1.Clinical Prediction Models Based on Traditional Methods and Machine Learning for Predicting First Stroke: Status and Prospects
Zijiao ZHANG ; Shunjing DING ; Di ZHAO ; Jun LIANG ; Jianbo LEI
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2025;16(2):292-299
Stroke ranks as the third leading cause of death and the fourth leading cause of disability worldwide. Its high disability rate and prolonged recovery period not only severely impact patients' quality of life but also impose a significant burden on families and society. Primary prevention is the cornerstone of stroke control, as early intervention on risk factors can effectively reduce its incidence. Therefore, the development of predictive models for first-ever stroke risk holds substantial clinical value. In recent years, advancements in big data and artificial intelligence technologies have opened new avenues for stroke risk prediction. This article reviews the current research status of traditional methods and machine learning models in predicting first-ever stroke risk and outlines future development trends from three perspectives: First, emphasis should be placed on technological innovation by incorporating advanced algorithms such as deep learning and large models to further enhance the accuracy of predictive models. Second, there is a need to diversify data types and optimize model architectures to construct more comprehensive and precise predictive models. Lastly, particular attention should be given to the clinical validation of models in real-world settings. This not only enhances the robustness and generalizability of the models but also promotes physicians' understanding of predictive models, which is crucial for their application and dissemination.
2.Carvedilol to prevent hepatic decompensation of cirrhosis in patients with clinically significant portal hypertension stratified by new non-invasive model (CHESS2306)
Chuan LIU ; Hong YOU ; Qing-Lei ZENG ; Yu Jun WONG ; Bingqiong WANG ; Ivica GRGUREVIC ; Chenghai LIU ; Hyung Joon YIM ; Wei GOU ; Bingtian DONG ; Shenghong JU ; Yanan GUO ; Qian YU ; Masashi HIROOKA ; Hirayuki ENOMOTO ; Amr Shaaban HANAFY ; Zhujun CAO ; Xiemin DONG ; Jing LV ; Tae Hyung KIM ; Yohei KOIZUMI ; Yoichi HIASA ; Takashi NISHIMURA ; Hiroko IIJIMA ; Chuanjun XU ; Erhei DAI ; Xiaoling LAN ; Changxiang LAI ; Shirong LIU ; Fang WANG ; Ying GUO ; Jiaojian LV ; Liting ZHANG ; Yuqing WANG ; Qing XIE ; Chuxiao SHAO ; Zhensheng LIU ; Federico RAVAIOLI ; Antonio COLECCHIA ; Jie LI ; Gao-Jun TENG ; Xiaolong QI
Clinical and Molecular Hepatology 2025;31(1):105-118
Background:
s/Aims: Non-invasive models stratifying clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) are limited. Herein, we developed a new non-invasive model for predicting CSPH in patients with compensated cirrhosis and investigated whether carvedilol can prevent hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified using the new model.
Methods:
Non-invasive risk factors of CSPH were identified via systematic review and meta-analysis of studies involving patients with hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). A new non-invasive model was validated for various performance aspects in three cohorts, i.e., a multicenter HVPG cohort, a follow-up cohort, and a carvediloltreating cohort.
Results:
In the meta-analysis with six studies (n=819), liver stiffness measurement and platelet count were identified as independent risk factors for CSPH and were used to develop the new “CSPH risk” model. In the HVPG cohort (n=151), the new model accurately predicted CSPH with cutoff values of 0 and –0.68 for ruling in and out CSPH, respectively. In the follow-up cohort (n=1,102), the cumulative incidences of decompensation events significantly differed using the cutoff values of <–0.68 (low-risk), –0.68 to 0 (medium-risk), and >0 (high-risk). In the carvediloltreated cohort, patients with high-risk CSPH treated with carvedilol (n=81) had lower rates of decompensation events than non-selective beta-blockers untreated patients with high-risk CSPH (n=613 before propensity score matching [PSM], n=162 after PSM).
Conclusions
Treatment with carvedilol significantly reduces the risk of hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified by the new model.
3.Carvedilol to prevent hepatic decompensation of cirrhosis in patients with clinically significant portal hypertension stratified by new non-invasive model (CHESS2306)
Chuan LIU ; Hong YOU ; Qing-Lei ZENG ; Yu Jun WONG ; Bingqiong WANG ; Ivica GRGUREVIC ; Chenghai LIU ; Hyung Joon YIM ; Wei GOU ; Bingtian DONG ; Shenghong JU ; Yanan GUO ; Qian YU ; Masashi HIROOKA ; Hirayuki ENOMOTO ; Amr Shaaban HANAFY ; Zhujun CAO ; Xiemin DONG ; Jing LV ; Tae Hyung KIM ; Yohei KOIZUMI ; Yoichi HIASA ; Takashi NISHIMURA ; Hiroko IIJIMA ; Chuanjun XU ; Erhei DAI ; Xiaoling LAN ; Changxiang LAI ; Shirong LIU ; Fang WANG ; Ying GUO ; Jiaojian LV ; Liting ZHANG ; Yuqing WANG ; Qing XIE ; Chuxiao SHAO ; Zhensheng LIU ; Federico RAVAIOLI ; Antonio COLECCHIA ; Jie LI ; Gao-Jun TENG ; Xiaolong QI
Clinical and Molecular Hepatology 2025;31(1):105-118
Background:
s/Aims: Non-invasive models stratifying clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) are limited. Herein, we developed a new non-invasive model for predicting CSPH in patients with compensated cirrhosis and investigated whether carvedilol can prevent hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified using the new model.
Methods:
Non-invasive risk factors of CSPH were identified via systematic review and meta-analysis of studies involving patients with hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). A new non-invasive model was validated for various performance aspects in three cohorts, i.e., a multicenter HVPG cohort, a follow-up cohort, and a carvediloltreating cohort.
Results:
In the meta-analysis with six studies (n=819), liver stiffness measurement and platelet count were identified as independent risk factors for CSPH and were used to develop the new “CSPH risk” model. In the HVPG cohort (n=151), the new model accurately predicted CSPH with cutoff values of 0 and –0.68 for ruling in and out CSPH, respectively. In the follow-up cohort (n=1,102), the cumulative incidences of decompensation events significantly differed using the cutoff values of <–0.68 (low-risk), –0.68 to 0 (medium-risk), and >0 (high-risk). In the carvediloltreated cohort, patients with high-risk CSPH treated with carvedilol (n=81) had lower rates of decompensation events than non-selective beta-blockers untreated patients with high-risk CSPH (n=613 before propensity score matching [PSM], n=162 after PSM).
Conclusions
Treatment with carvedilol significantly reduces the risk of hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified by the new model.
4.Carvedilol to prevent hepatic decompensation of cirrhosis in patients with clinically significant portal hypertension stratified by new non-invasive model (CHESS2306)
Chuan LIU ; Hong YOU ; Qing-Lei ZENG ; Yu Jun WONG ; Bingqiong WANG ; Ivica GRGUREVIC ; Chenghai LIU ; Hyung Joon YIM ; Wei GOU ; Bingtian DONG ; Shenghong JU ; Yanan GUO ; Qian YU ; Masashi HIROOKA ; Hirayuki ENOMOTO ; Amr Shaaban HANAFY ; Zhujun CAO ; Xiemin DONG ; Jing LV ; Tae Hyung KIM ; Yohei KOIZUMI ; Yoichi HIASA ; Takashi NISHIMURA ; Hiroko IIJIMA ; Chuanjun XU ; Erhei DAI ; Xiaoling LAN ; Changxiang LAI ; Shirong LIU ; Fang WANG ; Ying GUO ; Jiaojian LV ; Liting ZHANG ; Yuqing WANG ; Qing XIE ; Chuxiao SHAO ; Zhensheng LIU ; Federico RAVAIOLI ; Antonio COLECCHIA ; Jie LI ; Gao-Jun TENG ; Xiaolong QI
Clinical and Molecular Hepatology 2025;31(1):105-118
Background:
s/Aims: Non-invasive models stratifying clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) are limited. Herein, we developed a new non-invasive model for predicting CSPH in patients with compensated cirrhosis and investigated whether carvedilol can prevent hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified using the new model.
Methods:
Non-invasive risk factors of CSPH were identified via systematic review and meta-analysis of studies involving patients with hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). A new non-invasive model was validated for various performance aspects in three cohorts, i.e., a multicenter HVPG cohort, a follow-up cohort, and a carvediloltreating cohort.
Results:
In the meta-analysis with six studies (n=819), liver stiffness measurement and platelet count were identified as independent risk factors for CSPH and were used to develop the new “CSPH risk” model. In the HVPG cohort (n=151), the new model accurately predicted CSPH with cutoff values of 0 and –0.68 for ruling in and out CSPH, respectively. In the follow-up cohort (n=1,102), the cumulative incidences of decompensation events significantly differed using the cutoff values of <–0.68 (low-risk), –0.68 to 0 (medium-risk), and >0 (high-risk). In the carvediloltreated cohort, patients with high-risk CSPH treated with carvedilol (n=81) had lower rates of decompensation events than non-selective beta-blockers untreated patients with high-risk CSPH (n=613 before propensity score matching [PSM], n=162 after PSM).
Conclusions
Treatment with carvedilol significantly reduces the risk of hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified by the new model.
5.Research progress on molecular mechanism underlying neuropsychiatric diseases involving NMDA receptor and α2 adrenergic receptor
Wen-Xin ZHANG ; Dong-Yu ZHOU ; Yi HAN ; Ran JI ; Lin AI ; An XIE ; Xiao-Jing ZHAI ; Jun-Li CAO ; Hong-Xing ZHANG
Chinese Pharmacological Bulletin 2024;40(12):2206-2212
Glutamate,norepinephrine,and their receptors com-prise the glutamatergic and norepinephrine systems,which mu-tually affect each other and play essential roles in mediating vari-ous neuropsychiatric diseases.This paper reviews the functions of N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor(NMDA-R)and α2-adrenergic receptor(α2-AR)and their functional crosstalk at the molecular level in brain in common neuropsychiatric diseases,which would benefit our understanding of neuropathophysiology of psychiatric diseases,drug development and optimization of clinical neuro-psychopharmacology.
6.Curative effect analysis of anterior cervical discectomy and fusion in patients with cervical spondylosis of vertebral artery type
Yi-Xiang AI ; Jian-Tao LIU ; Ding-Jun HAO ; Xi GONG ; Yi-Han ZHU ; Xing-Yuan LI ; Xi-Wei ZHANG ; Kao WANG ; Jia-Jun SUN ; Shu-Yuan ZHANG
China Journal of Orthopaedics and Traumatology 2024;37(7):670-675
Objective To investigate the clinical effect of anterior cervical discectomy and fusion(ACDF)in the treatment of cervical spondylosis of vertebral artery type(CSA).Methods The clinical data of 42 patients with CSA from January 2020 to January 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.There were 25 males and 17 females,aged from 30 to 74 years old with an average of(53.9±11.0)years old.There were 18 cases with single-segment lesions,17 cases with two-segment lesions,and 7 cases with three-segment lesions.The American Academy of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery's Hearing and Balance Committee score(CHE),the Neck Disability Index(NDI)and the cervical curvature Cobb angle were recorded before surgery and after surgery at 6 months.Results All 42 ACDF patients were followed up for 6 to 30 months with an average of(14.0±5.2)months.The operative time ranged from 95 to 220 min with an average of(160.38±36.77)min,the intraoperative blood loss ranged from 30 to 85 ml with an average of(53.60±18.98)ml.Tow patients had mild postoperative dysphagia,which improved with symptomatic treatment such as nebulized inhalation.CHE score decreased from(4.05±0.96)preoperatively to(2.40±0.70)at 6 months postoperatively(t=12.97,P<0.05).The number of improved vertigo at 6 months postoperatively was 38,with an im-provement rate of 90.5%.NDI score was reduced from(34.43±8.04)preoperatively to(20.76±3.91)at 6 months postopera-tively(t=1 1.83,P<0.05).The cervical curvature Cobb angle improved from(8.04±6.70)° preoperatively to(12.42±5.23)° at 6 months postoperatively(t=-15.96,P<0.05).Conclusion The ACDF procedure has outstanding clinical efficacy in treating CSA.The operation can rapidly relieve patients'episodic vertigo symptoms by relieving bony compression and reconstructing cervical curvature.However,it is necessary to strictly grasp the indications for surgery and clarify the causes of vertigo in pa-tients,and ACDF surgery is recommended for CSA patients for whom conservative treatment is ineffective.
7.Genetic diversity of GⅡ genogroup noroviruses linked to clustered infections in Northeast Chongqing,2021-2022
Zhong-Kai LANG ; Ai-Ping CHEN ; Heng-Qin WANG ; Yu-Lu GAN ; Yong-Jun ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Zoonoses 2024;40(5):448-453
Norovirus is the global leading cause of epidemic and endemic acute gastroenteritis in people of all ages.To inves-tigate the genetic diversity of GⅡ genogroup noroviruses linked to clustered infections in northeast Chongqing,we collected anal swabs or environmental smears from 11 norovirus outbreaks during 2021-2022.Norovirus RNA was detected by quantitative real-time PCR(qRT-PCR),and partial viral RdRp/capsid genes were amplified by reverse transcription PCR(RT-PCR)and sequenced.Among samples from 11 outbreaks in 4 districts and counties,55 strains of GⅡ genogroup norovirus were detected.Six genotypes were identified with an online norovirus genotyping tool(http://www.rivm.nl/mpf/norovirus/typingtool).Genotype GⅡ.17[P17]was associated with four outbreaks;the co-circulating GⅡ.17[P17]and GⅡ.1[P16]caused another out-break;GⅡ.6[P7]and GⅡ.8[P8]respectively were linked to two outbreaks;and GⅡ.3[P12]and GⅡ.2[P16]respectively ac-counted for one outbreak.Phylogenetic analysis also indicated that 55 GⅡ genogroup strains formed five clusters,with norovir-uses of identical genotypes from diverse events belonging to the same cluster,and that genetically distinct genotypes from di-verse events belonged to different clusters.Therefore,our results revealed that multiple genotypes associated with norovirus outbreaks were circulating in northeast Chongqing,and GⅡ.17[P17]was the predominant genotype linked to these out-breaks during 2021-2022.Most norovirus outbreak events were caused by single sources,and genetic relationships were demonstrated among noroviruses of identical genotypes from diverse events.
8.Recent advances and challenges regarding epigenetic modification in HIV infection
Ai-Ping CHEN ; Lian-Gui FENG ; Yong-Jun ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Zoonoses 2024;40(6):556-563
The establishment and maintenance of latent cellular reservoirs of human immunodeficiency virus(HIV)within days after infection remains a major obstacle to achieving functional HIV cure.Epigenetics pertains to the regulation of gene ex-pression through means beyond mutations in DNA sequences.Research on epigenetic modifications in recent decades has facili-tated in-depth understanding of HIV pathogenesis and ongoing AIDS therapy strategies.This review briefly introduces princi-ples of epigenetics,and summarizes current epigenetic findings observed during HIV infection,particularly regarding the roles of epigenetic mechanisms including DNA methylation,histone modification,RNA modification,and non-coding RNAs in the processes of viral latency and formation of reservoirs.In addition,the implications and challenges of these epigenetic regulatory mechanisms in functional AIDS cure strategies are discussed.This review is aimed at encouraging more research groups to focus on epigenetic studies in HIV-infected populations,to develop more therapeutic drugs based on epigenetics,and to propose more rational and feasible functional AIDS cure strategies.
9.Association between hemoglobin variability and risk of all-cause death and cardiovascular death in peritoneal dialysis patients
Shuting HUANG ; Jun AI ; Zhihao HUO ; Lu ZHU ; Nirong GONG ; Xiaohong ZHONG ; Yaozhong KONG ; Dehui LIU ; Xianrui DOU ; Guangqing ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Nephrology 2024;40(8):611-618
Objective:To explore the relationship between hemoglobin variability (Hb-var) and risk of all-cause death and cardiovascular death in patients with peritoneal dialysis (PD), and to provide basis for reducing the risk of death in PD patients.Methods:It was a multicenter retrospective cohort study. The clinical data of regular PD patients from Nanfang Hospital of Southern Medical University, Shunde Hospital of Southern Medical University, Foshan First People's Hospital and Ganzhou People's Hospital from July 1, 2008 to December 31, 2019 were collected. Hb-var was calculated based on hemoglobin at baseline before PD and in the first year after PD. The patients were divided into low Hb-var group, moderate Hb-var group and high Hb-var group according to the tertiles of first year Hb-var, and the differences of baseline clinical data among three groups were compared. Follow-up endpoints included death, transfer to hemodialysis, transfer to kidney transplantation, transfer to other centers, loss of follow-up, or on December 31, 2021. Cox regression analysis model was used to analyze the association of the first-year Hb-var with all-cause death and cardiovascular death. Fine-Gray competitive risk regression model was used to evaluate the impact of competitive events on mortality risk.Results:A total of 1 562 patients with PD were included in the study, aged (47.6±13.8) years old, with 821 males (52.6%) and baseline hemoglobin of 81 (69, 94) g/L. Hb-var in the first year of PD was 26.6 (16.7, 40.3) g/L. There were statistically significant differences in age, body mass index, serum albumin, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, serum calcium, serum phosphorus, intact parathyroid hormone and the proportion of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors among low Hb-var group (<20.0 g/L), moderate Hb-var group (20.0-35.5 g/L) and high Hb-var group (≥35.5 g/L, all P<0.05). The follow-up time was 33 (19, 51) months, and 208 patients (13.3%) died, among which 111 patients (53.4%) died of cardiovascular death. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the higher Hb-var in the first year, the lower the risk of all-cause death ( HR=0.98, 95% CI 0.97-0.99, P=0.018) and cardiovascular death ( HR=0.98, 95% CI 0.97-0.99, P=0.041) in PD patients. Compared with low Hb-var group, the risk of all-cause death ( HR=0.56, 95% CI 0.37-0.82, P=0.003) and cardiovascular death ( HR=0.54, 95% CI 0.31-0.95, P=0.032) was lowest in the high Hb-var group. The competitive risk regression model analysis showed that Hb-var in the first year was still negatively correlated with the risk of all-cause death ( HR=0.98, 95% CI 0.97-0.99, P=0.041) and cardiovascular death ( HR=0.98, 95% CI 0.97-0.99, P=0.039). Conclusion:High Hb-var in the first year is associated with low risk of all-cause death and cardiovascular death in PD patients with severe anemia at baseline.
10.Economic toxicity studies in patients with head and neck cancer:a scoping review
Ping XU ; Miaomiao ZHANG ; Rong YAN ; Kai JIANG ; Wenhui LIU ; Jun′ai XIANG
Chinese Journal of Practical Nursing 2024;40(30):2394-2401
Objective:To understand the status, evaluation methods and risk factors of economic toxicity in patients with head and neck cancer, in order to provide reference for the construction of follow-up intervention programs.Methods:This scoping review was conducted under the Joanna Briggs Institute in Australia guidelines. Relevant studies were searched in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Scopus, CINAHL, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang Database, VIP Database and Chinese Biomedical Literature Database. Chinese and English literature was screened and summarized from inception to September 21, 2023.Results:A total of 14 articles were included, and the economic toxicity of patients with head and neck cancer was more serious.The evaluation methods were mainly divided into scale evaluation and database data calculation. The risk factors of economic toxicity in patients with head and neck cancer included three aspects: demographic factors such as young age, low education and low income; disease and treatment-related factors such as tumor location in larynx/hypopharynx, current/past use of tube feeding, advanced tumor/distant metastasis; social support factors such as insufficient social security, and so on.Conclusions:Future studies should pay more attention to economic toxicity in patients with head and neck cancer, standardize the selection of assessment tools to reduce heterogeneity, and develop individualized intervention measures for the risk factors of economic toxicity in patients with head and neck cancer, in order to reduce the occurrence of economic toxicity in patients with head and neck cancer.

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