·L-1), HLJD (200 mg·L-1), monomer combination, geniposide (4.8 mg·L-1), baicalin (3 mg·L-1), and berberine (6 mg·L-1). The monomer combination group consisted of all three active constituents dissolved together. LPS and HLJD or its active constituents did not affect cell viability compared with the blank group. LPS significantly increased TNF-α, IL-1β, IL-6, and IL-10 in the supernatant (P<0.01). HLJD and its active constituents significantly reduced pro-inflammatory factors TNF-α, IL-1β, and IL-6 (P<0.05, P<0.01) while upregulating anti-inflammatory IL-10 (P<0.01), with the monomer combination showing the strongest effect (P<0.05, P<0.01). Compared with the blank group, LPS significantly increased the proportion of CD80⁺CD86⁺ (M1-type) BV2 cells (P<0.01). HLJD and its constituents partially inhibited M1 polarization (P<0.05, P<0.01), with the monomer combination exhibiting the most pronounced effect (P<0.05, P<0.01). Compared with the blank group, LPS upregulated HMGB1, TLR4, and NF-κB-related proteins (P<0.01), whereas HLJD and its active constituents significantly reduced their expression (P<0.05, P<0.01), with the monomer combination having the strongest regulatory effect (P<0.05, P<0.01). ConclusionHLJD and its major active constituents (geniposide, baicalin, berberine) can inhibit LPS-induced inflammatory responses in BV2 cells. The combination of the three active constituents demonstrates the most potent anti-inflammatory effect, significantly attenuating M1-type polarization of BV2 cells via the HMGB1/TLR4/NF-κB signaling pathway.
5.Long-term survival outcomes and prognostic factors following radical resection of pancreatic body and tail cancer:a retrospective analysis of 992 patients
Dong XU ; Yang WU ; Kai ZHANG ; Nan LYU ; Qianqian WANG ; Pengfei WU ; Jie YIN ; Baobao CAI ; Guodong SHI ; Jianzhen LIN ; Yazhou WANG ; Lingdi YIN ; Zipeng LU ; Min TU ; Jianmin CHEN ; Feng GUO ; Jishu WEI ; Junli WU ; Wentao GAO ; Cuncai DAI ; Yi MIAO ; Kuirong JIANG
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2026;64(1):46-54
Objective:To investigate the survival outcomes and prognostic factors in patients undergoing radical resection for pancreatic body and tail cancer.Methods:A retrospective case series study was conducted on 992 patients who underwent radical resection for pancreatic body and tail cancer at the Pancreatic Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from January 2016 to June 2024. In this study, 577 (58.2%) were male and 415 (41.8%) were female,with an age of (65±9) years (range: 26 to 86 years). Follow-up continued until June 2024. Survival rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method,and prognostic factors were identified using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models.Results:Among 992 patients,open surgery was the predominant approach (89.1%, 884/992), and radical antegrade modular pancreatosplenectomy (RAMPS) was performed in 317 patients (32.0%). Combined organ resection,venous resection,and arterial resection were performed in 23.5%, 9.3%,and 11.2% of patients,respectively. The rates of R0, R1-1 mm, and R1-direct resections were 49.8% (494/992),41.5% (412/992), and 8.7% (86/992),respectively. Stage ⅡB was the most common TNM stage (32.2%,319/992). A total of 801 patients (80.8%) received adjuvant chemotherapy. The median follow-up period was 32.0(8.8) months(range:3.2 to 105.3 months),during which 508 patients (51.2%) died. The overall median survival (OS) was 26.4 months,with 1-,3-, and 5-year survival rates of 79.0%,40.0%, and 29.0%, respectively. In the recent five years (from 2020 to 2024), the median OS improved significantly to 34.1 months compared to 20.0 months from 2016 to 2019 ( P<0.01). Histological subtype analysis showed that the median OS time was 26.7 months for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC, n=855),58.9 months for invasive intraductal papillary mucinous carcinoma (IPMC, n=32),and 15.7 months for adenosquamous carcinoma of pancreas (ASCP, n=73) ( P=0.001). Among PDAC patients, adjuvant chemotherapy significantly improved survival (29.1 months vs. 14.4 months, P<0.01);in IPMC patients, adjuvant chemotherapy also extended survival (65.7 months vs. 58.9 months, P=0.047). Although ASCP patients receiving chemotherapy had a longer median OS time than those without (18.8 months vs. 8.9 months),the difference was not statistically significant ( P=0.151). Multivariate Cox regression analysis in PDAC patients indicated that adjuvant chemotherapy, R0 resection, T stage,N stage,and tumor differentiation were independent prognostic factors ( P<0.01). The median OS time by TNM stage was:not reached for stage ⅠA, 51.6 months for ⅠB, 25.5 months for ⅡA, 23.7 months for ⅡB, 23.0 months for Ⅲ, and 14.4 months for Ⅳ. The median OS time for R0,R1-1 mm,and R1-direct resections was 34.1,24.7,and 15.7 months,respectively ( P<0.01). Conclusion:Adjuvant chemotherapy,R0 resection,tumor stage,and differentiation are independent prognostic factors for pancreatic body and tail cancer.
6.Network meta-analysis of first-line treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer with different chemotherapy combination regimens
Xiaoqing ZHANG ; Shuai LIU ; Kai ZHANG ; Beibei JI ; Wei LUAN
China Pharmacy 2025;36(17):2197-2204
OBJECTIVE To systematically evaluate the efficacy and safety of different chemotherapy combination regimens for first-line treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). METHODS PubMed, Cochrane Library, Embase and Web of Science were electronically searched to collect randomized controlled clinical trial (RCT) on first-line treatment for mCRC from January 1, 2000 to February 16, 2025. Two reviewers independently screened literature, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias of the included studies. Network meta-analysis was performed by using R4.4.3 and Stata 17.0 software. RESULTS A total of 28 RCTs, involving 16 intervention measures, were included. In terms of prolonging progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS), FOLFOX (5-fluorouracil+oxaliplatin+calcium folinate regimen)+cetuximab had the highest probability of ranking first. In terms of improving objective response rate (ORR), FOLFOXIRI (5-fluorouracil+oxaliplatin+irinotecan+calcium folinate regimen)+ bevacizumab and FOLFOX+bevacizumab+nivolumab had the highest probability of ranking first; in terms of the incidence of grade 3 or higher adverse reactions, FOLFOXIRI+panitumumab had the highest probability of ranking first; in subgroup analysis of KRAS wild-type patients, FOLFIRI (5-fluorouracil+irinotecan+calcium folinate regimen)+panitumumab and FOLFIRI+bevacizumab had the highest probability of ranking first in terms of prolonging PFS and OS, respectively; in terms of ORR, FOLFOXIRI+ cetuximab had the highest probability of ranking first. CONCLUSIONS In first-line treatment for mCRC, FOLFOX combined with targeted therapy has advantages in terms of efficacy and safety. However, individualized treatment strategies should be formulated based on the KRAS gene status and tumor location of patients.
7.Induction of apoptosis in hepatocellular carcinoma cells by polyphyllin 9 through regulating the Fas/FasL sig-naling pathway and the inhibitory effect on the growth of transplanted tumor in nude mice
Minna YAO ; Wei ZHANG ; Kai GAO ; Ruili LI ; Ying YIN ; Chao GUO ; Yunyang LU ; Haifeng TANG ; Jingwen WANG
China Pharmacy 2025;36(18):2238-2243
OBJECTIVE To investigate the induction of apoptosis in hepatocellular carcinoma cells by polyphyllin 9 (PP9) through the regulation of the Fas/Fas ligand (FasL) signaling pathway, and its inhibitory effect on the growth of transplanted tumor in nude mice. METHODS Based on the screening of cell lines and intervention conditions, HepG2 cells were selected as the experimental subject to investigate the effects of 2 μmol/L and 4 μmol/L PP9 treatment on cell colony formation activity, apoptosis rate, as well as the protein expressions of Fas, FasL, cleaved caspase-8 and cleaved caspase-3. Additionally, Fas inhibitor KR- 33493 was introduced to investigate the underlying mechanism of PP9’s anti-hepatocellular carcinoma activity. Using HepG2 cell tumor-bearing nude mice model as the object, and 5-fluorouracil (20 mg/kg) as the positive control, the effects of 10 mg/kg PP9 on tumor volume, tumor mass, and the protein expressions of the nuclear proliferation-associated antigen Ki-67 and cleaved caspase-3 in tumor-bearing nude mice were investigated. RESULTS Compared with the control group, 2, 4 μmol/L PP9 significantly decreased the number of clones and the clone formation rate of cells, but significantly increased the apoptosis rate, the protein expressions of Fas, FasL, cleaved caspase-8 and cleaved caspase-3 (P<0.05 or P<0.01). However, the combination of Fas inhibitor KR-33493 could significantly reverse the effect of PP9 on the up-regulation of proteins related to the Fas/FasL signaling pathway (P<0.01). Compared with the control group, the tumor volume (on day 27), mass and protein expression of Ki- 67 in nude mice of the PP9 group were significantly decreased, while the protein expression of cleaved caspase-3 was significantly increased (P<0.01). CONCLUSIONS PP9 can induce apoptosis of HepG2 cells by activating the Fas/FasL signaling pathway. Meanwhile, PP9 can also effectively inhibit the growth of transplanted tumors in nude mice.
8.Comparative study of SARIMA and seasonal index model in predicting non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning
Wantong HAN ; Yongqiang ZHANG ; Shichang DU ; Wei WANG ; Kai QU ; Xin HE ; Cixian XU ; Xiumei SUN ; Qiran SUN ; Jinyao ZHANG ; Fan BU ; Xingui SUN
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2025;36(6):12-16
Objective To establish a prediction model for the occurrence of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning events in Beijing, and to provide scientific basis and theoretical support for the prevention and warning of poisoning events. Methods Based on the monitoring data of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning events in Beijing from 2016 to 2024, the seasonal ARIMA model and seasonal index model were established to analyze the data and predict the occurrence of events. Results Between 2016 and 2024, a total of 436 cases of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning were reported in Beijing, showing a downward trend. The established SARIMA model and seasonal index model were SARIMA (1,0,0) (1,1,0) 12, Yt = (-0.0339t+5.8863) × St, and the average relative errors were 65.42% and 29.19%, respectively. In terms of months, the SARIMA model had better predictive performance during April and summer (June to August), while the seasonal index model was superior in other months. By combining the two models, the predicted number of events in 2025 was as follows: 3, 2, 2, 3, 1, 5, 2, 7, 1, 1, 1, and 2. Conclusion The seasonal index model has the best prediction effect on the non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning events in Beijing throughout the year, and the number of summer events predicted by SARIMA model is closer to the actual values. The two models can be combined to predict the trend of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning, which provides a scientific basis for the prevention and control of carbon monoxide poisoning in the future.
9.Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering analysis of varicella in Lu'an City in 2005 - 2023
Huan ZHANG ; Bingxin MA ; Yafei CHEN ; Yao WANG ; Fan PAN ; Lei ZHANG ; Kai CHENG ; Ling SHAO ; Wei QIN
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2025;36(6):58-61
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of varicella in Lu'an City from 2005 to 2023, and to provide a scientific basis for optimizing varicella prevention and control strategies. Methods Data on varicella cases were collected through the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Information System. Descriptive epidemiology, temporal trend analysis, seasonal analysis, spatiotemporal clustering analysis, and spatial autocorrelation analysis were conducted using QGIS, JoinPoint, SaTScan and GeoDa software. Results The average annual reported incidence rate of varicella in Lu'an City from 2005 to 2023 was 34.55/100,000, showing a trend of initial increase followed by a decrease. The peak incidence occurred from October to January of the following year (RR=1.97, LLR=1743.95, P=0.001). Students aged 0 to 19 was the primary affected group. Spatiotemporal scan analysis revealed four types of spatiotemporal clusters, with the cluster in Jin'an District from October 2017 to December 2023 being particularly prominent (RR=2.87,LLR=1734.15,P<0.001). Spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated significant clustering of varicella cases in the main urban area (Moran's I=0.216,Z=4.786,P=0.003). Conclusion The incidence of varicella in Lu'an City exhibits distinct seasonal and spatial clustering, and schools and kindergartens in the main urban area are the key to varicella prevention and control. It is necessary to enhance the monitoring of disease outbreaks during peak periods and in key areas, and to increase the two-dose vaccination rate for varicella in areas with case aggregation and among key populations.
10.Approach to premature thelarche in children.
Wen Hann CHOW ; Kai Xiang ZHANG ; Wei Keong Daniel CHAN
Singapore medical journal 2025;66(6):338-342


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