Objective To investigate the prognosis of middle-aged and elderly patients with aspiration pneumonia and related influencing factors in integrated medical and elderly care institutions. Methods A total of 604 elderly patients with aspiration pneumonia were selected from integrated medical and elderly care institutions from January 2016 to December 2020. The prognosis of the patients was counted, and the prognostic factors were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression equations. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the curve (AUC) were used to analyze the predictive value of logistic regression model for the prognosis of elderly patients with aspiration pneumonia. Results Univariate analysis showed that Alzheimer's disease, severe pneumonia, ability of daily living (ADL), and the number of rescues were related to the prognosis of elderly patients with aspiration pneumonia (P<0.05). Logistic regression model showed that the death risk of patients with Alzheimer's disease was 2.883 times higher than that of patients without Alzheimer's disease, the death risk of patients with severe pneumonia was 3.292 times higher than that of patients without severe pneumonia, the death risk of patients with severe dependence in ADL was 3.719 times higher than that of patients with mild dependence, the death risk of patients with moderate dependence in ADL was 2.558 times higher than that of patients with mild dependence, and the death risk of patients with rescue times ≥ 2 times was 2,922 times higher than that of patients without rescue times (P < 0.05). Logistic regression equation: logistic (P=-8.264+2.883)×Alzheimer disease ≥60 years old + 3.292×severe pneumonia + 3.719×severe dependence in ADL+2.558×moderate dependence in ADL +2.922× number of rescues. The predicted prognosis AUC of elderly aspiration pneumonia was 0.907 (95%CI: 0.848-0.966). When logistic(P>12.97), the predictive value was the best, with the predictive sensitivity being 83.87%, and the specificity being 84.15%. Conclusion Alzheimer&#39;s disease, severe pneumonia, moderate and severe dependence in the ability of daily living and rescue times ≥ 2 are related to the prognosis of middle-aged and elderly patients with aspiration pneumonia in the integrated medical and elderly care institutions, which can be used as a prognostic plan for clinical treatment and nursing management. At the same time strengthening the intervention of patients with the above characteristics will help to promote the improvement of prognosis.

[摘 要] 目的：根据胃癌患者术前中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值（NLR）、血小板与淋巴细胞比值（PLR）、淋巴细胞与单核细胞比值（LMR）的表达水平构建炎症反应评分（IRS）系统，分析IRS对胃癌患者术后预后的影响并构建列线图预测模型。方法: 选取2016年1月至2020年1月宜春市人民医院普外科收治的211例胃癌患者的临床资料，根据随访成功的198例患者术后3年生存状态分为死亡组（n=93）和生存组（n=105）。比较两组患者的一般临床资料，多因素COX回归风险模型分析影响胃癌患者预后的独立风险因素，R语言rms包构建列线图预测模型。结果: 两组胃癌患者肿瘤最大直径、病理分期、T分期、分化程度、神经侵犯、脉管侵犯、NLR、PLR、LMR比较差异均有统计学意义（均P<0.05）。依据NLP、PLR、LMR-IRS（NPL-IRS）构建标准，不同分值的胃癌患者OS率表现出一定的等级趋势差异（χ2=61.129，P<0.01）。病理分期Ⅲ期、分化程度低、脉管侵犯、NPL-IRS>1分是影响胃癌患者预后的独立危险因素（P<0.05）。决策曲线分析显示，风险阈值>0.16时，此预测模型可以提供显著额外的临床净收益。结论: 基于病理分期Ⅲ期、分化程度低、脉管侵犯、NPL-IRS>1分构建的列线图预测模型可以为胃癌患者预后评估提供重要的策略指导。