Objective: To analyze the incidence trend of colorectal cancer in Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou City from 2010 to 2024, and predict the incidence of colorectal cancer from 2025 to 2027, so as to provide the evidence for improving the prevention and control strategies of colorectal cancer. Methods: Colorectal cancer incidence data from 2010 to 2024 in Xiaoshan District were collected through the Hangzhou Municipal Chronic Disease Monitoring Management System. The crude incidence of colorectal cancer was calculated, and standardized using the data from the Sixth National Population Census in 2010 (Chinese standardized rate) and the Segi's world standard population (world standardized rate). The trend of colorectal cancer incidence from 2010 to 2024 was analyzed using the average annual percent change (AAPC). An exponential smoothing state space model with trigonometric seasonality, box-cox transformation, ARMA errors, trend and seasonal components (TBATS) was established to forecast the crude incidence of colorectal cancer from 2025 to 2027. Results: There were 10 726 new cases of colorectal cancer in Xiaoshan District from 2010 to 2024. The crude incidence, Chinese standardized rate, and world standardized rate of colorectal cancer were 59.25/100 000, 38.62/100 000 and 29.50/100 000, respectively. The crude incidence, Chinese standardized rate, and world standardized rate of colorectal cancer in males were 70.56/100 000, 44.44/100 000and 35.58/100 000, respectively, while those in females were 48.37/100 000, 32.69/100 000 and 23.70/100 000, respectively. The Chinese standardized rate of colorectal cancer was significantly higher in males than in females (P<0.05). The crude incidence of colorectal cancer in males, females and the whole population showed upward trends from 2010 to 2024 (AAPC=4.916%, 3.795% and 4.442%, all P<0.05). The crude incidence of colorectal cancer in the groups of 0-<35, 35-<50, 50-<75 and ≥75 years were 1.75/100 000, 19.86/100 000, 112.28/100 000 and 272.99/100 000, respectively, showing an increasing trend with age (P<0.05). From 2010 to 2024, the crude incidence of colorectal cancer in the ≥75 years group showed an increasing trend (AAPC=4.470%, P<0.05), while no significant trend was observed in other age groups (all P>0.05). TBATS model demonstrated good fitting (predictive) performance, indicating a year-by-year increase in the crude incidence of colorectal cancer across the whole population from 2025 to 2027, with an estimated rate reaching 70.45/100 000 in 2027. Conclusions The crude incidence of colorectal cancer in Xiaoshan District showed an increasing trend from 2010 to 2024, and it is predicted to continue to increase from 2025 to 2027. Males and the elderly are the key populations for colorectal cancer prevention and control.

ObjectiveTo analyze the trend of incidence, mortality rate and survival rate of breast cancer among women with registered residence in Xiaoshan District of Hangzhou City in Zhejiang Province from 2014 to 2023, and to provide a basis for improving breast cancer prevention and control strategies. MethodsData on the incidence and mortality of breast cancer among women with registered residence in Xiaoshan District from 2014 to 2023 were collected through Zhejiang Chronic Disease Monitoring and Management System. The crude incidence and mortality rate, as well as the age-standardized incidence and mortality rate using both the 2000 Chinese standard population (abbreviated as “Chinese ASR”) and Segi’s 1960 world standard population (“world ASR”) were calculated. Joinpoint model was employed to analyze the trends in incidence and mortality rate, while R software (version 4.1.1) was used to analyze the 5-year relative survival rate to assess the survival status of breast cancer patients. ResultsFrom 2014 to 2023, the crude incidence rate, the Chinese age-standardized incidence rate (ASIRC) and the world age-standardized incidence rate (ASIRW) of breast cancer among women with registered residence in Xiaoshan District were from 70.00/100 000 to 128.35/100 000, from 52.92/100 000 to 94.29/100 000, and from 40.82/100 000 to 72.07/100 000, respectively, with the corresponding average annual percentage changes (AAPC) of 5.80%, 4.63% and 4.71%, respectively, showing a significant increasing trend over the decade (all P<0.05). The incidence rate of breast cancer among people aged 30‒<40 years old or 50‒<75 years old exhibited a significant increase trend from 2014 to 2023 (all P<0.05). The crude mortality rate of breast cancer in female was from 7.75/100 000 to 12.34/100 000, the ASMRC of breast cancer in female was from 4.62/100 000 to 7.53/100 000, and the ASMRW of breast cancer in female was from 3.58/100 000 to 5.71/100 000, and the AAPC had no statistically significance. However, the mortality rate of breast cancer was increased with age (P<0.001). The 5-year age-standardized relative survival rate of breast cancer in female in Xiaoshan District was significantly higher in the 2016‒2018 period (94.46%) compared to the 2013‒2015 period (91.02%) (P<0.05). ConclusionFrom 2014 to 2023, the annual incidence of breast cancer among women with registered residence in Xiaoshan District of Hangzhou City in Zhejiang Province showed an increasing trend, while the change in mortality rate was not statistically significant. The 5-year survival rate of breast cancer in female was at a high level, indicating notable achievements in comprehensive prevention and control efforts. It is essential to continue to strengthen public awareness campaigns for breast cancer prevention and control, control breast cancer risk factors, actively carry out early diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer among target groups, and improve the quality of life for breast cancer patients.

ObjectiveTo analyze the incidence rate and mortality of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and their changing trends among the registered residents in Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou City from 2017 to 2023, so as to provide references for formulating policies related to AMI prevention. MethodsThe morbidity and mortality data of AMI among the registered residents in Xiaoshan District from 2017 to 2023 were collected through the Hangzhou Chronic Disease and Death Cause Monitoring System. Software such as Excel 2019, SPSS 25.0 and Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 were used to calculate the incidence rate, mortality, and average annual percentage change (AAPC) of AMI. ResultsFrom 2017 to 2023, the average annual crude incidence rate, age-standardized incidence rate using China standard population (ASIRC), and the age-standardized incidence rate using World standard population (ASIRW) of AMI in Xiaoshan District were 48.25/100 000, 29.14/100 000, and 21.64/100 000, respectively, and, from which the AAPCs were 5.495%, 6.010%, and 6.533%, respectively, all showing an upward trend. The average annual crude mortality rate, the age-standardized mortality rate using China standard population (ASMRC), and the age-standardized mortality rate using World standard population (ASMRW) were 11.76/100 000, 6.52/100 000, and 4.71/100 000, respectively, from which the AAPCs were -9.669%, -10.433% and -9.615%, respectively, all showing a downward trend. The average annual crude incidence rate of AMI was higher in males (65.87/100 000) than that in females (31.31/100 000). Moreover, the average annual crude mortality rate of AMI was higher in males (14.08/100 000) than that in females (9.52/100 000), and the difference was statistically significant (all P<0.001) .After age grouping, the crude incidence rate of AMI among the residents aged 35-, 45-, 55-, and 65- years in Xiaoshan District from 2017 to 2023 showed an upward trend over time, with AAPCs of 16.993%, 17.149%, 8.523%, and 5.002%, respectively. While the crude mortality rate in residents aged 35-, 75-, and 85-102 years showed an decreasing trend over time, with AAPCs of -23.977%, -15.467%, and -17.415%, respectively, but there was no statistically significant difference in the trends in incidence rate and mortality of other age groups (all P>0.05). ConclusionThe situation of AMI prevention and control among the registered residents in Xiaoshan District is not optimistic, and targeted measures should be strengthened for the male residents aged ≥35 years old.

Objective To elucidate the independent risk factors for AF in elderly patients with HF,develop a nomogram prediction model,and assess its predictive value for AF in elderly HF pa-tients.Methods A retrospective study was conducted on 299 patients of first HF hospitalization in Hengshui People's Hospital from June 2019 to December 2023,and based on the presence or absence of AF,they were divided into an AF group(133 cases)and a non-AF group(166 cases).The patients admitted from June 2019 to December 2022 were assigned into a modeling cohort(206 cases),while those from January 2023 to December 2023 into a validation cohort(93 cases).The general data were collected.Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed on the modeling cohort to identify the independent predictors of AF in elderly HF patients,and a nomo-gram prediction model was constructed.ROC curve,calibration curve and clinical decision curve analyses were applied to evaluate the discrimination,calibration and clinical practicability of the prediction model.Results Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the etiology of HF(CHD vs HP,OR=0.610,95％CI:0.301-1.250,P=0.178;CMD vs HP,OR=0.213,95％CI:0.052-0.883,P=0.033),LAD(OR=1.081,95％CI:1.020-1.152,P=0.015),HF classifi-cation(HFmrEF vs HFrEF,OR=5.897,95％CI:2.448-14.201,P=0.000;HFpEF vs HFrEF,OR=7.211,95％CI:2.522-20.640,P=0.001),pre-albumin(PALB)(OR=0.438,95％CI:0.217-0.901,P=0.030),UAC(OR=2.186,95％CI:1.075-4.430,P=0.025),and direct biliru-bin(DBi)(OR=4.531,95％CI:2.052-9.990,P=0.000)were independent risk factors for AF in the elderly HF patients.ROC curve analysis showed the AUC value of the prediction model based on these factors in the modeling cohort was 0.831,and the AUC value in the validation cohort was 0.840.Decision curve analysis indicated that the model possessed clinical practicability within a probability threshold range of 10％-82％for the modeling cohort and 12％-100％for the vali-dation cohort.Conclusion Our nomogram prediction model based on multivariate logistic regres-sion analysis exhibits good predictive value for the occurrence of AF in elderly HF patients,and can facilitate clinical decision-making on diagnosis and treatment.

Objective To evaluate and summarize the best evidence for the management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)receiving hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy(HAIC),so as to provide evidence-based basis for guiding clinical nursing practice.Methods According to the"6S"evidence model,a computerized retrieval of domestic and foreign academic papers concerning the management of HCC patients receiving HAIC,including guidelines,clinical decisions,systematic evaluation,evidence summaries,expert consensus and relevant high-quality original studies,from the databases was conducted.The retrieval time period was from the establishment of the database to January 2025.Two researchers independently assessed the quality of literature and extracted evidence.Results A total of 13 articles,including one guideline,one evidence summary,4 expert consensus documents,4 randomized controlled trials(RCT),2 cross-sectional surveys,and one case report,were included in this study.A total of 4 pieces of best evidence,involving 24 aspects,were summarized.Conclusion This summary of the best evidence provides evidence-based support for the management of HCC patients receiving HAIC.It is recommended that the formulation of most appropriate management plan should be based on each patient's own condition and the environment of medical resources while transforming and applying the evidence in clinical practice.

Objective To elucidate the independent risk factors for AF in elderly patients with HF,develop a nomogram prediction model,and assess its predictive value for AF in elderly HF pa-tients.Methods A retrospective study was conducted on 299 patients of first HF hospitalization in Hengshui People's Hospital from June 2019 to December 2023,and based on the presence or absence of AF,they were divided into an AF group(133 cases)and a non-AF group(166 cases).The patients admitted from June 2019 to December 2022 were assigned into a modeling cohort(206 cases),while those from January 2023 to December 2023 into a validation cohort(93 cases).The general data were collected.Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed on the modeling cohort to identify the independent predictors of AF in elderly HF patients,and a nomo-gram prediction model was constructed.ROC curve,calibration curve and clinical decision curve analyses were applied to evaluate the discrimination,calibration and clinical practicability of the prediction model.Results Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the etiology of HF(CHD vs HP,OR=0.610,95％CI:0.301-1.250,P=0.178;CMD vs HP,OR=0.213,95％CI:0.052-0.883,P=0.033),LAD(OR=1.081,95％CI:1.020-1.152,P=0.015),HF classifi-cation(HFmrEF vs HFrEF,OR=5.897,95％CI:2.448-14.201,P=0.000;HFpEF vs HFrEF,OR=7.211,95％CI:2.522-20.640,P=0.001),pre-albumin(PALB)(OR=0.438,95％CI:0.217-0.901,P=0.030),UAC(OR=2.186,95％CI:1.075-4.430,P=0.025),and direct biliru-bin(DBi)(OR=4.531,95％CI:2.052-9.990,P=0.000)were independent risk factors for AF in the elderly HF patients.ROC curve analysis showed the AUC value of the prediction model based on these factors in the modeling cohort was 0.831,and the AUC value in the validation cohort was 0.840.Decision curve analysis indicated that the model possessed clinical practicability within a probability threshold range of 10％-82％for the modeling cohort and 12％-100％for the vali-dation cohort.Conclusion Our nomogram prediction model based on multivariate logistic regres-sion analysis exhibits good predictive value for the occurrence of AF in elderly HF patients,and can facilitate clinical decision-making on diagnosis and treatment.

Objective To compare the effectiveness of Defocus Incorporated Multiple Segments (DIMS) and High Aspheric Lenslet (HAL) defocus lenses in controlling myopia. Methods A total of 214 children and adolescents who were fitted with defocus lenses (DIMS or HAL) in our hospital from January to June 2023 were selected, including 100 cases in DIMS group and 114 cases in the HAL group. Changes in parameters such as spherical lens power, cylindrical lens power, spherical equivalent (SE), corneal curvature (K), axial length (AL), binocular accommodative response (BCC), positive/negative relative accommodation (PRA/NRA), distance/near latent phoria (DLP/NLP), and accommodative convergence to accommodation ratio (AC/A) were compared between the two groups before wearing and after wearing the lenses for 6 months, and the effectiveness of myopia control between DIMS and HAL was further compared. Results After wearing the lenses (DIMS or HAL) for 6 months, the average increase in axial length was (0.09±0.14) mm, the average increase in spherical lens power was (-0.11±0.23) D, the average increase in astigmatism was (-0.07±0.16) DC, and the average increase in spherical equivalent was (-0.15±0.24) D, with statistically significant differences observed for all these changes (t=9.24, -7.27, -6.60, -9.03, respectively, P < 0.001). Compared with parameters before wearing the lenses, statistically significant differences were noted after wearing for 6 months in spherical lens power, cylindrical lens power, SE, BCC, PRA, DLP, average K, and AL (P≤0.001), except for NRA (t=-0.12, P>0.05), NLP (t=-0.28, P>0.05), and AC/A (t=0.33, P>0.05). The differences in parameters between the two groups after wearing the lenses for 6 months showed a statistically significant difference only in the AL difference (t=4.38, P≤0.001), with no statistically significant differences observed for other parameter differences (P>0.05). Conclusion Wearing defocus lenses has a positive effect on controlling myopia, delaying axial length elongation, and maintaining binocular visual function balance.

Objective: To investigate the trend in mortality of malignant tumors in Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou City from 2017 to 2022, so as to provide insights into formulation of the malignant tumor control strategy. Methods: Data on mortality of malignant tumors in Xiaoshan District from 2017 to 2022 were collected through Hangzhou Municipal Chronic Disease Monitoring Management System, and the cause of death composition ratio and crude mortality were calculated. The mortality of malignant tumors was standardized by the population of the sixth National Population Census in China in 2010. The trend in mortality of malignant tumors were evaluated with average annual percent change (AAPC). Results: There were 13 301 malignant tumor deaths reported in Xiaoshan District from 2017 to 2022, accounting for 31.26% of the total cause of death and ranking the first among the causes of death. The crude mortality was 186.36/105 and standardized mortality was 106.63/105. There was no significant trend in the crude mortality of malignant tumors in Xiaoshan District from 2017 to 2022 (P>0.05), while the standardized mortality showed a tendency towards a decline (AAPC=-1.409%, P<0.05). The crude and standardized mortality of malignant tumors were higher in men than in women (241.40/105 vs. 133.37/105; 132.66/105 vs. 79.35/105; both P<0.05). There was no obvious trend in the crude mortality of malignant tumors in men (P>0.05), and the standardized mortality showed a tendency towards a decline (AAPC=-3.017%, P<0.05). While there was no obvious trend in the crude and standardized mortality of malignant tumors in women (P>0.05). The crude mortality of malignant tumors showed a tendency towards a decline among residents at ages of 15 to 44 years and 65 years and older (AAPC=-3.933% and -2.413%, both P<0.05). The crude mortality of malignant tumors was higher in men than in women among residents at ages of 0 to 14 years, 45 to 64 years and 65 years and older (all P<0.05). The five most common causes of death included lung cancer, colorectal cancer, liver cancer, gastric cancer and pancreatic cancer, accounting for 66.96% of all malignant tumors. The crude mortality of colorectal cancer from 2017 to 2022 showed a tendency towards a rise (AAPC=2.815%, P<0.05). Conclusions The standardized mortality of malignant tumors showed a tendency towards a decline in Xiaoshan District from 2017 to 2022. Management of malignant tumors should be given a high priority among men at ages of 45 years and older, and lung cancer, colorectal cancer, liver cancer, gastric cancer and pancreatic cancer were leading causes of death.

Objective: To investigate the mortality, probability of premature death and trends due to malignant tumors, cardio-cerebrovascular diseases, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases in Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou City from 2015 to 2021, so as to provide the basis for the formulation of chronic diseases prevention and control strategies. Methods: The deaths of the four diseases in Xiaoshan District from 2015 to 2021 were collected from Zhejiang Provincial Chronic Diseases Surveillance Information Management System. The crude mortality, standardized mortality and probability of premature death were calculated. The trends in mortality and probability of premature death were analyzed using average annual percent change (AAPC), and the attainment of probability of premature death due to the four diseases was evaluated using the targets of probability of premature death control in 2025 and 2030. Results: Totally 36 130 deaths due to the four diseases were reported in Xiaoshan District from 2015 to 2021. The crude mortality and standardized mortality were 445.20/105 and 237.81/105, which appeared a tendency towards a decline (AAPC=-1.427% and -4.051%, both P<0.05), and the probability of premature death decreased from 9.99% to 7.82%, (AAPC=-4.123%, P<0.05). The standardized mortality of malignant tumors, cardio-cerebrovascular diseases and chronic respiratory diseases appeared a tendency towards a decline (AAPC=-3.017%, -4.999%, and -6.024%, all P<0.05), while there was no significant trend in the standardized mortality of diabetes (AAPC=-0.847%, P>0.05). The probability of premature death due to malignant tumors appeared a tendency towards a decline (AAPC=-4.167%, P<0.05), while there was no significant trends seen in the probability of premature death due to diabetes, cardio-cerebrovascular diseases and chronic respiratory diseases (AAPC=0.638%, -5.250% and -2.022%, all P>0.05). The average probability of premature death due to the four diseases decreased by 4.00% each year, and decreased by 6.64% in 2025 and 5.42% in 2030 as predicted, which were both lower than the target values of 7.99% and 6.99%. Conclusions The mortality and probability of premature death due to the four diseases appeared a tendency towards a decline in Xiaoshan District from 2015 to 2021, with the probability of premature death of malignant tumors decreased significantly. It is predicted that the probability of premature death of the four diseases can reach the target in 2025 and 2030.

Objective: To understand the survival status and influencing factors of first-ever stroke patients, so as to provide evidence for improving the quality of life and prognosis of stroke patients. Methods: Demographic information, medical history, smoking history, and alcohol consumption history of newly diagnosed stroke cases first reported in 2017 in Xiaoshan District were collected through the Hangzhou Chronic Disease Surveillance and Management System. Patients were followed up for 5 years, with stroke death as the outcome event. The survival rate was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and factors affecting survival time of first-ever stroke patients were identified using a multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression model. Results: A total of 3 886 patients first-ever stroke patients were included, the cases of cerebral infarction, intracerebral hemorrhage, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and stroke unspecified as to whether it was hemorrhagic or ischemic (unspecified) accounted for 86.93%, 11.45%, 1.06% and 0.57%, respectively. There were 2 047 males (52.68%) and 1 839 females (47.32%), with a mean onset age of (72.01±11.61) years. By the end of the follow-up on December 31, 2022, 906 patients died from stroke, with a median follow-up time of 62.00 (interquartile range, 35.00) months. The 1-year survival rate was 87.35% (95%CI: 86.30%-88.41%), the 3-year survival rate was 82.11% (95%CI: 80.88%-83.34%), and the 5-year survival rate was 76.64% (95%CI: 75.26%-78.02%), respectively. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analysis showed that onset age of ≥75 years (HR=5.543, 95%CI: 3.822-8.039), being treated at township-level hospitals (HR=5.934, 95%CI: 4.027-8.743), history of hypertension (HR=1.566, 95%CI: 1.317-1.863), history of chronic ischemic heart disease (HR=1.611, 95%CI: 1.362-1.906), smoking history (HR=1.455, 95%CI: 1.190-1.778), alcohol consumption history (HR=1.323, 95%CI: 1.067-1.641), stroke subtype of intracerebral hemorrhage (HR=3.442, 95%CI: 2.923-4.053) and unspecified (HR=6.843, 95%CI: 4.353-10.756) were associated with higher mortality risk among first-ever stroke patients. Conclusion The 5-year survival rate of first-ever stroke patients was 76.64%, which was influenced by age of onset, hospital level for diagnosis and treatment, stroke subtype, medical history, smoking and alcohol consumption.