1.Establishment and validation of a prediction model for mineral and bone disorder in maintenance hemodialysis patients
Yanling HUANG ; Jiping SHEN ; Kai CAO ; Ping XIE ; Jinyuan ZHAO ; Rulian LIANG
Chinese Journal of Clinical Medicine 2026;33(1):58-64
Objective To explore the risk factors for mineral and bone disorder in maintenance hemodialysis patients, and to construct and validate a nomogram prediction model. Methods A total of 306 patients undergoing maintenance hemodialysis at Shanghai Eighth People’s Hospital from January 2021 to May 2025 were selected as study subjects and randomly divided into a training set (n=214) and a validation set (n=92) in a 7∶3 ratio. In the training set, patients were divided into a normal bone mineral metabolism group and an abnormal bone mineral metabolism group, and related factors were compared between the two groups. The multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the influencing factors of mineral and bone disorder in maintenance hemodialysis patients in the training set, and a nomogram prediction model was constructed. ROC curves were drawn to evaluate the ability of the nomogram model for predicting mineral and bone disorder in these patients. Calibration curves and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to analyze the consistency of the predictive probability of nomogram model and actual probability of mineral and bone disorder in these patients. The decision curve was used to assess the clinical benefit using nomogram prediction model. Results Among the 306 hemodialysis patients, 254 patients had mineral and bone disorder, accounting for 83.01%. Among the 214 patients in the training set, 177 had mineral and bone disorder, accounting for 82.71%. In the training set, age, gender, body mass index (BMI), hypertension rate, dialysis age, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), hemoglobin (Hb), albumin (ALB), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), serum creatinine (SCr), uric acid (UA), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and rate of taking phosphate binders were statistically significant different between the two groups (P<0.05). The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed higher age, female, hypertension, longer dialysis duration, decreased eGFR, and not taking phosphate binders were identified as risk factors for mineral and bone disorder in maintenance hemodialysis patients (P<0.01). The nomogram prediction model was constructed. The area under the ROC curve of the model for mineral and bone disorder in the training set and validation set was 0.895 (95%CI 0.850-0.941) and 0.881 (95%CI 0.830-0.932), respectively, with maximum Youden indice of 0.650 and 0.600, sensitivity of 0.856 and 0.849, and specificity of 0.794 and 0.751. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed the nomogram prediction model had good consistency in predictive probabilities with actual probabilities in training set and validation set. The decision curve showed the nomogram model could bring clinical net benefits when the threshold probabilities in the training set and validation set were less than 0.96 and 0.91. Conclusions The nomogram prediction model constructed based on six independent risk factors including age, gender, hypertension, dialysis duration, eGFR, and using phosphate binders or not, shows good discrimination and calibration, with good clinical predictive ability, which could provide guidance for the management of maintenance hemodialysis patients.
2.Clinical efficacy of robot versus video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery for the treatment of mediastinal tumor: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Wei CAO ; Haochi LI ; Kai YANG ; Qi WANG ; Zhuang ZUO ; unjiu GOU
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2026;33(05):799-806
Objective To systematically evaluate the therapeutic effects of video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) and robot-assisted thoracic surgery (RATS) in treating mediastinal tumors. Methods A computer search was conducted on PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Wanfang, CNKI, CBM, VIP databases for literature comparing the clinical efficacy of VATS and RATS in treating mediastinal tumors, with the search time from inception to March 31, 2024. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to evaluate the quality of the included cohort studies, and Review Manager 5.4 software was used to perform a meta-analysis. Results A total of 32 articles were included, with 7868 patients. The NOS scores of the included cohort studies were all≥7 points. Meta-analysis results showed that compared with the VATS group, the RATS group had less intraoperative blood loss [MD=−16.71, 95%CI (−23.88, −9.54), P<0.001], lower conversion rate to open thoracotomy [OR=0.41, 95%CI (0.26, 0.67), P=0.003], lower overall postoperative complication rate [OR=0.66, 95%CI (0.48, 0.92), P=0.01], shorter postoperative drainage time [MD=−0.64, 95%CI (−0.92, −0.36), P<0.001], and shorter postoperative hospital stay [MD=−1.03, 95%CI (−1.28, −0.78), P<0.001]. There was no statistical difference between the two groups in terms of tumor size [MD=−0.06, 95%CI (−0.31, 0.19), P=0.64] or operation time [MD=5.52, 95%CI (−2.35, 13.40), P=0.17]. The RATS group had higher hospitalization costs than the VATS group [MD=1.69, 95%CI (1.26, 2.13), P<0.001]. Conclusion In mediastinal tumors resection, RATS is superior to VATS in terms of intraoperative blood loss, conversion rate to open thoracotomy, overall postoperative complication rate, postoperative drainage time, and postoperative hospital stay, but it increases hospitalization costs.
3.Disease burden and changing trends of bladder cancer in China and globally in 1992 - 2021
Zhengnan LI ; Zhuang LI ; Yuanyuan LUO ; Bo YU ; Hao SU ; GuangYong CAO ; Kai YIN ; Dongbo YUAN ; Jianguo ZHU
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2026;37(3):8-13
Objective To analyze the disease burden and trends of bladder cancer in China and globally from 1992 to 2021. Methods Using the GBD 2021 database, the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates of bladder cancer in China and globally from 1992–2021 were analyzed. Average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated using Joinpoint regression. Subgroup analyses by sex and age were conducted, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict trends in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for the next 15 years. Results In 2021, China reported 106 000 new cases (ASIR: 5.14/100 000), 571 000 prevalent cases (age-standardized prevalence rate, ASPR: 26.61/100 000), 43 000 deaths (ASMR: 2.34/100 000), and a DALY rate of 45.31/100 000. From 1992–2021, China showed upward trends in ASIR and ASPR but declines in ASMR and DALYs, while global ASIR, ASMR, and DALYs decreased overall with slow ASPR growth. The peak cases in China and globally were both concentrated in the 65-79 age group, with a significantly higher burden on males than females. In China, smoking-related ASMR and ASDR exceeded global averages and rose, whereas high glucose-related indexes were lower and declined. Projections for 2021–2036 indicated that the global incidence and mortality rates would be rising, but ASIR/ASPR would be declining, while in China, the incidence rate would continue to rise, and the mortality rate will stabilize, with a significant increase in ASIR and a gradual decrease in ASPR. Conclusion From 1992 to 2021, the incidence of bladder cancer in China has shown a continuous upward trend and is projected to persist in the future, with significant gender and age differences. Particular attention should be given to elderly males aged 85-89. The disease burden of bladder cancer attributable to smoking continues to rise, highlighting the urgent need to strengthen tobacco control policies.
4.Effect of Acupuncture at Neiguan (PC6) on Improving Autism by Promoting Myelination Through The METTL14/m⁶A/PTEN Axis Based on “Xuanfu-Suiqiao” Theory
Wei-Li DANG ; Lü-Yuan LIANG ; Yu-Xin LI ; Zhi-Yao LI ; Sai-Dan LIU ; Jia-Lei CAO ; Rong-Ze MA ; Yun-Kai WANG ; Xiao-Qing YANG ; Bing-Qi WEI ; Bing-Xiang MA
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(5):1165-1177
ObjectiveTo clarify whether METTL14 mediates the core role of acupuncture at Neiguan (PC6) in promoting myelination and improving behavior in young autistic rats through gene intervention technology. MethodsThe ASD model was established by intraperitoneal injection of valproic acid (VPA) in pregnant rats. Male offspring were intracerebroventricularly injected with adenovirus-packaged METTL14 shRNA (sh-METTL14) or its control (sh-NC) on postnatal day 1, with a model group set as well. Subsequently, the juvenile rats were divided into model group, acupuncture group, acupuncture+sh-NC group, and acupuncture+sh-METTL14 group. The acupuncture group received acupuncture at Neiguan (PC6) from postnatal day 7, once daily for 21 consecutive days. Neurobehavioral changes were evaluated by behavioral tests; METTL14 knockdown efficiency and the expression of METTL14, METTL3, and PTEN were detected by quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) and Western blot (WB); PTEN m6A levels were measured by RNA immunoprecipitation-qPCR (RIP-qPCR); myelin ultrastructure, expression of myelin basic protein (MBP) and neurofascin 155 (NF155), and dendritic spine density were observed using transmission electron microscopy (TEM), enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), immunofluorescence, qRT-PCR, and primary neuron culture. ResultsBehaviorally, knockdown of METTL14 significantly counteracted the beneficial effects of acupuncture in improving self-grooming, open field exploration, three-chamber social interaction, and Morris water maze learning and memory (P<0.05, P<0.01). Compared with the acupuncture+sh-NC group, the acupuncture+sh-METTL14 group showed significantly decreased mRNA and protein expression of hippocampal METTL14 (P<0.01), and the upregulating effects of acupuncture on METTL3 and PTEN expression were reversed (P<0.01). Meanwhile, knockdown of METTL14 significantly inhibited the acupuncture-induced increase in PTEN m6A levels (P<0.01). Morphologically, knockdown of METTL14 attenuated the improvement of myelin structure by acupuncture, reversed the downregulation of MBP and upregulation of NF155 induced by acupuncture, and blocked the increase in dendritic spine density (P<0.05, P<0.01). ConclusionMETTL14 is a key molecule mediating the therapeutic effect of acupuncture at Neiguan. Acupuncture at Neiguan upregulates METTL14, thereby enhancing m6A methylation modification of PTEN mRNA to stabilize its expression, ultimately promoting myelin development and improving behavioral symptoms in ASD juvenile rats. This preliminarily reveals the modern biological connotation of “opening Xuanfu and dredging myelin”.
5.Effect of Acupuncture at Neiguan (PC6) on Improving Autism by Promoting Myelination Through The METTL14/m⁶A/PTEN Axis Based on “Xuanfu-Suiqiao” Theory
Wei-Li DANG ; Lü-Yuan LIANG ; Yu-Xin LI ; Zhi-Yao LI ; Sai-Dan LIU ; Jia-Lei CAO ; Rong-Ze MA ; Yun-Kai WANG ; Xiao-Qing YANG ; Bing-Qi WEI ; Bing-Xiang MA
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(5):1165-1177
ObjectiveTo clarify whether METTL14 mediates the core role of acupuncture at Neiguan (PC6) in promoting myelination and improving behavior in young autistic rats through gene intervention technology. MethodsThe ASD model was established by intraperitoneal injection of valproic acid (VPA) in pregnant rats. Male offspring were intracerebroventricularly injected with adenovirus-packaged METTL14 shRNA (sh-METTL14) or its control (sh-NC) on postnatal day 1, with a model group set as well. Subsequently, the juvenile rats were divided into model group, acupuncture group, acupuncture+sh-NC group, and acupuncture+sh-METTL14 group. The acupuncture group received acupuncture at Neiguan (PC6) from postnatal day 7, once daily for 21 consecutive days. Neurobehavioral changes were evaluated by behavioral tests; METTL14 knockdown efficiency and the expression of METTL14, METTL3, and PTEN were detected by quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) and Western blot (WB); PTEN m6A levels were measured by RNA immunoprecipitation-qPCR (RIP-qPCR); myelin ultrastructure, expression of myelin basic protein (MBP) and neurofascin 155 (NF155), and dendritic spine density were observed using transmission electron microscopy (TEM), enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), immunofluorescence, qRT-PCR, and primary neuron culture. ResultsBehaviorally, knockdown of METTL14 significantly counteracted the beneficial effects of acupuncture in improving self-grooming, open field exploration, three-chamber social interaction, and Morris water maze learning and memory (P<0.05, P<0.01). Compared with the acupuncture+sh-NC group, the acupuncture+sh-METTL14 group showed significantly decreased mRNA and protein expression of hippocampal METTL14 (P<0.01), and the upregulating effects of acupuncture on METTL3 and PTEN expression were reversed (P<0.01). Meanwhile, knockdown of METTL14 significantly inhibited the acupuncture-induced increase in PTEN m6A levels (P<0.01). Morphologically, knockdown of METTL14 attenuated the improvement of myelin structure by acupuncture, reversed the downregulation of MBP and upregulation of NF155 induced by acupuncture, and blocked the increase in dendritic spine density (P<0.05, P<0.01). ConclusionMETTL14 is a key molecule mediating the therapeutic effect of acupuncture at Neiguan. Acupuncture at Neiguan upregulates METTL14, thereby enhancing m6A methylation modification of PTEN mRNA to stabilize its expression, ultimately promoting myelin development and improving behavioral symptoms in ASD juvenile rats. This preliminarily reveals the modern biological connotation of “opening Xuanfu and dredging myelin”.
6.Pre-operative risk assessment of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence in liver transplant recipients by non-invasive detection of pre-existing genetic lesions
Suqin YANG ; Sunbin LING ; Jianhua LI ; Yan WANG ; Jiapei WANG ; Qiwei HUANG ; Fanming LIU ; Yiqi ZHUANG ; Yingyu ZHENG ; Rui WANG ; Zhe YANG ; Xiaoping ZHENG ; Kai WANG ; Zhikun LIU ; Jun CHEN ; Jianguo WANG ; Haiyang XIE ; Lin ZHOU ; Leiming CHEN ; Guoqiang CAO ; Dandan CHEN ; Junfang JI ; Bin ZHAO ; Chao JIANG ; Di LU ; Xuyong WEI ; Hangjin JIANG ; Qiaonan SHAN ; Hengbo SHI ; Yong-Zhen XU ; Shusen ZHENG ; Zhengxin WANG ; Shengda LIN ; Xiao XU
Clinical and Molecular Hepatology 2026;32(2):884-903
Background/Aims:
Liver transplantation (LT) following total hepatectomy is a life-saving treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The HCC recurrence after LT hinders the effectiveness of the procedure. The objective of this study is to develop a pre-operative risk stratification model based on a liquid biopsy.
Methods:
We conducted a comprehensive multi-omics study of 260 HCC patients from three centers, including clinical data, low-coverage whole-genome sequencing of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) from plasma, as well as whole-exome, single-nucleus RNA, and spatial transcriptomics from matched tumor and non-tumor tissues.
Results:
We identified cfDNA-derived copy number alteration (CNA) signatures associated with post-transplant recurrence. By integrating cfDNA-derived CNA profiles with single-cell transcriptomic data, we traced recurrence-associated cfDNA to a distinct subpopulation of malignant cells within the primary tumor. These cells were embedded in a pro-metastatic microenvironment of specialized endothelial subtypes and cancer-associated fibroblasts. Notably, most recurrence-associated lesions were detectable in cfDNA prior to liver transplantation (LT). Building on these insights, we developed the ZJU Criteria based on CNA fragments and tumor markers, a pre-LT risk prediction tool that integrates conventional clinical factors with cfDNA-derived CNA signatures, and validated it using internal and independent external cohorts.
Conclusion
Our findings suggest that post-transplant recurrence commonly originates from advanced subclones that emerge late during tumor evolution. The ZJU Criteria provides an accurate, non-invasive strategy that significantly improves pre-LT risk stratification and clinical decision-making for patients with HCC.
7.Determination of prototype components and metabolites of Si-Ni-San in healthy and ulcerative colitis mice by an integrated targeted and pseudo-targeted UPLC-QqQ-MS method
Yanfang CAO ; Yuan ZHENG ; Yongshun CHEN ; Sihan LI ; Kai FENG ; Xingjia LI ; Rui SONG
Journal of China Pharmaceutical University 2026;57(3):351-359
This study aimed to establish an analytical method capable of simultaneously quantifying the prototype components of Si-Ni-San and screening their metabolites to elucidate its tissue distribution and metabolic characteristics in an ulcerative colitis (UC) mouse model. To this end, an integrated analysis strategy based on UPLC-QqQ-MS was developed and validated, combining the targeted quantification of 12 prototype components with a pseudo-targeted metabolite screening technique based on ion pair list-triggered data-dependent acquisition. Samples were extracted with 80% methanol (100 mg/mL) and processed with internal standards. Separation was achieved on a Waters Acquity UPLC HSS PFP column using a gradient elution with a mobile phase consisting of acetonitrile and 5 mmol/L ammonium acetate containing 0.1% formic acid. Analysis was performed using an electrospray ionization (ESI) source in multiple reaction monitoring mode. Methodological validation confirmed that all parameters met the requirements for bio-sample analysis. Application of this method revealed that the content of Si-Ni-San prototype components in the colon, liver, and kidneys of UC mice was significantly higher than that in healthy mice. Furthermore, the number of phase II metabolites was markedly greater than that of phase I metabolites in all tested samples. The results demonstrate the reliability of the established method and preliminarily reveal the tissue distribution characteristics of Si-Ni-San under UC conditions and its metabolism pattern dominated by phase II conjugation, which provides a methodological basis and experimental data for further in-depth research into its effective target tissues and pharmacodynamic material basis.
8.Analysis of Dynamic Change Patterns of Color and Composition During Fermentation of Myristicae Semen Koji
Zhenxing WANG ; Mengmeng FAN ; Le NIU ; Suqin CAO ; Hongwei LI ; Zhenling ZHANG ; Hanwei LI ; Jianguang ZHU ; Kai LI
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(6):222-229
ObjectiveTo explore the changes in volatile components, total polysaccharides, enzyme activity, and chromaticity value of Myristicae Semen Koji(MSK) during the fermentation process, and conduct correlation analysis. MethodsBased on gas chromatography-mass spectrometry(GC-MS), the changes of volatile components in MSK at different fermentation times were identified. The phenol sulfuric acid method, dinitrosalicylic acid method(DNS), and carboxymethyl cellulose sodium salt method(CMC-Na) were used to investigate the total polysaccharide content, amylase activity, and cellulase activity during the fermentation process. Visual analysis technology was used to explore the changes in chromaticity values, revealing the fermentation process of MSK and the dynamic changes of various measurement indicators, partial least squares-discriminant analysis(PLS-DA) was used to explore the differential compounds of MSK at different fermentation degrees, and Pearson correlation analysis was used to explore the correlation between volatile components of MSK and total polysaccharides, enzyme activity, and chromaticity values. ResultsA total of 60 volatile compounds were identified from MSK, the relative contents of components such as (+)-α-pinene, β-phellandrene, β-pinene, (+)-limonene, and p-cymene obviously increased, while the relative contents of components such as safrole, methyl isoeugenol, methyleugenol, myristicin, and elemicin significantly decreased. During the fermentation process, the total polysaccharide content showed an upward trend, while the activities of amylase and cellulase showed an initial increase followed by a decrease, and reached their maximum value at 40 h. the overall brightness(L*) and total color difference(ΔE*) gradually increased, while the changes in red-green value(a*) and yellow-blue value(b*) were not obvious. PLS-DA results showed that MSK could be clearly distinguished at different fermentation times, and 13 differential biomarkers were screened out. Pearson correlation analysis results showed that the contents of α-terpinene, β-phellandrene, methyleugenol, β-cubebene and myristic acid had an obvious correlation with chromaticity values. ConclusionAfter fermentation, the volatile components, total polysaccharides, amylase activity, and cellulase activity of MSK undergo significant changes, and there is a clear correlation between them and chromaticity values, which reveals the dynamic changes in the fermentation process and related indicators of MSK, laying a foundation for the quality control.
9.Saltwater stir-fried Plantaginis Semen alleviates renal fibrosis by regulating epithelial-mesenchymal transition in renal tubular cells.
Xin-Lei SHEN ; Qing-Ru ZHU ; Wen-Kai YU ; Li ZHOU ; Qi-Yuan SHAN ; Yi-Hang ZHANG ; Yi-Ni BAO ; Gang CAO
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(5):1195-1208
This study aimed to investigate the effect of saltwater stir-fried Plantaginis Semen(SPS) on renal fibrosis in rats and decipher the underlying mechanism. Thirty-six Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly assigned into control, model, losartan potassium, and low-, medium-, and high-dose(15, 30, and 60 g·kg~(-1), respectively) SPS groups. Rats in other groups except the control group were subjected to unilateral ureteral obstruction(UUO) to induce renal fibrosis, and the modeling and gavage lasted for 14 days. After 14 consecutive days of treatment, the levels of serum creatinine(Scr) and blood urea nitrogen(BUN) in rats of each group were determined by an automatic biochemical analyzer. Hematoxylin-eosin(HE) and Masson staining were used to evaluate pathological changes in the renal tissue. Western blot and immunofluorescence assay were conducted to determine the protein levels of fibronectin(FN), collagen Ⅰ, vimentin, and α-smooth muscle actin(α-SMA) in the renal tissue. The mRNA levels of epithelial-mesenchymal transition(EMT)-associated transcription factors including twist family bHLH transcription factor 1(TWIST1), snail family transcriptional repressor 1(SNAI1), and zinc finger E-box binding homeobox 1(ZEB1), as well as inflammatory cytokines such as interleukin-1β(IL-1β), interleukin-6(IL-6), and tumor necrosis factor-α(TNF-α), were determined by RT-qPCR. Human renal proximal tubular epithelial(HK2) cells exposed to transforming growth factor-β(TGF-β) for the modeling of renal fibrosis were used to investigate the inhibitory effect of SPS on EMT. Network pharmacology and Western blot were employed to explore the molecular mechanism of SPS in alleviating renal fibrosis. The results showed that SPS significantly reduced Scr and BUN levels and alleviated renal injury and collagen deposition in UUO rats. Moreover, SPS notably down-regulated the protein levels of FN, collagen Ⅰ, vimentin, and α-SMA as well as the mRNA levels of SNAI1, ZEB1, TWIST1, IL-1β, IL-6, and TNF-α in the kidneys of UUO rats and TGF-β-treated HK-2 cells. In addition, compared with Plantaginis Semen without stir-frying with saltwater, SPS showed increased content of specific compounds, which were mainly enriched in the mitogen-activated protein kinase(MAPK) signaling pathway. SPS significantly inhibited the phosphorylation of extracellular signal-regulated kinase(ERK) and p38 MAPK in the kidneys of UUO rats and TGF-β-treated HK2 cells. In conclusion, SPS can alleviate renal fibrosis by attenuating EMT through inhibition of the MAPK signaling pathway.
Animals
;
Epithelial-Mesenchymal Transition/drug effects*
;
Rats, Sprague-Dawley
;
Male
;
Rats
;
Fibrosis/genetics*
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
;
Kidney Diseases/pathology*
;
Kidney Tubules/pathology*
;
Humans
10.Construction of a postoperative mortality risk model for patients with acute aortic dissection based on XGBoost-SHAP method
Xin ZHANG ; Min FANG ; Yi CAO ; Ting-Ting LI ; Xian-Kong LIU ; Jia-Yi DANG ; Xue-Sen ZHAO ; Hong-Qin REN ; Jia-Ze GENG ; Kai-Wen WANG ; Tie-Sheng HAN ; Yong-Bo ZHAO ; Dong MA
Medical Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army 2025;50(10):1226-1234
Objective To develop a predictive model for postoperative mortality risk in patients with acute aortic dissection(AAD)using the Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost)algorithm combined with Shapley Additive Explanation(SHAP),and to establish a prediction website to serve as a diagnostic and therapeutic support platform for clinicians and patients.Methods A retrospective cohort study design was adopted.Data from 782 AAD patients who underwent surgical treatment at the Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 2013 to December 2023 were collected,including basic information and initial serum biomarker test results.Patients were randomly divided into training and test sets at a 7:3 ratio.An external validation set consisting of 313 AAD patients admitted to the Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 2020 to December 2023 was also established for further model validation.Variables were screened using LASSO regression,and an XGBoost machine learning model was constructed and interpreted using SHAP.The predictive performance of the model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis.Using the Shiny package,the XGBoost model was deployed to shinyapps.io to create a prediction website for postoperative mortality risk in AAD patients.One patient was selected by simple random sampling from the test set and the external validation set respectively for the prediction example on the Shiny webpage.Results The XGBoost model demonstrated high predictive performance for postoperative mortality in AAD patients,with area under the ROC curve(AUC)values of 0.928(95%CI 0.901-0.956)in the training set,0.919(95%CI 0.891-0.949)in the test set,and 0.941(95%CI 0.915-0.967)in the external validation set.SHAP values indicated the following order of variable importance in the model(from highest to lowest):"lactate dehydrogenase""blood chlorine""multiple organ injury""carbon dioxide combining power""prothrombin time""α-hydroxybutyric acid""creatine kinase isoenzyme""Stanford classification""combined use of bedside blood purification""gender""acute kidney injury""gastrointestinal bleeding""brain injury"and"shock".A risk prediction website for adverse postoperative outcomes in AAD patients was developed using XGBoost-SHAP method(https://dun-dunxiaolu.shinyapps.io/document/)and validated with examples.One randomly selected patient from each of the test and external validation sets was applied:the predicted mortality risk value for patient 1(who died postoperatively)was 0.9539,and that for patient 2(who survived postoperatively)was 0.0206.Conclusions The XGBoost-SHAP model demonstrates high accuracy in predicting postoperative mortality risk for AAD patients.The online prediction tool established based on this model enhances the identification efficiency of high-risk postoperative mortality patients.


Result Analysis
Print
Save
E-mail