1.Comparison of the effects of three time series models in predicting the trend of erythrocyte blood demand
Yajuan QIU ; Jianping ZHANG ; Jia LUO ; Peilin LI ; Mengzhuo LUO ; Qiongying LI ; Ge LIU ; Qing LEI ; Kai LIAO
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion 2025;38(2):257-262
[Objective] To analyse and predict the tendencies of using erythrocyte blood in Changsha based on the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, long short-term memory (LSTM) and ARIMA-LSTM combination model, so as to provide reliable basis for designing a feasible and effective blood inventory management strategy. [Methods] The data of erythrocyte usage from hospitals in Changsha between January 2012 and December 2023 were collected, and ARIMA model, LSTM model and ARIMA-LSTM combination model were established. The actual erythrocyte consumption from January to May 2024 were used to assess and verify the prediction effect of the models. The extrapolation prediction accuracy of the models were tested using two evaluation indicators: mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE), and then the prediction performance of the model was compared. [Results] The RMSE of LSTM model, optimal model ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 and ARIMA-LSTM combination model were respectively 5 206.66, 3 096.43 and 2 745.75, and the MAPE were 18.78%,11.54% and 9.76% respectively, which indicated that the ARIMA-LSTM combination model was more accurate than the ARIMA model and LSTM model, and the prediction results was basically consistent with the actual situation. [Conclusion] The ARIMA-LSTM model can better predict the clinical erythrocyte consumption in Changsha in the short term.
2.Interpretation of 2024 ESC guidelines for the management of peripheral arterial and aortic diseases
Kai TANG ; Mingyao LUO ; Chang SHU
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2025;32(01):14-23
In recent years, the worldwide incidence rate of peripheral arterial and aortic diseases has increased year by year, significantly increasing the cardiovascular mortality and incidence rate of the whole population. In the past, peripheral arterial and aortic diseases were often more prone to missed diagnosis and delayed treatment compared to coronary artery disease. The 2024 ESC guidelines for the management of peripheral arterial and aortic diseases for the first time combines peripheral arterial and aortic diseases, integrating and updating the 2017 guidelines for peripheral arterial disease and the 2014 guidelines for aortic disease. The aim is to provide standardized recommendations for the management of systemic arterial diseases, ensuring that patients can receive coherent and comprehensive diagnosis and treatment, thereby improving prognosis. This article interprets the main content of the guideline in order to provide reference and assistance for the clinical diagnosis and treatment of peripheral arterial and aortic diseases in China at the current stage.
4.Clinical characteristics and survival analysis of pediatric Hodgkin lymphoma: a multicenter study.
Ying LIN ; Li-Li PAN ; Shao-Hua LE ; Jian LI ; Bi-Yun GUO ; Yu ZHU ; Kai-Zhi WENG ; Jin-Hong LUO ; Gao-Yuan SUN ; Yong-Zhi ZHENG
Chinese Journal of Contemporary Pediatrics 2025;27(6):668-674
OBJECTIVES:
To investigate the clinicopathological characteristics and prognostic factors of pediatric Hodgkin lymphoma (HL).
METHODS:
A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of children with newly diagnosed HL from January 2011 to December 2023 at four hospitals: Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fujian Medical University Zhangzhou Hospital, First Affiliated Hospital of Xiamen University, and Fujian Children's Hospital. Patients were categorized into low-risk (R1), intermediate-risk (R2), and high-risk (R3) groups based on HL staging and pre-treatment risk factors. The patients received ABVD regimen or Chinese Pediatric HL-2013 regimen chemotherapy. Early treatment response and long-term efficacy were assessed, and prognostic factors were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards regression model.
RESULTS:
The overall complete response (CR) rates after 2 and 4 cycles of chemotherapy were 42% and 68%, respectively. Compared with the ABVD regimen group, patients treated with the HL-2013 regimen in the R1 group showed significantly higher CR rates after both 2 and 4 cycles (P<0.05). However, no statistically significant differences in CR rates were observed between the two regimens in the R2 and R3 groups (P>0.05). The 5-year event-free survival (EFS) rate, overall survival rate, and freedom from treatment failure rate were 83%±4%, 97%±2%, and 88%±4%, respectively. Cox analysis indicated that the presence of a large tumor mass at diagnosis and failure to achieve CR after 4 cycles of chemotherapy were independent risk factors for lower EFS rates (P<0.05).
CONCLUSIONS
Pediatric HL generally has a favorable prognosis. The presence of a large tumor mass at diagnosis and failure to achieve CR after 4 cycles of chemotherapy indicate poor prognosis.
Humans
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Hodgkin Disease/pathology*
;
Male
;
Child
;
Female
;
Adolescent
;
Retrospective Studies
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Child, Preschool
;
Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols/therapeutic use*
;
Prognosis
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Proportional Hazards Models
;
Survival Analysis
;
Infant
5.Research Progress of Chinese Medicine Monomers in Treatment of Cholangiocarcinoma.
Xiang WANG ; Xiao-Qing WANG ; Kai LUO ; He BAI ; Jia-Lin QI ; Gui-Xin ZHANG
Chinese journal of integrative medicine 2025;31(2):170-182
Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a malignant tumor originating from cholangiocytes. However, it remains unclear about the pathogenesis of this carcinoma, which may be related to multiple factors. Currently, CCA is mainly treated by surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy. Among them, surgery is the only potentially curative option for CCA. Nevertheless, the high malignancy and asymptomatic nature of CCA may lead to poor treatment outcomes. It has been demonstrated that Chinese medicine (CM) plays a significant role in various antitumor applications. Meanwhile, CM exhibits fewer side effects and high availability. Moreover, the in vitro application of CM monomers has been explored in many domestic and foreign studies. This article mainly reviews the signaling pathways and molecular mechanisms of CM monomers in the treatment of CCA in recent years. These findings are expected to provide new insights into the treatment of CCA.
Cholangiocarcinoma/drug therapy*
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Humans
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/pharmacology*
;
Bile Duct Neoplasms/drug therapy*
;
Medicine, Chinese Traditional
;
Animals
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Signal Transduction/drug effects*
6.Clinical characteristics of elderly patients with sepsis and development and evaluation of death risk assessment scale.
Fubo DONG ; Liwen LUO ; Dejiang HONG ; Yi YAO ; Kai PENG ; Wenjin LI ; Guangju ZHAO
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2025;37(1):17-22
OBJECTIVE:
To analyze the clinical characteristics of elderly patients with sepsis, identify the key factors affecting their clinical outcomes, construct a death risk assessment scale for elderly patients with sepsis, and evaluate its predictive value.
METHODS:
A retrospective case-control study was conducted. The clinical data of sepsis patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) of the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University from September 2021 to September 2023 were collected, including basic information, clinical characteristics, and clinical outcomes. The patients were divided into non-elderly group (age ≥ 65 years old) and elderly group (age < 65 years old) based on age. Additionally, the elderly patients were divided into survival group and death group based on their 30-day survival status. The clinical characteristics of elderly patients with sepsis were analyzed. Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were used to screen the independent risk factors for 30-day death in elderly patients with sepsis, and the regression equation was constructed. The regression equation was simplified, and the death risk assessment scale was established. The predictive value of different scores for the prognosis of elderly patients with sepsis was compared.
RESULTS:
(1) A total of 833 patients with sepsis were finally enrolled, including 485 in the elderly group and 348 in the non-elderly group. Compared with the non-elderly group, the elderly group showed significantly lower counts of lymphocyte, T cell, CD8+ T cell, and the ratio of T cells and CD8+ T cells [lymphocyte count (×109/L): 0.71 (0.43, 1.06) vs. 0.83 (0.53, 1.26), T cell count (cells/μL): 394.0 (216.0, 648.0) vs. 490.5 (270.5, 793.0), CD8+ T cell count (cells/μL): 126.0 (62.0, 223.5) vs. 180.0 (101.0, 312.0), T cell ratio: 0.60 (0.48, 0.70) vs. 0.64 (0.51, 0.75), CD8+ T cell ratio: 0.19 (0.13, 0.28) vs. 0.24 (0.16, 0.34), all P < 0.01], higher natural killer cell (NK cell) count, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score, ratio of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) during hospitalization, and 30-day mortality [NK cell count (cells/μL): 112.0 (61.0, 187.5) vs. 95.0 (53.0, 151.0), APACHE II score: 16.00 (12.00, 21.00) vs. 13.00 (8.00, 17.00), IMV ratio: 40.6% (197/485) vs. 31.9% (111/348), 30-day mortality: 28.9% (140/485) vs. 19.5% (68/348), all P < 0.05], and longer length of ICU stay [days: 5.5 (3.0, 10.0) vs. 5.0 (3.0, 8.0), P < 0.05]. There were no statistically significant differences in the levels of inflammatory markers such as C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interferon-γ (IFN-γ), and interleukins (IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-10) between the two groups. (2) In 485 elderly patients with sepsis, 345 survived in 30 days, and 140 died with the 30-day mortality of 28.9%. Compared with the survival group, the patients in the death group were older, and had lower body mass index (BMI), white blood cell count (WBC), PCT, platelet count (PLT) and higher IL-6, IL-10, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), total bilirubin (TBil), blood lactic acid (Lac), and ratio of in-hospital IMV and continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis indicated that BMI [odds ratio (OR) = 0.783, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 0.678-0.905, P = 0.001], IL-6 (OR = 1.073, 95%CI was 1.004-1.146, P = 0.036), TBil (OR = 1.009, 95%CI was 1.000-1.018, P = 0.045), Lac (OR = 1.211, 95%CI was 1.072-1.367, P = 0.002), and IMV during hospitalization (OR = 6.181, 95%CI was 2.214-17.256, P = 0.001) were independent risk factors for 30-day death in elderly patients with sepsis, and the regression equation was constructed (Logit P = 1.012-0.244×BMI+0.070×IL-6+0.009×TBil+0.190×Lac+1.822×IMV). The regression equation was simplified to construct a death risk assessment scale, namely BITLI score. Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) analysis showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of BITLI score for predicting death risk was 0.852 (95%CI was 0.769-0.935), and it was higher than APACHE II score (AUC = 0.714, 95%CI was 0.623-0.805) and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score (AUC = 0.685, 95%CI was 0.578-0.793). The determined cut-off value of BITLI score was 1.50, while achieving a sensitivity of 83.3% and specificity of 74.0%.
CONCLUSIONS
Elderly patients with sepsis often have reduced lymphocyte counts, severe conditions, and poor prognosis. BMI, IL-6, TBil, Lac, and IMV during hospitalization were independent risk factors for 30-day death in elderly patients with sepsis. The BITLI score constructed based above risk factors is more precise and reliable than traditional APACHE II and SOFA scores in predicting the outcomes of elderly patients with sepsis.
Humans
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Sepsis/mortality*
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Aged
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Risk Assessment
;
Case-Control Studies
;
Prognosis
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Male
;
Female
;
Intensive Care Units
;
Risk Factors
;
Aged, 80 and over
;
Logistic Models
;
Middle Aged
7.Sandstorm-driven Particulate Matter Exposure and Elevated COPD Hospitalization Risk in Arid Regions of China: A Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Analysis.
Hao ZHAO ; Ce LIU ; Er Kai ZHOU ; Bao Feng ZHOU ; Sheng LI ; Li HE ; Zhao Ru YANG ; Jia Bei JIAN ; Huan CHEN ; Huan Huan WEI ; Rong Rong CAO ; Bin LUO
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2025;38(11):1404-1416
OBJECTIVE:
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major health concern in northwest China; however, the impact of particulate matter (PM) exposure during sand-dust storms (SDS) remains poorly understood. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the association between PM exposure on SDS days and COPD hospitalization risk in arid regions.
METHODS:
Data on daily COPD hospitalizations were collected from 323 hospitals from 2018 to 2022, along with the corresponding air pollutant and meteorological data for each city in Gansu Province. Employing a space-time-stratified case-crossover design and conditional Poisson regression, we analyzed 265,379 COPD hospitalizations.
RESULTS:
PM exposure during SDS days significantly increased COPD hospitalization risk [relative risk ( RR) for PM 2.5, lag 3:1.028, 95% confidence interval ( CI): 1.021-1.034], particularly among men and the elderly, and during the cold season. The burden of PM exposure on COPD hospitalization was substantially high in Northwest China, especially in the arid and semi-arid regions.
CONCLUSION
Our findings revealed a positive correlation between PM exposure during SDS episodes and elevated hospitalization rates for COPD in arid and semi-arid zones in China. This highlights the urgency of developing region-specific public health strategies to address adverse respiratory outcomes associated with SDS-related air quality deterioration.
Humans
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/chemically induced*
;
Particulate Matter/analysis*
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Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data*
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Male
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged
;
Air Pollutants/analysis*
;
Environmental Exposure/adverse effects*
;
Spatio-Temporal Analysis
;
Adult
;
Sand
;
Air Pollution
8.Causes and prevention strategies of postoperative nausea and vomiting after orthognathic surgery.
Kai LUO ; Le LIU ; Le ZHAO ; Yanglu TANG ; En LUO ; Yang JI
West China Journal of Stomatology 2025;43(3):305-313
Postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) are common complications that mainly occur within 24 h after orthognathic surgery. The incidence of nausea and vomiting after orthognathic surgery remains high and is a difficult problem for patients and surgeons. These complications not only affect wound healing and increase the risk of postoperative bleeding. Vomit and blood may also cause nausea and vomiting, which results in a vicious cycle. Frequent nausea and vomiting are a painful experience and more serious than postoperative pain. They are one of the main reasons for postoperative infection, delayed discharge, and increased hospitalization costs and affect patient satisfaction. In this review, the author combined literature review and clinical experience and summarized and analyzed the causes of orthognathic nausea and vomiting and prevention and treatment strategies to improving the related clinical process.
Humans
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Postoperative Nausea and Vomiting/etiology*
;
Orthognathic Surgical Procedures/adverse effects*
9.Clinical trial of parecoxib sodium combined with dexmedetomidine for surgery in patients with osteoporotic compression fractures
Kai LUO ; Qing WANG ; Gao-Ju WANG ; Jin YANG ; Guang-Zhou LI ; Shi-Jie SONG ; Shun-Gui CAI
The Chinese Journal of Clinical Pharmacology 2024;40(20):2963-2967
Objective To investigate the effects of parecoxib sodium injection combined with dexmedetomidine hydrochloride injection on postoperative cognitive function and stress response in patients with osteoporotic compression fractures.Methods The patients with osteoporotic compression fractures were divided into treatment group and control group according to the treatment plan.The control group was given intravenous injection of dexmedetomidine hydrochloride injection 0.2 μg·kg-1load dose,then micro pump injection 0.2 μg·kg-1·min-1 maintenance dose,until 30 min before the end of the operation;patients in the treatment group were intravenously injected with parecoxib sodium injection 20 mg before local anesthesia and 30 min before the end of operation on the basis of the control group.The pain,sedation,hemodynamics[mean arterial pressure(MAP),heart rate(HR)],cognitive function and safety evaluation were compared between the two groups before operation(T0),2 h after operation(T1),6 h after operation(T2),12 h after operation(T3)and 24 h after operation(T4).Results There were 39 cases in the treatment group and 41 cases in the control group.Visual analogue scale(VAS)scores in treatment group and control group were(3.09±0.55)and(3.41±0.62)scores at T1;VAS scores were(3.02±0.57)and(3.35±0.48)scores at T2;VAS scores were(2.64±0.44)and(2.90±0.46)scores at T3;VAS scores were(2.02±0.41)and(2.35±0.47)scores at T4;MMSE scores were(25.28±1.57)and(24.33±1.42)scores at T2;MMSE scores were(28.16±1.01)and(27.25±0.89)scores at T4;MoCA scores were(24.63±1.60)and(23.59±1.25)scores at T2;MoCA scores were(27.20±0.97)and(26.48±0.83)scores at T4.There were statistically significant differences in the above indexes between the treatment group and the control group(all P<0.05).Adverse drug reactions in the treatment group included bradycardia,hypotension,nausea vomiting and hypokalemia;adverse drug reactions in the control group included bradycardia,hypotension and nausea vomiting.The total incidence rates of adverse drug reactions were 12.82%and 9.76%,without statistically significant difference(P>0.05).Conclusion Compared with using dexmedetomidine alone,parecoxib sodium combined with dexmedetomidine is beneficial for relieving postoperative pain in patients with osteoporotic compression fractures,improving postoperative cognitive function.
10.Association of urinary cadmium level with body mass index and body circumferences among older adults over 65 years old in 9 longevity areas of China
Zheng ZHANG ; Bing WU ; Yingli QU ; Yang LI ; Lanjing XU ; Chunxian LYU ; Chen CHEN ; Jun WANG ; Kai XUE ; Yuan WEI ; Jinhui ZHOU ; Xulin ZHENG ; Yidan QIU ; Yufei LUO ; Junxin LIU ; Yuebin LYU ; Xiaoming SHI
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;58(2):227-234
Objective:To investigate the association of urinary cadmium level with body mass index (BMI) and body circumferences among the older adults over 65 years old in 9 longevity areas of China.Methods:Subjects were older adults over 65 years old from the Healthy Aging and Biomarkers Cohort Study (HABCS) between 2017 and 2018 conducted in 9 longevity areas in China. A total of 1 968 older adults were included in this study. Information including socio-demographic characteristics, lifestyles, diet intake, and health status was collected by using questionnaires and physical examinations. Urine samples were collected to detect urinary cadmium and creatinine levels. Body circumferences included waist circumference, hip circumference and calf circumference. Subjects were divided into three groups (low:<0.77 μg/g·creatinine, middle:0.77-1.69 μg/g·creatinine, high:≥1.69 μg/g·creatinine) by tertiles of creatinine-adjusted urinary cadmium concentration. Multiple linear regression models were used to analyze the association of creatinine-adjusted urinary cadmium level with BMI and body circumferences. The dose-response relationship of creatinine-adjusted urinary cadmium concentration with BMI and body circumferences was analyzed by using restrictive cubic splines fitting multiple linear regression model.Results:The mean age of subjects was (83.34±11.14) years old. The median (Q1, Q3) concentration of creatinine-adjusted urinary cadmium was 1.13 (0.63, 2.09) μg/g·creatinine, and the BMI was (22.70±3.82) kg/m 2. The mean values of waist circumference, hip circumference, and calf circumference were (85.42±10.68) cm, (92.67±8.90) cm, and (31.08±4.76) cm, respectively. After controlling confounding factors, the results of the multiple linear regression model showed that for each increment of 1 μg/g·creatinine in creatinine-adjusted urinary cadmium, the change of BMI, waist circumference, hip circumference, and calf circumference in the high-level group was -0.28 (-0.37, -0.19) kg/m 2, -0.74 (-0.96, -0.52) cm, -0.78 (-0.96, -0.61) cm, and -0.20 (-0.30, -0.11) cm, respectively. The restrictive cubic splines curve showed a negative nonlinear association of creatinine-adjusted urinary cadmium with BMI ( Pnonlinear<0.001) and negative linear associations of creatinine-adjusted urinary cadmium with waist circumference ( Plinear<0.001), hip circumference ( Plinear<0.001), and calf circumference ( Plinear<0.001). Conclusion:Urinary cadmium level is significantly associated with decreased BMI, waist circumference, hip circumference and calf circumference among older adults over 65 years old in 9 longevity areas of China.

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