1.Prediction of duloxetine blood concentration in patients with depression based on machine learning
Ming QIAO ; Lu JIN ; Yi ZHU ; Junping HU
China Pharmacy 2025;36(6):752-757
OBJECTIVE To provide medication reference for duloxetine use in clinical settings, particularly for patients with depression in primary medical institutions in Xinjiang that lack therapeutic drug monitoring conditions. METHODS The medical records of 281 depression inpatients taking duloxetine in the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University from January 2022 to December 2023 were retrospectively collected. They were divided into training set (196 cases) and test set (85 cases) in the ratio of 7∶3. Feature selection was performed by encapsulating random forests (RF) with recursive feature elimination. Four machine learning algorithms, namely support vector machine, RF, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and artificial neural network, were used to construct duloxetine blood concentration prediction model. The prediction performance of the models was evaluated and compared by coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE). The feature of the selected optimal model was explained by Shapley additive explanation method, and the importance ranking of the features and the influence on the prediction results of duloxetine blood concentration were determined. RESULTS A total of 29 characteristic variables were selected, including age, ethnicity, body mass index(BMI), etc. XGBoost showed the highest R2 (0.808), and the lowest MAE (7.644) and RMSE (10.808). The ranking of feature importance for predicting the blood concentration of duloxetine was as follows: BMI>age>other 20 feature sets (including liver and kidney function and biochemical indicators)>daily dosage>comorbidities>combination therapy>ethnicity>white blood cell count>hemoglobin>height. CONCLUSIONS XGBoost model possesses the best prediction performance of duloxetine blood concentration; BMI and age have a greater impact on the prediction of duloxetine blood concentration.
2.Design and application of a height measuring instrument for ventricular drainage catheter.
Qingchen ZHAI ; Guanjie CHEN ; Jianwei LI ; Junping LI ; Lu MA
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2025;37(3):294-296
Ventriculostomy drainage is one of the commonly used surgical techniques in neurocritical care, which can relieve intracranial hypertension and facilitate postoperative cerebrospinal fluid and intracranial pressure monitoring. By placing a drainage tube in the ventricle, blood and fluid accumulation within the ventricle are drained out of the brain, reducing intracranial pressure and preventing brain tissue damage. Clinically, the speed of ventriculostomy drainage is often controlled by measuring the height difference between the drainage opening and the plane of the ventricle, ensuring the safe and effective reduction of intracranial pressure, facilitating the implementation of clinical management plans, and preventing complications. However, how to easily, safely, and effectively measure the height difference between the drainage opening and the ventricular plane remains a challenge in nursing management. Currently, clinical practice often uses a tape measure to measure the height of the ventriculostomy drainage, a process that is cumbersome and time-consuming and susceptible to human error, leading to inaccurate measurements. However, the challenge of easily, safely, and effectively detecting the height difference between the drainage opening and the ventricular plane remains a difficult problem in nursing management. To address this issue, the medical and nursing staff of the intensive care unit (ICU) at Zhongda Hospital, Southeast University, jointly designed a novel ventriculostomy drainage height measurement device, which has been granted a national utility model patent (patent number: ZL 2022 2 1400920.9). This device can be easily and securely fixed to an infusion stand. Using a level within the horizontal measuring part and a rotational structure, the vertical measuring part of the device is adjusted to be perpendicular to the ground. After opening the limit clip, the horizontal part is manually guided down to the appropriate height. The front end of the horizontal measuring part is then extended towards the patient's head, and after confirming the position, the limit clip is closed. At this point, the horizontal height difference between the drainage opening and the ventricular plane can be accurately measured. When temporarily finishing the height measurement of the drainage tube, the device can be folded and stored by retracting the horizontal measuring part and rotating components. This measuring device has a simple operation process, which can improve the accuracy and reliability of the drainage height measurement, enhance treatment outcomes and patient safety, reduce the workload of nursing staff, and has certain clinical promotion and practical value.
Humans
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Ventriculostomy/methods*
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Drainage/instrumentation*
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Equipment Design
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Cerebral Ventricles
3.Effects of combined hypoxia and irradiation on mouse bone marrow hematopoietic cells
Xinhai YANG ; Fang CHEN ; Yong QUAN ; Mengjia HU ; Yukai LU ; Naicheng CHEN ; Yang XU ; Song WANG ; Junping WANG
Journal of Army Medical University 2025;47(7):681-690
Objective To determine the effects of hypoxia pre-treatment combined with radiation damage on the hematopoietic cells in the bone marrow of mice.Methods A total of 165 male C57BL/6 mice(10~12 weeks old,weighing 20~25 g)were randomly divided into 7 groups:normal control(Control,n=33),6 Gy irradiation(6-Gy,n=43),7 d hypoxia-6 Gy irradiation(Hy-7 d+6 Gy,n=43),7 Gy irradiation(7 Gy,n=12),7 d hypoxia-7 Gy irradiation(Hy-7 d+7 Gy,n=12),7 Gy continuous hypoxia treatment(Hy-7 d+7 Gy+Hy,n=12),and 6 Gy continuous hypoxia treatment(Hy-7 d+6 Gy+Hy,n=10).The mice of the hypoxia treatment groups were given 7-day hypoxic pretreatment(12%oxygen)in a normobaric hypoxic chamber,while those of the other groups were housed in normoxic condition.After pretreatment,the mice of the irradiation groups were exposed to a single 6 or 7 Gy of whole-body 60Co γ-irradiation in normoxia.The mice of the hypoxia and irradiation groups were kept in hypoxic condition in 24 h post-irradiation followed by being resumed to normoxia,while those of the continuous hypoxia treatment groups were remained in hypoxia.After bone marrow cell suspensions were prepared from the Control,6 Gy,and Hy-7 d+6 Gy groups,bone marrow nucleated cells(BMNCs)were counted via automated cell counter.HE staining was employed to observe pathologic changes in medullary cavity,and flow cytometry was used to assess Lin-Sca1?c-Kit?(LSK)hematopoietic stem/progenitor cells,myeloid progenitors(MPs),and mature T/B/myeloid cells.The mice of the 7 Gy,Hy-7 d+7 Gy,and Hy-7 d+7 Gy+Hy groups were monitored for 30-day survival after hypoxic pretreatment.The dynamic changes in the counts of red blood cells(RBC),white blood cells(WBC)and platelets(PLT),and hemoglobin(HGB)level were observed in the 6 Gy,Hy-7 d+6 Gy,and Hy-7 d+6 Gy+Hy groups with aid of a fully automatic blood analyzer.Single-cell RNA sequencing was performed on bone marrow cell suspension derived from the mice euthanized in 17 d after irradiation from the Control,6 Gy,and Hy-7 d+6 Gy groups.Results ①Compared to the Control group,the 6 Gy group showed significantly reduced BMNCs(P<0.01),dilated bone marrow sinusoids,and erythrocyte extravasation.The Hy-7 d+6 Gy group exhibited higher cellular density and attenuated BMNC loss than the 6 Gy group(P<0.01).②Flow cytometry revealed less LSK,MP,and mature T/B/myeloid cells in the 6 Gy group than the Control group(P<0.05),and the reduced counts of LSK and MP were mitigated in the Hy-7 d+6 Gy group(P<0.01).③The Hy-7 d+7 Gy group demonstrated improved 30-day survival than the 7 Gy group(P<0.01),while continuous hypoxia(Hy-7 d+7 Gy+Hy)failed to enhance the survival.No statistical difference was seen in the survival rate between the 2 groups(P=0.12),though the Hy-7 d+7 Gy group showing higher survival rate.④Routine blood test revealed that the Hy-7 d+6 Gy group showed faster WBC recovery(vs the 6 Gy and Hy-7 d+6 Gy+Hy groups,P<0.05),higher pre-irradiation RBC/HGB levels,and accelerated PLT restoration(P<0.05).⑤Single-cell RNA sequencing indicated that hypoxia pretreatment suppressed the numbers of long-term hematopoietic stem cells/short-term hematopoietic stem cells(LT-HSC/ST-HSC)depletion in the Hy-7 d+6 Gy group when compared with the 6 Gy group,which was consistent with the results of flow cytometry.Pseudotime trajectory aligned the Hy-7 d+6 Gy group,as the Control group,showed enriched undifferentiated LSKs.Differential gene analysis and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes(KEGG)analysis revealed that oxidative phosphorylation pathway was strongly activated in the 6 Gy group,while the Hy-7 d+6 Gy group had enriched in chromatin remodeling and mRNA surveillance pathways.Conclusion Hypoxic preconditioning alleviates radiation-induced bone marrow injury,and post-irradiation normoxia restoration promotes hematopoietic recovery in acute radiation-exposed mice.
4.Risk Prediction Performance of Blood Biomarkers for Bipolar Disorder With Psychotic Symptoms
Zijun NI ; Junping YIN ; Xiaoying WANG ; Yuting ZHOU ; Xian MO ; Lu SUN ; Wei ZHANG
Journal of Sichuan University (Medical Sciences) 2025;56(5):1351-1356
Objective To investigate biological markers associated with psychotic symptoms in patients with bipolar disorder(BD)based on electronic medical records of patients,and to develop an interpretable risk prediction model that supports the identification of high-risk individuals and that facilitates decision-making for providing clinical intervention in a timely manner.Methods A total of 2 352 patients diagnosed with BD and admitted to West China Hospital,Sichuan University were enrolled using the electronic medical records system of the hospital.The participants were divided into two subgroups,the bipolar disorder depression(BDD)group and the bipolar disorder mania(BDM)group.The logistic regression algorithm was used to train and validate the prediction model,and interpretability methods were used to analyze the contribution of each feature to individuals and the effect of the features on specific target prediction decisions.Results The logistic regression model demonstrated robust predictive performance across the BD,BDD,and BDM cohorts,with areas under the curve(AUC)of the receiver operating characteristic curves always exceeding 81.6%.The core predictive features included platelet distribution width(PDW),fibrinogen(FIB),platelet large cell ratio(P-LCR),activated partial thromboplastin time(APTT),prothrombin time(PT),and triglyceride(TG).The logistic regression model exhibited strong interpretability and was combined with nomograms for intuitive risk quantification and individualized prediction.Conclusion The logistic regression model enables rapid and simple screening of BD patients with psychotic symptoms.Distinct patterns of changes observed in blood biomarkers of BDD and BDM subgroups enrich the understanding of the underlying pathophysiological mechanisms and highlight the importance of considering subtypes in the intervention and management of patients.
5.Exploration of Clinical Thoughts for Treatment of Stable Angina with Insomnia under the Guidance of the "Blood-Pulse-Heart-Spirit"
Xinbiao FAN ; Zhipeng YAN ; Xiaofei GENG ; Lu LIAN ; Binbin DING ; Aolin LI ; Junping ZHANG
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2024;65(12):1240-1244
Guided by the concept of "blood-pulse-heart-spirit", it is believed that stable angina combined with insomnia is caused by disturbance of blood vessels, which leads to loss of nourishment for the heart body and heart spirit, so the core treatment principle is to regulate the blood vessels and calm the mind. At the beginning of the disease, it shows as the liver fails to govern the free flow of qi, and disorders qi and blood; during the progress of the disease, it shows as spleen deficiency and phlegm stagnation, phlegm and blood stasis obstructing the vessels; the central mechanism of the disease shows as disturbance of blood vessels and insufficient heart yin. For the pattern of liver depression and blood stasis, pattern of phlegm and blood stasis blocking the vessels, and pattern of heart yin deficiency, it is recommended to treat by Wuzang Shenning Formula (五脏神宁方) to dredge the liver and regulate the vessels, Banxia Houpo Decoction (半夏厚朴汤) plus Gualou Xiebai Banxia Decoction (瓜蒌薤白半夏汤) to dissolve phlegm and regulate the vessels, and Yunpi Tiaoxin Decoction (运脾调心汤) to nourish the yin and regulate the vessels. Throughout the treatment, pattern differentiation and treatment is accompanied by the method of calming the mind with heavy sedatives and nourishing the blood to calm the mind, so as to achieve the purpose of regulating mind and heart together and treating the body and spirit at the same time.
6.Modified Wenshen Yixin Formula (温肾益心方加减) for Coronary Heart Disease Complicated with Hypothyroidism of Spleen-kidney Yang Deficiency:A Prospective Real-world Study of 51 Cases
Aolin LI ; Zhipeng YAN ; Lu LIAN ; Qianqian ZHANG ; Chi ZHANG ; Boyu ZHU ; Lei WEI ; Zhihan YANG ; Junping ZHANG
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2024;65(20):2116-2125
ObjectiveTo observe the clinical efficacy and relative mechanism of the Modified Wenshen Yixin Formula (温肾益心方加减, MWYF) as an auxiliary treatment of coronary heart disease (CHD) complicated with hypothyroidism of spleen-kidney yang deficiency. MethodsA total of 135 CHD patients complicated with hypothyroidism and spleen-kidney yang deficiency were included and divided into control group (67 cases) and experimental group (68 cases) according to the patients' wishes of herbal medicine administration. The control group was given conventional western medicine, while the treatment group was additionally given MWYF, 1 dose per day; both groups were treated for 8 weeks. The traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) syndrome scores, angina scores, SF-36 scores, thyroid function indicators including thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), thyroxine (T4) and triiodothyronine (T3), as well as serum cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP), cyclic guanosine monophosphate (cGMP), monocyte chemoattractant ligand 2 (CCL2), and tumor necrosis factor-related activator protein (CD40L) levels before and after treatment were compared between the two groups. The dosage and reduction and discontinuation rate of thyroid hormone preparations after treatment were compared between the two groups. The effectiveness regarding TCM syndrome and angina pectoris was evaluated, and the safety was assessed. ResultsBias was adjusted by matching on propensity score, and 102 cases were finally included in the statistical analysis, with 51 cases in each group. The total effective rate regarding TCM syndrome [94.12% (48/51) versus 64.71% (33/51)], the total effective rate regarding angina pectoris [80.39% (41/51) versus 62.75% (32/51)], and the reduction and discontinuation rate of thyroid hormone preparation [39.21% (20/51) versus 5.88% (3/51)] were significantly higher in the experimental group than those in the control group (P<0.05 or P<0.01). After treatment, the total TCM syndrome score, individual scores of major symptoms , the major symptoms score, the secondary symptoms score, angina pectoris score, and TSH level were significantly reduced (P<0.01), while all dimensions of SF-36 scores, T4, T3, and cAMP levels significantly increased in both groups (P<0.05 or P<0.01). The dosage of thyroid hormone preparations and the levels of cGMP, CCL2, and CD40L in the experimental group significantly decreased after treatment (P<0.01). When compared between the two groups after treatment, the total TCM syndrome score, the major symptoms score, the scores of individual major symptom (chest tightness, chest pain, fear of cold, cold limbs, waist and kness soreness and weakness), the secondary symptoms score, angina pectoris score, TSH, cGMP, CCL2, and CD40L levels of the experimental group were significantly lower than those of the control group (P<0.05 or P<0.01), while all dimension scores of SF-36, T4, T3, and cAMP levels were significantly higher (P<0.01). A total of three adverse events occurred during treatment, none of which were judged to be related to the interventions of this study. ConclusionMWYF can significantly ameliorate the TCM syndrome, angina pectoris, quality of life and thyroid function in CHD patients complicated with hypothyroidism and spleen-kidney yang deficiency, and can promote the reduction and disconti-nuation of thyroid hormone preparations. The mechanism may be related to the regulation of cAMP/cGMP balance, the regulation of hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid metabolic axis and the reduction of immune inflammation.
7.Mitochondrial Quality Control Affects Diabetic Cardiomyopathy:Based on Theory of Qi Deficiency and Stagnation
Aolin LI ; Lu LIAN ; Xinnong CHEN ; Yingyu XIE ; Zhipeng YAN ; Wenhui CAI ; QianQian ZHANG ; Chi ZHANG ; Junping ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2024;30(8):197-205
With the increasing incidence of diabetes mellitus in recent years, cardiomyopathy caused by diabetes mellitus has aroused wide concern and this disease is characterized by high insidiousness and high mortality. The early pathological changes of diabetic cardiomyopathy (DCM) are mitochondrial structural disorders and loss of myocardial metabolic flexibility. The turbulence of mitochondrial quality control (MQC) is a key mechanism leading to the accumulation of damaged mitochondria and loss of myocardial metabolic flexibility, which, together with elevated levels of oxidative stress and inflammation, trigger changes in myocardial structure and function. Qi deficiency and stagnation is caused by the loss of healthy Qi, and the dysfunction of Qi transformation results in the accumulation of pathogenic Qi, which further triggers injuries. According to the theory of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), DCM is rooted in Qi deficiency of the heart, spleen, and kidney. The dysfunction of Qi transformation leads to the generation and lingering of turbidity, stasis, and toxin in the nutrient-blood and vessels, ultimately damaging the heart. Therefore, Qi deficiency and stagnation is the basic pathologic mechanism of DCM. Mitochondria, similar to Qi in substance and function, are one of the microscopic manifestations of Qi. The role of MQC is consistent with the defense function of Qi. In the case of MQC turbulence, mitochondrial structure and function are impaired. As a result, Qi deficiency gradually emerges and triggers pathological changes, which make it difficult to remove the stagnant pathogenic factor and aggravates the MQC turbulence. Ultimately, DCM occurs. Targeting MQC to treat DCM has become the focus of current research, and TCM has the advantages of acting on multiple targets and pathways. According to the pathogenesis of Qi deficiency and stagnation in DCM and the modern medical understanding of MQC, the treatment should follow the principles of invigorating healthy Qi, tonifying deficiency, and regulating Qi movement. This paper aims to provide ideas for formulating prescriptions and clinical references for the TCM treatment of DCM by targeting MQC.
8.Multicenter evaluation of the diagnostic efficacy of jaundice color card for neonatal hyperbilirubinemia
Guochang XUE ; Huali ZHANG ; Xuexing DING ; Fu XIONG ; Yanhong LIU ; Hui PENG ; Changlin WANG ; Yi ZHAO ; Huili YAN ; Mingxing REN ; Chaoying MA ; Hanming LU ; Yanli LI ; Ruifeng MENG ; Lingjun XIE ; Na CHEN ; Xiufang CHENG ; Jiaojiao WANG ; Xiaohong XIN ; Ruifen WANG ; Qi JIANG ; Yong ZHANG ; Guijuan LIANG ; Yuanzheng LI ; Jianing KANG ; Huimin ZHANG ; Yinying ZHANG ; Yuan YUAN ; Yawen LI ; Yinglin SU ; Junping LIU ; Shengjie DUAN ; Qingsheng LIU ; Jing WEI
Chinese Journal of Pediatrics 2024;62(6):535-541
Objective:To evaluate the diagnostic efficacy and practicality of the Jaundice color card (JCard) as a screening tool for neonatal jaundice.Methods:Following the standards for reporting of diagnostic accuracy studies (STARD) statement, a multicenter prospective study was conducted in 9 hospitals in China from October 2019 to September 2021. A total of 845 newborns who were admitted to the hospital or outpatient department for liver function testing due to their own diseases. The inclusion criteria were a gestational age of ≥35 weeks, a birth weight of ≥2 000 g, and an age of ≤28 days. The neonate′s parents used the JCard to measure jaundice at the neonate′s cheek. Within 2 hours of the JCard measurement, transcutaneous bilirubin (TcB) was measured with a JH20-1B device and total serum bilirubin (TSB) was detected. The Pearson′s correlation analysis, Bland-Altman plots and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used for statistic analysis.Results:Out of the 854 newborns, 445 were male and 409 were female; 46 were born at 35-36 weeks of gestational age and 808 were born at ≥37 weeks of gestational age. Additionally, 432 cases were aged 0-3 days, 236 cases were aged 4-7 days, and 186 cases were aged 8-28 days. The TSB level was (227.4±89.6) μmol/L, with a range of 23.7-717.0 μmol/L. The JCard level was (221.4±77.0) μmol/L and the TcB level was (252.5±76.0) μmol/L. Both the JCard and TcB values showed good correlation ( r=0.77 and 0.80, respectively) and agreements (96.0% (820/854) and 95.2% (813/854) of samples fell within the 95% limits of agreement, respectively) with TSB. The JCard value of 12 had a sensitivity of 0.93 and specificity of 0.75 for identifying a TSB ≥205.2?μmol/L, and a sensitivity of 1.00 and specificity of 0.35 for identifying a TSB ≥342.0?μmol/L. The TcB value of 205.2?μmol/L had a sensitivity of 0.97 and specificity of 0.60 for identifying TSB levels of 205.2 μmol/L, and a sensitivity of 1.00 and specificity of 0.26 for identifying TSB levels of 342.0 μmol/L. The areas under the ROC curve (AUC) of JCard for identifying TSB levels of 153.9, 205.2, 256.5, and 342.0 μmol/L were 0.96, 0.92, 0.83, and 0.83, respectively. The AUC of TcB were 0.94, 0.91, 0.86, and 0.87, respectively. There were both no significant differences between the AUC of JCard and TcB in identifying TSB levels of 153.9 and 205.2 μmol/L (both P>0.05). However, the AUC of JCard were both lower than those of TcB in identifying TSB levels of 256.5 and 342.0 μmol/L (both P<0.05). Conclusions:JCard can be used to classify different levels of bilirubin, but its diagnostic efficacy decreases with increasing bilirubin levels. When TSB level are ≤205.2 μmol/L, its diagnostic efficacy is equivalent to that of the JH20-1B. To prevent the misdiagnosis of severe jaundice, it is recommended that parents use a low JCard score, such as 12, to identify severe hyperbilirubinemia (TSB ≥342.0 μmol/L).
9.Diagnostic value of acid indigocarmine mixture sandwich staining combined with flexile spectral imaging color enhancement colonoscopy Pit pattern classification for colorectal lesions
Junping LU ; Yuxi LI ; Qiuxian LIU ; Shuming LI ; Aihua WU ; Zhaofu QU
China Journal of Endoscopy 2024;30(9):61-70
Objective To explore the diagnostic value of acetic acid indigocarmine mixture(AIM)sandwich staining combined with flexile spectral imaging color enhancement(FICE)technology for colonoscopic Pit pattern classification for colorectal lesions.Methods 100 patients with colorectal lesions from June 2022 to October 2023 were selected as the research subjects,and 222 lesions;Patients were examined using conventional endoscopy,FICE,AIM sandwich staining+FICE,and the detection status and pathological type of Pit pattern classification were recorded.Calculate the sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value(PPV),negative predictive value(NPV),and accuracy of Pit pattern classification diagnosis under different modes.Kappa was used to evaluate the consistency between Pit pattern classification and pathological examination under different modes.Evaluate diagnostic effectiveness using receiver operator characteristic curve(ROC curve).Results Compared with ordinary endoscopy(74.32%),FICE technology(92.34%)and AIM staining+FICE(97.30%)detected more lesions that matched the pathological results through Pit pattern classification,and AIM sandwich staining+FICE detected more than FICE,the differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).Compared with ordinary endoscopy,the diagnostic accuracy of FICE and AIM staining+FICE for colorectal carcinoma lesions were higher,and AIM sandwich staining+FICE higher than FICE,the differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).Compared with ordinary endoscopy,the diagnostic accuracy of FICE and AIM sandwich staining+FICE for early colorectal cancer were higher,the differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).The area under the curve(AUC)predicted by ordinary endoscopy,FICE and AIM sandwich staining+FICE for colorectal carcinoma lesions were 0.815(95%CI:0.711~0.859),0.881(95%CI:0.752~0.904),and 0.933(95%CI:0.793~0.961),respectively;The AUC predicted by ordinary endoscopy,FICE and AIM sandwich staining+FICE for early colorectal cancer were 0.850(95%CI:0.720~0.866),0.938(95%CI:0.764~0.951),and 0.947(95%CI:0.803~0.972),respectively.For predicting colorectal carcinoma lesions and early colorectal cancer,the Youden index of AIM staining+FICE technology was the highest,with values of 0.955 and 0.968,respectively.Conclusion Under AIM sandwich staining+FICE,Pit pattern classification can detect more carcinoma lesions and early colorectal cancer,with high diagnostic accuracy and effective improvement of endoscopic diagnosis and treatment quality.
10.Prediction of invasiveness in follicular variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma using nomograms based on ultrasonic features
YuXin ZHENG ; Yajiao ZHANG ; Liyu CHEN ; Kefeng LU ; Jiangyan LOU ; Junping LIU ; Dong XU
Chinese Journal of Ultrasonography 2024;33(9):800-806
Objective:To explore the relationship between ultrasound characteristics and invasiveness in the follicular variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma (FVPTC), and to integrate multiple ultrasound parameters for visual assessment of predictive outcomes by using Nomogram.Methods:A total of 312 FVPTC patients who were pathologically confirmed through surgery in Zhejiang Cancer Hospital and Zhejiang Provincial People′s Hospital from January 2013 to December 2023 were retrospectively collected.Based on defined criteria, FVPTC patients were categorized into high-invasion and low-invasion groups. The dataset was divided into a training set and a validation set in a ratio of 7 to 3. Clinical information and ultrasound feature parameters were collected. Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were performed on the training set. A predictive model for FVPTC invasiveness was constructed based on ultrasound features. The model′s discriminative ability and calibration were evaluated in the validation set, and a nomogram was generated.Results:The training set included a total of 218 patients with FVPTC, among which 131 were classified as high invasive.The validation set consisted of 94 patients, with 53 cases of high invasive FVPTC patients. Multivariate logistic regression analysis on the training set revealed that tumor multifocality ( OR=6.505, P=0.016), hypoechoic ( OR=3.235, P=0.103), shape ( OR=0.521, P=0.049), and microcalcifications ( OR=2.479, P=0.004) were independent influencing factors for predicting invasiveness in FVPTC. In the training set, the area under the curve (AUC) of the ultrasound predictive model was 0.704 (95% CI=0.634-0.771), and in the validation set, the AUC was 0.650 (95% CI=0.531-0.770), indicated good discriminative ability.The calibration curve showed good alignment with the ideal curve, demonstrating favorable calibration performance. Conclusions:Ultrasound features provide valuable information for assessing the invasiveness of FVPTC, and the model constructed by combining ultrasound features demonstrates good predictive efficacy for the invasiveness of FVPTC.

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